Misc Voting Thread

[CrimsonFox]

I voted for my pot smoking abortion today and I want it NOW!

[Ksyrup]

Cautiously optimistic on the KY Gov race, Beshear seems to be doing slightly better than in 2019. Even where losing, he's losing by less in some smaller rural counties.

[albionmoonlight]

Looking at these numbers so far, I'd much rather be Andy Beshear (D) than Daniel Cameron (R). #KYGOV

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 8, 2023

[albionmoonlight]

I've seen enough: Andy Beshear (D) wins reelection in #KYGOV, defeating Daniel Cameron (R).

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 8, 2023

[Ksyrup]

Yeah, I bet this gets called in the next 30 minutes. I'm seeing it getting called all over Twitter by unofficial election pundits.

[Ksyrup]

This guy has had the best running Twitter commentary so far:

91% in for Fayette (Lexington) and Beshear leads 72-28. That's a very good result for him even if the 44 point margin will probably drop a couple of points with the last precincts. He won by 33 in 2019.

20/x

— Henry Olsen (@henryolsenEPPC) November 8, 2023

[GrantDawg]

It is strongly looking like pot and abortions for everyone in Ohio.

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[Ksyrup]

I'm sure Beshear is going to win, but I think the narrowing of the gap is going to keep the big players from calling it early.

[albionmoonlight]

I wish that we had more right leaning Dems in red states and left leaning GOP in blue states. Politics was better when we had that.

[GrantDawg]

Joe Manchin isn't enough? Missing Joe Lieberman?

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[Ksyrup]

Will be interesting to hear what Cameron says if this race starts getting called and Beshear gives a victory speech because KY enacted an automatic recount if an election is within 1.5% after 2020 (because RIGGED!), so I wonder if he holds off on a concession.

[larrymcg421]

My guess is he will be more aggressive than he was in prosecuting Breona Taylor's killers

[Ksyrup]

I'm waiting to see the final numbers from my county, but in 2019, Beshear won Woodford County 53-45. With 91% reported, Beshear was up 59-41. That's pretty much indicative of how the election has gone.

[molson]

Only 3 things on my ballot but I still treated myself to the traditional voting day fancy waffles and happy hour.

[Ksyrup]

Beshear race finally called by the big guns.

[GrantDawg]

Dave Wasserman has called the Viginia Senate for the Democrats. Once again, openly flaunting the desire to take away abortion rights loses.

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[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I wish that we had more right leaning Dems in red states and left leaning GOP in blue states. Politics was better when we had that.

Beshear isn't really right leaning. He's just a good politician.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

It is strongly looking like pot and abortions for everyone in Ohio.

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I want my abortion and I want it now. Or ....wait...after I smoke this.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by molson

Only 3 things on my ballot but I still treated myself to the traditional voting day fancy waffles and happy hour.

hahahaha that sounds like a beautiful tradition

[CrimsonFox]

How did Andy Beshear win in Kentucky?!?!? Maybe there is hope for Sherrod Brown after all...

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

How did Andy Beshear win in Kentucky?!?!? Maybe there is hope for Sherrod Brown after all...

Having an opponent spend millions on anti-trans ads that most people don't give a shit about helps.

[CrimsonFox]

Wow in Virginia Adams v Rouse 22nd district separated by 1 vote

[GrantDawg]

Republicans can win by hammering economic issues, parental rights, immigration etc. But if they run hard on taking people's rights away, they lose.


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[JPhillips]

KY is very tribal and Beshear is seen as one of us by a lot of people in Eastern KY that will vote for Trump.

[JPhillips]

dola

Now we get to see how the Ohio GOP goes about ignoring the abortion referendum.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

dola

Now we get to see how the Ohio GOP goes about ignoring the abortion referendum.

lol...well that won't happen. They'll keep getting louder about it. Seriously I was actually kind of worried this week. I guess I've been buying into the hype machine. In the suburbs it's lotsa NO signs everywhere. And churches have legit militarized against issues. On most church grounds there were NO signs....on most websites there were big VOTE NO graphics on the front page. Very scary.

That won't really stop. Religious leaders will continue to demand their "flock" do this and now that more laity have more responsibilities in churches, they are even more vocal than priests and ministers, some of whom passive aggressively "suggest" to vote republican. The subtlety is long gone now

[JPhillips]

I mean they'll ignore that they have to follow the law.

[Thomkal]

Just saw a county in KY that Trump won by over 60% against Biden just flipped to the Dems 52-48

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I mean they'll ignore that they have to follow the law.

what? you mean trying to arrest people that get abortions?
actually they'll try to make the supreme court demand it be illegal

[CrimsonFox]

incidently even republicans that are hellfire and brimstone AGAINST abortions get abortions. They just curse at the doctor the whole time they are getting one.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

KY is very tribal and Beshear is seen as one of us by a lot of people in Eastern KY that will vote for Trump.

He handled two major disasters on opposite ends of the state really well, and in the first couple months of his term, he dealt with a pandemic and handled it unbelievably well, without being political even though Cameron sued him for every thing he did to keep people safe from Covid. His updates every day at 5pm became mandatory viewing. He was so empathetic and nice that people started referring to him as howdy doody. No one even refers to him as Governor Beshear - it's just Andy.

It would have been a travesty if he hadn't won a second term because he absolutely earned it on the merits.

[Ksyrup]

Also, it's not surprising that while all the other GOPers easily won their KY statewide races, the one who did the best was the Secretary of State (Michael Adams) who worked hand-in-hand with Beshear to increase access to voting for 2020. Now, I'm sure part of the reason GOPers didn't throw a fit like they did in other states is because there was no chance KY was flipping blue or even purple, but Adams was out in the open about being bipartisan on voting access and even beat back a primary challenge from an election denier by shooting down conspiracy theories.

It's pretty clear that trying to bring back the Covid issue was also a loser for GOPers and that Adams benefitted from a good relationship with Beshear.

[SirFozzie]

Our fiend Rick Santorum is having a very big sad on Newsmax, as he thinks voters voting on things is no way to run things, and it's unfair that Democrats put legal weed and keeping abortions legal on Ohio's ballot, as they are "Very sexy things"

https://twitter.com/KailiJoy/status/1722092778266546587

[CrimsonFox]

I can't BELIEVE that Ohio was the only state that put the abortion thing on the ballot. All 50 states should have done that.

But whoa....just think if ALL battleground states put it on the ballot next year. What a blue push that'll cause.

[CrimsonFox]

here's an article answering my question

https://kffhealthnews.org/news/artic...024-elections/

[CrimsonFox]

Virginia elects first openly transgender state senator
Gary Grumbach

Virginia Democratic Del. Danica Roem is projected to win her election to the Virginia state Senate, according to an Associated Press race call. Roem will become the state’s first openly transgender state senator.

.

[Edward64]

So when will this happen in GA?

Voters in Ohio will approve a ballot measure that will create a new law legalizing and regulating recreational marijuana, CNN projects.

The ballot measure required a simple majority to be adopted.

The measure will legalize and regulate the cultivation, possession, sale, purchase and use of marijuana for adults 21 years and older. It will also tax marijuana sales and use that money to fund several programs, including a “cannabis social equity and jobs program.”

Ohio will become the 24th state to legalize recreational marijuana.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

So when will this happen in GA?

It is much harder to get referendums in Georgia. It has to be done through the state legislature, which is very Republican. They have been trying to get a casino gambling one on the ballot for decades. They did finally get the medical marijuana one passed a few years ago and they are just now getting all of that set up. It is so restrictive that is basically for three conditions and allows less than 5% THC oil. You will be able to get it a any pharmacy that is not a national chain (CVS and Walgreens weren't willing to risk the possible Federal problems).

[Edward64]

So, guess you are telling me not in our lifetime.

Closest legal in MO and VA. Hmmm, I went hunting in VA a couple years ago, should have checked.

[GrantDawg]

I still don't buy this translates to "Biden wins in a landslide" next year. Like the Beshear win:

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Just saw a county in KY that Trump won by over 60% against Biden just flipped to the Dems 52-48

Yes, but those same counties still voted Republican by 60%+ on every other state race. Kentucky isn't even close to "flipping blue", they can just get on board with a great candidate or reject a really bad one.
I'm afraid Biden is not a "great candidate", and while Trump is still a really bad one there seems to be more and more like "just sit this one out" is going to skew the next election.

[albionmoonlight]

So here's my question:

The evangelical right is very extreme anti-abortion. No medical exceptions, etc. because they can be "abused," etc.

Being extreme anti-abortion is clearly a political loser for the GOP. Though I suspect that a less extreme anti-abortion stance (exceptions for rape, medical necessity, etc.) would not be as bad.

So GOP politicians have an incentive to either moderate their stance and/or run away from the issue.

My question: Will the evangelical right let them? On the one hand, this is THE issue for a lot of them. On the other hand, is it really? Or will they be willing to let the GOP slide because they care more about being anti-woke than about abortion?

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

So here's my question:

The evangelical right is very extreme anti-abortion. No medical exceptions, etc. because they can be "abused," etc.

Being extreme anti-abortion is clearly a political loser for the GOP. Though I suspect that a less extreme anti-abortion stance (exceptions for rape, medical necessity, etc.) would not be as bad.

So GOP politicians have an incentive to either moderate their stance and/or run away from the issue.

My question: Will the evangelical right let them? On the one hand, this is THE issue for a lot of them. On the other hand, is it really? Or will they be willing to let the GOP slide because they care more about being anti-woke than about abortion?

No. Because it all ties to religion. Religion has made abortion evil and a mortal sin and they order people not to support it...so people follow that. Politicians included.

[Kodos]

At this point, pro-choice ballot initiatives in lots of states seem like our best hope next year for good turnout on the Democrat side.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

No. Because it all ties to religion. Religion has made abortion evil and a mortal sin and they order people not to support it...so people follow that. Politicians included.

Exactly. What Republicans have to do is thread the needle. You play to that hard-core anti-abortion side as quietly as you possibly can and try to keep focus on inflation or parental rights. It is much harder to do now because those groups really want you to push the issue front and center. They totally believe that they are losing these elections because they haven't gotten their message out enough, yet in reality the more loudly they get their message out the more they lose. The Far Right holding Republican's feet to the fire to be as extreme as possible on abortion is really the greatest gift they can give Democrats.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Kentucky isn't even close to "flipping blue", they can just get on board with a great candidate or reject a really bad one.

Agreed. Beshear has been such a good governor that Cameron was forced to run a national campaign against him. Now, it's politics 101 to try to tie your opponent to an unpopular party and especially president, but that's all Cameron did, or could do. And it failed miserably...against Beshear. But believe me, I sat through too many political ads from all the candidates, and while none of the other GOP statewide candidates had Trump's specific endorsement, they ALL tied themselves closely to him (although maybe not the SOS Adams, who I mentioned above). And they all won easily.

This was not a repudiation of Trump, by any means. But Beshear chipped away at the margins for, I'm guessing, a variety of reasons - pro-abortion, Covid response, tornado and flood response, and generally being a nice, empathetic guy who purposely spoke to and for all Kentuckians. And Kentuckians value that coming from a homegrown person everyone acknowledges is genuine. Heck, even in the last couple of weeks, Cameron put out an ad that started with him saying, "Andy Beshear seems like a nice enough guy, but ..." That's the story of Beshear. Trump will probably win KY by 25-35% again (sadly) in 2024. And Cameron will likely run for (and win) McConnell's seat in 2026.

Also, the Trump stuff aside, I don't think Cameron was a bad GOP candidate at all. He was miles better than Matt Bevin. And yet he underperformed Bevin by quite a bit. I believe that had more to do with Beshear than Cameron.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Exactly. What Republicans have to do is thread the needle. You play to that hard-core anti-abortion side as quietly as you possibly can and try to keep focus on inflation or parental rights. It is much harder to do now because those groups really want you to push the issue front and center. They totally believe that they are losing these elections because they haven't gotten their message out enough, yet in reality the more loudly they get their message out the more they lose. The Far Right holding Republican's feet to the fire to be as extreme as possible on abortion is really the greatest gift they can give Democrats.

I don't know if the ad that ran in KY ever got national play, but Beshear or a PAC or whatever ran an ad of a girl who was raped by her stepfather at 12 years old and basically challenged Cameron directly on camera that he would have forced her to carry it to term . Very effective ad.

Cameron responded with this message, over and over - "If the legislature brings me a bill with exception for rape, incest and harm to the mother, I would sign it." That's all he would say. What he meant by that was, "The GOP has a supermajority in the KY legislature, so they would never bring me a bill like this to sign, but if in some completely unlikely scenario it happened, I would sign it."

He basically threaded the needle between pretending to soften his stance while actually saying nothing and essentially committing to preserving the status quo, given the reality of the legislature's makeup. I don't know how that message played to every day Kentuckians - if they were fooled by it - but to me, it read like a lawyer-scripted statement from an athlete who got arrested for domestic violence or suspended for PEDs.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I don't know if the ad that ran in KY ever got national play, but Beshear or a PAC or whatever ran an ad of a girl who was raped by her stepfather at 12 years old and basically challenged Cameron directly on camera that he would have forced her to carry it to term . Very effective ad.

Cameron responded with this message, over and over - "If the legislature brings me a bill with exception for rape, incest and harm to the mother, I would sign it." That's all he would say. What he meant by that was, "The GOP has a supermajority in the KY legislature, so they would never bring me a bill like this to sign, but if in some completely unlikely scenario it happened, I would sign it."

He basically threaded the needle between pretending to soften his stance while actually saying nothing and essentially committing to preserving the status quo, given the reality of the legislature's makeup. I don't know how that message played to every day Kentuckians - if they were fooled by it - but to me, it read like a lawyer-scripted statement from an athlete who got arrested for domestic violence or suspended for PEDs.

I saw that ad. That's the ad every Democrat needs to use in the next election. You could also do ads with women who would have died without medically necessary abortions, preferably with her children who would not exist if she did die. Hit home the consequences of their extreme positions.

[JPhillips]

I don't think Beshear or Pressley is predictive for 2024, but the continuing relevance of abortion absolutely is. So long as the GOP sends out candidates vocally promoting restrictive abortion policies, the Dems are going to do well. I think a 15 week ban would be good politics for the GOP, but anything more restrictive is going to drive Dem turnout and swing female undecideds to the Dems.

In a time when the GOP should be at it's highest, they continue to anchor themselves to the two most unpopular things in politics, Trump and abortion bans.

[Swaggs]

Pennsylvania results were also good for democrats. There was a Supreme Court vacancy that went to the dems by a comfortable margin and several of the more local, swing elections (mostly judgeships) went to the dems. These are the types of elections that the GOP usually win in non-presidential years.

Seeing results like this in swingy PA and in VA, where the Dems picked up seats in both the house and senate, is pretty surprising.

[albionmoonlight]

Good quote I saw that sums up a lot, I think:

"Parents weren’t thrilled with COVID school closures but once the Kitty Litter Boxes in classrooms freaks started banning books the pendulum swung back hard."