2014-2015 Ultimate what-if sports NCAA Tournament

[collegesportsfanms]

With WIS getting the teams up for the current NCAA season, I'm going to fit yet another project into the mix. Fortunately I should have more time once I get back in town as I will have 1 less job to worry about.

Last year I made a season out of it, this year I'm including every team and going back to tournament style. The first part will be round robin. According to team rankings there were 351 teams in NCAA this season. The only way to have even groups is to do 39 groups of 9, with the top 3 in each group advancing followed by the 11 best 4th place finishers.

Normally I like having groups of 4 or 6, but there is no way to make that work and keep the groups even, so unless somebody comes up with a way to make it work with 6 team groups, I have no choice but to try it this way. I think this way will work. I am also considering a secondary tournament of sorts, I would like opinions on that too please.

My hope is to get this figured out by Thursday so that I can start putting the groups together while I'm watching the NCAA tournament games, so get your opinions in quick!

[britrock88]

56 groups of 6 and 3 groups of 5?

If there can't be any variance in group size, then yeah, you're stuck at group sizes of 3 or 9 (117 or 39 groups).

[collegesportsfanms]

Originally Posted by britrock88

56 groups of 6 and 3 groups of 5?

If there can't be any variance in group size, then yeah, you're stuck at group sizes of 3 or 9 (117 or 39 groups).

I thought about that, then you don't have even games for record purposes. I'd have to add games somehow in the last 3 groups and if I can think of a fair way to do that, I will. I may have an idea, and I think I might have done it when I did this 2 seasons ago.

[britrock88]

The way other competitions do it is to exclude the last-place team from the standings in the large groups. Not sure that's the fairest idea, but it's something I can offer off-hand.

[britrock88]

27 groups of 13?

[Marmel]

Alabama State, Appalachian State, Florida A&M, Houston Baptist, Lamar, San Jose State, Central Arkansas and Milwaukee, will all sit out the 2014-15 postseason by failing to meet the four-year average of 930. (APR)

Syracuse self imposed.

That is 9 teams.

351-9=342
342/6=57

[britrock88]

Southern's also out for APR reasons, and Southern Miss self-imposed a ban. That gets you to 340. (Works for groups of 4 or 5.)

There are also 6 schools transitioning to D-1 that you could toss out to knock down to 334.

[collegesportsfanms]

Perfect, I got it figured out. Thanks guys, much appreciated. I love having people who can help me out while I'm at work. ��

Here's the plan, all the teams that have postseason bans or APR issues are gone. That gets me to 340. Of the 6 transitioning teams, I'll knock 4 out, keeping the 2 that have the best power ranking per teamrankings.com.

This gives me 336 teams, good for 56 groups of 6. Top 2 in each group advance, along with the 16 best 3rd place teams. This makes for a 128 team single elimination tournament.

Now, which 6 schools are transitioning to d1? I can start setting up the groups tonight when I get back to my hotel room

[britrock88]

Abilene Christian, Grand Canyon, Incarnate Word, Nebraska-Omaha, Northern Kentucky, and UMass-Lowell.

[collegesportsfanms]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Abilene Christian, Grand Canyon, Incarnate Word, Nebraska-Omaha, Northern Kentucky, and UMass-Lowell.

Thanks, glad you found that info because I couldn't come up with anything when I searched

[bbgunn]

Man, you guys are good!!! You guys pulled up the information like whoa.

[collegesportsfanms]

Thanks guys, I am working on getting the groups set up, hoping to have those done by midweek. The way I am setting the groups up is with an S-curve. I am taking rankings straight from realtimerpi.com, and the rankings are as of Selection Sunday. I'll just make the curve, and if there's a team that needs to be thrown out, they'll just be replaced with the next team. After I've got the groups in place, I'll go through and make sure that no groups have multiple members of a conference. For instance if a group has 2 SEC teams, I'll do some switching and make it work so that each group is represented by 6 different conferences (6 teams per group). This should be doable, it has been every other time I've done it.

Since I have so much going on at home, I'll be doing the bulk of this project in my down time at work. Sometimes I have hours a day that I can work on other stuff, sometimes I have little time. This could be a slow moving project, but I figure I've got plenty of time to get it done.

Again, my plan is to have the groups in place by Wednesday, so that I can start reporting on them here and getting this going.

[collegesportsfanms]

OK, I worked my butt off both doing work at the job and getting the groups set at the job, and I've done it. All 56 groups are complete. I've had to move some teams around due to multiple teams from the same conference in the same group. In fact, 1 group originally had 4 SEC teams in it! That was a chore. Thankfully, no team had to be moved more than 1 or 2 groups up or down from where they should have been, so it stayed about like it should have.

I will start announcing the groups tomorrow, along with giving my predictions. I doubt if I get all 56 groups announced in 1 day, in fact it may take me 2, 3, even the weekend to get it done, just depends on how much free time I have at work. I dunno about you guys, but I am pumped to get this started, along with everything else I've taken on project wise. I'd have to look, but I might just have the most dynasty reports currently going on this site right now!

As I announce the groups, I ask that you guys check them as well to make sure I didn't make a mistake (missed multiple conference teams in the same group) something like that. I'm pretty sure I've gotten all that taken care of, but it never hurts to have extra eyes! Until tomorrow.... I will leave you with a little hint. Kentucky is the #1 seed and is in the first group (go figure that huh?!)

[bbgunn]

Originally Posted by collegesportsfanms

I will leave you with a little hint. Kentucky is the #1 seed and is in the first group (go figure that huh?!)

Completely jaw-dropping. :P

[collegesportsfanms]

OK guys, it's the moment you've all been waiting for, time to start announcing the groups! Keep in mind that the records for each team are up to date as of when I announce the group, and may not necessarily be their final record. For instance, Kentucky is 36-0 now. We know that will not be their final record. Also, the groups were taken from an S-Curve from realtimerpis.com, but the printout I used was from Selection Sunday. If I wanted to be patient, I could wait until the tournament was over and get the official final records and RPI for each team. But I don't want to wait that long and I don't think you guys do either! So, here we go. Also, only the top 25 teams according to my printout will be ranked, so the top teams in groups 26-56 will not be ranked.

Group 1

#1 Kentucky (SEC, 36-0, 18-0)
UNLV (Mountain West, 18-15, 8-10)
Akron (MAC, 21-14, 9-9)
Cornell (Ivy, 13-17, 5-9)
Virginia Tech (ACC, 11-22, 2-16)
Grambling State (SWAC, 2-27, 0-18)

Was there any surprise Kentucky would be top seed in the round robin portion of this tournament? They should roll through this group with ease. And poor Grambling St. Seems like last time I did this, they were also the last ranked team and placed in the group with the #1 seed. Chances are they win maybe 1 game. As for who comes out of this group along with Kentucky? Well if you play the major school role, you gotta think VA Tech would have a chance. But, I'm going with Akron, with UNLV contending for a wildcard spot.

Group 2

#2 Villanova (Big East, 33-3, 16-2)
Vanderbilt (SEC, 21-14, 9-9)
Penn State (Big Ten, 18-16, 4-14)
Quinnipiac (MAAC, 15-15, 9-11)
Miami (OH) (MAC, 13-19, 8-10)
Alcorn State (SWAC, 6-26, 4-14)

I really don't see a team in this group that can win it over Villanova. Vanderbilt maybe. Either way, I see Villanova and Vanderbilt as the 2 teams coming out of this group, and I don't see a legit wildcard contender among the other 4 teams.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 3

#3 Kansas (Big 12, 27-9, 13-5)
Georgia Southern (Sun Belt, 22-9, 14-6)
Western Kentucky (Conference USA, 20-12, 12-6)
Portland State (Big Sky, 15-14, 9-9)
Denver (Summit, 12-18, 6-10)
Morgan State (MEAC, 7-24, 5-11)

Although I do think the Jayhawks will win this group, it won't be without some competition, especially from GA Southern and W. Kentucky. Those 2 teams should be battling it out for 2nd place, with whoever ends up in 3rd place having a very decent shot at a wildcard.


Group 4

#4 Wisconsin (Big Ten, 33-3, 16-2)
Chattanooga (Southern, 22-10, 15-3)
Colorado (Pac 12, 16-18, 7-11)
North Texas (Conference USA, 14-17, 8-10)
Ohio (MAC, 10-20, 5-13)
UMBC (4-26, 2-14)

This should be Wisconsin's group to lose. Chattanooga or Colorado may steal a game from them, but to win the group? Highly doubtful. It's a tough call on that 2nd place slot out of this group, but I'm going with Chattanooga, with no wildcard coming out of this group.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 5

#5 Arizona (Pac 12, 33-3, 16-2)
Florida State (ACC, 17-16, 8-10)
Texas Southern (SWAC, 22-13, 16-2)
Duquesne (Atlantic 10, 12-19, 6-12)
St. Peters (MAAC, 16-18, 8-12)
Idaho State (Big Sky, 7-23, 4-14)

Mark my words, Idaho State wins this group! OK OK, so I'm just kidding. Trying to keep everybody on their toes and instill a little good hearted humor into this. Seriously, Arizona will win the group. Without a doubt. It's a really, really tough call between Florida St. and TX Southern for that 2 spot. What's ironic about this group is that Zona and TX Southern actually played each other in the Second Round (well, I call it the First Round, but ya know) of the NCAA Tournament. I do like TX Southern so I'm taking them as the 2nd place team in the group.

Group 6

#6 Duke (ACC, 31-4, 15-3)
Long Beach State (Big West, 16-17, 10-6)
Western Michigan (MAC, 20-14, 10-8)
George Mason (Atlantic 10, 9-22, 4-14)
Army (Patriot, 15-15, 6-12)
Mississippi Valley State (SWAC, 6-26, 5-13)

How can you not pick against Duke to win this group? As much as I hate the Blue Devils, this is a really easy group for them. And while I like Long Beach State, I think Western Michigan is going to take that 2nd spot out of this group.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 7

#7 Virginia (ACC, 30-4, 16-2)
Bowling Green (MAC, 21-12, 11-7)
Evansville (Missouri Valley, 21-12, 9-9)
Western Carolina (Southern, 15-17, 9-9)
UC Riverside (Big West, 14-17, 7-9)
Bethune-Cookman (MEAC, 11-21, 7-9)

Mark my words, Virginia will get tested in this group. While I still think they will win the group, I think they'll suffer a bump or 2 along the way. Again, I see Bowling Green and Evansville battling for the 2nd spot, with whoever falls short being in contention for a wildcard. Man I'd like to be able to pick a 4 or 5 team to advance out of a group, but these early groups are tough for the 4,5,6 teams.

Group 8

#8 Gonzaga (WCC, 34-2, 17-1)
Stony Brook (America East, 23-12, 12-4)
St. Bonaventure (Atlantic 10, 18-13, 10-8)
East Carolina (American, 14-19, 6-12)
UT San Antonio (Conference USA, 14-16, 8-10)
Central Connecticut State (Northeast, 5-26, 3-15)

This is Gonzaga's group all the way. I just can't see Stony Brook or St. Bonaventure giving them that much of a push. Maybe the Zags lose to 1 of those teams, but not both. And once again, we look to have Stony Brook and St. Bonaventure battling for 2nd place, with the 3rd place finisher an outside shot at a wildcard, depending on who it is.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 9

#9 Iowa State (Big 12, 25-9, 12-6)
Clemson (ACC, 16-15, 8-10)
Lafayette (Patriot, 20-13, 9-9)
Missouri (SEC, 9-23, 3-15)
Texas State (Sun Belt, 14-17, 7-13)
Tennessee State (Ohio Valley, 5-26, 2-14)

Some really name teams in this group. Tough to see Missouri doing so terrible now. Sadly, they could be the first lower team from a group to have a chance at finishing top 2 in their group. I wasn't impressed with Clemson all season, and I just don't know how well Lafayette will match up. But nope, I just can't do it. Iowa St. to win the group, Clemson 2nd place.

Group 10

#10 Baylor (Big 12, 24-10, 11-7)
Belmont (Ohio Valley, 22-11, 11-5)
Loyola Chicago (Missouri Valley, 21-13, 8-10)
Mississippi State (SEC, 13-19, 6-12)
Fordham (Atlantic 10, 10-21, 4-14)
North Carolina A&T (MEAC, 9-23, 6-10)

This is by far the toughest of the groups so far. I really think there's 3 teams that have a legit chance to win the group, and I think Mississippi St. could compete for 2nd place or a wildcard spot. I will say this, I see a definite wildcard coming out of this group. I still like Baylor to win the group, but it won't be easy. I'll pick Belmont for 2nd place, but again, it won't be easy.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 11

#11 North Carolina (ACC, 26-11, 11-7)
New Mexico State (WAC, 23-11, 13-1)
Coastal Carolina (Big South, 24-10, 12-6)
Florida International (Conference USA, 16-17, 8-10)
Houston (American, 13-19, 4-14)
Maine (America East, 3-27, 2-14)

Could New Mexico St. or Coastal Carolina win this group? Yes. Will they? Probably not. The Tarheels are still the Tarheels, and they win the group. New Mexico State comes in 2nd, and Coastal Carolina contends for a wildcard.

Group 12

#12 SMU (American, 27-7, 15-3)
Arizona State (Pac 12, 18-16, 9-9)
North Carolina Central (MEAC, 25-8, 16-0)
IPFW (Summit, 16-15, 9-7)
Air Force (Mountain West, 14-17, 6-12)
Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun, 10-22, 4-10)

Don't be surprised if NC Central wins this group. They are good. Did I see it was going to happen? No, just saying, don't be surprised. I still think SMU will win the group, and NC Central will take 2nd place. I just don't think Arizona State has what it takes to finish 2nd.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 13

#13 Maryland (Big Ten, 28-7, 14-4)
Kansas State (Big 12, 15-17, 8-10)
Washington (Pac 12, 16-15, 5-13)
Tulane (American, 15-16, 6-12)
UNC Asheville (Big South, 15-16, 10-8)
Morgan State (MEAC, 7-24, 5-11)

In my opinion, this group is wide open. Kansas St. is the most frustrating team, because they were so inconsistent in the actual season. I think talent wise, they could win this group, or they could finish 4th or 5th. I like Maryland to win the group, and I'll go with Kansas St. to finish 2nd, but I'm not real confident in that. I would be shocked if we get a wildcard out of this group.

Group 14

Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley, 31-4, 16-2)
LaSalle (Atlantic 10, 17-16, 8-10)
Northwestern (Big Ten, 15-17, 6-12)
Mercer (Southern, 19-16, 12-6)
Rice (Conference USA, 12-20, 8-10)
Stetson (Atlantic Sun, 9-22, 3-11)

I am not impessed with this group in any way shape or form. By default I'm picking UNI to win it, but only because of the lack of competition among the group. I like Mercer to finish 2nd, and I definitely don't see a wildcard out of this group.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 15

VCU (Atlantic 10, 26-10, 12-6)
South Dakota State (Summit, 24-11, 12-4)
Auburn (SEC, 15-20, 4-14)
Texas A&M-CC (Southland, 20-14, 13-5)
Sacred Heart (Northeast, 15-17, 9-9)
UT Pan American (WAC, 10-21, 4-10)

Now this looks to be a fairly tough group. The only true major conference team in the group wasn't exactly great this season, so it's possible 2 mid-majors (I hate that term) will come out of this group. But I don't think that'll happen. I like VCU to win the group and I like Auburn to take 2nd, even though they aren't that great. I do think SD State or even A&M-CC can compete for a wildcard spot.

Group 16

#16 Notre Dame (ACC, 31-5, 14-4)
Minnesota (Big Ten, 18-15, 6-12)
Cleveland State (Horizon, 19-15, 11-5)
South Dakota (Summit, 17-16, 9-7)
Hartford (America East, 14-16, 7-9)
Chicago State (WAC, 8-24, 4-10)

Notre Dame should win this group fairly easily. It's a toss-up between Minnesota and Cleveland State for 2nd place, but I'm going with Minnesota. I think Cleveland St. can compete for a wildcard spot. They may not get one but they should be in the running for one.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 17

#17 Wichita State (Missouri Valley, 30-4, 17-1)
Tennessee (SEC, 16-16, 7-11)
UAB (Conference USA, 20-16, 12-6)
USC Upstate (Atlantic Sun, 24-12, 8-6)
Pacific (WCC, 12-19, 4-14)
Binghamton (America East, 6-26, 5-11)

Of course I like my Shockers to win the group, although they could get tested. Don't sleep on USC Upstate, they could throw a kink into plans. So Wichita St. winning the group, and I think UAB will finish 2nd. I can see a wildcard coming out of this group.

Group 18

#18 Oklahoma (Big 12, 24-10, 12-6)
Albany (America East, 24-9, 15-1)
Oregon State (Pac 12, 17-14, 8-10)
Charlotte (Conference USA, 14-18, 7-11)
Drexel (Colonial, 11-19, 9-9)
Alabama A&M (SWAC, 9-20, 8-10)

I think Albany has the potential to give Oklahoma a run in this group. Albany is a solid team and I think Oklahoma was way overseeded as a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. That being said, I still like Oklahoma to win the group, but I can see it coming down to the last game. Albany should take 2nd, and Oregon St. has an outside shot at competing for a wildcard berth.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 19

#19 Utah (Pac 12, 26-8, 13-5)
Seton Hall (Big East, 16-15, 6-12)
UL Monroe (Sun Belt, 24-12, 14-6)
Santa Clara (WCC, 14-18, 7-11)
Northern Colorado (Big Sky, 15-15, 10-8)
SE Louisiana (Southland, 9-23, 6-12)

I would not be surprised if UL Monroe won this group. While Utah is good, so is UL Monroe. That being said, I still like Utah to win the group with UL Monroe finishing 2nd. I really don't see a wildcard coming from this group.

Group 20

#20 Arkansas (SEC, 27-9, 13-5)
California (Pac 12, 18-15, 7-11)
Pepperdine (WCC, 18-14, 10-8)
Detroit (Horizon, 15-18, 7-9)
Missouri State (Missouri Valley, 11-20, 5-13)
Savannah State (MEAC, 9-22, 5-11)

Hard to go against Arkansas and that full court defense, especially when there really isn't another strong team in this group. Arkansas wins the group, Cal comes in 2nd, and no wildcard out of this group.

[collegesportsfanms]

So we're 20 groups down, still a lot to go. Anybody have any opinions? Predictions? I'll be tracking my predictions throughout the tournament, and if other people want me to track theirs as well, maybe we can make some kind of contest out of it. What say you? Just a way to drum up the excitement a little bit.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 21

#21 Louisville (ACC, 26-8, 12-6)
William & Mary (Colonial, 20-13, 12-6)
Gardner-Webb (Big South, 20-15, 10-8)
USC (Pac 12, 12-20, 3-15)
Hampton (MEAC, 17-18, 8-8)
Western Illinois (Summit, 8-20, 3-13)

A couple decent mid-majors that could challenge Louisville, although not too much of a challenge. Louisville should win the group, with William & Mary taking 2nd. Gardner-Webb, could contend for a wildcard spot.

Group 22

#22 Providence (Big East, 22-12, 11-7)
Kent State (MAC, 23-11, 12-6)
American (Patriot, 17-16, 8-10)
Vermont (America East, 20-14, 12-4)
Brown (Ivy, 13-18, 4-10)
The Citadel (Southern, 11-19, 6-12)

I'm going out on a limb here and making a tough prediction. I actually like Kent St. to win this group with Providence finishing 2nd, and Vermont competing for a wildcard spot.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 23

#23 Michigan State (Big Ten, 25-11, 12-6)
South Carolina (SEC, 17-16, 6-12)
Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun, 22-11, 11-3)
Delaware State (MEAC, 18-18, 9-7)
Navy (Patriot, 13-19, 8-10)
New Orleans (Southland, 11-18, 6-12)

Once again there's some tough competition in a group. I do think Michigan St. will win the group, but man, that is a tough call between South Carolina and FL Gulf Coast. I like Frank Martin, but sorry Frank, I gotta go with Dunk City for 2nd place. Maybe South Carolina can compete for a wildcard.

Group 24

#24 West Virginia (Big 12, 25-9, 11-7)
North Dakota State (Summit, 23-10, 12-4)
Middle Tennessee (Conference USA, 19-17, 9-9)
Morehead State (Ohio Valley, 17-17, 10-6)
Delaware (Colonial, 10-20, 9-9)
Montana State (Big Sky, 7-23, 4-14)

North Dakota State could give West Virginia a run, but I like West Virginia to win the group and North Dakota St. finishing 2nd place. I don't see a wildcard team out of this group.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 25

#25 Georgetown (Big East, 22-11, 12-6)
UC Irvine (Big West, 21-13, 11-5)
Bucknell (Patriot, 19-15, 13-5)
Winthrop (Big South, 19-13, 12-6)
Howard (MEAC, 16-16, 10-6)
Jackson State (SWAC, 11-21, 9-9)

I see 4 teams that have a very good chance to advance from this group. I thought Georgetown was overrated all season long, but it's hard to pick against them. I'm not sure if the other 3 can match their level. For my 2nd place team, I'm going with Winthrop. Don't ask me why, I just feel like they have the best chance. I definitely think there's a good chance of a wildcard out of this group.

Group 26

San Diego State (Mountain West, 27-9, 14-4)
High Point (Big South, 23-10, 13-5)
Eastern Michigan (MAC, 21-14, 8-10)
Cal Poly (Big West, 13-16, 6-10)
LIU Brooklyn (Northeast, 12-18, 8-10)
Nicholls State (Southland, 10-19, 7-11)

Can't see San Diego State having too much competition as far as winning the group. High Point looks to have the best chance for 2nd place, so I'll go with them. Maybe Eastern Michigan hangs around the wildcard chase for a while, but I don't see a wildcard out of this group.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 27

Oregon (Pac 12, 26-10, 13-5)
UC Santa Barbara (Big West, 19-14, 11-5)
Rider (MAAC, 21-12, 15-5)
Holy Cross (Patriot, 14-16, 8-10)
UCF (American, 12-18, 5-13)
Campbell (Big South, 10-22, 4-14)

This is a group that Oregon should and probably will win. I'm picking them to win it. Going with UCSB or Rider is tough, but I'm going with Rider for 2nd place, and UCSB could compete for a wildcard.

Group 28

Buffalo (MAC, 23-10, 12-6)
Northeastern (Colonial, 23-12, 12-6)
Sacramento State (Big Sky, 21-12, 13-5)
Boston University (Patriot, 13-17, 9-9)
IUPUI (Summit, 10-21, 6-10)
Austin Peay (Ohio Valley, 8-22, 3-13)

This group is going to be a lot of fun to simulate. Any of those top 3 teams could win the group. The one thing we do know for sure is that without a P5 conference member in this group, this might be the only group that is guaranteed not to advance a P5 conference member. Hard to pick between any of the top three, but for prediction purposes I have to, so.. I'll pick Buffalo to win the group and Northeastern to finish 2nd, with Sac State being in the running for a wildcard.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 29

Colorado State (Mountain West, 27-7, 13-5)
Alabama (SEC, 19-15, 8-10)
UL Lafayette (Sun Belt, 22-14, 13-7)
DePaul (Big East, 12-20, 6-12)
Elon (Colonial, 15-18, 6-12)
Kennesaw State (Atlantic Sun, 10-22, 4-10)

Once again it should come down to the top 3 in this group. Colorado State should win the group fairly easily, with Alabama taking 2nd place, but look for UL Lafayette to compete for a wildcard.

Group 30

Xavier (Big East, 23-14, 9-9)
George Washington (Atlantic 10, 22-13, 10-8)
UNC Wilmington (Colonial, 18-14, 12-6)
Columbia (Ivy, 13-15, 5-9)
Prairie View A&M (SWAC, 15-18, 12-6)
South Carolina State (MEAC, 11-22, 7-9)

Man, it's tough to pick between Xavier and GW for the top spot in this group, but I'm going with GW to win the group and Xavier to get 2nd place. I don't think UNC Wilmington is strong enough to compete for a wildcard for very long.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 31

Butler (Big East, 23-11, 12-6)
Sam Houston State (Southland, 26-9, 15-3)
TCU (Big 12, 18-15, 4-14)
Colgate (Patriot, 16-17, 12-6)
Weber State (Big Sky, 13-17, 8-10)
Marist (MAAC, 7-25, 5-15)

Wow! How does one pick against Sam Houston to win this group? Could they win it? Most definitely, and I think they will. I think Butler is 2nd place. TCU is improving, but they aren't there yet. No wildcard out of this group.

Group 32

Stephen F. Austin (Southland, 29-5, 17-1)
Memphis (American, 18-14, 10-8)
Utah State (Mountain West, 18-13, 11-7)
Maryland-Eastern Shore (MEAC, 18-15, 11-5)
Penn (Ivy, 9-19, 4-10)
Longwood (Big South, 11-23, 5-13)

SFA wins the group, hands down. The real battle is for 2nd place. 3 teams could work their way into it, but I still like Memphis. It'll be a grind though, and I like the chances of a wildcard from this group.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 33

Dayton (Atlantic 10, 27-9, 13-5)
Toledo (MAC, 20-13, 11-7)
Montana (Big Sky, 20-13, 14-4)
New Hampshire (America East, 19-12, 11-5)
Wright State (Horizon, 11-20, 3-13)
Cal St. Fullerton (Big West, 9-12, 1-15)

Tough, tough group. Any of 4 teams could come out of this group. I think Dayton will win it, but 2nd place is a huge toss-up. I'm going to go ahead and go with Toledo, but I definitely see a wildcard out of this group.

Group 34

Temple (American, 26-10, 13-5)
UMass (Atlantic 10, 17-15, 10-8)
Marquette (Big East, 13-19, 4-14)
East Tennessee State (Southern, 16-14, 8-10)
UMass Lowell (America East, 12-17, 6-10)
Presbyterian (Big South, 10-22, 6-12)

There's two clear favorites out of this group: Temple to win, UMass 2nd place. I just can't see anybody else competing, not even for a wildcard.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 35

Davidson (Atlantic 10, 24-8, 14-4)
UTEP (Conference USA, 22-11, 13-5)
James Madison (Colonial, 19-14, 12-6)
Princeton (Ivy, 16-14, 9-5)
Loyola Marymount (WCC, 8-23, 4-14)
Troy (Sun Belt, 10-19, 5-15)

Davidson had a heck of a season, I believe I recall they were picked last or next to last in the A-10. I still like UTEP to win this group though, with Davidson coming in 2nd. I don't see James Madison or Princeton being around the wildcard chase too long.

Group 36

BYU (WCC, 25-10, 13-5)
Michigan (Big Ten, 16-16, 8-10)
Wake Forest (ACC, 13-19, 5-13)
Indiana State (Missouri Valley, 15-16, 11-7)
Idaho (Big Sky, 13-17, 8-10)
Fairleigh Dickinson (Northeast, 8-21, 3-15)

BYU is a clear favorite to win the group, but 2nd place is very interesting. I'm going with Michigan, I think Indiana St. will give them a run, but I think Michigan will get that 2nd place spot.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 37

Cincinnati (American, 23-11, 13-5)
Pittsburgh (ACC, 19-15, 8-10)
Portland (WCC, 17-16, 7-11)
Bryant (Northeast, 16-15, 12-6)
Siena (MAAC, 11-20, 7-13)
Coppin State (MEAC, 8-23, 6-10)

Definitely like Cincinnati to win the group. I'll go with Pitt to take 2nd place, only because I don't think Portland or Bryant are strong enough. I also don't think they're strong enough to compete for a wildcard.

Group 38

Georgia (SEC, 21-12, 11-7)
UConn (American, 20-15, 10-8)
Creighton (Big East, 14-19, 4-14)
Dartmouth (Ivy, 14-15, 7-7)
Drake (Missouri Valley, 9-22, 6-12)
North Dakota (Big Sky, 8-22, 4-14)

Georgia and UConn are the clear frontrunners in this group, but I'm going to switch them: UConn comes up strong in postseason play, so I think they win the group, and Georgia comes in 2nd place.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 39

North Carolina State (ACC, 22-13, 10-8)
Eastern Washington (Big Sky, 26-9, 14-4)
Hawaii (Big West, 22-13, 8-8)
Mount St. Marys (Northeast, 15-15, 11-7)
Loyola (MD) (Patriot, 11-19, 7-11)
UNC Greensboro (Southern, 11-22, 6-12)

No reason in my mind why N.C. State shouldn't win this group. I actually like Hawaii to take 2nd place, with Eastern Washington stealing a wildcard.

Group 40

Boise State (Mountain West, 25-9, 14-4)
UC Davis (Big West, 25-7, 14-2)
Radford (Big South, 22-12, 12-6)
Northern Illinois (MAC, 14-16, 8-10)
Lipscomb (Atlantic Sun, 14-17, 7-7)
Utah Valley (WAC, 11-19, 5-9)

Another tough group with 3 teams that could advance. Boise State I think will win the group, and I'm picking Radford to take 2nd place. UC Davis should be in the running for a wildcard berth though.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 41

Ohio State (Big Ten, 24-11, 11-7)
Florida (SEC, 16-17, 8-10)
Georgia Tech (ACC, 12-19, 3-15)
Texas Tech (Big 12, 13-19, 3-15)
St. Louis (Atlantic 10, 11-21, 3-15)
Southern Utah (Big Sky, 10-19, 7-11)

Well, after Ohio St., this group takes a turn for the worse. Not another team in this group that had an overall winning record. Obviously I'm taking Ohio St. to win the group, call me crazy but I like Texas Tech. They've got a good thing going with Tubby Smith. I'm picking them to upset Florida at least once, and to take 2nd place in the group. I also don't see a wildcard from this group.

Group 42

Texas (Big 12, 20-14, 8-10)
Illinois (Big Ten, 19-14, 9-9)
Oakland (Horizon, 16-17, 11-5)
UT-Arlington (Sun Belt, 16-15, 10-10)
South Florida (American, 9-23, 3-15)
Nevada (Mountain West, 9-22, 5-13)

Yuck! Is it me or do the groups keep getting worse and worse? I guess that's to be expected though, given that the rank of the top team in each group keeps lowering. In this case, I like Illinois to win the group, with Texas finishing 2nd, and no wildcard from this group.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 43

Iowa (Big Ten, 22-12, 12-6)
Central Michigan (MAC, 23-9, 12-6)
Eastern Kentucky (Ohio Valley, 21-12, 11-5)
Fresno State (Mountain West, 15-17, 10-8)
South Alabama (Sun Belt, 12-21, 9-11)
Samford (Southern, 13-19, 6-12)

Now this is a bit of a tougher group. I even think Fresno has a chance to advance. I'll go with Iowa to win the group and Central Michigan in 2nd, but I wouldn't be surprised to see E. Kentucky or Fresno St. compete for a wildcard.

Group 44

St. Johns (Big East, 21-12, 10-8)
Wyoming (Mountain West, 25-10, 11-7)
NJIT (Independent, 21-11)
Rutgers (Big Ten, 10-22, 2-16)
Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt, 13-18, 8-12)
Jacksonville State (Ohio Valley, 12-19, 5-11)

NJIT is our only independent team in this tournament, and while I give them a chance to advance, I think Wyoming wins the group with St. Johns taking 2nd. NJIT could compete for a wildcard, but I don't think they have enough to compete with the bigger boys.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 45

Old Dominion (Conference USA, 27-7, 13-5)
St. Marys (WCC, 21-10, 13-5)
Nebraska (Big Ten, 13-18, 5-13)
Canisius (MAAC, 18-15, 11-9)
Arkansas State (Sun Belt, 11-18, 6-14)
CSU Bakersfield (WAC, 14-19, 7-7)

Hard to go against Old Dominion and St. Marys in this group, with Old Dominion winning it, St. Marys taking 2nd. I don't see a wildcard coming from this group.

Group 46

Tulsa (American, 23-11, 14-4)
Texas A&M (SEC, 21-12, 11-7)
San Diego (WCC, 15-16, 8-10)
St. Francis (PA) (Northeast, 16-16, 9-9)
McNeese State (Southland, 15-16, 8-10)
Florida Atlantic (Conference USA, 9-20, 2-16)

Again, it's hard to pick against the top 2 teams in this group. I'm going with Tulsa winning it, Texas A&M taking 2nd, and no wildcard from this group.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 47

Wofford (Southern, 28-7, 16-2)
Rhode Island (Atlantic 10, 23-10, 13-5)
Incarnate Word (Southland, 18-11, 10-8)
Tennessee-Martin (Ohio Valley, 21-12, 10-6)
Southern Illinois (Missouri Valley, 12-21, 4-14)
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC, 12-20, 9-9)

Wow, now this is a killer group! No P5 teams to speak of in it, and I would even give Southern Illinois a shot to advance. However, I like Rhode Island to win it, and I'll take Wofford in 2nd place. I like the chances of a wildcard from this group.

Group 48

UCLA (Pac 12, 22-14, 11-7)
Miami (FL) (ACC, 24-12, 10-8)
Northwestern State (Southland, 19-13, 13-5)
St. Josephs (Atlantic 10, 13-18, 7-11)
Seattle (WAC, 18-16, 7-7)
Fairfield (MAAC, 7-24, 5-15)

Ironic that UCLA and Miami are in the same group, as I thought Miami should have been in the actual NCAA tournament with UCLA playing in the NIT. And I'm predicting it that way here. Miami wins the group, UCLA 2nd place, and no wildcard from this group.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 49

Iona (MAAC, 26-9, 17-3)
Yale (Ivy, 22-10, 11-3)
North Florida (Atlantic Sun, 23-12, 12-2)
San Francisco (WCC, 14-18, 7-11)
Towson (Colonial, 12-20, 5-13)
IL Chicago (Horizon, 10-24, 4-12)

Nice group of mid-major teams here. I like Iona to win the group and North Florida to finish 2nd. Yale could compete for a wildcard.

Group 50

Valparaiso (Horizon, 28-6, 13-3)
Murray State (Ohio Valley, 29-6, 16-0)
Oral Roberts (Summit, 19-15, 10-6)
Monmouth (MAAC, 18-15, 13-7)
Cal State Northridge (Big West, 9-24, 4-12)
Charleston (Colonial, 9-24, 3-15)

Again, it looks like the top 2 in this group should advance. I like Murray St. to win the group though, with Oral Roberts coming in 2nd. No wildcard out of this group.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 51

Oklahoma State (Big 12, 18-14, 8-10)
Illinois State (Missouri Valley, 22-13, 11-7)
Charleston Southern (Big South, 19-12, 13-5)
Lehigh (Patriot, 16-14, 10-8)
Ball State (MAC, 7-23, 2-16)
UMKC (WAC, 14-19, 8-6)

I think Oklahoma St. is way overrated, but still good enough to advance out of this group. I think Illinois St. wins the group though, with Oklahoma St. taking 2nd. Charleston Southern could compete for a wildcard, but not likely.

Group 52

Harvard (Ivy, 22-8, 11-3)
Indiana (Big Ten, 20-14, 9-9)
Norfolk State (MEAC, 20-14, 12-4)
Hofstra (Colonial, 20-14, 10-8)
Niagara (MAAC, 8-22, 7-13)
Marshall (Conference USA, 11-21, 7-11)

Another pretty tough group, with 4 teams that could possibly advance. I think Harvard wins the group, and it's a tossup on 2nd place. Indiana will probably come out of it, but I can see a wildcard potentially coming out of this group.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 53

Georgia State (Sun Belt, 25-10, 15-5)
Ole Miss (SEC, 21-13, 11-7)
Boston College (ACC, 13-19, 4-14)
Eastern Illinois (Ohio Valley, 18-15, 9-7)
VMI (Southern, 11-19, 7-11)
Wagner (Northeast, 10-20, 8-10)

Tough group again. I like Georgia St. but they've got some tough competition in this group, namely Ole Miss. I actually think Ole Miss will win the group, with Georgia St. coming in 2nd. I don't see a wildcard from this group.

Group 54

Green Bay (Horizon, 24-9, 12-4)
Stanford (Pac 12, 22-13, 9-9)
Northern Arizona (Big Sky, 22-14, 13-5)
New Mexico (Mountain West, 15-16, 7-11)
SE Missouri State (Ohio Valley, 13-17, 7-9)
Furman (Southern, 11-22, 5-13)

Hard to say whether Northern Arizona can really provide much resistance in this group. I say no, although they could compete for a wildcard, maybe. Green Bay wins the group, Stanford takes 2nd.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 55

Purdue (Big Ten, 21-13, 12-6)
LSU (SEC, 22-11, 11-7)
Manhattan (MAAC, 19-14, 13-7)
Robert Morris (Northeast, 20-15, 12-6)
Bradley (Missouri Valley, 9-24, 3-15)
SIU Edwardsville (Ohio Valley, 12-16, 8-8)

There's 4 teams that I think could advance out of this group, but I like LSU to win the group. I still like Purdue to finish 2nd, and as for a wildcard? I think maybe, but probably not.

Group 56

Louisiana Tech (Conference USA, 27-9, 15-3)
Richmond (Atlantic 10, 21-14, 12-6)
St. Francis Brooklyn (Northeast, 23-12, 15-3)
Washington State (Pac 12, 13-18, 7-11)
Tennessee Tech (Ohio Valley, 12-18, 4-12)
Youngstown State (Horizon, 11-21, 2-14)

Gotta like LA Tech to win this group, and I'm going with another shocker. I'm going with St. Francis Brooklyn to take 2nd place, and Richmond earning a wildcard.

[collegesportsfanms]

Whew! That completes all the groups, and I'll be ready to jump in to group #1 tomorrow if all goes well. If anybody has any questions, comments, or concerns about the group, feel free. I'm also looking for other predictions. I'm going to be charting my predictions as to the 2 teams that advance from each group plus the 16 groups that will earn a wildcard, and I'll be working on that post tomorrow too.

[collegesportsfanms]

ok, it's time for my final predictions. These are the 112 teams that I think will advance to bracket play by finishing 1st or 2nd in their group:

Kentucky, Akron, Villanova, Vanderbilt, Kansas, GA Southern, Wisconsin, Chattanooga, Arizona, TX Southern, Duke, W. Michigan, Virginia, Evansville, Gonzaga, Stony Brook, Iowa St., Clemson, Baylor, Belmont, N. Carolina, New Mexico St., SMU, NC Central, Maryland, Kansas St., N. Iowa, Mercer, VCU, Auburn, ND, Minnesota, Wichita St., UAB, Oklahoma, Albany, Utah, UL Monroe, Arkansas, Cal, Louisville, William & Mary, Kent St., Providence, Michigan St., FL Gulf Coast, W. Virginia, N. Dakota St., Georgetown, Winthrop, San Diego St., High Point, Oregon, Rider, Buffalo, Northeastern, Colorado St., Alabama, GW, Xavier, Sam Houston St., Butler, Stephen F. Austin, Memphis, Dayton, Toledo, Temple, UMass, UTEP, Davidson, BYU, Michigan, Cincinnati, Pitt, UConn, Georgia, N.C. State, Hawaii, Boise St., Radford, Ohio St., Texas Tech, Illinois, Texas, Iowa, C. Michigan, Wyoming, St. Johns, Old Dominion, St. Marys, Tulsa, Texas A&M, Rhode Island, Wofford, Miami (FL), UCLA, Iona, N. Florida, Murray St., Oral Roberts, Illinois St., Oklahoma St., Harvard, Indiana, Ole Miss, Georgia St., Green Bay, Stanford, LSU, Purdue, LA Tech, St. Francis Brooklyn.

Now, the following 16 groups I predict will have a wildcard team: 1,3,7,10,11,15,17,23,25,26,32,33,39,47,52,56.

I will be charting my predictions throughout the tournament. I figure if I correctly predict 70% of the teams, I'm doing ok, because I suck at predictions. lol

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 1

#1 Kentucky (SEC, 36-0, 18-0)
UNLV (Mountain West, 18-15, 8-10)
Akron (MAC, 21-14, 9-9)
Cornell (Ivy, 13-17, 5-9)
Virginia Tech (ACC, 11-22, 2-16)
Grambling State (SWAC, 2-27, 0-18)

--------------------------------------------------

Week 1

Akron- 60, Cornell- 51
Kentucky- 57, Grambling- 35
VA Tech- 62, UNLV- 53

A bit of an upset with the Hokies knocking off UNLV. Kentucky really slowed the pace against Grambling, I was expecting a 40 point win at the very least.

Week 2

Cornell- 66, Grambling- 56
UNLV- 68, Akron- 63
Kentucky- 55, VA Tech- 48

My goodness! Kentucky looks to be playing down to the level of competition in their group. While they are winning, they aren't doing so as impressively as I thought. Good bounce back game for the Rebels to beat Akron.

Week 3

Kentucky- 67, Cornell- 48
Akron- 67, VA Tech- 57
UNLV- 68, Grambling- 49

These are more along the lines of the results I expected to see, as Kentucky finally started to mesh things together. Looks like VA Tech got their big win of the tournament, as they are starting to fall into oblivion again, while UNLV took it to Grambling in impressive fashion.

---------------------------------------------------------

Here are the standings after the first 3 weeks, with point differential in parenthesis.

Kentucky 3-0 (+48)
UNLV 2-1 (+15)
Akron 2-1 (+14)
VA Tech 1-2 (-8)
Cornell 1-2 (-18)
Grambling 0-3 (-51)

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 1

Week 4

VA Tech- 64, Grambling- 38
Kentucky- 81, Akron- 47
Cornell- 58, UNLV- 53

Now that is definitely the Kentucky I'm used to seeing. VA Tech, meanwhile, held Grambling to 15 second half points in their victory, while UNLV gets mildly upset for the second time so far.

Week 5

Kentucky- 73, UNLV- 52
Akron- 68, Grambling- 64 (OT)
VA Tech- 66, Cornell- 55

Wow! That would have been a huge letdown had Akron let Grambling beat them, even in overtime. Looks like Kentucky is hitting their stride and pulling away in this group, and VA Tech is keeping in the mix of things.

Week 6

Cornell- 66, Akron- 56
Kentucky- 91, Grambling- 52
VA Tech- 60, UNLV- 58

Well, Kentucky was Kentucky in this game. And how about UNLV falling on their faces again, this time the victims of a buzzer beater. Akron hasn't helped their cause either.

------------------------------------------

Standings after 6 weeks, with point differential in parenthesis.

Kentucky 6-0 (+144)
VA Tech 4-2 (+31)
Cornell 3-3 (-14)
Akron 3-3 (-28)
UNLV 2-4 (-13)
Grambling St. 0-6 (-120)

[collegesportsfanms]

That's all for now guys, my plan is to get 1 group a day done, but since I'm doing this at work, I'll probably be taking breaks among the posts within the group. This is so that I can actually get some work done, and also to add to the suspense, and see what kind of comments I get from each group.

For right now, are you guys liking the format? Last time I did 3-3-3-1 on the weeks, and I will this time too. I like how it works. The weekly reports will stay short in order to get through the groups, but if you guys want to see more added to it, something like a buzzer beater or an outstanding scorer, I can add names to the post. For instance "Player A hit a buzzer beater, or player B had 30 points" stuff like that. Let me know. I'm writing for myself, but I'm also writing for you guys.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 1

Week 7

Cornell- 56, Grambling- 38
UNLV- 61, Akron- 52
Kentucky- 79, VA Tech- 66

Much needed win for UNLV to get back in the thick of things. Kentucky beating VA Tech has all but clinched group 1 for the Wildcats, but what an effort by the Hokies.

Week 8

Kentucky- 63, Cornell- 50
VA Tech- 67, Akron- 66 (OT)
UNLV- 64, Grambling- 41

A couple 13 point wins in a row for Kentucky, looks like they are starting to sleepwalk through the group a little bit. Huge loss for Akron, as they are now 1-1 in OT games, but that one may have just spoiled their chances to advance. UNLV is back in the mix now.

Week 9

VA Tech- 75, Grambling- 53
Kentucky- 64, Akron- 35
UNLV- 70, Cornell- 67 (OT)

Huge win for UNLV who has put themselves right back in the running for 2nd place. Akron, on the other hand, scored just 9 points in the 2nd half against Kentucky. Yikes. VA Tech looks to be in great shape with a nice win over Grambling.

Standings after 9 weeks, with point differential in parenthesis.

Kentucky 9-0 (+199)
VA Tech 6-3 (+41)
UNLV 5-4 (+22)
Cornell 4-5 (-12)
Akron 3-6 (-67)
Grambling 0-9 (-183)

Week 10 Schedule

Kentucky @ UNLV
Grambling @ Akron
VA Tech @ Cornell

Kentucky has clinched the group and is playing for an undefeated run through group play. UNLV needs this win, as a loss would be damaging for even a wildcard berth. Grambling and Akron are eliminated, and Cornell needs to beat VA Tech to even have a chance. If UNLV can somehow beat Kentucky and VA Tech loses to Cornell, then we would have a tie for 2nd. If UNLV loses to Kentucky and Cornell beats VA Tech, we'll have a tie for 3rd and the wildcard spot.

[collegesportsfanms]

Group 1

Week 10

Kentucky- 66, UNLV- 51
Akron- 68, Grambling- 55
VA Tech- 58, Cornell- 57

Kentucky finishes off the unbeaten run, and VA Tech survives a furious rally by Cornell, while Akron beats Grambling in a "who cares" game.

--------------------------------

Final Group 1 Standings

#1- Kentucky 10-0 (+214)
#2- VA Tech 7-3 (+42)
#3- UNLV 5-5 (+7)
#4- Cornell 4-6 (-13)
#5- Akron 4-6 (-54)
#6- Grambling 0-10 (-196)

A dominating performance by the Wildcats, who with the perfect record and great point differential has a very, very good shot to be the #1 seed in bracket play. VA Tech came out of nowhere to finish 2nd in the group. Well, I did say I wanted some lower teams to advance, I just didn't think it would be in the first group. UNLV takes 3rd, but their wildcard hopes are feint at best with a 5-5 record.