Werewolf XXXVI: Resident Evil (S.T.A.R.S. Wins! Post #1424)

[hoopsguy]

Path, must have been annoying over the weekend for me to be casting suspicion at you based on bogus reasons (you and Alan = Zombie scenario).

[Chubby]

I hope everyone is enjoying the game

Sorry about the delay today

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Path, must have been annoying over the weekend for me to be casting suspicion at you based on bogus reasons (you and Alan = Zombie scenario).

I'll admit I had some responses that I couldn't send....

[hoopsguy]

MrW, congrats on the snipe. The list of bad guys is shrinking pretty quickly now. Fouts, and potentially another person, should be able to provide information on scans.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Path, must have been annoying over the weekend for me to be casting suspicion at you based on bogus reasons (you and Alan = Zombie scenario).

I can't speak for path, but when I was a bad guy, it really pissed me off when people were getting suspicious of me for the wrong reasons.

I will say, though, that my action was based almost entirely on the voting pool last night. The combination of seer reveals and indispensible zombie on the block left a very small group of candidates.

[st.cronin]

I just want to point out that several times back when I was in the game I said I was sure Alan was Stars.

I'm better at this game than you, deal with it.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

I can't speak for path, but when I was a bad guy, it really pissed me off when people were getting suspicious of me for the wrong reasons.

In the Tombstone game, I had people saying they were suspicious of me starting 2 days before I was converted. Boy, was that annoying.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I just want to point out that several times back when I was in the game I said I was sure Alan was Stars.

I'm better at this game than you, deal with it.

I said all along I was trying to make it till day 5 where I would pull the Schmidty Gambit. I just didn't make it long enough.

[hoopsguy]

Basically waiting for others to release any information they may have learned in order to evaluate it in the context of what we already know. I think it is safe to assume that Umbrella is not all that interested in helping today ...

[SnDvls]

VOTE FOUTS

have to get back in the good graces of my umbrella

[SnDvls]

DOLA - you assumed right

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Basically waiting for others to release any information they may have learned in order to evaluate it in the context of what we already know. I think it is safe to assume that Umbrella is not all that interested in helping today ...

I think we're a little too close to winning for Umbrella's comfort right now.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, which doesn't (by any means) mean we have the game in the bag... we're trying to dig out the last zombie, with a pool of non-zombies who are going to be actively unhelpful.

[spleen1015]

At this stage in the game, looking at all of the role reveals, etc, Dodgerchick is the logical vote at this point.

VOTE Dodgerchick

[spleen1015]

We're not guaranteed to have had a conversion either. It is possible their victim is vaccinated.

[Mr. Wednesday]

True... the worst case now, I guess, is that there were actually three originals and they managed to convert another, so we have two left. Best case is three originals, failed conversion, with one original left.

[SnDvls]

fouts might want to recheck one of his scans

[spleen1015]

Here is how I see everyone that is left in the game.

spleen1015 - STARS
Mr. Wednesday - STARS possible zombie convert
Chief Rum - not zombie
Fouts - Umbrella
LSG - STARS possibly Umbrella. possible zombie convert
SnDvls - Umbrella
hoops - STARS possibly Umbrella. possible zombie convert
BrianD - Umbrella
Dodgerchick - Zombie

Given all of the information that was out there on Day 3, I think it is mostly likely that hoops was converted. He was very vocal in the early game. He has claimed to be the bodyguard and guarded himself last night. If he was converted, it would be perfect for him to lay this out there, claiming to have protected himself and there be an attempt to kill him and he defended it without finding out who the suspect was. This earns him a lot of trust.

I also think Mr. W. could be the convert victim. If he, path and dodgerchick are the zombies going into last night, I can see their strategy being to kill one of them and gain Mr. W. some trust. It worked like a charm for Lathum in the Tombstone game. I can see it working out here.

[SnDvls]

spleen you really think it's 4-4-1 right now?
I see it as 4-2-3

[hoopsguy]

Spleen, anyone left who wants to cross-claim bodyguard against me is welcome to do so. I've had the role since the outset and I've been pretty consistent in saying I'm STARS without ever indicating I was "vanilla". I'm obviously not a seer type based on my actions against Cronin on Day 3.

Given my role in that affair, it would have been pretty reckless of the Zombies to go after me on Night 3.

Going into last night, the Zombies did not have the Infector. They had shown previously in the game that they had the ability to attempt multiple attacks, before a possible Night 3 conversion. Does anyone think that they did not launch multiple attacks last night? If they launched multiple attacks, is there any way you know that they would fail short of the bodyguard blocking one?

[hoopsguy]

Spleen is listing three people as possibly being Zombie Convert: me, LSG, and MrW.

Since no one is countering MrW's claim of sniper, I feel pretty confident he was the shooter last night. Clearly not a convert.

I know I'm not the convert, have spelled out thoughts on how a sane person should view this in Post #1970, and my night 3 protection of LSG indicates she is not a convert either.

So in my book Spleen is 0-3. And given his horrid voting record all game long (Glen vote was self-preservation, previously voted for two other people earlier in day - LSG and SnDvls) I have him pretty low on my distrust list. Spleen is a more likely convert than anyone he has listed. Or potentially a starting Zombie. Glen being a Zombie does not clear Spleen of being one.

Right now I'm looking at Spleen and Dodgerchick as my two leading candidates for today. Getting information on Spleen is much more valuable than any other candidate, because if it was a Zombie/Zombie showdown yesterday then we do not necessarily have trust/distrust for people based on yesterday's votes.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

spleen you really think it's 4-4-1 right now?
I see it as 4-2-3

I think there are 2 zombies left. Dodgerchick and 1 convert. The STARS and Umbrella makeup is very likely to be 4-3.

Looking at how things went at the deadline, I can't believe that hoops is zombie. There's no freaking way a zombie switches to get the infector lynched.

Guh! This is pretty tough right now. The more I look, the more I don't know what to think.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Spleen is listing three people as possibly being Zombie Convert: me, LSG, and MrW.

Since no one is countering MrW's claim of sniper, I feel pretty confident he was the shooter last night. Clearly not a convert.

I know I'm not the convert, have spelled out thoughts on how a sane person should view this in Post #1970, and my night 3 protection of LSG indicates she is not a convert either.

So in my book Spleen is 0-3. And given his horrid voting record all game long (Glen vote was self-preservation, previously voted for two other people earlier in day - LSG and SnDvls) I have him pretty low on my distrust list. Spleen is a more likely convert than anyone he has listed. Or potentially a starting Zombie. Glen being a Zombie does not clear Spleen of being one.

Right now I'm looking at Spleen and Dodgerchick as my two leading candidates for today. Getting information on Spleen is much more valuable than any other candidate, because if it was a Zombie/Zombie showdown yesterday then we do not necessarily have trust/distrust for people based on yesterday's votes.

I am more than welcome to the idea that someone scan me. It will prove that I am STARS.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Spleen is listing three people as possibly being Zombie Convert: me, LSG, and MrW.

Since no one is countering MrW's claim of sniper, I feel pretty confident he was the shooter last night. Clearly not a convert.

I know I'm not the convert, have spelled out thoughts on how a sane person should view this in Post #1970, and my night 3 protection of LSG indicates she is not a convert either.

So in my book Spleen is 0-3. And given his horrid voting record all game long (Glen vote was self-preservation, previously voted for two other people earlier in day - LSG and SnDvls) I have him pretty low on my distrust list. Spleen is a more likely convert than anyone he has listed. Or potentially a starting Zombie. Glen being a Zombie does not clear Spleen of being one.

Right now I'm looking at Spleen and Dodgerchick as my two leading candidates for today. Getting information on Spleen is much more valuable than any other candidate, because if it was a Zombie/Zombie showdown yesterday then we do not necessarily have trust/distrust for people based on yesterday's votes.

Okay then. I will put a some stock in what you are telling me. If what you say is true and there was a conversion, then Chief Rum, BrianD, SnDvls or Fouts were the convert victim.

[hoopsguy]

Spleen, if Fouts or the "other" scan role in the game did not scan you last night then we are not going to get that information on you during the day today.

Based on that other role not having come out by now, I think there is a good chance that the zombies got the other seer role with their conversion. Hoping that is not the case, but starting to expect it is the longer that we do not have that reveal.

I think it is pretty unlikely that Fouts was the convert after the role he played yesterday. I don't know how to evaluate Chief and Brian for sure without knowing about you first. But if you are STARS then Brian should be pretty trusted for his switch last night and Rum to a lesser extent for his vote (going from memory, believe it was on Glen).

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Spleen, if Fouts or the "other" scan role in the game did not scan you last night then we are not going to get that information on you during the day today.

Based on that other role not having come out by now, I think there is a good chance that the zombies got the other seer role with their conversion. Hoping that is not the case, but starting to expect it is the longer that we do not have that reveal.

I think it is pretty unlikely that Fouts was the convert after the role he played yesterday. I don't know how to evaluate Chief and Brian for sure without knowing about you first. But if you are STARS then Brian should be pretty trusted for his switch last night and Rum to a lesser extent for his vote (going from memory, believe it was on Glen).

I know I'm not the convert, so it has to be one of those people. Let's do this one at a time then.


Let's just say DC is zombie and remove her from the equation.

LSG - Cleared by you because you guarded her.
Fouts - Role Reveal yesterday
Chief Rum - voted for Glen
hoops and BrianD - late vote switch to lynch the infector.
SnDvls - claimed Umbrella by himself and confirmed by Fouts.
Mr. Wednesday - sniped zombie
Dodgerchick - cleared by no one mostly likely zombie

I'm the only one that hasn't been cleared by another person or my actions. So, things look very much like I am a zombie, but I promise you that I'm not.

So, if there was a conversion, it has to be of those other folks. I need to go back and look at when Chief voted for Glen. It is possible that he made his vote early enough that it could be disguised. With you and BrianD switching so late, he may have been unable to switch. Or felt a switch was too revealing. I was up 7-4 before the switch so it looks like I was almost a runaway lynch victim.

What am I missing?

[spleen1015]

Other than myself, Chief has the least amount of evidence in his favor. He voted for Glen when I was up 6-2 on Glen. He also defended a known zombie in post 1661.

[spleen1015]

BTW, I think Mr. Wednesday needs to be guarded tonight. He has one more snipe left.

Mr. W, I see you in the thread. Do you know if you can snipe 2 nights in a row? Your role description doesn't say you can't.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

BTW, I think Mr. Wednesday needs to be guarded tonight. He has one more snipe left.

Mr. W, I see you in the thread. Do you know if you can snipe 2 nights in a row? Your role description doesn't say you can't.

Posted this before I thought about it. Don't answer this question. Damn it.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Based on that other role not having come out by now, I think there is a good chance that the zombies got the other seer role with their conversion. Hoping that is not the case, but starting to expect it is the longer that we do not have that reveal.

We got Umbrella seer info yesterday, via SnDvls (although he supposedly got in trouble with his team for it...)

As of today, they're not on our side, so we have no expectation of getting anything from them.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

BTW, I think Mr. Wednesday needs to be guarded tonight. He has one more snipe left.

Mr. W, I see you in the thread. Do you know if you can snipe 2 nights in a row? Your role description doesn't say you can't.

It's a blessing and a curse, but there are three different players that the zombie(s) would like to off tonight: myself, hoops, and Fouts. Out of that bunch, I'm probably the safest from the rational, who's the most dangerous point of view: because I die if I miscarry, I need to feel pretty confident to take someone out. (There's the emotional, avenge path12's death side, too... but they still haven't avenged Glengoyne's death yet and that's primarily attributable to hoops...)

[SnDvls]

chubby

what is the order for night actions?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

We got Umbrella seer info yesterday, via SnDvls (although he supposedly got in trouble with his team for it...)

As of today, they're not on our side, so we have no expectation of getting anything from them.

SnDvls, I still largely think that Fouts is the Umbrella spokesperson for the seer and that they did not scan SnDvls on Night 2 but instead scanned another target (Alan?). SnDvls chimes in on Alan, saying it comes from the Umbrella seer in order to enhance the story Fouts has presented.

If the theory that I'm outlining above is correct, then where is the IA person? I don't know, as I think that person should have incentive to reveal by now to help us ice this game.

The longer that Fouts is the only one revealing, the more I'm inclined to believe:
1. he is IA (most likely)
2. that IA was the Night 3 convert (possible statistically)
3. that the role is not in the game (seems unlikely)

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

chubby

what is the order for night actions?

I'll ask a more specific one - what is the order for sniper attack vs Zombie attack? The answer obviously would have a lot to do with my guard decision tonight.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'll ask a more specific one - what is the order for sniper attack vs Zombie attack? The answer obviously would have a lot to do with my guard decision tonight.

I was actually getting at zombie attack vs scan

I have a strong feeling there is a person on fouts list who was attacked either after his scan day (or he mixed up his dates on purpose) or was attacked and infected by path.

see the sniper would have to wait outside the victims house to snipe him as that would be the only known place that person would be...and was by the death scene.

so path was returning from his infection attack and that is when he got killed.

also we need to find path's brother timmy he's probally a zombie too.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'll ask a more specific one - what is the order for sniper attack vs Zombie attack? The answer obviously would have a lot to do with my guard decision tonight.

That's information that won't be revealed at this time

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I was actually getting at zombie attack vs scan

I have a strong feeling there is a person on fouts list who was attacked either after his scan day (or he mixed up his dates on purpose) or was attacked and infected by path.

see the sniper would have to wait outside the victims house to snipe him as that would be the only known place that person would be...and was by the death scene.

so path was returning from his infection attack and that is when he got killed.

also we need to find path's brother timmy he's probally a zombie too.

Well scan vs attack doesn't matter since either way the seer will find out that players info.

Scan vs conversion has already been talked about.

[hoopsguy]

Well, Path wasn't infecting anyone. That would have been Glen.

In terms of the people on his lists, if you believe me it doesn't make a difference what the order was for the STARS members.

LSG - I protected her Night 3. Nothing happened that night
Hoops - My vote against Glen (Infector) on Day 4 should be pretty compelling evidence that I was not converted.
SnDvls (confessed Umbrella) - are you suggesting that you were converted?

[spleen1015]

hoops, we were getting into a discussion about an hour ago. I added some more and I am interested to hear what you think.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Hoops - My vote against Glen (Infector) on Day 4 should be pretty compelling evidence that I was not converted.

how is it pretty compelling? we all saw Lathum throw barkeep under the bus in the tombstone game.

[hoopsguy]

SnDvls, you can process the information in whatever way makes sense for you. The vote was pretty set to be on Spleen instead of Glen prior to me asking Brian to move votes with me. But if you want to think I was manipulating the outcome to earn trust you can go with that theory. See where it logically leads, and we can argue about it if that is what you think is the best use of your time right now.

[hoopsguy]

Spleen, jumping back to Post #1976:

While I think DC is a fairly likely Zombie, I don't think we can eliminate her from the conversation around convert. The goal today is to get a Zombie, convert or otherwise. So while you were focused on getting the convert with your analysis, I'm focusing on getting a Zombie and don't care a whole heck of a lot if they are Day 1 Zombie or Day 4 Zombie.

Spleen - involved in runoff against Zombie Day 4, had at least two zombie votes on him (Glen, Path). Self-described "vanilla" STARS

LSG - not converted Night 3, per Hoopsguy. Self-described "vanilla" STARS

Fouts - provided "seer information" that helped capture Zombie on Day 4. Unlikely to be Zombie at this point in the game because of these actions. Self-described Internal Affairs. Alan and I both had suspicions of linkage to Umbrella Lathum on Day 2.

Chief Rum - voted for Spleen and stayed there. Ended with vote on Lathum on Day 2 although initially had cast it for Cronin. One of harder people to pin down at moment.

Hoops - part of late vote swing against Glen on Day 4. Voted for Umbrella Lathum on Day 2. Self-described bodyguard.

BrianD - last vote on Glen on Day 4. No strong feel for faction up to this point. Hard to make case for Zombie with key role in lynching Infector on Day 4.

SnDvls - self-described Umbrella.

MrW - self-described Sniper, no one has challenged his statements on killing Path last night. Unlikely Zombie.

Dodgerchick - last vote on Spleen on Day 4, did not answer when asked to move vote. No ties to anyone at this point in game. If there are two Zombies remaining I think it is pretty likely she is one.

[hoopsguy]

Order of suspicion (from most to least) - Dodgerchick, Spleen, LSG, Chief Rum

Not terribly suspicious of today (no particular order) - Fouts, SnDvls, MrW, BrianD

Certain about - me (duh)

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Chief Rum - voted for Spleen and stayed there. Ended with vote on Lathum on Day 2 although initially had cast it for Cronin. One of harder people to pin down at moment.

Look at Alan's vote run down in post 1868. Chief voted for me, unvoted me, then voted for Glen.

[BrianD]

I'm still wondering if we were on a zombie vs zombie run last night. Spleen's actions did give up the infector, but that could have been very well planned. The infector wouldn't be able to infect again until Night 5 and with only 50% chance. The role has pretty much done its work and would be a good way for a zombie member to gain trust. Give up the infector and be the hero.

I'm not sure about this theory, but it has been bouncing around my head for a while. It also strikes me that Glen didn't realy put up that much of a fight. He made a token effort to argue against Spleen, but it really wasn't much...

[hoopsguy]

Brian, I've had the same thought. Although in that scenario I don't think it was as much a matter of gaining trust as both of them wanting to play their roles as if they were STARS - you have to argue that you are innocent when you are being lynched in a close vote, right? And whoever lost would come out smelling like a rose ... "thanks for making the right call and getting the Zombie! Boy that was close!"

[hoopsguy]

Lets see what happens with a vote here. As yesterday should certainly have proved, I would likely be willing to change votes if compelling information emerges.

VOTE SPLEEN

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Spleen, jumping back to Post #1976:

While I think DC is a fairly likely Zombie, I don't think we can eliminate her from the conversation around convert. The goal today is to get a Zombie, convert or otherwise. So while you were focused on getting the convert with your analysis, I'm focusing on getting a Zombie and don't care a whole heck of a lot if they are Day 1 Zombie or Day 4 Zombie.

Spleen - involved in runoff against Zombie Day 4, had at least two zombie votes on him (Glen, Path). Self-described "vanilla" STARS

LSG - not converted Night 3, per Hoopsguy. Self-described "vanilla" STARS

Fouts - provided "seer information" that helped capture Zombie on Day 4. Unlikely to be Zombie at this point in the game because of these actions. Self-described Internal Affairs. Alan and I both had suspicions of linkage to Umbrella Lathum on Day 2.

Chief Rum - voted for Spleen and stayed there. Ended with vote on Lathum on Day 2 although initially had cast it for Cronin. One of harder people to pin down at moment.

Hoops - part of late vote swing against Glen on Day 4. Voted for Umbrella Lathum on Day 2. Self-described bodyguard.

BrianD - last vote on Glen on Day 4. No strong feel for faction up to this point. Hard to make case for Zombie with key role in lynching Infector on Day 4.

SnDvls - self-described Umbrella.

MrW - self-described Sniper, no one has challenged his statements on killing Path last night. Unlikely Zombie.

Dodgerchick - last vote on Spleen on Day 4, did not answer when asked to move vote. No ties to anyone at this point in game. If there are two Zombies remaining I think it is pretty likely she is one.

So okay, based on your analysis, you believe I'm a zombie because I didn't switch when you asked me to?

Keep in mind that I've been behind with the reading and as the deadline grew closer, I glanced at the last few pages and felt a little bit of pressure to cast a vote, not knowing the backstory on each candidate and who had the most evidence against them. I honestly didn't see a case against Glen. Could I have missed something? Absolutely! It's not the first time it happened.

[spleen1015]

I'm not going to fight a lynch today. I don't have the time to do it tonight and there's not much a can do to prove that I am STARS. I'm unavailable after 7:30pm and probably won't return until after lynch. So, if you guys are going to get me, then so be it.

When I turn out to be STARS, just remember the things that I have been posting. I don't think I am wrong about Dodgerchick and Chief Rum.

You guys are worried about the wrong person.

[Lorena]

With that said, I need to pick up my kid, be back in a few. Hopefully I have time to continue reading but when both kids are home, I get easily distracted.