WW XCV: Land of the Role Reveals GAME OVER

[hoopsguy]

I'm going to make a dual defensive, seek-the-cultist vote on Lerriuqs here. I know it has been speculated that I'm the cultist today, just as it was speculated that I was the cunning on Day 1. Neither is the case, but I doubt anything short of a scan by Dubb is going to put these suggestions to rest.

If we do have a converted cultist (seems likely) then it is a lot more likely to be Lerri than it is to be Racer, in my opinion.

So,
VOTE LERRIUQS

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I am going to go back and

Vote Racer

he is unknown, has a spotty voting record and the way he jumped on me for making the mistake earlier today about USFL made it seem like he was looking for a reason to jump on someone.

I agree. He did the same thing to me when I was "quiet". I said it then and I'll say it again - looked like a reach for easy prey.

Vote Racer

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Well, if consolidation happens, I want to be sure the candidate I am looking at is one of them, so I'll vote now.

VOTE RACER

For reasons stated. He's perhaps the most uncleared of the remaining DT voters, he is one of the three players known to have voted for villagers thus far, and he came off around in my mind this morning arguing against the dubb scan.

There are mitigating factors for all these, so he's far from a guy who is an obvious wolf, but in my mind, he's the best target for today, given what we know so far.

PB, here's what I stated in making my vote. The discussion that tripped me a bit was this morning, so you can probably find it pretty quick. Look for the discussion around where I suggest scanning dubb, and bring up the hypotheticial about who a wolf could pull off a Duke reveal.

[PurdueBrad]

Just an update for dubb and I.

REFLECTS CHANGES:

My list:

Schmidty
Dubb GOOD-Believed seer/starting duke
Danny
USFLTecmo
Chief Rum scanned good N1 by PB
Lerriuqs
Tyrith scanned good N2 by PB


Dubb (or other believed seer list)

PurdueBrad starting seer/believed BG
Hoopsguy
ntn
Martin
Lathum
Telle
Racer
saldana scanned good/believed something

[Schmidty]

Dola.

I haven't caught up yet, and might be slow in doing so. I'm cutting down a tree with a rusty hatchet. Without gloves!!! And using a machete on blackberry bushes!!! I am bleeding and blistery, but my wife challenged me, and I don't back down!!!

Pics may be coming....

[PurdueBrad]

Thanks CR, hunting it down in a minute. Be back in a few guys.

[Lathum]

PB, i'm not really sure why you would introduce a new candidate today all things considered but like I said if you wanna vote me for being quite so be it.

[Danny]

PB, at this point I would go with a current candidate as we don't need another candidate introduced at this point.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by dubb93

The only reason I can see for Racer not wanting me scanned is that he wants there to be doubt about my scans. Do you disagree CR?

Sorry, dubb, I had to step away. I don't know that I can speculate his reasons. All I know is that it seemed to go against the logical argument. He also proposed scanning Danny instead of dubb, along the same lines of thinking, using Danny to clear dubb, instead of scanning dubb himself. Just an off response.

For anyone looking, start around my post #933, and read forward from there for a page or so. You should get it all.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Lathum

PB, i'm not really sure why you would introduce a new candidate today all things considered but like I said if you wanna vote me for being quite so be it.

Not really, just not a particular fan of the main option so I was looking around, kicking tires basically.

[Chief Rum]

I need to get my belief votes in. Having reviewed the options, I think the Maniac is a better choice than the Tough Wolf, who only appears to avoid a lynch, right?

VOTE SALDANA THE MANIAC
VOTE CHIEF RUM THE DUKE

As for that last, why not? Just in case, since we get two votes anyway.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Danny

PB, at this point I would go with a current candidate as we don't need another candidate introduced at this point.

My vote will go Hoops (where it is at now) or Telle depending on how things go. I'm still reading up on the Racer argument though so we'll see. I am mildly surprised that, if he's good, no wolves tried to jump on a possible push to knock Hoops out because he can be such a good villager.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I need to get my belief votes in. Having reviewed the options, I think the Maniac is a better choice than the Tough Wolf, who only appears to avoid a lynch, right?

VOTE SALDANA THE MANIAC
VOTE CHIEF RUM THE DUKE

As for that last, why not? Just in case, since we get two votes anyway.

Barkeep, this is a REVOTE.

VOTE BELIEVE SALDANA THE MANIAC
VOTE BELIEVE CHIEF RUM THE DUKE

[Danny]

As of 1113

5 Racer - Lathum (1039), Tyrith (1060), Chief (1082), Dubb (1093), Schmidty (1102)
3 Lerriuqs - Telle (1046), Saldana (1053), Hoopsguy (1101)
2 Hoopsguy - PurdueBrad (1013), Lerriuqs (1055)
1 Telle - Danny (1065)
1 NTN - USFL (1066)
1 Danny - Racer (1072)

[Danny]

Vote Hoopsguy

This is partly with gut and partly based on him being in the four I think most likely to carry wolves.

[Danny]

It is interesting that at this point Hoops and Racer have avoided voting eachother.

[PurdueBrad]

Danny, don't you have to unvote?

[Danny]

I think I did on the last page, let me make sure.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Danny

Unvote Telle

Really no support for this, I'm leaning towards going Hoops over Racer, but I think if those are our two candidates we are in good shape.

Yeah

[PurdueBrad]

Oh, sorry dude.

[Danny]

I just didn't fix the vote count.

As of 1119

5 Racer - Lathum (1039), Tyrith (1060), Chief (1082), Dubb (1093), Schmidty (1102)
3 Lerriuqs - Telle (1046), Saldana (1053), Hoopsguy (1101)
3 Hoopsguy - PurdueBrad (1013), Lerriuqs (1055), Danny (1115)
1 NTN - USFL (1066)
1 Danny - Racer (1072)

[PurdueBrad]

Hoops, game aside. Is your daughter okay?

[hoopsguy]

PB, game aside she seems 100% fine. We got some drops for her eyes, but she is very cheerful tonight and I'm having a lot of fun playing with her. It looks like she (and Mommy) will still be able to go visit relatives tomorrow afternoon, which more or less clinches for me that the pinkeye was more scare than reality. But we're still giving her the drops just in case.

Thanks for asking. Now please consider other candidates

[hoopsguy]

Danny, I have no vested interest in Racer - anymore than I did last game when I didn't vote Telle for several days. I just have believed each of the last two days that there has been a higher percentage candidate.

Since I'm not being forced into survival mode at the moment I would rather vote for the guy I think is a more likely wolf (Lerriuqs).

[Danny]

I'm glad everything looks with your daughter Hoops.

What do you think about Telle or NTN as candidates?

[ntndeacon]

either of those candidates look fine. Though keeping it from being a runaway lets Vote Lerriuqs

[ntndeacon]

ntn is a bad candidate as he wont be around til after the end .

[Danny]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

ntn is a bad candidate as he wont be around til after the end .

What?

[Tyrith]

I think he's saying he won't be here to defend himself. That's a pretty weak defense.

[PurdueBrad]

As of 1139

5 Racer - Lathum (1039), Tyrith (1060), Chief (1082), Dubb (1093), Schmidty (1102)
4 Lerriuqs - Telle (1046), Saldana (1053), Hoopsguy (1101), ntndeacon (1136)
3 Hoopsguy - PurdueBrad (1013), Lerriuqs (1055), Danny (1115)
1 NTN - USFL (1066)
1 Danny - Racer (1072)

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Danny

I'm glad everything looks with your daughter Hoops.

What do you think about Telle or NTN as candidates?

For today or just their likelihood of being wolves?

OK, started responding to this before putting my daughter to bed. I'll continue this thought after getting caught up in the thread since deadline is getting a little closer and (last I checked) I had some votes on me.

[Racer]

Unvote Danny

[Racer]

I'm pretty much think all the lynch candidates suck.

[hoopsguy]

OK, looks like I missed all of five posts.

NTN - seriously, I would like to see him scanned because I rarely have any meaningful reads on him. And I kind of waffle between wanting to allow him to get some play in a game (he was out D1 last time) and wanting to kill him because he doesn't post enough. So a scan on him would be something that I think would help me avoid having to flip a coin in a somewhat-near-endgame scenario.

Telle - I had her (along with NTN) in my neutral list earlier today, but if we have five wolves I think there is a pretty good chance she is one of them. I think she has been playing pretty close to the vest this game after being a bit more vocal in the past couple of games. If she is not a wolf I wouldn't be surprised if she has a meaningful villager role. I don't think I'm putting her at too much risk by saying that given how many high-value targets the wolves already have out there for tonight.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Racer

I'm pretty much think all the lynch candidates suck.

So where would you like to go? If you don't have to play self-defense?

[Racer]

Vote Lathum

I'm a vanilla villager and I don't think Lerriuqs is a wolf and see no reason to vote him. I tend to think Lathum is more likely a wolf then Hoopsguy so I'm going to vote for him since it looks like I'm pretty much gone.

[Racer]

I actually think Schmidty and Chief Rum (as a converted cultist) are more likely, but I don't see anyone following me on those two.

[hoopsguy]

I think Chief Rum is a lower probability than the other two (because there are only two possible roles he could have) but I could be talked into going one of the other two if I wasn't potentially putting myself at risk in the process.

We've got 12 minutes - build a case (quickly) beyond gut on any of them.

[Danny]

Dubb, Tyrith, PB, what are your thoughts?

[Tyrith]

I would rather kill ntn than anyone else, but there's enough of punishing quiet people in that to make it not because I think he's the most likely to be a wolf. Wolf wise I think it's Racer, Telle, ntn, other. I really wish ntn would engage more.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Danny

Dubb, Tyrith, PB, what are your thoughts?

I think Racer is hoping for movement so he can jump on someone at the last minute to be honest. That would give him another day to argue he isn't a wolf and who knows what tonight brings that may shift the focus off of him entirely.

[Danny]

Unbelieve Saldana as Tough Wolf

[Racer]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I think Chief Rum is a lower probability than the other two (because there are only two possible roles he could have) but I could be talked into going one of the other two if I wasn't potentially putting myself at risk in the process.

We've got 12 minutes - build a case (quickly) beyond gut on any of them.

My only real case against Schmity would be:

1.) Threw away vote on day one. He voted early (I think). Came back on here around an hour before the deadline when and didn't bother to change his vote when the guy he was on clearly wasn't going to be lynched.

2.) Moved late onto Martin. He tied the vote 5-5 (USFL was actually briefly in the lead for the lynch) before Danny made it 6-4.

3.) He's been pretty UTR.

Lathum's more gut then anything and probably because he was going after me earlier.

Chief Rum has been subtly suggesting my name the last couple of days. Plus I think he's been playing a bit like he could be the cultist.

[hoopsguy]

Does anyone have updates on the believe vote?

I assume Saldana is the only one with a reasonable chance of being believed at the moment based on 40% rule.

[Danny]

It's going to be Saldana for Maniac

[Racer]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I think Racer is hoping for movement so he can jump on someone at the last minute to be honest. That would give him another day to argue he isn't a wolf and who knows what tonight brings that may shift the focus off of him entirely.

I don't have a role. I don't know about Hoops or Lerriuqs, but I no longer see Hoops as a likely wolf and I never thought Lerriuqs was a wolf.

[hoopsguy]

UNBELIEVE TYRITH AS MANIAC
BELIEVE SALDANA AS MANIAC

I don't think I'm getting any backing on the idea of multiple candidates, so lets make sure we get Saldana elected for one of the spots rather than potentially coming up empty.

[Racer]

Should I test to see if Dubb is really the Duke or not? I will go with what Hoops says.

[Danny]

Racer, if you're really a villager, vote Lerriuqs. That will tie the vote and give Lerr the last vote. Then if you are lynched we know 100% Dubb is the duke and there is no need to waste a scan.

[hoopsguy]

Looks like Lerri is not going to be here for deadline. Would have loved to have some high-pressure conversation with him at this point rather than just having Racer around.