Werewolf IX: Village of the Damned

[Vince]

Ardent passed Jeff a silver piece on the first day -- but I think it was randomly distributed, not given to the wolves.

[Poli]

I had passed Jeff silver since he was the first to unvote me on day 1. I also figured the king was a villager.

I'm still suspicious of Kingfc22. Because of that, and due to having a compressed schedule today:

Vote kingfc22.

My circle of trust includes eagles and RA. The Hammer man is out.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Wolves now have the Robe with Henry dying.

Negative. He passed it. And I know to who.

[Vince]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Negative. He passed it. And I know to who.

So you are the notebook man? Between you and Bug, we've got an awful lot of "I know xxx" going around.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Vince

So you are the notebook man? Between you and Bug, we've got an awful lot of "I know xxx" going around.

No. Henry was talking to me yesterday. He told me who he was passing it to.

[hoopsguy]

Here are some of the areas where Raiders has shown up on my radar - have post numbers for some of them.

During the Fouts/Lathum Day 2 saga he came out early saying something didn't feel right. If he is a wolf then he knows both are villagers and this is an opportunity for him to build credibility by appearing to want to gather all the facts. He originally votes for Lathum, but then flip-flops to Fouts in Post #423.

He then states again, in post #449, that something doesn't seem right. Soothsayer or wolf?

Post #502 - throws out RealDeal/Fouts as suspects. We now know that Fouts was a villager.

Post #503 - Adds SunDvls as another suspect. SunDvls was identified by Mr. Wednesday this morning as a villager

Post #552 - Says Digamma's responses seem strange, but not casting an early vote for the wolf. If a wolf, nice job hedging bets here

Post #632 - Sees that I'm on an island trying to defend Digamma, starts smear campaign on me by asking me as a friend to back away. Knows that Digamma is dead at this point

Post #634 - Votes for Digamma, 10th man on

Post #638 - Points out Kingfc as bandwagon guy when King is 11th man on

Post #641 - Says I'm looking like wolf because I won't let the Digamma thing go, just like X-Com when I was converted

Post #678 - Is Henry a wolf? Nope, another dead villager

Post #685 - Responds to my PM conversations, suggesting that since Henry was talking with both Digamma and him with Robe that perhaps he is a wolf?

Post #737 - Highlights 3 people as more frequent posters on Digamma day: me, Vince, and Eagles. Eagles cast early vote for Digamma (when it mattered) and I have tended to trust Vince early in the game.

Those are some of the posts in the first 1,000 that got me suspicious of Raiders. I recognize that a similar case can be built for several people who have posted regularly in this thread. But I did want to supply some rationale for why I suspected Raiders yesterday (and still do today).

[Raiders Army]

For the record:

Vince, I never claimed I had the robe. I guess I was a little misleading when I said I used the robe to communicate. Actually, henry used the robe to communicate with me.

Hoops, I didn't get digamma's silver. I thought if I posted first I would get it.

[hoopsguy]

Ardent, if the Hammer guy is not in your circle then I would ask you to reveal him. Force him to pass the hammer to someone tonight. Make him respond why he did not destroy an item last night that you thought deserved to be destroyed.

I understand that if we were to lynch him we would lose the hammer - the villagers would have to factor this into any decision process with voting today.

He would have to pass the hammer tonight if he is a villager in order to keep the item in the game. If the item you passed last night should have been destoyed then I don't want this guy continuing to hold this item anyways.

[Raiders Army]

Actually hoops, I think it was post #737 that made you suspicious of me because I put your name in red. Heh heh.

To repeat once again, I think that it could've been an indicator, not that an increase in posts was damning. (BTW, counting up those posts wasn't fun)

Some analysis: RealDeal just seems too....arrogant and loud to be a wolf. Let's make the hypothesis that he's a human, which certainly seems plausible. Then, we know for a fact that Blade was a human. That means the wolves yesterday could vote for anyone they wanted to and probably spread out their votes. Also, the wolves could use the strategy of lying low and let us take each other out.

My short list of candidates are the ones who have "flown under the radar" the past couple of days. Again, this is all predicated on RealDeal being human.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Ardent, if the Hammer guy is not in your circle then I would ask you to reveal him. Force him to pass the hammer to someone tonight. Make him respond why he did not destroy an item last night that you thought deserved to be destroyed.

I understand that if we were to lynch him we would lose the hammer - the villagers would have to factor this into any decision process with voting today.

He would have to pass the hammer tonight if he is a villager in order to keep the item in the game. If the item you passed last night should have been destoyed then I don't want this guy continuing to hold this item anyways.

I like this idea, but I need to think it over first. I want to look over all the items and try to figure out what possibilities are out there for him not to destroy it.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

My short list of candidates are the ones who have "flown under the radar" the past couple of days. Again, this is all predicated on RealDeal being human.

That's one reason I suspect kingfc22.

[hoopsguy]

The "money trail" posts also indicate that for the wolves to have accumulated the six silver that the other two wolves must not have held items. Which means that the person who stole the amulet from Fouts was not a wolf. Or that I'm missing some revenues in the "money trail" post.

Was anyone passing silver to other players in the first two nights?

If a villager has been holding the amulet then it would be really helpful if they would chime in and clear the people they have looked at earlier. Yes that means you have to pass the amulet. Yes, I understand that one of the people viewed earlier could have been converted into a sorcerer last night. But we don't have much info to work with right now. Without more information bubbling up I think RealDeal is going to be lynched today and I want to have better reasons for voting for someone than those I have for him right now.

[henry296]

Good luck to fellow villagers. I am a little surprised that I was targeted last night but it might be ok since I was not going to be able to be active on Saturday.

I want to add something on the silver debate, but I know I can't.

[Coffee Warlord]

Alright, I'll out myself. I've had the Hammer every night but the first night. It was passed to me, and I've hung onto it the entire game. AE can easily corroborate this fact.

Anyway, there's a very simple reason I didn't destroy anything last night. The item I was passed was the Potion. I saw no need to destroy that, so I passed it off to someone I trust. Plain and simple.

I've been waiting to out myself as the Hammer-bearer until I didn't have any items that would make me a wolf target. I'll be passing the Hammer off tonight to keep it hidden, in case there's anything else we want to destroy.

[RealDeal]

Last night I passed the coat and one silver piece to Henry. He was one guy I knew was safe. So now it appears the wolves have the coat.

[Poli]

Warlord is the Hammer. I was hoping to keep this hidden. Quite honestly, I didn't send him anything yesterday. I was not sent anything to send him. Since Warlord is coming clean, I will as well.

In fact, I wasn't sent anything last night, either. Hard to send the Hammer things when I'm not sent anything myself.

Now the Hammer has come clean. I won't be able to send him anything tomorrow.

[Poli]

Ahem, excuse me? I wasn't safe?

[Poli]

Add on: Sorry to deceive my fellow villagers, but I didn't want the wolves to think the pipeline to the Hammer was broken. I can't send the Hammer stuff if I don't have it.

UGH!

[Eaglesfan27]

Is there any evidence that exonerates RealDeal? He was loud and arrogant. I don't think that should exonerate him. He was the most vocal proponent of lynching a villager. I'm willing to listen to evidence and change my vote, but right now:

I vote RealDeal.

[Poli]

I'm curious as to why RealDeal doesn't think I was safe, when it's been a near consensus that I am a villager.

[Raiders Army]

Ardent, I think you're safe...as safe as anyone else out there at this point, considering there's a sorceror running around out there now.

Eaglesfan, I don't think there's any hard evidence that would exonerates RealDeal. But then again, there is no "hard evidence" that damns or exonerates anyone, unless someone comes forth and says, "I know for a fact, so-and-so is a wolf." Even then, that's debateable.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Ardent, I think you're safe...as safe as anyone else out there at this point, considering there's a sorceror running around out there now.

Eaglesfan, I don't think there's any hard evidence that would exonerates RealDeal. But then again, there is no "hard evidence" that damns or exonerates anyone, unless someone comes forth and says, "I know for a fact, so-and-so is a wolf." Even then, that's debateable.

Fair enough. I agree with your point. If some other information comes to light that indicates someone else is a wolf, I'll switch my vote.

[Poli]

Can one of my excel buddies out there give me a rundown on who voted who and who's still in the game?

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Ardent, I think you're safe...as safe as anyone else out there at this point, considering there's a sorceror running around out there now.

Yeah, a new sorcerer does change things up.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I don't think it makes sense to post your silver count - only makes you more attractive to the wolves.

that was in case I got killed so you had an idea of what I had, since I didn't I was able to make a purchase.

the wolves started with 3 silver total.
Jeff w/ 1
Ardent said he passed his to jeff so by night 1 they had a minimum 5.

Now if wolf #1 & #2 passed their items to wolf #3 that would give them 7 total silver at the end of night 1. Did jeff pick up qwik's silver? that's 8

It is very conceviable that 1 wolf had all the silver and on night 2 bought the book. and they could just pass things back and forth to continue to collect silver. and at this point have 2 books. just my thoughts. I'll continue to read all the posts from last night to this morning now.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Vince

SnDvls -- ??? -- Villager. Mr. Wednesday is someone I believe to be a villager. If he vouches for SnDvls, that's enough for me.

He appeared to me to be a villager. I think it's highly unlikely that he would have a mask, at this point, with one used and one destroyed. It's not completely out of the question, but I think we can neglect that possibility for now.

[hoopsguy]

Did I miss somewhere where the wolves started with one silver? I thought everyone started with zero.

[Poli]

I started with 1 silver.

[SnDvls]

I started w/ 1

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Can one of my excel buddies out there give me a rundown on who voted who and who's still in the game?

I'd like to do this, but I still have six more reports to write before I go home today. Yay Friday. I don't think that the voting patterns will help much other than when we lynched digamma and blade (even that one won't help much if RealDeal turns out to be a villager).

[Raiders Army]

The other thing with voting patterns is that every other time I've done it and tried to pick out the wolves, the analysis was wrong. Maybe it was the person doing the analysis.

[Poli]

Good luck, Warlord. I don't know what you plan to do with the Hammer. Really screws my plans. I was going to dodge the issue today...which easily would have worked since I'm driving home this afternoon.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

I started with 1 silver.

Ditto.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Can one of my excel buddies out there give me a rundown on who voted who and who's still in the game?

working on it now

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Good luck, Warlord. I don't know what you plan to do with the Hammer. Really screws my plans. I was going to dodge the issue today...which easily would have worked since I'm driving home this afternoon.

We'll see. I was hoping to keep it quiet, but your early posts made me feel like I had to defend myself. Besides, the major item that needed to be destroyed (the mask) has been destroyed, so it's not a big deal.

I trust the person I'm passing the Hammer off to, so we should be alright, unless I'm just a terrible judge of roles.

[RealDeal]

vote RealDeal

let's do this.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by RealDeal

vote RealDeal

let's do this.

...

[RealDeal]

Ardent, when I said Henry one guy I knew was safe, it didn't mean he was the only guy. I thought about you, but I felt like you had been too public with your role and were a likely candidate to die. Unfrotunately, I made the wrong choice and passed it to a guy who was alive all of 30 seconds before the wolves killed him.

[SnDvls]

(name) (day1), (day2), (day3), (day4)

sundvls - (Mr. W),(Lathum),(Dig),(Sup., unvoted, RealDeal, unvoted, NO VOTE)
kingfc22 - (hoops),(NO VOTE),(Dig),(NO VOTE)
Coffee Warlord - (AE),(Lathum),(Dig.),(NO VOTE)
Eaglesfan27 - (Qwik),(Lathum),(BrianD),(RealDeal)
hoopsguy - (Qwik),(Lathum),(BrianD),(Raiders)
schmidty - (AE),(Lathum),(Dig),(Blade, unvoted, RealDeal, unvoted, Blade)
vince - (Eaglesfan),(Lathum),(Dig),(Blade, unvoted, RealDeal)
RealDeal (Qwik),(Lathum),(Dig),(Blade)
Raiders - (fouts),(Lathum, unvoted, fouts),(Dig),(Sup., unvoted, RealDeal, unvoted, Blade)
Mr. Wednesday - (SnDvls),(Lathum, unvoted, SnDlvs),(Dig),(NO VOTE)
MrBug708 - (Sup.),(Lathum),(Dig.),(SnDvls, unvoted, hoops, unvoted, RealDeal, unvoted, Blade)
Superman=#54 - (AE),(fouts),(NO VOTE),(RealDeal)
ardent enthusiast - (schmidty, unvoted, Qwik),(Lathum),(Dig),(King)

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

The other thing with voting patterns is that every other time I've done it and tried to pick out the wolves, the analysis was wrong. Maybe it was the person doing the analysis.

In Neon_Chaos' mafia game, voting analysis worked out spectacularly well for me, even though I never figured out how to leverage the knowledge toward winning the game. Of course, I wasn't a villager, so I had a little more knowledge than usual.

[SnDvls]

with that being said

vote Raiders Army

[Mr. Wednesday]

This is a shot in the dark, based only on a suspicious voting record.

Vote EaglesFan27

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

The "money trail" posts also indicate that for the wolves to have accumulated the six silver that the other two wolves must not have held items. Which means that the person who stole the amulet from Fouts was not a wolf. Or that I'm missing some revenues in the "money trail" post.

not totally true. if they kept doing a pass and keep between them w/ one of them alway without an item they'd be able to keep the items for the day and still get silver at night.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

with that being said

vote Raiders Army

Okay...no hard feelings, but a little reasoning? Just because I said a vote analysis wouldn't do much at this point?

[Poli]

Looks like we're going to be spreading our votes out today. With no solid leads, I suppose we're back at square one.

Darn Warlord. Darn friggin Warlord. You were in the circle...I just had to make it appear you weren't. Darn Warlord.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

In Neon_Chaos' mafia game, voting analysis worked out spectacularly well for me, even though I never figured out how to leverage the knowledge toward winning the game. Of course, I wasn't a villager, so I had a little more knowledge than usual.

I think it depends on what has happened in the game. I didn't follow that thread, but it seems as if there's little to derive from the way voting went in this game due to the fact that digamma was the only wolf lynched that we know for sure.

That's why I went with post counts the day before he was lynched and the day of to see if there were any indicators there.

[Raiders Army]

Sigh....back to report #3.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Okay...no hard feelings, but a little reasoning? Just because I said a vote analysis wouldn't do much at this point?

that's really all I'm basing it on. I see how you voted and when you unvoted, makes me wonder...not just you though either. Superman is still up there along with Bug too. I had to pick one of you three.

[Poli]

With Warlord out, I can now say I've been suspicious of Superman. I still for the life of me can't figure out why they didn't go after CW, Schmidty, Superman, or myself.

Of course, I can't figure out why items haven't been fed to me, either. Now that pipeline is done. Sigh.

[Poli]

Wow. RA used the word sigh as well. That's...an interesting coincidence.