Werewolf 108, The Gang Wars of 1929 GAME OVER - North Siders Win

[Telle]

We have votes and nightfall from everyone except RealDeal and Danny.

[RealDeal]

Sorry, haven't been too involved this game:

vote poli
[/b] vote nightfall [/b]

[Chief Rum]

Wow, Autumn, knowing you're Capone now, I am surprised you ddin't duke to me, with how you were coming at me. So why DT over me? You seemed fairly confident yesterday that I am a wolf.

[EagleFan]

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Telle

We have votes and nightfall from everyone except RealDeal and Danny.

What kind of mod hasn't voted yet? BK would've voted by now. Just saying...

[Poli]

Sigh

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Poli

Sigh

Kinda like standing before a firing squad and hearing them call out just "Ready" and "Aim", huh?

[Autumn]

*snore*

[Telle]

Not that I expect to be alive long enough for it to matter for me.. but what's the plan for weekend play?

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Kinda like standing before a firing squad and hearing them call out just "Ready" and "Aim", huh?

Even worse I bet... more like...

"Ready!"

"Aim!"

"Wait... where's Danny?"


(and then mumbling in the background... "BK would have been here")

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Final Vote Count:

PurdueBrad 5 - Danny (372), Poli (416), EagleFan (451), Daddy Torgo (468), J23 (486)
Poli 1 - KWhit (381)
Chief Rum 3 - Autumn (419), Telle (431), PurdueBrad (455)
Autumn 1 - Chief Rum (437)

Assuming that this lynch is right, then KWhit's vote from yesterday looks terrific from a trust standpoint.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

(and then mumbling in the background... "BK would have been here")

I actually just hope that Danny takes it as the joke it was meant to be. I second-guessed myself after posting it.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I actually just hope that Danny takes it as the joke it was meant to be. I second-guessed myself after posting it.

Yeah, I think he has a good sense of humor, and seems to be very level headed.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Assuming that this lynch is right, then KWhit's vote from yesterday looks terrific from a trust standpoint.

How is that terrific? Seems pretty meaningless to me.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Autumn

How is that terrific? Seems pretty meaningless to me.

He held a lone holdout vote on what is likely the brutal wolf. That is too obvious/risky for a wolf to do at this point.

[Chief Rum]

I agree with Autumn; it's a meaningless vote, the kind I see wolves toss out all the time when their vote's not needed in the actual lynch to later use to establish "trust".

Not that I am saying that means KWhit is a wolf, mind you, but I don't think that vote means anything in the grand scheme of things.

[Danny]

Vote Poli
Vote Nightfall

Good job Telle.

[Danny]

Uunvote nightfall
Uinvote poli

[Danny]

Uunvote nightfall
Uinvote poli

[Danny]

Reasonuing to come, buty we need to not vote poli

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Reasonuing to come, buty we need to not vote poli

Hmm...better make it quick. I leave work shortly and I won't be back until after deadline.

[Autumn]

Um, isn't that too late? And weird.

[Danny]

Unvote Poli
Unvote Nightfall

That was on my blackberry as I realized something while I was out.

I fully believe Telle is the seer and Poli is a wolf, but that also means Poli is the brutal wolf. If we are 5-4 right now then game over even with lynching Poli. If we are at 6-3 then lynching Poli makes this a one lynch game instead of a two lynch game. We have to lynch Poli last.

[Danny]

Vote Autumn

I still believe there to be two wolves out of PB, Autumn and J23 and honestly, I think a villager Autumn notices what I just mentioned the post before.

[Danny]

Also with Poli's second vote on PB, I am willing to give his some slack over Autumn right now.

[Autumn]

Danny, I've already been revealed as Capone. You're just making yourself look like a desperate wolf right now.

[Autumn]

We've already discussed the situation of the brutal. We're not at a point where we can afford to let a wolf live without any other leads. We have to hope there's three wolves.

[Danny]

lol and I just realize Autumn is Capone, so obviously
Unvote Autumn

After reading I also realized J23 brought up what I mention.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Danny, I've already been revealed as Capone. You're just making yourself look like a desperate wolf right now.

I would make sure I knew what was going on before posting if I was a wolf. Any wolf would simply go along with the vote poli vote nightfall group as I guarentee the other wolves did.

[Danny]

I stand 100% by not lynching Poli though, this is either end game by lynching him or reduces the game from a 2 lynch game down to a 1 lynch game. That is not playing smart.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Vote Autumn

I still believe there to be two wolves out of PB, Autumn and J23 and honestly, I think a villager Autumn notices what I just mentioned the post before.

Okay, you're being weird.

Telle already pinned Capone on Autumn, Autumn copped to it and everyone has checked in with no one saying otherwise. No one has refuted Telle's seer assertion either, which means she isn't lying about Capone.

It's only a two lynch game still after the night kill if we kill a wolf other than Poli with today's lynch. If we are wrong (and we likely would be), we go to 4-3 and it's a one lynch game anyway.

I don't believe it's 5-4, BTW. Willing to risk that.

[Danny]

If we are wrong we limit the field down for the next day and the game is still alive, We have just as much chance of being wrong tomorrow and ending the game as we do today and still getting another day.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

I stand 100% by not lynching Poli though, this is either end game by lynching him or reduces the game from a 2 lynch game down to a 1 lynch game. That is not playing smart.

Unless you have an impressive argument for someone else as a wolf that is compelling, I don't see that it's such a smart play to not kill the wolf in hand for a very uncertain result going after the wolves we don't know.

[Danny]

Lets just say we are 6-3 ok?

If we lynch Poli, that removes our two trusted in Autumn and Telle and make this a 4-2 game with no trusted people., so a 1/3 chance of finding a wolf

Right now we are 6-3 with two known not wolves (telle and Autumn) and one known wolf (poli), so a 1/3 chance of finding a wolf.

If we guess wrong today then tomorrow we are 4-3 with one trusted villager and one known wolf. So a 2/5 chance of finding a wolf.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

If we are wrong we limit the field down for the next day and the game is still alive, We have just as much chance of being wrong tomorrow and ending the game as we do today and still getting another day.

If it's 5-4, it was a poorly balanced game to start, and we were likely headed for a loss. No, I don't believe that to be the case. I believe it is 6-3.

And I don't believe waiting on Poli is the wisest move. You're advocating a high risk, high reward move. I don't think we're in a position right now to ignore a known wolf.

[Danny]

Because in a game like this with the need to still find two more wolves and have very little room for error, we need to maximize our chances. Killing Poli makes this an almost certain loss. Not killing Poli gives us better odds.

[Autumn]

The danger though in leaving Poli alive is that we may be falling a false seer, meaning the real one has to reveal, or we let the wolves lead us astray.

[Danny]

It is not high risk. This game isn't about finding as many wolves as possible. We have to find them all. Not lynching Poli, gives us a far greater % of doing that.

[Autumn]

In case I die sooner than expected, I will put out that I would be voting PB tomorrow. I believe the wolves killed EF thinking he must be the seer. EF made a strangely strong case against PB yesterday, and I believe the wolves picked up on it. They had targeted me the night before, but figured from the flavor text (if not more) that I was Capone. They then went seer hunting. If PB was good they would have no reason to think EF was the seer, since he seemed hell bent on PB being bad. I think they figured EF had scanned PB and wanted to off him before he came out and said so directly.

If PB is not bad the would have been glad to leave EF alive, pushing a vote against PB who was a likely return candidate today. In addition if PB was good they would probably have figured PB for either the seer or Capone and offed him, or left EF alive to encourage him to get lynched.

I think it's pretty clear PB is a wolf.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Autumn

The danger though in leaving Poli alive is that we may be falling a false seer, meaning the real one has to reveal, or we let the wolves lead us astray.

Fake or not, there is still two other wolves out there. And really based on the unique set up the seer has this game (knowing specific rolls) I doubt someone fakes with that detail.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Lets just say we are 6-3 ok?

If we lynch Poli, that removes our two trusted in Autumn and Telle and make this a 4-2 game with no trusted people., so a 1/3 chance of finding a wolf

Right now we are 6-3 with two known not wolves (telle and Autumn) and one known wolf (poli), so a 1/3 chance of finding a wolf.

If we guess wrong today then tomorrow we are 4-3 with one trusted villager and one known wolf. So a 2/5 chance of finding a wolf.

But we also then give the wolves 42.5% of the vote with your option, as opposed to 33.3% of the vote control. Only one vote's difference would be a huge bonus for the wolves, who would only need to convince one villager to vote with them (and Poli voting at deadline presumeably).

There's just too much that can go wrong with that.

[Danny]

To solve that you simply make every villager vote along with Autumn. Puts the game in his hands, but not necessarily a bad thing. I'll say right now that in that situation I would vote with Autumn

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Because in a game like this with the need to still find two more wolves and have very little room for error, we need to maximize our chances. Killing Poli makes this an almost certain loss. Not killing Poli gives us better odds.

The odds are against us either way. I don't see a 7% chance difference (on top of the potential voting issues) as enough of a gained advantage to make this play. Unless we have someone we feel strongly is also a wolf. I don't see any compelling argument for the others left in the game at the moment.

[Danny]

It's not a 7& difference. It's a 33% + a 40% as we get two chances by not voting Poli.

[Danny]

So Im not sure the ratio to find out what exactly % chance it is by having both a 33% and a 40%, but its a lot higher than 33%

[EagleFan]

[Danny]

I'd either vote PB or Chief Rum today.

Since Autumn looks at PB I will go there for now

Vote PurdueBrad

[Danny]

I'm off for a little while now. May be too late to switch from Poli, but I've laid out the reasons to do so. It's up to others if they see that as something they would want to do.

[Poli]

[Chief Rum]

Two wolves out of five players. That's 40%.

Or

Two wolves out of six players. That's 33%.

The advantage on the top is not facing a must lynch scenario on Monday. But if we miss both today and Monday, we're looking at only a 25% chance of getting the last non-Poli wolf (1 wolf in 4 uncleared players), and with Autumn gone, we can't then rely on the voting trick there.

I can get behind goign with your idea, Danny. But you're being silly if you don't think it's hgih risk. We're in trouble no matter which way we go, but to say your way isn't high risk is just not correct.