WW LXXXVII Terror at the University :Game over, Wolves win!

[Hannibal Lecter]

but the thing is.... we dont KNOW he isnt a wolf... and hes not a regular so maybe he just made a rookie mistake! lets hack his ass and reasses!

[Hannibal Lecter]

reases

[jeheinz72]

I guess my take is I'm overwhelmingly thinking that RPI is not pro-villager. Or at least it looks this way. I go back to my 80/20. 80% he's janitor or wolf. 20% he's just a goofed up villager. Of course, if he'd actually *answer* any of this talk, maybe we could sort it out. Even if he's that last 20%, his non-posting or replying to my PM's isn't exactly helping us either.

So, do we

A) Lynch him, taking the presumed bird in hand

or

B) Let him sit, potentially lynching people we don't have much on while we let someone who is quite likely bad continue to live?

I haven't made up my mind yet, but I'm leaning towards A. Sure, he's likely not the game-ending wolf, but he could be. And lynching people I don't have much on in the meantime seems foolhearty.

[Hannibal Lecter]

exactly! we dont KNOW hes not a wolf, and we are pretty sure hes bad~

[jeff061]

The logical move is not to lynch RPI and do what DT says. Just like the logical move yesterday was to let Hoops live.

I don't see any reason why the villagers would change their thinking in one night, so I just assumed get RPI out of the way so we can focus. But I'd change my vote off RPI easily.

[Hannibal Lecter]

I disagree, if we KNEW he was the janitor.... then we could all just filter him and be done with it, but he may be a wolf, who just is new and messed up!

[DaddyTorgo]

exactly Hannibal/clap. which is why i calculated how long we could let him live ASSUMING HE WAS THE BRUTAL WOLF and still win the game. There is absolutely ZERO reason to lynch him before that, and frankly, both JE and you arguing against it is raising my suspiscion on both of you. I'd like to see you both lynched over the next 3 days.

[DaddyTorgo]

lynching him before that is counter to the village's best intentions because he counts on our side for victory conditions.

[jeheinz72]

Well if RPI is the brutal wolf, who cares, we've likely won (I can't imagine 4 wolves)

If he's the janitor, I don't think he gets brutal ability. Or at least that would be some crazy ass construct.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

exactly Hannibal/clap. which is why i calculated how long we could let him live ASSUMING HE WAS THE BRUTAL WOLF and still win the game. There is absolutely ZERO reason to lynch him before that, and frankly, both JE and you arguing against it is raising my suspiscion on both of you. I'd like to see you both lynched over the next 3 days.

Wait wait, I disagree with one thing, one in which you're basically making a likely incorrect asssumption (that he is some form of brutal janitor non-wolf) and now I should get lynched?

Please...

[jeff061]

Well two days of pressing anti-logic it's looking like a reasonable alternative to me.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Wait wait, I disagree with one thing, one in which you're basically making a likely incorrect asssumption (that he is some form of brutal janitor non-wolf) and now I should get lynched?

Please...

Apparently you may still be missing the point.

The janitor counts towards the amount of villagers left alive, thus keeping jim alive until the last possible day gives us more days to vote. It has nothing to do with him having a brutal ability.

[jeff061]

jim=him, not some mysterious fellow .

[jeheinz72]

But like I've said all along, show me a good candidate and I'll go down that road with some discussion (hence why I haven't even voted for RPI yet). I don't see one I feel all that comfortable though, so rather than stab in the dark, I'd prefer to get someone who has a high likelihood of not being a benefit to the village out of the way.

If he's the brutal (with the game still afoot in some fashion), so be it. Danny is dead tonight since he can't protect himself and there is no other roled villager for us to lose.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Apparently you may still be missing the point.

The janitor counts towards the amount of villagers left alive, thus keeping jim alive until the last possible day gives us more days to vote. It has nothing to do with him having a brutal ability.

Well DT keeps bringing up some brutal talk (that I don't understand).

As far as janitor, yeah, he counts as us that I get. But his intentions are not going to be "with" us.

But, if faced with a stab in the dark (which has what, an 86% fail rate with 6 of the other 7 players being villagers with each person discounting BK, Danny and themselves ) I'd rather at least lynch the person we are about 80% sure is not working with us.

[jeheinz72]

Of course this is all made far worse by RPI not actually even being around. Which if he's a villager is an abhorrent gaffe on his part. And if he's wolf/janitor, well then maybe we do just let him rot.

[DaddyTorgo]

doesn't matter - he can't work against us. he can't even kill us.

[jeff061]

Having a good alternative or not is irrelevant unless everyone single person is proven villager.

unvote rpi

vote Heinz

So I may be making an enemy, I'm just tired of arguing things that seem obvious to me .

[jeheinz72]

Huh? Dude, discussion is villager beneficial. Since when does an opposing viewpoint mean I'm now a wolf?

[jeheinz72]

Fine. If arguing the point is going to get me killed, which I know (and frankly I think through my game play have proven) isn't a good thing, then I'll cede the point.

I'm putting my vote to someone that is questionable on a lot of lists.

Vote Hannibal Lecter

[DaddyTorgo]

since you're an intelligent enough player to grasp what i'm talking about and yet are persisting on objecting. it is definately raising some doubts in my mind as to your intentions.

[Grammaticus]

Last night, the wolf play would be to go for the Seer, no matter where he/she resides. The roommate issue is not relevant as the attack motivation has nothing to do with location, but everything to do with taking out the only power role that can out you. The wolf is likely a lone wolf at this point and is probably thinking fine, throw in the BG and hope he/she gets a kill if there is a block.

At this point heintz and Telle seem the most suspicious from the day one banter. Another oddity is DaddyTorgo has been very quiet. Isn’t he usually a very frequent poster. We have probably exchanged 2 PMs about nothing.

Telle advises wolves may avoid killilng roommates, so we should avoid a pile on. When the wolves hit roommates. This may have been subterfuge to cover roomie kills. Hoops supports this by saying it may be better to vote off your roomie, rather than doing the dirty work.

I really don’t like heintz’s approach to EF from day one. He claims that EF’s vote logic is so very suspicious (convoluted and selfish), then engages in a bunch of fluffy posts sparring over EFs vote logic. This looks like he is creating a myth of conflict for cover between two wolves. He was just too enthusiastic about getting things hot between the two. EF basically threw out a reason as random as any other.

I’m going with heintz for now:

VOTE JEHEINZ

[jeheinz72]

Well I just disagree on a purely strategical level. I get your overall point, I suppose. Just to me, it's not how I tend to operate.

But like I said, if I'm going to get votes solely because I'm being stubborn, then I'm willing to forsake my being so (as much as it pains me) in order to help the village avoid a bad lynch (of me)

[jeff061]

Since two days in a row there were clearcut proper paths and you were the obstacle providing no logical reason for disagreement. If you are not the wolf you are not being beneficial. At least that's my opinion.

You seem to want to have someone proved of being a wolf before you vote. That's not the right play.

[jeff061]

I'll be honest on DT, and maybe this may not be in the spirit of the game(but I can't really help it). I bought his reaction to last nights typo.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

At this point heintz and Telle seem the most suspicious from the day one banter.
I really don’t like heintz’s approach to EF from day one. He claims that EF’s vote logic is so very suspicious (convoluted and selfish), then engages in a bunch of fluffy posts sparring over EFs vote logic. This looks like he is creating a myth of conflict for cover between two wolves. He was just too enthusiastic about getting things hot between the two. EF basically threw out a reason as random as any other.

I’m going with heintz for now:

VOTE JEHEINZ

If I was a wolf, even if I wanted to get trust for voting for a wolf, why would I take it that far? I mean I was railing against him all day, keeping him on the candidate list.

Furthermore, from a purely strategical level, wouldn't I pick/sacrifice the wolf who is likely to get scanned (hoops)?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Since two days in a row there were clearcut proper paths and you were the obstacle providing no logical reason for disagreement. If you are not the wolf you are not being beneficial. At least that's my opinion.

You seem to want to have someone proved of being a wolf before you vote. That's not the right play.

Well, in my defense, last night worked out a-ok (hoops wasn't the brutal and had Danny made the less-tricky play of just protecting our Seer, our Seer would be alive)

But hey, like I said, I'm not going to let my stubborn-ness get in the way of us winning the game. I'll regale against that post-game

I think saying I'm not being beneficial is a touch harsh. 3 votes, 3 votes for a wolf, one of which I kicked off and at least helped us get. If you want to vote me out for disagreeing with you, that's fine, but don't come crying to me when I turn up villager and you just lost someone you didn't need to.

[jeff061]

By the way, I'm going to check DT's math, can someone else as well? I don't trust myself .

Currently we have 11 players left. We don't have to lynch him until we have 4 (or 3) total players left. Assuming a wolf kill + lynch everyday (-2 people) we have either 3 (or 4) lynch choices before we have to kill RPI-Fan.

[jeff061]

If you want to vote me out for disagreeing with you, that's fine, but don't come crying to me when I turn up villager and you just lost someone you didn't need to.

Chances are you are a villager. Chances are we don't lynch a wolf tonight or tomorrow night. Irrelevant . Like I said, there are no sure things.

Which is why I was pushing so hard to give the seer a chance.

[jeheinz72]

11 on Day 4 (today) ->
9 (day 5) ->
7 (day 6) ->
5 (day 7)

At this point we'd have 3 villagers, a wolf and RPI

If we miss that day, we'd lose (as 2 more deaths would mean on Day 8 it'd be wolf/RPI/villager and they'd control the vote)

So we can lynch people and miss on Day 4, 5 and 6 and still be ok. Then on Day 7 we'd have to hit the lynch, or lay up and vote RPI then.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Chances are you are a villager. Chances are we don't lynch a wolf tonight or tomorrow night. Irrelevant . Like I said, there are no sure things.

Which is why I was pushing so hard to give the seer a chance.

Well the Seer would've had a chance if...Bah

[DaddyTorgo]

Yes please. Check my math. I wouldn't want to be the one to screw it up because of being math-stupid. If we can get clarification from Lathum on how endgame works then we could possibly wait till we have 3 total players left (hence the 3 in parenthesis), but 4 is the number if we don't get clarification.

We are at 11 players now, we will be at 9 on D4, 7 on D5, 5 on D6, and 3 on D7. Hence we have to lynch RPI Fan on Day 6 if we don't get clarification from Lathum, and D7 if we get clarification regarding how the endgame scenario works (with 3 people total left would a brutal wolf win the game by being lynched via achieving a 1:1 ratio after taking out their brutal-choice before they could be strung up).

[Hannibal Lecter]

do we have a vote count?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Yes please. Check my math. I wouldn't want to be the one to screw it up because of being math-stupid. If we can get clarification from Lathum on how endgame works then we could possibly wait till we have 3 total players left (hence the 3 in parenthesis), but 4 is the number if we don't get clarification.

We are at 11 players now, we will be at 9 on D4, 7 on D5, 5 on D6, and 3 on D7. Hence we have to lynch RPI Fan on Day 6 if we don't get clarification from Lathum, and D7 if we get clarification regarding how the endgame scenario works (with 3 people total left would a brutal wolf win the game by being lynched via achieving a 1:1 ratio after taking out their brutal-choice before they could be strung up).

If it's 3 players left and it's one each of Villager, Wolf, RPI, then the wolves will win since RPI would just vote the villager off with the wolf

Also, you're off one day I believe, this is Day 4 right now (though that's Lathum's fault for not updating the thread title)

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Hannibal Lecter

do we have a vote count?

Quick glance has it at 2-2-2 between me, you and RPI

[DaddyTorgo]

oops, we are on D4 today and the thread title wasn't changed. Heinz's day-numbers are right, mine need to be adjusted and i can't edit.

9 D5
7 D6
5 D7
3 D8

So we must lynch RPI by D7.

Forget my stuff about the endgame, I forgot to account for the fact that "if RPI is the janitor and not the wolf" (which IMO is the most likely) then the wolf is still out there too.

[DaddyTorgo]

okay heinzy - you're redeeming yourself in my book a bit.

[DaddyTorgo]

gram - idk why i haven't PMed you much - haven't really had much to say. don't have any roles/powers, haven't had any massive insight, or needed to coordinate votes at all...*shrugs*

[jeff061]

I'm definitely open to switching off Heinz. But not sure if I want to do Hannibal though, I'll give it some time.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

okay heinzy - you're redeeming yourself in my book a bit.

Well good, like I said, I don't want my being stubborn to get in the way of the game.

So moving on, I'm on board with not lynching RPI today. Your thoughts on Hannibal?

[jeff061]

I think if I switch of Heinz it would have to be towards a quieter participant.

Abe/Telle? Thats what comes to mind, but I don't want to fracture the vote without someone else coming along.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by jeff061

I'm definitely open to switching off Heinz. But not sure if I want to do Hannibal though, I'll give it some time.

Did you post who was in your questionable bucket (tm)?

[jeheinz72]

NM that last one since I see your latest post

[Telle]

I'm not that fond of any of the choices right now.

Grammaticus's name has been tossed out a few times on peoples questionable lists. Gram, do you have anything to say?

[jeff061]

Telle, Gramm, Rummy. Followed closely by Abe and then Hannibal.

My bucket.

For lack of a real good choice I tend to lean towards villagers who may not be as active. Less of a loss and maybe if they're necks on the line they'll be forced to say something.

[jeheinz72]

I could see switching to Gramm.

Less so on Abe. Not giving me the vibe, but he's also a very good player.

Telle is really in my mind seeming villager. She's probably my 3rd candidate

[jeff061]

Yeah, I wish I knew the players better.

I've been given a crash course in Hannibal this game .

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Hannibal Lecter

reases

Pieces?

[Hannibal Lecter]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Yeah, I wish I knew the players better.

I've been given a crash course in Hannibal this game .

thhhhpppppt!

[Hannibal Lecter]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Pieces?

review, cant even get reacess close enough for spell check