Werewolf CXXVIII - The Original Werewolves - VILLAGERS WIN - Page 7

Danny · 03-23-2011, 10:17 PM

Ready to get this party started?

I am the seer. Last night I scanned J23 and he is a wolf!

I am not going to say my night 1 scan as with the BG still out there I get one more, and no need to put a target on someones back to be killed while I am protected.

Danny · 03-23-2011, 10:22 PM

Playinf floorball, will reply to anything.I need to when I get home

Barkeep49 · 03-23-2011, 10:24 PM

Vote J23

Barkeep49 · 03-23-2011, 10:24 PM

I'm predicting less a party and more a slow day.

Lathum · 03-23-2011, 10:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

So mckerny was the first Jackal voter on both days. Considering Jackal has had serious looks at him, perhaps the wolves were trying to take out a critic?

Or trying to make Jackal look bad

Barkeep49 · 03-23-2011, 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Or trying to make Jackal look bad

That seems like quite a bank shot. If I'm the wolves I'm either trying to take out a roled player. I could see a group of wolves who decide to take out a critic instead. I don't see, on Day 2 with no N1 kill, them trying to execute this second level sort of play.

Lathum · 03-23-2011, 10:29 PM

Dont see why Danny would lie, but why come out already?

Barkeep49 · 03-23-2011, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Dont see why Danny would lie, but why come out already?

This is a fairly small game. We get 1 confirmed wolf, plus any other scans as long as he lives. 1:1 trade in a game with 3 likely wolves is a good deal, especially coming on D3.

Barkeep49 · 03-23-2011, 10:35 PM

Danny who have you other scans been?

The Jackal · 03-23-2011, 10:43 PM

Interesting. I see no reason not to believe the reveal without a counter.

VOTE J23

The Jackal · 03-23-2011, 10:45 PM

You're welcome to scan me if you think I'm a good candidate for a wolf (if you didn't already). It's possible they took out mckerney to make me look bad, I certainly wouldn't suggest that play to my team if I was a wolf. Obviously I was barking up the wrong tree with DV, but really there's been little to go on the first couple of days. With this reveal there's a bit more to examine. Now I'm going to sleep!

The Jackal · 03-23-2011, 10:45 PM

STAY AWAY FROM MY DAUGHTERS

bhlloy · 03-23-2011, 10:51 PM

Just got off plane but obviously

Vote J23

Lathum · 03-23-2011, 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Danny who have you other scans been?

He said earlier he didnt want to say so they wouldn't become a target

Danny · 03-24-2011, 12:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

This is a fairly small game. We get 1 confirmed wolf, plus any other scans as long as he lives. 1:1 trade in a game with 3 likely wolves is a good deal, especially coming on D3.

This, and with the bodyguard out there and no brutal wolf, I am guaranteed another scan.

And honestly, as often as I am a night 1 or 2 kill, I am living on borrowed time as it is

. FWIW, I have intentionally played a little out there in hopes I would not be night killed.

Danny · 03-24-2011, 12:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

He said earlier he didnt want to say so they wouldn't become a target

Yes, If I reveal my night 1 scan, they will be night killed tonight while I am protected. If I wait until after my day 3 scan, I can then reveal my night 3 scan and either nab another wolf or potentially clear two people if both are still alive so that we go into day 4 7-2 with 3 potential cleared players (including myself)

Danny · 03-24-2011, 12:52 AM

Hmmm we also might have the martyr, potentially giving me two or three more scans. I would say the BG protect me tonight and then on night 4, the martyr use his ability on me. If that works, the and still alive, the BG could protect me again night 5.

Danny · 03-24-2011, 12:54 AM

Oh and

Vote J23

Chief Rum · 03-24-2011, 02:16 AM

Way to go, Danny!

VOTE J23

Should we consider a nightfall vote?

saldana · 03-24-2011, 04:54 AM

no brainer

vote j23

JAG · 03-24-2011, 05:13 AM

Excellent.

Vote J23
Vote Nightfall (assuming it's allowed)

mauchow · 03-24-2011, 06:19 AM

vote j23

interesting. yeah, it definitely seems like danny could live 3 days in a row yet, which is obviously awesome.

dwardzala · 03-24-2011, 06:34 AM

Vote J23
Vote Nightfall

I won't be around until after work today.

JAG · 03-24-2011, 07:24 AM

I looked back through mckerney's posts to see if there was any other indication why he might've been a target, the only thing I can think of is this sequence:

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney

At least we didn't kill or out a roled villager. :shrug:

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney

Hoping the BG was protecting someone other than themselves.

I guess we'll know more tonight.

Danny, why did you scan J23?

Danny · 03-24-2011, 08:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

I looked back through mckerney's posts to see if there was any other indication why he might've been a target, the only thing I can think of is this sequence:

I guess we'll know more tonight.

Danny, why did you scan J23?

He was playing exactly like he did three games ago when we were wolves together. Under the rader, quiet, quasi-absent with early votes that stuck.

Danny · 03-24-2011, 08:36 AM

And he had the second vote on DV.

Lathum · 03-24-2011, 08:43 AM

Vote J23
Vote Nightfall

Lathum · 03-24-2011, 08:44 AM

Obviously up to Autumn and the wolves, but I wouldn't be opposed to running a quick day/ nigh phase and then having a shorter D3 end at the usual deadline today

Lathum · 03-24-2011, 08:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Hmmm we also might have the martyr, potentially giving me two or three more scans. I would say the BG protect me tonight and then on night 4, the martyr use his ability on me. If that works, the and still alive, the BG could protect me again night 5.

hmmm, I am going with Occams Razor hear and assuming you are most likely the seer, but the fact you have found a way to stay alive so late into the game worries me.

If danny isn't the seer I think the real seer would need to time that reveal carefully, before it could be to late.

Lathum · 03-24-2011, 08:48 AM

dola- I think N1 the wolves probably went for a random kill in McKerney, someone they thought wouldn't be blocked. I am guessing the BG thought the wolves would do something like that and got very lucky.

saldana · 03-24-2011, 08:51 AM

vote nightfall

I like the quick flip and run another day idea if enough people are on board

Autumn · 03-24-2011, 08:53 AM

Vote count as of post 330

10 J23 - Barkeep49 (303), The Jackal (310), bhlloy (313), Danny (318), Chief Rum (319), saldana (320), JAG (321), Mauboy (322), dwardzala (323), Lathum (327)

Nightfall - JAG, dwardzala, Lathum

Autumn · 03-24-2011, 08:53 AM

Vote count as of post 332

10 J23 - Barkeep49 (303), The Jackal (310), bhlloy (313), Danny (318), Chief Rum (319), saldana (320), JAG (321), Mauboy (322), dwardzala (323), Lathum (327)

Nightfall - JAG, dwardzala, Lathum, Saldana

JAG · 03-24-2011, 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

hmmm, I am going with Occams Razor hear and assuming you are most likely the seer, but the fact you have found a way to stay alive so late into the game worries me.

If danny isn't the seer I think the real seer would need to time that reveal carefully, before it could be to late.

I was wondering if the BG protected Danny (or CR or maybe you) N1, knowing he is frequently an early wolf target as a villager, then the wolves went after mckerney, thinking he had revealed that he protected someone other than himself. I think that's more likely than the BG randomly protecting mckerney N1 and getting insanely lucky. If that's the case, it's possible the BG can somewhat clear another person for us (unless the wolves just forgot to submit a NK order).

dwardzala · 03-24-2011, 09:00 AM

What if Danny is the traitor and scanned J23 as the seer?

Unvote Nightfall

dwardzala · 03-24-2011, 09:01 AM

Haven't unvoted J23 yet because I'd like some other people's thoughts on it.

JAG · 03-24-2011, 09:02 AM

Or here's another thought. Perhaps the wolves went after the Woodsman N1 and got some flavor text like, "You try to kill X but he is able to fight off your attack." Then they know who the Woodsman is to kill off later and they can try to locate other roled players in the meantime.

JAG · 03-24-2011, 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dwardzala

What if Danny is the traitor and scanned J23 as the seer?

Unvote Nightfall

I was thinking about that as a possibility also (which is why I wanted more info from Danny), but I didn't want to say anything until we had heard from J23. At this point I'm not inclined to believe that however.

mauchow · 03-24-2011, 10:03 AM

What would you guys do if you were a seer (I'm not don't worry). If I was Danny and I was the seer I would probably wait a bit longer to reveal. I'd probably start to put a vote on j23 if he scanned wolf and see if people follow without having to reveal. If the vote isn't falling his way then pull out the reveal card to make sure wolf goes home.

However, I will give him the benefit of the doubt right now as we only have d1 and d2 votes to go off which at face value isn't much.

It'd be a brilliant move by the traitor to rid of the seer. If j23 is says he's the seer what the hell is going to happen? I can't imagine I'd be switching anyway but its something to think about big time.

The Jackal · 03-24-2011, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

Or here's another thought. Perhaps the wolves went after the Woodsman N1 and got some flavor text like, "You try to kill X but he is able to fight off your attack." Then they know who the Woodsman is to kill off later and they can try to locate other roled players in the meantime.

I think either this happened, or a case where the BG protected their target and they got a similar message, something like "someone prevents your attack upon so and so".

The Jackal · 03-24-2011, 10:05 AM

I didn't even realize before that the traitor could scan for the seer. A nightfall vote in this case won't work, especially before J gets a chance to speak. Favor still sits with Danny, but if he is the traitor and this buys the wolves another day of no wolf kills, we're getting pretty close to losing.

The Jackal · 03-24-2011, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mauboy1

What would you guys do if you were a seer (I'm not don't worry). If I was Danny and I was the seer I would probably wait a bit longer to reveal. I'd probably start to put a vote on j23 if he scanned wolf and see if people follow without having to reveal. If the vote isn't falling his way then pull out the reveal card to make sure wolf goes home.

However, I will give him the benefit of the doubt right now as we only have d1 and d2 votes to go off which at face value isn't much.

It'd be a brilliant move by the traitor to rid of the seer. If j23 is says he's the seer what the hell is going to happen? I can't imagine I'd be switching anyway but its something to think about big time.

Danny's reveal did strike me as a bit quick. Finding one wolf in a three wolf game isn't usually surefire motivation, though Danny is often a NK target so I can understand he might not want to die without revealing. However, Danny is smart enough to be able to place a vote without revealing and give us enough to trace back and see he was pretty sure about that person if he ended up being NKed and revealed as the seer. I'm still likely to believe Danny's story, but I'm skeptical.

The Jackal · 03-24-2011, 10:08 AM

In a presumed three wolf game, that is. I expect 3 wolves+cultist would be a fair mesh with the villager roles present.

The Jackal · 03-24-2011, 10:10 AM

I'm thinking of a course of action where we place J aside, at least for one day. We know he's not the only wolf, if he is one. And if Danny is the cultist, lynching him doesn't solve our problems. So we wait to hear what J has to say, and take a look at everyone else. However, without knowing for certain if Danny is telling the truth, it's hard to analyze the voting..

Danny · 03-24-2011, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dwardzala

What if Danny is the traitor and scanned J23 as the seer?

Unvote Nightfall

This would be a smart play if I a was the cultist who scanned seer. However, keep in mind that there is a mich greater chance to scan 1 of 3 wolves than 1 of 1 seer. Further, J23's play has not been indicative of a possible seer, I doubt I would have scanned him looking for the seer. In fact looking at night 1 and 2, I don't even think he was on between day and night deadline to let the lynch result guide his scan. He would have been if he was the seer I would think.

Barkeep49 · 03-24-2011, 10:17 AM

Vote nightfall

Danny · 03-24-2011, 10:18 AM

Wow, so.I should have voted J23 and then left the village to guess if I actually scanned him after being night killed?

Revealing was the 100 percent right thing to do. Especially with the BG and maybe even the martyr out there.

Is it possible I am the cultist who scanned seer? Sure, but its much more likely I am the seer. Any play to delay lynching J23 is a bad, low percentage play.

Danny · 03-24-2011, 10:21 AM

Oh and I HATE it when a seer goes to the grave having a known wolf. Getting the first wolf helps significantly in finding the other ones, then everyone tries to interpret their posts and usually ends up wrong.

JAG · 03-24-2011, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

This would be a smart play if I a was the cultist who scanned seer. However, keep in mind that there is a mich greater chance to scan 1 of 3 wolves than 1 of 1 seer. Further, J23's play has not been indicative of a possible seer, I doubt I would have scanned him looking for the seer. In fact looking at night 1 and 2, I don't even think he was on between day and night deadline to let the lynch result guide his scan. He would have been if he was the seer I would think.

I agree with this, plus I think your play has been villager-like, albeit somewhat provocative, though with how often you're NK'ed early that was obviously a smart move. And then we don't know for a certainty that the traitor is in the game at all and I rate it as highly unlikely this is something other than as Danny is saying.

Barkeep49 · 03-24-2011, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I'm thinking of a course of action where we place J aside, at least for one day. We know he's not the only wolf, if he is one. And if Danny is the cultist, lynching him doesn't solve our problems. So we wait to hear what J has to say, and take a look at everyone else. However, without knowing for certain if Danny is telling the truth, it's hard to analyze the voting..

I'm not sure I follow. We don't lynch either of them for today and get what out of it?

03-24-2011, 02:16 AM	#319
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Way to go, Danny! VOTE J23 Should we consider a nightfall vote? __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

03-23-2011, 10:17 PM	#301
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Ready to get this party started? I am the seer. Last night I scanned J23 and he is a wolf! I am not going to say my night 1 scan as with the BG still out there I get one more, and no need to put a target on someones back to be killed while I am protected.

03-23-2011, 10:22 PM	#302
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Playinf floorball, will reply to anything.I need to when I get home

03-23-2011, 10:24 PM	#303
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Vote J23

03-23-2011, 10:24 PM	#304
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	I'm predicting less a party and more a slow day.

03-23-2011, 10:29 PM	#307
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	Dont see why Danny would lie, but why come out already?

03-23-2011, 10:35 PM	#309
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Danny who have you other scans been?

03-23-2011, 10:43 PM	#310
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Interesting. I see no reason not to believe the reveal without a counter. VOTE J23

03-23-2011, 10:45 PM	#311
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	You're welcome to scan me if you think I'm a good candidate for a wolf (if you didn't already). It's possible they took out mckerney to make me look bad, I certainly wouldn't suggest that play to my team if I was a wolf. Obviously I was barking up the wrong tree with DV, but really there's been little to go on the first couple of days. With this reveal there's a bit more to examine. Now I'm going to sleep!

03-23-2011, 10:45 PM	#312
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	STAY AWAY FROM MY DAUGHTERS

03-23-2011, 10:51 PM	#313
bhlloy Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2003	Just got off plane but obviously Vote J23

03-24-2011, 12:52 AM	#317
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Hmmm we also might have the martyr, potentially giving me two or three more scans. I would say the BG protect me tonight and then on night 4, the martyr use his ability on me. If that works, the and still alive, the BG could protect me again night 5.

03-24-2011, 12:54 AM	#318
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Oh and Vote J23

03-24-2011, 04:54 AM	#320
saldana Pro Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Bethlehem, Pa	no brainer vote j23

03-24-2011, 05:13 AM	#321
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Excellent. Vote J23 Vote Nightfall (assuming it's allowed)

03-24-2011, 06:19 AM	#322
mauchow Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Murfreesboro, TN	vote j23 interesting. yeah, it definitely seems like danny could live 3 days in a row yet, which is obviously awesome.

03-24-2011, 06:34 AM	#323
dwardzala H.S. Freshman Team Join Date: Nov 2004	Vote J23 Vote Nightfall I won't be around until after work today.

03-24-2011, 08:36 AM	#326
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	And he had the second vote on DV.

03-24-2011, 08:43 AM	#327
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	Vote J23 Vote Nightfall

03-24-2011, 08:44 AM	#328
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	Obviously up to Autumn and the wolves, but I wouldn't be opposed to running a quick day/ nigh phase and then having a shorter D3 end at the usual deadline today

03-24-2011, 08:48 AM	#330
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	dola- I think N1 the wolves probably went for a random kill in McKerney, someone they thought wouldn't be blocked. I am guessing the BG thought the wolves would do something like that and got very lucky.

03-24-2011, 08:51 AM	#331
saldana Pro Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Bethlehem, Pa	vote nightfall I like the quick flip and run another day idea if enough people are on board

03-24-2011, 08:53 AM	#332
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Vote count as of post 330 10 J23 - Barkeep49 (303), The Jackal (310), bhlloy (313), Danny (318), Chief Rum (319), saldana (320), JAG (321), Mauboy (322), dwardzala (323), Lathum (327) Nightfall - JAG, dwardzala, Lathum

03-24-2011, 08:53 AM	#333
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Vote count as of post 332 10 J23 - Barkeep49 (303), The Jackal (310), bhlloy (313), Danny (318), Chief Rum (319), saldana (320), JAG (321), Mauboy (322), dwardzala (323), Lathum (327) Nightfall - JAG, dwardzala, Lathum, Saldana

03-24-2011, 09:00 AM	#335
dwardzala H.S. Freshman Team Join Date: Nov 2004	What if Danny is the traitor and scanned J23 as the seer? Unvote Nightfall

03-24-2011, 09:01 AM	#336
dwardzala H.S. Freshman Team Join Date: Nov 2004	Haven't unvoted J23 yet because I'd like some other people's thoughts on it.

03-24-2011, 09:02 AM	#337
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Or here's another thought. Perhaps the wolves went after the Woodsman N1 and got some flavor text like, "You try to kill X but he is able to fight off your attack." Then they know who the Woodsman is to kill off later and they can try to locate other roled players in the meantime.

03-24-2011, 10:03 AM	#339
mauchow Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Murfreesboro, TN	What would you guys do if you were a seer (I'm not don't worry). If I was Danny and I was the seer I would probably wait a bit longer to reveal. I'd probably start to put a vote on j23 if he scanned wolf and see if people follow without having to reveal. If the vote isn't falling his way then pull out the reveal card to make sure wolf goes home. However, I will give him the benefit of the doubt right now as we only have d1 and d2 votes to go off which at face value isn't much. It'd be a brilliant move by the traitor to rid of the seer. If j23 is says he's the seer what the hell is going to happen? I can't imagine I'd be switching anyway but its something to think about big time.

03-24-2011, 10:05 AM	#341
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I didn't even realize before that the traitor could scan for the seer. A nightfall vote in this case won't work, especially before J gets a chance to speak. Favor still sits with Danny, but if he is the traitor and this buys the wolves another day of no wolf kills, we're getting pretty close to losing.

03-24-2011, 10:08 AM	#343
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	In a presumed three wolf game, that is. I expect 3 wolves+cultist would be a fair mesh with the villager roles present.

03-24-2011, 10:10 AM	#344
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I'm thinking of a course of action where we place J aside, at least for one day. We know he's not the only wolf, if he is one. And if Danny is the cultist, lynching him doesn't solve our problems. So we wait to hear what J has to say, and take a look at everyone else. However, without knowing for certain if Danny is telling the truth, it's hard to analyze the voting..