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08-10-2011, 09:09 PM
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#901 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Jan 2011
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Good stuff even if we lost another rolled villager.
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08-10-2011, 09:10 PM
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#902 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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Chubby,
Still have that strong feeling about Lathum? |
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08-10-2011, 09:10 PM
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#903 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
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Quote:
i don't know, Fennir and Tyr's history was linked so perhaps Fennir would always take out Tyr if lynched. This also makes it less probably in my mind that Danny duked yesterday, that would make multiple powers for him? still possible for far less likely IMO |
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08-10-2011, 09:11 PM
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#904 |
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General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Hopefully we've got the start of a trust list after today.
Trust: Chubby, J23 Some Trust: MrBug (no one else claimed to pass mistletoe) Smidge of Trust: those who voted for Danny D1, since he was eager to have us look at that list today. I doubt he had 2 wolves on him of the 5 alive at the start of the day. There are probably others worth trusting as well based on voting records and in-thread posts, but I'll leave that analysis to someone else. |
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08-10-2011, 09:11 PM
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#905 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
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Quote:
Yes, I'm not convinced he had it. He still ranks ahead of ntn on my list of suspects. What do you expect him to say, of course he was going to pass it to Danny  |
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08-10-2011, 09:12 PM
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#906 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
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now comes the interesting part (nk)
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08-10-2011, 09:12 PM
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#907 | |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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Quote:
Jeez, what do I have to do to make the trust list?  |
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08-10-2011, 09:13 PM
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#908 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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Not saying what but I did pass something to Chubby on night one as well.
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08-10-2011, 09:13 PM
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#909 | |
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
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Quote:
Ditto. |
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08-10-2011, 09:14 PM
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#910 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
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Quote:
heh +1 |
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08-10-2011, 09:15 PM
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#911 |
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Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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I hope I'm night killed, I really do
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08-10-2011, 09:16 PM
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#912 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: St. Paul, MN
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As the Fenrir Wolf takes its last gasp, you hear the distant sound of combat. Remembering how you found Odin yesterday, you rush out to investigate. While you did believe you heard something, it does not appear that anyone is missing or any worse for wear. You shrug and resume your search for Loki and his agents.
Day 3 now begins, please check PM's. |
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08-10-2011, 09:17 PM
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#913 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
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even better news
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08-10-2011, 09:17 PM
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#914 |
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Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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well, if I wasn't offed this is as good a result as any I suppose.
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08-10-2011, 09:17 PM
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#915 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Whittier
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Ha!
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08-10-2011, 09:17 PM
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#916 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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Today was a good day.
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08-10-2011, 09:18 PM
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#917 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA
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whew! thank the norse gods i picked correctly. Wasn't going that way till late in the day when others came to Chubby's defense and with Lathum the person I trust the least in the game right now voting for Chubby as well.
Very sorry to lose you though Bhlloy |
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08-10-2011, 09:21 PM
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#918 | |
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General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
Oops |
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08-10-2011, 09:22 PM
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#919 |
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General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Well, time to see if we learn about a block or need to start fretting about conversions ...
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08-10-2011, 09:23 PM
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#920 | |
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Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
Just want to point out that at 7-6 I was the first person to switch to Danny making it 8-5. I would look at the tale pile on ers on Danny |
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08-10-2011, 09:23 PM
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#921 |
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General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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By the way, I've got another item. If someone wants to suggest they passed it to me that wouldn't earn quite as much trust as passing mistletoe, but it would likely still get a least a small check to the "good" side of the ledger.
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08-10-2011, 09:25 PM
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#922 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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Very good day, indeed! Let's hope we can have a repeat day in lynching a wolf and get what I assume was a BG move tonight.
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08-10-2011, 09:26 PM
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#923 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
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i'm exhausted so i'm off to bed, will post some thoughts in the AM before heading to work.
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08-10-2011, 10:27 PM
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#924 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Very nice. Clearly the wolves piled on along with the villagers eventually, but I think earlier in the day we can learn something. Sorry Lathum, I don't put a lot of stock in your switch, as it came after I was pressuring people to deepen the divide. Certainly a spot where a wolf might decide to gain trust. Glad I at least was wrong about bhlloy, I would have been looking suspiciously at him today.
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08-10-2011, 10:42 PM
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#925 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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At least I can be glad about being wrong on that one.
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08-10-2011, 11:16 PM
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#926 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
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nicely done, all of you doubting Danny. Let's hope we get another one today.
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08-10-2011, 11:21 PM
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#927 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
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and btw, If Chubby passed something to me, it did not reach me as of yet.
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08-10-2011, 11:52 PM
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#928 |
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: SoCal
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Hell yeah! Couldnt be better! Well obviously losing bllhoy sucked but otherwise an awesome day! Good job everyone!
__________________
"Two there should be; no more, no less. One to embody power, the other to crave it." ―Darth Bane "Tell me what you regard as your greatest strength, so I will know how best to undermine you; tell me of your greatest fear, so I will know which I must force you to face; tell me what you cherish most, so I will know what to take from you; and tell me what you crave, so that I might deny you…" ―Darth Plagueis the Wise |
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08-11-2011, 02:39 AM
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#929 | |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Quote:
Yeah I sent something to you. I figured most people would be trying to send stuff to Eagle and this was before the whole J23/Chubby trust bandwagon got up a head of steam. Kind of trusted you because you came out about the mistletoe. |
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08-11-2011, 02:43 AM
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#930 |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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DAY ONE
#67 22:03 Lathum votes Heinz (1) #72 22:47 EagleFan votes Autumn (0) #75 23:27 Barkeep votes EagleFan (1) #80 00:30 Ntndeacon votes Danny (1) #90 02:30 Narcizo votes Lathum (1) #94 04:06 mckerney votes ntndeacon (1) #97 07:03 Hoops votes EagleFan (2) #106 09:36 Autumn votes chubby (1) #117 10:11 Bhlloy votes chubby (2) #126 10:52 Lathum unvotes Heinz (0) #126 10:52 Lathum votes Danny (2) #134 11:25 MrBug votes Zinto (1) #147 11:47 Racer voes Thomkal (1) #150 12:47 Heinz votes Racer (1) #165 13:32 EagleFan unvotes Autumn (-1) #165 13:32 EageFan votes Chubby (3) #171 13:55 Zinto votes Lathum (2) #174 14:20 Autumn unvotes Chubby (2) #174 14:20 Autumn votes EagleFan (3) #178 15:03 Telle votes Autumn (0) #195 16:02 Chubby votes Lathum (3) #204 16:53 Lathum unvotes Danny (1) #204 16:53 Lathum votes Chubby (3) #205 16:53 Telle unvotes Autumn (-1) #205 16:53 Telle votes Danny (2) #217 17:11 Heinz unvotes Racer (0) #217 17:11 Heinz votes Danny (3) #222 17:38 Racer unvotes Thomkal (0) #222 17:38 Racer votes EagleFan (4) #224 17:40 Thomkal votes Lathum (4) #236 18:18 Darth Vilus votes Chubby (4) #238 18:21 Dubb93 votes Danny (4) #270 19:42 mau votes Danny (5) #271 19:45 mau unvotes Danny (4) #273 19:45 mau votes Chubby (5) #276 19:46 J23 votes EagleFan (5) #294 21:02 EagleFan unvotes Chubby (4) #297 21:07 EagleFan votes Autumn (0) #300 21:13 Lathum unvotes Chubby (3) #300 21:13 Lathum votes EagleFan (6) #307 21:25 Racer unvotes EagleFan (5) #307 21:25 Racer votes Danny (5) #308 21:33 EagleFan unvotes Autumn (-1) #308 21:33 EagleFan votes Danny (6) #309 21:34 Lathum unvotes EagleFan (4) #309 21:34 Lathum votes Chubby (4) #310 21:34 Danny votes EagleFan (5) #320 21:48 Zinto unvotes Lathum (3) #320 21:48 Zinto votes Danny (7) #324 21:51 Danny unvotes EagleFan (4) #324 21:51 Danny votes Chubby (5) #344 22:00 Chubby unvotes Lathum (2) #344 22:00 Chubby votes EagleFan (5) #346 22:00 Danny unvotes Chubby (4) #346 22:00 Danny votes EagleFan (6) Danny 7: ntndeacon (80), Telle (205), jeheinz72 (217), dubb93 (238), Racer (307), EagleFan (308), Zinto (320) EagleFan 6: Barkeep49 (75), hoopsguy (97), Autumn (174), J23 (276), Chubby (344), Danny (346) Chubby 4: bhlloy (117), Darth Vilus (236), mauboy1 (273), Lathum (309) Lathum 2: Narcizo (90), Thomkal (224) ntndeacon 1: mckerney (94) Zinto 1: MrBug708 (134) Last edited by Narcizo : 08-11-2011 at 02:44 AM. Reason: More red for Danny |
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08-11-2011, 02:57 AM
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#931 |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Not going to have time to do a vote thingy for day two. Not at the moment anyway.
I usually give trust to wolf day one voters for a bit this early in the game. But I think Danny knew by 21:00 or so that while he might not get lynched he was going to be getting heat/scanned so I wouldn't be surprised by wolves sticking their votes on him (particularly not on day two). On the other hand the wolves knew that they could potentially save him if they could get it to one vote soI don't think it's worth looking at Zinto, Racer or Heinz just yet. NTN why did you vote Danny when he's such a strong villager? Other than that, purely based on the voting record Chubby looks very bad. I actually feel Lathum switching from Eagle to Chubby at #309 looks like a village vote. Mau's flip-flop and the eventual result of it looks bad for him, but I don't think he does all that as a wolf with a wolf on the block - he can talk it through with his team-mates and decide how to act before posting. |
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08-11-2011, 03:00 AM
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#932 |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Looking back on day one I'm interested in looking at Darth Vilus as well. He left out Danny from his list of vote candidates when it was 4-4-3-3 and was called out on it by Dubb.
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08-11-2011, 04:11 AM
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#933 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
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Quote:
since the item I had was rendered useless by Danny dying, I'm guessing the item vanished |
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08-11-2011, 04:18 AM
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#934 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
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Quote:
huh? Vote lathum if EF passed me the item I had that pretty much seals it, i don't buy lathum's story about the item since there was no reason to not come out and say what he passed me. i doubt danny had the duke power and the taking bhlloy power as well, we all know who i originally thought duked it anyways and lathum - it was 7-5 (not 7-6 as you claimed post lynch) at the point of your switch as EF had unvoted me. i think you moved because you saw the writing on the wall and wanted to build trust at that point but I'll let others discuss that. ntn i am looking at based on voting history, i think Lathum is the easiest choice right now off to work |
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08-11-2011, 04:23 AM
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#935 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
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oh yeah, 1 last thing before I head out. i did not receive any indication from JAG that I was guarded or attacked last night so I'm guessing I was BG'd and that the BG made an awesome guess on somebody else /thumbs up
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08-11-2011, 04:23 AM
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#936 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
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oops guessing I was NOT BG'd (i think i would have received a PM?), still not a fan of editing posts
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08-11-2011, 05:42 AM
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#937 |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Day Two
#403 22:30 Chubby votes Lathum (1) #429 22:51 Autumn votes Danny (1) #470 05:58 Narcizo votes Mauboy (1) #492 09:01 Danny votes Heinz (1) #494 09:15 Zinto votes Danny (2) #499 09:21 Barkeep votes Danny (3) #501 09:32 Lathum votes Chubby (1) #502 09:43 Bhlloy votes MrBug (1) #508 09:59 Narcizo unvotes Mau (0) #514 10:27 Danny Fake Reveals #525 10:48 Autumn unvotes Danny (2) #553 11:08 Autumn votes Darth Vilus (1) #535 11:14 Heinz votes Racer (1) #581 12:25 Bhlloy unvotes MrBug (0) #583 12:31 EagleFan votes Lathum (2) #607 13:17 Narcizo votes ntndeacon (1) #609 13:27 Racer votes J23 (1) #610 13:30 Zinto unvotes Danny (1) #620 13:49 Zinto votes J23 (2) #644 14:24 Darth Vilus votes Chubby (2) #652 14:37 Barkeep unvotes Danny (0) #652 14:37 Barkeep votes Chubby (3) #656 14:40 ntndeacon votes Heinz (2) #670 15:09 EagleFan unvotes Lathum (1) #670 15:09 EagleFan votes Chubby (4) #675 15:16 mckerney votes Chubby (5) #681 15:37 Autumn unvotes DV (0) #681 15:37 Autumn votes Heinz (3) #685 15:58 Barkeep unvotes Chubby (4) #690 16:21 Heinz unvotes Racer (0) #690 16:21 Heinz votes Chubby (5) #694 16:38 Chubby Semi-Reveals #694 16:38 Chubby unvotes Lathum (0) #694 16:38 Chubby votes Danny (1) #696 16:40 Heinz unvotes Chubby (4) #696 16:40 Heinz votes ntn (2) #700 16:53 J23 votes Danny (2) #704 16:57 Zinto unvotes J23 (1) #705 16:59 Autumn unvotes Heinz (2) #705 16:59 Autumn votes Danny (3) #709 17:06 NTN unvotes Heinz (1) #709 17:06 NTN votes Chubby (5) #713 17:14 Zinto votes Danny (4) #714 17:22 Mau votes Danny (5) #722 17:31 Racer unvotes J23 (0) #734 17:49 Racer votes Hoops (1) #743 18:05 Hoops votes Danny (6) #768 18:50 Racer unvotes Hoops (0) #768 18:50 Racer votes Chubby (6) #769 18:58 Barkeep votes Danny (7) #774 19:04 Racer unvotes Chubby (5) #777 19:15 Danny unvotes Heinz (0) #777 19:15 Danny votes Chubby (6) #782 19:21 Racer votes Lathum (1) #786 19:26 NTN unvotes Chubby (5) #787 19:27 NTN votes Heinz (1) #809 21:00 Telle votes NTN (3) #810 21:01 Racer unvotes Lathum (0) #817 21:09 Bhlloy votes Chubby (6) #818 21:09 Racer votes NTN (4) #852 21:46 EagleFan unvotes Chubby (5) #863 21:53 Lathum unvotes Chubby (4) #863 21:53 Lathum votes Danny (8) #865 21:55 Racer unvotes NTN (3) #865 21:55 Racer votes Danny (9) #867 21:55 EagleFan votes Danny (10) #871 21:58 Thomkal votes Danny (11) #874 21:58 MrBug votes Danny (12) Danny 12 - Chubby (694), J23 (700), Autumn (706), Zinto (713), mauboy1 (714), hoopsguy (744), Barkeep49 (769), Lathum (863), Racer (865), EagleFan (867), Thomkal (871), MrBug708 (874) Chubby 4 - Darth Vilus (644), mckerney (675), Danny (777), bhlloy (817) ntndeacon 3 - Narcizo (607), jeheinz72 (694), Telle (809) jeheinz72 1 - ntndeacon (787) Last edited by Narcizo : 08-11-2011 at 05:44 AM. |
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08-11-2011, 05:45 AM
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#938 |
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General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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I'm not nearly as locked in on voting for Lathum today as I was for voting Danny yesterday. I don't think we're going to get any kind of clear-cut yes/no on him, but I view this case as a little more circumstantial than the Danny stuff from yesterday.
Beyond that, if I was going to do voting analysis I would probably look harder at Day 1 than Day 2 because I think that the wolves probably had Danny as a dead duck earlier in the day. They would have been elated to keep him around, but it was not a productive use of their votes to get isolated defending him. So I'm more agreeing with what Narcizo laid out, rather than suggesting we focus on "late D2 switchers". Once again, won't be on much until the final 1-2 hours but I'll try to provide as much value as I can at that time. I'm hoping J23 will confirm that he received the mistletoe, assuming that it did in fact get to him. |
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08-11-2011, 05:52 AM
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#939 |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Can someone clear up the issue with Gleipner and Chubby/Lathum for me please?
Chubby's argument with Lathum is that Lathum didn't pass it to him on night one? Or what exactly is the problem? Not wishing to seem to be overtly defending Lathum but if he didn't pass it to Chubby then can't the person who passed it on come forward and claim that they gave it to him instead? And if Lathum did pass Gleipner to Chubby then doesn't that suggest that the chances are he's a villager? If I was a wolf and had been given Gleipner I'd make sure that the non-Fenris wolves pass it between themselves. The only possibility I can see for Chubby getting it (if Lathum is a wolf) is if Lathum passed it to a wolf and another player passed an item to the same wolf, causing Gleipner to wind up with a random person. Last edited by Narcizo : 08-11-2011 at 05:54 AM. Reason: Added "(if Lathum is a wolf)" |
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08-11-2011, 06:46 AM
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#940 |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Mckerney was probably Danny's most vociferous defender but I honestly don't think Danny would let him put himself out there so much as a fellow wolf. I think we want to be looking at people who were taking a middle road to Danny with maybe one or two who were against him. I actually feel better about mckerney now then I did before.
I think NTN certainly bears a good look but I wonder about him moving his vote off of Chubby when he did but not moving it to Danny. I don't really think a wolf would do that (but what I probably mean is that I wouldn't do that as a wolf). Either defend the wolf or try to get trust by voting them - don't ignore the problem. Given that I wouldn't really make that move as a villager either I don't really know what to make of it. I'm getting a bad feeling off of Thomkal, particularly if Lathum is a villager. (not so much if he isn't). His vote made it 4-4-3-3 day one and was too late to have any value yesterday. Just now I think I'm going to vote DV - day one his vote makes it 4-4-4-3 leaving Danny on 3 and his vote yesterday made (presumed villager) Chubby a candidate. This was before the second run on Danny started and it started a sizeable run on Chubby. Vote Darth Vilus |
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08-11-2011, 06:56 AM
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#941 | |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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W00t, got a wolf, very nice.
__________________
Quote:
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08-11-2011, 06:57 AM
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#942 | |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Well, I'm going to start off with NTN. He followed Danny's vote onto me and I believe Chubby said he thought he was a wolf.
Vote NTNdeacon
__________________
Quote:
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08-11-2011, 06:59 AM
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#943 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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Narcizo, if you were able to put a vote on someone last night other than where you ended, what do you think you would have done? I keep forgetting that even with your wonderful analysis that we need to keep an eye on you too.
Anyway, just asking. Maybe I missed your answer with this already. |
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08-11-2011, 07:08 AM
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#944 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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Quote:
And this isn't an interrogation, I am just curious on your thoughts with the whole deal towards the end of the day. |
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08-11-2011, 07:42 AM
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#945 |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Difficult to say really. I was open-minded about Danny until he fake revealed which felt wrong. I didn't think it worth the risk of voting him though. I've been wrong about these sorts of things before I didn't think it was worth risking the bodyguard over. Then I was drifting into uncertainty about him thinking that he might be alright by the time I went to bed.
I wouldn't have voted Chubby and I think after Autumn's promptings I'd probably have moved to Danny. I would have been happy enough to stay on NTN as well but I don't like to duck the issue and at the time I left my vote on NTN because I didn't see much value in voting the candidates at the time I left (Chubby, J23 and Heinz). |
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08-11-2011, 08:05 AM
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#946 |
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Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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EF. Are you claiming you passed the same item I did to chubby?
Chubby, did you get more than one item passed to you? |
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08-11-2011, 08:13 AM
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#947 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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I would love to see some clarity on the Lathum/Chubby thing. Chubby has some theories, some of which I'm not sure I buy. Hopefully he and EF can cast some light on this, I'm not going to vote Lathum solely because he didn't want to say the name of the item, though I wonder at it.
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08-11-2011, 08:13 AM
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#948 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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I would like to vote Darth as well, that's where I went yesterday and see no reason to change. What did he say about his availability though? Is he around today?
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08-11-2011, 08:20 AM
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#949 |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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He said he would be around more today and tomorrow.
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08-11-2011, 08:22 AM
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#950 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Well, in that case ...
VOTE DARTH VILUS |
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