The Trump Presidency – 2016

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

Every industry I know is dieing for good workers. Good companies value and pay their employees. If you work for a company that doesnt(royal you not specific) then quit and go somewhere that does.

Then there must not be a lot of "good companies" because real wages are not going up.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

Hogwash.


Every industry I know is dieing for good workers. Good companies value and pay their employees. If you work for a company that doesnt(royal you not specific) then quit and go somewhere that does.

National statistics on wage growth don't support that idea.

[Marc Vaughan]

CUTiger - which industries are you thinking of, its not something I've noticed locally here and even in industries which I know are desperate for workers the companies are just working their existing workers harder.

They can do this because the workers have no savings and can't afford to quit their jobs (and lose healthcare etc.) and limited time to even look for another one even.

In case people are interested the area I see this in most is the horse one where Trumps immigration policies have lead to a huge deficit in staffing.

I'm not sure what can be done about things really without some sort of impetus to force corporations to help society move forward - heck that NPR article intimates that its 'ok' to pay awful wages because they contribute to healthcare ... until America actually faces up to the fact that capitalism doesn't magically cure everything the middle class will continue to become poorer as time goes on.

PS - Please note that I'm not meaning 'skilled technical' people in general, this is aimed more at the more common jobs which have a more generalised skillset such as retail etc.

[CU Tiger]

I'm not smart enough to debate you guys on charts and national averages. Better said Im distrusting of stats until I can analyze their collection method, sample technique, etc. I dont know if the graph above is accurate, fictitious, regional or universal.


What I do know is this. I can't find people. I start guys out with a high school degree at $22/hr and give them a company truck. Have good benefits, etc. We are in an area where the mdian home price is $189k. A guy fresh out of high school with no training can make $65k his first year here. 5 years in I have guys making $85-100k. These are skilled but uneducated jobs.


Im not an anomaly.Monday night I sat at the local contractor association meeting. The #1 topic was on finding and hiring good people. One of our member decided it would be interesting to have a poll. There were 37 companies in the room represented. 35 of the 37 were currently hiring and 31 of the 35 needed 5+ people. Universally we are paying more than ever. And cant get applicants.


I have to be careful to respond logically. Its just a hot button emotional issue to me. I get so tired of the oppressed middle class narrative. This is STILL the land of opportunity. If you are willing to work for it, you can change your lot in life. It will mean being uncomfortable, it will mean sacrifice. But anyone who is talented and driven enough can succeed to darn near whatever level they want here.


I think there is a bigger problem about expectation and what a living wage is etc (here is a hint a cell phone isnt a need. An Iphone definitely isnt a need. And a new model Iphone damn sure aint a need)



I think anyone who knows me at all IRL would tell you I'm as average as they come. I'm no smarter than anyone. No unique unusual skill. Not Mr. Charisma by any stretch. But I grew up in foster care. In government housing. And I've now built 3 companies to 7 figure values. I'm not special in anything except my work ethic.



If you want to work 40 hours and complain about your lot in life, you are free to do so. I just refuse to feel sorry for anyone who is only working quarter time.

[NobodyHere]

So are you hiring?

[CU Tiger]

lol. yes. want a job?
Got about 8 friends?

[cuervo72]

How "backwoods" is Backwoods, SC? Is that more for effect or is it an accurate description of the area? I'd imagine if there's that much of a need for workers the area would be desirable and growing and could pull workers from other areas. Of course those workers would need to know jobs are there, have the ability to pick up and move, etc.

It seems as though people from, say, coal mining towns might easily find something else in the current market if they were willing/able to move. It seems more reasonable than pushing for bygone industries to return. Not everyone is inclined to do so though.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

I get so tired of the oppressed middle class narrative.

You can argue whether it's oppressive or not but the statistics point to real wages being more or less stagnant since the 80's while the economy has boomed. Purchasing power has gone down.

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

This is STILL the land of opportunity.

Your level of success is still heavily dependent on your parents income level.

America being the "land of opportunity" is the narrative. The real "land of opportunity" would be a better fit for countries like Canada, Finland, Norway, or Denmark. Countries with much lower intergenerational earnings elasticity.

[whomario]

No offense, but how exactly is your personal experience in one town/region of one state relevant to the vast majority of americans and describes the actual state of affairs better than longterm studies looking at a wide spread of areas, job field/areas and demographics ? Anecdotal evidence doesn't make statistics irrelevant ...

I mean, it's not exactly feasible for an underpaid office worker to up and leave his/her firm in Portland and move to South Carolina on a whim. Even if they knew of those open jobs. Even if you disregard (which it sounds a litte bit like you do) that they might actually be doing exactly what they want to do in life and is living where he wants and where he has social roots set down.

While a new Iphone is certainly not some sort of human right, it also isn't exactly snobby to expect to be paid a reasonable amount in your field regardless of wether a little less is still plenty enough to get by. If everybody just gets by, that isn't going to make all those people very happy that are trying to actually sell all their manufactured goods to the middle class.

And if that employee and 20.000 others would do so, this still would leave a few million people in jobs that are not paying what they should in a strong economy. So that can't be stated/talked about because in your region a few hundred more could earn a decent living and aren't ?

Distribution of people and need for skilled workers is of course an issue in pretty much every western country, but that isn't exactly forced by ignoring other (and dare i say broader) issues with regard to wages in other regions and/or fields.

Originally Posted by RainMaker

The real "land of opportunity" would be a better fit for countries like Canada, Finland, Norway, or Denmark. Countries with much lower intergenerational earnings elasticity.

And much lower educational expense, a working social support system and much more affordable healthcare This simply all adds up over the lifetime of the average person, no matter if there are people who manage to live where there is well paid work, are happy with that work/region, this don't have to go to College to find their dream job and manage to not get seriously ill/injured along the way.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Your level of success is still heavily dependent on your parents income level.

America being the "land of opportunity" is the narrative. The real "land of opportunity" would be a better fit for countries like Canada, Finland, Norway, or Denmark. Countries with much lower intergenerational earnings elasticity.

We're back to this again. I would suggest a happy compromise that US is "one of the top spots for land of opportunity". Still pretty darn significant.

Just for reference, my analysis. TL: DR version is sure the Nordics may have more opportunity but where do most people in the world want to immigrate to? The US.

US vs Rest of World - re: Land of Opportunity - Front Office Football Central

According to Chetty's analysis (see reference in link above), best predictor of upward mobility is not necessarily "income level" but ...

... The strongest predictors of upward mobility are measures of family structure such as the fraction of single parents in the area. As with race, parents' marital status does not matter purely through its effects at the individual level. Children of married parents also have higher rates of upward mobility if they live in communities with fewer single parents.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

... the statistics point to real wages being more or less stagnant since the 80's while the economy has boomed. Purchasing power has gone down.

I do agree with this. As a whole, low to middle class have not had the gains as the upper class for sure.

[whomario]

Not doing this again beyond this one statement: Statistical data isn't discountable by claiming some sort of narrative/"feels"/desire based factor (McDonalds isn't a superior place to eat just because lots of people do, nor does the amount of fans have any bearings of the quality of a sports team. It merely measures their popularity gained at least for a good portion by historic popularity/success carrying over) and aiming to be better than 25th should not be a worthwhile goal for the No1 country in terms of economic power (by a landslide).

Originally Posted by Edward64

According to Chetty's analysis (see reference in link above), best predictor of upward mobility is not necessarily "income level" but ...

US ranks near the bottom there too when comparing with other western developed countries, FYI (at least it did around 2010).

https://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2...und-the-world/

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

What I do know is this. I can't find people. I start guys out with a high school degree at $22/hr and give them a company truck.

Out of interest you say you 'give them a company truck' - so what size truck and what sort of licence do you need to be able to drive it? ... just wondering how common qualified people are, if its a large vehicle then there is probably a declining pool of people who can do that job, simply put driving is something which is 'known' to be time limited as a profession so I can't see many younger people trying to move into that profession knowing within 10-15 years its likely to have been automated out of existence.

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

I have to be careful to respond logically. Its just a hot button emotional issue to me. I get so tired of the oppressed middle class narrative. This is STILL the land of opportunity. If you are willing to work for it, you can change your lot in life. It will mean being uncomfortable, it will mean sacrifice. But anyone who is talented and driven enough can succeed to darn near whatever level they want here.

My main concern with the US isn't the lack of opportunity - I think you can do a fair bit IF you have some economic opportunity to start with (ie. capital to start a business or/and get an education) .... its the lack of stability generally if things don't go according to play, ie. if that startup business folds or you get sick etc. .... most countries give you some fail safes to ensure you can get up and try again ... this might be via. you having your rent/mortgage interest paid and a level of income guaranteed or whatever ... and it generally includes free healthcare.

66% of people in the US can't afford to take an unexpected bill of $500 and have less than a months income in savings, that combined with the lack of a social safety net is incredibly bad for the countries mental health imho and it prevents a lot of people from stepping out and attempting to setup companies and such ... which is detrimental to the US.

[cuervo72]

I'd guess a pickup which is outfitted with tool boxes, maybe along the lines of this? https://www.buildertrend.com/blog/wp...tion-Truck.jpg

My dad had one very briefly, I think (maybe when he was a foreman?). It wasn't actually his, he just had use of it to get to/from jobs. It wasn't like he could go driving it around for pleasure.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

According to Chetty's analysis (see reference in link above), best predictor of upward mobility is not necessarily "income level" but ...

Well income level and how many parents in a home go hand in hand. Although a country like Canada has similar numbers to us in single-parent households yet crushes us in the mobility numbers. So there's likely more to it.

And remember that the ruling party supports policies that increase single-parent households. So if that is the cause for the lack of mobility, our policies don't address it (and make it worse).

The "land of opportunity" was a slogan to encourage immigration as well. Now we're openly hostile to that (well depending a bit on the shade of skin).

[Drake]

I'm seeing wage stagnation in my sector (education IT), but that doesn't surprise me because we're generally behind the wage curve...and are a bit of a soft landing spot for older IT guys who don't have the desire to keep up with the "latest and greatest" and just keep systems running.

I will say that anecdotally, I hear a lot of what CU Tiger is talking about here in south-central Indiana with regards to the skilled trades (mechanics, body shops, plumbers, electricians). Every time I have work done, the conversation turns to how difficult it is for them to find quality help (i.e., not meth addicts) who are willing to work hard and put in a full day. Some of this is, of course, guys in the 50-65 age range griping about how soft the current generation is...but I hear enough of it that I wonder if there's not a grain of truth in it (that they can't find people, not that kids are softer now than my generation was).

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by Drake

I'm seeing wage stagnation in my sector (education IT), but that doesn't surprise me because we're generally behind the wage curve...and are a bit of a soft landing spot for older IT guys who don't have the desire to keep up with the "latest and greatest" and just keep systems running.

I will say that anecdotally, I hear a lot of what CU Tiger is talking about here in south-central Indiana with regards to the skilled trades (mechanics, body shops, plumbers, electricians). Every time I have work done, the conversation turns to how difficult it is for them to find quality help (i.e., not meth addicts) who are willing to work hard and put in a full day. Some of this is, of course, guys in the 50-65 age range griping about how soft the current generation is...but I hear enough of it that I wonder if there's not a grain of truth in it (that they can't find people, not that kids are softer now than my generation was).

From my experience, the kids being softer part is true here too.

Reading the posts I think everyone who posted is right within their own field and experiences. Marc was talking about unskliied workers, CUT was talking about a specific job that requires a certain skill/mindset, you are talking fully skilled, and I see everybody’s projection within the company I work for (we employ unskilled labourers, skilled tradesmen, admin assistants and sales staff which covers most/all of the groups covered.

Aspirations have increased, but expectations as to how live the lives people see on ‘reality TV’ are unrealistic.

Finding people for the unskilled jobs and is easy, finding the right people is really hard

Finding the skilled tradesmen is relatively easy, but they are a declining pool, and I would say that is the only area that I know where wages are rising above the norm.

Finding good dedicated sales staff is not easy at all: the younger generation that traditionally gee up the office and reinvigorate the oldies are soft in general, don’t understand that some things like working all day are not optional
(we recently had a school leaver come in for three days trial, and at 2.30pm on the first day he upped and left saying he thought he had done enough that day, turned up the next day as if that was normal! No apologies, no acknowledgement even! Just one example, and a little extreme, but it is not entirely unrepresentative of the school leavers we see)

Somyes, over here there are jobs, skills write their own cheques to a degree, their is a fluid pool of unskilled labour of questionable quality, but a diminishing pool of young skilled or even willing workers.

[PilotMan]

You know, a lot of our own observations are heavily skewed and influenced by our age and place in life. I mean, right here, on this board, we are almost exclusively 30s-50s, males, we identify with what we know. Our own generational bias comes into play quite heavily. Every single generation thinks that the upcoming generations don't understand what it takes to make it in the world. Every single generation is looked down on.

Even from my own memory, think of how negatively the boomers were looked on. Look at the unrest in the 60's that was primarily due to the boomers coming of age, having grown up in the 50's where things were really good 'for them'. Now between the draft, and culture wars, they were expressing themselves as young adults. Think that the older generations thought they were awesome?

Now, Gen X. In the 80's it was nothing about how lazy and blase they were.

Millennials. Same thing. They are the tech kids who don't understand how the 'real' world works.

Gen Z. The newest to hit the job force. Totally self serving with expectations that they should get everything handed to them (just like the boomers, imo).

It's the same story. It never ends. It's simply the lens in which one looks at the world though.

[PilotMan]

In t-dumb land. I think he's finally crossed the line where the public is totally numb to his antics. They have are burned out from him. He has flooded the landscape for the last 19 months with so much bullshit that it's impossible to give each of it the focus it deserves. So instead, he gets away with it. I mean, look at our own discussions here. We digress into these side topics without really talking about stories like, trump has loaded the seats on the wildlife protection bureau with avid game hunters and personal loyalists. So much that they are suing him for not following the charter, where it says that the 17 member panel has to be bipartisan. The list is too long to ignore all of it, but the public can't find it's way through all the bs to know what is right. Instead, we're talking about the q-anon whackjobs as if they are the real deal. This is where the conversation on trump is failing.

[Marc Vaughan]

This is where the conversation on trump is failing.

I think the problem is that people have realised that their outrage has no effect - millions might march and protest, but if he simply lies about things and ignores them then after a while people feel there is little they can do.

I hope that the next round of elections and voting will be enough to derail his train - but in all honesty I'm not hopeful.

[Drake]

I'm waiting for a liberal populist ideologue to emerge for 2020 who will use the same tactics so the conservatives on my feed can resume their "Wake up, sheeple!" ranting.

[Thomkal]

Evan Rosenfeld‏Verified account @Evan_Rosenfeld









BREAKING: The National Rifle Association (@NRA) warns that it is in grave financial jeopardy, according to a recent court filing obtained by Rolling Stone, and that it could soon “be unable to exist… or pursue its advocacy mission.”

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Evan Rosenfeld‏Verified account @Evan_Rosenfeld









BREAKING: The National Rifle Association (@NRA) warns that it is in grave financial jeopardy, according to a recent court filing obtained by Rolling Stone, and that it could soon “be unable to exist… or pursue its advocacy mission.”

What a crock of shit, just fear mongering to distract and soak it's supporters for money.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

Universally we are paying more than ever. And cant get applicants.

Sounds like you are not paying enough.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

What a crock of shit, just fear mongering to distract and soak it's supporters for money.

Yep, funny how this comes a day after the news breaks that ActBlue raised a billion. ActBlue also raises funds for Everytown, which is starting to get a nice head of steam as it grows and becomes a voice of opposition to the NRA.

[albionmoonlight]

I mean, the NRA might go away. The organization has ties to dirty Russian money. But it will just be a rebranding. If the NRA name ends up being too toxic, it will just do like Blackwater and change its name.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

statistics point to real wages being more or less stagnant since the 80's while the economy has boomed. Purchasing power has gone down.

This is true as far as it goes, but also misses a very important point; that being that the total value of compensation has still increased quite significantly. Heath care insurance, most of which is usually paid for by the employer, has increased in cost much faster than inflation leading to this situation. Given that, I think it's more accurate to place the blame for the situation not on companies but on escalating expectations of and prices for health care - and also to look to that area for solutions. If that were solved in some manner and we still saw stagnation for another 15-20 years? Then we'd need to look elsewhere.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I mean, the NRA might go away. The organization has ties to dirty Russian money. But it will just be a rebranding. If the NRA name ends up being too toxic, it will just do like Blackwater and change its name.

This. It's like a Turkish rug place. They'll go out of business and by sheer coincidence the Rifle Association of America will rise in its place.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Drake

I'm waiting for a liberal populist ideologue to emerge for 2020 who will use the same tactics so the conservatives on my feed can resume their "Wake up, sheeple!" ranting.

This is where panerd says that we already had that from 2008-16.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

What a crock of shit, just fear mongering to distract and soak it's supporters for money.

Of course it has nothing to do with them suing the state of NY for blacklisting it:


National Rifle Association says it faces financial jeopardy in court filing

[Thomkal]

Not a good day for Trump in court-one judge said the administration's efforts to reunite children taken at the border was unacceptable, and they are 100% responsible for reuniting them:


http://thehill.com/latino/400338-jud...grant-families



And another judge today said Trump must fully restore DACA:



http://thehill.com/homenews/administ...mpression=true

[JPhillips]

From WaPo:

Pompeo: “The ultimate timeline for denuclearization will be set by Chairman Kim, at least in part. The decision is his.”

[Thomkal]

Man i bet Chairman Kim is feeling a lot of pressure now. :::rolls eyes:::

[stevew]

So Saudi Arabia and UAE were getting ready to invade Qatar supposedly. And it's not even a big deal with all the other crazy nonsense going on.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by stevew

So Saudi Arabia and UAE were getting ready to invade Qatar supposedly. And it's not even a big deal with all the other crazy nonsense going on.

Can we move the World Cup then?

[jct32]

Originally Posted by stevew

So Saudi Arabia and UAE were getting ready to invade Qatar supposedly. And it's not even a big deal with all the other crazy nonsense going on.

I thought they were fighting in Yemen?

[stevew]

Also Trump refer to LeBron as not very bright, even though LeBron's kids will actually get to go to a real school vs ripping people off with Trump University

[stevew]

LeBron's kids meaning all the students that signed up for his Scott's tots type program in Akron

[stevew]

Shortly before midnight, Trump shot back: "Lebron James was just interviewed by the dumbest man on television, Don Lemon. He made Lebron look smart, which isn't easy to do."

[mckerney]

Maxine Waters is low IQ
Don Lemon is the dumbest man on TV
It's not easy to make LeBron look smart in comparison

I wonder what it is that could possibly have Trump insulting the intelligence of those three.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Maxine Waters is low IQ
Don Lemon is the dumbest man on TV
It's not easy to make LeBron look smart in comparison

I wonder what it is that could possibly have Trump insulting the intelligence of those three.

They oppose his policies?

[RainMaker]

Lebron fits the mold of two things he hates. People who are self-made and people who are black.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Maxine Waters is low IQ
Don Lemon is the dumbest man on TV
It's not easy to make LeBron look smart in comparison

I wonder what it is that could possibly have Trump insulting the intelligence of those three.

They all have bigger hands?

[Groundhog]

I'm enjoying some of the mental gymnastics in the comments of other NBA player's tweets today re: supporting LBJ/slamming Trump: "You're my favourite player, but please don't tweet about Mr President...."

[Thomkal]

According to the Washington Post, Trump now believes his son may have accidentally broke the law

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

They oppose his policies?

I assume this is sarcasm?!

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by mckerney

I wonder what it is that could possibly have Trump insulting the intelligence of those three.

All three are complete nutjobs with IQs below freezing and being quite literally worse than useless since they haven't been put away for their batshittiness?

I mean, that's pretty much plenty.

[Groundhog]

Heard a lot of people say a lot of things about LeBron James over the years, but nutjob/low IQ is new.

[Brian Swartz]

Nothing says IQ below freezing like having a photographic memory. I know that's the first ability that comes to mind when I think of complete morons.