Werewolf XXIII - Lost - Game Over! Survivors win! - Page 16

Blade6119 · 02-13-2006, 08:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Hmmmm... Very interesting turn of events overnight. I'm not sure what to believe at this point.

Something I find very interesting is that Blade states the following:

If true, why would he post this? If he is truly on the survivors side, wouldn't he want to keep this to himself and let the others attack him? It sounds like drawing an attack to him would hurt the others - it would take away one of their night kills and possibly take down one of them too (his "drastically hurt" comment).

He obviously felt that he needed a role reveal to clear his name, but there are a couple of things that trouble me about it:

1) It was hours and hours before the voting deadline and Blade doesn't have many votes on him at all (maybe 1, I think...) - seems too early for a role reveal.

2) He gave away the element of surprise (and a huge advantage for us survivors) by telling the others that he can't be killed by them. THAT'S A BIG GIFT THAT HE JUST GAVE TO THE OTHERS IF TRUE! And I don't think he needed to include that information as part of his role reveal. So why did he? Maybe to explain why the others don't kill him tonight (and tomorrow night, etc.) if he avoids lynching.

I'm not saying I don't believe him, but it deserves more scrutiny.

If you read all my posts there is a 20% chance i die as well if they attack me...while yes, taking two with me would do wonders for the rest of the good guys, i would be dead. Im a selfish person and intend to win this game(i dont consider my team wining after i die a win for me)...20% is more chance then i wanted to take. Im hoping that 80% they lose 1-2 without killing me scares them to death and prevents them trying to attack me. And if they still did and hit the 20% they lose 2. Can they really afford to give up two others to kill me when all i know is mckerney was targeted for a failed assasination on night one? I ask you that mckerney...if you think they can, then we might be in a lot deeper trouble then i thought.

Alan T · 02-13-2006, 08:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Hmmmm... Very interesting turn of events overnight. I'm not sure what to believe at this point.

Something I find very interesting is that Blade states the following:

If true, why would he post this? If he is truly on the survivors side, wouldn't he want to keep this to himself and let the others attack him? It sounds like drawing an attack to him would hurt the others - it would take away one of their night kills and possibly take down one of them too (his "drastically hurt" comment).

He obviously felt that he needed a role reveal to clear his name, but there are a couple of things that trouble me about it:

1) It was hours and hours before the voting deadline and Blade doesn't have many votes on him at all (maybe 1, I think...) - seems too early for a role reveal.

2) He gave away the element of surprise (and a huge advantage for us survivors) by telling the others that he can't be killed by them. THAT'S A BIG GIFT THAT HE JUST GAVE TO THE OTHERS IF TRUE! And I don't think he needed to include that information as part of his role reveal. So why did he? Maybe to explain why the others don't kill him tonight (and tomorrow night, etc.) if he avoids lynching.

I'm not saying I don't believe him, but it deserves more scrutiny.

Or he could be lying about part of it.. ie: usually doing a role reveal gets you killed that night by the others, and saying he can't be killed easily then makes them think twice before targeting him. It seems common in these games that the wolves take out the veterans not on their side early on as they provide the most direction, and Blade would likely normally be a day 1 through 5 target I am guessing unless he ended up with heat on him.

Blade6119 · 02-13-2006, 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Hmm Blade, one of the earlier theories that someone had was that a person was jailed, and then the "jailer" would decide if they lived or died while the jailer was still alive. One person tossed out the idea of the security system making this call. Now that you are saying you have a role similar to or exactly like this can you say whether or not you had any role in the death of Mr.W?

Is that how you know it wasn't just a case of him being lynched?

I had absolutely nothing to do with killing mr. w, and have no idea who did...i think it was a jailer or a jailers friend. i had nothing to do with it...i assumed mr. w would be in prison still today

Blade6119 · 02-13-2006, 08:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Ahh I see, thats why you had earlier mistrust of hoops, mckerney, etc.
Ok, I think I was taking what you said literaly.

exactly...i saw mr. w hinting he had a special role...and he was in a tie with king, who wasnt hinting...suddenly, hoops swaps from king to mr. w...mckerney(who hoops has somewhat defended earlier in the day) comes in very quickly with another...in a matter of like 10 minutes there was a 3 swing vote onto the guy hinting at a special role...that doesnt seem odd to you?

Blade6119 · 02-13-2006, 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Or he could be lying about part of it.. ie: usually doing a role reveal gets you killed that night by the others, and saying he can't be killed easily then makes them think twice before targeting him. It seems common in these games that the wolves take out the veterans not on their side early on as they provide the most direction, and Blade would likely normally be a day 1 through 5 target I am guessing unless he ended up with heat on him.

Im honestly not, but i can see your viewpoint. But consider the show, does my story fit with the capabilities of the security system?

Alan T · 02-13-2006, 08:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Im honestly not, but i can see your viewpoint. But consider the show, does my story fit with the capabilities of the security system?

I have no idea

Never seen the show.

Blade6119 · 02-13-2006, 08:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

I have no idea

Never seen the show.

ok, neither have i...but ask celeval, hes around and hes knows the show

spleen1015 · 02-13-2006, 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

I had absolutely nothing to do with killing mr. w, and have no idea who did...i think it was a jailer or a jailers friend. i had nothing to do with it...i assumed mr. w would be in prison still today

I don't think Mr. W would still be alive today. I think he was 'jailed' just to get us guessing. The fact that post #1 says he was lynched tells me he died because we voted for it.

spleen1015 · 02-13-2006, 08:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Im honestly not, but i can see your viewpoint. But consider the show, does my story fit with the capabilities of the security system?

It is still unclear what the black smoke is. The securty system idea is something I hadn't considered about it before seeing it mentioned in this thread. As far as I remember, it is still unclear what exactly the smoke is according to the show.

Alan T · 02-13-2006, 08:33 AM

Just a morning update, with a little over 12 hours till lynch:

Pennywise 3 (Blade, mckerney, Hoops)
Spleen 1 (Raiders)
Raiders 1 (Spleen)
Mckerney 1 (Alan T)

Celeval · 02-13-2006, 08:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

ok, neither have i...but ask celeval, hes around and hes knows the show

Maybe.

The jailor pans out - the security system in the show has nothing at all to do with the jail that camp 2 dug out. The security system is apparently (I say apparently because in the show it's not really been figured out) guarding the island or the interior of the island. It may or may not be associated with the hatches; may or may not be associated with the others. It's been aggressive (killing the pilot while stationary... well, up in a tree at least), forgiving (staring Locke/Eko in the face and letting them go), and has changed its "mind" at least one (leaving Locke once, going after him a second time).

KWhit · 02-13-2006, 08:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Celeval

Maybe.

The jailor pans out - the security system in the show has nothing at all to do with the jail that camp 2 dug out. The security system is apparently (I say apparently because in the show it's not really been figured out) guarding the island or the interior of the island. It may or may not be associated with the hatches; may or may not be associated with the others. It's been aggressive (killing the pilot while stationary... well, up in a tree at least), forgiving (staring Locke/Eko in the face and letting them go), and has changed its "mind" at least one (leaving Locke once, going after him a second time).

Yep. The smoke is not known to be the security system. That is just a theory so far. The show has not made it clear exactly what the smoke is. It does seem clear, however, that the smoke isn't on anybody's side at this point.

mckerney · 02-13-2006, 08:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Hmmmm... Very interesting turn of events overnight. I'm not sure what to believe at this point.

Something I find very interesting is that Blade states the following:

If true, why would he post this? If he is truly on the survivors side, wouldn't he want to keep this to himself and let the others attack him? It sounds like drawing an attack to him would hurt the others - it would take away one of their night kills and possibly take down one of them too (his "drastically hurt" comment).

He obviously felt that he needed a role reveal to clear his name, but there are a couple of things that trouble me about it:

1) It was hours and hours before the voting deadline and Blade doesn't have many votes on him at all (maybe 1, I think...) - seems too early for a role reveal.

2) He gave away the element of surprise (and a huge advantage for us survivors) by telling the others that he can't be killed by them. THAT'S A BIG GIFT THAT HE JUST GAVE TO THE OTHERS IF TRUE! And I don't think he needed to include that information as part of his role reveal. So why did he? Maybe to explain why the others don't kill him tonight (and tomorrow night, etc.) if he avoids lynching.

I'm not saying I don't believe him, but it deserves more scrutiny.

I agree with some of the points you make, it's something I've been mulling over. He comes out with information that he could only get through a special role, and if true is unverfiable because it requires others to come out and reveal their special role. Also, if the fact that it's bad for the others to attack him is true, it's not benficial to give away. According to what he said his role is, if he comes out and says he's some kind of seer and they attack him, the worst thing that happens is he dies and one or two of the others die, though there's a 4 in 5 chance that what ends up happening.

Honestly, I'm still not sure what to think about all of this.

saldana · 02-13-2006, 09:07 AM

ok, this whole security system thing is gonna take me a while to mull over before i decide what i think...i have to do some show research i think.

Blade6119 · 02-13-2006, 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Yep. The smoke is not known to be the security system. That is just a theory so far. The show has not made it clear exactly what the smoke is. It does seem clear, however, that the smoke isn't on anybody's side at this point.

According to ardent the black smoke is the security system...my role is the black smoke, and when i told hoops i wasnt the security system ardent PMd me telling me they are one and the same.

Blade6119 · 02-13-2006, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney

He comes out with information that he could only get through a special role, and if true is unverfiable because it requires others to come out and reveal their special role.

I know for a fact two people besides myself can confirm that night action, you not being one of them...im not going to ask them to come forward, but im quite positive my comments have struck home with those it was intended to do so with...Im earning trust bit by bit with people i want to. Im also giving trust bit by bit. But i dont want others to come out with their roles...im generally as clueless as you all are...so im working to establish a circle of trust off the information i have been given...hopefully they trust me now, and as i continue to work with the villagers i gain more trust.

You are one of the two key votes that got a special villager killed yesterday then come out firing against me today...odd?

Blade6119 · 02-13-2006, 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney

Also, if the fact that it's bad for the others to attack him is true, it's not benficial to give away.

It is for me...by them knowing the facts i hope they wont attack me. As i said, 20% is more then i want to risk for death. So im letting them know on the chance they think 20% is good odds its going to cost them.

I want to survive...i die, i dont win...i live, i have a shot at winning...im going to do what it takes to win(and that means me alive to do it)

Blade6119 · 02-13-2006, 09:50 AM

hey celeval, want me to give you a big helping hand in your understanding of all this?

mckerney · 02-13-2006, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

I know for a fact two people besides myself can confirm that night action, you not being one of them...im not going to ask them to come forward, but im quite positive my comments have struck home with those it was intended to do so with...Im earning trust bit by bit with people i want to. Im also giving trust bit by bit. But i dont want others to come out with their roles...im generally as clueless as you all are...so im working to establish a circle of trust off the information i have been given...hopefully they trust me now, and as i continue to work with the villagers i gain more trust.

You are one of the two key votes that got a special villager killed yesterday then come out firing against me today...odd?

I'm hardly coming out firing, just trying to decide what I think about the claims that you've made.

Alan T · 02-13-2006, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Right now the distrust list is Alan T, Desnudo, and Pennywise. I'm not arrogant enough to think that all three are others, but if at least one of them is not an other I'm completely off my game.

It feels like sides are beginning to be drawn here - hope I'm aligning with the correct people.

Thats ok with me, as you are on my slight distrust list right now as well, after your flip flop off of king to Mr. W on day 1. I try not to base too much on day 1 votes, but also on the actions thereafter. You have been providing alot of valuable information since that vote, some of which I have used to form opinions about others so I'm not hard lined against you. I'm just a little curious to what you were up to on day 1 still.

I don't really have any feel for Desnudo so far, but I still think people haven't convinced me about pennywise who you seem to have a strong distrust for.

No one has been able to come and give me a reason why penny is any more non-trustworthy right now than Raiders is. From what I could see Penny, Raiders and Blade all made a similar action, since that time Blade had his reveal which probably takes him off of lynch lists unless you just flat out dont believe him. That leaves Penny and Raiders, of whom I honestly thought Penny gave a better explanation than Raiders did, and Raiders has had absolutely 0 heat so far.

Right now all I see is Penny is being singled out on a gut feel, a bandwagon has formed, and there is very little competition so far on votes, which likely does not lead to anyone else slipping up or having to put themselves on the line for a vote that we can later use to try to judge them.

Celeval · 02-13-2006, 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

hey celeval, want me to give you a big helping hand in your understanding of all this?

I'm beginning to put together a couple of theories on my own, but I'm always interested. What'dve you got?

Blade6119 · 02-13-2006, 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney

I'm hardly coming out firing, just trying to decide what I think about the claims that you've made.

Fair enough, i overstated....but im going to ask you this. Why come out with all of this information when i wasnt yet about to be lynched? To save my ass? I was in real danger yet, just some questions...its doesnt make sense unless what im saying is true...does it?

Blade6119 · 02-13-2006, 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Celeval

I'm beginning to put together a couple of theories on my own, but I'm always interested. What'dve you got?

In your last post(before the one i quoted) you mentioned several different traits the security system has displayed...one in particular relates heavily to information i have given everyone....

2+2=?

Im not going to connect the dots, but ill give nudges

Blade6119 · 02-13-2006, 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Thats ok with me, as you are on my slight distrust list right now as well, after your flip flop off of king to Mr. W on day 1. I try not to base too much on day 1 votes, but also on the actions thereafter. You have been providing alot of valuable information since that vote, some of which I have used to form opinions about others so I'm not hard lined against you. I'm just a little curious to what you were up to on day 1 still.

I don't really have any feel for Desnudo so far, but I still think people haven't convinced me about pennywise who you seem to have a strong distrust for.

No one has been able to come and give me a reason why penny is any more non-trustworthy right now than Raiders is. From what I could see Penny, Raiders and Blade all made a similar action, since that time Blade had his reveal which probably takes him off of lynch lists unless you just flat out dont believe him. That leaves Penny and Raiders, of whom I honestly thought Penny gave a better explanation than Raiders did, and Raiders has had absolutely 0 heat so far.

Right now all I see is Penny is being singled out on a gut feel, a bandwagon has formed, and there is very little competition so far on votes, which likely does not lead to anyone else slipping up or having to put themselves on the line for a vote that we can later use to try to judge them.

There is no reason other then i think we have a 50/50 with raiders/penny, and i trust raiders more off his play on day one where he stood up for mr. w...penny made a throwaway vote really on king, raiders actually took a stand and made comments about the issue...does that work?

Celeval · 02-13-2006, 09:59 AM

I've already been there. In fact, I think it implies something else about you, which if true I understand your not wanting to be straightforward about.

But just to make things interesting...

Vote KWhit

Blade6119 · 02-13-2006, 10:09 AM

What i have told you guys about my role is true. I know for sure a few know the rest of my role i havent said. Ive given you what i can, if you dont trust me then lynch me and lose a villager the wolves really shouldnt want to try and kill.

pennywisesb · 02-13-2006, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Your misunderstanding me...when i say for the wolves to kill him, i mean make sure he is lynched(like how when he was tied suddenly he got three votes(and one was a swap from king)...if im a wolf, and i see him hinting he has a special role when hes on the block, im going to try and make sure he goes quietly THAT day

If you're following this train of thought Blade, why are you voting for me? I SWITCHED OFF OF MR. W to preserve him. You've also stated in previous posts that my play has been very survivor-ish (I'm going to find the post now), yet you are still voting for me and have actually started a bandwagon in my direction. It makes no sense to me.

Blade6119 · 02-13-2006, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pennywisesb

If you're following this train of thought Blade, why are you voting for me? I SWITCHED OFF OF MR. W to preserve him. You've also stated in previous posts that my play has been very survivor-ish (I'm going to find the post now), yet you are still voting for me and have actually started a bandwagon in my direction. It makes no sense to me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Question is do you want to assume king is innocent...if so then the wolves may have been all to happy to let us do both sides of the lynch alone. Most of the day(about 90%) it looked very certain wednesday would die...king was an option briefly, and then back to just w...Now i say you look at who started that bandwagon(quiet, while a reason, is a nice excuse to kill a vet)...so in my mind i have three parties to look at(if king is innocent..if hes a wolf its you and mckerney)...

Party One:
Alan(first vote on w), bearcat, spleen, desmond(all in order of votes)...thats a fairly nice looking group for a wolf

Party Two:
Raiders, Penny (look like they defend a villager, and if king is a wolf they look even safer later)

Party Three:
Schmidty, Swaggs, Kwhit(all very quiet day ones...id be willing to bet a lot of money one is bad)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Alan voted wednesday...which i dont like...knowing his play style that makes me want to trust him...penny and raiders pique my interest with their king votes...id imagine one wolf on w, one on king, one on one of the others, and one other somewhere random...so since w was good, i know im good, raiders and penny catch my interest.

Sun and desmond would seem good, as i cant imagine the wolves killing someone soo linked soo early. Leaving schmidty swaggs and kwhit, of which i think 1 is a wolf...thats good odds to me

If you look at that, i see it as 50/50 odds one of you or raiders are guilty...its just an odds game...i think a wolf voted for mr. w, maybe two...but even with two i have worse odds...

spleen1015 · 02-13-2006, 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Celeval

I've already been there. In fact, I think it implies something else about you, which if true I understand your not wanting to be straightforward about.

But just to make things interesting...

Vote KWhit

Bah! Knowing for sure that KWhit is a survivor, this vote bothers me. The only conclusion I draw is that you're an 'other'. If you weren't why would you vote for him? He's a good guy.

pennywisesb · 02-13-2006, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

...penny made a throwaway vote really on king, raiders actually took a stand and made comments about the issue...does that work?

I guess I dont' understand how that was a throwaway vote. I voted to save Mr. W, by tying the current lynch vote. It wasn't until after I voted that a couple of others threw their votes at Mr. W and made my vote null. Notice that one of those players was Hoops, who seems to be confident I'm an "other" as well which is definately putting him way up on my suspicion meter since he just seems to be following whatever Blade is throwing out.

Blade6119 · 02-13-2006, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Bah! Knowing for sure that KWhit is a survivor, this vote bothers me. The only conclusion I draw is that you're an 'other'. If you weren't why would you vote for him? He's a good guy.

i tend to trust kwhit, but i dont know how you trust him 100%...i dont even trust anyone over like 65% right now...

Either way, i think his vote was intended to create a closer vote then it was

Blade6119 · 02-13-2006, 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pennywisesb

I guess I dont' understand how that was a throwaway vote. I voted to save Mr. W, by tying the current lynch vote. It wasn't until after I voted that a couple of others threw their votes at Mr. W and made my vote null. Notice that one of those players was Hoops, who seems to be confident I'm an "other" as well which is definately putting him way up on my suspicion meter since he just seems to be following whatever Blade is throwing out.

In my mind it came after the swap, so if true i apologize...let me go back and look at the timing.

KWhit · 02-13-2006, 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Celeval

I've already been there. In fact, I think it implies something else about you, which if true I understand your not wanting to be straightforward about.

But just to make things interesting...

Vote KWhit

Whatchu talkin' bout Willis?

Alan T · 02-13-2006, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

In my mind it came after the swap, so if true i apologize...let me go back and look at the timing.

no, thats what I have been trying to say. I don't understand the run on penny. He tied it up with king and Mr. W. Afterwhich hoops untied it by switching.

In my mind, I dont know that penny is innocent, but alot of people seem more suspicious to me than him right now.

spleen1015 · 02-13-2006, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pennywisesb

I guess I dont' understand how that was a throwaway vote. I voted to save Mr. W, by tying the current lynch vote. It wasn't until after I voted that a couple of others threw their votes at Mr. W and made my vote null. Notice that one of those players was Hoops, who seems to be confident I'm an "other" as well which is definately putting him way up on my suspicion meter since he just seems to be following whatever Blade is throwing out.

I have the same strong conviction that hoops is a good guy as I have with KWhit. They both have raised the same red flag identifying themselves as surviviors to me.

Maybe it is you that is the bad guy...?

Hell, we're probably way off, going down the wrong road.

Maybe Blade is a bad guy, telling us all of this stuff to save his arse.

spleen1015 · 02-13-2006, 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

i tend to trust kwhit, but i dont know how you trust him 100%...i dont even trust anyone over like 65% right now...

Either way, i think his vote was intended to create a closer vote then it was

I will reveal why I trust KWhit and hoops on Day 3.

Blade6119 · 02-13-2006, 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Whatchu talkin' bout Willis?

Id prefer he didnt discuss it to be honest...but i guess its really up to him

saldana · 02-13-2006, 10:32 AM

ok, i cant decide what to make of blade at this point, but there is one thing that i am pretty sure about.

vote celeval

i would prefer not to explain in depth, but his behavior bothers me significantly enough for me to believe he is an other.

hoopsguy · 02-13-2006, 10:33 AM

I'm not going to be terribly active in this thread until I get home from work but I'm sneaking a peek when I get a chance.

Pennywise, I'm not confident you are an other. I'm less than 50% sure of you. But if I'm going along with Blade's idea that there was an "other" vote on King, then there are only three people to look at: Blade, Raiders, and you. And I'm less confident in you than I am in the other two.

Am I sure that is the right direction to look at today? Nope, not at all. But it is where I'm sitting for now until something better comes along.

In terms of following Blade, I diverged from him in a pretty big way when I switched my vote on Day 1. I'm not particularly happy with the results from Day 1 right now, particularly with my vote playing a (perhaps "the" is more appropriate) signifiant role in the Mr. W lynch, but anyone who says that I'm blindly following Blade is off-base. I have no role-based allegiances, unless I know with 100% certainty that someone is a survivor.

Celeval, I'm pretty darn close to that 100% threshold on KWhit. If you are a survivor I would hope that you would look elsewhere for your vote today.

spleen1015 · 02-13-2006, 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana

ok, i cant decide what to make of blade at this point, but there is one thing that i am pretty sure about.

vote celeval

i would prefer not to explain in depth, but his behavior bothers me significantly enough for me to believe he is an other.

I'm with you on Celeval. His vote for KWhit says a lot to me.

pennywisesb · 02-13-2006, 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Looking at you[Blade is referring to me], i see this(if wolf)...you defend a villager, not apart of the lynch vote, and cast a tie vote...all solid villager moves...making key villager moves is suspicious(odd how that works)...and if king is bad it looks even better later.

Blade mentioned this either yesterday, or saturday, and I thought it was pretty convenient as far as trying to get me lynched. Basically he's stating that I have done nothing but solid villager moves, but because of that, I'm suspicious. It seems pretty hard for me to argue or persuade him in this matter when he feels this way. I just hope the rest of the survivors don't subscribe to this train of thought because if I'm lynched, we'll be another survivor down with not awhole lot else to go on in the future.

Alan T · 02-13-2006, 10:41 AM

Blade in case this helps, this is day1

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Updated list, sorry for the ommission:

(67) Blade Votes Mckerney (1)
(115) hoops votes Taz (lol)
(121) hoops UNVOTES taz (lol)
(121) hoops Votes Tanglewood (1)
(138) Alan Votes Mr. Wednesday (1)
(147) Sndvls Votes Grammaticus (1)
(151) saldana votes Alan (1)
(162) Blade UNVOTES Mckerney (0)
(162) Blade votes Raiders Army (1)
(168) Grammaticus votes desmond (1)
(181) Bearcat votes Mr. Wednesday (2)
(182) Spleen votes Mr. Wednesday (3)
(190) Kwhit Votes Rpi (1)
(208) Schmidty votes blade (1)
(210) Swaggs votes Blade (2)
(213) King votes Raiders army (2)
(217) Raiders Army votes king (1)
(222) Desmond votes Mr. Wednesday (4)
(226) Mr. Wednesday votes Rpi (2)
(232) Celeval votes Alan T (2)
(235) Blade UNVOTES Raiders Army (1)
(235) Blade votes King (2)
(241) Hoops UNVOTES Tanglewood (0)
(241) Hoops votes King (3)
(242) Mr. Wednesday UNVOTES rpi (1)
(242) Mr. Wednesday Votes king (4)
(268) king UNVOTES Raiders Army (0)
(268) king votes Mr. Wednesday (5)
(276) pennyweis votes king (5)
(281) Hoops UNVOTES King (4)
(281) Hoops Votes Mr. Wednesday (6)
(288) mckerney votes Mr. wednesday (7)
(308) Desnudo votes Mr. Wednesday (8)

spleen1015 · 02-13-2006, 10:43 AM

Blade has 26% of the posts in this thread. Sheesh!

Alan T · 02-13-2006, 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Blade has 26% of the posts in this thread. Sheesh!

Yeah, he hasn't posted as much as normal, but give him a little time. If he is stilla round by day 5, it should be higher

SnDvls · 02-13-2006, 11:06 AM

finally got caught up from my last reading on pg 11. 5 pages is a bit much. I can see people getting lost and not caught up. I'll post some thoughts in a moment.

Celeval · 02-13-2006, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Bah! Knowing for sure that KWhit is a survivor, this vote bothers me. The only conclusion I draw is that you're an 'other'. If you weren't why would you vote for him? He's a good guy.

See, that's the difference - I don't know for sure he's a survivor. If there's a red flag in his posts so far, then I've missed it. I do see a common thread in some things, and understand that, but it doesn't match up with what I got in my PM. There's even some different terminology. I don't know whether it was AE not being careful with the wordings he used; or if there were specifically chosen things that are different - but from my POV, there's something different there.

I was on the plane. I survived the crash, in one of the two sections. I don't know anyone else for sure... but there are a small group of people at this point who are very confident - to the point of 100% - of each other.

At that point, I have to ask why. Either there's something shared between them, out of the original PMs, that confirms it to each other... if so, then it's not in mine, or I haven't noticed it... or there's another reason for them to be so supportive of each other. Could mean the group is Others, but I don't know if thats subtle enough. Could be that there is a pre-existing relationship between some of the survivors, and those survivors know who the other half of their pair is - Ana Lucia & Jack, Boone & Shannon, the marshall & Kate, etc.

I threw out KWhit because he had 100% backing from someone, and I don't know or trust why.

spleen1015 · 02-13-2006, 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Celeval

See, that's the difference - I don't know for sure he's a survivor. If there's a red flag in his posts so far, then I've missed it. I do see a common thread in some things, and understand that, but it doesn't match up with what I got in my PM. There's even some different terminology. I don't know whether it was AE not being careful with the wordings he used; or if there were specifically chosen things that are different - but from my POV, there's something different there.

I was on the plane. I survived the crash, in one of the two sections. I don't know anyone else for sure... but there are a small group of people at this point who are very confident - to the point of 100% - of each other.

At that point, I have to ask why. Either there's something shared between them, out of the original PMs, that confirms it to each other... if so, then it's not in mine, or I haven't noticed it... or there's another reason for them to be so supportive of each other. Could mean the group is Others, but I don't know if thats subtle enough. Could be that there is a pre-existing relationship between some of the survivors, and those survivors know who the other half of their pair is - Ana Lucia & Jack, Boone & Shannon, the marshall & Kate, etc.

I threw out KWhit because he had 100% backing from someone, and I don't know or trust why.

I'm not ready to say anything more than I have. I'm not ready to lose the small advantage I think I have. I've said it a couple of times that I am confident that KWhit and hoops are survivors.

You're on the right track with what you are saying though and I will reveal my info soon enough, unless someone beats me to it or figures it out.

spleen1015 · 02-13-2006, 11:33 AM

What's the earliest a wolf has been killed? I am hoping we're able to get rid of one today.

Alan T · 02-13-2006, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015

What's the earliest a wolf has been killed? I am hoping we're able to get rid of one today.

Day 1. But that usually involved either luck or a night 0 with other luck

KWhit · 02-13-2006, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Celeval

I was on the plane. I survived the crash, in one of the two sections.

Are you saying that you have in-game knowledge of 2 sections of the plane? That could be important. Or were you just including some of your knowledge from the show?

There has been nothing that I have seen to suggest that there are 2 sections in this game (not saying it's not true, just wondering how this might all fit in-game).

02-13-2006, 09:50 AM	#768
Blade6119 Coordinator Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Scottsdale, Arizona	hey celeval, want me to give you a big helping hand in your understanding of all this? __________________ *Underachievement* The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. *Despair* It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. *Demotivation* Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html

02-13-2006, 10:09 AM	#776
Blade6119 Coordinator Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Scottsdale, Arizona	What i have told you guys about my role is true. I know for sure a few know the rest of my role i havent said. Ive given you what i can, if you dont trust me then lynch me and lose a villager the wolves really shouldnt want to try and kill. __________________ *Underachievement* The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. *Despair* It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. *Demotivation* Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html

02-13-2006, 08:33 AM	#760
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	Just a morning update, with a little over 12 hours till lynch: Pennywise 3 (Blade, mckerney, Hoops) Spleen 1 (Raiders) Raiders 1 (Spleen) Mckerney 1 (Alan T)

02-13-2006, 09:07 AM	#764
saldana Pro Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Bethlehem, Pa	ok, this whole security system thing is gonna take me a while to mull over before i decide what i think...i have to do some show research i think.

02-13-2006, 09:59 AM	#775
Celeval Pro Starter Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Cary, NC, USA	I've already been there. In fact, I think it implies something else about you, which if true I understand your not wanting to be straightforward about. But just to make things interesting... Vote KWhit

02-13-2006, 10:32 AM	#788
saldana Pro Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Bethlehem, Pa	ok, i cant decide what to make of blade at this point, but there is one thing that i am pretty sure about. vote celeval i would prefer not to explain in depth, but his behavior bothers me significantly enough for me to believe he is an other.

02-13-2006, 10:33 AM	#789
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	I'm not going to be terribly active in this thread until I get home from work but I'm sneaking a peek when I get a chance. Pennywise, I'm not confident you are an other. I'm less than 50% sure of you. But if I'm going along with Blade's idea that there was an "other" vote on King, then there are only three people to look at: Blade, Raiders, and you. And I'm less confident in you than I am in the other two. Am I sure that is the right direction to look at today? Nope, not at all. But it is where I'm sitting for now until something better comes along. In terms of following Blade, I diverged from him in a pretty big way when I switched my vote on Day 1. I'm not particularly happy with the results from Day 1 right now, particularly with my vote playing a (perhaps "the" is more appropriate) signifiant role in the Mr. W lynch, but anyone who says that I'm blindly following Blade is off-base. I have no role-based allegiances, unless I know with 100% certainty that someone is a survivor. Celeval, I'm pretty darn close to that 100% threshold on KWhit. If you are a survivor I would hope that you would look elsewhere for your vote today.

02-13-2006, 10:43 AM	#793
spleen1015 Coordinator Join Date: Sep 2003	Blade has 26% of the posts in this thread. Sheesh!

02-13-2006, 11:06 AM	#795
SnDvls Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2001	finally got caught up from my last reading on pg 11. 5 pages is a bit much. I can see people getting lost and not caught up. I'll post some thoughts in a moment.

02-13-2006, 11:33 AM	#798
spleen1015 Coordinator Join Date: Sep 2003	What's the earliest a wolf has been killed? I am hoping we're able to get rid of one today.

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