11-01-2018, 02:46 PM | #1 | ||
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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2018 Election Contest
These are usually fun. Simple rules. Pick each of the following races. Entries are due by 11/3 at 11:59pm EST. For each race, I listed the incumbent party first.
Senate (3 pts each) AZ: McSally (R) or Sinema (D) FL: Nelson (D) or Scott (R) IN: Donnelly (D) or Braun (R) MI: Stabenow (D) or James (R) MO: McCaskill (D) or Hawley (R) MT: Tester (D) or Rosendale (R) ND: Heitkamp (D) or Cramer (R) NV: Heller (R) or Rosen (D) OH: Brown (D) or Renacci (R) TN: Blackburn (R) or Bredesen (D) TX: Cruz (R) or O'Rourke (D) WV: Manchin (D) or Morrisey (R) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Dunleavy (R) or Begich (D) CT: Lamont (D) or Stefanonwski (R) FL: Desantis (R) or Gillum (D) GA: Kemp (R) or Abrams (D) KS: Kobach (R) or Kelly (D) NV: Laxalt (R) or Sisolak (D) OH: Dewine (R) or Cordray (D) WI: Walker (R) or Evers (D) House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off) How many seats will Dems gain? (Put negative if you think GOP will gain.)
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11-01-2018, 02:59 PM | #2 |
Hall Of Famer
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Are these all well-contested seats only in the Senate and governor's races, or all of them? If it's the latter, CA is also electing a new governor.
As a Californian, I'm fine with either candidate, so long as it's not Jerry Brown anymore.
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11-01-2018, 03:03 PM | #3 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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Quote:
I picked the closest/most notable races. Newsom is going to win CA by double digits.
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11-01-2018, 03:07 PM | #4 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
True on Newsom. Makes sense. What's the fun in picking gimmes? I'll give it a shot.
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11-01-2018, 04:56 PM | #5 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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My picks...
Senate (3 pts each) AZ: Sinema (D) FL: Nelson (D) IN: Donnelly (D) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: McCaskill (D) MT: Tester (D) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Rosen (D) OH: Brown (D) TN: Blackburn (R) TX: Cruz (R) WV: Manchin (D) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Dunleavy (R) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Gillum (D) GA: Kemp (R) KS: Kobach (R) NV: Laxalt (R) OH: Cordray (D) WI: Evers (D) House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off): +45
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11-01-2018, 07:05 PM | #6 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
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Senate (3 pts each)
AZ: Sinema (D) FL: Nelson (D) IN: Donnelly (D) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: Hawley (R) MT: Tester (D) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Rosen (D) OH: Brown (D) TN: Blackburn (R) TX: O'Rourke (D) WV: Manchin (D) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Dunleavy (R) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Gillum (D) GA: Abrams (D) KS: Kobach (R) NV: Sisolak (D) OH: Dewine (R) WI: Evers (D) House: Democrats +43 seats |
11-01-2018, 09:06 PM | #7 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Pacific
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AZ: McSally (R)
FL: Scott (R) IN: Donnelly (D) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: McCaskill (D) MT: Rosendale (R) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Rosen (D) OH: Brown (D) TN: Blackburn (R) TX: Cruz (R) WV: Morrisey (R) AK:Begich (D) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Desantis (R) GA: Kemp (R) KS: Kelly (D) NV: Sisolak (D) OH: Dewine (R) WI: Walker (R) + 15 for the dems
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11-01-2018, 10:07 PM | #8 |
SI Games
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Melbourne, FL
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Senate (3 pts each)
AZ: McSally (R) FL: Nelson (D) IN: Braun (R) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: Hawley (R) MT: Rosendale (R) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Rosen (D) OH: Brown (D) TN: Blackburn (R) TX: O'Rourke (D) WV: Morrisey (R) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Dunleavy (R) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Gillum (D) GA: Kemp (R) KS: Kobach (R) NV: Laxalt (R) OH: Cordray (D) WI: Walker (R) House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off) How many seats will Dems gain? (Put negative if you think GOP will gain.) +25 Last edited by Marc Vaughan : 11-01-2018 at 10:08 PM. |
11-02-2018, 06:27 AM | #9 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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Senate (3 pts each)
AZ: Sinema (D) FL: Nelson (D) IN: Donnelly (D) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: Hawley (R) MT: Tester (D) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Heller (R) OH: Brown (D) TN: Blackburn (R) TX: O'Rourke (D) WV: Manchin (D) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Dunleavy (R) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Gillum (D) GA: Kemp (R) KS: Kobach (R) NV: Laxalt (R) OH: Cordray (D) WI: Evers (D) House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off) Dems +30
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11-02-2018, 09:41 AM | #10 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
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These are mostly wishful thinking from me rather than studied intelligent thought, but here goes:
Senate (3 pts each) AZ: Sinema (D) FL: Nelson (D) IN: Donnelly (D) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: McCaskill (D) MT: Rosendale (R) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Rosen (D) OH: Brown (D) TN: Blackburn (R) TX: O'Rourke (D) WV: Manchin (D) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Dunleavy (R) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Gillum (D) GA: Abrams (D) KS: Kelly (D) NV: Laxalt (R) OH: Cordray (D) WI: Evers (D) House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off) How many seats will Dems gain? (Put negative if you think GOP will gain.) Dems +33 I'm okay if I'm wrong on all the rest if I get these three correct-Cruz, Kobach, and Walker all lose. Thanks for running this contest
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11-05-2018, 02:34 PM | #11 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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bumping this
Ballots due by midnight.
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11-05-2018, 02:45 PM | #12 |
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Senate (3 pts each)
AZ: Sinema (D) FL: Nelson (D) IN: Braun (R) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: McCaskill (D) MT: Tester (D) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Rosen (D) OH: Brown (D) TN: Bredesen (D) TX: Cruz (R) WV: Manchin (D) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Begich (D) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Gillum (D) GA: Kemp (R) KS: Kobach (R) NV: Laxalt (R) OH: Cordray (D) WI: Evers (D) House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off) Dems +30
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11-05-2018, 05:13 PM | #13 |
Coordinator
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What the hell:
Senate (3 pts each) AZ: Sinema (D) FL: Nelson (D) IN: Donnelly (D) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: McCaskill (D) MT: Tester (D) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Rosen (D) OH: Brown (D) TN: Blackburn (R) TX: Cruz (R) WV: Manchin (D) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Dunleavy (R) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Gillum (D) GA: Kemp (R) -- but runoff in December KS: Kobach (R) NV: Laxalt (R) OH: Cordray (D) WI: Evers (D) House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off) How many seats will Dems gain? (Put negative if you think GOP will gain.) Dems +39 seats
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11-05-2018, 06:17 PM | #14 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Concord, MA/UMass
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Senate (3 pts each)
AZ: McSally (R) FL: Nelson (D) IN: Donnelly (D) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: Hawley (R) MT: Tester (D) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Heller (R) OH: Brown (D) TN: Blackburn (R) TX: Cruz (R) WV: Manchin (D) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Dunleavy (R) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Gillum (D) GA: Kemp (R) KS: Kelly (D) NV: Sisolak (D) OH: Cordray (D) WI: Evers (D) House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off) How many seats will Dems gain?+27 Thanks for doing this, should be fun. |
11-05-2018, 07:47 PM | #15 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Highlands Ranch, CO, USA
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Senate (3 pts each)
AZ: McSally (R) FL: Nelson (D) IN: Braun (R) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: McCaskill (D) MT: Tester (D) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Rosen (D) OH: Brown (D) TN: Blackburn (R) TX: O'Rourke (D) WV: Manchin (D) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Begich (D) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Gillum (D) GA: Kemp (R) KS: Kelly (D) NV: Sisolak (D) OH: Cordray (D) WI: Evers (D) House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off) 33
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11-06-2018, 10:34 AM | #16 |
Torchbearer
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: On Lake Harriet
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Senate (3 pts each)
AZ: Sinema (D) FL: Nelson (D) IN: Donnelly (D) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: Hawley (R) MT: Tester (D) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Rosen (D) OH: Brown (D) TN: Blackburn (R) TX: Cruz (R) WV: Manchin (D) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Begich (D) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Gillum (D) GA: RUN OFF, then Kemp (R) KS: Kelly (D) NV: Sisolak (D) OH: Cordray (D) WI: Walker (R) House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off) +32 How many seats will Dems gain? (Put negative if you think GOP will gain.) |
11-06-2018, 01:34 PM | #17 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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FiveThirtyEight's Predictions
Senate (3 pts each) AZ: Sinema (D) FL: Nelson (D) IN: Donnelly (D) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: McCaskill (D) MT: Tester (D) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Rosen (D) OH: Brown (D) TN: Blackburn (R) TX: Cruz (R) WV: Manchin (D) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Dunleavy (R) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Gillum (D) GA: Kemp (R) KS: Kobach (R) NV: Sisolak (D) OH: Cordray (D) WI: Evers (D) House: +36
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11-06-2018, 04:08 PM | #18 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2003
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Not sure if you are still taking these, but for posterity:
Senate (3 pts each) AZ: Sinema (D) FL: Nelson (D) IN: Donnelly (D) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: Hawley (R) MT: Tester (D) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Rosen (D) OH: Brown (D) TN: Blackburn (R) TX: Cruz (R) WV: Manchin (D) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Dunleavy (R) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Desantis (R) GA: Kemp (R) KS: Kelly (D) NV: Sisolak (D) OH: Cordray (D) WI: Walker (R) House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off) D +27 |
11-06-2018, 07:46 PM | #19 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Burke, VA
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FWIW it's not looking good for a blue wave...
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11-07-2018, 02:27 AM | #20 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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Here's the current leaderboard. This doesn't include the AZ or MT senate races or the final House tally. I am counting Kemp for GA for now...
bhlloy: 42 (Sinema, Tester, +27) tarcone: 39 (McSally, Rosendale, +15) BishopMVP: 39 (McSally, Tester, +27) Ryche: 36 (McSally, Tester, +33) digamma: 36 (Sinema, Tester, +32) FiveThirtyEight: 36 (Sinema, Tester, +36) Racer: 36 (Sinema, Tester, +43) path12: 36 (Sinema, Tester, +39) larrymcg421: 33 (Sinema, Tester, +45) Marc Vaughan: 30 (McSally, Rosendale, +25) Butter: 30 (Sinema, Tester, +30) Thomkal: 30 (Sinema, Rosendale, +33) JPhillips: 30 (Sinema, Tester, +30) FWIW, it looks like Tester and McSally will win.
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11-07-2018, 11:28 AM | #21 |
Head Coach
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oof, don't call on me to be a predictor of elections...
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11-07-2018, 12:38 PM | #22 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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MT has been called for Tester. Updated standings...
bhlloy: 45 (Sinema, +27) BishopMVP: 42 (McSally, +27) tarcone: 39 (McSally, +15) Ryche: 39 (McSally, +33) digamma: 39 (Sinema, +32) FiveThirtyEight: 39 (Sinema, +36) Racer: 39 (Sinema, +43) path12: 39 (Sinema, +39) larrymcg421: 36 (Sinema, +45) Butter: 33 (Sinema, +30) JPhillips: 33 (Sinema, +30) Thomkal: 30 (Sinema, +33) Marc Vaughan: 30 (McSally, +25) It looks like McSally will win, but it's not certain yet. Still lots of voted to be counted. For the House, Dems have gained 27 so far with 19 left to be called.
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11-07-2018, 12:41 PM | #23 |
Head Coach
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I think Sinema is still in with a chance. It looked like most of the R strongholds in the state have reported in with a few D strongholds still being counted.
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11-07-2018, 01:03 PM | #24 |
Torchbearer
Join Date: Sep 2001
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Gonna be hard to top Ryche, assuming McSally holds.
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11-07-2018, 01:35 PM | #25 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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Yeah I think Ryche likely wins if McSally wins. If Sinema wins, it's more interesting, but FiveThirtyEight would be the favorite. If we don't count them, then it's between bhlloy and path 12 and could come down to a single district.
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11-08-2018, 01:34 PM | #26 |
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Apparently, 18% of the votes in AZ still haven't been counted, so Sinema still has a shot.
Meanwhile, Nelson is now within 24,000 in FL and there's some weirdness going on in Broward County. Both him and Gillum are in automatic recount territory. Right now it looks like Dems will gain around 37 seats.
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11-08-2018, 03:14 PM | #27 |
Coordinator
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I picked this before the last couple days. Should have chosen Hawley. Thought healthcare would have been a bigger issue.
Rural Missouri got whipped to a frenzy by that Trump visit.
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11-08-2018, 07:39 PM | #28 |
College Benchwarmer
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Location: Highlands Ranch, CO, USA
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I'm good with not winning this.
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11-09-2018, 01:42 PM | #29 |
Coordinator
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Location: Seattle, WA
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But you could parlay it into a punditry gig!
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11-09-2018, 04:20 PM | #30 | |
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Quote:
Sinema now up about 8,200 votes with Maricopa County set to report updated numbers at 5:00 local time. Which of course triggered this https://www.newsweek.com/arizona-sen...-trump-1210068 Last edited by BYU 14 : 11-09-2018 at 04:23 PM. |
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11-09-2018, 06:01 PM | #31 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: The scorched Desert
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Sinema up by over 21,000 now
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11-12-2018, 09:56 AM | #32 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Georgia
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I'm calling it for Sinema. Here are the updated standings based on the current house margin of 34 pickups. There are still 10 uncalled races.
bhlloy: 41 (+27) digamma: 40 (+32) FiveThirtyEight: 40 (+36) Ryche: 38 (+33) path12: 37 (+39) BishopMVP: 35 (+27) Racer: 33 (+43) Butter: 32 (+30) JPhillips: 32 (+30) Thomkal: 32 (+33) larrymcg421: 28 (+45) tarcone: 20 (+15) Marc Vaughan: 21 (+25) With 10 races remaining, here are the winning scenarios Dems win 0-1: bhlloy wins Dems win 2: bhlloy and path12 tie Dems win 3-6: path12 wins Dems win 7: path12 and racer tie Dems win 8-10: racer wins I didn't count FiveThirtyEight in those scenarios, but they would win if Dems pick up 1-3. Below are the remaining races: CA-10: Dem leads CA-39: GOP leads CA-45: GOP leads GA-7: GOP leads (extremely narrow 890 votes) ME-2: GOP leads (but will go to ranked choice runoff, likely to favor the Dem) NJ-3: Dem leads NY-22: Dem leads NY-27: GOP leads TX-23: GOP leads UT-4: Dem leads
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11-12-2018, 01:25 PM | #33 |
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Hey I'm not in last anymore
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11-12-2018, 06:34 PM | #34 |
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And you're guaranteed to stay ahead of tarcone and Marc.
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11-12-2018, 08:04 PM | #35 |
Head Coach
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McSally concedes to Sinema. No doubt angering the RNC and Trump who wanted her to push their voter fraud conspiracies.
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11-19-2018, 03:35 PM | #36 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
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Currently, there are 38 House pickups with 4 races to be called...
CA-21: This one came out of nowhere. The GOP incumbent Valadao was way ahead on election night and the race was called. But the absentee ballots have broken for the Dem challenger so strongly that now it's a tossup who wins. UT-4: Still counting absentees and provisionals. McAdams (D) led since election night and Love (R) recently took a small lead. Could go either way as there are still ballots to count from Salt Lake County. GA-7: Very close race as incumbent Woodall (R) holds a narrow 420 vote lead. However, all ballots have been counted, so the only hope for a reversal is in a recount, which seems unlikely. NY-27: Still waiting on absentee ballots, but it's likely that the incumbent (R) Collins holds on. If the Dems win 0, 1, or 2 of these 4, then path 12 wins outright. If the Dems win 3 of these 4, then path 12 and racer tie. If the Dems sweep all 4, then racer wins outright.
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11-20-2018, 05:01 PM | #37 |
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*waiting on calls from CNN, MSNBC, etc for that all important middle age white guy punditry*
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We have always been at war with Eastasia. Last edited by path12 : 11-20-2018 at 05:02 PM. |
11-20-2018, 05:31 PM | #38 |
Head Coach
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UT-4 is all but called for McAdams. No votes left and it's outside the recount margin.
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11-20-2018, 06:32 PM | #39 |
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NY-27 seems in the same place, with Collins ahead.
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11-21-2018, 05:40 PM | #40 |
Head Coach
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Recount complete in GA-7 and Woodall held on as expected. With Collins also holding on, that means path 12 is our official winner. CA-21 is still counting and it seems like Cox is going to pull ahead of Valadao, despite many networks still having this as a called race. In the final standings below, I counted the results for a Cox victory since it doesn't matter for the winner, but will change it if it breaks the other way...
path12: 41 Racer: 39 FiveThirtyEight: 38 bhlloy: 35 digamma: 34 larrymcg421: 34 Ryche: 32 BishopMVP: 29 Butter: 26 JPhillips: 26 Thomkal: 26 Marc Vaughan: 15 tarcone: 14
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11-21-2018, 06:06 PM | #41 |
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And here's how we did predicting the various winners...
Code:
Average house prediction was +31.9 seats.
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