WW XCV: Land of the Role Reveals GAME OVER

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Also, if/when PB comes on - can you tell us if you had a successful block last night? The "real BG" would not be able to do so.



Ideally, I would like to be in a position where we know if the cultist turned last night or if we got a block. PB will know, the real BG will not, and wolves + cultist will know if they added a man.

If PB can't shed light on this then I think we have to assume that the cultist got picked up.

Hey Hoops,

I think I said it earlier but just in case. I got no notification of a block. HOWEVER, there is also apparently one wolf that when blocked, doesn't show up as being blocked. I am assuming cultist though, which makes me lean towards a couple people as possible lynches today.

See, I went back and re-read the roles like I said I would.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Tough Wolf
Starting: Normal wolf powers, except if performing the night attack the bodyguard will never learn if a block is successful.
If Believed: The first time the Tough Wolf is lynched or killed the Tough Wolf will survive. If lynched or killed a second time, the Tough Wolf will die.

This is him, so we may not even know.

[PurdueBrad]

I have lunch duty but I think I may present several lynch candidates for discussion afterwards. Sorry not doing it first but it has been pretty hectic.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Hey Hoops,

I think I said it earlier but just in case. I got no notification of a block. HOWEVER, there is also apparently one wolf that when blocked, doesn't show up as being blocked. I am assuming cultist though, which makes me lean towards a couple people as possible lynches today.

See, I went back and re-read the roles like I said I would.

It's also possible the real body guard blocked a wolf and DID get a confirmed block.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, just to play some devils advocate:

Dubb - presumed Duke, no seer scan to date? Now in position to clear others as believed seer

Saldana - cleared by Dubb, seems candidate to be the brutal now

PB - claimed seer, has not been countered (rules suggest that there would also be a fake seer, at very least). Has cleared Chief and Tyrith

CR - cleared by PB on N1

Tyrith - cleared by PB on N2


With the structure of this game, we have a ton of variables that should at least be getting some discussion in terms of our COT.
1.) Assuming PB = good then anyone cleared by him could still be either cultist or cunning
2.) Assuming Dubb = good then anyone cleared by him could still be cultist
3.) While the publishing of a COT is generally a good thing, the ramifications of a blown COT are greater here than just about any other game I've played since we are assigning additional role powers to the cleared.

I just want to make sure we understand our chains of trust so we can course-correct quickly if our list isn't as good as we would like.

Anyone Dubb clears is not the cultist as the rules state the believed seer can find the cultist.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

Anyone Dubb clears is not the cultist as the rules state the believed seer can find the cultist.

Read it again. The Cultist would show up as a villager.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Racer

It's also possible the real body guard blocked a wolf and DID get a confirmed block.

By the way, I'm not hinting at anything here. I'm not the real bodyguard.

[hoopsguy]

Trust Lists:

High - PB (close to making this a game assumption, as in 'if he = wolf then we are screwed')

Pretty High - Dubb (still would like to see a scan on him at some point)

Moderately High - Saldana (can't be cunning if Dubb = good), Tyrith (more recent scan than Chief, which may be important with potential cultist conversion), Chief Rum

No real opinion at all - NTN, Telle, Lathum (this is weird for D3), Schmidty

Confused by - Danny (thinking either roled villager or wolf at the moment, but doesn't seem to be playing his 'usual' game to me)

Slight distrust - Lerri, USFL, Racer. All three of those are kind of jumbled for me after yesterday. Going to review posts from yesterday to work on some kind of separation and/or better categorization of these guys.


Hmm, it felt like we had more players than this. I'm really thinking that our trust list is somehow busted. The list at the top feels a little bit "too good to be true" to me. Maybe random.org really liked us, but our voting patterns have been doing their best to look a gift horse in the mouth ... but I kind of doubt it.

[lerriuqs]

The seer roles...

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Roles
Seer
Starting: The player may choose one person a night to scan. The player will learn if that person is a wolf or villager (except in the case of the cunning wolf).
If Believed: Will also gain the starting seer abilities, if they don't already have them. Will learn that the cunning wolf is a wolf if that person is scanned. May also once scan a believed person and learn their actual role.

False Seer
Starting: Will think they are the seer. If they scan the actual seer, it will show that person as a villager. For all other players, including the cunning wolf, there is a % chance that the person will show up as a wolf. That percentage will match the number of wolves left in the game (i.e. if there are 4 wolves left out of 10 players, there is a 40% chance a scanned player will show-up as a wolf). If this person becomes the believed seer, they will gain the powers of a believed seer, except the cunning wolf will show up as a villager, and all future scans will be accurate (except in the case of the cunning wolf), even if the actual seer dies. This role may not be claimed.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

Anyone Dubb clears is not the cultist as the rules state the believed seer can find the cultist.

I'm pretty sure that Dubb can find the cunning but not the cultist.

Seer
Starting: The player may choose one person a night to scan. The player will learn if that person is a wolf or villager (except in the case of the cunning wolf).
If Believed: Will also gain the starting seer abilities, if they don't already have them. Will learn that the cunning wolf is a wolf if that person is scanned. May also once scan a believed person and learn their actual role.

No mention of cultist in there for either seer, which makes sense because the cultist is actually a villager.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Racer

Read it again. The Cultist would show up as a villager.

Not to the believed seer.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Racer

It's also possible the real body guard blocked a wolf and DID get a confirmed block.

Possible he got a block, but he would not know. Only the believed would know, based on my reading of the rules.

Starting: May choose a person each night to protect from a wolf kill. May protect the same person only once in a three night period. Does not learn if their guarding is successful or not.
If Believed: Will also gain the starting bodyguard abilities, if they don't already have them. Will learn if they successfully guarded a person. May protect the same person two nights in a row, one time, except himself.

[lerriuqs]

Duh...I can't read today...got them confused sorry guys...

[hoopsguy]

No worries, it is good to have the conversation in the thread so we are all on the same page and can ask the moderator for clarification when needed.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Possible he got a block, but he would not know. Only the believed would know, based on my reading of the rules.

Ah, my bad.

[hoopsguy]

Anyway, I don't have myself on my own trust list. Obviously everyone else can slot me where they think it is appropriate.

[Lathum]

Just woke up. Mixed results about the night. I think it is good that our COT is growing, but I think we b=need to scan some of the people with questionable voting records.

With the info today I see myself looking at one of those people.

[lerriuqs]

So if I'm clear on the strategy - unless the seers find a wolf tonight, we lynch Saldana tomorrow and get a wolf right? And then repeat until the Brutal is dead?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

BK- Sorry if this is a question I should assume I know the answer to but if the wolves attack the cultist on the same night that we choose to scan that person, would we get the results from before (villager) or after (wolf) that attack?

It's unknown.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Trust Lists:

High - PB (close to making this a game assumption, as in 'if he = wolf then we are screwed')

Pretty High - Dubb (still would like to see a scan on him at some point)

Moderately High - Saldana (can't be cunning if Dubb = good), Tyrith (more recent scan than Chief, which may be important with potential cultist conversion), Chief Rum

No real opinion at all - NTN, Telle, Lathum (this is weird for D3), Schmidty

Confused by - Danny (thinking either roled villager or wolf at the moment, but doesn't seem to be playing his 'usual' game to me)

Slight distrust - Lerri, USFL, Racer. All three of those are kind of jumbled for me after yesterday. Going to review posts from yesterday to work on some kind of separation and/or better categorization of these guys.


Hmm, it felt like we had more players than this. I'm really thinking that our trust list is somehow busted. The list at the top feels a little bit "too good to be true" to me. Maybe random.org really liked us, but our voting patterns have been doing their best to look a gift horse in the mouth ... but I kind of doubt it.

Yeah, I probably should be on the slight distrust list. I'm one of the few people still alive who voted for Daddy Torgo that hasn't been cleared by somebody (Danny and Lerriuqs being the others). I've also played in such a way that might seem cultist.
- placing a single vote on Schmidty
-pushing to wait to lynch Martin until there was no kill so him turning up clean looks slightly bad for me
-talking about the cultist role more then anyone else.

Two of those three can also be said for Chief Rum though. I'm not actually the cultist though (or a converted wolf if the cultist was converted last night).

[Telle]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

So if I'm clear on the strategy - unless the seers find a wolf tonight, we lynch Saldana tomorrow and get a wolf right? And then repeat until the Brutal is dead?

Hrrrmm.. I was thinking that if saldana got night killed that he'd take a wolf with him, but re-reading the rules that's not right. I'm not sure we're in a position yet to need to be trading 1-for-1 with wolves and villagers. Perhaps there's a better role for him to take?

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Telle

Hrrrmm.. I was thinking that if saldana got night killed that he'd take a wolf with him, but re-reading the rules that's not right. I'm not sure we're in a position yet to need to be trading 1-for-1 with wolves and villagers. Perhaps there's a better role for him to take?

Better now than when we're running out of villagers isn't it?

[Telle]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

Better now than when we're running out of villagers isn't it?

I'm just not sure purposely sacrificing villagers is the way to go.

What about the Vengeful Wolf role? Then we'd have someone in the CoT that we don't have to worry about getting night killed.

[hoopsguy]

I think that pretty much lies with Saldana - if he is willing to get swapped 1:1 for a wolf then I'm willing to vote him into the spot. The question arises of when do we use it?

If we go 0-2 tomorrow then do we take it tomorrow to ensure a 1-2?
Right now we have 14 players left, with a ratio of either 9-5 or 10-4 (maybe 11-3 if you assume a block last night and three starting wolves + cultist, but that seems optimistic).

9-5 + (0-2) = 7-5 + (1-2) = 5-4 heading into Day 5. Only gives us benefit of not getting skunked, but I would like to think with two seers that we are pulling at least one wolf today + tomorrow.

10-4 + (0-2) = 8-4 + (1-2) = 6-3 heading into Day 5. Again, I would like to think that we are getting a wolf on our own over the next two days.

Anyway, I guess after looking at the numbers I'm fine with putting Saldana in another role or letting him stay right where he is so he could act as a potential fail-safe for Day 4.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Telle

I'm just not sure purposely sacrificing villagers is the way to go.

What about the Vengeful Wolf role? Then we'd have someone in the CoT that we don't have to worry about getting night killed.

If we're going to assign that role to somebody, I think it would be best to assign it to whoever the other seer is.

That would do a couple of things:

1.) Provide temporary not bodyguard protection for one of our seers
2.) Build a bigger CoT (with at least PurdueBrad and the other seer in it. We would know both were telling to the truth if a 3rd person didn't claim to be the seer. We would also know who everyone had scanned).

[hoopsguy]

Well, Dubb cannot be believed into that role because he is already believed as a seer.

So that would mean the other seer (assuming he is in the game) would need to come forward in order to take on the brutal wolf role. And we would have to believe them enough to want to assign that role to them.

I think that is pretty high risk/reward. Don't the wolves know which roles are in the game? Hmm, went back to review the rules and saw this:

[IMG]file:///C:/Users/cprewitt/AppData/Local/Temp/moz-screenshot.jpg[/IMG]Anything else?
The wolves will either know one villager role not present in the game or that all villager roles are present in the game.

Given the number of vanilla villagers that we've seen so far I'm guessing that not all listed villager roles are in the game. If they know that "false seer" is not in the game then they can step up and grab that role uncontested.

Color me nervous about this plan of attack.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Racer

Two of those three can also be said for Chief Rum though. I'm not actually the cultist though (or a converted wolf if the cultist was converted last night).

True, but the key part is that I have been scanned. We still need to verify the allegiance of said seer and whether he's the real or fake seer, but fact is, he read me as good (which is true, but you guys know I wouldn't say otherwise were I a wolf).

[Racer]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Well, Dubb cannot be believed into that role because he is already believed as a seer.

So that would mean the other seer (assuming he is in the game) would need to come forward in order to take on the brutal wolf role. And we would have to believe them enough to want to assign that role to them.

I think that is pretty high risk/reward. Don't the wolves know which roles are in the game? Hmm, went back to review the rules and saw this:


Given the number of vanilla villagers that we've seen so far I'm guessing that not all listed villager roles are in the game. If they know that "false seer" is not in the game then they can step up and grab that role uncontested.

Color me nervous about this plan of attack.

Okay, I guess I didn't read the rules very closely (the part about the wolves knowing what roles are in the game). I agree that my plan is heavily flawed then.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

True, but the key part is that I have been scanned. We still need to verify the allegiance of said seer and whether he's the real or fake seer, but fact is, he read me as good (which is true, but you guys know I wouldn't say otherwise were I a wolf).

Yeah, I wasn't saying you were a wolf when you were scanned, but I was suggesting you could have been a cultist. If you were the cultist, you would have come up as a villager.

[Chief Rum]

Secondary discussion for the village: how many roles are in the game (from the start, not talking believed)? And which ones? I believe it states in the rules that not all roles will be present in the game. We may want to consider how far that was likely to go, given our wolf number assumptions. We're already talking a Tough Wolf consideration with last night's missing kill/block info. Well, that's pretty deep into the Wolf roles. Did BK go that far?

If I had to guess, I think the wolves got most of their roles (including cultist), the villagers only got the most basic, probably with a fake seer (so, BG, seer, fake seer, duke, but no manic, tough villager, etc.). I think he would set it up this way for balance, since by and large, the village will control the believed roles.

Something to chew on, though.

[PurdueBrad]

The places I am most willing to look today:

Lerriuqs and USFL- Both give us some decent voting information but as we learned from last game, wolves are usually the best voters and villagers the worst so I'm slightly leaning away from this.

Hoops and Lathum- We know how much I always distrust Hoops. And Lathum has played a very non-Lathum game thus far.

Telle and CR- I have trouble reading Telle and am probably colored by last game when she was a wolf. CR could've been the cultist (and wouldn't necessarily be surprised) so it's a possibility.

I've paired them up because I think as pairs, they make interesting plays (but it also doesn't mean if A is bad, B is good for vice versa).

The info group of lerriuqs/Tecmo does net us some more voting data.

The veteran group of Hoops/Lathum are both incredibly valuable as villagers but frankly, very scary as wolves.

The wild card group is just that, a complete mystery. The only reason I'm thinking CR could've been the cultist is that by making him day 1 seer, he would eventually have drawn an attack when he wasn't guarded (like last night).

So yeah, don't know if that helps at all but if you have any reads on any of those players, throw them out there.

[PurdueBrad]

Also, just because I don't know how the rest of the day will go:

BG guards dubb tonight

I self-protect (hehe, I could make some dirty jokes)

Dubb scans his list, I scan mine

I recommend that the other 'seer' scans Saldana to see if they get the same result as dubb, who's scans we know are right. I'm not doubting dubb, trying to verify which seer is real.

[Chief Rum]

Shouldn't there be at least one scan of dubb? I lean heavily toward him being who he says he is, of course, but we can't really attach serious meaning to his scans without it. With it, we can be absolutely clear on his scans, without reservation.

PB, is your connecting me to Telle purely a hypothetical based on your own arbitrary construct of criteria, or do you have in game reasons, like similar votes or posts or something like that? Same question with hoop/Lathum. I think it's just the former, but I felt it was unclear in your post. As someone who is completely unsure of Telle, I'm not particularly pleased to be linked with her at the moment if it is without cause.

If it is with cause, well, then, rail away.

[hoopsguy]

PB, lets make sure when you are planning the guarding stuff that you are factoring for three days for the real bodyguard and carefully considering your own personal double-up.

Bodyguard
Starting: May choose a person each night to protect from a wolf kill. May protect the same person only once in a three night period. Does not learn if their guarding is successful or not.
If Believed: Will also gain the starting bodyguard abilities, if they don't already have them. Will learn if they successfully guarded a person. May protect the same person two nights in a row, one time, except himself.

I'm not sure if this has been a problem yet, but it could start to be as we get deeper into the game.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Shouldn't there be at least one scan of dubb? I lean heavily toward him being who he says he is, of course, but we can't really attach serious meaning to his scans without it. With it, we can be absolutely clear on his scans, without reservation.

PB, is your connecting me to Telle purely a hypothetical based on your own arbitrary construct of criteria, or do you have in game reasons, like similar votes or posts or something like that? Same question with hoop/Lathum. I think it's just the former, but I felt it was unclear in your post. As someone who is completely unsure of Telle, I'm not particularly pleased to be linked with her at the moment if it is without cause.

If it is with cause, well, then, rail away.

I think the only way he isn't who he says he is if the Duke role isn't in the game. If it isn't, we're probably screwed.

[Racer]

Never mind, it has to be in the game since a tie was broken.

[lerriuqs]

Seems to me that something is going horribly wrong, but I don't know what...

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Racer

Never mind, it has to be in the game since a tie was broken.

The tie is also broken by the last vote. Which is also DT...

[Lathum]

PB, I haven't been able to pay very close attention to this game and to be honest alot of it has gone over my head.

Like I said earlier, I am sure there are people who would testify it takes me some time to get going in more complex games and I just haven't had that kind of time between being away and the quarter winding down at school.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

The places I am most willing to look today:

Lerriuqs and USFL- Both give us some decent voting information but as we learned from last game, wolves are usually the best voters and villagers the worst so I'm slightly leaning away from this.

Hoops and Lathum- We know how much I always distrust Hoops. And Lathum has played a very non-Lathum game thus far.

Telle and CR- I have trouble reading Telle and am probably colored by last game when she was a wolf. CR could've been the cultist (and wouldn't necessarily be surprised) so it's a possibility.

I've paired them up because I think as pairs, they make interesting plays (but it also doesn't mean if A is bad, B is good for vice versa).

The info group of lerriuqs/Tecmo does net us some more voting data.

The veteran group of Hoops/Lathum are both incredibly valuable as villagers but frankly, very scary as wolves.

The wild card group is just that, a complete mystery. The only reason I'm thinking CR could've been the cultist is that by making him day 1 seer, he would eventually have drawn an attack when he wasn't guarded (like last night).

So yeah, don't know if that helps at all but if you have any reads on any of those players, throw them out there.

I believe Telle is tied with the fewest posts of any living player with USFL. She has struck me as very UTR so far.

[Lathum]

Vote Racer

He has gone all villager with his votes and now it seems today he is either trying to put a plan in place that is bad for us and he has also thrown out stuff that isn't accurate.

My vote is subject to change barring further info, but we need to get started and this seems like a good spot

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Racer

I think the only way he isn't who he says he is if the Duke role isn't in the game. If it isn't, we're probably screwed.

Considering I just surmised a few posts back about the likelihood that BK didn't give the village many roles, and the further submission that the wolves likely know what roles are present in the game, I think we should seriously consider the possibility that the Duke role is not in the game. dubb as a wolf knowing this would easily be able to "reveal" as the Duke if he knew no one in the game could countermand him.

Look, it's a serious stretch, and I acknowledge that, but it goes back to what level of trust we can put into these scans. I see the scenario above as entirely possible, even a likely play if the Duke's not in the game. Getting a scan to be sure would remove this and give us almost absolute clearance on dubb's scans.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Vote Racer

He has gone all villager with his votes and now it seems today he is either trying to put a plan in place that is bad for us and he has also thrown out stuff that isn't accurate.

My vote is subject to change barring further info, but we need to get started and this seems like a good spot

USFL is a villager? How do you know that?

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Considering I just surmised a few posts back about the likelihood that BK didn't give the village many roles, and the further submission that the wolves likely know what roles are present in the game, I think we should seriously consider the possibility that the Duke role is not in the game. dubb as a wolf knowing this would easily be able to "reveal" as the Duke if he knew no one in the game could countermand him.

Look, it's a serious stretch, and I acknowledge that, but it goes back to what level of trust we can put into these scans. I see the scenario above as entirely possible, even a likely play if the Duke's not in the game. Getting a scan to be sure would remove this and give us almost absolute clearance on dubb's scans.

Agreed - it also tells us whether we need to look at the votes from Day on how they got it down to a tie. Especially with Dubb being a very late vote on DT...

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Racer

Never mind, it has to be in the game since a tie was broken.

I said this yesterday a time or two, but few seem to acknowledge it. The tiebreakers don't end with the Duke. DT would have been lynched by the second tiebreaker as well, as he received the last vote among the tied candidates. BTW, the final vote was set to be dubb's before the Danny thing. I forget how the Danny vote ended up, but I know at some point, it was dubb's vote that was last on DT.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

Agreed - it also tells us whether we need to look at the votes from Day on how they got it down to a tie. Especially with Dubb being a very late vote on DT...

If we were going to check Dubb's story as Duke, I think it'd be best we go after Danny (since he currently doesn't have a believed role). He's the one who pushed for the tie vote thing. If Dubb is a wolf, then Danny probably is as well.

[PurdueBrad]

Those of you that commented on stuff so far, thanks a ton. I've had a busy day and a really long post I just made disappeared so I'll post it later. I need to teach for a bit.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Racer

If we were going to check Dubb's story as Duke, I think it'd be best we go after Danny (since he currently doesn't have a believed role). He's the one who pushed for the tie vote thing. If Dubb is a wolf, then Danny probably is as well.

Danny was actually fighting the tie and wanted to test Dubb's duke story. If Dubb's a wolf, Danny isn't.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Racer

USFL is a villager? How do you know that?

my bad, I had you confused with Tyrith

Unvote Racer

[hoopsguy]

Chief, I'm in agreement that a scan on Dubb would make a lot of sense. It would help me feel a lot better about our trust list, which at the moment has me pretty uneasy.

I know how it got where it is, but it feels too big (5 out of 13) with too many good players on it in a game where we aren't actually lynching any wolves.