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06-23-2006, 08:20 AM
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#51 | ||
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Mascot
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Canada
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That's my guess as well. Although teams like the Aussies and Ghana moved on, no one believes they can get past there next games. If the Aussies or Ukraine moves on though I can see some activity to be able to sell.
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06-25-2006, 07:37 PM
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#52 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Code:
Well, I think that this little experiment (in a sport about which I know perilously little) is most serving to educate me on these "markets." I'm not seeing anywhere near the elasticity in the markets that I'd expect...sides winning their first match are hardly budging in these odds. I wonder if Argentina might be a good buy here? I'm obviously just playing patty cake with this, but a couple of shares of one of the contenders would get me watching more closely. *shurg* Last edited by QuikSand : 06-25-2006 at 07:37 PM. |
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06-26-2006, 06:18 AM
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#53 |
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Mascot
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Canada
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I don't know...I think the Argentina/Germany match is a toss up next. I'd hate to see you make an investment in them and have them lose the next game. I think the Germans wil be very strong at home. Up to you, but I would just take the loses or go with England. I think England can win their next match against Portugal with the injuries and suspensions to the Portegese players.
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06-26-2006, 07:48 AM
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#54 | |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Quote:
My worry is mainly that I could win with England, and still not get much of anywhere. If most of the real money in the pool is concentrated with the handful of major clubs, then let's say England survives to face the Arg/Ger winner, and Brasil is still alive on the other side with whomever. Presumably England would be an underdog in their semifinal match, so their price might rise from its current 11/13 to... what, 16/18 or 18/20? I'm just worried that I might be buying in at $13 to get a chance to sell at only $15 or 16, and that doesn't seem to be worth it to me. I suspect I'll end up deciding there's no good value in this pool any longer, and just sitting it out. I do want to drop a few bucks on Ghana, though, at $1. Hard not to root for them. Last edited by QuikSand : 06-26-2006 at 07:49 AM. |
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06-26-2006, 08:07 PM
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#55 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Even with the win by the Ukraine, it looks like I'm fuct here:
Code:
I guess I can hope things move a trace in the next day or two... but not even a budge of one notch?!?!? Ouch. I can still buy shares of UKR at the same price I did before they had even advanced from their group - and now they're in the round of eight. Double ouch. |
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06-27-2006, 02:11 PM
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#56 |
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n00b
Join Date: Nov 2000
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QS,
Something I found more interesting than futures is live betting. For the Brazil - Ghana game I bet as follows on the over/under (2.5): - Before game started: Bought over @54 Bought under @50 - Brazil scored in the fifth minute, I panicked and did the wrong thing: Sold under @28 - Realized my mistake Sold over @63 Bought two contracts of under @38 - Planned on selling one under when it reached 51, negating the loss, but Brazil scores at the end of the half, sending the sell to 21. I decided to hold the contracts and see what happens... - Brazil and Ghana go scoreless for 40 minutes in the second half, the sell rises to 60... a smart man would sell here, but if I wait and there is no additional score, the sell goes all the way to 100 each... Brazil scores at the 86th minute, and I get a big dounut when I could have traded in the contracts for a total of 120 (+48). Damn the greed, but it was exciting... Last edited by ctrane_crash : 06-27-2006 at 02:12 PM. |
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06-27-2006, 02:17 PM
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#57 |
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Mascot
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Canada
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Sounds interesting, almost like day trading. I may give this a shot sometime.
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06-28-2006, 10:57 AM
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#58 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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The in-game markets sound interesting to me -- but i think I'd be more inclined to dabble in a sport I feel I understand better than WC Soccer. Maybe with NFL football.
I'm increasingly inclined to think that the implied vig (space between the buy and sell prices) here is a pretty big factor -- more so than I was originally inclined to think. It's killing me in these "outsider" bets of course, but I think it's a factor elsewhere too. |
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06-28-2006, 10:58 AM
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#59 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Code:
Ponderous. |
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06-28-2006, 11:03 AM
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#60 | |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Quote:
Incidentally, back to other flights of fancy... Code:
My investment in Cleveland has gone south, but Minnesota has jumped up a bit with their recent hot streak. I still think Minnesota has a shot to get good pitching down the stretch this season, and put themselves in a nice position. Time to sell at $2? Not yet... I'll try to ride it a bit longer than this. Heck, I still think they'd be worth buying at $3. |
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06-30-2006, 12:24 PM
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#61 |
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n00b
Join Date: Nov 2000
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Germany - Brazil
I decided not to be greedy today, and I would force myself to sell if I had a decent profit. - Bought the under @61. - Scoreless 1st half raised the sell to 86. I felt that both teams would try to score early in the 2nd half, so I sold @86 (+25). I consider buying the over @14, but don't want to flush 2/3's of my profit down the toilet, so I don't buy. - Argentina scores 5 minutes into the half! I really should have bought the over @14! Under drops, so I buy it @76. - At the 71 minute mark, Argentina's starting goalie is injured and has to come out. That doesn't look good, so I decide to punch out when the sell gets to 91. Sell at the 79 minute mark @91 (+15). Consider the over @9, but once again, I don't want to minimize my profit. - 1 minute later, Germany scores! That was pure luck. I really should have bought the over @9! - I jump in and buy the under which dropped to 67. The under quickly rises as the end of the game approaches. I decide to sell at a small profit, @79 (+12). - As it turns out, neither team scored, so if I had stayed in, I would have earned an extra 21 (but that's the kind of greedy thinking that lost me 185 the other day. If they had scored, I could have lost the 67, for an overall loss for the match). So I leave this game with a +52, looking forward to the Italy - Ukraine match. I may bet on penalty kicks, if it goes to that, but probably not. |
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07-04-2006, 03:38 AM
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#62 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Nicew to see the ticket on the Twins actually rising... I'm a little tempted to just sell at $5, but for now, I'll stick with them...
Code:
Cleveland seems to be in "give up" mode now, so that looks like a goner. |
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07-05-2006, 08:29 PM
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#63 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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A new subject that gets my attention - even though we're way too far out to make any of these look very attractive:
Code:
I saw INVASOR look very, very good last week - so he's one I'll be watching. And BANDINI might be decent value at that price as well. |
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07-06-2006, 11:24 AM
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#64 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Troy, NY
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Just letting you know that I enjoy reading your musings in this thread...
__________________
Quis custodiets ipsos custodes? |
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07-06-2006, 07:48 PM
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#65 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Heh, thanks. I seem to be doing more musing than betting... but given the results thus far, that's probably for the best.
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07-07-2006, 11:22 AM
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#66 | |
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High School Varsity
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Quote:
You might want to rethink selling the twins. I think they might have peaked as far as their value goes. Here are the latest playoff odds from baseballprospectus: Code:
Not only do they think the twins are playing a bit over their heads but catching either the tigers or white sox appears to be a long shot. And that is just getting into the playoffs. BP really likes the rangers giving them a 52% shot at that division right now. With them buying at the same price the twins are selling for maybe their is some value there. Anyway, I have been pretty terrible with my predictions so far so I figured I would just post the entire AL odds. |
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07-07-2006, 11:55 AM
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#67 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Interesting - I might have a look to see what BP is using to genrate these percentages. I'm especialy interested in Texas there.
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07-07-2006, 11:56 AM
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#68 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Today's market update:
Code:
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07-07-2006, 01:55 PM
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#69 | |
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High School Varsity
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Quote:
BP runs a Monte Carlo forecaster using the remaining schedule, home field advantage, and each team's third order winning percentage and plays out the remaining season 1 million times and averages the result. The 3rd order winning % is found using the team offense and pitching/defense numbers normalized to the strength of schedule thus far (AEQR and AEQRA). It certainly seems like the best forecaster out there but it has two issues that it doesn't deal with well. First is it doesn't match up starting pitching for each game it just finds the winning percentages, who is home, and rolls the dice. Obvoiusly, this is less important at this point of the season but as we get closer to the end this will play a roll. The second issue is it doesn't deal with midseason pickups or players coming back from injury well. A team's 3rd order winning % is based off how they have done so far in games. Teams like Houston who just got Clemens back are being underated with this method. BP has tried to adjust for this by leveraging PECOTA but they don't really explain how this is done and the PECOTA numbers it uses is from the before the season starts. If a player is outperforming his 90% PECOTA numbers it is probably likely that he will outperform his 50% PECOTA numbers for the rest of the season. What PECOTA level should they use then? I really don't know, but I suspect they don't really know either. You can check out their webpage for a slightly more detailed explaination. Getting back to the Rangers. BP suggests that they are underperforming by about 6 wins so far this season. The A's, on the other hand, are overperforming by 3 wins so far. Again this isn't really counting how someone like Rich Harden may affect the outcome but as it stands now, it appears the Rangers are being undervalued. As we saw from the World Cup though the markets seem pretty stable so I have no idea how much value their really is and when you should be looking to sell high if the market does move like it did with the Twins. BTW, this is a very simple forecaster that has been tested the same way that climate models have been tested that predict more Global Warming in the future. If you don't believe in that stuff then you really shouldn't believe in this stuff as BP's forecaster has only been around for a few years and only use a few variables to make their predictions. |
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07-24-2006, 09:25 PM
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#70 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Well, an AL update:
Code:
Minnesota can sell at $6 now, which is starting to look tempting to me. Buying Texas at $4 doesn't seem bad, either... I did a little digging on them myself following dixie's comments earlier, and it does look as though they are underperforming a bit. Hmmmmmm. Not sure if I make a move right now, but I think I plan to fairly soon. |
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07-27-2006, 11:55 AM
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#71 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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I am thinking that today might be my sell day for my shares of Minnesota...
Code:
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07-27-2006, 11:59 AM
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#72 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Quick update: I am out at $9 per share for $90.
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08-02-2006, 02:48 PM
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#73 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Might have sold at a good time for the Twinkies:
Code:
They have ticked down one notch in the last few days, after a fairl steady ascent to 9/12. Meanwhile, Texas just gets cheaper and cheaper. Buying at $2 means that have to bump up at least three notches to become profitable... from 0/2 to 1/3, 2/4, and then to 3/5. Then we get into the clear, if things go well from there. I'm still not sold - I think they are the most tempting team in this mix, but the lower odds teams don't move that easily, it seems. |
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08-10-2006, 02:12 PM
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#74 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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But you never know...
Code:
Anyone still want in on that $3 buy price for Texas? Ugh. This drift between the lower odds numbers reallu makes them tough to win *a little* in... either you really hit (like with MIN) or you likely end up just sitting right around the same slot (like most of my WC bets) without being able to get out for a profit. |
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09-02-2006, 12:02 PM
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#75 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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On to new things...
Code:
Right now, I am trying to decide what happens to the price for the winner of the Miami/FSU game. I like the price on FSU right now, but if their price only rises a couple dollars after beating Miami, then I don't think the value lies in getting on board right now, but rather after that game. I'm stuck. |
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09-02-2006, 12:34 PM
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#76 | |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Quote:
This scenario strikes me as being similar to the world cup betting earlier in the year. The loser of the FSU/Miami game will drop like a rock, but I would not be suprised to see the winner remain unchanged, while the extra equity that disappears from the loser of the game transfers up into Notre Dame/OSU/WVU and possibly USC. |
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09-07-2006, 02:24 PM
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#77 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Thanks for posting this. I really like the idea of an exchange. I've always been discouraged by the poor odds on a team winning a Super Bowl, etc.
I went ahead and set up an account as well. What I think is interesting is that you can sell shares short as well. It ties up the value of the win position ($100 per contract) until you buy an equivalent contract to compensate for it, but if you've got some cash that you aren't planning to use for a bit, there may be some interesting bets along these lines. Especially if you can find something that will likely see a big shift in a couple of weeks or so. Last edited by Godzilla Blitz : 09-07-2006 at 02:24 PM. |
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10-10-2006, 09:59 PM
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#78 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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I have been watching this market for a while, and this week was a big shakeup:
Code:
I'm already invested, but I'll wait a bit before revealing my play here. |
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10-10-2006, 10:47 PM
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#79 |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago, Ill
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I think my choice is well known
__________________
Our Deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us. We ask ourselves, 'Who am I to be brilliant, gorgeous, talented, fabulous?' Actually, who are you not to be? |
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10-11-2006, 01:04 PM
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#80 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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BET: 10 shares of Garrett Wolf to win the Heisman Trophy @$6 = $60
I don't think he has much of a shot to win, but I'm thining hie might easily drift up, especially as the lustre falls off some of the top names a bit. This was the first week Wolf was even listed -- as of last week, the prices for both Troy Smith and Adrian Peterson were over 30, so both of them plummeted seriously after last weekend. I watched Oklahoma lose (and Peterson fail to really shine) and kept seeing scxore updates from Ohio State where the headline pwerformance was RB Pittman with 36 yards and 2 TDs... neither exactly claimed the lead there. I had been watching Peterson, even as his price rose into the 30s, as I'm basically convinced it's his to lose. But a few more big games from Irish boy muddles the situation a bit. The Heisman and its voting system makes this a bit more complex than who is actually best, but rather who makes the right impressions at the right times, and in the right regions. In any event... I'll hope that we continue to have noboy all that coimpelling in the race, where a novelty guy like Wolf might get some attention. If he makes the list of finalists, he probably has to have a sell price of at least 10, right? |
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10-12-2006, 08:51 AM
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#81 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Updated for today:
Code:
Movement in the wrong direction, I fear. |
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10-12-2006, 03:33 PM
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#82 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Burke, VA
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Wow - can you sell short on Quinn?
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10-12-2006, 03:46 PM
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#83 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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I don't have enough in my WSEX account to be able to do so effectively - it sets aside the full payoff for each share you short.
A friend, who is also watching this, suggested that Chris Leak might get a nice spiks if Florida beats Auburn this week. I'm reluctant to get into the lower tier entries too much, as my WC experience shows, you need a pretty big run to make that competitive. He'd have to make several notch jumps just to get past the $3 buy price. Hmmmm... |
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10-12-2006, 03:50 PM
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#84 |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago, Ill
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Might as well see what happens after Wolfe and NIU play Iowa on October 26th. If he has a good game on national television against a Big Ten team, and still has the outstanding numbers he has, he could receive a considerable bump.
__________________
Our Deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us. We ask ourselves, 'Who am I to be brilliant, gorgeous, talented, fabulous?' Actually, who are you not to be? |
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10-12-2006, 10:18 PM
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#85 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Code:
Crazy week for this market, it seems. What is going on with Troy Smith? He's making everyone else turn into a good value. Can he really win this thing easily on "field general" lore? |
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10-12-2006, 11:39 PM
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#86 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Hometown of Canada
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I started doing this as well. No idea what I'm doing, but I bought 3 contracts of the San Jose Sharks @ $7/contract... now to see what happens from here.
I'll probably try the live betting on Sunday during an NFL game. |
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10-15-2006, 07:08 AM
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#87 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Code:
After a serious blow to AP yesterday, and a lousy day for Wolfe, I expected more movement in these ratings. Maybe it takes a day or two to move... sell short on AP? Dump my shares of Wolfe? Buy Troy Smith? I don't know how to take advantage of this market. If I had unlimited funds, I think I would indeed short Peterson today... that seems like a no-brainer. |
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10-19-2006, 08:30 AM
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#88 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Big moves in the market this week... sorry I didn't get in on the obvious stuff:
Code:
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11-02-2006, 03:50 PM
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#89 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Another market that I find interesting:
Code:
In general, I think people tend to make poor judgments in this sort of setup. I haven't looked too closely, but I'm guessing that the earlier games will tend to be underlays... though the price on the Giants doesn't look too low to me. |
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11-05-2006, 08:23 AM
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#90 | |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Quote:
Dang. Though, admittedly, INVASOR went off at 8-1 on race day... so the future bet wasn't such a deal. |
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11-05-2006, 01:01 PM
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#91 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Las Vegas
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Buy Colt Brennan in Heisman shares, its gotta be cheap.
__________________
Xbox Live Gamertag: k0ruptr My Favorite Teams : Chicago White Sox - Carolina Panthers - Orlando Magic - Phoenix Suns - Anaheim Ducks - Hawaii Warriors - Oregon Ducks |
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11-05-2006, 01:10 PM
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#92 | |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Troy, NY
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Quote:
That's not a good play for a market like this. This market doesn't reward players moving from "out of contention" to "maybe will get 3rd or 4th place". You only get rewarded for someon who moves from that 3rd-4th place range into the 1st-2nd place range (i.e. Troy Smith at beginning of the season to where he is now).
__________________
Quis custodiets ipsos custodes? |
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11-05-2006, 05:02 PM
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#93 | |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Burke, VA
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Quote:
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12-21-2006, 07:08 PM
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#94 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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So, I can't help but fiddle with this stuff, and I found another place to dabble.
Code:
I have been hearing insanely good buzz about Jennifer Hudson, and I believe she has a real shot to at least win the Golden Globe, and to be nominated for Best Actress (though I hear Supporting is a possibility). In any event -- I'm in cheap, and will be hoping that the buzz is significant enough. Honestly - with the GG's split system, she is away from the heavu hitters in this area, and has a real shot to win and gather some real momentum... if I can sell at something like $15-20, that' s a big gain for me. Out of curiosity: Code:
Code:
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12-21-2006, 07:11 PM
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#95 | |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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In the interests of covering my bases...
Quote:
I like CIRCULAR QUAY a lot, but I didn't see the race that propelled the top choice to this height. Anyway, this is a loser's market by far, unless there's someone way down the field you like, and betting in December isn't a smart play under nearly any circumstance. |
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12-22-2006, 08:03 PM
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#96 |
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High School JV
Join Date: Nov 2005
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Interesting thread. I don't bet, so I was wondering what the +/- numbers mean, i.e. Forrest Whittaker 56 61 -156?
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12-22-2006, 08:09 PM
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#97 | |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Troy, NY
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Quote:
It means you must bet $156 in order to earn a return of $100 (so you would take $156 out of your bank account, and if it wins you would later receive $256). If it was +156, your bet of $100 would earn a return of $156. That is, take $100 out of your bank account, and if it wins, you get $256 back. -110 is a standard "neutral" bet for NFL games, for example.
__________________
Quis custodiets ipsos custodes? |
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12-29-2006, 08:07 AM
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#98 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Not a great fit with the dynasty, really, but to me Clemson looks like the prototypical bummed-to-be-here bowl team. Today they are giving 10 points to Kentucky, who is probably thrilled to be in a bowl game. The money line on Kentucky is a pretty appetizing +300. I'm in, both ways, for the 1pm tilt.
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01-15-2007, 07:31 PM
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#99 | |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Quote:
Well, good news is she won the Golden Globe. Bad news is, she was only nominated for the Supporting Actress award. I still have some hope that she gets a little bounce off that, but Helen Mirren is selling at something like 89, so it looks like there isn't mcuh room for anyone else. |
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01-23-2007, 08:04 AM
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#100 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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And that one is over, Hudson is a nominee for best Supporting Actress, and I'm officially zeroed out.
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