Predict the #1 Movie this (and every) Weekend

[Pyser]

i did a dynasty like this a few years ago, and had some fun with it. pretty simple idea. just predict the #1 movie for the weekend (in most cases, fri-sun), and how much you think it will make. seems simple. proved to be hard.

ill try and post the movies that open each week, to help out. everyone is free to predict.

for bigger movies that open midweek i remember we did stuff like predict the thursday take, 5 day weekend take, and overall take. we'll have to do a better job following up.

but on we go.

[Pyser]

opening this week:
Kung Fu Panda
You Don't Mess with the Zohan


i'm going kung fu panda, assuming all the mom's already saw sex and the city.

$48-million.

[Pyser]

kung fu panda made $60-million.

but whats shocking is zohan made 40 mil. even though it looks horrendous. go figure.

opening this week:

The Happening
The Incredible Hulk

one has the stink of a failed hulk movie on it just 5 years ago. the other has the stink of m. night's last couple movies. tough choice. will pick later this week.

[korme]

Incredible Hulk 45 mil
The Happening 35 mil

[Pyser]

part of me says families want to go see something, which would lead to the hulk winning. and part of me says an r rated horror movie loses some of its teen audience

but i cannot root for the hulk to win after bombing just a few years ago.

happening - 37m at #1

[Swaggs]

The Happening's results should be interesting.

On the one hand, I can see a solid opening weekend followed by a steep drop off if the movie is a stinker like his releases have been.

On the other hand, maybe folks will sit it out on the opening weekend and wait and see (as a result of the recent releases), which could give it a low opening weekend and then a solid run.

Either way, I would go with the Hulk because this is probably the first weekend that most kids are out of school and there will probably be a lot of beach/vacation viewings for families.

I'll go with:

The Hulk - $40M
The Happening - $26M

[Pyser]

results:

1. The Incredible Hulk $54,538,000
2. Kung Fu Panda $34,321,000
3. The Happening $30,500,000

[Pyser]

2 comedies opening this week (makes no sense to me, but, whatever)

The Love Guru
Get Smart

my initial thought is Get Smart. money coming later.

[korme]

Damn, Get Smart is this weekend? I had no idea. I must see it.

[Pyser]

i forgot to predict but i havent cheated anywhere

get smart 44m

[Pyser]

1. Get Smart $39,155,000
2. Kung Fu Panda $21,700,000
3. The Incredible Hulk $21,557,000
4. Love Guru $14,000,000 (ouch)

[Swaggs]

The Love Guru has to be considered an enormous failure between all of the promotion is has been given. They spent considerable time/money pushing it on American Idol, gave Mike Myers a 2-hour SNL special last weekend, and he pretty much used the hosting gig for the MTV Movie Awards as an infomercial.

Hard to believe that it has been over 5-years since Mike Myers has had a non-animated (re: Shrek) hit.

[Pyser]

this week:

Wall-E
Wanted



never bet against kids, even if it has a half naked angelina jolie shooting guns.

wall-e - 61m.

[Pyser]

nice to get one right.

1. Wall-E $62,500,000
2. Wanted $51,118,000
3. Get Smart $20,000,000

[Pyser]

this week:

hancock (wed)
kit kittredge: an american girl

not hard to say will smith will win another july 4th weekend.

3 day weekend - 74m
5 day take - 104m

[Pyser]

pretty good guesses from me again. ill take it.

actual take:
3 day weekend - $66
5 day take - $107

[Pyser]

this week:

hellboy 2
journey to the center of the earth
meet dave


eddie murphy is right out, norbitt aside. journey could do well, lots of kids out there....but im going hellboy 2, comics are as hot as theyve been lately. 41 m.

[Pyser]

hellboy wins at 36. good showing from hancock at 33 though.

[Pyser]

dark knight vs mama mia

not much of a contest. i think dark knight will fall just short of the record though

141m.

[larrymcg421]

It is on 300 more screens, so that will help. I think your number sounds right, but the record is not out of the question.

[Lorena]

Oh, great dynasty!

Never heard of Mama Mia, but yeah, Dark Knight is gonna kill this weekend... I'm gonna say 130M

[Pyser]

Originally Posted by Lorena

Oh, great dynasty!

Never heard of Mama Mia, but yeah, Dark Knight is gonna kill this weekend... I'm gonna say 130M

its a broadway play based on abba songs

it obviously doesnt have a shot in hell. its classic "counter programming". im not so sure itll even beat hellboy 2 or hancock, if people cant get into batman, i think theyd see another superhero movie over a musical. but ive been wrong before. a lot.

[Buccaneer]

Didn't realize you had started this up again this year.

[Buccaneer]

I am still shocked at Hancock's numbers, being perhaps the worst rated Will Smith movie.

[Pyser]

i wonder if hancock was considered a success. 100m for 5 days versus what dark knight will do this weekend...and it opened totally uncontested, too

still, will smith, july 4th, no competition, hes probably the most sure fire box office hit around right now. 8 straight 100m movies, never been done before

[larrymcg421]

Hancock is definitely a success. The critics hated it, but the audience Cinemascore was good. It's going to crack $200 million and will probably fall just short of the original Men in Black total, making it Smith's 3rd highest grossing movie.

As for Dark Knight, the Friday estimates put it at $66 million, which would give it the single day box office record over Spider-man 3's $59 million. I think the $141 prediction may be a bit low.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Pyser

141m.

Originally Posted by Lorena

I'm gonna say 130M

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I think the $141 prediction may be a bit low.

Yes, you are correct. As of an hour ago:

'Dark Knight' sets weekend record with $155.34M

[Pyser]

yeah, it barely beat the record. seems spiderman 3 sold more tickets, but who is counting

interestingly, this was the highest grossing weekend in hollywood history. by far. pretty cool.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Pyser

yeah, it barely beat the record. seems spiderman 3 sold more tickets, but who is counting

interestingly, this was the highest grossing weekend in hollywood history. by far. pretty cool.

Man I can't wait to see it in a couple of weeks.


The Box-Office Top Five

1. "The Dark Knight" ($155.3 million)
2. "Mamma Mia!" ($27.6 million)
3. "Hancock" ($14 million)
4. "Journey to the Center of the Earth" ($11.9 million)
5. "Hellboy II: The Golden Army" ($10 million)

[Swaggs]

Pretty big drop off by Hellboy. I would have figured it would get some of Dark Knight's coattails.

I'm guessing it is going to be considered a pretty big flop if it doesn't crack $100M.

[Pyser]

step brothers and the x files movie open this week

tough to call. my initial gut says batman isnt done on top, though. but i need to look up how the first x files movie did first, though

[Buccaneer]

Batman is already in the Top 5 list for all-time grosses of 8 days.

[Pyser]

im sticking with dark knight. 53m.

[Lorena]

What movies are opening besides "Step Brothers" and "X-Files"? I'm also going with Dark Knight at 60M.

[Buccaneer]

Way low. It looks like $75m, all-time record for 2nd weekend.

[Pyser]

this is a case of me not doing my homework. had i seen that it made about $20m a day DURING THE WEEK, id of guessed way higher. oh well.

so who has predictions where dark knight will end up?

is $500-mil possible?

[Buccaneer]

What I find pretty amazing is that Iron Man, Indy 4 and Dark Knight each have nearly identical total domestic grosses, as of today.

[SFL Cat]

Third week is usually when these movies start to have a massive fall-off in box office revenue. But Dark Knight has looked pretty strong, so even if business drops way off...I think it pretty easily reigns as box office champ by the end of the year.

Also, wouldn't surprise me to see them release it for DVD in time for the Christmas season.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by SFL Cat

Third week is usually when these movies start to have a massive fall-off in box office revenue. But Dark Knight has looked pretty strong, so even if business drops way off...I think it pretty easily reigns as box office champ by the end of the year.

Also, wouldn't surprise me to see them release it for DVD in time for the Christmas season.

Since when do they not release summer movies on DVD before Christmas?

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Pyser

this is a case of me not doing my homework. had i seen that it made about $20m a day DURING THE WEEK, id of guessed way higher. oh well.

so who has predictions where dark knight will end up?

is $500-mil possible?

IronMan has already made $566,905,000 (according to the-numbers.com), and seeing how die hard some ppl seem to be about Dark Knight, I can definitely see this happening.

[Buccaneer]

It hasn't even begun to be released world-wide yet, just in a few countries. Indy 4 already has done $750m world-wide. Spiderman 3 did $890m with 62% coming overseas. Dark Knight will do much better domestically, easily $450m, but for some reason, Batman has never caught on well overseas (Batman Begins did more domestically than overseas with 55%).

[Pyser]

Originally Posted by Lorena

IronMan has already made $566,905,000 (according to the-numbers.com), and seeing how die hard some ppl seem to be about Dark Knight, I can definitely see this happening.

not domestically. no way.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Pyser

not domestically. no way.

Yeah those numbers are domestically and international, but I see The Dark Knight making 500mil domestically easily. It made 75 mil this week and 314 million already and it's been out.. what, 2 weeks?

The Dark Knight

Box Office Summary

Box Office Total:	$314,245,000
Box Office Opening:	$158,411,483
No. of Weeks at #1:	2
No. of Weeks in Top 10:	2

Box Office History

Week	Rank	Wkd. Gross	Theaters	Per Theater	Cumulative
Week #1	1	$158,411,483	4,366	$36,283	$158,411,483
Week #2	1	$75,630,000	4,366	$17,322	$314,245,000

Box office cumulative figures also include daily grosses from Monday through Thursday (not shown).

[Pyser]

mummy 3 vs dark knight this week. if mummy can scratch out 50m or so i think it can take it.

will predict later.

and again, everyone is free to make predictions.

[larrymcg421]

Mummy 3 48m
The Dark Knight 40m

[Pyser]

ive never been a big mummy fan, so i think ill go for the upset. i dont know if anyone is really clamoring to see the mummy, its just theres not much else to see now

dark knight 43m
mummy 41m

[larrymcg421]

Wow, it looks like you got it just right Pyser. I've never been happier to be wrong, as Mummy 3 was a piece of shit.

[Pyser]

this thread is suddenly making it look like i know what im talking about.

i can assure you i dont.

[Pyser]

ok, pineapple express is getting a wed release this week. so we need 3 and 5 day totals. im at a total loss, so this is just throwing numbers up with no real logic behind them

3 day - 62m
5 day - 96m

which seems a lot for an r-rated comedy, but people seem excited about this one, at least around where i live

[larrymcg421]

I have no idea what Pineapple Express will do, but I think that may be a bit high. I'll say 40m 3 day and 60m 5 day.

As for Dark Knight, this is the week where it starts to fall behind Titanic. Titanic has the 4th weekend record with a 28m total, and I think we're looking at about 26m for Dark Knight. Dark Knight will have to start to flatten out if it wants to catch Titanic. If it keeps dropping 40-50%, then it's not going to reach $600 million, although it will definitely become only the 2nd movie ever to cross $500 million.