WW: Scooby Doo and the Horrible Halloween Party of Doom! Game over - Monsters win!!

[The Jackal]

Still plenty of time for me to keep staring at the two days of votes, though.

[The Jackal]

For other people's convenience, EF has a recap of day 1 and day 2 at post #751 and #756.

[KWhit]

I'm liking PB's Jag vote.

For 3 big reasons.

1) I trust PB's reveal, so I know I'm not following a wolf who's trying to divert attention away from Hoops or CW.

2) JAG's voting history is a little worse than either Hoops's or CW's. JAG voted late for Abe on day two when things looked pretty bleak for him. Yes, JAG maybe could have gone the other way and tied it up, but that would have thrown up big red flags if Abe ended up being lynched. So I'm thinking it likely that a wolf let's Abe take the fall at that point.

3) JAG's day one vote is what I'd expect from a wolf. Put it on a villager and leave it there. Incidently, he was the first vote on PB whom we all trust.

So I will:

VOTE JAG

[The Jackal]

I think I'm up for giving this a shot. I don't like JAG's day one vote, and I've almost convinced myself that either JAG or GE is a wolf based on the late votes from yesterday. I am not set in this, but I'd like to see what it does:

VOTE JAG

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by KWhit

3) JAG's day one vote is what I'd expect from a wolf. Put it on a villager and leave it there. Incidently, he was the first vote on PB whom we all trust.

Incorrect.

[EagleFan]

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[GoldenEagle]

Dola,

It is incorrect that we all trust PB. I just think there are some holes in his story.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Dola,

It is incorrect that we all trust PB. I just think there are some holes in his story.

Honestly, if the real Shaggy was out there, it would've made sense to reveal by now. Waiting this long would make a reveal seem very, very wolfy. Trading the spy for a wolf is absolutely encouraged.

[The Jackal]

Alright EF, I'm cool with that vote.

Do we have an updated vote count anyone?

[EagleFan]

Personally I would advise a couple villagers to consolidate the votes. Way too easy for the wolves to steer this off a wolf and onto a villager like this. Unfortunately I missed the nex page and the last two AG votes before I voted.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

CW voting for Abe to put it at 6-6 definitely looks good for him. RA voting to put Abe up 8-5 does not necessarily look good for him, since it was post-PB reveal.

How are you saying RA looks better there?

Jackal, sorry, I kind of blew this one. I was about out the door at work and trying to understand the idea that someone making a 6-6 tie being better than someone putting the wolf at 8-5 (on the basis of raw numbers), and you're correct, in the context of PB's reveal it doesn't look as good. I'm just going to say I feel that the timing of CW's votes (pushing NTN to 4-3 and a last minute save of what turned out to be the cunning wolf) are worse than RA's votes (his switch to Abe seems like a logical villager move, don't kill the roled player, go to the next highest candidate, although I don't agree with how he decided on NTN for the vote on D2).

I feel bad enough about both sets of votes that I feel like I'm splitting hairs deciding which one looks worse.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Dola,

It is incorrect that we all trust PB. I just think there are some holes in his story.

Fair enough, but at this point I think most all of us are assuming that he's telling the truth.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Alright EF, I'm cool with that vote.

Do we have an updated vote count anyone?

(ntn 4 CW 3 JAG 3 hoops 3)

[EagleFan]

dola: or to be more specific...

(774) Lathum votes hoopsguy (hoops 1)
(777) hoopsguy votes Coffee Warlord (hoops 1 CW 1)
(778) lerriuqs votes ntndeacon (hoops 1 CW 1 ntn 1)
(801) Raiders Army votes hoopsguy (hoops 2 CW 1 ntn 1)
(826) JAG votes hoopsguy (hoops 3 CW 1 ntn 1)
(841) Coffee Warlord votes ntndeacon (hoops 3 ntn 2 CW 1)
(849) ntndeacon votes Coffee Warlord (hoops 3 ntn 2 CW 2)
(852) PurdueBrad votes JAG (hoops 3 ntn 2 CW 2 JAG 1)
(857) Chief Rum votes Coffee Warlord (hoops 3 CW 3 ntn 2 JAG 1)
(875) MartinD votes ntndeacon (hoops 3 CW 3 ntn 3 JAG 1)
(892) Raiders Army unvotes hoopsguy, votes ntndeacon (ntn 4 CW 3 hoops 2 JAG 1)
(903) KWhit votes JAG (ntn 4 CW 3 hoops 2 JAG 2)
(904) The Jackal votes JAG (ntn 4 CW 3 JAG 3 hoops 2)
(906) EagleFan votes hoopsguy (ntn 4 CW 3 JAG 3 hoops 3)

[The Jackal]

Is GE the only person left to vote? Can you let us know where you are leaning, at least? I know you've been after hoops to reveal today, so I imagine you're looking at him.

[EagleFan]

I think today may be a very good day for a duking. We need that extra layer of trust built.

[EagleFan]

FTR: May not be online much after the deadline tonight. I am going through video game overload. Took advantage of the Best Buy buy 2 get 1 sale and picked up Uncharted 2 (Ps3), Borderlands (360) and FIFA 10 (360).

I think I need to go to video game anonymous...

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I think today may be a very good day for a duking. We need that extra layer of trust built.

That's a solid idea, depending on what shakes out in the next hour.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

FTR: May not be online much after the deadline tonight. I am going through video game overload. Took advantage of the Best Buy buy 2 get 1 sale and picked up Uncharted 2 (Ps3), Borderlands (360) and FIFA 10 (360).

I think I need to go to video game anonymous...

FIFA is awesome. Let me know how Uncharted 2 is.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

FIFA is awesome. Let me know how Uncharted 2 is.

Will do. I have high expectations for it as I have heard very good things.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I think I'm up for giving this a shot. I don't like JAG's day one vote, and I've almost convinced myself that either JAG or GE is a wolf based on the late votes from yesterday. I am not set in this, but I'd like to see what it does:

VOTE JAG

Just for the record, I wasn't around for the PB reveal on day 1, had I been I would've changed my vote because there's no sense in risking killing a roled villager because if he was a wolf, it would've come out at some point. That doesn't help a lot, but prior to PB's reveal, why would I have changed my vote? I was on one of the two primary candidates and I had no additional information.

If you look at my posts from D2, you'll see that I basically didn't know what to do with my vote because I suspected NTN and Abe were both villagers but I didn't have any candidates to suggest so I kept putting off my vote trying to decide which would be the lesser evil to vote for, Abe who I suspected more strongly was a villager (oops) but whose lynch would yield more information and who was probably a vanilla villager or NTN who I was less sure of was a villager but whose lynch would provide less information and who might've had a role. Considering how GE voted at the end, I'm very glad I put that vote on Abe.

[hoopsguy]

FWIW, I'm pretty OK with the duking today as well. I'm mildly surprised that the role has not been used up to this point (based on past games) and would rather see it used to expand the COT than go unused or exit via night death.

Obviously I'm not looking to end up on the receiving end of it, but I agree with the merits of using it.

[The Jackal]

JAG, FWIW, your vote pinged me less than GE's. But even though GE voted for NTN, that doesn't mean he's a wolf.. I'm letting it slide for at least a day.

[hoopsguy]

Whatever else you want to take away from JAGs vote yesterday, I don't think that he and GE are wolves together. If they were they could have preserved Abe for another day while taking out someone I think is a likely villager in NTN. I have both of these guys around the middle of the trust spectrum, but if one is shown to be a wolf my trust of the other one would move up a fair amount.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

JAG, FWIW, your vote pinged me less than GE's. But even though GE voted for NTN, that doesn't mean he's a wolf.. I'm letting it slide for at least a day.

GE's day one vote looks pretty decent (bringing Abe to 6-6 for the second time) despite day two looking bad. I'm ambivalent about him.

[The Jackal]

Oh no, I'm almost positive that they both aren't wolves. One of them is possible.

[hoopsguy]

Votes as of Post #924:
Hoops - Lathum (774), JAG (826), EF (906)
CW - Hoops (777), NTN (849), CR (857)
NTN - Lerri (778), CW (841), MartinD (875), RA (892)
JAG - PB (852), KWhit (903), Jackal (904)


Looking at those voting blocks, here are my best guesses on wolves:
On me - obviously trust EF, middle of the road on Lathum and JAG. 0-1 wolves here.

CW - NTN + CR along with me. I obviously trust myself and think that NTN is not a wolf (not giving much respect to the wolf/wolf theory from yesterday). 0-1 wolves here.

NTN - many of same people here who voted him earlier. I want to explore these voters quite a bit, with exception of Lerriuqs. 1-2 wolves here.

JAG - pretty high level of trust here, KWhit is only one I'm really considering for a wolf at the moment. 0-1 wolves here.


I would look for some aggressive consolidation to save a wolf in this group over the last hour if we do get one of them into a legitimate two man race. But right now I think they are pretty well dispersed on the candidates rather than clustering to try and get one person removed today.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

FWIW, I'm pretty OK with the duking today as well. I'm mildly surprised that the role has not been used up to this point (based on past games) and would rather see it used to expand the COT than go unused or exit via night death.

Obviously I'm not looking to end up on the receiving end of it, but I agree with the merits of using it.

I'm not sure I agree with that. Like in the soccer game a while back, the longer that role isn't used, the more powerful the CoT becomes with a smaller group of players (e.g. 1 trusted player out of 7 is better than 1 trusted out of 9). We also already have some decent information about candidates to vote for based on the last couple days of voting and potentially whatever information we learn from today so it's not like we're flying completely blind.

[hoopsguy]

Also, for what it is worth I would rather leave my vote on CW than move it to JAG but I will probably do so for self-preservation before I have to disappear from thread. The "best" self-preservation move is to go over to NTN, but I don't think it is the best chance of getting a wolf. So I'm certainly hoping that I'm not pushed into that corner over the next 5-10 minutes (when I'm leaving).

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by JAG

I'm not sure I agree with that. Like in the soccer game a while back, the longer that role isn't used, the more powerful the CoT becomes with a smaller group of players (e.g. 1 trusted player out of 7 is better than 1 trusted out of 9). We also already have some decent information about candidates to vote for based on the last couple days of voting and potentially whatever information we learn from today so it's not like we're flying completely blind.

Well, the risk is that if the player has already earned some semi-trust they are a more likely target for the nightkill now that the seer is gone.

If the person is not all that trusted they can probably risk riding it out for another day. But worst-case for them right now is getting NK'd with the role and not helping us expand the COT at all.

Tomorrow if the duke shows we'll have Scooby, Duke, and potentially Shaggy as trusted players among a group of 12 players (assumes no BG block). That would be a nice start, in addition to any voting logic that can be pulled from the first few days.

[JAG]

UNVOTE HOOPSGUY
VOTE COFFEE WARLORD

I don't think ntn should be lynched, I don't see a lot of momentum for hoops, so I will go for my #2 option for today and revisit hoops / RA tomorrow if I'm wrong.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Well, the risk is that if the player has already earned some semi-trust they are a more likely target for the nightkill now that the seer is gone.

If the person is not all that trusted they can probably risk riding it out for another day. But worst-case for them right now is getting NK'd with the role and not helping us expand the COT at all.

Tomorrow if the duke shows we'll have Scooby, Duke, and potentially Shaggy as trusted players among a group of 12 players (assumes no BG block). That would be a nice start, in addition to any voting logic that can be pulled from the first few days.

I still maintain it's better to hold onto the role unless the person thinks there's a slam dunk candidate. If they've earned some semi-trust, then they're more or less not being considered for a lynch and they're already somewhat in the CoT as it is. If they aren't trusted, they aren't as likely to get NK'ed and if they get lynched they can change the vote, we might be able to yield useful information from the vote, and then expand our CoT another day later when the smaller number of players will make it more useful. Just my two cents.

[hoopsguy]

EF - if you were picking between JAG and CW who would you pick and why?

Does the fact that JAG switched under the threat of a moved vote there have meaning to you?

I'm not sure I'll have a chance to get back into the thread to act on it, but I am interested in your answer to this since you are in the thread. And, on the chance that you think I'm a wolf messing with you, then just go ahead and lie to me

Seriously, I'm interested in understanding how people are forming their trust. Especially the cleared/near-cleared people because they are going to justifiably have more influence than the rest of us down the stretch.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Well, the risk is that if the player has already earned some semi-trust they are a more likely target for the nightkill now that the seer is gone.

If the person is not all that trusted they can probably risk riding it out for another day. But worst-case for them right now is getting NK'd with the role and not helping us expand the COT at all.

Tomorrow if the duke shows we'll have Scooby, Duke, and potentially Shaggy as trusted players among a group of 12 players (assumes no BG block). That would be a nice start, in addition to any voting logic that can be pulled from the first few days.

With the same deadline they would not be risking anything additional tonight by using the ability as they are either the target already or they aren't.

We're 10-3-1 right now (not counting me as I don't count in the numbers game).

Worst case the duke uses their power today and picks wrong we are at 8-3-1. The positive about that is that we also would have a CoT of 3 which is a pretty good block of people to start with. They may then survive yet another night as the unknown about the BG guarding Shaggy or them would exist (and the chance that Shaggy follows the duke while the BG guards Shaggy).

[JAG]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

They may then survive yet another night as the unknown about the BG guarding Shaggy or them would exist (and the chance that Shaggy follows the duke while the BG guards Shaggy).

That's an interesting thought, hadn't considered that.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

EF - if you were picking between JAG and CW who would you pick and why?

Does the fact that JAG switched under the threat of a moved vote there have meaning to you?

I'm not sure I'll have a chance to get back into the thread to act on it, but I am interested in your answer to this since you are in the thread. And, on the chance that you think I'm a wolf messing with you, then just go ahead and lie to me

Seriously, I'm interested in understanding how people are forming their trust. Especially the cleared/near-cleared people because they are going to justifiably have more influence than the rest of us down the stretch.

I don't see a reason to "distrust" either of them yet. I feel a little better about CW than JAG at the moment though. I can't see a wolf tying it up as late as CW did with their cunning at stake. Maybe I am being stupid and missing something though.

To be honest my biggest problem in this game (WW in general) is second guessing myself.

[GoldenEagle]

I don't want today to end in a tie, so I will be voting for CW or ntn. This assumes there are no late changes. I like what hoops said in his reply to my question, so at this point I am giving him a pass. I am not putting him in my COT, but I am not as distrusting as I was previously.

[PurdueBrad]

Scoobs, I agree. I've hoped for two days now that maybe the duke would throw down the gauntlet. I'll follow the duke, they'll be forced to enslut me and the BG can (or maybe won't to keep the wolves guessing) guard me.

If Duke is killed, I'll witness.

If I'm killed, BG blocks/witnesses

Otherwise, worst case scenario, they have to enslut me again (meaning our other roles are still able to act) and the BG either has me guarded which sucks for the duke OR he pulls a fast one and guards the duke instead and still gets us info. All in all, good times.

[Coffee Warlord]

I'm exceedingly busy this evening, so I don't really have time to try and further defend my actions. Either you trust me or you don't at this point. Hoping I get the benefit of the doubt here, but we shalt see.

[GoldenEagle]

Gah. I don't believe either one of these guys are wolves.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Scoobs, I agree. I've hoped for two days now that maybe the duke would throw down the gauntlet. I'll follow the duke, they'll be forced to enslut me and the BG can (or maybe won't to keep the wolves guessing) guard me.

If Duke is killed, I'll witness.

If I'm killed, BG blocks/witnesses

Otherwise, worst case scenario, they have to enslut me again (meaning our other roles are still able to act) and the BG either has me guarded which sucks for the duke OR he pulls a fast one and guards the duke instead and still gets us info. All in all, good times.

The rules didn't say that the BG would know who the wolf is if he gets a block, but I did find something interesting looking at the BG role:

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Good Roles

Freddie Jones - Each phase, Freddie may choose a person to guard from being kidnapped. Freddie may not choose the same person two phases in a row. Because of his obvious crush on her, if he ever guards Daphne, he learns her identity and may protect her the next phase as well if he chooses. Then he must alternate again.

With the BG alive, that might give more impetus for the duke to come out. But anyway, I trust whoever's playing the role to figure out the best play from their perspective and roll with it.

[Chief Rum]

I don't understand the JAG move. On Day One, he put in an early vote on PB and clearly wasn't around after that. On Day Two, he pretty much put the noose around Abe's neck. Can someone explain to me how that says wolf?

Of course, I already as much as said I would be switching off of CW, as I don't believe he makes the vote he does on Day One (bringing Abe into a tie relatively late) if he is a wolf. It was just a matter of having the time to look around.

Although I do have a suspicion he's a villager, given how he voted yesterday, I am going to have to switch to NTN, I think. He's still more likely to be a wolf to me than JAG or CW.

UNVOTE COFFEE WARLORD
VOTE NTNDEACON

[The Jackal]

CR, the late vote by JAG on day 2 screams buying trust by a wolf seeing a wolf going down. I suppose Abe's fate wasn't sealed yet, though.

[GoldenEagle]

I am going to stick with my vote yesterday. NTN's voting record is ok, but I think CW's is slightly better.

VOTE NTNDEACON

[JAG]

Well, hopefully the folks on NTN have a better read on things than I do, since I had 3-4 others I felt were more suspicious.

[Lathum]

PB, i am the duke.

follow me tonight

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by JAG

Well, hopefully the folks on NTN have a better read on things than I do, since I had 3-4 others I felt were more suspicious.

I was forced into voting for either CW or NTN. I know, I bring it on myself. I don't either one is a wolf, but we are still in good shape at this point.

[Lathum]

dola- hoops is going down tonight. If you guys want me to keep my power vote for him, otherwise it will be duked to him, i put the order in a few hours ago

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

CR, the late vote by JAG on day 2 screams buying trust by a wolf seeing a wolf going down. I suppose Abe's fate wasn't sealed yet, though.

7-6 dude. Fate definitely not sealed.

[The Jackal]

Intruiging, I may do that.