Fantasy football advice 2018

[BishopMVP]

Have my keeper deadline coming up in a few days, figured it was time to start this thread!

12 keepers in my dynasty league. Here are my definites

QB: Russell Wilson, Marcus Mariota
RB: LeVeon Bell, Jordan Howard, Alex Collins
WR: Jarvis Landry, Will Fuller
TE: Tyler Eifert

which leaves me 4 to pick from

WR Kelvin Benjamin
RB Devontae Booker
WR Corey Coleman
RB Kenneth Dixon
TE Eric Ebron
WR Cam Meredith
RB Samaje Perine
WR Terrelle Pryor
WR Dede Westbrook
Kansas City D/ST

If I can't use some of this excess borderline talent in trades, I'm initially leaning Benjamin, Coleman, Pryor & Westbrook, but I haven't even started looking at position battles to see if any of those RB's could be a day 1 starter (Dixon in particular as a Collins handcuff), and how Meredith fits in New Orleans offense. Any thoughts?

[albionmoonlight]

Buzz from local media in New Orleans is that Meridith is on/ahead of schedule on his rehab.

That does not, of course, answer the question of how he will fit into the offense even if healthy. As you know, Saints' receivers are highly volatile under Payton/Brees.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Buzz from local media in New Orleans is that Meridith is on/ahead of schedule on his rehab.

That does not, of course, answer the question of how he will fit into the offense even if healthy. As you know, Saints' receivers are highly volatile under Payton/Brees.

Indeed. "Slot WR paired with Drew Brees" sounds awesome, but haven't we had 7 years in a row where that guy is the quintessential "he only goes off when on my bench" guy?

Made some trades though, and now I'm basically deciding between Meredith & Kenneth Dixon, leaning Dixon since that guarantees me "young Baltimore starting RB", and I'm pretty loaded with WR2/3's, which is probably Meredith's ceiling (i.e. I wouldn't bet on Dede Westbrook having a better season in Jacksonville, but he has a chance to be their #1 after the decision to let Allen Robinson go. Same with Kelvin Benjamin in Buffalo, though really idk how much value "Kelvin Benjamin as the undisputed Bills #1" has...) Fwiw I did have a lot of extra draft picks & still have picks 4/5, which should translate into 2 of the Chubb/Guice/Michel/Penny RB group unless someone else impresses or one of them gets hurt in training camp.

Current keeper thinking

QB: Wilson/Mariota
RB: LeVeon Bell, Jordan Howard, Alex Collins, Kenneth Dixon, (Pick #4), (Pick #5)
WR: Jarvis Landry, Will Fuller, Cooper Kupp, Kelvin Benjamin, Dede Westbrook, Julian Edelman* (post draft trade, so doesn't count against my keeper limit)
TE: Tyler Eifert

[jbergey22]

Id def keep Dixon in this scenario. WR's like Meredith are easy enough to pick up during the season plus Collins has shown some injury proneness in the past.

[panerd]

So I've been a Yahoo commissioner of a head to head standard league for so long I dont even know what else is out there. My league has decided to make some bigger changes to our standings and playoffs. Specifically...

1. Weekly scoring based only on points. Highest team gets 10, next highest gets 9, etc

2. Playoffs has byes and unusual scenarios. For example week 1 the bottom 4 play, then the next week the winner plays 2, 3 plays 6, 4 plays 5, and 1 gets another bye.

So I could do this with Yahoo in the commissioner's note section but was wondering do any sites do stuff like this already? Any of the free sites?

[Honolulu_Blue]

Keeper Question:

I have the first pick in a 12 team league.

I can keep 3 of the following players:

Melvin Gordon
Jay Ajayi
Russell Wilson

I am keeping Gordon, so between Ajayi and Wilson, which is the better keeper?

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Buzz from local media in New Orleans is that Meridith is on/ahead of schedule on his rehab.

That does not, of course, answer the question of how he will fit into the offense even if healthy. As you know, Saints' receivers are highly volatile under Payton/Brees.

fear Tre'Quan

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Keeper Question:

I have the first pick in a 12 team league.

I can keep 3 of the following players:

Melvin Gordon
Jay Ajayi
Russell Wilson

I am keeping Gordon, so between Ajayi and Wilson, which is the better keeper?

Do you have a 3rd keeper? Are there rules about how many years you can protect a guy?

Idk, maybe some people still worship at the "RB>>>>QB" altar, but I'd go with Wilson over Ajayi in a heartbeat. He was #1 overall in many FF leagues last year, and is as close to a guarantee of a an elite starter as there is at any position. Ajayi might have the upside of a top 10 RB, but I don't think the Eagles will give him enough carries to get there, and he's going off the board like 25th at his position.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Do you have a 3rd keeper? Are there rules about how many years you can protect a guy?

Idk, maybe some people still worship at the "RB>>>>QB" altar, but I'd go with Wilson over Ajayi in a heartbeat. He was #1 overall in many FF leagues last year, and is as close to a guarantee of a an elite starter as there is at any position. Ajayi might have the upside of a top 10 RB, but I don't think the Eagles will give him enough carries to get there, and he's going off the board like 25th at his position.

Only two keepers. You can keep a player for 3 years max. This would be the second year for Ajayi, I think, and first for Wilson.

The two seem to be going right around the same APD in multiple leagues. I am leaning towards Wilson as well.

Thanks for the input!

[AlexB]

PPR keeper league, I can keep two WR combos within my budget

In essence i have a choice of keeping either
Jarvis Landry, or
Jamison Crowder + Robby Anderson

Last year it would have been a no brainer to keep Landry. A lot of things have changed this year, a lot of unknowns with Tyrod Taylor, noise about Landry being utilised differently, but also Anderson and Crowder have new QBs...

Thoughts?

[bhlloy]

I was going to say even with Landry having diminished value this season he’s still a WR2 and I’d much rather have one of those than a couple of borderline WR3/4 guys, but a lot of people are really high on Anderson this season and have him rated above Landry. So YMMV.

My answer may change based on whether it’s PPR (increasing Landry’s value relative to Anderson), what other WR are out there and how deep the rosters are.

[bhlloy]

DOLA - the more I think about it, the more I really disagree with the experts on Landry this year. I think he's been on so many overrated lists he's actually massively underrated at this point.

Coleman is gone, Calloway is making a complete fuck up of his career already, he's a Josh Gordon meltdown away from being the only receiver on a team that is going to have a lot more success this year. And the QB argument makes no sense to me, Taylor is already better than Tannehill and a semi-retired Jay Cutler, and whether it's Taylor or Mayfield both are likely going to be throwing a ton of balls to a safety blanket like Landry.

If it's not PPR then yeah, I think his value goes down. But in full or even half PPR, I think he's a top 20 WR easily.

[AlexB]

I’ve been leaning that way too, but I need to make a trade to achieve either: I give up a 6th round pick to keep the two guys, a 7th for Landry.

My other keepers will be Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes, Chris Hogan and Robert Woods and I pick 4th, so i should get a top RB to add to the mix, probably a second one in the 2nd round.

I think i will go Landry, but I’m probably only 60:40 on the decision.

It is full PPR ftr, with bonuses for 100yds, receptions over 40yards, 1st downs that are significant enough to put into the equation

[bhlloy]

PPR plus bonuses for first downs? That probably pushes it to a no-brainer for me then, honestly.

Plus you already have two WR2/3 type receivers on the roster, giving up a round higher pick to keep two more doesn't make a ton of sense. At least Landry has some slight hope of being something close to the WR1 you need , that means you can go RB heavy in the first two rounds of the draft.

[albionmoonlight]

Random bottom of your roster thoughts regarding the Saints:

Cameron Meredith has sat some because of injury and has been outplayed by rookie Tre Quan Smith. If you are looking for a Saints receiver with upside to get for cheap at the end of your auction, Smith is the guy--not Meredith.

Jonathan Williams has emerged as the guy who will get Ingram's carries during his four game suspension. If you acquire Ingram, get Williams as the fill-in. Trey Edmunds, Shane Vereen, and Terrance West have done nothing to distinguish themselves.

[BishopMVP]

So, 12 keepers, I have picks 4/5 in the draft. How do people rank the rookies?

Saquan is obviously #1 with a bullet, I like Freeman a lot and am hoping he will be there at pick 4, but kind of want a backup plan if he goes top 3. I guess Rashaad Penny would be slightly above Sony Michel in the next tier? The Patriots history with RB's doesn't bother me much, but their history with rookies who miss the preseason does. Chubb seems buried in Cleveland, Jones hasn't done much in Tampa, I know Kerryon Johnson got some hype after Game 1 but he still looks to be behind Abdullah in Detroit. After Saquan/Royce Freeman is it even worth taking any of these guys over DJ Moore? Taking Derrius Guice and stashing him immediately on IR is also an option I'm considering, though I'd love to get a healthy RB with the other pick if I do that. There's also a few potential breakout "veterans" available in Devin Funchess, Kenny Golladay & the TE duo of Trey Burton & David Njoku.

[bhlloy]

I think you left Ridley out as a possibility, he's drawing rave reviews in camp and there's historically been some really decent numbers even as the #3 option behind Julio. I also don't think it's impossible he's just more talented than Sanu and gets more targets as a result, although there are a lot of mouths to feed in that offense.

Freeman scares me a bit because the Broncos really seem to want to give Devonte Booker every chance to win the job, I can see Freeman getting the majority of the carries eventually but not sure when.

Depending on who your TE is, I'd take a long look at Burton with one of those picks. He's a popular pick to be top 6 at that position this year. He's probably better than any of those second rookies you are talking about.

[BishopMVP]

Though I do agree he'll put up solid numbers from the start I left off Ridley because it's a dynasty league and I don't see him having #1 WR potential unless Julio Jones gets hurt. After Julio & their RB's there just aren't enough balls left for another 1,000 yard WR.

TE is the perennially injured Tyler Eifert, so I will look closer at Trey Burton. He definitely looks good for this year, just isn't as sexy a long term play as the rookies.

[bhlloy]

On the flip side Burton is only 26 and relatively proven, whereas some of the guys you mention might not ever be NFL starters

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

On the flip side Burton is only 26 and relatively proven, whereas some of the guys you mention might not ever be NFL starters

True enough. Normally I'd be wary about backup TE from a different team storyline, but they did sign him to a 4/$32m contract, so that speaks to them having a plan for him.

[chinaski]

Anyone have recommendations for sites/tools for drafting? Good ranking/anaylsis sites etc? Im willing to pay for them. My draft is coming up in 7 hours and I reeeaaaally dont want to place out of the money this year. (1k entry fee, 14 teams).

[bhlloy]

ultimatedraftkit.com from the Fantasy footballers is around 30 bucks, but the best money I spend every year

[chinaski]

Awesome ty!

[RainMaker]

I've got Brees and Mahomes. Thinking of trading one for a starting RB as they are scarce.

What would you say the value of one of those QBs is? Lamar Miller? Mixon? Worse?

Having two great QBs rules but I can only play one and both are as high as they'll get trade value wise.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Random bottom of your roster thoughts regarding the Saints:

Cameron Meredith has sat some because of injury and has been outplayed by rookie Tre Quan Smith. If you are looking for a Saints receiver with upside to get for cheap at the end of your auction, Smith is the guy--not Meredith.

Jonathan Williams has emerged as the guy who will get Ingram's carries during his four game suspension. If you acquire Ingram, get Williams as the fill-in. Trey Edmunds, Shane Vereen, and Terrance West have done nothing to distinguish themselves.

I certainly hope that all of you had the sense to not listen to me.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Two-parter here. First, a streaming Team D question:

With Chicago on bye, I actually have several pleasant-looking Waiver Wire options; my question is how to rank them?

• Tennessee @ Buffalo
• Baltimore @ Cleveland
• NY Jets vs Denver

I currently have them ranked in that order, though not firmly.

Second, I've had an incredibly interesting trade proposed to me, and I'm at a loss:

I get:
RB J. Conner (PIT)
WR S. Watkins (KC)

I give:
RB I. Crowell (NYJ)
WR W. Fuller V (HOU)
WR M. Jones Jr. (DET)

I think if Pitt ends up trading Bell or even if he sits out say...three more games, this could be a win for me. I love Fuller, but he's always hurt. My current RB/WR situation:

RB: Hunt (KC), Bernard (Cin), Crowell (NYJ), Collins (Bal), Riddick (DET)
WR: Jones (Atl), Fuller (Hou), Landry (Cle), Davis (Ten), Jones (DET), Doctson (Was)

I'm currently dropping Doctson for one of the waiver claim defenses listed in the first question.

Talk me out of this trade.

[Vince, Pt. II]

For my random stream-of-consciousness thoughts about the trade:

• My RB corps needs serious help.
• I don't really like Watkins, especially with all the talent in front of him for touches...but that offense has plenty to go around, and he's still got that "untapped potential" idea floating around somewhere.
• Would love to offload Fuller while he's healthy for some decent value.
• I'm not really high on Crowell.
• Jones Jr. is clearly the third (or maybe even fourth) option behind Tate and Golladay at this point, and I don't know that he's more than a home run threat which makes him borderline unplayable in Fantasy.
• This seems to be a quantity for quality swap, and I always want to be on the quality side of these things for fantasy...problem is that the quality side of things only works if Conner is the starter.

Meh.

[panerd]

Thinking about trading for Bell. Think trading Ridley and Hyde is too much to give up with the chance Bell never steps on the field? Can't imagine a trade will make him want to play but man the upside...

[BishopMVP]

will be on the field week 11 (or 12 if his team has a bye first?) so he accrues the year of service time & next year's tag would increase. I can't see him coming back & playing for Pittsburgh before then. If he gets traded who knows, but I don't think the new team would even be allowed to extend him, so he wouldn't have any animosity towards them & might choose to play for the mil a week he can get.

If you have the RB depth to give up Hyde & still compete for a playoff spot Bell should be back by then.

[BishopMVP]

Or alternatively he could show up week 7 during their bye... Le'Veon Bell to report to Steelers during Week 7

Which makes trading for Conner a bad play imo.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Or alternatively he could show up week 7 during their bye... Le'Veon Bell to report to Steelers during Week 7

Which makes trading for Conner a bad play imo.

Yeah, I think that rumor kills the Conner trade for me.

[panerd]

Thanks for the reply. So the owner balked now which actually is probably better for me. Hyde/Ridley still seems fairly even with Bell "possibly" returning week 7. Good luck getting a WR1 or RB1 in return for that uncertainty. I really need to get rid of Ridley before he comes back to Earth but Hyde should be a decent flex all season.

[Vince, Pt. II]

So despite losing Kareem Hunt, my team has managed to limp into the Championship game. Which leaves me a bunch of decisions to make about mid-level players:

QB (start 1):
Roethlisberger @ NO
Josh Allen @ NE

Both seem like solid plays; leaning Ben but not convinced either way.

RB (start 2, one RB/WR slot as well):
Josh Adams (PHI) vs Hou
Kalen Ballage (MIA) vs Jax
Kenneth Dixon (BAL) @ LAC
Peyton Barber (TB) @ Dal
John Kelly (LAR) @ Ari

This is a shit show, and I'm pretty torn. Currently rolling Adams and Ballage with a WR in the flex.

WR (start 3, with one RB/WR as well)
Julio Jones (ATL) @ Car
Corey Davis (TEN) vs Was
Jarvis Landry (CLE) vs Cin
Josh Reynolds (LAR) @ Ari

Currently starting all of them; could consider sitting Reynolds for one of the RBs but his upside is so high...

This is a 12 team league with huge rosters, so the waiver wire is practically useless.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Also, hilarious to me that all five Running Backs from my October 1st post and potential trade for Conner (ouch, that was a missed opportunity) are out for the season.

[B & B]

First off, Theo Riddick and Gio Bernard are not out for the season, but I guess you have dropped them?

I just added Ballage and John Kelly last night myself. We are in pure speculation mode, but my best guess is that LAR shuts down TG and plays it smart this weekend which makes Kelly a bonafide start. The signing of Anderson says plenty.

This is the finals of a 16 man league so there is literally trash on the waivers. Just picked up the Foster kid from Buffalo to give some perspective.

Start the 4 wr (with davis being the boom/bust IMO) and wait and see on the RBs.

Started Adams myself last week but the Hou matchup is not good. Fingers crossed for Kelly as a RB1 vs a dismal Zona.

[Vince, Pt. II]

I must have dropped them then; could have sworn Bernard was injured, strange.

Kelly is definitely the intriguing player...I just figure there's even odds he gets zero points, and that makes playing him tough.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

I must have dropped them then; could have sworn Bernard was injured, strange.

Kelly is definitely the intriguing player...I just figure there's even odds he gets zero points, and that makes playing him tough.

Who is getting the carries for the packers ? Also the Texans if miller is out.

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Who is getting the carries for the packers ? Also the Texans if miller is out.

Texans backup is Blue but he's awful. They also have Donta Foreman but he hasn't played all year.

[Maple Leafs]

For those in keeper leagues, are there are any guys out there that are poised to find themselves in a much better situation next year? Thinking especially of RBs, but could be anyone who's either hitting free agency or about to inherit a job based on someone else leaving and could be worth a speculative pickup.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

For those in keeper leagues, are there are any guys out there that are poised to find themselves in a much better situation next year? Thinking especially of RBs, but could be anyone who's either hitting free agency or about to inherit a job based on someone else leaving and could be worth a speculative pickup.

Trequan Smith has had a disappointing rookie year for the Saints. But he's got the talent, and the team is very shallow at WR. I could see him being the #2 next year. That, of course, still makes him a fringe fantasy player, but depending on your keeper rules, he might be worth stashing for a very low pick.

[bhlloy]

I wonder about Ekeler for the Chargers - in an NFL where teams are showing they are willing to trade for draft picks again, I wonder if the Chargers don’t see what they can get for him rather than having him waste away as the backup behind another workhorse in Gordon.

He’s a guy who might not be available anyway and he could easily stay in LA as a backup and get 5 carries a game, but for somebody who showed he was pretty damn good when on the field this year seems to tangentially answer the question.

[Lathum]

Unreal sweat I have going.

The idiot commish of the league for my wifes work set it up so the championship game is weeks 16-17. My team was easily the best going in to the playoffs but Gurley really screwed me.

Right now our game is tied 247-247 which is amazing. No one has anyone left after the night games.

As I type this Mayfield throws a TD for me and I am up by 2 points.

[Lathum]

Gross

A meaningless George Kittle TD wins it for him where the Rams weren't even interested in tackling him.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Unreal sweat I have going.

The idiot commish of the league for my wifes work set it up so the championship game is weeks 16-17. My team was easily the best going in to the playoffs but Gurley really screwed me.

Right now our game is tied 247-247 which is amazing. No one has anyone left after the night games.

As I type this Mayfield throws a TD for me and I am up by 2 points.

I wouldn't play in a league that had a championship game in week 17. That's just idiotic. I was pissed enough that Gurley being rested last week cost me a championship.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I wouldn't play in a league that had a championship game in week 17. That's just idiotic. I was pissed enough that Gurley being rested last week cost me a championship.

I didn't realize when I agreed to play. I wrote the guy running it earlier in the week and suggested for next year we don't include week 17. He told me thats the default setting and he didn't realize it. Which is moronic in of itself.

What is annoying is I was leading after the first week. Have to think if Gurley plays either week I win it all.

They all work for my wife and she said the guy who won doesn't make a ton of money so that is a silver lining, I don't care about the money, I wanted the title.

[TLK]

I'm almost tempted to try an 11-week regular season in 12 team leagues I run. That way everyone plays each other once and playoffs run Weeks 12-14 and miss all the resting/injury mess at the end of the season. The only drawback I see right now is the Week 12 bye week teams.

[B & B]

that's a huge drawback for the 11 week season. I mean, gurley had a w12 bye and that was before the injury. that would mean you go INTO the draft thinking about teams not to take as it would mean 1st round playoffs.

as commish, ive been pushing for years to expand to a full 14 team league so you aren't randomly forced to play 2 teams 2x.

this year I had the highest total pts in the league and lost all h2h tiebreakers to finish 7th and not make the playoffs at all.

was randomly forced to play the fourth and first placed teams 2x.