WW XCV: Land of the Role Reveals GAME OVER

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Meaning you voted EF in the hopes of keeping a tie with DT and Lerriuqs?

yea, I know it sounds inane or at least like I wasnt paying attention. (Clearly I wasnt.) I used the vote ahead of me as the way the group was feeling. Horrible move I know. and really to keep the tie with lerriuqs. I did not realize DT was in the mix at the time. then I went to clean as I had house guests coming. did not get back to look til today. so I did not see Barkeeps vote talley later on.

[Lathum]

CR, I think we are trusting him because no one has claimed otherwise. It seems at some point we need to put some faith in semi trusted players early.

[ntndeacon]

believe dubb

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Can someone explain to me how dubb is proven and trusted, given that the Duke could be anyone who was not on lerriuqs (faulty reasoning to assume Duke is on DT, per the tiebreaker rules, that does not have to be the case), and the real Duke (if it's not dubb) would not be able to take care of dubb traditionally (no lynch power)?

Look, I know he's probably exactly who he says he is, but it still feels to me like we're rushing to trust him, and now hand him a powerful seer role, when, to my knowledge, he still hasn't proven a thing.

I certainly hope that the real Duke (if it's not dubb) is paying attention and will reveal himself to settle this. The unfortunate thing is that if dubb is the real Duke, there will be no Duke to positively confirm it (of course). We can only negatively reject it with a real Duke reveal, or wonder if the real Duke is staying silent for some reason.

Based on the vote

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

DaddyTorgo 6 – lerriuqs (250), Danny (306), Racer (312), EagleFan (383), Tyrith (411), Dubb (420)

No one else has claimed the role. Myself, Tyrith and Racer have said we're not the duke, Eaglefan is dead and Danny is not disputing either. Ergo, Dubb is all that's left. So either someone is choosing not to reveal or Dubb is the duke.

[dubb93]

Vote Count:

Schmidty - 1 - Racer (590)

MartinD - 1 - lerriuqs (597)

Tyrith - 1 - Danny (605)

Danny - 1 - Tyrith (641)

Believe for Seer: (Possible 15 votes, takes 6 to get to 40%)

Dubb - 11 - Tyrith (578), Racer (581), dubb (582), lerriuqs (585), PB (589), Danny (601), Lathum (618), Telle (629), hoops (641), saldana (643), ntn (653)

CR - 3 - lerriuqs (571), Tyrith (576), saldana (579)

PB - 1 - USFL (550) **PB is not eligible

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

CR, I think we are trusting him because no one has claimed otherwise. It seems at some point we need to put some faith in semi trusted players early.

If that's the case, then I truly do hope that he is the Duke, and not that there is a real Duke choosing to keep silent. Because we're about to hand him perhaps the most powerful role in the game. And if anyone was paying attention in the last game, you might realize he's a pretty dangerous person to hand that power to without some legit verification of his allegiance.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

If that's the case, then I truly do hope that he is the Duke, and not that there is a real Duke choosing to keep silent. Because we're about to hand him perhaps the most powerful role in the game. And if anyone was paying attention in the last game, you might realize he's a pretty dangerous person to hand that power to without some legit verification of his allegiance.

A real duke choosing to be silent would be super fail today. Dubb has insisted that he really is the duke and is not the villager trying to play something. There comes a limit to the usefulness of secrecy if it comes at the sacrifice of clarity. And the only legit verification we have is seer scans and corpses. One of those is in short supply, and the other is pretty useless to us.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

If that's the case, then I truly do hope that he is the Duke, and not that there is a real Duke choosing to keep silent. Because we're about to hand him perhaps the most powerful role in the game. And if anyone was paying attention in the last game, you might realize he's a pretty dangerous person to hand that power to without some legit verification of his allegiance.

Given that the tiebreaker vote has been established - it makes no sense to hide their role at this point and everyone who voted DT has been active with no one else claiming.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

Based on the vote


No one else has claimed the role. Myself, Tyrith and Racer have said we're not the duke, Eaglefan is dead and Danny is not disputing either. Ergo, Dubb is all that's left. So either someone is choosing not to reveal or Dubb is the duke.

lerriuqs, no one seems to have carped to what I have been pointing out since last night--we have no indication that DT wasn't lynched via the second tiebreaker, not the first. Everyone is assuming the first, and that the Duke has to be in the DT list. While that might be true, what we actually know to be true is that the Duke was NOT on you last night. That's not the same as saying he IS on DT.

There were four or five other players (including myself) who were not on DT or on youself who are also perfectly likely to be the Duke. BTW, no, I am not the Duke.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

lerriuqs, no one seems to have carped to what I have been pointing out since last night--we have no indication that DT wasn't lynched via the second tiebreaker, not the first. Everyone is assuming the first, and that the Duke has to be in the DT list. While that might be true, what we actually know to be true is that the Duke was NOT on you last night. That's not the same as saying he IS on DT.

There were four or five other players (including myself) who were not on DT or on youself who are also perfectly likely to be the Duke. BTW, no, I am not the Duke.

I'm sure the second tiebreaker only comes into play if the Duke is dead.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

A real duke choosing to be silent would be super fail today. Dubb has insisted that he really is the duke and is not the villager trying to play something. There comes a limit to the usefulness of secrecy if it comes at the sacrifice of clarity. And the only legit verification we have is seer scans and corpses. One of those is in short supply, and the other is pretty useless to us.

I agree completely. In the end, I'll probably abide by things because, as Lathum said, we have to trust someone some time, and there is at least some evidence (almost all circumstantial) to support dubb's assertion. But that doesn't mean we should accept it without questioning. Especially since I see the entire village has misread the tiebreaker rules to this point.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

I'm sure the second tiebreaker only comes into play if the Duke is dead.

Read the rules. The second tiebreaker comes into play if the Duke does not break the tie. That could come by death. It could also come by the Duke not being on one of the main candidates.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Read the rules. The second tiebreaker comes into play if the Duke does not break the tie. That could come by death. It could also come by the Duke not being on one of the main candidates.

Yeah, that just occurred to me - well neither Schmidty nor ntn has claimed it either and I believe both have shown up today...

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

I'm sure the second tiebreaker only comes into play if the Duke is dead.

From rules post:

What about with a tie?
The Duke breaks the tie. If the Duke is not able to break the tie, it will be the person who received the last vote that day.


I can see 'if the Duke is not able to break the tie' being interpreted as 'if the Duke's vote is not on one of the tied lynch candidates', as well as 'if the Duke is not available because he's already dead'...

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Lathum

CR, I think we are trusting him because no one has claimed otherwise. It seems at some point we need to put some faith in semi trusted players early.

Also, I'm pretty sure that everyone else who voted for Daddy Torgo last night is either dead (EagleFan) or has come out and said they aren't the Duke (myself included).

[ntndeacon]

A question...
what would happen in a tie that the duke was not involved in?

[ntndeacon]

ok I see now my question has already been answered

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

Yeah, that just occurred to me - well neither Schmidty nor ntn has claimed it either and I believe both have shown up today...

Yeah, as I said before, dubb's likely the Duke. It would take a fortuitous set of circumstances for him to not be the Duke and have gotten this many breaks his way, with the lynch and a silent real Duke not speaking up.

I am just concerned that we're handing out trust so easily at this point. Perhaps I am being overly cautious, but I would feel a lot better if dubb were more clearly vouched for by a completely separate individual, preferably with some role for doing so (like the seer). PB scanning dubb last night would have helped, but I certainly can't argue against him scanning me.

[Lathum]

Vote Danny

I don't have much to go on, but I don't want to introduce a new candidate ( not sure who I would introduce anyway) and starting with the DT voters is as good a place as any.

Want to get a vote in now because I am picking my wife up from work and if we go out for drinks or something I won't be back.

[ntndeacon]

and officially iam not the duke.

[Chief Rum]

Is the reasoning on voting a DT voter simply because he was a villager?

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

PB scanning dubb last night would have helped, but I certainly can't argue against him scanning me.

I am the duke. PB is more than welcome to scan me tonight.

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

VOTE MARTIND

The number of early votes on my all citing the "cultist" theme as their reason makes me think I had at least one or two wolves on me. Martin's spot seems off since he was going to vote me, then wasn't, then was...Just looks like there was outside info adding to this.

Does this mean that publicly changing your mind can get added to that list of actions that 'prove' that someone is a wolf that was kicking about in the Group Therapy game?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Is the reasoning on voting a DT voter simply because he was a villager?

pretty much.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by MartinD

Does this mean that publicly changing your mind can get added to that list of actions that 'prove' that someone is a wolf that was kicking about in the Group Therapy game?

Whatever works.

[MartinD]

I'll admit to having a few misgivings about the plan that PurdueBrad has put forward - while it looks good on the surface, I think that it may be based on a few somewhat shaky assumptions. In particular, it's all based on PB's declaration that he is the seer - there's no way of proving this, and there's also a 50-50 chance that he's the false seer.

(Yes, I realise that I've been a bit negative so far during the game - most of what I've posted has been trying to pick holes in analysis posted by other players, but it's pretty much force of habit for me to do that sort of thing (mostly down to my education and line of work, where scepticism is seen as a virtue - 'don't believe it unless you can prove it' is a fair description of how I need to think at work a lot of the time...))

[Danny]

I feel very strongly PB is the seer or false seer. With that said, I do think there are a lot of assumptions in his plan and the potential for a wrench to be thrown into that.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Lathum

pretty much.

And you do realize for all intents and purposes I planned to have my vote on Lerriuqs and not DT right? It turned out Barkeep went with the different minute deadline that I am used to, so my vote didn't count, but the intention was there.

[USFLTecmo]

DISBELIEVE PB AS SEER

Now that I know he's not eligible, figures I shouldn't be looking towards him.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I am just concerned that we're handing out trust so easily at this point. Perhaps I am being overly cautious, but I would feel a lot better if dubb were more clearly vouched for by a completely separate individual, preferably with some role for doing so (like the seer). PB scanning dubb last night would have helped, but I certainly can't argue against him scanning me.

I totally agree with you about handing out trust too early. At the same time, as Lathum said, we have to do something at some point. Twiddling our thumbs out of extreme caution does us nothing other than give more time for the wolves to wreak havoc.

I'm going to go on the side of action:

Believe dubb

Also, I am not the Duke. I am vanilla.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Racer

Vote Schmidty

There doesn't seem to be a push towards anyone right now and there doesn't seem to be any new information that points to anyone being bad in particular. Voting for Schmidty for the time being because he's been quiet and had the chance to move his vote when it was obviously a throw-away vote, but didn't (only one to vote for Martin).

Two things:

1. I am usually quiet at the beginning, as most will attest to.

2. I generally hate jumping on bandwagons day one, as they will attest to too. That annoys people like Lathum, but I always do it.

I think that you voting for me for my "silence" is a cop-out. Since I don't know where else to go, and because your vote seems opportunistic (since you probably thought I wouldn't be around enough to refute it), I am going with you.

Vote Racer

Subject to change of course.

[MartinD]

I can't help feeling that (at least) one of the wolves has managed to insinuate their way into the village's 'master plan' for winning the game, leaving the wolves in an ideal position to manipulate the rest of us as they please. Unfortunately, I don't have the time right now to work my way through the thread to try to find out more...

This vote is, therefore, a bit hurried, and could potentially be seen as a hit-and-run (given that I'm done for the night once I've finished this post). I really don't have much feel at the moment for who might potentially be a wolf, so have gone with Lathum's logic (that it's pretty likely that at least one wolf voted for DT on Day 1).

VOTE TYRITH

(I was considering voting for lerriuqs again (and will definitely have him on my shortlist for tomorrow's vote, if I'm around to make it), but there doesn't seem to be much support for a lerriuqs lynch at this point.)

(I haven't posted any 'believe' votes, because it looks like a foregone conclusion that dubb is going to be voted as seer - the one vote I could contribute, either for or against, isn't going to have any impact on the result.)

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Danny

And you do realize for all intents and purposes I planned to have my vote on Lerriuqs and not DT right? It turned out Barkeep went with the different minute deadline that I am used to, so my vote didn't count, but the intention was there.

I was under the impression near the deadline yesterday that you wanted to make it a tie so we had a good idea whether or not Dubb was really the Duke or not. Basically, you didn't seem to care whether we lynched DT or Lerriuqs, you just wanted to make it a tie vote so saying you planned to vote for Lerriuqs isn't really fair either.

It turnneed out to be a good idea since I think everyo not on Lerriuqs has either come out and said they are not the Duke and/or believing Dubb as the Seer (which implies they aren't the Duke).

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Danny

I feel very strongly PB is the seer or false seer. With that said, I do think there are a lot of assumptions in his plan and the potential for a wrench to be thrown into that.

Danny, I highly agree but I felt that if we took a back seat this game, we would be in trouble so I wanted to push things.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Two things:

1. I am usually quiet at the beginning, as most will attest to.

2. I generally hate jumping on bandwagons day one, as they will attest to too. That annoys people like Lathum, but I always do it.

I think that you voting for me for my "silence" is a cop-out. Since I don't know where else to go, and because your vote seems opportunistic (since you probably thought I wouldn't be around enough to refute it), I am going with you.

Vote Racer

Subject to change of course.

My vote's primary intention was to try to get you to talk. Of course, #2 was also a big reason. Since I haven't really played any games with you (that I remember - although I think you were the GM in the last game I played), I think it's ridiculous to suggest that I would vote for you because I thought you wouldn't be around.

[Racer]

Dola, even if I was a wolf, I don't think I would vote for someone just because I thought they wouldn't be around.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Racer

I was under the impression near the deadline yesterday that you wanted to make it a tie so we had a good idea whether or not Dubb was really the Duke or not. Basically, you didn't seem to care whether we lynched DT or Lerriuqs, you just wanted to make it a tie vote so saying you planned to vote for Lerriuqs isn't really fair either.

It turnneed out to be a good idea since I think everyo not on Lerriuqs has either come out and said they are not the Duke and/or believing Dubb as the Seer (which implies they aren't the Duke).

That's correct, but I was addressing Lathum's idea that at least one wolf had to be set on lynching DT where like you said, I didn't have a preference.

[Danny]

I need to leave in a few for class, not sure if I will be back for deadline or not.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by MartinD

(I haven't posted any 'believe' votes, because it looks like a foregone conclusion that dubb is going to be voted as seer - the one vote I could contribute, either for or against, isn't going to have any impact on the result.)

That's a poor move. Someone (hoops?) already pointed out how slim our margin is. All it would take is for some disagreement to develop or another candidate, and all of a sudden we would have less than 40% on all candidates.

I think it's definitely a negative to withhold any belief votes, and to not be a part of setting up a believed seer looks even worse, as no role can hurt the wolves more.

Although I would guess this would be a rather overt, and thus unlikely to be a wolf, move, it's still a point against you in my mind, and makes me wonder if you might actually be the cultist.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

That's a poor move. Someone (hoops?) already pointed out how slim our margin is. All it would take is for some disagreement to develop or another candidate, and all of a sudden we would have less than 40% on all candidates.

I think it's definitely a negative to withhold any belief votes, and to not be a part of setting up a believed seer looks even worse, as no role can hurt the wolves more.

Although I would guess this would be a rather overt, and thus unlikely to be a wolf, move, it's still a point against you in my mind, and makes me wonder if you might actually be the cultist.

Did Martin actually claim the cultist role at some point? I thought that was just Lerriuqs and I.

If reason isn't because he did or you thought he claimed the cultist role, I'd be interested to knowing your reasoning.

That said, I agree with you that there is no reason why Martin shouldn't be voting to believe dubb.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Racer

Did Martin actually claim the cultist role at some point? I thought that was just Lerriuqs and I.

If reason isn't because he did or you thought he claimed the cultist role, I'd be interested to knowing your reasoning.

That said, I agree with you that there is no reason why Martin shouldn't be voting to believe dubb.

I don't know that Martin is the cultist. I am just noting that his decision on his belief votes is rather overtly wolfish, maybe too wolfish to buy as it being by a wolf. Which is why it is suggestive to me that he might have tripped up as the cultist, perhaps going too far to play his hand so the wolves would know who he was.

I can't think of a positive way to look at his decision to withhold his belief votes, especially from setting up the believed seer.

[Chief Rum]

Heading home. Will post and vote when I get there.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I don't know that Martin is the cultist. I am just noting that his decision on his belief votes is rather overtly wolfish, maybe too wolfish to buy as it being by a wolf. Which is why it is suggestive to me that he might have tripped up as the cultist, perhaps going too far to play his hand so the wolves would know who he was.

I can't think of a positive way to look at his decision to withhold his belief votes, especially from setting up the believed seer.

Ah, that makes sense.

[PurdueBrad]

I don't have a count but I think it is a three or four horse race at this point. Like Lathum, I don't want to introduce anybody new, meaning it is Tyrith, Danny, lerriuqs, or MartinD. I'm going to go back and poke around through some posts just to see if I can find something.

[Tyrith]

Ugh, yeah, this is a total mess. And I feel like we have something like six votes still uncast.

[PurdueBrad]

I guess I'm going to do something that I disagreed with last game (just a bit, hehe) and that is vote to get some information.

vote lerriuqs

[lerriuqs]

Up to date count...I think.

Votes:
Schmidty - 1 - Racer (590)
MartinD - 1 - lerriuqs (597)
Tyrith - 2 - Danny (605), Martin D (682)
Danny - 2 - Tyrith (641), Lathum (669)
Racer – 1 – Schmidty (681)

Believe for Seer: (Possible 15 votes, takes 6 to get to 40%)

Dubb - 12 - Tyrith (578), Racer (581), dubb (582), lerriuqs (585), PB (589), Danny (601), Lathum (618), Telle (629), hoops (641), saldana (643), ntn (653), Schmidty (680)
CR - 3 - lerriuqs (571), Tyrith (576), saldana (579)

[dubb93]

I'm most interested in MartinD's unwillingness to vote for either CR or I today. I would prefer he vote me, but if he feels like I am not a good choice for the love of god vote CR. This is a vote that gives us a seer.

[lerriuqs]

Votes:
Schmidty - 1 - Racer (590)
MartinD - 1 - lerriuqs (597)
Tyrith - 2 - Danny (605), Martin D (682)
Danny - 2 - Tyrith (641), Lathum (669)
Racer – 1 – Schmidty (681)
lerriuqs - 1 - PurdueBrad (696)

Believe for Seer: (Possible 15 votes, takes 6 to get to 40%)

Dubb - 12 - Tyrith (578), Racer (581), dubb (582), lerriuqs (585), PB (589), Danny (601), Lathum (618), Telle (629), hoops (641), saldana (643), ntn (653), Schmidty (680)
CR - 3 - lerriuqs (571), Tyrith (576), saldana (579)

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I guess I'm going to do something that I disagreed with last game (just a bit, hehe) and that is vote to get some information.

vote lerriuqs

what information are you hoping to get?