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Old 01-13-2019, 08:22 PM   #1
Young Drachma
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Kyler Murray

I figured the biggest two sport star and first guy to potential go 1st round in both drafts deserved his own thread.



Some of Twitter is in a tizzy over this, but they forget how many dudes used to get deals like this before MLB imposed draft cap rules on guys signing MLB deals out of the draft.

Boras is going to maximize the best value for his guy, and surely they know the risks of him going to the NFL, so perhaps the plan all along once they realized he was Heisman material was to drive up the baseball price to make it worth his while.

If so, genius level move.

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Old 01-13-2019, 08:33 PM   #2
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For context:

MLB Draft's Two-Sport Stars Carry Big Risks, Big Rewards

Dudes who got paid to choose baseball over football:

Quote:
Righthander Zach Lee was considered one of the top high school pitchers in the 2010 draft, and he went 28th overall to the Dodgers. But because of Lee's leverage as a premium quarterback recruit for Louisiana State—where he would have played both sports—he signed for $5.25 million, the third-highest bonus in the 2010 draft class.

Outfielder Joe Borchard set a draft record (since broken) when the White Sox paid him a $5.3 million signing bonus in August 2000 to give up football. The Cubs gave righthander Jeff Samardzija, a fifth-round pick in 2006, a $10 million major league contract to persuade him to give up his chance to be an NFL wide receiver.

Back in 1998, Drew Henson signed for $2 million as the Yankees' third-round pick, even though his contract allowed him to also play football at Michigan. In 2001, the Yankees gave Henson a $17 million major league contract to get him to focus on baseball.

Joe Mauer got $5 million to not play college football at all, Grady Sizemore got $2 million. None of these dudes won a Heisman.
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Old 01-13-2019, 08:47 PM   #3
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Seems smart. He likely knows around where he'd end up in the NFL draft and how much guaranteed money comes with that. So if baseball can offer more, he'd take it.

I do feel like baseball might be a better option. At his height, I still think being a QB in the NFL will be tough. He can also always get a crack at the NFL if his baseball career sputters out (like Chad Hutchinson and others).
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Old 01-13-2019, 08:49 PM   #4
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Would also add that the Cubs did this with Samardzija who had the option to play in the NFL. I think the deal was like $13 million or so with a $7 million signing bonus.
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Old 01-13-2019, 08:59 PM   #5
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Would also add that the Cubs did this with Samardzija who had the option to play in the NFL. I think the deal was like $13 million or so with a $7 million signing bonus.

5 years/$10 million was his Cubs deal.
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Old 01-13-2019, 09:01 PM   #6
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With his size I would say go with MLB. Don't get the crap beat out of you every game.
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Old 01-13-2019, 09:07 PM   #7
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If all he was getting was the original signing bonus, the break even on guaranteed seems to be somewhere around the top 10 in the second round. Obviously this news completely changes that.

I just have a hard time figuring him as a legitimate starting QB in the NFL, at least in terms of longevity. He's going to have to find a team really willing to design an offense around his strengths while also limiting the number of hits he takes.

I'd take the baseball money and the notion that if I can hit above the Mendoza line I can probably get 3 good sized contracts just on my defense and speed, but what do I know.
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Old 01-13-2019, 10:00 PM   #8
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Also depends on the spotlight he wants. Every 1st round QB last draft ended up starting. In baseball he's going to be in the bus leagues for 2-3 years minimum.
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Old 01-14-2019, 12:30 AM   #9
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Murray got 1.5m of his A's bonus so far and has to give it up if he plays in the NFL per The Athletic
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Old 01-14-2019, 09:58 AM   #10
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The baseball folks think he's going to the NFL, simply because more of the money is up front and guaranteed.

Also heard the comment that Boras has never worked this closely with a front office before.
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Old 01-14-2019, 11:43 AM   #11
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Also depends on the spotlight he wants. Every 1st round QB last draft ended up starting. In baseball he's going to be in the bus leagues for 2-3 years minimum.

This. He hits the ground running in the NFL. If he goes with baseball he's going to be the in the minors for a couple of years. Which would you rather do?
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Old 01-14-2019, 11:44 AM   #12
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He's playing it really smart. Keep your cards close to the vest, play both sides off each other, and see what you can get.
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Old 01-14-2019, 03:35 PM   #13
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Well and Murray just declared for the NFL Draft. Sorry A's.
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Old 01-14-2019, 03:50 PM   #14
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So far as I can tell, this absolutely doesn't change his status with the A's. Not until he actually signs with an NFL team.
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Old 01-14-2019, 04:00 PM   #15
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This. He hits the ground running in the NFL. If he goes with baseball he's going to be the in the minors for a couple of years. Which would you rather do?
What he should do is go with whichever sport is his greater passion. It's a grind either way, and while riding buses and staying in cheap motels in the minors isn't very glamorous, if baseball is his true passion then he can get through the tough times better.

Now, from a health and financial standpoint it's easy for me to stand back and say he ought to stick with baseball. And if he's really 50/50 between the two sports, then I think those factors ought to tip him that way. But if football is his true passion, then so be it - he should pursue that and see what happens.
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Old 01-14-2019, 04:19 PM   #16
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He actually submitted his name on Friday, so the A's already knew. And he has 72 hours to withdraw. I wish he'd declare for the draft, go play baseball, and just let a team draft him where he goes. But I guess if they think Arizona is gonna take him 1.1, then that might be too tempting not to do it, no matter what the A's offer.

We're all talking like it's a certainty that it'll all work out, but if he has a not great combine or pro day, his stock falls. I doubt he falls out of the 1st round no matter what, but...why hire Boras and sign with the A's if your end game is just to go to the NFL anyway.

I still think he ends up on the baseball diamond when this is all done, it's just football rules the roost and he might even want to play it more, but...the unknowns are super obvious and there are just so many ways this could go wrong before he even has a full season under his belt.

Baseball is the safer route, and while he'll sacrifice the money in the short term, history indicates the NFL will still be interested in a few years if baseball somehow didn't pan out.

I mean, 1st round talent or not what do we think his ceiling is as an NFL quarterback?

I'm wondering if part of his desire is just to be the first guy to be drafted 1st round in both sports, because no one has ever done that.
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Old 02-11-2019, 01:28 PM   #17
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NFL was his choice as per espn
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Old 02-11-2019, 01:42 PM   #18
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He seems to be coming into the NFL at the right time. A few years ago, his height and the "gimmick" offense he ran would be negatives the pushed him into the 5th round and beyond.

Now? I doubt he gets out of the first round.
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Old 02-11-2019, 02:37 PM   #19
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He seems to be coming into the NFL at the right time. A few years ago, his height and the "gimmick" offense he ran would be negatives the pushed him into the 5th round and beyond.

Now? I doubt he gets out of the first round.

If this decision to play football not baseball is "secure" then he won't make it past pick 13 or so.
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Old 02-11-2019, 02:42 PM   #20
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Financially, he's got to be banking on at least that for it to make sense for him. I suspect he's got feelers from multiple teams inside the top 10, to be perfectly honest.
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Old 02-11-2019, 02:46 PM   #21
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DOLA - one really interesting thing is to see if the Cards are quietly trying to shop Rosen at the draft, I don't think Kingsbury could ask for a more perfect QB to build his system from the ground up. Rosen to the Jags might make a ton of sense for both parties.
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Old 02-11-2019, 02:50 PM   #22
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DOLA - one really interesting thing is to see if the Cards are quietly trying to shop Rosen at the draft, I don't think Kingsbury could ask for a more perfect QB to build his system from the ground up. Rosen to the Jags might make a ton of sense for both parties.

I still argue with the importance of the QB position in today's NFL it's stupid to continue to follow the same approach to finding a QB. Draft one, wait 2-3 years to see if he pans out, draft another.

If they like Murray I don't think it would be a bad football decision to draft him and let Rosen/Murray sort itself out.
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Old 02-11-2019, 03:00 PM   #23
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DOLA - one really interesting thing is to see if the Cards are quietly trying to shop Rosen at the draft, I don't think Kingsbury could ask for a more perfect QB to build his system from the ground up. Rosen to the Jags might make a ton of sense for both parties.


Just can't see trading Rosen yet. By the end of the season, Rosen had none of his starting o-line, and a not as good Fitzgerald to throw to. I hope they give him more of a chance to show what he can do with better parts then he has now.



Cards have been busy this offseason already-signing two cast-offs in the secondary from the Falcons. Would not surprise me to see them go after a veteran WR who's been cut too.
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Old 02-11-2019, 04:17 PM   #24
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Obviously I'm biased but trading a prototypical NFL QB in Rosen to take Murray, when you still don't address your offensive needs, would be a total 90s Cardinals thing to do.
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Old 02-11-2019, 04:35 PM   #25
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I don’t necessarily think either of you are wrong, but you don’t hire a guy like Kingsbury if you want an offense with a prototypical NFL QB running it. Just feels like a bad fit and you might get more back for Rosen that you could use to actually address some of those issues on offense.
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Old 02-11-2019, 06:05 PM   #26
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If I were a QB-needy team looking to make a move from somewhere around pick 13 in this draft, I'd be delighted to deal for Rosen at the current likely asking price. I still think there's something there that can work in the NFL, at least to a "good enough to play through his rookie contract" level at the least.
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Old 02-11-2019, 06:26 PM   #27
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Oh, I don't disagree with that at all. I'm not trying to cast doubt on the fact that he has NFL talent. With that being said, I don't think the offense that his new coach has been brought in to run fits his skillset in the slightest.
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Old 02-11-2019, 08:23 PM   #28
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If the Jags like Rosen it would help their cap issues with cutting Bortles. Maybe the Jags flip their 1/2/3 + stuff for #1 and Rosen if Murray is on the board?

Last edited by stevew : 02-11-2019 at 09:15 PM.
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Old 02-11-2019, 09:27 PM   #29
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Hope it works out for him, there's something cool and unique about being the first guy to go first round in MLB/NFL drafts, no easy feat. That said, it's probably baseball's fault they kneecapped themselves with contracts that don't allow teams the flexibility to sign guys like this, when it was entirely available until a decade ago.

Will be interesting to debate in the next decade or sooner, whether he made the right decision or not.
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Old 02-12-2019, 12:36 AM   #30
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Hope it works out for him, there's something cool and unique about being the first guy to go first round in MLB/NFL drafts, no easy feat. That said, it's probably baseball's fault they kneecapped themselves with contracts that don't allow teams the flexibility to sign guys like this, when it was entirely available until a decade ago.

Will be interesting to debate in the next decade or sooner, whether he made the right decision or not.

Didnít they give the Aís the option to sign him to a major league deal in the end and he turned it down, or am I misunderstanding what happened?
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Old 02-12-2019, 02:46 AM   #31
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Yeah mlb said they wouldn't file a grievance if he signed a major League contract. If he played anything but QB -or- *maybe* Edge/CB/WR this would be a bad move. But that Tannehill/Dalton money is just out there for the taking if he's even a competent starter.
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Old 02-12-2019, 11:24 AM   #32
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I was somewhere online yesterday (I think it was A's fans on The Athletic website) where people were trying to argue that Murray stood to make more in MLB. I just don't see it.

In football, the floor is in the $7-9 million range, even if you are a complete bust (Manziel-Manuel). If you show the slightest modicum of ability to hold a clipboard, that gets you up to around $12 million in career earnings (Ponder-Locker-Weeden). An average starting QB in the Tannehill-Dalton range would put you at $100 million career earnings and counting.

Compare Ryan Tannehill (2012, 8th overall, 30 years old) to George Springer (2011, 11th overall, 29 years old).

To date, Springer has earned $19 million and is scheduled for another $12 million this coming season. Tannehill has earned $67 million and is set for another $19 this year.

Obviously, MLB careers have the potential to last longer and once you get up into your late twenties and early thirties where you are no longer team controlled, the potential for earnings is better, particularly if you are in the elite spectrum of talent.
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Old 02-12-2019, 11:42 AM   #33
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It’s also really bad timing right now for MLB to make that argument given the obvious collusion going on to keep the salary earnings for superstars like Machado and Harper down.

It’s not even close in career salary earning likelihood, and that’s even before you consider that even with a major league deal he’s riding a bus around places like Bakersfield for 2-4 years with the Athletics vs being a starting QB on prime time TV in front of sold out stadiums from day 1 with the NFL.
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Old 02-12-2019, 12:13 PM   #34
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The endorsement money he gets alone from being a top 10 pick as a QB, and likely a starter from day 1, will dwarf his ML deal. He will get tens of millions alone from Nike or Under Armor, and there will likely be a crazy bidding war.

He plays baseball he immediately falls back to obscurity.

I hope the Giants take him. The speed they would have on offense would be insane.
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Old 02-12-2019, 12:54 PM   #35
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I was somewhere online yesterday (I think it was A's fans on The Athletic website) where people were trying to argue that Murray stood to make more in MLB. I just don't see it.

In football, the floor is in the $7-9 million range, even if you are a complete bust (Manziel-Manuel). If you show the slightest modicum of ability to hold a clipboard, that gets you up to around $12 million in career earnings (Ponder-Locker-Weeden). An average starting QB in the Tannehill-Dalton range would put you at $100 million career earnings and counting.

Compare Ryan Tannehill (2012, 8th overall, 30 years old) to George Springer (2011, 11th overall, 29 years old).

To date, Springer has earned $19 million and is scheduled for another $12 million this coming season. Tannehill has earned $67 million and is set for another $19 this year.

Obviously, MLB careers have the potential to last longer and once you get up into your late twenties and early thirties where you are no longer team controlled, the potential for earnings is better, particularly if you are in the elite spectrum of talent.


I think Lamar Jackson as the last pick of the first round got $8MM guaranteed last year. I think thats the safer short term bet.


I think its also plausible if he flames out of the NFL by say 25 he could then go start a MLB career. The reverse isnt true
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Old 02-12-2019, 04:42 PM   #36
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I donít necessarily think either of you are wrong, but you donít hire a guy like Kingsbury if you want an offense with a prototypical NFL QB running it. Just feels like a bad fit and you might get more back for Rosen that you could use to actually address some of those issues on offense.


Guess the Cards heard us speculating about trading Rosen. Tweeted today that the speculation was fun, but Josh was their guy going forward.
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Old 02-12-2019, 11:31 PM   #37
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I wanted him to play baseball so I wasn't thinking about how Tebow is a test case for "you can always go back and play baseball later if it doesn't work out..."
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Old 02-13-2019, 12:34 AM   #38
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Drew Henson/Weeden/weinke and zillions of others are the if MLB doesn’t work out models
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Old 02-15-2019, 11:03 AM   #39
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I understand why people only point to the guaranteed amount he'll get in the NFL but the truth is he is going to end up making a tremendous amount of money and well beyond what is guaranteed. First round QBs not only get a ton of chances to earn the full contract, but barring catastrophic injury or complete ineffectiveness, he'll most likely get his 5th year option picked up and make tens of millions there. Then after that, a better than even chance someone takes a shot at him for a few million a year.
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Old 02-15-2019, 11:23 AM   #40
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If he played any position other than QB, I'd say baseball might be the better $$ choice. But QBs in the NFL tend to stay healthy and, unless he flames out completely, he'll make a lot of money even as a career backup:

Derek Anderson Contract Details, Salary Cap Breakdowns, Salaries, Bonuses | Spotrac
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Old 02-15-2019, 12:19 PM   #41
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That's nothing, Derek Anderson has 2M/season. If he makes the majors, after a few years, he's pretty much guaranteed bank. Just looked up an ok player, Johnny Damon, who took home 100M+ during his career not including endorsements. And baseball contracts are guaranteed. Look at Tulo and guys like that, sign monster deals (Tulo was paid 40M after his release). If you are above average in MLB, you are banked. Shit, Nick Markakis has pulled in 100M+.
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Old 02-15-2019, 12:53 PM   #42
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That's nothing, Derek Anderson has 2M/season. If he makes the majors, after a few years, he's pretty much guaranteed bank. Just looked up an ok player, Johnny Damon, who took home 100M+ during his career not including endorsements. And baseball contracts are guaranteed. Look at Tulo and guys like that, sign monster deals (Tulo was paid 40M after his release). If you are above average in MLB, you are banked. Shit, Nick Markakis has pulled in 100M+.

But that is assuming he makes the majors, and is an average player. No safe assumption. Myriads of guys flame out in the minors, and at that point the NFL may not be waiting.

I went back and looked up the 2016 MLB first round. I consider myself a huge baseball fan. Watch tons of games. Play between $200-$300 a night in DFS. Last year was ranked in the top 300 of players out of 23K. I know most guys on most rosters.

From the 2016 first round I recognized one name. Eric Lauer.

Went to 2015. Recognized 7, and that was considered a great year. Guys like Bregman, Benintendi, and Happ to name a few.

Point being, making the majors, even as a high pick, is such a longshot.

Is there a bit of risk.reward if he does turn ot to be an above average MLB player, sure, but odds are he will do better in the NFL.

The other thing to factor in is all signs are pointing to MLB owners trying to scale back the huge deals guys get.
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Old 02-15-2019, 02:28 PM   #43
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That's nothing, Derek Anderson has 2M/season. If he makes the majors, after a few years, he's pretty much guaranteed bank. Just looked up an ok player, Johnny Damon, who took home 100M+ during his career not including endorsements. And baseball contracts are guaranteed. Look at Tulo and guys like that, sign monster deals (Tulo was paid 40M after his release). If you are above average in MLB, you are banked. Shit, Nick Markakis has pulled in 100M+.

And the last two winters suggests that times may be changing for your Markakis/Damon types.

Stars are still getting paid, if less than what they're accustomed to, but I dunno if Murray would be able to bank on getting paid like Markakis/Damon/Choo unless he reached the majors really early. If he hit free agency at 29/30, and was good enough, a Pollock-type contract would be a reasonable assumption. I'm not sure 9 figures is, anymore.
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Old 02-16-2019, 01:09 AM   #44
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There's also Murray's weird ass dad thrown in the mix, that dude scares me. He always looks like he is absolutely fuming over what he is seeing.
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