Werewolf LXXXVIII: Game Thread

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Carpentry - Danny(443), Packer(339), Tyrith(419), Tyrith(419), jackal (469), KWHit (521), Jonathan (564), CR (567)

Carpentry - Repaired

Throwing stuff out of my brain:

Eight actions were needed for the carpentry to be finished, and eight actions were made. On the face of it, it looks like everyone's action was legit, but I notice that KWhit was one of the workers. Since he's the master carpenter, I wonder if his actions on the carpentry are possibly doubled or something. I'm probably way off base, but I don't want to automatically assume that everyone on the carpentry workforce today was sincere in their action.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Trust:
RealDeal (appears to be who he says he is)

I'm going to have to disagree with you here. It's not that I completely think he is evil, but he's by no means crossed over into my trusted list. The fact that he decided not to work on the walls on day one and work on the artwork instead is a move I just can't wrap my head around.

While it would be easy for an angel to know if Telle was lying, wouldn't a demon know as well? Lucifer knew that Telle was lying and what better way to get on the side of good than to come out strong against a wolfish player? I know there is a restriction on Lucifer telling the demons who Gabriel is, but can Lucifer tell the demons that someone is lying about being Gabriel? Or at least hint strongly that Telle is not who she claims to be? Or have I lost the plot completely?

[Danny]

Glad we at least got someone who is bad. Too bad it wasn't day 1.

[Chief Rum]

Okay, having re-read from the start, it amazes me anyone even came close to buying Telle's story. I know I come from hindsight on that, so I guess you can pin it down to that if you want, but really at no point was anything Telle was saying nearly as creditable to me as RealDeal. And while I believe Render is a villager, given his vouchsafe with JE, it felt like he was stubbornly locked into RD and making really complicated arguments and ignoring basic logic to go after RD (and throwing around Occam's Razor a lot, ironically).

That doesn't change for me the fact that I think Render is a villager, but until I see otherwise, I am leaning to discounting his logic in the game until it makes more sense to me.

Interesting sidenote that is, to my viewing, still unresolved: Alan T seems to be coming out fairly strongly for PB's villager-ness, based on some hints given or interaction that is unclear to anyone but them. But PB spends significant time asking for opinions about Alan's allegiance, even when Alan was really not the focal point of today's discussion.

Point is, PB ain't reciprocating (yet), and whatever information they have on one another, it is apparently less revealing about Alan than it is PB.

There is an outside chance that Alan and PB are drumming up some complicated wolf play, and if I were to choose to do that, I think this kind of confusion would be an ideal way to try it. But it seems to be an unnecessary risk so early in the game, so I tend to discount that.

BTW, I don't have the time right now to check it out, but it might be good to check out Telle's posts to see if we can glean any allegiance from who she does or does not go after and speak about. She knew who the Demons are.

Also, if Pass is telling the truth, based on the posted ruleset, we now know at least one power of Lucifer. I don't see any ability among the other demons that suggest the ability to switch a work assignment, but Lucifer has a number of hidden abilties (as does Lucifer).

I will be working again tomorrow, but I have done my overtime for the week, and have other errands to do at home tomorrow night, so I am pretty certain to be around an hour or two before deadline to get my actions in (in a more timely manner than tonight anyway).

[Barkeep49]

You better hope you don't get sick any more now that your healer, a must good sort, has been brutally and bloodily killed.

Healer is so much more of a refined title than Witch. You know some call you a witch, but that’s just not what you do and of course they don’t call you that when they’re ill and in need of your help. Due to your worldly knowledge each night you may choose a player to investigate. You will learn if they are a regular villager or supernatural, though not if they are a demon or angel.

Walls - 1 shift
Roof - 7 shifts
Windows - 7 shifts
Artwork - Repaired
Carpentry - Repaired

[Passacaglia]

Looking at the first page, the healer was PurdueBrad.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Ezarik

I'm going to have to disagree with you here. It's not that I completely think he is evil, but he's by no means crossed over into my trusted list. The fact that he decided not to work on the walls on day one and work on the artwork instead is a move I just can't wrap my head around.

While it would be easy for an angel to know if Telle was lying, wouldn't a demon know as well? Lucifer knew that Telle was lying and what better way to get on the side of good than to come out strong against a wolfish player? I know there is a restriction on Lucifer telling the demons who Gabriel is, but can Lucifer tell the demons that someone is lying about being Gabriel? Or at least hint strongly that Telle is not who she claims to be? Or have I lost the plot completely?

I'm not sure I understand. If RealDeal was a demon, and knew Telle was lying about being Gabriel, why would he say anything? If he was a demon, the only explanation that makes sense from his perspective (knowing that she is not a demon, and probably knowing that she is not Gabriel), is that she's the cultist. This is backed up based on how insistent she was that she would scan as a villager -- despite RendeR's argument that she might have been an angel other than Gabriel.

Also, he didn't work on artwork instead -- he faked one of his work periods on the walls. This doesn't make him less likely to be an angel IMO -- it just means the angels have win conditions such that it made sense to fake the work.

[Passacaglia]

Off to work in a bit. I should be here by deadline, so I won't put in actions now. Hopefully PB spotted a human for us -- I'll check through his posts, but someone else should as well, so the info gets out there before I get back.

[PurdueBrad]

Ummm, OUCH! Good luck village.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Off to work in a bit. I should be here by deadline, so I won't put in actions now. Hopefully PB spotted a human for us -- I'll check through his posts, but someone else should as well, so the info gets out there before I get back.

I'm pretty sure PB scanned Alan yesterday and he was supernatural. I'll dig up the post.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Looking at that list, Hannibal is dead, we're not quite sure where to go on Telle's reveal, leaving: Chief Rum and PurdueBrad who did 2 units of worked and could have faked both OR a combination of RendeR, Real, Alan, Telle, CR, and PB each faking one unit.

Honestly, I would be more likely to believe that two people each faked one unit of work rather than one person taking the early burden of faking two. I could be wrong. Looking at that list, I'm not quite ready to go Telle, leaving it RendeR, Real, or Alan T for me and I will throw out an early vote.

I may be holding up a double-standard here by not going after Hoops for not using his second action as well, but I feel like that Alan both worked on walls AND didn't use his second action. I'm guessing that the supernatural label fits him to A T. although I think this will drive some action against me.

vote Alan T.
vote Alan T.

"supernatural label fits him to A T". So it looks like a 50/50 shot of angel/demon.

[hoopsguy]

Also, for work today there is only one unit of walls that we can complete. So I would suggest that today be a very vote-heavy day. 3 people with one action on walls (we need them done, period) and everyone else putting in double votes today seems right to me.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm pretty sure PB scanned Alan yesterday and he was supernatural. I'll dig up the post.

I don't think this is a suprise to anyone. He pretty much outed me in the thread yesterday and while no one ever came right out and said I was an angel, it likely was clear thanks to PurdueBrad's handling of his information regarding me that I was either an angel or demon.

As I eluded to yesterday directly at PurdueBrad, I really wished he had handled it differently and at least given me time to catch up and try to "communicate" with him instead of rushing in how he did and blowing both his and my cover. Real Deal could attest to if he wanted that I pretty much commented to the other angels earlier in the morning that PB had thrown out hints and knew I was one or the other.

You are correct however, that it is 50/50 chance in a villager's eyes that I am angel/demon. I guess it is up to your better judgement if you really think my play yesterday was "demon play"

Since PurdueBrad already outed me, no harm in giving at least a decent amount of information that I have available.

I am the Angel Seraph

I have taken the human form of this minstrel and in doing so have been working to master some of the abilities that the minstrel may have had prior.

(Game note: my impression of my PM is that all of the human roles had some special catch to them or minor way of "helping" Then the demons and angels were randomly rolled to see which ones ended up being the angels and demons. I am sure Barkeep had some game balancing, but for the most part it seems that Angels (and likely Demons) have not only their angel abilities but also at least some form of their human host's abilities as well).

As for my mission on this Earth, I am told that there are several pieces to it. The building and protection of the Cathedral is of utmost importance. There also is one among you humans that is of such virtue that he shall one day become a Saint. We shall do our best to protect him as well. (I shall not give up the name of who that is). Finally we must safeguard the spiritual health of this community. There will be some form of rewards for the humans at different levels of spiritual health. The downside to this part is the only way to safeguard your spiritual health is to fake our work on the cathedral.

I won't go into any detail of what specific abilities or powers myself or my fellow angels have, even though RealDeal did discuss his a bit. We do have some forms of protection for both the cathedral, our fellow Angels and you humans that can be used. Unfortunately we won't be of any added help in locating the demons as we must weigh each person's actions the same as you in determining who is not of the true faith. It makes me sad that those humans who had such abilities are no longer among us as well.

Now for my own personal daytime actions thus far this game: Day 1, I worked on the walls and the artwork and faked neither of them. (I was not one of the ones who faked the walls that day and I was honest in my thought that it was Telle + Real Deal who did fake them. Telle for evil intent and Real Deal for a noble intent.

Day two I obviously voted twice for Telle.

I won't go into detail about what I have been up to at night as that is not important at this point. I am a little upset at being outed by PB so early, but on the other side at least it can help foster more openness between the Angels and the Humans. I apologize if my participation in day time discussions aren't as high as you normally would expect, but I also have quite a heavy work load that keeps me away from the forums a good part of the day currently.

[DaddyTorgo]

busy morning at work. hopefully the afternoon will slow down a bit. just gonna read the results.

[hoopsguy]

Your vote + trust list from last night pretty strongly suggest that you were aligning yourself with RealDeal. So if he isn't going to come out burying you today then I'm inclined to trust you.

If the angels had "forms of protection for humans" that could have been used then why wouldn't you have tried to guard PB last night? Was this at least discussed?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Your vote + trust list from last night pretty strongly suggest that you were aligning yourself with RealDeal. So if he isn't going to come out burying you today then I'm inclined to trust you.

If the angels had "forms of protection for humans" that could have been used then why wouldn't you have tried to guard PB last night? Was this at least discussed?

I don't think it is a good idea to openly discuss how that protection works, when it works and what is involved. The only way I can answer this question is that it seemed fairly likely with the way PurdueBrad came out yesterday first in the morning and later in the afternoon at least to me that he would have a target on his back last night. I am sad that he has passed away and if I could have prevented it, I would have.

[Alan T]

Having DaddyTorgo pop in the thread, and the conversation about PurdueBrad leads me to also desire to draw an interesting parallel.

Here are two different proclaimed humans that both had individual information presented to them during the day that helped them learn about someone else.

PurdueBrad had received information about me and pretty much immediately decided a 50/50 chance was good enough for him and came after me, dropping clues in the thread just in case he died I suppose. But the clues were a bit too obvious to me and was discussed among the angels that morning first thing. I assume the demons also were just as observant about them. Later in the day as the vote goes a different direction, and one that he had no special information about he stuck to his own 50/50 chance, further hilighting that he had special information about me. Finally later in the day he was pretty out front and basically gave away that he knew there was something special about me and wanted to find out how Real Deal and Telle aligned themselves with me.

DaddyTorgo on the other hand received information about Telle that told him she was lying. Doing the math here, there was two good roles and four bad roles that Telle could have been to have logically produced this lie. Instead of playing the percentages, DaddyTorgo went with the 33% chance and said he felt she was good, and arguement that only he and Render believed in. Does this automatically mean to me that DaddyTorgo is bad in my mind? Probably not, perhaps it was just a bad play on his part, or an error in judgement. The main thing stopping me from outright putting a vote on DaddyTorgo after this play is that Telle was not a demon, but instead the cultist. So only 5 people would know otherwise that Telle was not Gabriel, the three angels, and Lucifer. I assume the other two demons would not know as Lucifer is not allowed to say so. That means to me that either DaddyTorgo is Lucifer, or a human that just made a poor play. For now the odds suggest giving him the benefit of the doubt I suppose.

[hoopsguy]

Fair enough, agreed that you do not want to give away an edge publicly. But I also thought PB had put himself out there last night and thought he made for a good bodyguard option.

After re-reading the last few pages over again I'm just about positive that RealDeal will not be gunning for you today.

[DaddyTorgo]

More people were inclined to that way of thinking earlier in the day if you look at the voting history. RendeR laid out a good-looking case, complete with work-faking and a quasi-reveal. Even down to about the time I was called away last night before deadline it was still a bit murky. Fact is until the PB-thing went down, the only votes on Telle were 3 by RealDeal and one by someone else (I forget who). 5 seperate people (or so) had voted RealDeal.

I made an error in judgement obviously and wasn't around to correct it. It happens.

fairly busy day at work, not sure how around i'll be right now.

[RealDeal]

So there's no doubt, everything Alan T. says is true. He is an angel.

It's a shame he had to reveal. Not sure why Purdue and Render were basically trying to make me reveal him last night. That's not very good villager play.

[Danny]

At this point, assuming RealDeal doesn't come out against him, I see no reason to not believe Alan T and look elsewhere for a demon.

Also, since Telle likely faked her work and RealDeal faked one point, that accounts for all work faked on the walls from day one.

[Danny]

And I missed Real's post. He confirmed it, so we should look elsewhere for a vote today.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

More people were inclined to that way of thinking earlier in the day if you look at the voting history. RendeR laid out a good-looking case, complete with work-faking and a quasi-reveal. Even down to about the time I was called away last night before deadline it was still a bit murky. Fact is until the PB-thing went down, the only votes on Telle were 3 by RealDeal and one by someone else (I forget who). 5 seperate people (or so) had voted RealDeal.

I made an error in judgement obviously and wasn't around to correct it. It happens.

fairly busy day at work, not sure how around i'll be right now.

That vote for Telle was mine. Logic clearly backed up RealDeal more than Telle. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if a demon or two dropped a vote on her later.

[Danny]

Telle - Danny (442), RealDeal (458), RealDeal (458), RealDeal (458), hoops (495), KWhit (521), Purdue (527), Purdue (527), Alan (538), Alan (538), Render (543)

For now we can assume RealDeal, and Alan T are angels. If they were not, I am sure a real angel would come out to catch two demons which has not happened. Purdue was good and I know I am good. Render has some trust bust on he and Jonathan's thing.

So that leaves KWhit from the group I suspect where a demon put there vote.

Vote KWhit

[Danny]

Hoops is there also, but I am voting Kwhit for the time being. I would strongly think there is a wolf between the two of them.

[Danny]

Off to work, will be back with plenty of time left tonight.

[jeheinz72]

I'm confused Danny, I thought discussion was leaning towards the fact that the demons likely knew Telle was the cultist. Wouldn't they be less inclined to vote for her?

[Alan T]

I don't have a problem with the Kwhit vote myself.

Demons wouldn't have known Telle was the cultist. Only Lucifer did. Kwhit is definitely one of my targets myself as well. I think that was a decent thought process, and in this case, the demons didn't lose regardless who was lynched. So I also think it likely some stayed out of it all together and just went to build things.

I'm still leaning towards voting Passacaglia, but Kwhit would be fine with me as well.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Danny

Hoops is there also, but I am voting Kwhit for the time being. I would strongly think there is a wolf between the two of them.

For what it is worth, I believed RealDeal over Telle earlier in the day but I was interested in seeing how it shook out and what positions people would take on it. When I arrived the vote was 6-4 to lynch RealDeal, with three of the Telle votes coming from RealDeal himself. I stated my case at that point on why I believed RealDeal, still did not see people moving, so I put my vote down to see how it would shake out.

If I had a vested interest in the vote going the other way I probably would have voted to make it 7-4 and try to put some distance on this one rather than closing the gap.

[Alan T]

Looking at my last post and the poor grammar there ugh... I can't wait till work settles down.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I don't have a problem with the Kwhit vote myself.

Demons wouldn't have known Telle was the cultist. Only Lucifer did. Kwhit is definitely one of my targets myself as well. I think that was a decent thought process, and in this case, the demons didn't lose regardless who was lynched. So I also think it likely some stayed out of it all together and just went to build things.

I'm still leaning towards voting Passacaglia, but Kwhit would be fine with me as well.

I think this may have been the case as well. The angels knew one of their own was on the block and backed him with 5+ votes (3 Real Deal, 2 Alan, assuming at least one more is on him). The demons knew one of their own was not on the block, so where do they put their votes? Well, not a lot of incentive to get mixed up in this one unless it is to make sure they create a two-candidate run-off that doesn't include one of their own.

I think they either voted early on this or avoided it to do work. They clearly did not vote late, as PB + Alan + Render were the votes after KWhit.

[RealDeal]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

More people were inclined to that way of thinking earlier in the day if you look at the voting history. RendeR laid out a good-looking case, complete with work-faking and a quasi-reveal. Even down to about the time I was called away last night before deadline it was still a bit murky. Fact is until the PB-thing went down, the only votes on Telle were 3 by RealDeal and one by someone else (I forget who). 5 seperate people (or so) had voted RealDeal.

I made an error in judgement obviously and wasn't around to correct it. It happens.

fairly busy day at work, not sure how around i'll be right now.

The work-faking really shouldn't have contributed to the case against me since the only reason anyone knew that is because I told them.

I was stunned that you were not voting for Telle when you knew with 100% certainty that she was lying. I'm still trying to figure that out.

[hoopsguy]

RD, for what it is worth I wish that one of the angels has suggested putting extra work on the walls if you knew that you were going to have to fake on that section to achieve other goals.

That said, you guys are right about DT making a weird vote there. Math suggested there were more bad roles than good roles if Telle was not Gabriel.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by RealDeal

The work-faking really shouldn't have contributed to the case against me since the only reason anyone knew that is because I told them.

That's actually the only thing that convinced me to vote for you. First, you lied and said that you had placed two work actions on the walls. Then when asked about which action you faked and you said walls, you didn't have a legitimate (to me) reason for not working on the walls. I still don't understand why you chose to work on the artwork instead of the walls.

While I do appreciate that you came forward and gave us this information on your own, I hope you can see why I was leery of your reveal.

[hoopsguy]

RealDeal - DaddyTorgo (380), PackerFanatic (397), Telle (403), Telle (403), jeheinze (437), Jonathan (536)

Telle - Danny (442), RealDeal (458), RealDeal (458), RealDeal (458), hoops (495), KWhit (521), Purdue (527), Purdue (527), Alan (538), Alan (538), Render (543)


Walls - Pass(282)

Carpentry - Danny(443), Packer(339), Tyrith(419), Tyrith(419), jackal (469), KWHit (521), Jonathan (564), CR (567)

artwork - Hoops(315), Jackal(318), Daddy T (512), Render (543), CR (567)

Roof – Pass


OK, that is the final tally from yesterday. I'm going to work on putting together the old "vote/unvote" grid to see what jumps out. I know RendeR was on RD early and was in position to have the "longest held vote" for the tie-breaker before he switched.

[Alan T]

Trying to tie together various actions of unknowns and knowns , one thing that jumped out at me was:

Telle as the cultist knew who the demons were, the demons did not know who the cultist was. When there were suddenly two different people stating that Telle was lying, the demons had to assume that she was the Cultist. Did Telle try to signal anywhere previously? Was there any lines drawn previously?

Day one, the first vote thrown out there was Packerfanatic's vote on Hannibal. Seemingly innocent, first vote no big deal. No one knew Hannibal was the seer, no reason for a big push. Suddenly the second vote of the day also was real quickly thrown on Hannibal by Telle as well.

It was a day that likely was going to get less votewise as many people had already stated they likely were going to use both actions on building instead of voting. So perhaps only 4-5 votes would be needed for a lynch, and Telle's second vote real quick put Hannibal in increasing danger.

The quick second vote on someone doesn't really make much sense for a wolf to do nor a villager to do in most games, and in most games trying to lynch someone from being the second vote on a player ends up in just lynching a villager. This was different however in that Telle was the cultist and possibly was looking for ways to send messages to the wolves.

So what if there was a reason for the quick second vote? It would tell two things, obviously as we know Hannibal is not a demon, but would it tell something to Packerfanatic as well?

Lets look at how Packerfanatic then responded in day 2 when Telle was on the line and two people revealed that she was not Gabriel. Packer was a real quick second vote on RealDeal in a move that didn't really make much sense. We already discussed Render and DaddyTorgo's play there in more depth, but Packerfanatic also either made the same mistake or had some other reason for doing so..


So yeah, it could be completely coincidental how Packer and Telle paired up not only in votes but in how they acted, but there could also be something more to it. Just throwing another name out for discussion here.

[jeheinz72]

Man, this is one of those games where I just feel so less informed than everyone else and I can't catch up. I totally screwed the pooch yesterday letting my emotions of RD's tact get the better of sound judgement.

All I really know if Alan and RD are angels and it's not being disputed. Seeing as that I'm a villager and they're the good guys, I'm inclined to vote with them today.

If work needs to be done, someone just clue me in as to where. I'd be happy to be one of the wall workers (we need 3, right?)

[hoopsguy]

Hmm, the post review is going to be a monster so I'm going to try and break it into smaller chunks.



Post #280 - BK announces Lathum is dead
Post #282 - Pass double vote to do work on Walls
Post #284 - Pass: "faking this work would be suicide"
Post #286 - PB double votes Alan (already explained by now)
Post #303 - KWhit says he will look past Telle for now, this will sort itself out
Post #306 - I say that many people would know Telle is lying if she is lying
Post #307 - PF agrees with my post, says to go elsewhere than Telle for lynch is a better idea
Post #308 - Danny agrees with PF
Post #313 - Heinz agrees with leaving Telle alone today
Post #316 - I assume Telle is an angel because no one has called her out yet
Post #323 - Heinz votes Chief Rum
Post #324 - DT asks Telle if she is Gabriel, refers to last game costing team when they left unverified player alone for days
Post #327 - Telle says she is Gabriel
Post #335 - Tyrith says he will likely vote "for one of the wall gang"
Post #347 - Render says he does not think Telle is lying with her reveal
Post #353 - DT reveals that Telle is not Gabriel
Pots #354 - Hoops votes PurdueBrad
Posts #356-360 - Telle disputes DTs "scan"

[hoopsguy]

Part Two:

Post #361 - RD says that Torgo confirms his suspicions, says he can potentially cast three votes on Telle and is going to do so
Post #363 - RendeR argues that DTs info does not damn Telle
Post #366 - RendeR thinks RD is a suspect for going after Telle
Post #371 - Hoops: math says vote for Telle, but doesn't want to end up crossing up angels
Post #375 - Render reveals that he/Jonathan can cross-vouch each other as human. Votes RealDeal
Post #380 - DT votes RealDeal
Post #381 - Jonathan backs rendeR
Post #385 - Hoops unvotes PurdueBrad
Post #392 - RendeR explains vote on RealDeal is based on the vigor with which he went after Telle, thinks RD is being opportunistic
Post #395 - PF says RD is on his radar
Post #397 - PF votes RD, "sudden play this afternoon seems fishy to me"
Post #400 - RD reveals that he is Michah

[PackerFanatic]

I was going to switch to Telle after the events of yesterday unfolded, but two things were against me:

A) She was already going down, and my vote was not really needed to begin with

B) I was under the impression that unvoting voided your work, and when I found out otherwise, it was already too late.

I was just thrown off by how quickly RD was jumping on the Telle bandwagon, but I now obviously see why he was doing so, and my thinkings were off-base.

[hoopsguy]

Longest one yet, and last of the post reviews:

Post #401 - RendeR is more confident in his vote after RD reveal
Post #403 - Telle double votes RealDeal
Post #404-412 - RD/Telle discuss revealing Gabriel info
Post #407 - Heinz unvotes Chief Rum
Post #413 - RD asks DT why he is voting for him instead of Telle, who he knows is lying
Post #419 - Tyrith double works on Carpentry
Post #426 - RealDeal presents 4 points to make his case
Post #432 - RealDeal admits to faking walls on day 1
Post #437 - Heinz says "faking walls" seals it, votes for RealDeal
Post #439 - Danny most likely voting Telle
Post #441 - RD is frustrated by villager thought processes
Post #442 - Danny votes Telle
Post #449 - Heinz suggests that DT is looking for wiggle room with his info on Telle
Posts #452-455 - RendeR digs in defending Telle
Post #458 - RD triple votes Telle
Post #461 - DT says that he thought RendeR argued better than RD
Post #478 - Hoops: RD significantly more likely to be angel than Telle
Post #486 - RD explains angel approach with Telle, says he does not think RendeR=demon
Post #495 - Hoops votes Telle
Post #505 - Pass challenges RendeR, suggests he does not believe what he is saying
Post #507 - Pass follows my reasons for believing RD, but has already put in walls action
Post #509 - Alan tells PB that he is going to vote for Telle, believes RD, questions Pass
Post #512 - DT does artwork with 2nd action
Post #516 - RendeR says that Alan is starting to persuade him to move
Post #520 - Alan responds to RendeR
Post #521 - KWhit votes Telle (ties it) and does Carpentry
Post #527 - PB switches his two votes from Alan to Telle
Post #536 - Jonathan votes RealDeal
Post #538 - Alan double-votes Telle
Post #543 - RendeR changes vote from RD to Telle, works on Artwork
Post #544 - PF says "I was considering moving my vote, but I don't want to lose my work and feel that one is as good as the other tonight"
Post #563 - Rum in with 2 minutes to deadline, "what do I need to do right now?"
Post #567 - Rum does Carpentry, Artwork

[Tyrith]

For the first time all game I'm going to get to be here for more than an hour during the day phase. I'm still thinking about the whole thing, so I'll say something more substantive in a bit, but for now, I'm actually here to participate for once.

[Tyrith]

Well, it seems like there's no good reason to distrust RD and, by association, Alan at this point. If they're both bad then everything we've seen for the last day is an amazing conspiracy and we're never going to win this game, so I'm just going to assume they're both good.

This kind of leaves us on a lurch, because the only good piece of evidence we have is yesterday's vote count and there were a lot of votes that moved right near the end. Normally I'd be pretty suspicious of those people that moved at the end but one of them is a proven good and another is a likely good...so there's already a pretty obvious flaw in that plan.

That said, the highest leverage votes from yesterday seem to be the early ones on RD (even if later moved) or the late ones on Telle. We all, including the wolves, know those are the most useful and most dangerous places for wolves to hide.

Only real particular point of interest for me today is Render, because his entire argument from yesterday looks really crappy now. Telle being the cultist makes it a lot harder for it to seem like a conspiracy, though, unless a hint got across like Alan has been conjecturing.

On the whole, right now I'm absolutely nowhere.

[hoopsguy]

OK, obviously my notes/opinions that are mixed in with the post history are subjective. Another person reading through, and reporting on the posts, may choose to emphasize other points. Yada, yada, yada.

Here are my initial take-aways, with comments on players based on order listed in sign-up post:
- DT's info on Telle started the action, but his play seemed weird from that point on. Like he didn't want to be revealing the info, or didn't want to be responsible for how it shook out?
- Jonathan would be getting quite a bit of pressure from me right now if RendeR had not cleared him. Late votes for people opposing Telle each of the last two days.
- Chief Rum's scheduling issues are making it hard to get a read on him. No votes in first two days
- Tyrith ducked the vote, putting both of his actions into the Cathedral. However, he did have a D1 vote (Telle)
- KWhit was opposed early to idea of acting on Telle, but later cast the tying vote on Telle
- Pass committed both actions to building early in the day. Acted late D1 with double vote for work on Cathedral. Called out Telle on her bluff at end of D1, but was already committed to building.
- Jackal is like Chief Rum (four building votes) but without the well-known scheduling challenges. Tough read, actually forgot he was in game
- Heinz did not vote for Telle either time, has split votes/work. He is definitely on my radar, even without a "smoking gun" reason
- PackerFanatic has had a case made by Alan already. In his defense, his last post from last night matched up verbatim with his response to Alan this morning.

I recognize that this is about half the people in the game that are listed above, so that diminishes the value. But at least it should provide some talking points for today and give people an opportunity to respond.

I also don't necessarily want to see today turn into a game of "follow the vote of the angel" because that isn't helping us understand the motivations of the villagers/demons in the game.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Longest one yet, and last of the post reviews:

Post #401 - RendeR is more confident in his vote after RD reveal
Post #403 - Telle double votes RealDeal
Post #404-412 - RD/Telle discuss revealing Gabriel info
Post #407 - Heinz unvotes Chief Rum
Post #413 - RD asks DT why he is voting for him instead of Telle, who he knows is lying
Post #419 - Tyrith double works on Carpentry
Post #426 - RealDeal presents 4 points to make his case
Post #432 - RealDeal admits to faking walls on day 1
Post #437 - Heinz says "faking walls" seals it, votes for RealDeal
Post #439 - Danny most likely voting Telle
Post #441 - RD is frustrated by villager thought processes
Post #442 - Danny votes Telle
Post #449 - Heinz suggests that DT is looking for wiggle room with his info on Telle
Posts #452-455 - RendeR digs in defending Telle
Post #458 - RD triple votes Telle
Post #461 - DT says that he thought RendeR argued better than RD
Post #478 - Hoops: RD significantly more likely to be angel than Telle
Post #486 - RD explains angel approach with Telle, says he does not think RendeR=demon
Post #495 - Hoops votes Telle
Post #505 - Pass challenges RendeR, suggests he does not believe what he is saying
Post #507 - Pass follows my reasons for believing RD, but has already put in walls action
Post #509 - Alan tells PB that he is going to vote for Telle, believes RD, questions Pass
Post #512 - DT does artwork with 2nd action
Post #516 - RendeR says that Alan is starting to persuade him to move
Post #520 - Alan responds to RendeR
Post #521 - KWhit votes Telle (ties it) and does Carpentry
Post #527 - PB switches his two votes from Alan to Telle
Post #536 - Jonathan votes RealDeal
Post #538 - Alan double-votes Telle
Post #543 - RendeR changes vote from RD to Telle, works on Artwork
Post #544 - PF says "I was considering moving my vote, but I don't want to lose my work and feel that one is as good as the other tonight"
Post #563 - Rum in with 2 minutes to deadline, "what do I need to do right now?"
Post #567 - Rum does Carpentry, Artwork

Ummmm, not to be picky, but you missed the most important part...where I die!!!

<----- returns to the boneyard

[Tyrith]

If Telle was trying to drop a hint on D1 that was an extremely dangerous way to do it - she very nearly got lynched, and probably should have been lynched. A hint is supposed to be subtle, and it's no good if you aren't alive to use it. That would have been a pretty weird play.

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith, RendeR and Jonathan are vouching for each other so I do not think that he is a prime target for today.

It is already noon (CST) and we do not have any votes or actions in. I know that Friday's can get pretty slow around here so I'm hoping we can get some movement here.

I'll volunteer to put one of the actions in on the walls. I'm hoping that two others will join me to make sure that gets done. Everyone else should double vote.

I would put the walls order in now, but if I do I'm locked with it and there is nothing else to build. So if there are opposing thoughts on this, or certain people are dying to build today then speak quickly. Like in the next hour.

[Tyrith]

Commenting on hoops list, I think anyone who hasn't voted yet should be double voting today. Or anyone that didn't vote yesterday - which expands the group to include myself. This game doesn't seem like we're about to go off chasing our tails around for a day or two like we do sometimes, and that means everyone needs to be willing to risk killing a villager. Just has to be done, even if, like me today, you don't actually know anything.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Tyrith, RendeR and Jonathan are vouching for each other so I do not think that he is a prime target for today.

It is already noon (CST) and we do not have any votes or actions in. I know that Friday's can get pretty slow around here so I'm hoping we can get some movement here.

I'll volunteer to put one of the actions in on the walls. I'm hoping that two others will join me to make sure that gets done. Everyone else should double vote.

I would put the walls order in now, but if I do I'm locked with it and there is nothing else to build. So if there are opposing thoughts on this, or certain people are dying to build today then speak quickly. Like in the next hour.

No, no, no. I'm not vouching for those guys in any kind of role sense. But the way everything went down yesterday screams misguided villager towards Render, IMO. JE I don't have any kind of intelligent opinion on.

[hoopsguy]

No, let me restate.

RendeR vouches for Jonathan.
Jonathan cross-vouches for RendeR.

Happened in middle of yesterday, think I have it in my post recaps above.