Werewolf XXXI: House of Frankenstein (Game Over) - Page 36

Lorena · 08-21-2006, 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

if he is actually a wolf/reiman then yes he benefits by telling us a lie to try to put us onto a false path...BUT he has to balance that with the knowledge that we may "turn" on him and lynch him, resulting in his death...AND the fact that he either knows molson is guilty and is trying to throw suspiscion off of him...OR knows that Gram is good and if we believe in his seer role than we lose the game.

just laying that all out there...

I totally agree with the bolded part. I think his role reveal is a plot to get us off of the molson trail. I think he's banking that some people vote for molson and maybe 1 towards him, but that the majority of the votes go towards Gramm.

I see it as a last minute tactic to save molson.

tanglewood · 08-21-2006, 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Daddy: Tangle's reveal is meant to save EITHER sndvls or molson, if tangle is indeed bad. I don't think we can rule out either possibility.

Well, I have no real read on SnDvls at all, and as mentioned I am quite suspicious of Molson myself. I have actually voted for both SnDvls (Day 2) and Molson (Day 5, yesterday) in this game too for what it's worth. My reveal is certainly no vindication on their behalf.

As for the Reimann, well I guess that's a possibility, I can't say that if I was on the other side I wouldn't suspect it myself. But if I were Reimann, I wouldn't have tried anything as bold as a fake reveal when there are still 10 players in the game. The odds are still most probably 70/30 we lynch a villager today, not even accounting for the informed votes of the wolves and Reimann. Surely the more sensible play would be to stay in the background and continue manipulation. Even if we do hit on a wolf today, I'd say the bad guys are still the favourites to win, so why risk it?

tanglewood · 08-21-2006, 04:56 PM

dola

Also if I am lying why not come out and say Grammaticus is 100% a wolf? It would be pretty weak to fake-reveal that someone is maybe a wolf, at least from where I'm standing.

tanglewood · 08-21-2006, 04:57 PM

double dola

And I really don't get why people are saying I'm saving Molson.

1) He isn't even in the lead at this point.

2) I VOTE FOR HIM YESTERDAY TO PUT HIM IN A TIE FOR THE LEAD. He was in second place, I vote and potentially place him in a tie, so he could have been potentially lynched by the Masons if things stayed as they were. As it happened of course Grammaticus SWITCHED HIS VOTE KILLED A VILLAGER.

DaddyTorgo · 08-21-2006, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanglewood

Well, I have no real read on SnDvls at all, and as mentioned I am quite suspicious of Molson myself. I have actually voted for both SnDvls (Day 2) and Molson (Day 5, yesterday) in this game too for what it's worth. My reveal is certainly no vindication on their behalf.

As for the Reimann, well I guess that's a possibility, I can't say that if I was on the other side I wouldn't suspect it myself. But if I were Reimann, I wouldn't have tried anything as bold as a fake reveal when there are still 10 players in the game. The odds are still most probably 70/30 we lynch a villager today, not even accounting for the informed votes of the wolves and Reimann. Surely the more sensible play would be to stay in the background and continue manipulation. Even if we do hit on a wolf today, I'd say the bad guys are still the favourites to win, so why risk it?

true. and with Barkeep's math (posted earlier) voting for Gram, even if it's a setup, may be the best option. If Gram turns up good then we have just lost 2 players but are still up 5-3 and then know that tangle is bad and lynch him and end up 4-2 at the end of that day (presuming tangle is a wolf and the wolves don't kill reiman...although I may have messed up that little bit of math, the 4-2 is worst case).

If Gram ends up bad then we know tangle was telling the truth, and even with his role-reveal and subsequent presumed death we end up bettering our odds and end up ahead 6-2, with all of our masons still in play.

DaddyTorgo · 08-21-2006, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanglewood

double dola

2) I VOTE FOR HIM YESTERDAY TO PUT HIM IN A TIE FOR THE LEAD. He was in second place, I vote and potentially place him in a tie, so he could have been potentially lynched by the Masons if things stayed as they were. As it happened of course Grammaticus SWITCHED HIS VOTE KILLED A VILLAGER.

now that's a great point that bears repeating again and again

Barkeep49 · 08-21-2006, 05:16 PM

I'm finding it hard to believe Tangle is good. I would rather LYNCH tangle first and then go from there. I mean if Tangle IS a good guy he was going to die tonight anyway. The games Tangle could play as Dr. R are great. Being Dr. R acts the same as being a seer, in essence and I simply do not think there are secret roles in this game. Therefore someone claiming to have a secret role? Likely bad. And in this case there is a way to reconcile what Tangle is telling us with what we do know, as fact.

Therefore, I

Unvote Grammaticus
Vote Tanglewood

I would normally not do this, but with my coming up with a plausible scenario for how a fake reveal by Tangle wins the game, in essence, I think we should lynch first ask questions later.

The most important part of this banks on the idea that there are NO SECRET ROLES. Either side would likely have found one by now if there was one. So if you believe there are no secret roles, as I do, then Tangle is Dr. R and should be disposed of before we go on our way. And if I'm wrong? Well then we lynch Grammaticus tomorrow in a landslide vote and are in good shape at 5-2.

DaddyTorgo · 08-21-2006, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I'm finding it hard to believe Tangle is good. I would rather LYNCH tangle first and then go from there. I mean if Tangle IS a good guy he was going to die tonight anyway. The games Tangle could play as Dr. R are great. Being Dr. R acts the same as being a seer, in essence and I simply do not think there are secret roles in this game. Therefore someone claiming to have a secret role? Likely bad. And in this case there is a way to reconcile what Tangle is telling us with what we do know, as fact.

Therefore, I

Unvote Grammaticus
Vote Tanglewood

I would normally not do this, but with my coming up with a plausible scenario for how a fake reveal by Tangle wins the game, in essence, I think we should lynch first ask questions later.

The most important part of this banks on the idea that there are NO SECRET ROLES. Either side would likely have found one by now if there was one. So if you believe there are no secret roles, as I do, then Tangle is Dr. R and should be disposed of before we go on our way. And if I'm wrong? Well then we lynch Grammaticus tomorrow in a landslide vote and are in good shape at 5-2.

I agree with this line of reasoning, particularly the probability of us finding secret roles if any existed already. I'd like to think I contributed to your figuring this out at least a lil Barkeep.

VOTE TANGLEWOOD

Barkeep49 · 08-21-2006, 05:21 PM

Just to follow up on the last post:

I think we need to stop looking at molson and sndvls for today. By the very nature of the situation either Tangle or Grammaticus has to be bad. Our votes should be cast as such. I have gone with Tangle, but could understand (though not support right now) those going with Grammaticus. But let's focus our votes there. The other two people in the mix simply mean it's more likely that a bad guy can slip through the net.

molson · 08-21-2006, 05:22 PM

What a turn of events. I'm pretty much a believer in the tanglewood reveal at the moment because 1 - I know Gram's completely wrong about me, and 2 -. I've been saying/thinking for a while that the game seemed unbalanced with the one-sided roles. I'll have to take a closer look at everything after work.

I haven't seen Sndvls back since his self-vote - hopefully that's not the deciding vote.

Lorena · 08-21-2006, 05:23 PM

I'm a little confused on the Dr. Reiman role. Is Dr. Reiman evil? First page says it counts as a "human" victory.

molson · 08-21-2006, 05:24 PM

And Gram's ridiculous for point out my switched votes. His raw list of switched votes is extremely misleading. I switched to noddadrop day 1 - so what. I switched day 2 in a vote that had no impact. Meanwhile, Gram's late voting has directly killed two villagers.

molson · 08-21-2006, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

I'm a little confused on the Dr. Reiman role. Is Dr. Reiman evil? First page says it counts as a "human" victory.

You're right on both counts. He's evil, trying to help the wolves, and if the wolves win he wins. But he also happens to count as a human.

Hmmm, that would explain the sndvls self-vote, would'nt it?

Barkeep49 · 08-21-2006, 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

I'm a little confused on the Dr. Reiman role. Is Dr. Reiman evil? First page says it counts as a "human" victory.

Dr. R wins if he's alive when the wolves win the game. However, for purposes of determining how many wolves/villagers there are he counts as a villager. Therefore he is ON the bad guys side, BUT counts for the good guys.

molson · 08-21-2006, 05:28 PM

Is it too obvious now that Sundvls is Dr. R? Wouldn't it be in Dr. Rs interest to get himself killed at this point? Sorry if this has been pointed out.

Don't vote Sundvls! Vote Gram!

DaddyTorgo · 08-21-2006, 05:28 PM

if your math is correct barkeep, then everyone good ought to vote Tangle today. It really gives us the best chance of coming out of the situation with the most knowledge and potential kills. because if tangle is good and we err in killing him...the wolves would have got him anyways and they still have the chance of hitting Dr. R anyways in the night action and we know the following day that we have a guarenteed kill in gram.

but if tangle is bad then we've eliminated him and the wolves will likely take out gram anyways since he will be fairly clearly trusted by virtue of being implicated by tangle.

DaddyTorgo · 08-21-2006, 05:29 PM

dola

and in the second case, if the wolves elect to leave gram they could still hit reiman

molson · 08-21-2006, 05:30 PM

But, if Tangle is Dr. R, faking a seerer role would be a pretty good way to have the wolves lynch you - which would help their side.

Barkeep49 · 08-21-2006, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson

But, if Tangle is Dr. R, faking a seerer role would be a pretty good way to have the wolves lynch you - which would help their side.

I'm confused with what you're saying here.

Daddy: While we don't know the exact number of bad guys we can pretty much assume it is correct. I too feel my math is right and as such feel that voting tangle is not only the correct move in terms of the evidence we have, but in terms of the math.

DaddyTorgo · 08-21-2006, 05:32 PM

so either we kill tangle or the wolves kill tangle. seems like it's immaterial at this point. and if we avoid voting for gram we at least hold out the possibility that gram stays alive if he is a mason.

tanglewood · 08-21-2006, 05:32 PM

Well I'm dissapointed in you Barkeep, I know you're a good guy you need to make the right decision.

Which way of finding out helps the bad guys more? If we lynch Grammaticus first then we get a bad guy today, a potential wolf today. We cannot rule out the possibility that there are actually 4 wolves and not three as we have been presuming. If that is the case, then we will lose if we lynch a good guy today. Heck, even if you want to assume that I am a bad guy think logically man. There is no way I am a wolf, it just doesn't make sense for a wolf to try a fake reveal at this point, it's way too risky. So, even if I am Dr. Reimann, we are still lynching a human today, which could lose the game for us. On the other hand, if I am telling the truth and you lynch me first, we could lose, even if my lynch proved Gramm is a bad guy. It could be too late. It just doesn't make sense. But then I guess it never seems to make sense when you know you are right and see people you know who are good making the wrong decision.

It's simple:

1. Grammaticus is a bad guy. You don't even need my reveal to tell you that. He was odd the first few days, then as he got heat dropped back and let Blade/Lathum take over. He has regullary switched votes. Yesterday, when two major suspects, Molson and SnDvls, were tied and could be potentially lynched by the Masons, he switches his vote right at the deadline and takes out a villager. The guy is already guilty! Then the seer comes out and says he scaneed him die to above suspocious behaviour and confirms him as bad. How much more clear could it be?

2. Even if you for some reason doubt this, lynching me first makes no sense for the village. EVEN IF I AM LYING I AM A HUMAN. LYNCHING ME IS BAD REGARDLESS. IF WE LYNCH GRAMM FIRST WE GET A BAD GUY AND PROBABLY A WOLF (3/4 or 4/5 chance). IF YOU LYNCH ME WE MIGHT LOSE.

For god sake. I don't know why I am even having to go into such a silly hypothetical. Gramm is a bad guy!!!!

Barkeep49 · 08-21-2006, 05:34 PM

Lots of people have been disappointed with me this game tangle. I suppose I could win "most disappointing player".

Barkeep49 · 08-21-2006, 05:35 PM

Tangle: You're suggesting that there were FOUR wolves plus Dracula plus Dr. 4? So 5 out of 22 starting bad guys? Just making sure this is the theory you're advancing.

Barkeep49 · 08-21-2006, 05:36 PM

Dola -- I meant to say 6 out of 22 starting bad guys or just under 1/3 of the players started as an evil role.

molson · 08-21-2006, 05:37 PM

[quote=Barkeep49]I'm confused with what you're saying here.

[quote]

Dr. R. wants to die at this point, correct? He has no powers left, and his death greatly help his team.

Two players have been engaged in self-destructive behavior yesterday or today. Sndvls with the self-vote (and the attitude), and tanglewood, with the seer revelation.

I'm not convined of either, but I'm just throwing it out there.

Lorena · 08-21-2006, 05:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanglewood

2. Even if you for some reason doubt this, lynching me first makes no sense for the village. EVEN IF I AM LYING I AM A HUMAN. LYNCHING ME IS BAD REGARDLESS. IF WE LYNCH GRAMM FIRST WE GET A BAD GUY AND PROBABLY A WOLF (3/4 or 4/5 chance). IF YOU LYNCH ME WE MIGHT LOSE.

For god sake. I don't know why I am even having to go into such a silly hypothetical. Gramm is a bad guy!!!!

This screams "I'm Dr. Reiman".

Goddamit, I'm so confused.

Lorena · 08-21-2006, 05:39 PM

darn, hit the submit button too quickly.

So do we wanna eliminate Dr. Reiman? He does count as a human victory.

DaddyTorgo · 08-21-2006, 05:39 PM

[quote=molson][quote=Barkeep49]I'm confused with what you're saying here.

Quote:

Dr. R. wants to die at this point, correct? He has no powers left, and his death greatly help his team.

Two players have been engaged in self-destructive behavior yesterday or today. Sndvls with the self-vote (and the attitude), and tanglewood, with the seer revelation.

I'm not convined of either, but I'm just throwing it out there.

so you're saying vote for you molson? cuz you were the other early choice...that screams of self-destruction too

tanglewood · 08-21-2006, 05:40 PM

All I'm saying is that it's a real possibility. Remember, Reimann counts for us in the final tally, so really when it comes to the endgame it is 5/22. And even so, 6/22 is not out of line with some ratios in other games we've played before. Sure, it's just speculation, but I think we could lose the game today.

Infact, even if we don't lose the game today, isn't lynching me still killing a guarenteed human when we are at the most two chances from losing? Isn't that just a bad idea? I'd claim you were all evil kniving wolves voting for me, but it's clear at least one of you is a misguided good guy.

Heck, if you want to put it up to a tie and let the masons decide between me and Gramm. At least that way we have some chance of hitting a wolf today.

Barkeep49 · 08-21-2006, 05:41 PM

[quote=molson][quote=Barkeep49]I'm confused with what you're saying here.

Quote:

Dr. R. wants to die at this point, correct? He has no powers left, and his death greatly help his team.

Two players have been engaged in self-destructive behavior yesterday or today. Sndvls with the self-vote (and the attitude), and tanglewood, with the seer revelation.

I'm not convined of either, but I'm just throwing it out there.

Right. I think tangle is Dr. R and it behoves us to remove him from our midst. The other possiblity is that I'm flat out wrong and he is our seer. In which case we lynch Grammaticus and go from there. But if we lynch Grammaticus first and tangle turns out to be Dr. R? Game over folks.

So molson do you believe in secret roles or not? I think there's a lot of reason to think not and so would encourage you to vote for Tangle.

molson · 08-21-2006, 05:41 PM

[quote=DaddyTorgo][quote=molson]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I'm confused with what you're saying here.

so you're saying vote for you molson? cuz you were the other early choice...that screams of self-destruction too

Well, the other choice for me is obviously Gram, but I have the advantage of knowing my role. But I see your point.

tanglewood · 08-21-2006, 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

This screams "I'm Dr. Reiman".

Goddamit, I'm so confused.

Well what else can I say? That Gramm is a bad guy is staring you all square in the face, yet you are all trying to kill me for some reason.

Barkeep49 · 08-21-2006, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

darn, hit the submit button too quickly.

So do we wanna eliminate Dr. Reiman? He does count as a human victory.

Yes but he can mislead and decieve us and help vote with the wolves since Dr. R can scan and find out who they are. So even though he counts for our side he can actively do things to twart us. I'd rather have the knowledge that Dr. R is dead then alive and able to twart us, if only by voting in a way that protects the wolves.

Grammaticus · 08-21-2006, 05:43 PM

Look at the day two vote. There is a reason that I won the tie and that I wanted the villagers to keep it on a tie at the end of the day.

In these games, I have seen tie's decided in two ways. Either someone gets to change the vote via a Duke like role and you know the vote was moved. Or the tie breakers cause a break based on who they voted for. In the day two vote, those who voted for "Chubby" won the vote.

Look at the day 5 vote. I know a tie was bad so I moved the vote. If it had stayed a tie as the votes were laid out, No lynch would have occurred. I did not feel good about lynching SnDvls, because I felt uncertain. I knew if I moved to Molson, Tangle and Molson would counter and SnDvls would get lynched. So I moved to Farrah as my only other option and I felt she could have been a wolf.

tanglewood · 08-21-2006, 05:44 PM

[quote=Barkeep49][quote=molson]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I'm confused with what you're saying here.

Right. I think tangle is Dr. R and it behoves us to remove him from our midst. The other possiblity is that I'm flat out wrong and he is our seer. In which case we lynch Grammaticus and go from there. But if we lynch Grammaticus first and tangle turns out to be Dr. R? Game over folks.

So molson do you believe in secret roles or not? I think there's a lot of reason to think not and so would encourage you to vote for Tangle.

But if I am Dr. R why am I wanting you all to not lynch me? Why am I complaining so much when you are all voting for me?!?!?!? Arrrghh!!! Why can't you people use logic!

Barkeep49 · 08-21-2006, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanglewood

Well what else can I say? That Gramm is a bad guy is staring you all square in the face, yet you are all trying to kill me for some reason.

It's a risk/reward thing. Same reason I argued for killing Blade. I am nothing if not consistent. The downside, I believe, to killing you, is greater than the upside to killing Grammaticus since if you're telling the truth and Grammaticus is bad, you die via wolf kill tonight anyway.

Lorena · 08-21-2006, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanglewood

Well what else can I say? That Gramm is a bad guy is staring you all square in the face, yet you are all trying to kill me for some reason.

If you're Dr. Reiman, I'm not sure I'd want to get rid of you. You said you're a seer, isn't Dr. R's role somewhat of an evil seer?

Barkeep49 · 08-21-2006, 05:45 PM

[quote=tanglewood][quote=Barkeep49]

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson

But if I am Dr. R why am I wanting you all to not lynch me? Why am I complaining so much when you are all voting for me?!?!?!? Arrrghh!!! Why can't you people use logic!

I am using logic.

As Dr. R you want to be alive to use your vote to help the wolves. I am not suggesting that you have a suicide wish.

Grammaticus · 08-21-2006, 05:46 PM

It is the best route to vote Molson. Tangle came out with his fake role reveal only after I suggested a Molson vote and backed it up with analysis.

Molson is their fear point right now. Tangle is likely Dr. Raimen and should be saved for later.

DaddyTorgo · 08-21-2006, 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

It's a risk/reward thing. Same reason I argued for killing Blade. I am nothing if not consistent. The downside, I believe, to killing you, is greater than the upside to killing Grammaticus since if you're telling the truth and Grammaticus is bad, you die via wolf kill tonight anyway.

and if he's lying and a wolf then he's dead...and if he's lying and dr. r then he's dead and maybe the wolves kill someone like me or dodgerchick instead of Gram/barkeep, who may be more useful.

Grammaticus · 08-21-2006, 05:47 PM

[quote=tanglewood][quote=Barkeep49]

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson

But if I am Dr. R why am I wanting you all to not lynch me? Why am I complaining so much when you are all voting for me?!?!?!? Arrrghh!!! Why can't you people use logic!

Because you are trying to trick people into thinking you are some kind of hidden seer role. Your trying to play the part. You are a bad guy. Most likely Dr. Raimen.

DaddyTorgo · 08-21-2006, 05:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

It is the best route to vote Molson. Tangle came out with his fake role reveal only after I suggested a Molson vote and backed it up with analysis.

Molson is their fear point right now. Tangle is likely Dr. Raimen and should be saved for later.

why save for tomorrow what you can do tonight? if we axe tangle and he's reiman we can still go after molson tomorrow based on this, without letting raimen scan anymore of us...and i don't think we're that close to the end that the wolf/human ratio matters that much

Grammaticus · 08-21-2006, 05:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

why save for tomorrow what you can do tonight? if we axe tangle and he's reiman we can still go after molson tomorrow based on this, without letting raimen scan anymore of us...and i don't think we're that close to the end that the wolf/human ratio matters that much

Because the evil team gains one vote on us, since Raimen counts as a human for the human/wolf ratio. They make us lynch him instead of a wolf. That means a human dies, then another human gets lynched and they we finally lylnch molson and are probably in a lynch or lose situation for every vote from there. Meaning we have to hit a wolf each time to stay ahead in the ratio. Just depends on how many wolves there are.

tanglewood · 08-21-2006, 05:52 PM

Well, so everything today has turned out to be pretty shit. Let's spell it out again...

1) I am the Seer: Should we lynch me? NO.
2) I am Dr. Reimann: Should we lynch me? NO.

I am not trying to scaremonger regarding the whole there might be 4 wolves thing either, I am genuinly fearful of it.

I mean come on. Seriously.

tanglewood · 08-21-2006, 05:53 PM

The whole fact that I'm having to argue that I might be evil in order to kill someone who is evil is absurd. Werewolf is a game invented by Dadists.

DaddyTorgo · 08-21-2006, 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanglewood

The whole fact that I'm having to argue that I might be evil in order to kill someone who is evil is absurd. Werewolf is a game invented by Dadists.

ROFLOLAPIMP

Lorena · 08-21-2006, 05:55 PM

It seems Sndvls in the lead with 3 votes, counting his own of course. I think we should keep tanglewood, for now as I have a strong suspicion he is Dr. Reiman.

Vote molson

Grammaticus · 08-21-2006, 06:04 PM

Day two vote recap:

Chubby: Blade, BulletS, Dodgerschick, Grammaticus
Gramm: GoldenEagles, Fouts, Swaggs, AlanT

Chubby wins the lynch vote and Grammaticus wins the tie surviving. Why do you think that happened? Blade, GE, Fouts and AlanT are all dead.

bulletsponge · 08-21-2006, 06:21 PM

umm i just read all this... one minute to process. im going to go to my throne room to think about it, be back in 10 to give my 2c

Alan T · 08-21-2006, 06:26 PM

Current vote as I see it:

3 - SnDvls - Swaggs, ChiefRum, SnDvls
2 - molson - Grammaticus, Dodgerchick
2 - Grammaticus - molson, tanglewood
2 - Tanglewood - Barkeep, Daddytorgo
1 - Swaggs - bulletsponge

08-21-2006, 04:56 PM	#1753
tanglewood College Benchwarmer Join Date: Oct 2004	dola Also if I am lying why not come out and say Grammaticus is 100% a wolf? It would be pretty weak to fake-reveal that someone is maybe a wolf, at least from where I'm standing.

08-21-2006, 04:57 PM	#1754
tanglewood College Benchwarmer Join Date: Oct 2004	double dola And I really don't get why people are saying I'm saving Molson. 1) He isn't even in the lead at this point. 2) I VOTE FOR HIM YESTERDAY TO PUT HIM IN A TIE FOR THE LEAD. He was in second place, I vote and potentially place him in a tie, so he could have been potentially lynched by the Masons if things stayed as they were. As it happened of course Grammaticus SWITCHED HIS VOTE KILLED A VILLAGER.

08-21-2006, 05:16 PM	#1757
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	I'm finding it hard to believe Tangle is good. I would rather LYNCH tangle first and then go from there. I mean if Tangle IS a good guy he was going to die tonight anyway. The games Tangle could play as Dr. R are great. Being Dr. R acts the same as being a seer, in essence and I simply do not think there are secret roles in this game. Therefore someone claiming to have a secret role? Likely bad. And in this case there is a way to reconcile what Tangle is telling us with what we do know, as fact. Therefore, I Unvote Grammaticus Vote Tanglewood I would normally not do this, but with my coming up with a plausible scenario for how a fake reveal by Tangle wins the game, in essence, I think we should lynch first ask questions later. The most important part of this banks on the idea that there are NO SECRET ROLES. Either side would likely have found one by now if there was one. So if you believe there are no secret roles, as I do, then Tangle is Dr. R and should be disposed of before we go on our way. And if I'm wrong? Well then we lynch Grammaticus tomorrow in a landslide vote and are in good shape at 5-2.

08-21-2006, 05:21 PM	#1759
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Just to follow up on the last post: I think we need to stop looking at molson and sndvls for today. By the very nature of the situation either Tangle or Grammaticus has to be bad. Our votes should be cast as such. I have gone with Tangle, but could understand (though not support right now) those going with Grammaticus. But let's focus our votes there. The other two people in the mix simply mean it's more likely that a bad guy can slip through the net.

08-21-2006, 05:22 PM	#1760
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	What a turn of events. I'm pretty much a believer in the tanglewood reveal at the moment because 1 - I know Gram's completely wrong about me, and 2 -. I've been saying/thinking for a while that the game seemed unbalanced with the one-sided roles. I'll have to take a closer look at everything after work. I haven't seen Sndvls back since his self-vote - hopefully that's not the deciding vote.

08-21-2006, 05:23 PM	#1761
Lorena Unregistered Join Date: May 2004	I'm a little confused on the Dr. Reiman role. Is Dr. Reiman evil? First page says it counts as a "human" victory.

08-21-2006, 05:24 PM	#1762
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	And Gram's ridiculous for point out my switched votes. His raw list of switched votes is extremely misleading. I switched to noddadrop day 1 - so what. I switched day 2 in a vote that had no impact. Meanwhile, Gram's late voting has directly killed two villagers.

08-21-2006, 05:28 PM	#1765
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	Is it too obvious now that Sundvls is Dr. R? Wouldn't it be in Dr. Rs interest to get himself killed at this point? Sorry if this has been pointed out. Don't vote Sundvls! Vote Gram!

08-21-2006, 05:28 PM	#1766
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	if your math is correct barkeep, then everyone good ought to vote Tangle today. It really gives us the best chance of coming out of the situation with the most knowledge and potential kills. because if tangle is good and we err in killing him...the wolves would have got him anyways and they still have the chance of hitting Dr. R anyways in the night action and we know the following day that we have a guarenteed kill in gram. but if tangle is bad then we've eliminated him and the wolves will likely take out gram anyways since he will be fairly clearly trusted by virtue of being implicated by tangle.

08-21-2006, 05:29 PM	#1767
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	dola and in the second case, if the wolves elect to leave gram they could still hit reiman

08-21-2006, 05:30 PM	#1768
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	But, if Tangle is Dr. R, faking a seerer role would be a pretty good way to have the wolves lynch you - which would help their side.

08-21-2006, 05:32 PM	#1770
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	so either we kill tangle or the wolves kill tangle. seems like it's immaterial at this point. and if we avoid voting for gram we at least hold out the possibility that gram stays alive if he is a mason.

08-21-2006, 05:32 PM	#1771
tanglewood College Benchwarmer Join Date: Oct 2004	Well I'm dissapointed in you Barkeep, I know you're a good guy you need to make the right decision. Which way of finding out helps the bad guys more? If we lynch Grammaticus first then we get a bad guy today, a potential wolf today. We cannot rule out the possibility that there are actually 4 wolves and not three as we have been presuming. If that is the case, then we will lose if we lynch a good guy today. Heck, even if you want to assume that I am a bad guy think logically man. There is no way I am a wolf, it just doesn't make sense for a wolf to try a fake reveal at this point, it's way too risky. So, even if I am Dr. Reimann, we are still lynching a human today, which could lose the game for us. On the other hand, if I am telling the truth and you lynch me first, we could lose, even if my lynch proved Gramm is a bad guy. It could be too late. It just doesn't make sense. But then I guess it never seems to make sense when you know you are right and see people you know who are good making the wrong decision. It's simple: 1. Grammaticus is a bad guy. You don't even need my reveal to tell you that. He was odd the first few days, then as he got heat dropped back and let Blade/Lathum take over. He has regullary switched votes. Yesterday, when two major suspects, Molson and SnDvls, were tied and could be potentially lynched by the Masons, he switches his vote right at the deadline and takes out a villager. The guy is already guilty! Then the seer comes out and says he scaneed him die to above suspocious behaviour and confirms him as bad. How much more clear could it be? 2. Even if you for some reason doubt this, lynching me first makes no sense for the village. EVEN IF I AM LYING I AM A HUMAN. LYNCHING ME IS BAD REGARDLESS. IF WE LYNCH GRAMM FIRST WE GET A BAD GUY AND PROBABLY A WOLF (3/4 or 4/5 chance). IF YOU LYNCH ME WE MIGHT LOSE. For god sake. I don't know why I am even having to go into such a silly hypothetical. Gramm is a bad guy!!!!

08-21-2006, 05:34 PM	#1772
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Lots of people have been disappointed with me this game tangle. I suppose I could win "most disappointing player".

08-21-2006, 05:35 PM	#1773
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Tangle: You're suggesting that there were FOUR wolves plus Dracula plus Dr. 4? So 5 out of 22 starting bad guys? Just making sure this is the theory you're advancing.

08-21-2006, 05:36 PM	#1774
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Dola -- I meant to say 6 out of 22 starting bad guys or just under 1/3 of the players started as an evil role.

08-21-2006, 05:37 PM	#1775
molson General Manager Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: The Mountains	[quote=Barkeep49]I'm confused with what you're saying here. [quote] Dr. R. wants to die at this point, correct? He has no powers left, and his death greatly help his team. Two players have been engaged in self-destructive behavior yesterday or today. Sndvls with the self-vote (and the attitude), and tanglewood, with the seer revelation. I'm not convined of either, but I'm just throwing it out there.

08-21-2006, 05:39 PM	#1777
Lorena Unregistered Join Date: May 2004	darn, hit the submit button too quickly. So do we wanna eliminate Dr. Reiman? He does count as a human victory.

08-21-2006, 05:40 PM	#1779
tanglewood College Benchwarmer Join Date: Oct 2004	All I'm saying is that it's a real possibility. Remember, Reimann counts for us in the final tally, so really when it comes to the endgame it is 5/22. And even so, 6/22 is not out of line with some ratios in other games we've played before. Sure, it's just speculation, but I think we could lose the game today. Infact, even if we don't lose the game today, isn't lynching me still killing a guarenteed human when we are at the most two chances from losing? Isn't that just a bad idea? I'd claim you were all evil kniving wolves voting for me, but it's clear at least one of you is a misguided good guy. Heck, if you want to put it up to a tie and let the masons decide between me and Gramm. At least that way we have some chance of hitting a wolf today.

08-21-2006, 05:43 PM	#1784
Grammaticus Pro Rookie Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: Tennessee	Look at the day two vote. There is a reason that I won the tie and that I wanted the villagers to keep it on a tie at the end of the day. In these games, I have seen tie's decided in two ways. Either someone gets to change the vote via a Duke like role and you know the vote was moved. Or the tie breakers cause a break based on who they voted for. In the day two vote, those who voted for "Chubby" won the vote. Look at the day 5 vote. I know a tie was bad so I moved the vote. If it had stayed a tie as the votes were laid out, No lynch would have occurred. I did not feel good about lynching SnDvls, because I felt uncertain. I knew if I moved to Molson, Tangle and Molson would counter and SnDvls would get lynched. So I moved to Farrah as my only other option and I felt she could have been a wolf.

08-21-2006, 05:46 PM	#1789
Grammaticus Pro Rookie Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: Tennessee	It is the best route to vote Molson. Tangle came out with his fake role reveal only after I suggested a Molson vote and backed it up with analysis. Molson is their fear point right now. Tangle is likely Dr. Raimen and should be saved for later.

08-21-2006, 05:52 PM	#1794
tanglewood College Benchwarmer Join Date: Oct 2004	Well, so everything today has turned out to be pretty shit. Let's spell it out again... 1) I am the Seer: Should we lynch me? NO. 2) I am Dr. Reimann: Should we lynch me? NO. I am not trying to scaremonger regarding the whole there might be 4 wolves thing either, I am genuinly fearful of it. I mean come on. Seriously.

08-21-2006, 05:53 PM	#1795
tanglewood College Benchwarmer Join Date: Oct 2004	The whole fact that I'm having to argue that I might be evil in order to kill someone who is evil is absurd. Werewolf is a game invented by Dadists.

08-21-2006, 05:55 PM	#1797
Lorena Unregistered Join Date: May 2004	It seems Sndvls in the lead with 3 votes, counting his own of course. I think we should keep tanglewood, for now as I have a strong suspicion he is Dr. Reiman. Vote molson

08-21-2006, 06:04 PM	#1798
Grammaticus Pro Rookie Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: Tennessee	Day two vote recap: Chubby: Blade, BulletS, Dodgerschick, Grammaticus Gramm: GoldenEagles, Fouts, Swaggs, AlanT Chubby wins the lynch vote and Grammaticus wins the tie surviving. Why do you think that happened? Blade, GE, Fouts and AlanT are all dead.

08-21-2006, 06:21 PM	#1799
bulletsponge Pro Starter Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: TX	umm i just read all this... one minute to process. im going to go to my throne room to think about it, be back in 10 to give my 2c

08-21-2006, 06:26 PM	#1800
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	Current vote as I see it: 3 - SnDvls - Swaggs, ChiefRum, SnDvls 2 - molson - Grammaticus, Dodgerchick 2 - Grammaticus - molson, tanglewood 2 - Tanglewood - Barkeep, Daddytorgo 1 - Swaggs - bulletsponge

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