Werewolf XXXVI: Resident Evil (S.T.A.R.S. Wins! Post #1424)

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

And why do you think there is no police chief Alant? Couldn't it be Anxiety or Chief? Somebody with not a lot of posts because of time constraints?

Alan and/or hoops opined that there's nobody with a "chief" voting pattern right now.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

If you are stars spleen then we are on the same side and we need to stop picking on eachother and go after somebody else, like Glen or Sndvls

Do you think you two fought long enough before coming to the decision that you are both STARS and should be looking at someone else? You guys might have wanted to sell this fight a little bit longer.

[hoopsguy]

Spleen Day 2 posts:
#423 - tells Alan his theory on Cronin vs Fouts may not be as good as he thinks it is (certainly 1/2 right)
#429 - Alan revealing his theory has "shot holes in my strategy" - Spleen, care to mention what the heck your strategy has been?
#462 - thinks Alan is a better candidate than Cronin or Fouts
#469 - still thinks Alan's theory is "bunk", that his pushing it is a "red flag". Sticking to his "strategy", wants to see how things develop today.
#564 - votes Alan for his conviction in theory that Spleen does not trust, may not be around later in day


And that is all he posted on Day 2.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by BrianD

Do you think you two fought long enough before coming to the decision that you are both STARS and should be looking at someone else? You guys might have wanted to sell this fight a little bit longer.

dola,

Right after I say this I see LSG voted for Spleen. I think this fight is still worth watching to see if it was real or not.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

And why do you think there is no police chief Alant? Couldn't it be Anxiety or Chief? Somebody with not a lot of posts because of time constraints?

I am basing my thoughts on people's behavior to me as well as behavior to other known stars players. Considering vote counts a little bit, but basing it more on behavior more than anything. For instance on day 2 for a while you were still on my list of possible people who could be the chief (I had like 11-12 or so entering day 2), but I scratched you off based on your interaction with me that day. (not necessarily voting for me but more how you interacted).

I could be wrong about there not being a chief, but its my feeling right now. I am also starting to wonder if there are other roles listed not in the game. Primary ones I'm thinking about are the Assassin (often times you see the assassin go by night 3-4 as they want to use the ability before they get nightkilled or lynched), and the witness (we've had 3 nights and so far no hit from IA or the witness role?)

Main reason I am wondering this is trying to figure out if there is a place for all of these vanilla stars people still around. I think there are a few roles that would call themselves vanilla to try to keep from outing themselves.

The thing I am most afraid of right now is trying to figure out who was converted. Basically anything that i previously felt about anyone could possibly have been reset last night anyways with a conversion.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

hoops you are being quiet... that isn't like you.

Was digging up old posts - took awhile to search through the ten pages of Day 2 posts.

[BrianD]

I have also come to the belief that there is no PC, but I'm basing this mostly on votes. I don't think anyone has voted like a PC...even one that is trying to avoid detection.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Spleen Day 2 posts:
#423 - tells Alan his theory on Cronin vs Fouts may not be as good as he thinks it is (certainly 1/2 right)
#429 - Alan revealing his theory has "shot holes in my strategy" - Spleen, care to mention what the heck your strategy has been?
#462 - thinks Alan is a better candidate than Cronin or Fouts
#469 - still thinks Alan's theory is "bunk", that his pushing it is a "red flag". Sticking to his "strategy", wants to see how things develop today.
#564 - votes Alan for his conviction in theory that Spleen does not trust, may not be around later in day


And that is all he posted on Day 2.

I am not quite sure what you are or are not trying to prove right now. Like I stated, the way Spleen came out right after you with some various thoughts smelled pretty fishy to me at the time like trying to save Cronin. Since Cronin did not end up bad, it lessened my bullseye on Spleen a bit. I think what you posted as far as what spleen said on day 2 pretty much supports why I would have felt that way right?

[hoopsguy]

Alan, after going through the Day 2 stuff I'm not sure that Spleen and I interacted at all, although both of us did with you. Or is the fact that both of us challenged your theory, but didn't talk to each other going to be proof that we are both bad?

I'm having a hard time coming up with reasons to believe that people are STARS today. Believe it or not, no one coming out saying Alan is NOT is a better reason than just about anything else I have listed so far.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, after going through the Day 2 stuff I'm not sure that Spleen and I interacted at all, although both of us did with you. Or is the fact that both of us challenged your theory, but didn't talk to each other going to be proof that we are both bad?

I'm having a hard time coming up with reasons to believe that people are STARS today. Believe it or not, no one coming out saying Alan is NOT is a better reason than just about anything else I have listed so far.

I think the link between you two was more due to timing in the morning than anything. (I was at work so might not have been exact timing, but I know each time i would check back there would be one post from hoops and one from spleen each time in response , as well as fouts who was taking an entirely different angle).

I still dont understand why you are pushing spleen on me trying to get me to give you reasons why he is bad. If I had to choose, I think you are more likely to be a zombie than him. I think there are a few people I find more likely to be a zombie than spleen perhaps right now. He's just up there on my distrust list.

The only thing I have said negative about spleen today I think was I found it funny someone with 28 posts was pushing for people who are UtR and going after someone with 1/3 more posts than him.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I'm trying to understand Spleen as a candidate for my vote today.

He could have found your theory to be bunk because of potential impact on Fouts, not on Cronin.

Who would have a good reason to be certain your theory was bunk on Day 2? Well, Police Chief would be one. Someone who had scanned one of the two parties and knew their faction? But he was faulting your theory before Chubby sent PMs (post #423).

Spleen is not the Chief - there would have been an opportunity for him to turn the Day 3 vote when he put his in if he came out loudly.

I'm of a strong suspicion that he is not a vanilla STARS. There is a drastic change in his style of play. He has alluded to a "strategy" that there is no vision of executing. He is calling out UTR players when he has been more UTR than most (based on posts and change in style of play). If I was voting right now, he would have my vote.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, based on your distrust list you think I'm more likely to be a Zombie than anyone left in the game. So saying you suspect me more than Spleen isn't exactly new ground.

That said, I would like to come up with a good lynch today. If you would like to be part of the process - as the guy who is the closest to being cleared in my mind - I would like the company, no matter how annoyed I am with you for the last couple of days.

[hoopsguy]

I really think it would be easier for me to advocate lynching you rather than working with you if I was a Zombie, Alan. If I was Umbrella, would I have pushed for Lathum on Day 2 when there was an early showdown with you versus Cronin?

At some point, please re-check your assumptions this game. You know now that you were unduly stubborn on Days 2 and 3, to the detriment of your team (if you are STARS).

Also, for what it is worth, I believe that there is a Police Chief in the game even if the voting records are total crap.

[BrianD]

Hoops, if you think Spleen is worth voting for, you should probably vote for him. You can always change your vote later, but if you want to shake something out of him, you have to give him (and his team) reason to fear.

Having said that, I'll do a little of my own pushing and again...

Vote LoneStarGirl

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, based on your distrust list you think I'm more likely to be a Zombie than anyone left in the game. So saying you suspect me more than Spleen isn't exactly new ground.

That said, I would like to come up with a good lynch today. If you would like to be part of the process - as the guy who is the closest to being cleared in my mind - I would like the company, no matter how annoyed I am with you for the last couple of days.

Well I am particpating in the conversation I've given my thoughts on people including in some cases detailed reasons why.

I am going outside with the girls in about 30-40 minutes for an hour or two but will be back on and off after 6 till the rest of the evening.

I don't have a huge problem going after Spleen, I just think your logic earlier of saying that because he voted for Cronin at one point and voted for me at one point that necessarily makes him bad. My reasons for distrusting spleen right now aren't necessarily enough for me to feel ready to come out and vote for him without someone else giving me more reasons to. But he is on my short list of people probably.

One other unrelated note, I found it interesting that a little bit ago you started to accept that I might be good but wanted to wait for others to check in to make sure no one outs me as something bad. Now it seems like its a foregone conclusion for you even without some people having checked in with the opportunity to put out thoughts about me. The distrustful part of my brain makes me feel you knew all along I was not a zombie, and you're just playing it out for the crowd now as it unfolds.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I really think it would be easier for me to advocate lynching you rather than working with you if I was a Zombie, Alan. If I was Umbrella, would I have pushed for Lathum on Day 2 when there was an early showdown with you versus Cronin?

At some point, please re-check your assumptions this game. You know now that you were unduly stubborn on Days 2 and 3, to the detriment of your team (if you are STARS).

Also, for what it is worth, I believe that there is a Police Chief in the game even if the voting records are total crap.

If you were a zombie, why would you want to try to advocate lynching me when I've been doing all of the work for you pushing people in the wrong direction?

From my experience very vocal people are kept around if:

1) They are pushing people the wrong direction.
2) They are dead right about someone who is bad and killing them might be suspicious.
3) They are bad themselves.

I know #3 is not true, #1 obviously was to some extent. I guess only time will tell about #2.

I actually am always rechecking my assumptions though.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I think Dodgerchick is the only person who has not checked in at this point, other than to say she was catching up. I'm positive she is not the Chief and have little reason to believe that Anxiety was Internal Affairs unless it includes missing putting in orders while sick.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, if I was a Zombie I would thank you for your effort so far this game and get you off the chess board before you could redeem yourself. And then ride you mercilessly for a few months about this game.

None of the above are happening as I'm trying to get a STARS win here.

[hoopsguy]

VOTE SPLEEN

[Alan T]

Going out to the park for a bit. Will be back to talk more in a few hours.

Right now I am not sure that you all are going the right approach when looking at UtR folks. I don't really have an issue with looking at spleen or LSG since I dont trust either of them, but right now it looks like everyone was perfectly happy with it being a contest today between Spleen v Lonestargirl and completely ignore the other UtR.

When looking for someone utr, I wouldn't only look at post counts or the run by attacks.. but also other behavioral patterns. If i had to choose which UtR person to go for today, I likely would look at the Fouts, Glengoyne, Sndvls connection moreso than these guys.

The past three days while we've been busy killing off our own team, these three have been content voting for each other and staying out of our way. It makes their voting patterns look better, keeps them out of people's bullseyes.

I would probably right now think about Glengoyne as he has been content to stay out of the lynch votes the last two days and has stayed on the same person the entire time without really pushing anyone else to consider sndvls.

A nice quick run by and throw away vote on the way out the door to obscurity.

[hoopsguy]

Here is what I show for votes as of Post #1470:
(2) LSG - spleen1015 (1400), BrianD (1464)
(2) Spleen - LSG (1448), Hoops (1469)
(1) Hoopsguy - Alan T (1387)

[hoopsguy]

MrW, what are your thoughts on BrianD? You put a vote on him on Day 2. Both of you guys are in the room right now for discussion.

Brian, I'm not sure I understand your analysis on the Infector earlier today. Was it just to highlight the idea that people are escaping without sufficient votes and discussion? Or was there a larger point there that I just missed?

[Mr. Wednesday]

hoops, I cast that vote for him because I didn't feel good about the Alan vs. st.cronin runoff, and I wasn't prepared to argue for my preferred candidate Lathum. I had no idea where he stood, and he had a vote from Fouts, so he was an adequate option.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, it is interesting that spleen and Brian have both aligned on LSG.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

MrW, what are your thoughts on BrianD? You put a vote on him on Day 2. Both of you guys are in the room right now for discussion.

Brian, I'm not sure I understand your analysis on the Infector earlier today. Was it just to highlight the idea that people are escaping without sufficient votes and discussion? Or was there a larger point there that I just missed?

My point was that we were spending so much time on the few vocal people that we were missing any shot of hitting the infector. I believed the infector was hiding UTR and I wanted to show why I thought our current list of characters wasn't going to get us where we wanted to go. I don't know who the infector is, but I thought we were far away from finding him/her.

[Fouts]

Interesting discussion today. I like the idea of getting the UtR people to talk. I think LSG is playing her normal regular villager game, just like last game. I'm not sure about spleen, yet.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Dola, it is interesting that spleen and Brian have both aligned on LSG.

Care to expand on this thought?

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Dola, it is interesting that spleen and Brian have both aligned on LSG.

We have not alligned. I've got Spleen listed at the same suspicion level as LSG. I voted LSG yesterday, so I stayed with her today. I wouldn't mind seeing a run-off between the two in the hopes that a number of UTR people will have to surface.

[hoopsguy]

Has anyone else claimed to be "vanilla STARS" besides Alan, LSG, and Spleen?

[hoopsguy]

FWIW, I have claimed to be STARS but never said a word, one way or the other, about being vanilla.

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

FWIW, I have claimed to be STARS but never said a word, one way or the other, about being vanilla.

I guess it would depend on how many stars we have left. Starting to get hard to believe all those claiming to be STARS.

[hoopsguy]

Obviously it is easier to bluff at a non-role as well, since you are likely to get called down by someone with a role. But with the number of non-specials we have seen die already it does beg the question of how many are left.

[Fouts]

We're down to 12 players. How many would you think are STARS? 6?

The problem might be that the important STARS roles might be claiming regular STARS roles for cover.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Obviously it is easier to bluff at a non-role as well, since you are likely to get called down by someone with a role. But with the number of non-specials we have seen die already it does beg the question of how many are left.

It really depends on how many of the stars roles aren't actually in the game. Thats why I was wondering about that earlier. I did some quick math, and the more I think about this the more i think we underestimated the good guys to start. I think 12 Stars is a safe star, 13 is possible. We have had 5 vanilla stars and 1 roled stars die.

My guess is there are ~6 stars left. possibly 7. Of those, there probably are 2-3 vanilla stars left and 2ish that have roles who would declare they are vanilla stars. Thats why after thinking about it, I didn't push LSG or Spleen any further about them claiming to be Vanilla Stars. Even knowing I am vanilla, there still is arguement room for 2-3 more people who are vanilla or roled stars claiming to be vanilla.

Unvote Hoopsguy
vote Sndvls

I'll try this out for a bit. Deciding to go for one of the utr people, the one who used faulty logic to vote for me (while voting for me wasnt necessarily bad, the logic he used was) and he is involved in that little voting triangle between Sndvls, Glengoyne and Fouts from the past few days.

[hoopsguy]

SnDvls is another guy who has avoided voting for Cronin for the last two days. Alan on Day 2, Glen on Day 3. This is a data point I'm not sure how to evaluate but it has shaped my thinking.

It is also a contributing factor on why I went with Spleen over LSG with my vote at this point.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Care to expand on this thought?

Two votes for LSG, from Brian and spleen. Nothing more than that.

[hoopsguy]

OK, I guess I'm in a mode where I'm hoping someone has new thoughts or is willing to take some leadership in where we should go today. Right now our voting still feels pretty whimsical (mine included).

[Mr. Wednesday]

I don't mind my voting choices today -- actually, I think they're rather interesting -- but I'm a little worried about who I align myself with by voting particular ways. There's Alan, who I think is Umbrella, voting Sndvls. There's hoops, who's still up in the air for me, with LSG on spleen. And there's BrianD and spleen on LSG.

I've got a Halloween shindig to go to right now, and I don't know if I'll be back before the deadline.

VOTE LoneStarGirl

(FWIW, I think hoops is probably OK, but the possible conversion worries me.)

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, I think we're working off of very limited info right now; we've got several lynch votes, but two of them involved villagers (much less revealing, typically, than votes involving baddies) and the other was Umbrella rather than zombies.

[Chief Rum]

As I stated earlier, I like the UTR approach (although I admit I expected to draw more heat myself). The main candidates being discussed right now seem to be spleen, LSG and SnDvls. I have my suspicions about all of them, but this isn't the first time SnDvls has come up on the radar, whereas spleen and LSG have largely stayed clear of suspicion up to now.

So I am going to follow Alan's logic and go with SnDvls. Plus, if he turns up bad, we can explore the Fouts-Glen end of things, since they may be linked to SnDvls and have come under suspicion themselves.

I really find it unlikely we won't find at least one bad guy amongst those three.

[Chief Rum]

Oh yeah...

VOTE SNDVLS

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

As I stated earlier, I like the UTR approach (although I admit I expected to draw more heat myself). The main candidates being discussed right now seem to be spleen, LSG and SnDvls. I have my suspicions about all of them, but this isn't the first time SnDvls has come up on the radar, whereas spleen and LSG have largely stayed clear of suspicion up to now.

So I am going to follow Alan's logic and go with SnDvls. Plus, if he turns up bad, we can explore the Fouts-Glen end of things, since they may be linked to SnDvls and have come under suspicion themselves.

I really find it unlikely we won't find at least one bad guy amongst those three.

Huh? I have been promoting SnDvls as a lynch target for the last 2 days. How does that link me to him?

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by BrianD

Do you think you two fought long enough before coming to the decision that you are both STARS and should be looking at someone else? You guys might have wanted to sell this fight a little bit longer.

Catching up.

I like this post

[hoopsguy]

I find it very unlikely that Fouts and Glen are on the same faction. People who can PM each other will attempt to avoid being linked to each other with votes. Both Fouts and Glen have voted for SnDvls the last two days.

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I find it very unlikely that Fouts and Glen are on the same faction. People who can PM each other will attempt to avoid being linked to each other with votes. Both Fouts and Glen have voted for SnDvls the last two days.

Ok, then. What faction are we? Would you put all 3 of us on different factions?

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, I don't know what faction any of you are in. But the only faction that would make sense for you to both be in would be STARS and I'm having a tough time believing that.

Best case is that neither of you guys are Zombies and have been voting for a Zombie the last two days.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

Spleen if i highlighted all the dumbass stuff you said I'd be here all day. But I choose not to dwell on stuff that is insignificant to the game. It seems you are trying to take attention off yourself.

Unvote SNDVLS

Vote Spleen1015

The only dumbass thing you've done is assume I was voting because you are woman. If that were the case, I would have been voting for you every single day of every single game I've played with you.

It was a really dumb thing to say. If you have a problem with me saying that, then make smarter decisions.

I'm done now. The funny thing about it all is everyone thinks this a going to tell them something and it's not going to tell them jack shit because our argument has nothing to do with the game, really just poor assumptions.

UNVOTE LoneStarGirl
VOTE SnDvls

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Fouts

Huh? I have been promoting SnDvls as a lynch target for the last 2 days. How does that link me to him?

I went off of what Alan wrote about that, linking you three. I was going to go back to review what he felt the connection was, but haven't done so yet. I was more suspicious of SnDvls than either of you, and he has been UTR, which is why he got the vote.

If Alan can put up a synopsis for why he sees a connection there, it would save me some time, but if he doesn't I will just be looking into it at my own pace.

BTW, if you have been promoting SnDvls as a lynch target for two days, why is it just Alan and myself on him in the current votes?

[hoopsguy]

Following the "identical votes" concept, Chief has voted for the same candidates I have all three days. Each of these (Bullet/Lathum/Cronin) has been the person who has been lynched.

I'm not sure what to make of this, compared to the Glen/Fouts, because SnDvls was a minority candidate in each case. Also, Chief has been putting his votes in near the deadline on all three nights. Two of them were done deals, with the only questionable one being around Lathum.

Drilling into the Chief vote, he did vote for Cronin (STARS) initially to create a tie before moving away from it to vote for Lathum (Umbrella) after being warned about vote reprecussions for creating a tie (by Alan). Is that enough to suspect Chief as Umbrella? I'm not sure how interesting that question is if we are hunting Zombies. If Rum was Zombie he didn't give a damn about the vote between an Umbrella/STARS.

[Alan T]

Ok, everyone needs to stop the whole I'm just going with Alan says thing. Its a cop-out regardless if you are good or bad. If something i say triggers a likely scenerio that makes sense, then go back and look it up yourself to see if you agree or not.

If you vote for sndvls its because its something you believe, not because Alan said so

To answer why i grouped the three was just because the last 2 days, the three have consistantly been in a group voting pattern avoiding all of the other lynch votes, which sometimes is a ploy that is used to make your voting look better and not draw suspicion.

Day2 Sndvls voted me, Glen and Fouts voted Sndvls
Day3 Sndvls voted Glen, Glen and Fouts voted Sndvls.

I was leaning to voting Glen and changed my mind going with Sndvls instead. I really could have gone either way, but this triangle voting pattern was more interesting to me than the current LSG vs Spleen debate.