Werewolf IX: Village of the Damned

[Raiders Army]

[quote=hoopsguy]Raiders, I'm not sure why you group Eagles and Vince along with me in red - yes, their post count was higher on one day but did either of them speak up for Digamma in the least? I recall feeling very lonely yesterday - which ended up being a very good thing since Dig was a wolf./QUOTE]

You're in red because your post count went up. Eagles and Vince's post counts went up substantially. The reason why I believe that may be an indicator of evil is that the more you post, the more chances you have to muddy the waters.

Lord knows at this point, I am contributing to this as well, but hopefully I'm trying to clear the waters instead of muddy them. One of the things to take into account for multiple posts is that someone who may not have internet access at work will come home and see four pages of stuff to wade through. Do you think that person will actually read all of it, or just skim everything and maybe read the last page?

Again, low post counts on a day when two villagers are on the line and then an increase of post counts on a day when a wolf is on the chopping block could be an indicator towards them being a wolf. I'm not saying they (or you) are a wolf...I'm just saying it may be a clue.

[Raiders Army]

I'd really like to edit that post, but oh well. Don't know how the other bracket got deleted.

[Poli]

To be honest, I really don't know which way to go right now.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I think we would have to be suspicious of anyone holding the Coat of Arms - it buys the wolves an extra day of eating.

Realdeal claims to be holding this...

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Realdeal claims to be holding this...

If he had it, the logical move would have been to pass it off last night. That's a huge item if it fell into the hands of the wolves.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

If he had it, the logical move would have been to pass it off last night. That's a huge item if it fell into the hands of the wolves.

Ya, but i think hes a wolf...so im a little worried...

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I would think the one item they would want and could have now is the Book of the Damned.

let's assume they all started w/ 1 silver. total 3 or the wolves.
night one - one wolf passes all items to the other two and gets a silver. They kill jeff who has at least 2 silver (one from ardent) total 6 silver at least after night 1.
night two- they purchase the book of the damned as the one with all the silver can do that.
night three - they convert one of us.

this is what I'm afraid of especially if fouts doesn't get saved and we linch a villager. then they have 4 wolves tomorrow and get a kill too!


edit: correct my first sentence as they could not have it yet, but could get it tonight.

Originally Posted by Peregrine

Just to clarify this, it takes two readings of the Book to make a new wolf, the first reading of the Book turns a human into a sorceror, then the sorceror would have to read another book to turn into a wolf.

Thought the fact that there could very well be another sorcerer around is worth noting...they might not of, but i havent seen any moves by them to make me think they spent their money...since fouts was a villager it would have been pointless for one of the bad guys to kill him since we were doing it for them

[Eaglesfan27]

Another point about my posts count going up. All of my posts were strongly in support of lynching Digamma! I don't know how my extra posting "muddied the waters."

If anything, I'm useful for clarifying the waters.

[hoopsguy]

Real, just wanted to clarify my thoughts on the Coat of Arms, as I did some thinking on this item over the night.

That item is much more useful to a wolf than to a human. If we end up voting to lynch someone and they are protected by the coat there is a strong likelihood we will go back to them the next day. If that person is a villager, they have now given the wolves one more day to eat. And, if there is another bandwagon, we gain nothing in the voting patterns.

I don't want this item falling into wolf hands - I would prefer that it is out of the game. So I understand some trepidation about passing this item if you are a villager. But the coat protects you from villagers, not wolves. By revealing you have this item (assuming you are telling the truth) you are making yourself a target for the wolves.

[hoopsguy]

Dola - I have no interest in receiving this item from you in the event that you do pass it. I would suggest that you move it to someone who is not likely to be among the clubhouse leaders for lynching. Don't want to save a wolf, don't want to put a villager in the spot where he is trapped the next day by its activation when he is headed for gallows (detailed this situation in earlier post).

[RealDeal]

I agreed with your message yesterday. I'm not going to say anything at this point about who I passed it to or I passed it. I agree that it's a dangerous item, and the wolves need to be left guessing about it.

[Mr. Wednesday]

It should have been passed last night, and the person that it should have been passed to is pretty obvious to me; saying that much is probably still putting too big of a target on their back.

[hoopsguy]

Since no one has offered up a suspect yet, I'm guessing that anyone with a seer power either saw villagers or hasn't been online yet.

Tactical question for the group - is there any harm in revealing that you viewed someone and they were a villager? I suppose there is if you are looking to hold onto the item for another night. But the wolves know who the wolves are - and right now it really feels like we are groping in the dark while trying to target the last two.

Of course, a wolf can claim he viewed the other wolf as a villager - but that is a very dangerous end-game for them if at some later point a villager decides to view one of those two to validate their claim.

[Eaglesfan27]

I personally think the seer should lay low until he has viewed two werewolves (unless the odds become heavily slanted against the villagers.) However, with our current expected ratio of villagers to wolves, if I was the seer I'd lay low until I could identify two wolves or somehow drag out the second wolf.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

I personally think the seer should lay low until he has viewed two werewolves (unless the odds become heavily slanted against the villagers.) However, with our current expected ratio of villagers to wolves, if I was the seer I'd lay low until I could identify two wolves or somehow drag out the second wolf.

Understood and I can agree with that logic, but what do we do tonight? Go for the tie again?

[Eaglesfan27]

I don't know. Hopefully, some good information will come up this afternoon that will point us in the right direction.

[RealDeal]

Well, I know that Blade is either a wolf or an idiot.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

What are people's thoughts on the hidden vote items? My thought is that they are more wolf-friendly than villager friendly, since disguised votes are more beneficial to the hunted by potentially skewing voting patterns. Not that we have had particularly close races the last two days ...

Except the one time a hidden vote was used, it nailed Digamma as the only vote. Kind of stupid for the wolves to use it on themselves as a singular vote right?

[RealDeal]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Except the one time a hidden vote was used, it nailed Digamma as the only vote. Kind of stupid for the wolves to use it on themselves as a singular vote right?

Yeah, I don't know what to think of it. Did someone have it who was a seer previously or who was able to communicate with a seer? And if so, and we see another vote like that, will it mean the same thing, or will it be cast by a different person who may have different motives. Looking back, I don't think it was a coincidence, but I don't know how helpful it is going forward.

[Raiders Army]

My guess is that BrianD did it? He died, and obviously can't come forth to take credit for it.

[MrBug708]

Is it me or is there very little silver in this game?

[SnDvls]

checking in this morning, but nothing to add to the conversation.

[Vince]

I'll echo Eaglesfan27's sentiments on the post-count explanation. Yesterday, I started work at 5:30 PM PST. The day before, I started work at 11:00 AM PST. That's why I didn't post much. I tend to talk a lot in these games

I'm starting to think that hoopsguy is on the level -- "stupid wolf strategy" combined with a seemingly well-intentioned pass looks good. The item he passed could be useful for determining a target for the wolves, so I don't think he would have given that up if he was a wolf.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Remember that there is no specific seer role, rather two items that confer seer powers -- one multi-use, one single-use. The single-use one only costs three silver, so there may be some of them around at this point.

[hoopsguy]

If you haven't had items since passing one the first night you should have accumulated 3 silver in addition to the one you started with - think I'm doing the math correctly there.

It would be great if a villager is able to get up to six silver and start playing bodyguard. Of course, the danger there is that it would take another two days to accumulate that amount of silver, assuming no items are passed. Then another day to get the purchase. So we would be four days out from being able to use the item. Those are the risk/reward ratios for just about all of these items.

[Vince]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

I wonder if I'll be next now since I got the mask destroyed. The wolves have to believe I'm serious at this point.

What I don't understand is why the wolves haven't taken a shot at you or the three people you indicated yet? I'd imagine that the Smith's Hammer is something they would want to get rid of as quickly as possible -- destroying items seems to only detriment the wolves, unless one of them owns the hammer already, and destroying the mask was just done to keep them on the level. I don't think that is the case, but it's a possibility.

[hoopsguy]

Peregrine - Post #1
you can hold as many Silver Pieces as you want, you are not forced to Pass them

Does this mean that we can pass silver? If so, I think this opens up some interesting possibilities for the villagers (and the wolves). But given the villager numbers advantage, I think this is likely to work in our favor if it is possible.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Vince

What I don't understand is why the wolves haven't taken a shot at you or the three people you indicated yet? I'd imagine that the Smith's Hammer is something they would want to get rid of as quickly as possible -- destroying items seems to only detriment the wolves, unless one of them owns the hammer already, and destroying the mask was just done to keep them on the level. I don't think that is the case, but it's a possibility.

Got me, I figured one of the three or myself would be dead already. I imagine with the mask being destroyed I'm a target for the wolves, that or one of the three are.

My gut feeling? One of the three is a wolf. I've got no proof whatsoever, but that's what I am thinking.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Does this mean that we can pass silver? If so, I think this opens up some interesting possibilities for the villagers (and the wolves). But given the villager numbers advantage, I think this is likely to work in our favor if it is possible.

I've passed silver, I suspect successfully.

[MrBug708]

Do we know for sure, who has any items?

[hoopsguy]

If we can in fact pass silver, then lets see what we can do to try and accumulate it to get some items. The trick here is to avoid helping the wolves accumulate extra silver so they can purchase a book or something else brutal to the villager cause.

If we are able to come up with some agreed upon circle of trust (using the term that was thrown around last night) consisting of maybe three people then we can agree to funnel money to one of those parties. Each person who buys into the 'move silver' concept can pick the person in the group of three they feel most comfortable with and allocate silver to that party.

The two wolves will try to hijack this process, either by attacking it or insinuating themselves within the 'circle'. Obviously it doesn't help them if the villagers are able to pool their resources and purchase villager-friendly items.

So lets see if we can get some kind of group-think around this idea to come up with a system that most of us can get behind. I think the concept makes sense, but really want help on establishing the details.

[Poli]

I absolutely know two people who hold three items.

[hoopsguy]

Mr. Bug Post #780
Do we know for sure, who has any items?

Sure, if you have used the Hood then you know one person/item combo - for one night. After that, you can try to guess whether they would hold the item or pass it.

The Notebook can tell you if the item is in the game. And if the item was moved (passed or stolen) that night then you learn who has it at the end of the evening.

If you have PM'd someone via the Robe or Cloak they may tell you what item they possess. But you don't 'know' in this case.

There may be other items that play into this as well - going from memory in this reply rather than referencing the entire item list.

Edit - to correct made-up words and/or bad spelling

[Superman=#54]

My analysis...

Kingfc22 - Is way under the radar. Has two posts in the last two days according to Raiders Army. Villager with a really good item, or wolf in hiding?

sundvls - He has been accused of being a wolf, but has seemed to dodge the accusations in the last two days because of Fouts and BrianD's revelations.

Blade - He has also been very quiet until today. He has accused RealDeal of being a werewolf. Seems to me to be a villager.

Coffee Warlord - One of the more talkative people. I have a really strong feeling he is a villager.

Henry296 - Seems to be good he did vote for Digamma pretty early yesterday. I think villager.

eaglesfan27 - Was very active yesterday. Wanted digamma to get lynched. Villager.

hoopsguy - The most talkative. He strongly defended digamma. He has admitted that he looks suspect. Wolf or villager?? The way he voted yesterday makes him look like a wolf.

schmidty - Very quiet. I have no idea.

Vince - Most of his posts agreed with the majority: kill digamma, let Fouts die, and I believe BrianD. Villager.

RealDeal - Claims he has the Coat of Arms. The good item for a wolf. A few accusations have been thrown his way. He was the leading canidate yesterday until he revealed he had the Coat of Arms and BrianD revealed what he saw. Wolf or Villager??

Raiders Army - Has done a lot of analysis, looks like most people trust him. Villager.

Mr. Wendsday - Very quiet yesterday, he was one of the last few to join the bandwagon yesterday. Possible wolf or villager with little internet access yesterday?

Mr. Bug - Also joined the bandwagon late yesterday. I have no idea. Seems to ba a villager.

Ardent - He is the master of the circle of trust. Likes to destroy items. He says the items he destroys are for the good of the villagers. Villager until proven otherwise,with destructive tendencies.

Kingfc, Sundvls, and Schmidty to me stand out. One of them possibly could be a werewolf.

[MrBug708]

I didnt join the bandwagon late, I joined the bandwagon early.

[Poli]

I'm not going to hurl any accusations at any of the 3 people that voted for me, though I suspect one to be a wolf. I don't want to give the wolves a shot of figuring out who has the Hammer. If I accused one, that could make the choice who has the Hammer 50 or 100%, depending on if I have the right guy or not.

In fact, I'll go on the record that I won't vote for any of them.

[Coffee Warlord]

Does anyone know if Schmidty is unable to access the boards during work hours? He's been the quietest of us all, just curious if the real world gets in the way.

[Poli]

And yes, I am the master of the circle of trust. That mask being destroyed must have proved that.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

If we can in fact pass silver, then lets see what we can do to try and accumulate it to get some items. The trick here is to avoid helping the wolves accumulate extra silver so they can purchase a book or something else brutal to the villager cause.

If we are able to come up with some agreed upon circle of trust (using the term that was thrown around last night) consisting of maybe three people then we can agree to funnel money to one of those parties. Each person who buys into the 'move silver' concept can pick the person in the group of three they feel most comfortable with and allocate silver to that party.

The two wolves will try to hijack this process, either by attacking it or insinuating themselves within the 'circle'. Obviously it doesn't help them if the villagers are able to pool their resources and purchase villager-friendly items.

So lets see if we can get some kind of group-think around this idea to come up with a system that most of us can get behind. I think the concept makes sense, but really want help on establishing the details.

I can get behind this as well. The problem is that everyone looks innocent at this point. Weighing the risk/reward of the whole thing, this is what could make or break us. Either it will work really well, or we'll get decimated.

That warning aside, I think this is a sound strategy. We can minimize our risk by working in groups of three. That way if a wolf does get extra silver, it's only one, maybe two pieces. We can also leverage our superior numbers at this point and even if they are able to buy something with three silver, we should be able to get at least two items worth three silver each.

[Vince]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

If we can in fact pass silver, then lets see what we can do to try and accumulate it to get some items. The trick here is to avoid helping the wolves accumulate extra silver so they can purchase a book or something else brutal to the villager cause.

If we are able to come up with some agreed upon circle of trust (using the term that was thrown around last night) consisting of maybe three people then we can agree to funnel money to one of those parties. Each person who buys into the 'move silver' concept can pick the person in the group of three they feel most comfortable with and allocate silver to that party.

The two wolves will try to hijack this process, either by attacking it or insinuating themselves within the 'circle'. Obviously it doesn't help them if the villagers are able to pool their resources and purchase villager-friendly items.

So lets see if we can get some kind of group-think around this idea to come up with a system that most of us can get behind. I think the concept makes sense, but really want help on establishing the details.

It's a good idea, but we're going to be shooting in the dark mostly. Anyone we implicate is an immediate suspect for the wolves to kill.

Originally Posted by Ardent

I absolutely know two people who hold three items.

What about the Guise of the Imposter? It hasn't been brought up yet (much), but passed items aren't a sure thing.

[SnDvls]

I will go on record now that I am a villager. I did have the ring of vision. I used it on night two for fouts. I did not want to pass it to someone I didn't know, which in this case I don't know who is who. so I wasted it, also in hopes I'd be passed an item. I hold no item and have only had the ring of vision. I would be willing to play the silver pass game if that is what is agreed upon, but I'm not sure who to trust. I know who I don't trust though. Ardent would have to be at the top of my list in trusting though of those of us left, if he's a wolf he's one hell of a used car sales men.
There are a couple of you out there trying to point a finger at me. mabey trying to deflect off yourself, not sure? I was accused by one person Lathum. What have I done to cause this speculation?

[Vince]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

What have I done to cause this speculation?

Well, not much, really. Which is why even though I got a pretty suspicious feeling from you, I didn't really follow up on it at all. We'll see what happens as this starts to play out.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Vince

What about the Guise of the Imposter? It hasn't been brought up yet (much), but passed items aren't a sure thing.

If he's taken an item, then I would absolutely know two people who hold two items. And I'll be pissed.

[SnDvls]

okay on day 1 I suggested we get a tie so we don't off any villagers. Who were the two tied at that point? Ardent and Fouts. Fouts is confirmed villager. Ardent is believed by me and just about everyone else to be a villager. Why would a wolf want a tie between two villagers? so a wolf would have to take out an extra person? doesn't make sense, the odds are already stacked against them going in.

[Vince]

A wolf loves a tie early in the game -- no voting patterns are established, no roles are revealed...nothing is learned. Even if it were between two villagers, a tie is great for the wolves on the first few days.

[henry296]

Qwikshot had the Notebook which went to Jeff when qwikshot was lynched. Was Jeff able to pass it before he was killed by the wolves?

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Vince

A wolf loves a tie early in the game -- no voting patterns are established, no roles are revealed...nothing is learned. Even if it were between two villagers, a tie is great for the wolves on the first few days.

I think the wolves like it better the last two days as it's been a run away with them. At least on day one you can see votes for many different people and lots of unvoting. Almost none of that on day 2 and only 1 on day 3 (realdeal)

That's what I would want if I was a wolf.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

Ardent would have to be at the top of my list in trusting though of those of us left, if he's a wolf he's one hell of a used car sales men.

I would make a joke about selling you a car...

[SnDvls]

I'm gonna jump first.

vote Superman

reason: day 1 voted Ardent late (assumed human)
day 2 voted fouts (known human)
day 3 No Vote
day 4 shows up and points the finger at me. gotta start somewhere

[MrBug708]

Hoppsguy has been way to quick to defend a wolf and then spent the rest of the time trying to figure out who to lynch.

vote - Hoopsguy