2010 College Football World Cup

[molson]

The 2009 College Football World Cup dynasty was an amusing distraction:

2009 College Football World Cup - COMPLETE! - Front Office Football Central

So now that whatifsports has posted the 2010 teams, I'll going to go ahead and run the same world cup tournament for this season, while the season is fresh in my mind.

Same format as before:

This will be a fast-moving, obnoxious, 120-team tournament, via whatifsports.com, to determine the World Cup Champion of the 2010 College Football Season. Every Div I-A team is involved.

All games will be played at a neutral site. Each game will be played in 40 degree weather with medium wind and no rain (good football weather).

I'm going to move through this quickly, not posting anything about individual or player stats unless something really catches my eye. I'll give a quick rundown of the scoring, especially in close games.

The tournament has three stages. The design is intended to give the elite teams an easier early path, but also throw enough chaos and randomness in to where a mediocre team could surprise and make a run if they get the right draw. (And the 2009 tournament showed that whatifsports.com appears to generate upsets with appropriate frequency).

Here's the format:

I GROUP STAGE:
-20 Groups of 6 teams each
-Each team plays the other 5 teams in its group once
-Top 3 teams of each group, and 4 wild cards, advance to the next round of 64
-Only 25 of the 120 teams are actually seeded. I'm using the final BCS top 25 poll of the 2010 season. The top 20 seeded teams will be placed one per group across the 20 groups.
-Teams seeded 21-25 will each randomly join one of the 20 groups (so there's a max of 2 seeded teams per group)
-All other placement is a free-for-all, using a random number generator. So luck of the draw is very important.
-In the interest of organization, I'll sim all the games of one group before I go onto the next one, rather then attempt to have everything going on at the same time.

II: PRELIMINARY KNOCK-OUT STAGE
-The 64 teams that get through the group stage are ranked 1-64. (All first place teams ranked first, then second place teams, then third place teams, then the 4 wild cards).
-#1 plays #64, #2 plays #63, #3 plays #62, etc.
-32 winners advance to the final knock-round

III: CHAMPIONSHIP KNOCK-OUT STAGE
-The final 32 teams will be seeded randomly here into a fixed, single elimination bracket. So if a so-so team manages to get through the group stage, and can pull an upset in the preliminary knock-out stage, they have a chance to get a decent path to go deep here.

Tiebreakers (both for group advancement, and seeing in future round) - slightly tweaked from 2009 World Cup Tournament

2 Team Tie:
1. Head-to Head (if applicable)
2. Point Differential in Group Stage
3. Total Points Scored in Group Stage
4. Coin Toss

3+ team tie
(If two or more teams remain tied at the end of any step, revert back to step #1).
1. Head-To-Head within tied teams (if they've all played each other)
2. Point Differential in Group Stage
4. Total Points Scored in Group Stage
5. Coin Toss


My rooting interests are the three schools I have a connection to: Syracuse, Oregon, Boise St, which hopefully keeps things somewhat interesting for me.

I'll post the groups tonight.

[molson]

GROUP 1

#1 Auburn (SEC, 8-0, 13-0)
Penn St. (Big 10, 4-4, 7-5)
Pittsburgh (Big East, 5-2, 7-5)
Tulsa (Conference USA, 6-2, 9-3)
Utah St. (WAC, 2-6, 4-8)
Wake Forest (ACC, 1-7, 3-9)

Auburn shouldn't have any problems here. There's probably room in the next round for both Penn St. and Pitt, who get a pretty favorable draw here. Tulsa probably has the best shot at sending one of those teams home early and stealing a top-3 berth, but that would be surprising.

[molson]

GROUP 2

#2 Oregon (PAC-10, 9-0, 12-0)
#24 Hawaii (WAC, 7-1, 10-3)
Iowa (Big 10, 4-4, 7-5)
Louisville (Big East, 3-4, 6-6)
Northern Illinois (Mid-American, 8-0, 10-3)
UNLV (WAC, 2-6, 2-11)

Oregon v. Hawaii for the #1 group spot could be an interesting game, they could crack 100 points combined. For the likely 3rd spot in the group, Mid-American conference powerhouse Northern Illinois will get its shot against two mediocre BCS Conference teams, Iowa and Louisville. And any of those 3 teams could pose a threat to Hawaii.

[molson]

GROUP 3

#3 TCU (MWC, 8-0, 12-0)
Akron (Mid-American, 1-7, 1-11)
East Carolina (Conference USA, 5-3, 6-6)
North Carolina St. (ACC, 5-3, 8-4)
North Carolina (ACC, 4-4, 7-5)
Rice (Conference USA 3-5, 4-8)

There's a Carolina-theme here, and NC and NC State get fortunate draws. They'll be the favorites to nail down the #2 and #3 spot after TCU, and either of them could pull an upset and win the group. East Carolina will have to upset one of their in-state rivals to have any chance to move on.

[molson]

GROUP 4

#4 Stanford (PAC-10, 8-1, 11-1)
Army (Independent, 6-6)
Syracuse (Big East, 4-3, 7-5)
Texas (Big 12, 2-6, 5-7)
Texas Tech (Big 12, 3-5, 7-5)
Tulane (Conference USA, 2-6, 4-8)

Pretty easy road for Stanford. Automatic Qualifying spots 2-3 are likely up for grabs between Army, Syracuse, Texas, and Texas Tech, with the Texas schools going in as the favorites to emerge. But there's enough balance here where the loser of that Texas/Texas Tech game could be in big trouble.

[molson]

GROUP 5

#5 Wisconsin (Big 10, 7-1, 11-1)
#21 Mississippi St. (SEC, 4-4, 8-4)
Indiana (Big 10, 1-7, 5-7)
Kentucky (SEC, 2-6, 6-6)
San Diego St. (MWC, 5-3, 8-4)
UCLA (PAC-10, 2-7, 4-8)

Two ranked teams in the group likely force the other 4 to scramble for the final automatic qualifying spot. Of those 4, Kentucky seems to be the favorite - their matchup with a decent San Diego St team might determine who moves on and who stays home.

[molson]

GROUP 6

#6 Ohio St. (Big 10, 7-1, 11-1)
Buffalo (Mid American, 1-7, 2-10)
Louisiana-Monroe (Sun Belt, 4-4, 5-7)
Navy (Independent, 9-3)
Temple (Mid-American, 5-3, 8-4)
Tennessee (SEC, 3-5, 6-6)

Navy and Tennessee are the luckiest members of this week group, they make a clear top 3 here with Ohio St, who should roll easily. Temple will need to pull an upset against one of those three to have a chance at crashing the party.

[molson]

GROUP 7

#7 Oklahoma (Big 12, 6-2, 11-2)
#23 Florida St. (ACC, 6-2, 9-4)
Boston College (ACC, 4-4, 7-5)
Brigham Young (MWC, 5-3, 6-6)
Iowa St. (Big 12, 3-5, 5-7)
Miami, FL (ACC, 5-3, 7-5)

This is the toughest group top-to-bottom yet, with no real pushovers. Oklahoma v. Florida St will likely decide the group winner, though both teams should move on. Which would leave just one automatic spot for 4 decent teams to fight over. The ACC matchup of Boston College v. Miami could determine who moves on.

[molson]

GROUP 8

#8 Arkansas (SEC, 6-2, 10-2)
Arizona (PAC-10, 4-5, 7-5)
Colorado (Big 12, 2-6, 5-7)
Colorado St. (MWC, 2-6, 3-9)
Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt, 5-3, 6-6)
Mississippi (SEC, 1-7, 4-8)

Arkansas should put up some big margins of victory. After them, it looks like Arizona, Colorado, and Mississippi competing for two spots. With two seemingly easy games against Colorado St. and Middle Tennessee available, this could also be a group where a wild card could emerge.

[molson]

GROUP 9

#9 Michigan St. (Big 10, 7-1, 11-1)
Bowling Green (Mid-American, 1-7, 2-10)
Maryland (ACC, 5-3, 8-4)
Michigan (Big 10, 3-5, 7-5)
Northwestern (Big 10, 3-5, 7-5)
Southern Mississippi (Conference USA, 5-3, 8-4)

The trio of Big 10 teams could be the favorites to advance, though Maryland probably would have something to say about that. It wouldn't be too shocking either to see Southern Mississippi pull an upset or two.

[molson]

GROUP 10

#10 Boise St. (WAC, 7-1, 11-1)
Central Michigan (Mid American, 2-6, 3-9)
New Mexico St. (MWC, 1-7, 1-11)
Rutgers (Big East, 1-6, 4-8)
San Jose St. (WAC, 0-8, 1-12)
UTEP (Conference USA, 3-5, 6-6)

Boise St. gets a laughably easy draw here - they should post a bunch of blowouts and could earn a point differential that earns them a top 5 seed in the next round. Great draw for Rutgers, who I guess is the favorite to earn the #2 spot. The Central Michigan v. UTEP matchup winner would probably have the inside track for the #3 spot. And in a group this weak, you can't even rule out San Jose St. or New Mexico St, who could be just a minor upset or two from getting to the round of 64.

[molson]

GROUP 11

#11 LSU (SEC, 6-2, 10-2)
Air Force (MWC, 5-3, 8-4)
Illinois (Big 10, 4-4, 6-6)
Ohio (Mid American, 6-2, 8-4)
Oregon St. (PAC-10, 4-5, 5-7)
Toledo (Mid American 7-1, 8-4)

Much stronger group here, where even the smaller conference teams are pretty good. Really, after LSU, it looks like a total tossup in the group from spots 2-6.

[molson]

GROUP 12

#12 Missouri (Big 12, 6-2, 10-2)
Connecticut (Big East, 5-2, 8-4)
Florida International (Sun Belt, 6-2, 6-6)
Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt, 3-5, 4-8)
Fresno St. (WAC, 5-3, 8-4)
Houston (Conference USA, 4-4, 5-7)

Two Sun Belt teams in the group make the other 4 teams in the group very happy. UConn is the clear favorite to get the #2 spot, which would make the opening week Fresno St. v. Houston matchup critical to the destiny of both teams.

[molson]

GROUP 13

#13 Virginia Tech (ACC, 8-0, 11-2)
#25 Central Florida (Conference USA, 7-1, 10-3)
Florida (SEC, 4-4, 7-5)
Louisiana Tech (WAC, 4-4, 5-7)
Virginia (ACC, 1-7, 4-8)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt, 2-6, 2-10)

Good draw for Florida and Central Florida, who are clear favorites to advance here along with Virginia Tech. No group yet has such a seemingly clear drop-off between the top 3 and the bottom 3.

[molson]

GROUP 14

#14 Oklahoma St. (Big 12, 6-2, 10-2)
Ball St. (Mid-American, 3-5, 4-8)
Baylor (Big 12, 4-4, 7-5)
Kansas (Big 12, 1-7, 3-9)
Marshall (Conference USA, 4-4, 5-7)
Miami, OH (Mid-American, 7-1, 9-4).

It will be interesting to see how Kansas, a bad Big 12 team, fares in a likely battle for the #3 spot with Miami of Ohio, a solid smaller conference team. Marshall and Ball St. lurk for an opportunity if either Kansas or Miami falters. Baylor v. Oklahoma St in a Big 12 battle should determine the group winner.

[molson]

GROUP 15

#15 Nevada (WAC, 7-1, 12-1)
Arizona St. (PAC-10, 4-5, 6-6)
UAB (Conference USA, 3-5, 4-8)
Vanderbilt (SEC, 1-7, 2-10)
Western Michigan (Mid-American, 5-3, 6-6)
Washington (PAC-10, 5-4, 6-6)

Nevada gets a pretty good draw here, and the PAC-10 representatives of Arizona St. and Washington fill out the favorites to advance. The loser of the Arizona St./Washington game though, will have limited margin for error with Western Michigan hanging around.

[molson]

GROUP 16

#16 Alabama (SEC, 5-3, 9-3)
South Florida (Big East, 3-4, 7-5)
Troy (Sun Belt, 6-2, 7-5)
USC (PAC-10, 5-4, 8-5)
Washington St. (PAC-10, 1-8, 2-10)
Wyoming (MWC, 1-7, 3-9)

Alabama has a chance for some lopsided games here, enough to make sure their seeding in the next round is a lot higher than #16. USC and South Florida get an excellent draw, and they're the favorites to nab the next two automatic spots. Perennial sun belt powerhouse Troy is not quite what they've been in recent years, it's tough to see them (or anyone else) crashing the party of the big 3 in the group.

[molson]

GROUP 17

#17 Texas A&M (Big 12, 6-2, 9-3)
#22 West Virginia (Big East, 5-2, 9-3)
Cincinnati (Big East, 2-5, 4-8)
Clemson (ACC, 4-4, 6-6)
Duke (ACC, 1-7, 3-9)
Eastern Michigan (Mid-American, 2-6, 2-10)

Clemson benefits from a great draw here. The two ranked teams seem like locks to advance, and then Clemson is the clear best of a very weak group of 4 looking for the #3 spot.

[molson]

GROUP 18

#18 Nebraska (Big 12, 6-2, 10-3)
California (PAC 10, 3-6, 5-7)
Idaho (WAC, 3-5, 6-7)
Memphis (Conference USA, 1-8, 1-11)
Minnesota (Big 10, 2-6, 3-9)
New Mexico (MWC, 1-7, 1-11)

In another very week group, Minnesota maybe gotten the luckiest draw in the tournament. They had a terrible 2010, but might be the favorite to get the #3 spot here after Nebraska and Cal. They probably only need to get by Idaho, as New Mexico and Memphis are two of the worst teams in the entire tournament. Great opportunity for Nebraska to improve their seeding for the second stage.

[molson]

GROUP 19

#19 Utah (MWC, 7-1, 10-2)
Arkansas St. (Sun Belt, 4-4, 4-8)
Georgia Tech (ACC, 4-4, 6-6)
Georgia (SEC, 3-5, 6-6)
Kansas St. (Big 12, 3-5, 7-5)
North Texas (Sun Belt, 3-5, 3-9)

Utah, who is maybe the most vulnerable of the ranked teams, gets a very fortunate draw and should have no trouble advance. Georgia, Georgia Tech, and Kansas St. will likely do battle for 2 spots.

[molson]

GROUP 20

#20 South Carolina (SEC, 5-3, 9-4)
Kent St. (Mid-American, 4-4, 5-7)
Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt, 3-5, 3-9)
Notre Dame (Independent, 7-5)
Purdue (Big 10, 2-6, 4-8)
Southern Methodist (Conference USA, 6-2, 7-6)

This group is a little stronger than it may look at first. South Carolina and Notre Dame look good to advance, but Purdue will have its hands full with SMU. And Kent St. and and LA-Lafayette, while not a real threat, could pull an upset somewhere along the way to shake things up.