Building the Bills - an FOF "action points" challenge dynasty

[QuikSand]

2021

Okay then, we got that taken care of, though not exactly in the fashion that I might have imagined. The QB situation has a chance to be fascinating here. We have Brady earning $50m more in bonus on his current contract, plus $20m a year salary starting this season, and as I click “End Season” he shows as Out-14. And we have hero Dustin Allen innocently signed to a 1-yr deal despite being in year 4, meaning he'll be a wide open free agent in 2021. Intrigue. I halfway wonder if a Brady retirement is the best out here, as I think that means I'd only eat one year of the bonus. Academic, anyway.

We start 2021, and have 4 retirements – S Byrd, DE Hughes, and G Wood were the three remaining links to the “real” Bills, and they go out together with their rings. We also lose DT Soliai, our chemistry leader along the D7. Byrd is the biggest loss, but he wasn't re-upping anyhow, so we really lost him last season anyway.

We have 28 players currently signed, $71m in cap space (about 35%), and draft picks at 1.18 and 2.16 before our usual batch begins at 2.32. As evidenced last season, this AP system basically allows a total of 9 players to be signed AP-free, plus I have 6 more picks in rounds 6 and 7 of the draft – so in essence, we have command of 43 player already, which isn't a bad base to work from. The AP plan will be similar to last year's with continued evolution of the high salaries:

2 – Hire HC at request, hire other staff during last stage
0 – Use no rookie interviews
10 – Use allocation of draft picks
10 – Implement custom gameplans at start of season
0 – Implement staff-controlled depth chart for full season
0 – Set injury rate at 200
9 – Leave 10% of cap unused as of start of season
3 – 10% cap player: QB Brady
4 – 5% cap players: T Bernstein, DE McKinney
- - -
38 AP

From a budget of 50, that leaves precious little to play around with to secure the remaining 10 players to get us to a standard complement of 53. In all likelihood we will need to economize within the draft – we can't afford to spend AP to draft mediocre bums in the middle rounds. (And yes, I acknowledge that is one of the weaknesses of this AP system as I am finding it now trying to play all out) I do think that I'm going to need a really string situation to invest 2 AP (the flat contract of my own making) into signing anyone – we'll likely just do a lot of “put in his demands and hope for the best” deals.

Another interesting decision is upon us quickly with WR Cassidy. The plan for last year was to just get that one last year from him. We did. He posted a decent 1,000 yard season, and then exploded in the playoffs to help lead us to the title – he was probably our aggregate postseason MVP with 382 yards and 6 TD in 3 playoff games. Now, he's a tough call – tagging him again costs us 3 AP to do, plus another 2 AP to pay his 5% salary. That would likely force a couple of moves like cap-outs just to make the AP budget work. I think we have to let him walk, like it or not. Once we fail to tag him, he's gone – he will not listen to an offer from us, of course. 10,000+ yards and 52 TD, and it's over.

0 – Send former 6th or 7th round pick to European league (TE Terry)

I check out QB Brady's reneg demands-- they don't make any sense for us, despite him missing time last year. He want another $27m in bonus for a 5yr deal, and would get his salary back up to $10m plus next year. A capout is possible, but a deal anything like this is not. So much for that idea.

0 – Sign RFA player to his requested one year contract (S McCombs, CB Tirado, WR Poling)
2 – Sign RFA player on an unrestricted new contract (WR LaChappelle – 3/3.24)

We look into the open FA market, and actually have some money to spend. T Tracy Turnbull won't be all that expensive after all – I'll rely on loyalty to keep him with just his requested offer.

1 – Offer FA player his requested contract (re-sign T Turnbull, 3/10.6)
1 – Offer FA player his requested contract (re-sign G Huffman, 3/9.6)
1 – Offer FA player his requested contract (re-sign DE Schwartzhaupt, 2/5.4)
0 – Offer FA player 8th year+ requested contract 1yr no bonus (re-sign LB Preston, CB Harper, QB Brohm)

So, no immediate offer for QB Allen, I don't think he will get his asking price of 5m/yr. We will reassess later. LB Boles is another guy I'd like to have return – will also wait him out, as the plan is to have Ozga start this season.

WR Cassidy immediately signs with Green Bay for 3/42, big money. An offer from OAK forces my hand with LB Boles, and I decide to let him walk, rather than pat 2 AP to pursue him.

1 – Offer FA player a one year, no bonus contract (re-sign QB Allen)
1 – Offer FA player a one year, no bonus contract (re-sign CB Writer)
2 – Offer FA player a three-year minsal contract (DT Hopkins)

DT Tito Hopkins is a mother lode target player for us – he resolves chemistry problems by replacing a bad leader, steps in to be our new leader with high personality and multiple affinities, and he's actually good enough to play for us, too (solid run stopper). I decide to wait him out (hoping he won't get offers) but put in my 3yr minsal offer to lock him up for the road ahead – he's a bingo for us.

Okay, we're at 41 players now, but that's deceiving. RG Goodlink is a shell after a big injury, and I need to cut (or position switch?) RB Danny Wilson to resolve a chemistry problem. Thus, we're actually even farther away from the real 53 that we want, and we remain short on DL and LB. We have spent 9 AP already, and my budget for the year was basically 12.

1 – Offer FA player a one year, no bonus contract (re-sign DT Aufedenkampe)

One last guy – longtime cohesion plus, decent enough to play, and an affinity with the new D7 leader. I will carry over 2 AP, plus whatever we can save by scrimping in the draft, into late free agency. But we're done here for now.

[QuikSand]

Quik note, I'm pretty bored with this now. I have planed up to training camp, and am sitting there needing to sign a couple more guys or something, and last night basically just shut down rather than fuck around with it.

Just a FYI. I can very rarely remain very interested in my FOF careers. Have made a legit effort here, but I always find sustaining less interesting than building.

[QuikSand]

2021 Draft and Training Camp

We have more immediate needs than I'm used to – picking in mid-first, I think we may look at a DB or an OL. But if I'm bowled over by a WR or something, so be it. I need some usable depth at DL and LB along the way here, as well, plus a kicker.

Pick Pos Name                   Adj DSSABP Dev Notes                             AP PreTC
1.18 DT  Omar Wilcox            6.8 !+++-  46% 4.93 dash says PR, Aff, need pos   3 39/65
2.16 LG  Trevor Leon            5.0 ! ++!  16% dash and Bjump big creeper here    3 21/45
2.32 FB  Fred Newman            4.5 ++ + + 24% huge receiving bars, thinking TE   2 38/72 (to 33/69 at TE)
3.32 C   Earl Washington        4.6 !+ +   22% big run block bar/comb             1 13/57 
4.32 traded to ARK for 6th & 7th round picks
5.32 QB  Lonnie Robbins         5.2 -    +  1% like the bar pattern, aff          0  8/57
6.12 CB  Nick Rogers            4.5     -+ 55% big zone guy and ST skills, aff    0 12/27
6.13 WR  Ben Hilery             4.5        49% bars say sure hands and KR, aff    0 18/46
6.17 QB  Kevin Bradley          5.2 + +  + 29% huge bars, have to be a lie, but   0 16/49
6.32 K   Rob Barlow             2.9 ++-+   50% kicker, needed one                 0 22/36
7.12 RB  Jessie Drake           4.3   -+   33% elus, PR, aff                      0 21/30
7.16 WR  Jerald Lane            4.3      + 16% 3D, PR, aff – 55 Pspec             0 14/32
7.20 DE  Omar Saycocie          3.8 +  -   25% one bar, but it's PRTech, aff      0 15/31
7.32 OLB Tom Barber             4.0 -+ +-  42% decent bar mix, need position      0 13/36

1 – Any other trade within current draft (4 for 6+7)

So, I don't go after any of the early round intriguing linebackers, as at every stage I found somewhere else to target. The FB-TE is planning ahead for next year, when our starter is out of contract and unlikley to be affordable/worth resigning. The C looks like he might be good, but is for a similar plan, in case Mister M-V-P asks for moon-and-stars money next year. We again deal for more zero-AP picks, to help fill up the roster for this year and beyond.

With the extra draft picks, we exit the draft with 55 players in the fold, including two as-yet-unsigned rookies. So it goes. I basically spent my allocation of 10 AP to get through the draft, when I include the one spent to trade down. That's fine.

I switch RB Danny Wilson to WR, primarily to clear up chemistry at FB/RB, where Roman Acuna now becomes the leader with 4 affinities. He'll be interesting next season – I suspect he is just a minsal forever guy,but I can't be certain, and another 1100 yards season (or whatever) might help him in believing he's something special.

I have 2 AP left to spend, and we have a legal roster in hand now. I don't see any real value in adding extra zero-AP guys, so my goal is to sign someone who can stick around beyond this year. That seems to mean I'm into the “offer him his request” level, for 1 AP each, trying to tie up guys for next year and save myself some AP then.

(weeks-long pause here in real life... as I write I have lost track of whatever the fuck had me hung up here, so I'm just blowing onward)

MOVING ON

Top Ten Most Likely Busts:

Name                          Team             Pos	Change
Halton, Juan                  Buffalo          SLB	-36
Hopkins, Tito                 Buffalo          LDT	-9
Hillery, Ben                  Buffalo          SE	-8
Borders, Donnie               Buffalo          RCB	-8
Robbins, Lonnie               Buffalo          QB	-6
Wiggins, Calvin               Buffalo          SS	-6
Ozga, Rodney                  Buffalo          MLB	-4
Bernstein, Drew               Buffalo          LT	-4
Bradley, Kevin                Buffalo          QB	-4
Newman, Fred                  Buffalo          TE	-4


Top Ten Most Likely Breakouts:

Name                          Team             Pos	Change
Leon, Trevor                  Buffalo          LG	8
Marchion, Steve               Buffalo          RDE	6
McKinney, Brenden             Buffalo          LDE	5
Terry, R.J.                   Buffalo          TE	3
Lane, Jerald                  Buffalo          FL	2
Drake, Jesse                  Buffalo          RB	2
Poling, Hugh                  Buffalo          SE	1
Rogers, Nick                  Buffalo          RCB	1
Brady, Van                    Buffalo          QB	1
Schwarzhaupt, Johnny          Buffalo          LDE	1

Oh, wow. LB Halton looked like he was on his way to a star-studded career. Now, he's toast, at the hands of the volatility stick of death. Ouch.

Our 2nd round G Leon looks to be the real thing – that's good. DE Marchion is still on his way, too. Actually our DE group had a great camp, for whatever reason. We expect to see LB Nathan Martin step into the starting role at SLB, but I expect we'll have a rotation in play there around Ozga, with nobody really a full-timer. We very likely have to cut Halton next season.

[QuikSand]

2021 Season

Season Preview and Goals
Roster Strength: 62 (4th behind IND 100,NE 77,NO 77 – uh, wow)
Cohesion Ratings: 91-95-85-100(93)
Affinity Index: 48
Last Year's Results: 15-1, #1 seed, champs
Predicted Results: 12-4, bye week
Keys to Success: WR play, D causing turnovers, avoiding injury collapse

Not a ton to say here, we have a great looking team though that monster roster rating in Indy is a bit frightening. Maybe they drew the lucky card to be able to pick up all the 1-yr guys out there, or something.


So, we go through preseason, and WR Spikes suffers a hammy, one of those “Q-longtime” deals. That puts us in real doubt – with Cassidu gone, I was looking much shakier at WR as it stood. Now if Spikes is out half the season, where does that leave us? With guys rated 48/48 (Beard) and 46/46 (Floyd) as our WR starters, that's where. We'll see where we can take this ship.

We are 2-0, and looking pretty good... when QB Brady goes down. I know we have a strong bench here, but this bodes poorly for the long haul. This isn't a repeat of a former injury, but it's still a troubling pattern. Dustin Allen actually comes out and loses his first game ever in his season debut (20-17 at home) and we have Indy in two weeks. Brady is listed as doubtful, so we send Allen in to Indy – and we get out with a 24-20 win to stay in the top seed hunt at 4-1.

At 7-1, we are neither cruising nor safe, with NYJ right behind us by one game, and our margins of victory pretty slight. Brady eerily only had 3 TD in 161 attempts – way low for anyone, much less a foundation paid player. However, Spikes iss returning 100% healthy now, and that could make a big difference down the stretch. We lose to Baltimore and split with the Jets, so with two games left we sit at 11-3 with a one game lead. We lock the division in week 16, and have our bye week in hand as well, as mighty Indy is still fighting over seeding at 10-5.

2021 Summary for Buffalo Bills
   
Year                2021                                      
Record              13-3                                      
Winning Pct.        .812                                      
All-Time            125-67                                    
Winning Pct.        .651                                      
Playoffs            6-5                                       
Playoff Visits      7                                         
Bowl Wins           1                                         
Head Coach          Morris Weeks                              
Record              103-36                                    
Winning Pct.        .741                                      
Off. Coord.         J. Castillo                               
Def. Coord.         B. Nazareno                               
   
Buffalo Bills           Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         29.6      6           
Rushing Yards           121.8     6           
Yards Per Carry         4.11      19          
Pass Attempts           31.7      28          
Completions             18.2      32          
Completion Pct.         57.4      27          
Passing Yards           249.3     13          
Yards Per Attempt       7.87      1           
Yards Per Catch         13.71     1           
Total Yardage Gained    359.1     5           
3rd Down Conversions    43.6      1           
Points Per Game         21.4      14          
Pass Rush Pct.          25.5      1           
Pass Defense Pct.       62.7      1 (T)       
Turnovers               34        29          
Turnover Margin         -9        27 (T)      
   
Opponents               Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         26.5      23          
Rushing Yards           117.8     24          
Yards Per Carry         4.45      23          
Pass Attempts           33.9      5           
Completions             18.4      2           
Completion Pct.         54.1      2           
Passing Yards           188.0     2           
Yards Per Attempt       5.54      1           
Yards Per Catch         10.23     11 (T)      
Total Yardage Gained    290.8     3           
3rd Down Conversions    30.5      1           
Points Per Game         15.3      2           
Pass Rush Pct.          23.1      31 (T)      
Pass Defense Pct.       65.3      30          
Turnovers               25        10 (T)      
   
Week  Team  Versus        Oppnt  
1     9     at MIA        6       
2     20    CAR           13      
3     17    SDO           20      
4     31    at TEN        14      
5     24    at IND        20      
6     20    HOU           15      
7     14    MIA           13      
9     27    JAX           22      
10    23    at NYJ        21      
11    28    NED           0       
12    23    at NOS        16      
13    24    at BAL        27      
14    20    TBY           14      
15    16    NYJ           17      
16    24    at ATL        14      
17    23    at NED        12      
   
Passing                 Pos   Att   Comp  Yards Y/Att TD    Int   Rate  
12 V. Brady             QB    414   242   3311  8.00  17    13    84.7    
10 D. Allen             QB    91    47    640   7.03  7     6     72.6    
**Team                  ---   507   291   3989  7.87  25    19    83.5    
$$Opp                   ---   543   294   3008  5.54  15    16    67.2    
   
Rushing                 Pos   Att   Yards Y/Att TD    Fum  
47 R. Tatum             RB    215   793   3.69  2     6       
39 R. Acuna             RB    189   763   4.04  5     2       
12 V. Brady             QB    47    296   6.30  3     5       
**Team                  ---   474   1949  4.11  11    24      
$$Opp                   ---   424   1885  4.45  5     25      
   
Receiving               Pos   Targ  Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop  TD  
80 T. Beard             WR    116   64    1076  16.81 9.28  7     5       
1 K. Spikes             WR    94    51    703   13.78 7.48  3     4       
87 T. Floyd             WR    83    49    620   12.65 7.47  3     9       
85 B. LaChapelle        WR    67    37    515   13.92 7.69  5     3       
84 J. Lane              WR    45    24    288   12.00 6.40  3     1       
88 B. Turner            TE    29    22    401   18.23 13.83 1     2       
   
Defense                 Pos   Tack  Asst  Sack  Hurr  Ints  Defn  PDPct  
41 C. Wiggins           S     67    23    0.0   0     1     11    82.9    
59 F. Preston           OLB   66    20    0.0   1     1     5     76.2    
93 B. McKinney          DE    58    20    15.5  34    0     1     82.6    
5 R. Ozga               ILB   56    15    2.0   3     0     2     80.4    
22 R. Francis           CB    54    9     0.0   0     2     14    79.5    
94 S. Marchion          DE    52    21    11.5  32    0     0     82.0    
20 B. McCombs           S     49    17    0.0   0     0     1     73.0    
34 C. Writer            CB    48    12    0.0   0     3     5     78.8    
29 D. Kirk              S     38    18    0.0   0     4     10    85.0    
48 D. Borders           CB    32    12    0.0   0     1     3     78.8    
33 K. Bixler            CB    31    9     0.0   0     1     7     81.2    
79 T. Hopkins           DT    27    12    1.5   5     0     0     82.1    
38 R. Harper            CB    26    8     0.0   0     2     3     82.9    
99 O. Wilcox            DT    25    12    0.5   8     0     0     82.5    
53 N. Martin            OLB   22    6     0.0   0     1     1     74.1    
51 T. Barber            OLB   20    6     1.0   0     0     0     63.9    
35 J. Halton            OLB   19    9     0.5   0     0     2     75.1    

So, overall, WR Beard put together a solid season and looks like he may pair up pretty well with Spikes long term (Beard is basically a wingman type, so Spikes can easily be back to 100/game+ in time, if that duo remains our top line. Running game is crap, check. Brady was weak overall, that's disturbing. Brady's reneg request is officially lower than his actual salary, so there's some chance of a revisiting there... but adding guarantees may not be the ideal direction to take, even.

On defense, Old Man Preston rises up at LB to play another solid season, that's a good cheap re-signing right there. DE McKinney and Marchion are becoming quite the tag team, while DT Wilcox is on his way to adding to that mix himself. S Wiggin steps into the big-tackle slot at SS post-Byrd and while he isn't the prototype (like Byrd was) he seems to be fine for us.


Divisional Playoff: Baltimore (11-6) at Buffalo (13-3) – We look solid on paper, but we lost to this team in the regular season, and that makes us worried a bit. Joe Flacco is on his game and get the MVP of the game, but we pull out the win on a late TD to prevail 28-24. Nothing easy about it.

Conference Championship: Oakland (13-4 at Buffalo (14-3) - Oakland looks like the better team in the “tale of the tape” matchup analysis, we ar 2 point favorites mostly for being at home and for having big-bars-Brady at QB. This one isn't easy, either, ass OAK owns the first half, but only gets 3 FG on their deep drives, and actually trails 10-9 at the half. Two Tds to Spikes in the second half give us our edge for a 26-15 win. Red zone defense getting' it done. And we're in again.

Superbowl: Buffalo (15-3) vs. Minnesota (12-7) – In the real NFL world, this would be the “Something's Gotta Give” Bowl. We limp in with DE Marchion, CB Francis, RB Acuna, and a number of other solid players out to injuries. Probably up to our QB/WR battery to win this one, not that this is a shock. So, as I say that, we get an opening TD behind three straight big runs from RB Ricky Tatum, to take an early 7-0 lead. We score lare in the 2nd to go up 17-7, but the Vikes return the kick for a TD to stay close. Two FG bookending the halftime make our lead 9 points – we seem in control, but can't put this away yet, and an 18-yd FG doesn't help on that front. After some back and forth a while, we're down to 4 minutes left, still 23-14, and MIN at midfield. MIN gets a long TD pass called back, and then falls into the 4th-and-long bad scene, where they ought to kick but go for it because they are run by an idiotic computer chip, just sad. We run out some clock, take our knee, and check in for another champagne bath.


Van Brady is the MVP of the big game, nice. Our DE duo are both named first team all-pros, with McKinney landing his second DPOY award. LT Bernstein is second team all pro, not easy on a team that can't run for shit.

Well done, once again.