WW XCV: Land of the Role Reveals GAME OVER - Page 26

hoopsguy · 05-30-2009, 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Okay, we now have 11 players left. Best case, assuming nobody above was a wolf, is that we're 7-4, worst case 6-5. We MUST get a wolf today, so if you have any information or anything to go on, now is the time to spill it.

I scanned Danny...villager. I'm hoping dubb had better luck.

Right now, the COT I have going (and I know everyone's will vary some): Tyrith, Danny, Saldana, dubb and me.

Those scans all came after the no kill night as well so none of them have been converted. That being said, we're left with:

Schmidty, Hoops, Telle, Lathum, Racer, USFL

WORST CASE:
There are four or five wolves (even if dubb is one and saldana is another, say a fake scan via dubb), we have two or three left among those six players.

BEST CASE:
We have 4 or 5 wolves in those 6.

I will NOT be believing anyone for a role today unless it absolutely makes 100% sense in my mind.

My vote will definitely go on to one of those six, most likely one of three of them.

If Dubb is clean then I think Racer is probably a wolf with his move last night. They didn't know for sure if Dubb was the duke, but they did know they didn't want to lose one of their own.

If Dubb is dirty then I'm as positive as I can be, minus role info, that Racer is good because they would not want to put him in trouble near the deadline.

I'm really hoping we have the answer to that question because it would help with going back to look at some earlier votes.

Danny · 05-30-2009, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana

i did, and here is why...i have played with NTN before and had him pull what is arguably the best UTR wolf game i have ever seen...in this game, i actually had almost forgotten he is playing, so i checked his post numbers...he had 24 posts in the entire thread...USFL has less, but i dont know enough about him to PK him, but NTN was really nagging at me so I played my hunch

what about you? you dont appear to have done anything.

I never intended do, my goal was to keep both Dubb and I alive another night.

PurdueBrad · 05-30-2009, 11:12 AM

SO, Hoops, Lathum, Telle, Schmidty, USFL, and Racer

Are you willing to say that you are a vanilla wolf?

PurdueBrad · 05-30-2009, 11:12 AM

This should be fun to watch.

Danny · 05-30-2009, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

So let us see who is NOT willing to step up and say that they are a vanilla wolf because my vote will DEFINITELY go on them.

The only issue with that is if we end up on villager with that the wolves won't care, but if we end up believing a wolf, the wolves might try and take me out. I'll need protection

Danny · 05-30-2009, 11:14 AM

I'd still like to know what NTN was.

hoopsguy · 05-30-2009, 11:15 AM

Sure, I'll put it out there if people want to vote me into the role. Believe away.

I'M THE VANILLA WOLF

Danny · 05-30-2009, 11:15 AM

Hoops, Lathum, Telle, Schmidty, USFL, and Racer

I'm willing to bet Telle is a wolf, I think there's a good chance Hoops is a wolf too. USFL I don't think is. Schmidty and Racer I don't know.

PurdueBrad · 05-30-2009, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

The only issue with that is if we end up on villager with that the wolves won't care, but if we end up believing a wolf, the wolves might try and take me out. I'll need protection

I'll be curious to see how the orders are processed. I would assume that yours would go first. In fact, as a placeholder, submit an order to kill the believed vanilla wolf if BK will accept it in case he does it based on time.

Danny · 05-30-2009, 11:18 AM

I have to believe if Dubb was bad, the wolves would have killed me in the night phase.

Danny · 05-30-2009, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I'll be curious to see how the orders are processed. I would assume that yours would go first. In fact, as a placeholder, submit an order to kill the believed vanilla wolf if BK will accept it in case he does it based on time.

I did this

PurdueBrad · 05-30-2009, 11:19 AM

Danny, Tyrith, Saldana, Dubb, and I (and possibly whoever dubb scanned), we need to coordinate our believe here and our vote here. If we split, the wolves can manipulate it (I believe) so as the weekend goes, make a list for yourself ranking 1-6 the most likely wolf of that group (1 being MOST likely) and we'll compare notes, probably tomorrow or Monday at the latest.

PurdueBrad · 05-30-2009, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

I did this

Thanks Danny, sorry if it sounded like I was ordering you around, wasn't my intent.

PurdueBrad · 05-30-2009, 11:20 AM

Hoops, thanks for stepping up first.

PurdueBrad · 05-30-2009, 11:21 AM

Two things I'm dying to know about...

ntn

dubb's scan

Danny · 05-30-2009, 11:22 AM

I think it may be time for the other seer to step up and reveal. At this point I think it is unlikely PB is the false seer and that could potentially help focus our suspect list.

hoopsguy · 05-30-2009, 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Hoops, Lathum, Telle, Schmidty, USFL, and Racer

I'm willing to bet Telle is a wolf, I think there's a good chance Hoops is a wolf too. USFL I don't think is. Schmidty and Racer I don't know.

You missed Lathum in that analysis.

Why don't you think USFL in that list?

If I was ranking those names I would go, most to least likely wolves:
Telle
USFL
Lathum
Schmidty
Racer (without Dubb being scanned I don't know where to put him)

With no real confidence in any of them as villagers, but I've got a better internal argument for Racer than anyone else. Of course, that assumes Dubb as a wolf.

Racer · 05-30-2009, 11:22 AM

Why would we vote someone Vanilla Wolf? How does chatting with the cultist help anyone?

Anyways, based on his late switch last night, I think this is a no brainer honestly.

Vote Hoopsguy

Danny · 05-30-2009, 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer

Why would we vote someone Vanilla Wolf? How does chatting with the cultist help anyone?

Anyways, based on his late switch last night, I think this is a no brainer honestly.

Vote Hoopsguy

Because then they become believed and I can kill them in the night. It allows us to pick out our two best suspects and kill one with lynch and one with my ability.

PurdueBrad · 05-30-2009, 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Because then they become believed and I can kill them in the night. It allows us to pick out our two best suspects and kill one with lynch and one with my ability.

PERFECT explanation Danny.

hoopsguy · 05-30-2009, 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Hoops, thanks for stepping up first.

Honestly, I don't see it as that big of a deal. It is probably something that is equally likely to be villager/wolf play. But I'll defer to the folks on the trust list in terms of planning to some extent since anything I suggest is going to be viewed very critically, barring a Dubb scan calling me a villager.

Here is why I think that the wolves would be willing to go along with this plan. If the wolves are 6-5 they are going to be looking for reasons to avoid being the lynch today. This may be true at 7-4 as well, but at 6-5 it is a game ender. It would be silly to take out the vanilla wolf during the day if the plan is for Danny to knee-cap him at night.

So if a wolf is volunteering in this spot then they are potentially increasing the likelihood of us lynching a villager today.

Danny · 05-30-2009, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Honestly, I don't see it as that big of a deal. It is probably something that is equally likely to be villager/wolf play. But I'll defer to the folks on the trust list in terms of planning to some extent since anything I suggest is going to be viewed very critically, barring a Dubb scan calling me a villager.

Here is why I think that the wolves would be willing to go along with this plan. If the wolves are 6-5 they are going to be looking for reasons to avoid being the lynch today. This may be true at 7-4 as well, but at 6-5 it is a game ender. It would be silly to take out the vanilla wolf during the day if the plan is for Danny to knee-cap him at night.

So if a wolf is volunteering in this spot then they are potentially increasing the likelihood of us lynching a villager today.

Which is true, but everyone would hopefully do it and then those trusted will decide which ones to believe. I think if we lynch Telle we will be hitting a wolf. I would like the other seer to reveal as that would help our trust list quite a bit.

hoopsguy · 05-30-2009, 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Racer

Why would we vote someone Vanilla Wolf? How does chatting with the cultist help anyone?

Anyways, based on his late switch last night, I think this is a no brainer honestly.

Vote Hoopsguy

Racer, do you think I did this as a wolf trying to save wolf Dubb who was not actually the duke? That is the only explanation that makes sense for me to do this. In that case, you should vote out Dubb so can potentially get a new believed seer.

There would be no reason for me to do this as a wolf to prevent a tie if I'm a wolf, Dubb is the duke/seer villager and you are a villager. It brings all kinds of attention to me with zero reward.

I'm still very nervous about Dubb in his role without any scan, but you making this vote helps me feel a little better about it. Like I've said, I'm pretty darn sure you and Dubb are on separate teams.

VOTE RACER

EagleFan · 05-30-2009, 11:31 AM

I guess this is what a Mets' fan feels like in September.

Go village!!!

Danny · 05-30-2009, 11:34 AM

We really need to find out about NTN. If he was a villager, we might be in end game here. If he was a wolf, we have some slight breathing room.

Racer · 05-30-2009, 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Because then they become believed and I can kill them in the night. It allows us to pick out our two best suspects and kill one with lynch and one with my ability.

Ahh. That makes sense.

Unvote Hoopsguy

Assuming your plan is to take out Hoopsguy at night.

Racer · 05-30-2009, 11:40 AM

Whoops.

Unvote Hoopsguy

PurdueBrad · 05-30-2009, 11:43 AM

Assuming Racer says that he is the vanilla wolf, that'll give us two and Lathum was just here a second ago.

Danny · 05-30-2009, 11:45 AM

Yeah Lathum stopped in and didn't post at all.

Racer · 05-30-2009, 11:48 AM

Vote Dubb

His explanation about why he was choosing to use his "tiebreaker" vote on Lerriuqs instead of me came way after deadline. I don't buy he's the Duke at this point. He was here around the deadline too browsing the thread for a while I think before posting that. I really think both he and Hoops are bad. My vote is for Dubb since Danny seems to prefer to take out Hoops at night.

hoopsguy · 05-30-2009, 11:49 AM

Racer, at least this vote makes some sense.

It is also why I was looking to get Dubb scanned, because he is holding a key villager role. I would have loved to have been scanned as well, but we really needed to know about Dubb today to help guide the action.

Lathum · 05-30-2009, 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Assuming Racer says that he is the vanilla wolf, that'll give us two and Lathum was just here a second ago.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Yeah Lathum stopped in and didn't post at all.

cut me some slack, it's early on a saturday morning.

I just caught up, I am not willing to claim vanilla wolf at this time. We have a long time between now and deadline to figure stuff out.

Schmidty · 05-30-2009, 12:35 PM

I just woke up. I haven't checked the thread since yesterday right after deadline. We're getting ready to go to friend's dad's memorial in Lake Stevens (which is like 1 1/2 hours away) and then picnic, so I won't be around at all until at least 8 p.m. EST. Sorry. I'll catch up and post some more then.

I warned people that I wouldn't be able to play much on the weekends, so don't take it as me being sneaky please.

Danny · 05-30-2009, 01:08 PM

So Dubb what did you find

dubb93 · 05-30-2009, 01:12 PM

I found a wolf.

I scanned Lathum last night and he is wolf.

Vote Lathum

I also think the obvious play here is to believe Hoopsguy so Danny can take him out tonight.

Believe Hoopsguy as vanilla wolf

dubb93 · 05-30-2009, 01:14 PM

I'm heading back out to finish up my morning ritual of chain smoking for the first hour. I've got 2 down so far, 2 more to go.

hoopsguy · 05-30-2009, 01:15 PM

For now
UNVOTE RACER

hoopsguy · 05-30-2009, 01:18 PM

Just starting to run through some scenarios:

6-5, Dubb (wolf) + Lathum (villager) = game over

7-4 Dubb (wolf) + Lathum (villager) + Hoops (villager) = 6-4, down to 4-4 tomorrow after Danny uses his kill on me and wolves get night kill.

Danny, I assume that you would absolutely be using your kill on Dubb if Lathum = villager?

Racer · 05-30-2009, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

I found a wolf.

I scanned Lathum last night and he is wolf.

Vote Lathum

I also think the obvious play here is to believe Hoopsguy so Danny can take him out tonight.

Believe Hoopsguy as vanilla wolf

I'm going to keep my vote on you for now since I don't trust you at all at this point.

Danny · 05-30-2009, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Danny, I assume that you would absolutely be using your kill on Dubb if Lathum = villager?

Yes, it's only end game if we are 6-5 right now. If we lynch Lathum who turns up villager, I would kill Dubb which would make it 5-3 under your scenario.

If we're 6-5 right now then are are probably done for

Danny · 05-30-2009, 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

If we're 6-5 right now then are are probably done for

If Dubb is bad that is.

Danny · 05-30-2009, 01:24 PM

We still need to be sure about NTN before looking at numbers too closely. If he is a wolf, that this is unlikely to be an end game scenario.

Tyrith · 05-30-2009, 01:26 PM

I think we have to trust dubb at this point. We based our entire game around the fact that dubb is a good guy. If he's bad, we have realistically already lost, as we aren't going to have a COT.

Lathum is in the pool of people I'd be voting for someone out of anyway, and I said yesterday I'd look at him closer today. Well, this makes it seem fairly simple at this point.

VOTE LATHUM

Tyrith · 05-30-2009, 01:27 PM

At this point a significant portion of me suspects that the fake seer on the role list is a ruse and that there isn't actually one in the game.

Lathum · 05-30-2009, 01:29 PM

BS

more to follow when I have time

hoopsguy · 05-30-2009, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

We still need to be sure about NTN before looking at numbers too closely. If he is a wolf, that this is unlikely to be an end game scenario.

Understood, but I'll be surprised if BK left out the part about "oh yeah, you caught your first wolf" in his results post.

Tyrith · 05-30-2009, 01:31 PM

And slated to die if Lathum is bad...

BELIEVE HOOPSGUY AS VANILLA WOLF

hoopsguy · 05-30-2009, 01:33 PM

I just appreciate the public recognition of being believed in a WW thread, even if it is coming when I'm lying about being a vanilla wolf.

dubb93 · 05-30-2009, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

even if it is coming when I'm lying about being a vanilla wolf.

So which wolf are you exactly then hoops?

hoopsguy · 05-30-2009, 01:39 PM

Day 4 thoughts:
Cleared = PB (assumption), Danny (by PB), Tyrith (by PB)

Dubb = good, then wolves = Racer, Lathum, Telle, USFL and Schmidty
Dubb = evil, then wolves = Dubb, Saldana, Telle, USFL and Schmidty

If there are four wolves then take one of the names off the list - probably USFL or Schmidty.

Obviously I'm listing myself as cleared and others can put me where they want (probably on one/both wolf lists, based on what I've seen so far).

05-30-2009, 12:35 PM	#1283
Schmidty Coordinator Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Early, TX	I just woke up. I haven't checked the thread since yesterday right after deadline. We're getting ready to go to friend's dad's memorial in Lake Stevens (which is like 1 1/2 hours away) and then picnic, so I won't be around at all until at least 8 p.m. EST. Sorry. I'll catch up and post some more then. I warned people that I wouldn't be able to play much on the weekends, so don't take it as me being sneaky please. __________________ Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross

05-30-2009, 11:14 AM	#1256
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I'd still like to know what NTN was.

05-30-2009, 11:15 AM	#1257
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Sure, I'll put it out there if people want to vote me into the role. Believe away. I'M THE VANILLA WOLF

05-30-2009, 11:15 AM	#1258
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Hoops, Lathum, Telle, Schmidty, USFL, and Racer I'm willing to bet Telle is a wolf, I think there's a good chance Hoops is a wolf too. USFL I don't think is. Schmidty and Racer I don't know.

05-30-2009, 11:18 AM	#1260
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I have to believe if Dubb was bad, the wolves would have killed me in the night phase.

05-30-2009, 11:22 AM	#1266
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I think it may be time for the other seer to step up and reveal. At this point I think it is unlikely PB is the false seer and that could potentially help focus our suspect list.

05-30-2009, 11:22 AM	#1268
Racer College Benchwarmer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana	Why would we vote someone Vanilla Wolf? How does chatting with the cultist help anyone? Anyways, based on his late switch last night, I think this is a no brainer honestly. Vote Hoopsguy

05-30-2009, 11:31 AM	#1274
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	I guess this is what a Mets' fan feels like in September. Go village!!!

05-30-2009, 11:34 AM	#1275
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	We really need to find out about NTN. If he was a villager, we might be in end game here. If he was a wolf, we have some slight breathing room.

05-30-2009, 11:40 AM	#1277
Racer College Benchwarmer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana	Whoops. Unvote Hoopsguy

05-30-2009, 11:45 AM	#1279
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Yeah Lathum stopped in and didn't post at all.

05-30-2009, 11:48 AM	#1280
Racer College Benchwarmer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana	Vote Dubb His explanation about why he was choosing to use his "tiebreaker" vote on Lerriuqs instead of me came way after deadline. I don't buy he's the Duke at this point. He was here around the deadline too browsing the thread for a while I think before posting that. I really think both he and Hoops are bad. My vote is for Dubb since Danny seems to prefer to take out Hoops at night.

05-30-2009, 11:49 AM	#1281
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Racer, at least this vote makes some sense. It is also why I was looking to get Dubb scanned, because he is holding a key villager role. I would have loved to have been scanned as well, but we really needed to know about Dubb today to help guide the action.

05-30-2009, 01:08 PM	#1284
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	So Dubb what did you find

05-30-2009, 01:15 PM	#1287
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	For now UNVOTE RACER

05-30-2009, 01:18 PM	#1288
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Just starting to run through some scenarios: 6-5, Dubb (wolf) + Lathum (villager) = game over 7-4 Dubb (wolf) + Lathum (villager) + Hoops (villager) = 6-4, down to 4-4 tomorrow after Danny uses his kill on me and wolves get night kill. Danny, I assume that you would absolutely be using your kill on Dubb if Lathum = villager?

05-30-2009, 01:24 PM	#1292
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	We still need to be sure about NTN before looking at numbers too closely. If he is a wolf, that this is unlikely to be an end game scenario.

05-30-2009, 01:26 PM	#1293
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	I think we have to trust dubb at this point. We based our entire game around the fact that dubb is a good guy. If he's bad, we have realistically already lost, as we aren't going to have a COT. Lathum is in the pool of people I'd be voting for someone out of anyway, and I said yesterday I'd look at him closer today. Well, this makes it seem fairly simple at this point. VOTE LATHUM

05-30-2009, 01:27 PM	#1294
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	At this point a significant portion of me suspects that the fake seer on the role list is a ruse and that there isn't actually one in the game.

05-30-2009, 01:29 PM	#1295
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	BS more to follow when I have time

05-30-2009, 01:31 PM	#1297
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	And slated to die if Lathum is bad... BELIEVE HOOPSGUY AS VANILLA WOLF

05-30-2009, 01:33 PM	#1298
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	I just appreciate the public recognition of being believed in a WW thread, even if it is coming when I'm lying about being a vanilla wolf.

05-30-2009, 01:39 PM	#1300
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Day 4 thoughts: Cleared = PB (assumption), Danny (by PB), Tyrith (by PB) Dubb = good, then wolves = Racer, Lathum, Telle, USFL and Schmidty Dubb = evil, then wolves = Dubb, Saldana, Telle, USFL and Schmidty If there are four wolves then take one of the names off the list - probably USFL or Schmidty. Obviously I'm listing myself as cleared and others can put me where they want (probably on one/both wolf lists, based on what I've seen so far).

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