POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[Edward64]

I know it's not official, but we know so why not.

[Edward64]

I've always said Joe has the best chance to beating Trump. Some big policy stuff I don't like from Joe but, overall better than Trump.

Some polls seem to indicate the race is tightening up. Should be an exciting finish.

[Lathum]

Perhaps I am being naive, but I just can't see there being enough people willing to sign up for 4 more years of the Trump craziness. I am hoping young people come out and vote because of Dobbs and that puts Trump out of our lives forever as I think if he isn't elected one of these court cases will get him.

That being said the perception is the economy is bad and the world is less safe than under Trump so who knows.

[molson]

For future reference, Oddschecker.com has it today as:

+130 Trump
+136 Biden

Buckle up

(The rest of the listed candidates makes it seem like Biden dropping out is seen as more likely than Trump doing so).

[Lathum]

Predictit has Biden at .53 and Trump at .46

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Perhaps I am being naive, but I just can't see there being enough people willing to sign up for 4 more years of the Trump craziness. I am hoping young people come out and vote because of Dobbs and that puts Trump out of our lives forever as I think if he isn't elected one of these court cases will get him.

That being said the perception is the economy is bad and the world is less safe than under Trump so who knows.

It was pretty close in 2020 and Biden's popularity has tanked since then. He's lost a chunk of his base and is hoping to make it up with Nikki Haley voters. I think the issue is that demographic shifts will likely cost him Arizona and Nevada while his foreign policy is going to tank him in Michigan. It does seem like North Carolina might be in play but who knows (I do think North Carolina eventually shifts blue like Virginia).

The world is definitely less safe during his Presidency. The economy is better though. Problem is that he's too old to actually boast about those accomplishments. One of the issues with putting up an 82 year old man who can't speak publicly much.

[Lathum]

Arizona just outlawed abortion through a law that’s 150 years old. I think that drives the young vote and independent women. Trump has also had to have lost some of his 2020 voters through attrition and because of 1/6. Also who are the people that voted Biden in 2020 and are going Trump now. Some people may sit it out but I have to believe when the runner meets the road they will come out and vote against Trump again.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Arizona just outlawed abortion through a law that’s 150 years old. I think that drives the young vote and independent women. Trump has also had to have lost some of his 2020 voters through attrition and because of 1/6. Also who are the people that voted Biden in 2020 and are going Trump now. Some people may sit it out but I have to believe when the runner meets the road they will come out and vote against Trump again.

That law is in place while Biden is President. So it's not like he has much power to change it nor interest in doing anything to help. But I think the issue is that he barely won the state last time and the demographics are shifting away from him.

As for your question about who is shifting from Biden to Trump, Hispanics. Nevada and Arizona especially. Young voters have shifted too and I'm guessing many will just sit this election out.

You're talking about states that were incredibly close in 2020. I don't think there's been a single poll with Biden ahead in Arizona in some time. And a lot of them aren't particularly close.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Trump has also had to have lost some of his 2020 voters through attrition and because of 1/6.

Remember, I'm saying this as someone who does not believe Trump will put it out in November, buuuuut ...

Attrition I'll agree with, but the number of votes lost because of 1/6 is miniscule at most. If anything, 1/6 (or more specifically the legal actions that followed it) might result in a net gain in votes.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I know it's not official, but we know so why not.

Do we have to? Could we, I dunno, just not elect a President this time around?

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Perhaps I am being naive, but I just can't see there being enough people willing to sign up for 4 more years of the Trump craziness. I am hoping young people come out and vote because of Dobbs and that puts Trump out of our lives forever as I think if he isn't elected one of these court cases will get him.

That being said the perception is the economy is bad and the world is less safe than under Trump so who knows.

I couldn't believe Trump was going to get even a single new voter in 2020 after showing every bit of his ass, but he somehow got millions of them. I feel exactly the same now, and the reports of barely attended rallies and court protests make me feel a little better, but otherwise I'm just resigned to the feeling that all predictions and/or indicators are worthless until it's over.

[JPhillips]

I can't recall what poll it was, but I saw interesting data that showed Biden's lead strongest with those that voted in every election since 2016 and decreasing with every election not voted in. Trump's biggest lead comes with people that never vote.

[RainMaker]

I think another concern is whether Biden will drag down Democratics in Senate races. He's lagging behind in every state I've seen. Kind of like how Trump dragged down people downballot.


Baldwin is tied or slightly ahead in recent polls.

Marquette Law (A+) Wisconsin polls

June 2023 - �� Biden +9
November 2023 - �� Biden +2
January 2024 - �� TIE
April 2024 - �� Trump +2

— umichvoter ��️‍�� (@umichvoter) April 17, 2024

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It was pretty close in 2020 and Biden's popularity has tanked since then. He's lost a chunk of his base and is hoping to make it up with Nikki Haley voters. I think the issue is that demographic shifts will likely cost him Arizona and Nevada while his foreign policy is going to tank him in Michigan. It does seem like North Carolina might be in play but who knows (I do think North Carolina eventually shifts blue like Virginia).

If this November's election ends up basically just being a re-run of 2020, then I suspect the above narrative is correct.

I'm clinging to the hope that what's really happening with the polls is that Trump continues to be at the peak of his support, since his hard-core support never wavers, and a lot of people inclined to vote Democrat are saying they're not going to vote for Biden to send a message. Then, in November, the latter group will grit their teeth and vote for Biden because they feel the alternative is too terrible, and in addition a lot of people who say now that they're going to vote for Trump are hoping (again) that he'll moderate himself, and when he doesn't, will stay home.

Again, hope, not a plan. I'm assuming the worst happens, of course, which is Trump wins, the Senate goes GOP, Sotomayor dies, and this is the last free national election this country has.

One of the issues with putting up an 82 year old man who can't speak publicly much.

Like so many things, this only matters for the Democrat, as Trump is even worse when he speaks.

Plus, we're not that far removed from the main knock on Obama from the right being that he was too well spoken (and wore tan suits).

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

If this November's election ends up basically just being a re-run of 2020, then I suspect the above narrative is correct.

I'm clinging to the hope that what's really happening with the polls is that Trump continues to be at the peak of his support, since his hard-core support never wavers, and a lot of people inclined to vote Democrat are saying they're not going to vote for Biden to send a message. Then, in November, the latter group will grit their teeth and vote for Biden because they feel the alternative is too terrible, and in addition a lot of people who say now that they're going to vote for Trump are hoping (again) that he'll moderate himself, and when he doesn't, will stay home.

I'd still probably put money on Biden pulling it out in the end in a very tight race. I think Trump has benefited a bit from being out of the limelight. And I do think the DNC will be much more organized than the RNC which just seems like a slush fund for Trump at this point. That stuff does matter in very tight races.

But the Middle East is the huge variable in this. If we do get a war with Iran which seems more and more likely, I think Biden is cooked. And we know Netanyahu will do everything in his power to get Trump back.

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Like so many things, this only matters for the Democrat, as Trump is even worse when he speaks.

Biden is the incumbent and has to run on his record. We know Trump is mostly just going to run a nativist campaign and you don't need to be particularly insightful to do that.

It's a huge disadvantage that Biden can't speak about the economy being better since it's hurting him in the polls. Say what you want about Obama, but he'd have been on Jimmy Fallon appealing to suburban voters. He'd be boasting about policy wins at press conferences and events. Having publicized meet and greets with women impacted by the abortion basn. Biden can't do that and thus is unable to control the narrative of his Presidency.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Again, hope, not a plan. I'm assuming the worst happens, of course, which is Trump wins, the Senate goes GOP, Sotomayor dies, and this is the last free national election this country has.

I do hope Democrats don't actually keep doing this nonsense about democracy dying. It's as bad as when they spent years screaming about the Russians taking over our government.

It's just such an empty position and people see right through it over time. Run on abortion or anything else that people might actually believe Democrats care about.

[Ryche]

Between the 1864 abortion law and Kari Lake, I'd be shocked if Biden doesn't take Arizona.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I do hope Democrats don't actually keep doing this nonsense about democracy dying. It's as bad as when they spent years screaming about the Russians taking over our government.

It's just such an empty position and people see right through it over time. Run on abortion or anything else that people might actually believe Democrats care about.

yeah it's like hillary's only ad being "don't give trump the nuke codes"

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

But the Middle East is the huge variable in this. If we do get a war with Iran which seems more and more likely, I think Biden is cooked.

What makes you say this? Every time we have gotten into a war (declared or not), the sitting President gets a significant approval boost for at least a year, the most recent example being the 2nd Iraq War. Precedent is not on your side, but if you think it'll be different this time, I'd be interested in the rationale.

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I do hope Democrats don't actually keep doing this nonsense about democracy dying. It's as bad as when they spent years screaming about the Russians taking over our government.

Republicans have literally passed state bills to severely restrict voting rights and are still trying to get bills passed (and past SCOTUS) that would take the direct franchise away from voters and give it to legislatures (in states where they control those, of course).

Do you think they'll just stop this, if they win?

Run on abortion or anything else that people might actually believe Democrats care about.

On this I agree, especially running on abortion. Everyone knows what RvW was, and that it was overturned, and you can hammer home the idea (with real examples) that certain states have criminalized a woman's autonomy over her body.

[Atocep]

Abortion and reminding people of J6 need to be hammered. Abortion is the obvious one, but J6 still plays well with just about anyone that isn't already voting for Trump. Those 2 issues can also be directly tied to Trump.

I wouldn't put them on the same level as far as what voters care about, but J6 still polls strongly against Trump. Even 60% (it's sad that it's just that low) of Republicans still disapprove of it. It's an issue even my in-laws get really uncomfortable discussing.

[Ksyrup]

Especially if Trump is not only hiding from J6 but campaigning on pardoning all the "patriots."

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

What makes you say this? Every time we have gotten into a war (declared or not), the sitting President gets a significant approval boost for at least a year, the most recent example being the 2nd Iraq War. Precedent is not on your side, but if you think it'll be different this time, I'd be interested in the rationale.

I think the public has shifted a lot in regards to direct involvement in wars in the Middle East. You cite the 2nd Iraq War, but that became incredibly unpopular by the end of Bush's 2nd term. Obama beat Hillary and McCain in large part to his opposition to the war. Trump bludgeoned Hillary in his campaign over her support of the wars. And Biden made ending Afghanistan a part of his campaign.

Polls show little support for direct involvement too. It's why we've seen a shift toward proxy wars and weapon sales to appease the defense industry.

But most importantly, Iran is no joke. That would be an incredibly ugly war and I don't think there is much support to send Americans off to die for Israel. And a lot of Americans would die.

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Republicans have literally passed state bills to severely restrict voting rights and are still trying to get bills passed (and past SCOTUS) that would take the direct franchise away from voters and give it to legislatures (in states where they control those, of course).

And the response from Democrats is running an unpopular 82-year old man who is pushing for bills his base doesn't support and is the weakest foreign policy leader since Carter. It's letting Marco Rubio pick your judges. Keeping Senate rules like the filibuster. Letting a dementia riddled Senator hold up the confirmation of judges for months.

Either Democrats don't think democracy is in danger or don't care.

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

On this I agree, especially running on abortion. Everyone knows what RvW was, and that it was overturned, and you can hammer home the idea (with real examples) that certain states have criminalized a woman's autonomy over her body.

It's kind of the only issue they have. They don't seem particularly interested in any kind of meaningful legislation outside of shoveling money to the defense industry at the moment.

[RainMaker]

Also war with Iran would bring some severe economic consequences home. If you think Biden took shit for inflation before, imagine campaigning with gas costing an extra $2 a gallon.

[RainMaker]

Whitmer won this state by 11% just over a year ago.

Michigan polls

2/12 FOX News �� Trump 47-45
2/18 EPIC MRA �� Trump 45-41
2/24 Emerson �� Trump 46-44
3/12 Quinnipiac �� Trump 48-45
3/18 Emerson �� Tied 50-50
3/18 CNN �� Trump 50-42
3/23 WSJ �� Trump 48-45
4/16 FOX News �� Trump 49-46

— umichvoter ��️‍�� (@umichvoter) April 20, 2024

[Limelicker]

When all is said and done, the experts are going to be absolutely floored by the shift of Black and Hispanic (legal) voters. The Black community identifies heavily with the idea of wrongful prosecution (which most believe is the case with Trump) along with the clear movement of money to help illegal aliens rather than their own communities. The illegal alien shelters being placed in Black communities are also a huge red flag to the people in those areas. You're adding multiple gangs in the illegal alien community to a community that already has gang lines drawn. It's a violent recipe for disaster and the innocent residents in those areas are the ones that pay the price.

Legal Hispanics know exactly what type of people are entering the country illegally. They came here to flee that and don't want any part of that here. They also don't like the fact that they had to work extremely hard to get their place here in this country and now the government is turning a blind eye and just letting people in. That doesn't play well with them.

Democrats know that any movement in these two voting blocks are a huge problem for their election chances.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Limelicker

shift of Black and Hispanic (legal) voters

As opposed to...what other Hispanic voters?

[Limelicker]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

As opposed to...what other Hispanic voters?

Simply to make the point that the members of the Hispanic community that are here legally that can vote have a MUCH different view on the illegal immigration than those that are here illegally. I think there's a large portion of the US population that thinks that somehow the Hispanic community that is here legally is just opening their arms wide to welcome all the people flooding the border. That's not the case at all. They don't identify with them for the most part.

[Ksyrup]

It's the same phenomenon you see in all different scenarios. As a law school student, the bar admissions process is the most unfair thing ever. However, once you're in the Bar, you don't want to see another person admitted.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Limelicker

When all is said and done, the experts are going to be absolutely floored by the shift of Black and Hispanic (legal) voters. The Black community identifies heavily with the idea of wrongful prosecution (which most believe is the case with Trump) along with the clear movement of money to help illegal aliens rather than their own communities. The illegal alien shelters being placed in Black communities are also a huge red flag to the people in those areas. You're adding multiple gangs in the illegal alien community to a community that already has gang lines drawn. It's a violent recipe for disaster and the innocent residents in those areas are the ones that pay the price.

Legal Hispanics know exactly what type of people are entering the country illegally. They came here to flee that and don't want any part of that here. They also don't like the fact that they had to work extremely hard to get their place here in this country and now the government is turning a blind eye and just letting people in. That doesn't play well with them.

Democrats know that any movement in these two voting blocks are a huge problem for their election chances.

This is all vibes-based nonsense not backed up by any data. What polling we have shows a small shift towards Trump, but not the levels you are implying.

[GrantDawg]

"This is all vibes-based nonsense not backed up by any data. What polling we have shows a small shift towards Trump, but not the levels you are implying."

Even with that being the case, a couple of percentage points move in the black voters is devastating to the Democrats. If they don't hit that block at 90%+, they have no hope in winning many swing states. Add that to suppressed votes in the youth demo, I'm just not seeing where the Demcrats hope for success is coming from.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[flere-imsaho]

Well, they'll deserve what they get, then. Trump isn't going to solve wrongful persecution for minorities.

[thesloppy]

*cough* Central Park 5 *cough*

[JPhillips]

It's going to be a close election but there's plenty of opportunity for Biden to win. Polling is largely within the margin of error at the moment or so odd in the crosstabs that it's hard to believe. I don't think Trump is going to win the youth vote and I don't think Biden is going to win the old vote.

There's so much time left. I just don't think you can ake solid predictions in a race this close at this point. We know low information voters don't really pay attention until after the summer and they're going to make the difference in the election.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Well, they'll deserve what they get, then. Trump isn't going to solve wrongful persecution for minorities.

Maybe the disdain liberals like you have for minorities and their issues with Biden is why he is going to lose to such a terrible candidate.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Limelicker

When all is said and done, the experts are going to be absolutely floored by the shift of Black and Hispanic (legal) voters. The Black community identifies heavily with the idea of wrongful prosecution (which most believe is the case with Trump) along with the clear movement of money to help illegal aliens rather than their own communities. The illegal alien shelters being placed in Black communities are also a huge red flag to the people in those areas. You're adding multiple gangs in the illegal alien community to a community that already has gang lines drawn. It's a violent recipe for disaster and the innocent residents in those areas are the ones that pay the price.

Legal Hispanics know exactly what type of people are entering the country illegally. They came here to flee that and don't want any part of that here. They also don't like the fact that they had to work extremely hard to get their place here in this country and now the government is turning a blind eye and just letting people in. That doesn't play well with them.

Democrats know that any movement in these two voting blocks are a huge problem for their election chances.

This is just racist fanfic with no data to back it up. Experts won't be floored because it's been something studied and talked about for years.

[Atocep]

I'm old enough to remember the right saying blacks aren't wrongfully persecuted, they just commit more crimes. Now that Trump needs their votes it seems to have changed.

Maybe former presidents just commit more crimes than the average person?

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Maybe the disdain liberals like you have for minorities and their issues with Biden is why he is going to lose to such a terrible candidate.

Keep driving the wedge there for your ideological masters, comrade.

[RainMaker]

Genocide isn't a wedge issue. You're saying that if a minority doesn't support the candidate you like, they deserve bad things to happen to them.

That sort of gives up the game. You don't really care about other people. And you don't really have an issue with the right's policies. It's that they have bad optics.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Genocide isn't a wedge issue. You're saying that if a minority doesn't support the candidate you like, they deserve bad things to happen to them.

That sort of gives up the game. You don't really care about other people. And you don't really have an issue with the right's policies. It's that they have bad optics.

If you choose a candidate that goes against your best interests you have no one to blame but yourself.

The GOP couldn't care less about minorities. Example 1A is the Dobbs decision. The draconian laws the GOP is putting in place will be devastating for blacks in those states.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

If you choose a candidate that goes against your best interests you have no one to blame but yourself.

Just pointing out that a lot of liberals don't actually care about minorities. Even if they don't support your candidate, saying they "deserve" mistreatment makes that clear. You aren't looking to help, just demanding subjugation.

Originally Posted by Lathum

The GOP couldn't care less about minorities. Example 1A is the Dobbs decision. The draconian laws the GOP is putting in place will be devastating for blacks in those states.

Kind of like the 1994 crime bill which lead to a lot of draconian laws and policies. But as flere said, I guess they "deserved" it for electing the Senator responsible for it.

[Lathum]

You need to use some nuance, especially with a common phrase. No one is saying they deserve mistreatment. They are saying if you vote against your interests you have no one to blame.

Same goes for the Muslim community in Michigan. Enjoy the Trump muslim ban and deportations.

[RainMaker]

What if their interests are in preventing a genocide? It may be a foreign idea to some, but people do vote for the interests of others too.

[RainMaker]

Beyond the weird racist screed by limelicker, there is actually polling and studies that have been done on why the minority vote has shifted. Well shifted isn't the best word as there aren't many people shifting conservative, it's more that those who voted Democrat are just not voting at the same level which skews the number toward Republicans.

But the gist of the studies are that older minority voters have been and still are incredibly loyal to Democrats. They grew up in the Civil Rights Era and saw Democrats do things for them. They saw politicians sacrifice their own political futures and even lives for them.

Democrats have just assumed that would carry on forever. But young voters have different priorities than just civil rights. There are concerns about the economy, policing, health care, housing, etc.

Now the current position of the Democratic Party is to tell those people to shut up and vote or you'll get something worse (the sentiment from many in this thread). A sort of gun to your head approach to keeping those voters in line. But that's not working with younger voters anymore and I don't think the party is prepared for it.

You can also look at the opposite approach by someone like Whitmer. She made a huge effort to fix the infrastructure and removing lead water pipes in a number of communities. She expanded health care, school lunch programs, and day care assistance. Rebuilt a ton of dying roads, got auto insurers to issue refund checks, and increased tax credits to families. She won the state of Michigan by 11% in a midterm year.

Basically I think Democrats should act more like Whitmer. Listen to the concerns and do something about it. Not the current approach of demanding subservience or else. We'll see which approach works in November.

[miked]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Genocide isn't a wedge issue. You're saying that if a minority doesn't support the candidate you like, they deserve bad things to happen to them.

That sort of gives up the game. You don't really care about other people. And you don't really have an issue with the right's policies. It's that they have bad optics.

This "genocide" was still going on when Trump was president, and there is nothing to suggest that he would end it. So why do you have such a hard-on for Biden on this issue when it has plagued all presidents for the last 30-40 years?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

You can also look at the opposite approach by someone like Whitmer. She made a huge effort to fix the infrastructure and removing lead water pipes in a number of communities. She expanded health care, school lunch programs, and day care assistance. Rebuilt a ton of dying roads, got auto insurers to issue refund checks, and increased tax credits to families. She won the state of Michigan by 11% in a midterm year.

.

A lot of these things the dems did try and do and the GOP tanked or nuked them.

GOP got rid of child tax credit, free lunches, tried to kill ACA, voted against infrastructure then took credit for projects they voted against, scoff every time child care comes up, etc...all the while putting laws in place that will cause a huge spike in infant mortality rates and mothers mortality rate/ complications but tell me more about how much they care about the people in Gaza...

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by miked

This "genocide" was still going on when Trump was president, and there is nothing to suggest that he would end it. So why do you have such a hard-on for Biden on this issue when it has plagued all presidents for the last 30-40 years?

Your holocaust denial not withstanding, Biden is the current President and the genocide has ramped up immensley under his Presidency. It's a central part of his administration. Trump is not the one illegally sending weapons and going against his base right now.

But if it helps, I'm not voting for Trump. I'll criticize and have criticized his foreign policy too.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

A lot of these things the dems did try and do and the GOP tanked or nuked them.

GOP got rid of child tax credit, free lunches, tried to kill ACA, voted against infrastructure then took credit for projects they voted against, scoff every time child care comes up, etc...all the while putting laws in place that will cause a huge spike in infant mortality rates and mothers mortality rate/ complications but tell me more about how much they care about the people in Gaza...

Dems had control of the House and Senate during his first 2 years. Him being unable to do any of that stuff despite control over Congress is not the winning endorsement you think it is. Just makes him seem soft and weak.

Worth noting that Whitmer was able to pass all that stuff mentioned earlier with a razor thin margin in their legislature. Same for Walz in Minnesota.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Just pointing out that a lot of liberals don't actually care about minorities. Even if they don't support your candidate, saying they "deserve" mistreatment makes that clear. You aren't looking to help, just demanding subjugation.

You're the one cheerleading for this POTUS candidate.

You clearly want Trump to win, so it can send a message to Democrats. All the collateral damage to, well, everyone, appears to be worth it to you.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

You're the one cheerleading for this POTUS candidate.

You clearly want Trump to win, so it can send a message to Democrats. All the collateral damage to, well, everyone, appears to be worth it to you.

I don't want Trump to win and I will not be voting for him. Neither major candidate is interested in my vote and that's fair. Candidates can cater to the voters they want.

[albionmoonlight]

Biden and Trump now at the same likelihood (90%) of getting their nominations on PredictIt.

Rumors of him sleeping and farting his way through his first criminal trial have brought Trump's numbers down a bit.