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Old 08-10-2011, 09:32 AM   #501
Lathum
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Join Date: Dec 2001
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I think we need to be careful of a Danny run away. If we think Danny was saved a Danny voter is the way to go. Other than Danny who voted in self defense, Chubby cast the second to last vote. He then immediately comes after me using extremely flawed logic by claiming I stated I was the duke, when it is pretty clear to everyone what I was saying, not to mention the fact I came right out earlier in the thread and said I was not the duke. And if I was the duke, I would be a villager. Plus there was no duke "flavor" in the write up.

He stinks of a wolf trying to set me up early and doing a very bad job of it.

Vote Chubby
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Old 08-10-2011, 09:43 AM   #502
bhlloy
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Well I came on this morning intending to vote Danny, but I see no reason to push him ahead 4-1 at this point. He still makes the most sense to me but don't want to pile on at this stage.

I'd like to get more answers from Bug as to what really happened with the mistletoe and why he left his throwaway vote around on D1, as well as just getting him to be more active to begin with. That seems as good a place to go as any right now

Vote MrBug
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Old 08-10-2011, 09:44 AM   #503
Barkeep49
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I think Chubby is a great alternative to Danny, btw. Both because he was a potential lynch target himself and because he was an EF voter. If the wolves knew Danny was going to be alive and Danny is innocent it means that they knew they had vote boosting on EF.
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Old 08-10-2011, 09:49 AM   #504
Autumn
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I find it hard to imagine Chubby is a wolf and goes after Lathum like that, particularly based on a misunderstanding of his post. If a wolf wanted to paint Lathum suspicious I think there were better posts they could have dragged out, I feel pretty comfortable that was just a villager mistake.

Similarly, I expected Mauboy would get flak for his in thread vote juggling yesterday, but I feel that's just Mauboy's MO. Like me he tends to think out loud in the thread, and I feel we've seen him do just that style of voting in the past. I don't think either of those are likely wolves.
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Old 08-10-2011, 09:51 AM   #505
Autumn
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I'm not sure what Mr. Bug could have done with the Mistletoe that would have had him worried, except for passing it to Dubb. I guess I'm going to assume that's the case, real bad luck. At least Hoops came forth with it, though I think I might likely do the same as a wolf. The chance to kill Balder isn't likely worth a chance of getting outed later.
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Old 08-10-2011, 09:54 AM   #506
Autumn
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And to defend a third person, and thus seal my eventual doom, I don't see why Mckerney's getting so much flak for his vote. There are always people who leave their votes elsewhere, especially on day one. Yes, there's reason to consolidate votes, but there's also something to be said for leaving your vote where you thought it should be. It's not at all unusual so I'm a bit suspicious of people barking up that tree so strongly.
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Old 08-10-2011, 09:57 AM   #507
Autumn
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Quadruple dola!
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Old 08-10-2011, 09:59 AM   #508
Narcizo
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Hmmm.. I kind of agree with Autumn. Chubby seems to be playing exactly like he's played in recent games and he's been a villager in all of those. I kind of take the point about mau as well and but I'm struggling to come up with a non-Danny candidate. So now I'm doing the same thing I was saying he was doing.

unvote mauboy
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Old 08-10-2011, 10:01 AM   #509
Narcizo
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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
And to defend a third person, and thus seal my eventual doom, I don't see why Mckerney's getting so much flak for his vote. There are always people who leave their votes elsewhere, especially on day one. Yes, there's reason to consolidate votes, but there's also something to be said for leaving your vote where you thought it should be. It's not at all unusual so I'm a bit suspicious of people barking up that tree so strongly.

So much flak? Really? I was just making my standard Naughty Throw-away Voter post and then when he defended it pointed out why it wasn't the most helpful thing for the villager cause.
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Old 08-10-2011, 10:12 AM   #510
Narcizo
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Originally Posted by Barkeep49 View Post
I think Chubby is a great alternative to Danny, btw. Both because he was a potential lynch target himself and because he was an EF voter. If the wolves knew Danny was going to be alive and Danny is innocent it means that they knew they had vote boosting on EF.

It always make me jittery when people want to call who should be in a vote-off. Especially when we have so little information and are probably making some big incorrect assumptions or three.

Do we know that a vote on Eagle counted double?
Do we know that Dubb was killed to set up/help Danny?
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Old 08-10-2011, 10:17 AM   #511
Barkeep49
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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
And to defend a third person, and thus seal my eventual doom, I don't see why Mckerney's getting so much flak for his vote. There are always people who leave their votes elsewhere, especially on day one. Yes, there's reason to consolidate votes, but there's also something to be said for leaving your vote where you thought it should be. It's not at all unusual so I'm a bit suspicious of people barking up that tree so strongly.
I understand defense posts 1 & 2, even if I don't quite agree with everything you said. This one not so much. I agree that there are frequently people who have outlier votes. Just because it frequently happens doesn't mean it's OK. With FOUR candidates to choose from, I don't see how you can have enough conviction in your original vote to keep it in place on Day 1. This isn't some brave stand he was making, this was an outlier play and one which I think makes long term vote analysis more difficult, and thus is a negative net for the village.
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Old 08-10-2011, 10:23 AM   #512
Lathum
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Originally Posted by Narcizo View Post
Do we know that a vote on Eagle counted double?

Considering no villager has fessed up I think it is a safe assumption there was a wolf mechanic in play. Either something Danny possesses or a double vote.
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Old 08-10-2011, 10:24 AM   #513
Barkeep49
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Originally Posted by Narcizo View Post
It always make me jittery when people want to call who should be in a vote-off. Especially when we have so little information and are probably making some big incorrect assumptions or three.

Do we know that a vote on Eagle counted double?
Do we know that Dubb was killed to set up/help Danny?
Of those two questions I think only the second one matters. Do you see another reason for them to have killed dubb? Some secret indicator the wolves would pick up on which would make dubb seem like the seer?

Personally speaking I think the wolves knew Danny was not going to be the lynch target. With that assumption, which might be false, I think either voting for Danny or one of the voters for EF makes the most sense (I can detail out why if people don't understand). Of the voters of EF I think Chubby is the most logical candidate given that he was also a D1 target. Obviously I think it more likely that Danny is the wolf, but if some power were used on me and I was prevented from voting for Danny, Chubby seems like a good place for a vote to end up.
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Old 08-10-2011, 10:27 AM   #514
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Alright, well it looks like I have no choice now. I really wanted to divert away from this, especially at first when I figured the seer was still out tyhere, but frankl I don't see how I wouldn't be the logical vote today. I am Thor. I have a bodyguard type ability. It works a little differently than a typical one, but I'd rather not give details at this point. That said, barring mechanics I don't know about, I am not in danger tonight. I also have a one time ability to avoid a lynch. This is why I was not too worried about the vote yesterday.
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Old 08-10-2011, 10:33 AM   #515
Barkeep49
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
Considering no villager has fessed up I think it is a safe assumption there was a wolf mechanic in play. Either something Danny possesses or a double vote.
Just to be fair if voting boosting is involved, it would mean that the vote had to come up as more than +1 for EF, or else EF lost the random draw if he was brought into a tie. If the former then it's possible there was village vote boosting in play as well. To me there are just a lot factors which would have to be in play for vote boosting to be at work for why EF got chosen over Danny and thus why I'm voting for Danny today.
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Old 08-10-2011, 10:34 AM   #516
Lathum
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I'll choose to believe Danny until there is no reason to. He could easily be a wolf fake revealing, but if he is we can go down that path later in the game.
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Old 08-10-2011, 10:34 AM   #517
Barkeep49
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Damn my boss for coming in and starting a conversation as I was in the middle of typing a post such that it became irrelevant by the time I posted it.
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Old 08-10-2011, 10:35 AM   #518
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
I'll choose to believe Danny until there is no reason to. He could easily be a wolf fake revealing, but if he is we can go down that path later in the game.
Wait, really? You'd believe that the BG in addition to being the BG can avoid lynch? This seems plausible to you?
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Old 08-10-2011, 10:35 AM   #519
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Meh. Sucky first days suck.

For the benefit of Racer I live in Sweden and go to bed around 4:30 EST. So I have to decide where to leave my vote early every day.

And yeah, if there's no villager with an explanation of what happened in the vote we have to assume that it was a wolf action. Whether that action was to take out another villager and frame Danny at the same time (a la Jungle Book) or to save him remains to be seen but it doesn't look good for him.

Ah that makes sense then.

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I'm not understanding your thinking Danny. If you're a villager then it was villager-villager so why are later voters on you suspicious? I would imagine Heinz and Racer aren't aware of your rep - if anything I'd be most suspicious of ntn.

Particularly if you're a wolf.

I knew Danny had been around for awhile. I think I've played a couple of games with him but I didn't realize he had an excellent village rep. Now that I think of it I remember Autumn saying something about how the other tribe in the Survivor game thought he was the call the shots in our tribe. So I guess that would make sense then.
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Old 08-10-2011, 10:36 AM   #520
bhlloy
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Assuming that's true and I have no reason to doubt it (it makes sense) then what a horrible day 1 we had yesterday - put 2 of our big 3 up against each other and the 3rd got NK'd.
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Old 08-10-2011, 10:37 AM   #521
Barkeep49
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I'm certainly not convinced Danny is lying, but IF he is a wolf this is a very high percentage play since it might force the actual BG/Thor to reveal.

So: actual BG/Thor don't feel compelled to reveal. Vote Danny, make the case another way, and keep your identity safe.
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Old 08-10-2011, 10:38 AM   #522
bhlloy
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Wait, really? You'd believe that the BG in addition to being the BG can avoid lynch? This seems plausible to you?

For now, yes. If it's a fake reveal it will come out in the wash in a couple of days. There's better places to go than a runaway on somebody who has revealed and not been challenged on it.
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Old 08-10-2011, 10:45 AM   #523
Lathum
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Wait, really? You'd believe that the BG in addition to being the BG can avoid lynch? This seems plausible to you?

I do believe him. Danny is a smart guy and I don't think he would over power a roll in a fake reveal.
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Old 08-10-2011, 10:45 AM   #524
Lathum
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dola- last game there was a seer who could self protect, so its not like there isn't the capacity for powerful roles in these games.
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Old 08-10-2011, 10:48 AM   #525
Autumn
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Certainly could be a fake, Barkeep, I think revealing this early is a play wolf Danny might make, knowing he has a very high odds of being the lynch target, and can then argue he revealed early, must be a villager.

I don't think his reveal sounds fishy itself though. One lynch avoid for a vital village role is reasonable, especially since we don't know how his other ability works.

No reason to vote him, and I don't think any reason for a real Thor to reveal if there is one. We've got plenty of time to catch Danny at it if he's faking.

unvote danny

Oh well, it was too easy. Now back to the drawing board.
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Old 08-10-2011, 10:54 AM   #526
jeheinz72
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Yes, I have one. Is weaponized mistletoe the best phrase invented so far in this game?

QFT
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Heinz has always been, and will always be a magnificent liar.
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:00 AM   #527
jeheinz72
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For now

Vote Jeheinz

Zinto's vote came in late and he may not have wanted to tie it up, so I think I would choose between Racer and Jeheinz. I am voting for Jeheinz over Racer due to vibe.

First off, I understand your general reasoning for voting for me.

Secondly, what vibe?

Thirdly, and this is totally self-serving, what does the village learn more from? Voting me off or one of the folks, like Danny, who would tell us much more

Lastly, I'm still catching up (and shaking off rust) but up to this post I'm leaning Racer or Danny. Racer I just hunched on early yesterday and nothing has taken me off that, Danny for reasons above.
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:01 AM   #528
Autumn
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Another reason for Danny to possibly fake reveal would be to get someone to pass him the hammer. So if you have the hammer, folks, I would think twice about passing it at this time.
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:02 AM   #529
jeheinz72
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I'm not understanding your thinking Danny. If you're a villager then it was villager-villager so why are later voters on you suspicious? I would imagine Heinz and Racer aren't aware of your rep - if anything I'd be most suspicious of ntn.

Particularly if you're a wolf.

I am not privy to his "rep". I mean I played with Danny many times, long ago, and he's a good player. Is there a special reason he shouldn't be looked at D1 moreso than anyone else? I think hoops or someone said it's "because he's a good villager". Well someone who is a good villager could still be a wolf *this* game, no?

Yikes, that comes off antagonistic, though it's not meant so
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:04 AM   #530
jeheinz72
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From a logical stand point, I agree with everything here. I am the smart lynch choice, but if I am lynched, I would look hard at my voters on day 1. I think there is a good chance of being two wolves on me.

Why would *two* wolves vote for you, in a situation where you're leading by one over a now known villager? That doesn't vibe. If you and EF are villager-villager, I'd think the wolves would want to have as little hand in whichever of you got lynched as possible.

I can see one wolf, just on odds/norms alone, but two seems unlikely IMO
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:06 AM   #531
Autumn
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I am not privy to his "rep". I mean I played with Danny many times, long ago, and he's a good player. Is there a special reason he shouldn't be looked at D1 moreso than anyone else? I think hoops or someone said it's "because he's a good villager". Well someone who is a good villager could still be a wolf *this* game, no?

Yikes, that comes off antagonistic, though it's not meant so

Well, a day one lynch is typically very random. So I'd say that many of us shy away from voting out people we think make very strong villagers if all we have is a random guess. It's more likely to hurt the village than catch a wolf, is the thinking.
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:07 AM   #532
jeheinz72
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Alright, well it looks like I have no choice now. I really wanted to divert away from this, especially at first when I figured the seer was still out tyhere, but frankl I don't see how I wouldn't be the logical vote today. I am Thor. I have a bodyguard type ability. It works a little differently than a typical one, but I'd rather not give details at this point. That said, barring mechanics I don't know about, I am not in danger tonight. I also have a one time ability to avoid a lynch. This is why I was not too worried about the vote yesterday.


...and now I look like a jackass.
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:08 AM   #533
Autumn
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I think it's pretty likely there's a wolf on Chubby as well, that's a safe spot to hide, no worry about lynching a villager, but enough votes on him that it's not a throwaway. I feel better about Lathum and Mauboy than the other two, and have heard least from Darth, who tends to just disappear unless prodded.

Prod.

vote darth vilus
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:11 AM   #534
jeheinz72
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Well, a day one lynch is typically very random. So I'd say that many of us shy away from voting out people we think make very strong villagers if all we have is a random guess. It's more likely to hurt the village than catch a wolf, is the thinking.

I think the only catch with that is, there aren't many folks who are good villagers but bad wolves. AKA, it's giving a good player an extra shield. (and I'm believing Danny's reveal so this is moreso just to re-comment)
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:14 AM   #535
jeheinz72
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Vote Racer

I'll be pompous enough to think my hunch D1 may have been correct. Racer put EF ahead 4-3, then switched late-ish to make it a Danny/EF 5-5 tie.
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:22 AM   #536
Racer
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Vote Racer

I'll be pompous enough to think my hunch D1 may have been correct. Racer put EF ahead 4-3, then switched late-ish to make it a Danny/EF 5-5 tie.

I could be wrong, but I think when I voted for EF, there were like 2 or 3 other people also with 3 votes. There was no point in leaving my vote on Thomkol. As far as switching off of EF, it was because he was actively trying to find the logic behind people's votes on him so I switched (figuring he could be helpful later on if he was a villager).
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:26 AM   #537
Racer
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I know J23 is on our side, I don't know his role but I know he is clear if you knuckleheads duke me

Skimming through things. I was trying to decide who to put a vote on among the EF voters (since we know he's good for sure) and came across this.

Did Chubby ever explain why he knows J23 is good? I can understand if he would rather not say though I think it would be a bit early to hint at having a role in this game especially when he wasn't that much in danger at that point.
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:29 AM   #538
Autumn
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Skimming through things. I was trying to decide who to put a vote on among the EF voters (since we know he's good for sure) and came across this.

Did Chubby ever explain why he knows J23 is good? I can understand if he would rather not say though I think it would be a bit early to hint at having a role in this game especially when he wasn't that much in danger at that point.

We never got an answer, I don't think, but I believe it was just part of Chubby's theory about the votes, and that he didn't feel J23 would make that vote as a wolf? I'm not sure exactly.
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:30 AM   #539
Autumn
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I think the only catch with that is, there aren't many folks who are good villagers but bad wolves. AKA, it's giving a good player an extra shield. (and I'm believing Danny's reveal so this is moreso just to re-comment)

That's definitely the case. But I've been in enough games where we were left at the end with a bunch of boneheads like me trying to figure it out, so I'm willing to give a wolf Danny or wolf JAG a few extra days in order to have the use of a villager Danny or villager JAG's analysis.
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:34 AM   #540
Barkeep49
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I think the only catch with that is, there aren't many folks who are good villagers but bad wolves. AKA, it's giving a good player an extra shield. (and I'm believing Danny's reveal so this is moreso just to re-comment)
I disagree pretty strongly with this. I think it's actually MORE rare to find someone equally adept at both wolf and vanilla villager play.

Last edited by Barkeep49 : 08-10-2011 at 11:35 AM.
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:35 AM   #541
Danny
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Skimming through things. I was trying to decide who to put a vote on among the EF voters (since we know he's good for sure) and came across this.

Did Chubby ever explain why he knows J23 is good? I can understand if he would rather not say though I think it would be a bit early to hint at having a role in this game especially when he wasn't that much in danger at that point.

Honestly, I am not sure what to make of anything Chubby says.
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:37 AM   #542
mckerney
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Personally speaking I think the wolves knew Danny was not going to be the lynch target.

How do you think they'd know this? Even if they'd had either a double vote or the ability to make someones vote not count to tie it there still would have been a chance Danny was the random choice in a tie.

Last edited by mckerney : 08-10-2011 at 11:37 AM.
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:38 AM   #543
mckerney
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Honestly, I am not sure what to make of anything Chubby says.

Agreed there, how he came to Lathum being duke and J23 being trust worthy yesterday is baffling to me.

Last edited by mckerney : 08-10-2011 at 01:05 PM.
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:41 AM   #544
Narcizo
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I think the only catch with that is, there aren't many folks who are good villagers but bad wolves. AKA, it's giving a good player an extra shield. (and I'm believing Danny's reveal so this is moreso just to re-comment)

Danny, Hoops and Autumn gets lots of night kills - to me it's only fair that they don't get lynched as much. (Irony eh Autumn). You're doing the wolves work for them by lynching them.

In this case though I think Danny is a big fat liar. He was all "Good luck village!" and stuff last night. Sure he could be trying to cover himself so the wolves would be less suspicious of him but it seems like it's standard wolf who knows they're not going to get killed actions and then he's seen the way the land lies today and is trying to get as much as possible out of it all by flushing out Thor or getting his hands on the hammer.
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:41 AM   #545
Barkeep49
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How do you think they'd know this? Even if they'd had either a double vote or the ability to make someones vote not count to tie it there still would have been a chance Danny was the random choice in a tie.
I've always thought the mostly likely explanation, and Danny's reveal confirms this, that Danny, or another wolf, had the Duke power to move the lynch onto the second place candidate.
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:42 AM   #546
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I think Danny is a big fat liar. He was all "Good luck village!" and stuff last night. Sure he could be trying to cover himself so the wolves would be less suspicious of him but it seems like it's standard wolf who knows they're not going to get killed actions and then he's seen the way the land lies today and is trying to get as much as possible out of it all by flushing out Thor or getting his hands on the hammer.

This is one of the reasons I don't believe Danny's reveal.
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:43 AM   #547
mckerney
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
I'll choose to believe Danny until there is no reason to. He could easily be a wolf fake revealing, but if he is we can go down that path later in the game.

I'm of the same line of thinking. If he'd claimed a role that might not be in the game I may be a bit more hesitant to trust him, but with claiming Thor I'm going to work go with the assumption he's telling the truth until there's some evidence that he isn't.
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:45 AM   #548
Danny
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Join Date: Jul 2001
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Originally Posted by Barkeep49 View Post
This is one of the reasons I don't believe Danny's reveal.

What would be the difference between me as a villager knowing I wasn't going to get lynched or me as a wolf knowing I wasn't going to get lynched? Either way, I'd want to play it off like I didn't know that fact before it happened. Especially since at the time, the likely seer was still alive and I definitely would not have wanted to need to reveal.
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:47 AM   #549
Barkeep49
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Join Date: Jan 2001
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Originally Posted by mckerney View Post
I'm of the same line of thinking. If he'd claimed a role that might not be in the game I may be a bit more hesitant to trust him, but with claiming Thor I'm going to work go with the assumption he's telling the truth until there's some evidence that he isn't.
We'll know Danny would be lying about being Thor either because Thor is dead or because Thor counter-reveals thus setting up the real Thor to be killed (either by lynch or wolves).

I feel like everyone so easily believing Danny is causing me to argue harder than I actually believe about him being a wolf, but the ease of which Danny has people believing him is surprising to me.
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Old 08-10-2011, 11:48 AM   #550
Danny
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And with the logic that it was either an extra vote or non vote that saved me, there still would have been a 50% chance I was going to be lynched. You are arguing that I knew I wasn't to get lynched, but an extra / cancelling vote power wouldn't have made me thing that. My avoid a lynch power would.
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