Werewolf XCVIII - 24 Day Game Over - Post 2899 - Page 16

claphamsa · 07-08-2009, 08:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I disagree -- it looks there's a lot of movement in the voting record, even if you take out any effect that DT had on it.

yeah a lot of people stampeding to kwhitt after DT endorsed him.

DaddyTorgo · 07-08-2009, 08:16 AM

i need to make an excel spreadsheet of what everyone says their roles/powers are because going back and forth to my pile of PM's is becoming tedious

Danny · 07-08-2009, 08:17 AM

Dt, did you get my question about EF? Do you feel really good about trusting him?

Alan T · 07-08-2009, 08:18 AM

I have never seen the show 24, but Claphamsa I am assuming has a role on the show that likes being overly argumentative about everything. Who would that be in the tv show?

Passacaglia · 07-08-2009, 08:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

yeah a lot of people stampeding to kwhitt after DT endorsed him.

I don't know how much clearer I can put it. There is info there, even if you *take out* any effect that DT had on it. By this, I mean that there were votes made before people followed DT on KWhit. Some of those were people following DT on ntn, but even if you take THOSE out, there are still other votes there for us to analyze.

DaddyTorgo · 07-08-2009, 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

yeah a lot of people stampeding to kwhitt after DT endorsed him.

there's plenty of movement in the voting record even before i endorsed KWhit - the moving of BrianD multiple times, and the double run-up-and-down on NTN (how rare is that btw...crazy swing) among other things.

And if you read close enough Clap I did present several options based on what people PM'd to me (one of which was you let's not forget) and people were free to ask me questions/discuss with me/offer their opinion as to which of those options (fully disclosed that i was acting based on my read of PM's people sent to me) we should pursue for the day. I was what...the 5th vote on KWhit? At that point there was

a) sufficient other momentum moving towards him (votes 3,4)
b) it was later in the day
c) he was one of the three viable candidates
d) I made a gut-decision based on the info that I had

So trying to paint it as some sort of dictatorial move by me is pretty incorrect. And trying to get me worked up so that I get emotional so that people think that if/when my vote ends up on you today/tomorrow that it's a personal vendetta is not going to work either.

DaddyTorgo · 07-08-2009, 08:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Dt, did you get my question about EF? Do you feel really good about trusting him?

I don't feel that his dissapearance is related to whether he is good/bad if that is what you are getting at. It's related more towards the character that he is. But that character could be either good or bad.

Passacaglia · 07-08-2009, 08:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

wait... what? we have no meaningful voting record.. since it was an unopposed stampeded. and DT got Kwit lynched for nothing. he should have said, Kwhitt has told me he is a vanilla villager....so it wont kill us when he dies. instead of endorsing his lynching with no info!

vote passacaglia

Also, again I've only skimmed this, but even I am pretty sure that KWhit did not tell DT that he is a vanilla villager.

1. KWhit was NOT a vanilla villager. Did you read his death reveal?
2. DT asked us which sounds more believable -- every 36 hours, or once per calendar week. KWhit's death reveal said he could use his wiretap once per calendar week.

I think this is the crux of your problem with DT. If you're thinking that DT wanted us to lynch KWhit because he was "just a vanilla villager" then yeah, that's a problem. But the reason DT thought we should go after KWhit is because he thought that his power seemed more fake.

Passacaglia · 07-08-2009, 08:31 AM

DT, can I ask what kind of read you have on clap? I'm thinking that I would have a lot more trust in him if he revealed his role and tell us he's good in the thread, then had you confirm that that's what he told you. But if you don't think that's a good idea, or have a better idea, that's cool with me.

nfg22 · 07-08-2009, 08:33 AM

Yeah....I think DT made a good choice....but in the end he was wrong. I dont know much right now. I just know clap is pinging my wolfdar as you guys say. Very aggressive and very little reason. Alot of words, not much thought. I will be keeping my vote inside of my pocket for now but it is leaning that way.

Danny · 07-08-2009, 08:35 AM

DT, are you a fan and knowledgeable about the show 24?

BrianD · 07-08-2009, 08:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

there's plenty of movement in the voting record even before i endorsed KWhit - the moving of BrianD multiple times, and the double run-up-and-down on NTN (how rare is that btw...crazy swing) among other things.

My multiple moves has come up twice now, and I wanted to address that. All of my moves had a reason which should be pretty clear from the posts. My vote for EagleFan was one of the first votes made trying to encourage others to vote and create a voting record. My switch to The Jackal happened when there was a 2-2 tie with PB. The intention here was to see who would start scrambling. I switched over to PB when DT let us know that lynching The Jackal was a bad idea. I then switched to KWhit when DT let us know that wasn't a bad vote.

Day 1 votes have no real reason behind them, and DT was the only one with any kind of information. Better to follow some information than none.

Danny · 07-08-2009, 08:42 AM

I'm off for a while, be back in the afternoon

DaddyTorgo · 07-08-2009, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

DT, can I ask what kind of read you have on clap? I'm thinking that I would have a lot more trust in him if he revealed his role and tell us he's good in the thread, then had you confirm that that's what he told you. But if you don't think that's a good idea, or have a better idea, that's cool with me.

Sounds good to me!

He's been pinging my wolfdar since yesterday, as I mentioned, he was one of the 3...now he's one of the 2 left from that intial "pinging"

DaddyTorgo · 07-08-2009, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

DT, are you a fan and knowledgeable about the show 24?

I watched the first couple seasons (first 2.5 maybe?). Then kinda fell off the wagon. But rest of the family are big fans.

Tyrith · 07-08-2009, 08:45 AM

*lies on the ground*

DaddyTorgo · 07-08-2009, 08:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

*lies on the ground*

Passacaglia · 07-08-2009, 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Sounds good to me!

He's been pinging my wolfdar since yesterday, as I mentioned, he was one of the 3...now he's one of the 2 left from that intial "pinging"

Is it a role that pretty much has to be a good guy's role, or is it something that a wolf could have also?

DaddyTorgo · 07-08-2009, 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Is it a role that pretty much has to be a good guy's role, or is it something that a wolf could have also?

could be either. if he's evil then the role is just a cover anyways

Passacaglia · 07-08-2009, 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

could be either. if he's evil then the role is just a cover anyways

Fair enough, I guess. Clap, do you have a problem with revealing your role?

Passacaglia · 07-08-2009, 08:57 AM

Anyway, until we hear more from him...

VOTE CLAPHAMSA

claphamsa · 07-08-2009, 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Also, again I've only skimmed this, but even I am pretty sure that KWhit did not tell DT that he is a vanilla villager.

1. KWhit was NOT a vanilla villager. Did you read his death reveal?
2. DT asked us which sounds more believable -- every 36 hours, or once per calendar week. KWhit's death reveal said he could use his wiretap once per calendar week.

I think this is the crux of your problem with DT. If you're thinking that DT wanted us to lynch KWhit because he was "just a vanilla villager" then yeah, that's a problem. But the reason DT thought we should go after KWhit is because he thought that his power seemed more fake.

did you read my comment? oh wait no you said you didnt!

my comment was.... what could Kwitt have said to DT to make him think that it was a good idea to lynch him? NOTHING unless it was that he had no relevant role.

claphamsa · 07-08-2009, 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Sounds good to me!

He's been pinging my wolfdar since yesterday, as I mentioned, he was one of the 3...now he's one of the 2 left from that intial "pinging"

becauseof my PM? I don't want people to think you know something that you dont. we already have one dead villager because of you.

ISiddiqui · 07-08-2009, 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianD

Better to follow some information than none.

Exactly. And hey, sometimes it may end up wrong, but its better than flailing around in the dark.

claphamsa · 07-08-2009, 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Is it a role that pretty much has to be a good guy's role, or is it something that a wolf could have also?

pass, if i was a wolf i would have just lied.

Passacaglia · 07-08-2009, 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

did you read my comment? oh wait no you said you didnt!

my comment was.... what could Kwitt have said to DT to make him think that it was a good idea to lynch him? NOTHING unless it was that he had no relevant role.

I read your comment. When I said I only skimmed it, I meant that I only skimmed last night. I've got some work to take care of before I examine it more closely.

As for your comment, I thought I answered that for you: I believe that KWhit told him exactly what his role was (and I think that's pretty well documented in the thread yesterday), but it looked like it conflicted with other roles in a not-very-believable way. It seems likely to me that DT would reach the same conclusion that the majority of us would (kinda what makes it the majority) when evaluating the reveals, so I don't see the need to get hell bent about it.

nfg22 · 07-08-2009, 09:21 AM

I may be wrong but I have a strongfeeling.

Vote Claphamsa

claphamsa · 07-08-2009, 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nfg22

I may be wrong but I have a strongfeeling.

Vote Claphamsa

because i don think we should blindly trust DTs gut?

Autumn · 07-08-2009, 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

because i don think we should blindly trust DTs gut?

It seems like you're discouraging us for using his info on votes, which should only help the wolves. DT, despite yestserday's result, is the most powerful weapon we have. As I said earlier I can't imagine how the wolves can beat us in the end with him. One way would be if we start ignoring his advice, which seems to be your intent.

Day one almost always ends with a villager lynched, it's not like following DT resulted in worse than that.

Autumn · 07-08-2009, 09:39 AM

Anyway, that's a really surprising night result. It seems they do get a "night kill", I'm not sure how the timing worked out with our lynch vote, maybe we can figure that out.

What do we make of two kills? Was one a wolf kill and one a villager/neutral kill? I wouldn't be surprised to know there was a villager who can make a kill. Maybe they knew JAG's role and assumed he was bad since he was a foreigner?

path12 · 07-08-2009, 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

my comment was.... what could Kwitt have said to DT to make him think that it was a good idea to lynch him? NOTHING unless it was that he had no relevant role.

It seems he had a pretty relevant role to me. Being able to dig into a possible suspect's PM's is just about as good as a scan.

I don't get where you're going here, clap. DT is our only known good. He is also going to be the main clearinghouse for information. I don't envy him his role.

Autumn · 07-08-2009, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12

DT is our only known good. He is also going to be the main clearinghouse for information. I don't envy him his role.

Especially given he's the only one who doesn't have a chance with Kim Bauer.

Autumn · 07-08-2009, 09:49 AM

I need to get the voting record in some form that makes sense to me and examine it. But I'm inclined to either go after one of the vote getters yesterday to see what we learn, or follow DT's hunches, which at this point have me looking at clap, who certainly is making some suspicious noise, probably to try to discourage us from following a DT hunch that leads us right to him.

Actually the more I think about that the more I think clap's making a desperation move here. I'll hold my vote for now though.

BrianD · 07-08-2009, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

Anyway, that's a really surprising night result. It seems they do get a "night kill", I'm not sure how the timing worked out with our lynch vote, maybe we can figure that out.

What do we make of two kills? Was one a wolf kill and one a villager/neutral kill? I wouldn't be surprised to know there was a villager who can make a kill. Maybe they knew JAG's role and assumed he was bad since he was a foreigner?

I'm going under the assumption that we've got a wolf and a neutral kill. The "disease" sounds very much like a biological weapon that would be developed by the conspiracy. The throat-slitting sounds much more conventional. The fact that the victim of the throat-slitting was Marwan makes me think that he was targeted for being foreign. I think one of our fellow government members thought he knew something and took a shot.

RendeR · 07-08-2009, 10:11 AM

DT is having connection issues, he'll be on asap.

Barkeep49 · 07-08-2009, 10:13 AM

Hoops has been tied down at a client work site this morning and thus not as available. I'm currently catching up and will be processing any needed actions shortly.

Barkeep49 · 07-08-2009, 10:25 AM

This morning Eaglefan's cell phone once again started tracking. He is now once again available.

Thomkal · 07-08-2009, 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I don't know how much clearer I can put it. There is info there, even if you *take out* any effect that DT had on it. By this, I mean that there were votes made before people followed DT on KWhit. Some of those were people following DT on ntn, but even if you take THOSE out, there are still other votes there for us to analyze.

And when/if we do know the roles of the people who were up for the lynch yesterday we will have more insight into the voting. So there's a lot of potential info we can analyze from the day 1 vote.

nfg22 · 07-08-2009, 10:36 AM

???
EF whats up?

ISiddiqui · 07-08-2009, 10:41 AM

Hmmm... I'm interested to see what Eaglefan can tell us. Maybe we can get some new clues.

EagleFan · 07-08-2009, 11:09 AM

Hi all. I am back but have nothing to tell as of yet. I had to go dark for a day to trigger another ability. I have been PM'ing DT throughout the day with my PM's. I was still allowed to use my 4 PM's yesterday, just not post. That is how he knew I was well.

It looks like a rather disappointing start.

I have a few suspicions based on what I have been reading but want to send some of that DT's way to let him sort things out. I am quite concerned with one event that took place but that is something for "Jack" and I to sort out at a much later date and time.

BrianD · 07-08-2009, 11:10 AM

So do we know anything more today that we did yesterday?

The Jackal · 07-08-2009, 11:20 AM

Bah, that was a crappy night phase.

clap, I'm really not sure why you have such a hardon for going after DT because of KWhit's lynch. Yeah, he was wrong about him, but presumably he received quite a few role reveals in PMs, and with absolutely no info to go on during day one, I think a lot of us were ok with him working up a candidate based on a sketchy role PM. Plus, others were suspicious of KWhit already anyways.

The Jackal · 07-08-2009, 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianD

So do we know anything more today that we did yesterday?

Doesn't look like it, at least not publicly. I'm sure there are people that have learned some things, but I doubt it becomes public right away.

Voting today may have to be based off what could be considered suspicious votes from yesterday, maybe in combination with how DT is feeling.

BrianD · 07-08-2009, 11:28 AM

I've been looking back over the votes from yesterday, and nothing is really jumping out at me. One thing I noticed is that with all of the votes on PB, ntn, and Jackal, nobody really defended anyone and tried to pull votes off of them. People made their own defensive statements, but I didn't see any subtle manipulation to move votes away from them. The only thing that looked slightly weird was the second run on ntn, but at that time, only PB was also targeted.

I'm starting to wonder if both ntn and PB are good...in a game with no deadline and lynches happening as soon as there are enough votes...protecting wolves has to happen much more quickly.

path12 · 07-08-2009, 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianD

in a game with no deadline and lynches happening as soon as there are enough votes...protecting wolves has to happen much more quickly.

That's a good point I hadn't thought of.

claphamsa · 07-08-2009, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Bah, that was a crappy night phase.

clap, I'm really not sure why you have such a hardon for going after DT because of KWhit's lynch. Yeah, he was wrong about him, but presumably he received quite a few role reveals in PMs, and with absolutely no info to go on during day one, I think a lot of us were ok with him working up a candidate based on a sketchy role PM. Plus, others were suspicious of KWhit already anyways.

I have no hard on.... unless there are cuthbert pics up!

What im trying ot say is.... we cant blindly follow DT! yes he has more info, but of how much value is it? unless someone PMs him and says im a wolf, or 2 pm him and say im the seer... its info, but thats it!

he needs to temper his statemtns of possible guilt unless he KNOWS something.

path12 · 07-08-2009, 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

I have no hard on.... unless there are cuthbert pics up!

What im trying ot say is.... we cant blindly follow DT! yes he has more info, but of how much value is it? unless someone PMs him and says im a wolf, or 2 pm him and say im the seer... its info, but thats it!

he needs to temper his statemtns of possible guilt unless he KNOWS something.

I actually agree with you that we can't blindly follow what DT says. After all, Jack is often led down some blind alleys.

You have to realize though that the one person who knows the most about what is going on in this game is DT. Everyone with a role good or bad will be going through him (I can't imagine why they wouldn't) and he's got to sift through everything and try and make some judgement as to what is real and what isn't.

But when you ask him specific questions, that bothers me. I don't want him talking in thread about everything he knows or hears. As he did yesterday, I trust that he will hint in thread when it is necessary.

And though I agree about following blindly, his opinion does carry weight and it should, and he should continue to give his opinion where he feels it is valid.

How others react to that might tell us a lot, IMO.

The Jackal · 07-08-2009, 11:51 AM

Yeah, as long as we don't revert to mob mentality and keep discussion ongoing I think we can avoid following DT too blindly, especially if there's no clear info.

Barkeep49 · 07-08-2009, 11:55 AM

As a note: I am currently in contact with DT, but he's having problems accessing the site for unknown reasons.

07-08-2009, 08:16 AM	#752
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	i need to make an excel spreadsheet of what everyone says their roles/powers are because going back and forth to my pile of PM's is becoming tedious __________________ If I've ever helped you and you'd like to buy me a coffee, or just to say thanks, I have my Bitcoin and Ethereum addressed listed below :) BTC: bc1qykhsfyn9vw4ntqfgr0svj4n9tjdgufryh2pxn5 ETH: 0x2AcdC5cd88EA537063553F5b240073bE067BaCa9

07-08-2009, 08:18 AM	#754
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	I have never seen the show 24, but Claphamsa I am assuming has a role on the show that likes being overly argumentative about everything. Who would that be in the tv show? __________________ Couch to ??k - From the couch to a Marathon in roughly 18 months.

07-08-2009, 10:11 AM	#785
RendeR Coordinator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Buffalo, NY	DT is having connection issues, he'll be on asap. __________________ http://wotlabs.net/s...8/signature.png http://wotlabs.net/sig_dark/na/banichi18/signature.png

07-08-2009, 10:41 AM	#790
ISiddiqui Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Decatur, GA	Hmmm... I'm interested to see what Eaglefan can tell us. Maybe we can get some new clues. __________________ "A prayer for the wild at heart, kept in cages" -Tennessee Williams

07-08-2009, 08:17 AM	#753
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Dt, did you get my question about EF? Do you feel really good about trusting him?

07-08-2009, 08:31 AM	#759
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	DT, can I ask what kind of read you have on clap? I'm thinking that I would have a lot more trust in him if he revealed his role and tell us he's good in the thread, then had you confirm that that's what he told you. But if you don't think that's a good idea, or have a better idea, that's cool with me.

07-08-2009, 08:33 AM	#760
nfg22 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Mar 2004	Yeah....I think DT made a good choice....but in the end he was wrong. I dont know much right now. I just know clap is pinging my wolfdar as you guys say. Very aggressive and very little reason. Alot of words, not much thought. I will be keeping my vote inside of my pocket for now but it is leaning that way.

07-08-2009, 08:35 AM	#761
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	DT, are you a fan and knowledgeable about the show 24?

07-08-2009, 08:42 AM	#763
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I'm off for a while, be back in the afternoon

07-08-2009, 08:45 AM	#766
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	lies on the ground

07-08-2009, 08:57 AM	#771
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	Anyway, until we hear more from him... VOTE CLAPHAMSA

07-08-2009, 09:21 AM	#777
nfg22 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Mar 2004	I may be wrong but I have a strongfeeling. Vote Claphamsa

07-08-2009, 09:39 AM	#780
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Anyway, that's a really surprising night result. It seems they do get a "night kill", I'm not sure how the timing worked out with our lynch vote, maybe we can figure that out. What do we make of two kills? Was one a wolf kill and one a villager/neutral kill? I wouldn't be surprised to know there was a villager who can make a kill. Maybe they knew JAG's role and assumed he was bad since he was a foreigner?

07-08-2009, 09:49 AM	#783
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	I need to get the voting record in some form that makes sense to me and examine it. But I'm inclined to either go after one of the vote getters yesterday to see what we learn, or follow DT's hunches, which at this point have me looking at clap, who certainly is making some suspicious noise, probably to try to discourage us from following a DT hunch that leads us right to him. Actually the more I think about that the more I think clap's making a desperation move here. I'll hold my vote for now though.

07-08-2009, 10:13 AM	#786
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Hoops has been tied down at a client work site this morning and thus not as available. I'm currently catching up and will be processing any needed actions shortly.

07-08-2009, 10:25 AM	#787
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	This morning Eaglefan's cell phone once again started tracking. He is now once again available.

07-08-2009, 10:36 AM	#789
nfg22 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Mar 2004	??? EF whats up?

07-08-2009, 11:09 AM	#791
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	Hi all. I am back but have nothing to tell as of yet. I had to go dark for a day to trigger another ability. I have been PM'ing DT throughout the day with my PM's. I was still allowed to use my 4 PM's yesterday, just not post. That is how he knew I was well. It looks like a rather disappointing start. I have a few suspicions based on what I have been reading but want to send some of that DT's way to let him sort things out. I am quite concerned with one event that took place but that is something for "Jack" and I to sort out at a much later date and time.

07-08-2009, 11:10 AM	#792
BrianD Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Appleton, WI	So do we know anything more today that we did yesterday?

07-08-2009, 11:20 AM	#793
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Bah, that was a crappy night phase. clap, I'm really not sure why you have such a hardon for going after DT because of KWhit's lynch. Yeah, he was wrong about him, but presumably he received quite a few role reveals in PMs, and with absolutely no info to go on during day one, I think a lot of us were ok with him working up a candidate based on a sketchy role PM. Plus, others were suspicious of KWhit already anyways.

07-08-2009, 11:28 AM	#795
BrianD Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Appleton, WI	I've been looking back over the votes from yesterday, and nothing is really jumping out at me. One thing I noticed is that with all of the votes on PB, ntn, and Jackal, nobody really defended anyone and tried to pull votes off of them. People made their own defensive statements, but I didn't see any subtle manipulation to move votes away from them. The only thing that looked slightly weird was the second run on ntn, but at that time, only PB was also targeted. I'm starting to wonder if both ntn and PB are good...in a game with no deadline and lynches happening as soon as there are enough votes...protecting wolves has to happen much more quickly.

07-08-2009, 11:51 AM	#799
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Yeah, as long as we don't revert to mob mentality and keep discussion ongoing I think we can avoid following DT too blindly, especially if there's no clear info.

07-08-2009, 11:55 AM	#800
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	As a note: I am currently in contact with DT, but he's having problems accessing the site for unknown reasons.

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