Is gulf oil spill unstoppable?

[Airhog]

Is the BP Gusher Unstoppable? | Mother Jones


The logic here makes sense, and sounds good, but I am far from being knowledgeable about drilling. It is definitely a scary thought if this is the case

[flere-imsaho]

Certainly possible. After all, there's a ridiculous amount of pressure from the oil. There also remains the possibility (that no one seems to mention) that both of the relief wells could also fail.

[Glengoyne]

There seems to be a bit more conspiracy theory in there than I think is necessary.

Do I think that BP cut the riser off to release pressure below the BOP? No. I think they did it to allow for a capture of the oil. Any oil they collect is oil they don't have to clean up. Plus it is good for PR.

Do I think that the erosion discussed in the thread contributed to them cutting off the riser? It may have contributed, but if it were a prevalent reason, BP and the Govt would have called out the concern. Hiding major concerns like this would only hurt credibility in the long run, and I don't think Obama would risk that.

Definitely a scary possibility, but I'm wondering just how probable an outcome this is given the universe of possibilities.

[Airhog]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Certainly possible. After all, there's a ridiculous amount of pressure from the oil. There also remains the possibility (that no one seems to mention) that both of the relief wells could also fail.

I think that was mentioned in the post, that there is only a 30%? chance of the drilling being successful. The poster questions if only drilling 2 wells is good enough

[molson]

It's all just so depressing. Just wait until the next hurricane blows through the Gulf.

One of the posters in that link did the calculations that if the spill can't be stopped, oil will spill into the gulf for about 36 years. That may be overly pessimistic, but imagine just a few years, and the normal hurricane cycles.

We should get the UK as compensation. It's not full value for what we're going to lose, but it's a start.

[flere-imsaho]

I think getting the UK in compensation might be considered a net loss, though.

Edit: /runs from Marc

[stevew]

If we get the UK, I'm going to go into dentistry. Big bucks to be had.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by molson

It's all just so depressing. Just wait until the next hurricane blows through the Gulf.

One of the posters in that link did the calculations that if the spill can't be stopped, oil will spill into the gulf for about 36 years. That may be overly pessimistic, but imagine just a few years, and the normal hurricane cycles.

We should get the UK as compensation. It's not full value for what we're going to lose, but it's a start.

I saw an article (have to find it again) that said a hurricane would actually help the dispersant work better. The theory is that the dispersant works like dishwashing soap. If you just put some in the water, it doesn't do much. But if you agitate the water, it works a lot better. But the flip side is that the hurricane would also spread the dispersed oil mixture over a much larger area.

[Dutch]

36 years of this and the entire coast will look like Biloxi. Yuck.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by cartman

I saw an article (have to find it again) that said a hurricane would actually help the dispersant work better. The theory is that the dispersant works like dishwashing soap. If you just put some in the water, it doesn't do much. But if you agitate the water, it works a lot better. But the flip side is that the hurricane would also spread the dispersed oil mixture over a much larger area.

I've heard that as well. The problem is would it damage the work on the relief wells and the rest of the pipeline?

[flere-imsaho]

Drilling would be postponed during a hurricane, but there are ways to secure the equipment safely. Thousands of oil rigs survive storms each year.

[molson]

Originally Posted by cartman

I saw an article (have to find it again) that said a hurricane would actually help the dispersant work better. The theory is that the dispersant works like dishwashing soap. If you just put some in the water, it doesn't do much. But if you agitate the water, it works a lot better. But the flip side is that the hurricane would also spread the dispersed oil mixture over a much larger area.

But doesn't the dispersant bring its own environmental concerns? Especially if spread all over the Gulf?

[Doug5984]

The worst thing about a hurricane is the tidal surge- the oil that is near the coast and in the marsh would then be pushed up miles and miles inland in marshes that may have been clean.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Doug5984

The worst thing about a hurricane is the tidal surge- the oil that is near the coast and in the marsh would then be pushed up miles and miles inland in marshes that may have been clean.

Yeah- all the boom in the world (which has already has its effectiveness called into question because they aren't maintaining it) won't matter when it's swept up in a 20' wall of water and deposited on marshes.

SI

[Doug5984]

Growing up I used to duck hunt in spend a lot of weekends fishing and crabbing down in Pecan Island- our camp down there was a pretty nice trailer and a bunk house attached- when Lilly hit back in '02 it disappeared now it was in the marsh- probably a mile or so from the gulf, the storm surge was so great that it all we had left was the slab- imagine a storm surge like that full of oil. It's going to carry it miles and miles and miles inland, dump it all in the lakes and waterways... Makes me cringe just thinking about it.

Louisiana might get lucky and not take a direct hit- but someone will, and it's going to be ugly.

[sterlingice]

Yeah- when was the last Gulf hurricane season that didn't result in a pretty big hit somewhere. I mean, I guess we could get "lucky" and it'd hit south Texas or Mexico and miss most of the oil.

SI

[thesloppy]

So, I know they've failed using a lot of other materials, but have they tried using a huge mass of seabirds to soak up the oil yet? Because that seems to work pretty good.

[sterlingice]

Turtles, fish, and marshy wetlands, too- they're great!

SI

[cartman]

Here's a post I found that does a good job of explaining in layman's terms why the worst case scenario isn't all that unlikely.

The Oil Drum | Deepwater Oil Spill - A Longer Term Problem, Personnel - and Open Thread 2

[Warhammer]

I'm not so sure I trust that site. They certainly had some good info, but the whole mission of that group is to get people away from oil. A group with that agenda is going to paint this as worst case scenario.

A relief well can fix the situation, the question is where do you attempt to intersect the well? If you can divide the flow, that reduces the pressure, then you can try the top kill again to fill and cap the well. The problem, is that it takes time to do.

Their worst case scenario might actually be a blessing, if the well collapses, that may wind up sealing everything up.

[whomario]

this is so fucked up ... Still remember when it was supposedly a matter of days and they had everything under controll. Yeah right ...

[molson]

Let's not forget some of that BP CEO goofball's quotes last month:

"The Gulf of Mexico is a very big ocean. The amount of volume of oil and dispersant we are putting into it is tiny in relation to the total water volume."

BP Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward said that the environmental impact of the spill will probably be “very, very modest.” In an interview with Sky News yesterday, he said that the company had “made a lot of progress” and that the cooperation between BP and government authorities will be seen as a “textbook example” for how to respond to accidents.

[AlexB]

Look, they've tried putting golfballs, tyres and human hair to plug the leak - what exactly makes you worried that they're running out of ideas?

[dwardzala]

Chuck Norris could stop the leak - he'd just look at it and all the oil would go back into the earth.

Seriously, the only way this leak gets stopped is when the relief wells are drilled and the oil is sufficiently diverted to them so they can cap the main well. Everything else is just activity for activity's sake.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by cartman

Here's a post I found that does a good job of explaining in layman's terms why the worst case scenario isn't all that unlikely.

The Oil Drum | Deepwater Oil Spill - A Longer Term Problem, Personnel - and Open Thread 2

This is equal parts depressing and horrifying... without trying to kick off the debate about whether govt. regulation works or not, this really hits home that something has to be done to make sure this never happens again.

[JPhillips]

I'm sure the specifics are difficult to work out, but the general idea that no hole gets opened that can't be closed seems a no-brainer.

[bhlloy]

I have no idea of how much in millions/billions it costs to sink a well, but in theory couldn't you say nothing without at least a working relief well in position first? It's not like we're talking about an industry with a small profit margin here...

[Shkspr]

Originally Posted by molson

In an interview with Sky News yesterday, he said that the company had “made a lot of progress” and that the cooperation between BP and government authorities will be seen as a “textbook example” for how to respond to accidents.

Fow what it's worth, I do indeed think the company will be found in textbooks. It'll be in the same chapter as Chernobyl and Bhopal.

[sterlingice]

I just saw in the last month that a bunch of Bhopal executives were just sentenced to 2 years in jail concerning the Bhobpal disaster (which was 25 years ago)

SI

[M GO BLUE!!!]

Originally Posted by Jari Rantanen's Shorts

Look, they've tried putting golfballs, tyres and human hair to plug the leak - what exactly makes you worried that they're running out of ideas?

Comment of the day!

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I have no idea of how much in millions/billions it costs to sink a well, but in theory couldn't you say nothing without at least a working relief well in position first? It's not like we're talking about an industry with a small profit margin here...

This is something. If not a relief well, a truly redundant system that is more reliable than the BOP, which fails 25% of the time.

This may be close to rocket science, but they aren't coming close to managing this process with a safety first mentality. They didn't put as much thought into their disaster recovery plan as most small/midsized businesses.

[thesloppy]

I just think it's comforting to know we have so much oil. I was worried that we were going to run out, but now that I see how much we have...

[cartman]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

I just think it's comforting to know we have so much oil. I was worried that we were going to run out, but now that I see how much we have...

The BP leak is currently estimated at 35-60 thousand barrels per day. The US average consumption is 20 million barrels per day!

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

It's not like we're talking about an industry with a small profit margin here...

The oil industry?

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

The oil industry?

Yeah,. At least big companies like BP, aren't they turning in multi-billion dollar profits most years?

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Yeah,. At least big companies like BP, aren't they turning in multi-billion dollar profits most years?

Profits? Sure. Profit margins? They are small.

[bhlloy]

Maybe they should stop giving their CEO 40% bonuses then. Just a thought.

[sabotai]

BP Profit Margin: BP Profit Margin (BP)

(Or at least, that's what google gave me - I've never used ycharts so don't know how accurate it is)

[Greyroofoo]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Maybe they should stop giving their CEO 40% bonuses then. Just a thought.

Why?

[bhlloy]

If they don't have big profit margin? I'm not the one making that argument but if you don't have big profit margins, wouldn't giving your CEO that large a bonus be counterintuitive?

BTW the 40% is not a total bonus, it's the increase in overall compensation from year to year. My bad.

[CrimsonFox]

I don't believe any spin BS any corporationg says about anything involving money or the environment. Typically "No danger" means HOLY SHIT RUN AWAY! "It's good for the planet" means, "it'll make me rich"

[Warhammer]

The reason you can't drill a relief well with a standard well is for the reason why they mention in the article. You need to know where the relief well needs to intersect the bad well. Too high and your're not really fixing much. Too deep and it can cause other issues.

[MrDNA]

Originally Posted by molson

But doesn't the dispersant bring its own environmental concerns? Especially if spread all over the Gulf?

Don't worry, there are more powerful chemicals we can use later to get rid of the dispersant.

[sterlingice]

Skinner: Well, I was wrong. The lizards are a godsend.
Lisa: But isn't that a bit short-sighted? What happens when we're overrun by lizards?
Skinner: No problem. We simply release wave after wave of Chinese needle snakes. They'll wipe out the lizards.
Lisa: But aren't the snakes even worse?
Skinner: Yes, but we're prepared for that. We've lined up a fabulous type of gorilla that thrives on snake meat.
Lisa: But then we're stuck with gorillas!
Skinner: No, that's the beautiful part. When wintertime rolls around, the gorillas simply freeze to death.



SI

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Profits? Sure. Profit margins? They are small.

[stevew]

BP allegedly put a cap on dat ass. I'm not an expert but I'm extremely skeptical that they can equilize the pressure. And if the solution was as simple as placing a cap, why did it take 90 days. If the answer is that a cap had to be prepared...new rule going forward...You need to have a cap that can be mobilized to site within 7 days. I know each spill is gonna be different but we've done some very costly testing here.

[JediKooter]

So that's why they stopped the drilling of the relief wells?

[JediKooter]

Oh and I am a bit skeptical as well. After all this is from the same company:

In the 77 days since oil from the ruptured Deepwater Horizon began to gush into the Gulf of Mexico, BP has skimmed or burned about 60 percent of the amount it promised regulators it could remove in a single day.

[JPhillips]

Good news if it can hold the pressure.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Skinner: Well, I was wrong. The lizards are a godsend.
Lisa: But isn't that a bit short-sighted? What happens when we're overrun by lizards?
Skinner: No problem. We simply release wave after wave of Chinese needle snakes. They'll wipe out the lizards.
Lisa: But aren't the snakes even worse?
Skinner: Yes, but we're prepared for that. We've lined up a fabulous type of gorilla that thrives on snake meat.
Lisa: But then we're stuck with gorillas!
Skinner: No, that's the beautiful part. When wintertime rolls around, the gorillas simply freeze to death.





SI

This is funny despite the seriousness of this fuck-up by BP.