Official 2024 College Football Thread

[Swaggs]

PING: Atocep

Re: Fffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffff!

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

PING: Atocep

Re: Fffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffff!

Yeah

Kotelnicki wanted to coach through the playoffs or be paid a shitload to be hired immediately. So he was out. And hold off when the portal opened yesterday.

Writing is on the wall at this point on who it's going to be. It will be interesting to say the least. Which is way different from the Neal Brown era.

[Atocep]

Belichick to UNC looking official

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Belichick to UNC looking official

Good, he has not been a good addition to the Manningcast.

[Ghost Econ]

If Cam Rising goes from Utah to UNC next year, Bellicheck's starting QB will be older than his girlfriend.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

It's usually better to anticipate the future rather than react to the present. Conference bloat was a reaction, not a plan.

If you look at ratings, you get a sense of the national brands. Part of that is network perception, but there are huge differences even within the same time slot.

The uncomfortable reality is that the major conferences have a lot of non-brands. At some point, football will have to break away into a league, and that's going to involve a financial commitment from each individual franchise.

The sooner that's done, the more likely old conferences can re-form, which would work for every other sport.

Feels like that will happen soon. There's not many more opportunities for the rich to get richer by adding teams (Notre Dame, Clemson, Miami and Florida State unless they played themselves out are the only options). Once those join the big boys (or if they don't due to the ACC contract and ND's stubbornness), the only way to make more money will be to either kick teams out, or create a new league (functionally the same). And of course they'll do it.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Belichick to UNC looking official

It must feel good for them to have a coach with experience as a national champion.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Yeah

Kotelnicki wanted to coach through the playoffs or be paid a shitload to be hired immediately. So he was out. And hold off when the portal opened yesterday.

Writing is on the wall at this point on who it's going to be. It will be interesting to say the least. Which is way different from the Neal Brown era.

I'm not liking it and going to have to rethink my season tickets. I guess the one thing it will do is shut up all of the fanboys and "money" people that have wanted him back for the past 15 years. I hope the leash is real short, both for winning and shenanigans. I'm getting too old for 5-year plans.

[Swaggs]

I love the Belichick thing. I think it is ballsier than rolling the dice on a retread or up and coming G5 coach or coordinator. Hearing that he has a plan to create an NFL-like program with the intention of producing NFL players sounds pretty darn good. The only downside, and it is huge, is his age. Still, I'd be happy with trying something unconventional like this at a place like UNC (or WVU) at a time and situation like this.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

It's usually better to anticipate the future rather than react to the present. Conference bloat was a reaction, not a plan.

If you look at ratings, you get a sense of the national brands. Part of that is network perception, but there are huge differences even within the same time slot.

The uncomfortable reality is that the major conferences have a lot of non-brands. At some point, football will have to break away into a league, and that's going to involve a financial commitment from each individual franchise.

The sooner that's done, the more likely old conferences can re-form, which would work for every other sport.

What happens to the non-brands, though? Will this be a situation where the Vanderbilts, Purdues, and Northwesterns can own a share of the league/conference without actually participating? It is also interesting to me to see if/when the winnow the lesser programs out and how broadly appealing it is to have only 30-50 programs playing. I can't see myself, as a guy whose alma mater is no longer in the same league and living several 100+ miles away, being too interested in Florida-Tennessee or Oregon-UCLA like I would be for an NFL game. It seems hard to figure that viewership, in total will increase. I guess they are banking on it not decreasing by much (or at all) and the more elite programs having a much bigger share.

I'd describe myself as eager to see how this plays out, but looking at it with no enjoyment whatsoever.

[bhlloy]

That's the needle they have to thread for sure. Can you keep the things that make college football so attractive for people (alumni ties, rivalries, traditional conferences and bowls, the intersection of education and athletics etc...) without turning it into just another football league?

If you end up with a 30 team league, players who are essentially free agents every year then it's really just an inferior version of the NFL and/or a feeder league at that point.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

That's the needle they have to thread for sure. Can you keep the things that make college football so attractive for people (alumni ties, rivalries, traditional conferences and bowls, the intersection of education and athletics etc...) without turning it into just another football league?

If you end up with a 30 team league, players who are essentially free agents every year then it's really just an inferior version of the NFL and/or a feeder league at that point.

I think you can, but you have to pick one. A league consisting of Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska would be a ton of fun. I think people going to games aren't going to care if the league includes Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State. But what would TV viewership be like?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

That's the needle they have to thread for sure. Can you keep the things that make college football so attractive for people (alumni ties, rivalries, traditional conferences and bowls, the intersection of education and athletics etc...) without turning it into just another football league?

If you end up with a 30 team league, players who are essentially free agents every year then it's really just an inferior version of the NFL and/or a feeder league at that point.

If I had to guess how it will shake out, I think it will be closer to 64 teams, a little less than half the schools in now. It could go as high as 70+. I think they keep the major programs (obviously) along with schools that have strong historic ties and the financial means.

[Solecismic]

We have a few more data points with the bloated conferences. Texas and Oklahoma drew well on SEC telecasts, as did USC and Oregon on Big Ten telecasts.

That's evidence that a league of major college brands would work. Texas/Michigan and LSU/USC both made the regular season top ten list. Georgia Tech/Georgia and Clemson/Georgia made the second ten (Miami/Florida was 21st), and were by far the top telecasts involving ACC teams. Colorado/Kansas a couple of weeks ago was the only game to draw more than 4.2 million viewers during the regular season that did not involve a team from the Big Ten or SEC.

Again, a lot of that is chicken/egg revolving around opportunity, but the brands emerge when you look at different audiences within the same time slot, week to week.

There were 20 schools averaging at least three million viewers per broadcast that had five or more games shown. Seems like a good start to a league. There was a quote a couple of months ago from an anonymous Big 12 AD saying that he didn't know how many Big 12 schools would fully fund the proposed $20 million NIL agreement. Schools that can't probably wouldn't be able to compete in this league because it will require a salary floor.

I don't think the less funded programs in the Big Ten/SEC would want to try that level. And it might be uncomfortable because recruiting has to tie in with concepts like salary caps and floors and there needs to be a CBA so that players can sign contracts and avoid the current problem college football has with the portal.

What happens to the others? They aren't going to run a profit off of football. The trick to keeping football alive in college, period, is figuring out a way for the brands to pay the players and the rest of the college sports world to find a new normal. The bloated conferences are bad for everyone. I would hope the old conferences re-form, somewhat, and for the football programs in the Big Ten and SEC that don't want to try the new league, they can probably cobble together something regional.

[RainMaker]

I don't see any scenario where conferences shrink. The whole point is to reach as many major media markets as possible. The Big 10 didn't add Maryland and Rutgers because they were nice fits, they added them because they gave the Big 10 Network access to the DC and NY market. Same with USC/UCLA.

If they did shrink, it would be removing small markets that aren't helping the media deals.

[GrantDawg]

Television payout for SEC schools last year was $51 million per school. Big 10 was $60 million, expected to jump to $80 to $100 million per school in the coming years. A $20 million dollar floor is a fraction of just the TV money, not to mention donor money that comes into these programs.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I don't see any scenario where conferences shrink. The whole point is to reach as many major media markets as possible. The Big 10 didn't add Maryland and Rutgers because they were nice fits, they added them because they gave the Big 10 Network access to the DC and NY market. Same with USC/UCLA.

If they did shrink, it would be removing small markets that aren't helping the media deals.

I was talking to a coworker and Maryland grad about how the area doesn’t really support/care about Maryland football, so…

(Basketball yes. Football, with the Ravens and Commanders? Not so much! So it’s a fail on that part I’d say. I’m not a native but I’ve been in the state 30 years now; I don’t think I watched much of the Terps this year other than when they played Penn State. I’m watching the B1G anyway, not because of Maryland. I know what the B1G’s reasoning was, I just don’t know that it was justified.)

[cuervo72]

I mean, “access.” These games are on ESPN, ABC, CBS, NBC. It’s not like they’re on Jefferson Pilot.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Television payout for SEC schools last year was $51 million per school. Big 10 was $60 million, expected to jump to $80 to $100 million per school in the coming years. A $20 million dollar floor is a fraction of just the TV money, not to mention donor money that comes into these programs.

It's expensive to run a representative football program. Minimum of $50 million a year these days. And that $20 million floor is just the beginning.

The revenue estimates for this league will probably come in around at least $80 million per team, with a few easily twice that amount. It'll probably need to work with a soft cap, like baseball's, but the system will not support that many Tampa Bay Rays.

I can see around 40 in this league. Too much larger, and you can't set up reasonable schedules. For legitimacy and start-to-finish interest, they need rivalries and proper scheduling.

[Edward64]

List of the bowl schedule.

2024-25 college football bowl game, CFP schedule - ESPN


Other than for the CFP games, the other bowl games seem lackluster other than for AL vs MI ... or is it me?

[Solecismic]

Poor Michigan. What did they do to deserve that matchup? A team that would like revenge for last year's semifinals. A team that was first-one-out for the playoff (Michigan was a long, long, long way from second-one-out).

Michigan is going to be without all four first-rounders for next year's draft, including the two defensive tackles who pretty much won the Ohio State game. One of their three starting quarterbacks this season is now retired and the other two led one of the worst passing offenses in the FBS. Their fifth-string quarterback is already in the portal and everyone's worried about losing the fourth-stringer, who is red-shirting.

It's not going to be a competitive game. I'd be surprised if Michigan can even sell their ticket allotment, and that's not usually an issue.

[dubb93]

I’d said it last year and I’ll say it again this year. This transfer portal timing has to change. They have to be able to make exceptions. Players shouldn’t be transferring off of playoff teams before the playoffs even start.

[HerRealName]

The timing is weird but I assume it is because of academic calendars. It gives players a chance to enroll for the spring semester after finishing up in December.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

The timing is weird but I assume it is because of academic calendars. It gives players a chance to enroll for the spring semester after finishing up in December.

There is enough money involved here to fix it. I get why it happens when it does but it can't keep happening this way. I don't know who it was but one of the coaches compared it to NFL free agency happening between week 18 and the start of the playoffs. It's just silly.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Other than for the CFP games, the other bowl games seem lackluster other than for AL vs MI ... or is it me?

Yeah, it's pretty bad ... but that's by design almost. I mean, you've removed 8 teams from any starting bowl relationship (since the 2nd & 3rd round are still technically "bowl games")

And this year, with 82 bowl slots for 82 bowl eligible teams, put those 4-8 teams in and there's actually 4 6-6 teams playing that would have been staying home. Put the bowl ties back in for the teams removed from the pool and suddenly you get quite a few different looking matchups.

Aside from Bama-Michigan, A&M vs USC isn't awful in terms of historical programs, Iowa State-Miami could be okay this year, maybe SC - Illinois? BYU-Colorado could be okay'ish as a draw too perhaps.

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by dubb93

There is enough money involved here to fix it. I get why it happens when it does but it can't keep happening this way. I don't know who it was but one of the coaches compared it to NFL free agency happening between week 18 and the start of the playoffs. It's just silly.

I completely agree. There are so many accelerated sessions within semesters these days that they can get these guys enrolled outside of the normal time frame for a transfer.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I don't know who it was but one of the coaches compared it to NFL free agency happening between week 18 and the start of the playoffs. It's just silly.

That was a pretty spot-on comment from Kiffy.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Never let it be said that I refuse to call an idiotic (R) an idiotic (R).

Flag planting at Ohio State would be felony under proposed law - ESPN

[Solecismic]

Well, I sincerely hope, looking outside right now, that he ensures the future integrity of Ohio Stadium by adding a clause preventing victorious visiting players from making snow angels on the logo as well.

[Atocep]

WVU is finalizing a deal with its next coach. It's not Sumrall, it's not Kotelnicki, it's not Monken, and it's not Rich Rod. The rumor right now from the OSU side is it's Brian Hartline.

Rich really shit the bed with some of the antics his circle pulled trying to get him the job and it eliminated him.

Also, Matt Campbell used his interest from other schools to get a contract extension through 2032.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Yeah, it's pretty bad ... but that's by design almost. I mean, you've removed 8 teams from any starting bowl relationship (since the 2nd & 3rd round are still technically "bowl games")

And this year, with 82 bowl slots for 82 bowl eligible teams, put those 4-8 teams in and there's actually 4 6-6 teams playing that would have been staying home. Put the bowl ties back in for the teams removed from the pool and suddenly you get quite a few different looking matchups.

Aside from Bama-Michigan, A&M vs USC isn't awful in terms of historical programs, Iowa State-Miami could be okay this year, maybe SC - Illinois? BYU-Colorado could be okay'ish as a draw too perhaps.

Missing those journeymen Wisconsin, Mich State, UCLA, Auburn teams. FSU being ass isn't helping either.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Never let it be said that I refuse to call an idiotic (R) an idiotic (R).

Flag planting at Ohio State would be felony under proposed law - ESPN

Heh! We have broken them, those poor, unhinged people.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Heh! We have broken them, those poor, unhinged people.

I know the rivalry is huge but Ohio State folks having a complete meltdown over it is incredible theater.





[GrantDawg]

Belichick to UNC about to become official.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Atocep

WVU is finalizing a deal with its next coach. It's not Sumrall, it's not Kotelnicki, it's not Monken, and it's not Rich Rod. The rumor right now from the OSU side is it's Brian Hartline.

Rich really shit the bed with some of the antics his circle pulled trying to get him the job and it eliminated him.

Also, Matt Campbell used his interest from other schools to get a contract extension through 2032.

Hartline fell threw. WVU is going to hire Rich, despite the BS, and it's the most WVU thing WVU could do.

[GrantDawg]

Belichick to UNC on a five year deal now official. As someone said on Bluesky, it is going to be real funny to see him lose to Wake Forest.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Hartline fell threw. WVU is going to hire Rich, despite the BS, and it's the most WVU thing WVU could do.

Unbelievable.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Belichick to UNC on a five year deal now official. As someone said on Bluesky, it is going to be real funny to see him lose to Wake Forest.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

I'll legitimately be shocked if this pans out for UNC.

[miami_fan]

I have not picked up a college football text sim since NIL became a thing. I can't remember the last version of FOF that I purchased. I just recently learned about how the old recruiting coordinator job has become a GM job in college football. With Belichick reportedly preparing to separate college football coaching from college football recruiting and bringing more of the NFL to college campuses, I might have to jump back in for a college/pro double if they are available.

[sovereignstar v2]

High Tide! High Tide!

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

I have not picked up a college football text sim since NIL became a thing. I can't remember the last version of FOF that I purchased. I just recently learned about how the old recruiting coordinator job has become a GM job in college football. With Belichick reportedly preparing to separate college football coaching from college football recruiting and bringing more of the NFL to college campuses, I might have to jump back in for a college/pro double if they are available.

With the revenue sharing and cap most NIL collectives are being absorbed by the schools in some capacity.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

I have not picked up a college football text sim since NIL became a thing. I can't remember the last version of FOF that I purchased. I just recently learned about how the old recruiting coordinator job has become a GM job in college football. With Belichick reportedly preparing to separate college football coaching from college football recruiting and bringing more of the NFL to college campuses, I might have to jump back in for a college/pro double if they are available.

And he’s hiring Michael Lombardi to be the “GM” of North Carolina. I listen to Lombardi’s podcast now and then and he is a complete Belicheck toadie and lickspittle.

[Atocep]

Dan Mullen replacing Odom at UNLV?

[sovereignstar v2]

Sounds like Northern Illinois is going to join the Mountain West as a football member only. Was really hoping NDSU would get the invite instead. FCS is going to be the Dakota and Montana schools and not a whole helluva lot else

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

Northern Illinois is going to join the Mountain West as a football member only

I guess there must be money involved to the point where that makes sense, but it's hard not to interpret this as an attempt to ruin the college football experience for as many people as possible. I just assumed the MAC would be exempt from this stuff because the money's not there for them to do anything else.

[sovereignstar v2]

It sounds like there has been some pressure from the powers that be to stop plucking FCS schools, which leaves the most dominant school in the rearview mirror. Dreams of Boise State Mk II dashed

[bronconick]

NIU does this every generation. Ran off to the Big West from 1993-95, then came crawling back when it backfired.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

Sounds like Northern Illinois is going to join the Mountain West as a football member only. Was really hoping NDSU would get the invite instead. FCS is going to be the Dakota and Montana schools and not a whole helluva lot else

NIU has an offer, and the university is apparently discussing it internally today, but the MAC does not allow full members without football programs and the exit fee is pretty steep.

The Mountain West has some cash, so they could pay that, so this is all possible, but there's a "why would you do that" aspect to all of this.

NIU is somewhat of a fit with the Missouri Valley Football Conference (which has some overlap with the Missouri Valley Conference, which would presumably take their non-football sports). But other MVFBC schools like North Dakota State make more sense for the Mountain West, and since they're taking UC Davis (football only), that seems like a plan.

But I'm not seeing the benefit here for anyone concerned. If it's all about these FBS/FCS borders, that's all going to change considerably over the next ten years and the last thing you want is to abandon whatever stability you have.

[sovereignstar v2]

UC-Davis is joining the MWC, but not in football

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

UC-Davis is joining the MWC, but not in football

I have to imagine that changes over time. They're already a pretty damn good FCS school and definitely have the size and resources to move up.