The Official MLB 2007 Thread

[Crapshoot]

I love Rickey.I have no doubt that Rickey today would have a higher OBP than Pedro Feliz.

[ISiddiqui]

Barry is now 10 away... jacking 745 against the Mets tonight.

11th of the season, not a bad final year (I'm assuming) for him so far.

[Young Drachma]

Indeed. He's swinging the bat nicely this year.

[Ksyrup]

"Henderson said the "bitter" thing about it is that he didn't get to leave the sport on his own terms: finishing on the field."


He can console himself with the fact that not many guys get to finish losing an NLCS by playing cards in the clubhouse.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Jeremy Bonderman has got to be one of the worst 1st-inning pitchers of all-time. Good pitchers, that is. This is going on purely anecdotal evidence, but I swear, it seems like every other game, he's down 2-4 runs by the end of the 1st inning. It's probably not that dramatic, but I can't be imagining it, either.

I guess I wasn't just imagining it. I'd like to see his career numbers for this, because I don't think it's limited to this year:


First inning aside, Bonderman sharp

May 9, 2007
BY CHRIS LAU and JOHN LOWE
FREE PRESS SPORTS WRITERS

If it weren't for the first inning, Jeremy Bonderman would be leading the American League in ERA this season.

Bonderman's first-inning ERA is 15.43. After the first inning, it's 1.18. Overall, it's 4.20.

The trends continued Tuesday night. Bonderman gave up three runs to Seattle in the first inning, then gave up two runs in his five remaining innings.

In the first inning Tuesday, Bonderman allowed a homer on an 0-2 count. In each of his previous four seasons, Bonderman allowed one homer on an 0-2 count. Richie Sexson's three-run homer Tuesday was the first homer Bonderman has allowed this season on 0-2.

[dawgfan]

I wonder if anyone has done a study on this phenomenon - I know I've heard broadcasters mention this before, the whole "You have to get to this guy early, because once he gets in a rhythm he'll shut you down" kind of thing.

My inclination is to think this is just a phenomenon of selective memory - someone observes a particular pitcher struggling in the 1st inning of a few games, decides that pitcher has an issue with this, and then ignores all the times the pitcher doesn't struggle in the first while using the times the pitcher does to reinforce his theory.

Still, it may be that certain types of pitchers are more prone to struggling early in a game based off the types of pitches they throw or the complexity of their mechanics, etc.

[Ksyrup]

I did a quick scan of the boxscores for all of his starts, and it's a mixed bag:

2003 - 28 starts, 17 1st inning runs - 5.46 ERA; all other innings (including relief appearances) - 5.57 ERA

2004 - 32 starts, 21 1st inning runs - 5.90 ERA; all other innings (including 1 relief appearance) - 4.68

2005 - 29 starts, 31 1st inning runs - 9.62 ERA; all other innings - 3.65

2006 - 34 starts, 14 1st inning runs - 3.70 ERA; all other innings - 4.15 ERA


Other than this year and 2005, he hasn't been demonstratively worse in the 1st inning. There were several games where he didn't give up a run in the 1st, but got tagged pretty good in the 2nd and 3rd, but what struck me was how many times he would give up a run or 2 in the 1st and still pitch 6-8 innings, maybe giving up 1 more run. So on certain nights, I'd say the old addage was probably correct. But that's more of a hindsight comment than a predictive quality based on a general pattern.

[dawgfan]

By the way, I'd like to take this opportunity to point out how much Horacio Ramirez sucks. Of course, it's not like anybody saw this coming or anything.

[Ksyrup]

Look on the bright side...ERA-wise, he's only half as bad as Jeff Weaver!

[Ksyrup]

I find it remarkable that the Mariners are at .500 given their awful starting pitching and the fact that the Jose's appear to be the only full-time hitters who are playing way above-expectations. Must be the superlative job of their coaching staff...

[larrymcg421]

Tom Glavine used to have this problem too. He would give up a couple runs in the first or even 2nd innings and then shut the team down the rest of the way.

[dawgfan]

Also, hey, how about that trade for Jose Vidro?

Yeah yeah, he's hitting .298, but it's a toothless .298. Despite a reputation for great plate discipline, he's only seeing 3.31 pitches per plate appearance (ahead of only fellow Jose's Guillen and Lopez and behind noted hacker Yuni Betancourt) and just a moderately above average OBP of .344. And he has no power any more, with a well below-average SLG of .360 while being a lard-ass that is on pace to ground into 29 double-plays (which would be the highest total in the majors since 2000). All that for the bargain price of $3.5M this year (the Nats sent over $4M in the trade), $8.5M next year and an easily reached vesting option to add 2009 to the deal.

Meanwhile, Chris Snelling has hit .250/.400/.344 so far, can actually play the field unlike Vidro, is just 25 and is making the minimum MLB salary. And down in AAA for the Nats, Emiliano Fruto has started 5 games, going 26.1 IP with just 10 hits allowed and 25 K's. He has 20 BB's, so control is obviously an issue, but he's just 22 and is showing he can miss bats and potentially be a useful MLB pitcher.

The sooner Bill Bavasi is fired, the better off the M's will be.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Look on the bright side...ERA-wise, he's only half as bad as Jeff Weaver!

Based off the things a pitcher has some control over, Ramirez has actually been worse than Weaver so far - Weaver, while bad, has also suffered from really bad luck.

Bottom line is, unless they improve, they both need to go.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

The sooner Bill Bavasi is fired, the better off the M's will be.

I had always thought Jim Hendry was the worst GM in baseball. Then I saw a BP article that outlined Bavasi's moves since was hired and I have to say I was wrong. Bavasi is easily the worst GM in baseball now and I agree 100% with your statement.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I find it remarkable that the Mariners are at .500 given their awful starting pitching and the fact that the Jose's appear to be the only full-time hitters who are playing way above-expectations. Must be the superlative job of their coaching staff...

They've been somewhat lucky so far. They're at .500 despite being outscored 150 to 131.

I'd argue that none of the Jose's are playing above expectations - Vidro has been just as mediocre as most analysts figured, Guillen has been about what you'd expect assuming he's healthy, and Lopez is continuing to show the promise he flashed last year.

The thing is, there's talent here - once Sexson's luck turns (he's hitting .143 on balls in play, an unsustainably low rate due to bad luck) and Beltre hits his stride in the warmer weather as he's always done as an M, this is actually a decent lineup, if short on guys with any patience. The only guy that really worries me is Ibanez - he may be hitting the inevitable wall due to age.

The rotation though - assuming Felix comes back fully healthy you've got one of the top starters in the game, and in Washburn you have a #3 guy on a good staff. After that though, it gets ugly. Batista is a serviceable #4/#5 guy, but Ramirez and Weaver are awful, and I don't think Baek will prove to be that much better. The bullpen is decent, with Putz, Morrow and Sherrill doing well in the high-leverage situations and the potential return of last year's phenom Mark Lowe later this summer (though I'm not counting on it).

The M's do have some trade chits in the minors, so they could potentially address the rotation issues before the trade deadline. I'm just not thrilled with the idea of Bavasi being allowed to make any more trades for this team given his track record.

[Ksyrup]

My comments on the Jose's play were due to very low expectations. Washburn could really be helping a good team right now. Too bad he's stuck in Seattle.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I had always thought Jim Hendry was the worst GM in baseball. Then I saw a BP article that outlined Bavasi's moves since was hired and I have to say I was wrong. Bavasi is easily the worst GM in baseball now and I agree 100% with your statement.

Bavasi has done a few things right - hiring his buddy Bob Fountaine to run the draft for the M's has been a huge improvement for the organization and the M's minors are better off now as a result. And not all of his trades and signings have been disasters (the Beltre signing in particular is much better than the average fan gives him credit for given how the market has evolved) - it's just that enough of them have been disasters and have displayed a flawed way of evaluating talent and roster construction that he needs to go.

Problem is, the current roster has a chance in a down year in the AL West to stay in contention most of the year, and it's possible he and Hargrove both hang on to their jobs for another year.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

My comments on the Jose's play were due to very low expectations.

I'm just saying that most pre-season projections for those guys were pretty close to what we're currently seeing, so I don't really see them as over-performing.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Bavasi has done a few things right - hiring his buddy Bob Fountaine to run the draft for the M's has been a huge improvement for the organization and the M's minors are better off now as a result. And not all of his trades and signings have been disasters (the Beltre signing in particular is much better than the average fan gives him credit for given how the market has evolved) - it's just that enough of them have been disasters and have displayed a flawed way of evaluating talent and roster construction that he needs to go.

Problem is, the current roster has a chance in a down year in the AL West to stay in contention most of the year, and it's possible he and Hargrove both hang on to their jobs for another year.

What he's doing with Brandon Morrow is criminal - wasting a year of that guy's stuff by using him in the bullpen. That will look great in 2012.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

I'm just saying that most pre-season projections for those guys were pretty close to what we're currently seeing, so I don't really see them as over-performing.

That's probably true. But they're overperforming based on my expectations!

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

What he's doing with Brandon Morrow is criminal - wasting a year of that guy's stuff by using him in the bullpen. That will look great in 2012.

Yeah, I didn't agree with that either. It's Hargrove's call, and Bavasi didn't feel strongly enough to over rule him on it. The problem was that Mark Lowe is out until at least June (and there's no guarantee he comes back 100% or stays healthy given the nature of his injury) and Rafael Soriano was given away to the Braves for Jack Shit, leaving the bullpen short a good right-handed setup guy. The M's were probably hoping someone else could step up and claim that role, but the fact is that Morrow earned the job and Bavasi didn't say no when Hargrove asked for him.

I'm skeptical Morrow will ever leave his bullpen role at this point, which is a shame - it sure would be nice to see if he could be the #2 guy in this staff eventually to team with Felix.

[lungs]

Brewers finish up a 9-1 homestand and head to New York with the best record in the majors at 24-10.

I know it's early, but my god, I think I've died and gone to heaven.

So are you non-homer outsiders believers in the Brewers or do ya think they'll be crashing back to earth soon?

They head to New York to start a series on Friday against the Mets. There's no way they will keep up this pace so I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop the series to the Mets. Then I'll watch everybody say how they are a fluke and only beat up on crappy teams.

Good thing the NL Central is filled with crappy teams.

[Crapshoot]

The Brewers are a good team, but the problem is that they have no obvious areas of improvement. Braun, Capellan, and Gallardo can all help the team, but unless they want to swap Tony Graffiano, David Bush, or one of the relievers for minor league prospects, I don't see obvious improvement. IMO, they should deal Graffiano by June or so, (allowing Braun to come at that point, without triggering the arb clock early) - and add to the minor league depth.

[Butter]

I think the Brewers are for real, but I also think that one of the gaggle of mediocre NL Central teams will get hot at some point and give the Brewers a run.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

The Brewers are a good team, but the problem is that they have no obvious areas of improvement. Braun, Capellan, and Gallardo can all help the team, but unless they want to swap Tony Graffiano, David Bush, or one of the relievers for minor league prospects, I don't see obvious improvement. IMO, they should deal Graffiano by June or so, (allowing Braun to come at that point, without triggering the arb clock early) - and add to the minor league depth.

Yep, that's pretty much my take on the team. Gallardo is pitching very well in AAA but he is also in his first year at that level and is only 21 years old. There's really no need to push him as I think Bush is a much better pitcher than he has shown thus far.

The obvious place the team could improve right now is third base. If they don't want to trade Graffanino, one of Gabe Gross or Tony Gwynn could be sent down as there are 6 outfielders right now. Corey Hart also has been out with a wrist injury that if it does not improve, he could be DL'ed in favor of Braun. Then again, Braun has a minor groin injury right now and the team is winning games. Why start his service time clock? JJ Hardy is hitting well above average for a shortstop so I guess it isn't so bad that there is a below average offensive platoon at third base.

Capellan could replace Spurling this instant but I'm not sure if he hasn't burned his bridges with the team. Walking out on your team for two days in AAA isn't the best way to get back to the majors. Quite frankly, Capellan wasn't all that impressive last year. He does still have enough upside that Doug Melvin isn't going to give him away, though. I did think it was rather telling that they recalled Chris Spurling over Capellan when Greg Aquino went down.

[sterlingice]

There's good and bad news for the Brewers. They're in the NL Central and that's great news.

They have decent pitching but it's likely not quite as good as it looks right now. Capuano is pitching out of his mind but Bush is pitching quite a bit below his standards so those two will even out in time and revert to form. Suppan and Vargas are both pitching too good for what they are but Sheets is an ace and isn't pitching like one. Similarly, the hitting is doing a bit better than it should but only a bit.

So, there's just going to be some regression to the mean. However, there's a lot of talent there and some good potential- as I said above, last year, they were everyone's dark horse but they just happened to be one year later in arriving.

Having a nearly 10 game lead in May makes you a target, particularly at 14 games above .500 because even this early, you start playing games with "If the team plays .500 the rest of the way, team X has to play .600 or .700 ball the rest of the way to catch them. Then again, we saw this in KC in 2003 when the Royals watched a 7 game lead at the All Star Break slip away in less than 2 months- so it's certainly not a perfect scenario. Still, would much rather be you than anyone else in that division.

Oh, and did I mention that being in the NL Central really helps?

SI

[Chief Rum]

I tend to agree with the Bavasi drubbings here, knowing how he ran the Angels before going to the M's. All that said, strangely enough, it was mostly guys he brought in that won the Angels the World Series in 2002.

[Schmidty]

Biggest FA bust so far goes to the Mariner's Jeff Weaver. 0-6 14.32 ERA and a WHIP close to 3. Ouch.

I still can't believe Detroit got Bonderman for that scrub. Stupid "Moneyfraud" Billy Beane.

[dawgfan]

Weaver has sucked, no question. But even without his bad luck (and he has been unlucky on top of being just plain bad), it's still just a 1-year deal. I have a strong suspicion this won't be the worst financial decision on a free agent from this past off-season.

[Logan]

You guys hear Rickey Henderson caught a foul ball the other day?

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Biggest FA bust so far goes to the Mariner's Jeff Weaver. 0-6 14.32 ERA and a WHIP close to 3. Ouch.

I still can't believe Detroit got Bonderman for that scrub. Stupid "Moneyfraud" Billy Beane.

Shocking........ not.

[Travis]

And the Jays woes worsen

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slu...v=st&type=lgns

TORONTO (TICKER) -- Toronto Blue Jays closer B.J. Ryan will miss the remainder of the season after undergoing "Tommy John" surgery on Thursday to repair the ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow.

The Blue Jays expect Ryan to be ready for spring training in 2008. The surgery was performed by Dr. Timothy Kremchek in Cincinnati.

The loss of Ryan is a major setback for the Blue Jays, who have lost eight in a row to slip to 13-20. Ryan, 31, first experienced soreness in his elbow in March. After consulting with Dr. James Andrews and team doctors, Ryan underwent a rest and rehab program for two weeks. At the conclusion of the two-week period, Ryan was pain free and began throwing.

But after allowing four runs in the ninth inning of an April 14 game against Detroit, Ryan complained of pain in his elbow and stated it was worse that it had been previously. Ryan was shut down immediately and traveled to see Dr. Andrews, at which time he received an MRI.

After further examination, both Dr. Andrews and Dr. Kremchek agreed the best course of action was four weeks of rest. Ryan's arm was tested after the third week of the program, but the pain had not subsided, making surgery an option.

Ryan traveled to Dr. Kremchek's office on Tuesday, at which time "Tommy John" surgery was recommended. Ryan signed a five-year, $47 million with the Blue Jays before the 2006 season. He rewarded the team by converting 38-of-42 save chances and pitching to a 1.38 ERA en route to garnering All-Star honors.

Ryan made just five appearances this season, compiling an 0-1 record with three saves and 12.46 ERA.

Jason Frasor replaced Ryan as the team's closer and has squandered 2-of-4 save chances. Frasor is 1-1 with a 6.08 ERA in 14 appearances.

[Ksyrup]

Looks like Beane's front office may get bolstered by the mid-season acquisition of JP Ricciardi. Man, that guy's having a tough year.

[Oilers9911]

And things go EVEN further south for the Jays. Halladay out 4-6 weeks with appendicitis. Can't get any worse than this....or can it?

[Ksyrup]

Glaus got hurt!

Washburn has been incredible tonight. I hope he/they can finish the job.

[pennywisesb]

A's inked Swisher to a 5-year extension:

http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/new...=.jsp&c_id=oak

The A's announced that the club has agreed to terms with 26-year-old outfielder on a $26.75 million five-year contract through the 2011 season with a one-year club option for 2012.

I think its a good move, he's improved every year so far and hopefully the trend continues.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Oilers9911

And things go EVEN further south for the Jays. Halladay out 4-6 weeks with appendicitis. Can't get any worse than this....or can it?

"Vernon Wells gives up baseball, joins cult"

SI

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Julio does it again!

And again.

[DaddyTorgo]

Dirty dirty Josh Beckett. He's got 5 K's through 2 IP's.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Indeed, and that is where the argument comes down to. For all those who have Koufax up there because of his peak... Pedro's was far better. His peak is so damned amazing (using ERA+, in that peak, he has 4 of the top 25 seasons of all time and 5 of the top 40 - for the other two season, one was limited by injury to 116 innings, but was on pace for being around the 60th greatest season, and the other was an ERA+ of 160, by far his worst season during that run) that it trumps the longevity argument, IMO.

putting it in this context gives me chills that I was alive and a fan during this time.

[DaddyTorgo]

3.1 IP...7K's

[Atocep]

Mets take the series against the Brewers and their 1-4 starters look really good. Pelfrey has no idea how to pitch, though, and is killing them as the 5 starter right now. All he's doing is throwing his fastball has hard as he can and mixing in a splitter or a changeup every few pitches.

Oliver Perez is looking the player he was supposed to be a couple years ago and is proving that the Pirates organization needs to be overhauled because they have way to many pitchers that end up screwed up and either being traded away for nothing or wasting away until they have major surgery.

btw, why the hell was Carlos Gomez called up?

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Atocep

btw, why the hell was Carlos Gomez called up?

That was a huge shock, but he looked great in the field and at the plate.

[henry296]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

3.1 IP...7K's

And then he develops a blister. What else is new

[SirFozzie]

That's ok, the Sox score six in the ninth to win 6-5

[henry296]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

That's ok, the Sox score six in the ninth to win 6-5

I hadn't seen that. i was only listening to the game in the car. Typical Orioles.

[Terps]

Typical Sam Perlozzo. You take out Guthrie who was only at 91 pitches when he left. Guthrie was interviewed after and said he felt fine and wasn't tired. Sam's excuse? It was the most pitches Guthrie had thrown this year and the bullpen was fresh.

Whatever you say, Sammy. It's probably the most overworked 'pen in baseball.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by henry296

And then he develops a blister. What else is new

not a blister, an avulsion. From what I could understand of it, it's like when your skin splits and you have a little hanging-flap of skin (like say from a papercut type thing) and then the hanging skin keeps ripping.

[Ksyrup]

If I was baseball, I'm not sure what I would be trying to avoid more - bad ratings on a Friday night, or the embarrassment of getting its ass kicked going head-to-head with MNF.



Updated: May 14, 2007, 11:01 AM ET
Report: World Series to start on a Wednesday

In an effort to boost sagging ratings for the World Series, Major League Baseball will announce Monday that the 2007 Fall Classic will start on Wednesday instead of Saturday, USA Today reported. A Wednesday start will allow baseball to avoid playing on Friday, which is TV's second-least watched night after Saturday. If the Series goes to a Game 5, it also would go head-to-head with ESPN's Monday Night Football. According to USA Today, Game 1 will be scheduled for Wednesday Oct. 24. If the Series goes to a Game 7, it will be played on Nov. 1, the first time baseball has scheduled a World Series game in the month of November. It won't be the first time a Series game has been played in November, however, as the Yankees and Diamondbacks played into November 2001 after the season was delayed after the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11 of that year. MLB president Bob DuPuy told USA Today that baseball considered starting the World Series on a Tuesday, but that would mean a Series game would be played on a Friday, and avoiding a Friday night game was a priority for the league.

[Brillig]

Uhh, didn't the Saturday start avoid both problems?

Sat-Sun-(Monday off)-Tue-Wed-Thu-(Friday off)-Sat-Sun