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Old 04-07-2020, 02:40 PM   #3401
Brian Swartz
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The next spike is apparently here today, 1500+ so far. Hoping there aren't many more to come.
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Old 04-07-2020, 02:42 PM   #3402
ISiddiqui
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Originally Posted by albionmoonlight View Post
With all the crazy going on, it probably has to do with the competence/dedication of the person doing it for them. I can't imagine stores are in a position to train people, etc. right now.

Yeah, I'd argue this. I'm quite positive that whether or not we'll get packages delivered to our door by USPS (I live in apartment) depends on the postal carrier. Before COVID 19, all packages would go to the leasing office. But the leasing office has closed up and asked all delivery folk to drop packages off at apartment doors instead. No issue for FedEx or UPS.

My neighbor was waiting on a USPS package that should have arrived. She called in and they said, oh we aren't doing door to door deliveries in your apartment building for the safety of our carriers. My neighbor is immunocompromised and has mobility issues. Having her go to the post office would have been ridiculous.

Especially since I was positive I saw a USPS mail carrier going door to door the week before.

So today the same USPS mail carrier is delivering things door to door (we got a bunch of stuff - including something that was mailed to us but they told the sender that they are holding it at the post office for pickup) and delivered my neighbor's package.

I'm convinced that we have one good USPS mail carrier and she only works like once a week or something. And the other USPS mail carriers are just lazy.
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Old 04-07-2020, 02:50 PM   #3403
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Thomkal and Fozzie, do you use Firefox by chance?
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Old 04-07-2020, 02:51 PM   #3404
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Thomkal and Fozzie, do you use Firefox by chance?


I do
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Old 04-07-2020, 03:02 PM   #3405
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I do
In the URL bar type:

about:config

Go through the warning screen. In the search box paste:

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Change the value from true to false.

You won't have a bunch of extra line breaks when making posts. It won't mess with anything else.
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Old 04-07-2020, 03:08 PM   #3406
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done
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Old 04-07-2020, 03:17 PM   #3407
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This is the best thing ever...especially for Ohioans

DEWINE & AMY OPENING THEME - YouTube

lt gov Husted doing the Carmine Big Ragu dance spins just kills me

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Old 04-07-2020, 03:19 PM   #3408
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In the URL bar type:

about:config

Go through the warning screen. In the search box paste:

editor.use_div_for_default_newlines

Change the value from true to false.

You won't have a bunch of extra line breaks when making posts. It won't mess with anything else.

I use chrome. weird
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Old 04-07-2020, 03:23 PM   #3409
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In the URL bar type:

about:config

Go through the warning screen. In the search box paste:

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Change the value from true to false.

You won't have a bunch of extra line breaks when making posts. It won't mess with anything else.

You, sir, are a lifesaver.

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Old 04-07-2020, 03:31 PM   #3410
Radii
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Originally Posted by Brian Swartz View Post
The next spike is apparently here today, 1500+ so far. Hoping there aren't many more to come.

I wonder about this since those numbers dropped sunday and monday. This happened last week too but the scale was so much smaller then. It might jive with what whomario (or AlexB I forget, my apologies) had posted about officially counting and reporting issues from the weekend lagging into the work week for a couple days. Of course we know we're not at the peak yet here, so it could be either, or both?
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Old 04-07-2020, 04:14 PM   #3411
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Alex posted a BBC link explaining it for the UK, i mostly assume it as common sense and past Weekends going the same. I think it is a mix of both, just seems logical that even in a crisis you will have less staff sundays at the labs.

But a spike was always inevitable, simply due to the 2-3 week delay between peak cases and peak deaths. And even after the shutdown people will still infect others, mostly im their household. They will infect less people, but if the number was high then it will still increase the total.

And that increase in cases/infected mean more hospitalised/ICU and that means less optimal care for each patient even if you manage to find a bed/ventilator for everybody. Abd more tests means longer wait time for results or notification leading to people coming into the hospital or into the Covid ward too late ...

Just a big snowball effect, which is why it is so crucial to avoid these sudden steep peaks and should be a stark warning for other states
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Old 04-07-2020, 04:18 PM   #3412
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Really interesting, if beyond my knowledge, discussions about how to use ventilators, focusing on individual hypoxia issues rather than pneumonia protocols. Doctors around the globe are discovering that this approach may provide much better outcomes for the most critically ill.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog...acute-covid-19
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Old 04-07-2020, 04:21 PM   #3413
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I read something about how people dying at home are not counting. The numbers are dramatically up but because they were never tested they don't count. Number is likely considerably higher.

Staggering Surge Of NYers Dying In Their Homes Suggests City Is Undercounting Coronavirus Fatalities - Gothamist
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Old 04-07-2020, 04:25 PM   #3414
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CDC paper shows a very high R0 rating for Covid-19.

Quote:
we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7

Previous estimates were around 2.5.
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Old 04-07-2020, 04:26 PM   #3415
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All countries i know of, the hardest hit regions really seem to be those with large initial numbers of cases and big cities or events facilitating an unnoticed spread. Even after a lockdown or other measures they already had too many to supress that first wave.

Seattle region seems to have been able to squash the initial outbreak because it still was decently few "Patient 0", whereas New York just couldn't track those and had more.

Same pattern in Italy or Spain, Germany too essentially has a very linear amount of increases linked to the origin regions of the initial wave of Holiday returnees from Italy and Austria (an earlier outbreak based on connections to china was actually contained).

The only outliers are big regional events.The region if Heinsberg f.e. in Germany has the biggest density of cases in Germany and it all started with 1 infected person attending a big carnival festivity. Even now almost all cases in the region can be traced back there.
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Old 04-07-2020, 04:38 PM   #3416
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JPhillips View Post
CDC paper shows a very high R0 rating for Covid-19.



Previous estimates were around 2.5.

Could you post the link ?

To be fair, R0 is not a static number but is dependent on circumstances and especially with a new disease you will get a wide spread of results depending on where and when you try and calculate it.
That's why many experts will talk about the goal being to lower it to 1 with enough measures in place.

There is an inherent quality/quantity based on the properties of a virus but there's lots of factors. For example Influenza is about 1.4/1.5 but if you were to find a population of Humans without ever coming in contact with it, that number would jump a lot and even now this will be higher in cities versus country and lower in regions with lots of vaccination or many cases the year before.
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Last edited by whomario : 04-07-2020 at 04:41 PM.
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Old 04-07-2020, 04:45 PM   #3417
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Originally Posted by RainMaker View Post
I read something about how people dying at home are not counting. The numbers are dramatically up but because they were never tested they don't count. Number is likely considerably higher.

Staggering Surge Of NYers Dying In Their Homes Suggests City Is Undercounting Coronavirus Fatalities - Gothamist

This probably isn't all (or perhaps even most) Covid patients, however. I have seen a few reports where NYC ER docs are commenting how they aren't seeing many heart attack/stroke patients when they get far more of them - speculation is that people with milder chest pain/arm numbness, etc. are more wary of going to the hospital because they don't want to get Covid 19, but end up dying of cardiac arrest (or other treatable ER diseases).
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Old 04-07-2020, 04:58 PM   #3418
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Coronavirus: Paris bans daytime outdoor exercise - BBC News

Quote:
Authorities in Paris have banned exercise outside during the day, as deaths from coronavirus continue to rise in France daily.
The new rules are in force between 10:00 and 19:00 local time, and come into effect on Wednesday.

Am I missing something, or is that not just going to lead to everyone exercising at the same time, increasing the risk of closer contact?
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Old 04-07-2020, 05:00 PM   #3419
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I guess during the day is the time people with necessary tasks are out and about, so exercisers can be out a different time.

But we start banning exercise I don't know if that's going to be great for the hospital workloads.
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Old 04-07-2020, 05:05 PM   #3420
whomario
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Originally Posted by AlexB View Post
Coronavirus: Paris bans daytime outdoor exercise - BBC News



Am I missing something, or is that not just going to lead to everyone exercising at the same time, increasing the risk of closer contact?

Not sure how many will want to go for a run out after dark. They want ton discourage the ones that go more for catching some sun, less because they actually run an hour. It is cynical, but makes sense ...

It is born out of desperation and not logic anyway. They are at a point where there are only shitty solutions because they need to stop every possible infection since they are so much past capacity everywhere. Kinda like the NBAs luxury tax where it increases the more you are past the limit ...
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Last edited by whomario : 04-07-2020 at 05:09 PM.
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Old 04-07-2020, 06:17 PM   #3421
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whomario View Post
Could you post the link ?

To be fair, R0 is not a static number but is dependent on circumstances and especially with a new disease you will get a wide spread of results depending on where and when you try and calculate it.
That's why many experts will talk about the goal being to lower it to 1 with enough measures in place.

There is an inherent quality/quantity based on the properties of a virus but there's lots of factors. For example Influenza is about 1.4/1.5 but if you were to find a population of Humans without ever coming in contact with it, that number would jump a lot and even now this will be higher in cities versus country and lower in regions with lots of vaccination or many cases the year before.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
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Old 04-07-2020, 06:24 PM   #3422
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In the URL bar type:

about:config

Go through the warning screen. In the search box paste:

editor.use_div_for_default_newlines

Change the value from true to false.

You won't have a bunch of extra line breaks when making posts. It won't mess with anything else.

That's great man. I gave up long ago.
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Old 04-07-2020, 06:55 PM   #3423
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Cheers !

As i understand it they concentrated on the initial 'raw' spread in Wuhan before anybody in the public or most doctors even were fully aware of it. I think that that knowledge alone already makes a huge difference for everything after, which they kind of allude to:

Quote:
The estimated R0 can be lower if the serial interval is shorter. However, recent studies reported that persons can be infectious for a long period, such as 1–3 weeks after symptom onset (18; R. Woelfel et al., unpub data. Error: DOI Not Found Link); thus, we believe that a mean serial interval shorter than 6 days is unlikely during the early outbreak in Wuhan, where infected persons were not rapidly hospitalized.

Basically i think what the article boils down to is that it depends a lot on how many and how soon you can trace/isolate people from the general population. Early on in the pandemic it did not happen at all and then it was also neglected (the "lets wait if it actually us bad"/herd immunity crowd), bungled (US testing desaster) or just failed due to bad 'luck' in a lot of the countries hit after China with exceptions like Korea, Austria and Germany.

If you think about it, Social Distancing and Lockdowns esentially have the same effect, only kind of 'in reverse'. If you can't isolate enough people individually, reduce contact as much as possible for as many people as possible. Then those infected at the time will still infect their Share, but largely people they live with or other known contacts. Gives a way in for tracing efforts to pick up the bread crumbs once numbers eventually drop to a manageable level.

At least that is my takeaway combined with what else we know/have seen ...
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Last edited by whomario : 04-07-2020 at 07:05 PM.
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Old 04-07-2020, 06:59 PM   #3424
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Originally Posted by ISiddiqui View Post
This probably isn't all (or perhaps even most) Covid patients, however. I have seen a few reports where NYC ER docs are commenting how they aren't seeing many heart attack/stroke patients when they get far more of them - speculation is that people with milder chest pain/arm numbness, etc. are more wary of going to the hospital because they don't want to get Covid 19, but end up dying of cardiac arrest (or other treatable ER diseases).

Hard to blame them. I have to go to the hospital for treatment next Monday and I am terrified. I go to the cancer ward (I do not have cancer) and rationally I know that and the maternity ward are likely the safest place in the hospital at this point, but just the thought of parking and walking through the doors horrifies me.
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Old 04-07-2020, 07:15 PM   #3425
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Originally Posted by AlexB View Post
Coronavirus: Paris bans daytime outdoor exercise - BBC News

Am I missing something, or is that not just going to lead to everyone exercising at the same time, increasing the risk of closer contact?

I was going to speculate that maybe there's a curfew after 19:00?

SI
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Old 04-08-2020, 10:55 AM   #3426
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Is anyone else thinking that maybe we're going too far?

Father arrested for playing with daughter in park, citing coronavirus restrictions
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Old 04-08-2020, 11:26 AM   #3427
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Originally Posted by NobodyHere View Post
Is anyone else thinking that maybe we're going too far?

Father arrested for playing with daughter in park, citing coronavirus restrictions

Quote:
In a statement, the Brighton Police Department said it was "deeply sorry" for the incident and is conducting an internal investigation.

"While the investigation sorts through the different versions of what took place by witnesses who were at the park, it is evident there was an overreach by our police officers," the statement said. "It is imperative that we improve communication with our front line first responders so they are up to date on the latest rules in place regarding COVID-19 for addressing public safety."

Seems like the police department agrees that we're going too far.
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Old 04-08-2020, 11:27 AM   #3428
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Not sure how many will want to go for a run out after dark. They want ton discourage the ones that go more for catching some sun, less because they actually run an hour. It is cynical, but makes sense ...

That was my thought. I think they want to prevent the folks that are just hanging out in the sun on a nice day and saying "oh, this is my exercise". People who are actually going to go exercise will do so after dark, but those who are just joywalking (for lack of a better word) may not.
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Old 04-08-2020, 11:32 AM   #3429
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Is anyone else thinking that maybe we're going too far?

Father arrested for playing with daughter in park, citing coronavirus restrictions

I think the obvious problem here would be a lack of communication/guideline for the officers and them severely overreaction/jumping like half a dozen steps going straight for the cuffs.

In general it really depends on why the Park was closed: are all parks closed (which is stupid because you rather want people in Parks than other peoples Garden) or was this park closed especially because it usually is highly frequented and adherence to social distancing would be problematic if frequented like usually ? If the latter it's a bit more grey as far as asking them to leave, but certainly cuffing is still weird to put it mildly unless he was going berserk or sth...

The latter is how it is handled in Germany. In principal Parks are open (but playgrounds/playstructures closed), but can be both closed as a precaution (if they are bound to be the No1 choice for too many) or be evicted if too many people are gathered.
Plus you are encouraged to not put down roots, but officers use discretion and will be way more lenient if it is your virtually empty neighbourhood park versus you travelling across town or further to lie in the sun in the prettiest spot with a few hundred others around (which is why certain natural hotspots get closed, that way people will be spread out over more different parks).
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Last edited by whomario : 04-08-2020 at 11:36 AM.
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Old 04-08-2020, 12:45 PM   #3430
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Is anyone else thinking that maybe we're going too far?

Father arrested for playing with daughter in park, citing coronavirus restrictions

It is obvious that the police officers went too far but I have been wrong about these things before.
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Old 04-08-2020, 12:52 PM   #3431
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It is obvious that the police officers went too far but I have been wrong about these things before.

It certainly seems like the police went too far. I also wouldn't be surprised if the dad was a dick and it seems like he could have avoided the situation by complying. Still, to cuff a guy in front of his kid like that is beyond stupid.

I am curious why he is a former police officer and if he has some kind of ax to grind with law enforcement.
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Old 04-08-2020, 01:37 PM   #3432
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One almost ancient butbpromising treatment option i don't think was mentioned yet here: Plasma transfusions (collected from recovered patients). The scientific/medical community in Germany/Austria thinks it very promising and extensive studies are underway, already promising results in small studies in China and South Korea.

And contrary to some other options this is actually geared towards the already very sick, If i understand it correctly. And can reasonably be used even before clinical studies are completed.
Main issue is actually getting enough blood donations to 'produce' enough plasma.
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Old 04-08-2020, 02:22 PM   #3433
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First person semi-close to us that sounds like a strong possibility, and frightening. A kid in my oldest daughter's grade (5th). He has been in the same homeroom as her several times. The mom (who wrote the post) has become a friend over the years, and this year she is our youngest daughter's reading teacher.


He's 11.
Turns out no COVID-19, but he's still in the hospital. Improving though.
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Old 04-08-2020, 02:29 PM   #3434
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On a sadder note, the team I work on went from 7 members to 3 at the end of last week due to layoffs. One of the remaining three is based in NJ. He lost his wife to COVID-19 yesterday. Two kids, both in high school, are also left behind.
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Old 04-08-2020, 02:34 PM   #3435
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Oh man. That's brutal. So sad...
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Old 04-08-2020, 04:17 PM   #3436
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On a sadder note, the team I work on went from 7 members to 3 at the end of last week due to layoffs. One of the remaining three is based in NJ. He lost his wife to COVID-19 yesterday. Two kids, both in high school, are also left behind.

It's getting really bad here. We have a town pretty close by that has a very large religious population, in the tens of thousands. To avoid sounding like I have a problem with the religion itself I will leave it out. They firmly believe the laws of their god overrides the laws of the state. Because of this they have been having large weddings, going to religious services, etc...to the point of where the police were regularly breaking up gatherings and it was rumored the state national guard was called in. Isiddiqui will know where I mean.

Fast forward now and massive amounts of them are now overflowing all the area hospitals. My cousin is a nurse and said it is to the point that some of them have even been going out of state. It has had a pretty profound effect on our system. This town has by far the most cases in the county, 825. The next closest has 325 despite both towns having a similar population.
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Old 04-08-2020, 04:25 PM   #3437
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Re: Testing and going back to work.

Normal tests won't Help this. Need an antigen test (Rapid antigen test - Wikipedia) that will show both current and past infection.
Which is in the works all over the globe and essentially ready, just not accurate enough yet to trust it using it widely.

Normal lab Tests wont do any good because you need an instant result and get testet at least every 3-4 days* and since the labs Take 2-3 days mostly even now you will have to wait at home every few days awaiting results. Just because you don't have it one day dies not guarantee you won't catch itba day later from your spouse, kid or a random person. And wait time would be more with more tests. Aside from that, the needed chemical supply is stretched thin already.

*Time from Infection to the point where you start spreading it.

still need to be cautious (likely less acurate than a PCR lab test) and thus i doubt it will be the only tool used. And the firs batch produced should be used in hospitals and retirement homes.
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Last edited by whomario : 04-08-2020 at 04:34 PM.
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Old 04-08-2020, 04:33 PM   #3438
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It's getting really bad here. We have a town pretty close by that has a very large religious population, in the tens of thousands. To avoid sounding like I have a problem with the religion itself I will leave it out. They firmly believe the laws of their god overrides the laws of the state. Because of this they have been having large weddings, going to religious services, etc...to the point of where the police were regularly breaking up gatherings and it was rumored the state national guard was called in. Isiddiqui will know where I mean.

Fast forward now and massive amounts of them are now overflowing all the area hospitals. My cousin is a nurse and said it is to the point that some of them have even been going out of state. It has had a pretty profound effect on our system. This town has by far the most cases in the county, 825. The next closest has 325 despite both towns having a similar population.

My wife runs a dog rescue that sends dogs from Memphis to NJ.

We had some members of this community that wanted to foster, but transport on Saturday so they couldn't pick the dogs up and no one was willing to drive to that community.
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Old 04-08-2020, 04:34 PM   #3439
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It's getting really bad here. We have a town pretty close by that has a very large religious population, in the tens of thousands. To avoid sounding like I have a problem with the religion itself I will leave it out. They firmly believe the laws of their god overrides the laws of the state. Because of this they have been having large weddings, going to religious services, etc...to the point of where the police were regularly breaking up gatherings and it was rumored the state national guard was called in. Isiddiqui will know where I mean.

Fast forward now and massive amounts of them are now overflowing all the area hospitals. My cousin is a nurse and said it is to the point that some of them have even been going out of state. It has had a pretty profound effect on our system. This town has by far the most cases in the county, 825. The next closest has 325 despite both towns having a similar population.

I don't know the percentages, but a lot of the cases here in Orange County, NY are in the Hasid community in Kiryas Joel.
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Old 04-08-2020, 04:40 PM   #3440
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Every time i see a public figure wear a N95 or better mask i want to punch them considering the lack of those for healthcare workers.
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Old 04-08-2020, 04:48 PM   #3441
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This seems bad.

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Old 04-08-2020, 04:49 PM   #3442
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It also sounds like if they start counting people who died in their homes as COVID deaths, the numbers are going to jump a lot more too.

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Old 04-08-2020, 05:00 PM   #3443
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I don't know the percentages, but a lot of the cases here in Orange County, NY are in the Hasid community in Kiryas Joel.

yeah. Same community here in Jersey.
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Old 04-08-2020, 05:01 PM   #3444
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My wife runs a dog rescue that sends dogs from Memphis to NJ.

We had some members of this community that wanted to foster, but transport on Saturday so they couldn't pick the dogs up and no one was willing to drive to that community.

That was smart of them to say no. An Uber driver posted a thread in the local facebook group about how he got a call to the hospital to pick up a member of that community because her husband wouldn't do it on the sabbath. The orderly apparently tipped the driver off she was positive and he refused the ride.
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Old 04-08-2020, 05:02 PM   #3445
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This seems bad.



In the long term all this means that people even more so need to get access and incentive to get vaccinated. If the vaccine does not work, then i'll worry.
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Old 04-08-2020, 05:47 PM   #3446
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My state is having a difficult time processing all of the unemployment claims. There are protections against evictions not happening immediately (including the courts being closed), but it is a very dire situation for a lot of people who live paycheck-to-paycheck. I think we're underestimating the impact of that.

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Old 04-08-2020, 06:12 PM   #3447
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It also sounds like if they start counting people who died in their homes as COVID deaths, the numbers are going to jump a lot more too.


The only numbers that are worth looking at are total deaths compared to previous years’ averages. That will give the true impact
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Old 04-08-2020, 06:55 PM   #3448
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The only numbers that are worth looking at are total deaths compared to previous years’ averages. That will give the true impact

I think people dying at more than 3 times the usual rate in New York (and likely 5+ in Lombardy f.e ) while trying everything to prevent it is a decent clue how that turns out or at least would turned out if one wouldn't combat it agressively and would have allowed it to freely spread everywhere.
I can already imagine people looking at excess mortality for the year and going "hey, wasn't so bad", when the reason for "hey, wasn't so bad" will be the extreme measures taken. Which in turn will have a significant knock-on effect in future years.

Yes, people dying from Covid are older and have health issues. But that is not sth exclusive to this illness, that's the same profile as the average death in general in normal years present with. Most people over 70 have one or more underlying conditions but would still have 10 years to live (Statistically in Germany if you reach 80 you still on average have 9-10 years to live depending on Gender).
Only now there are way more of those in regions the virus was not stopped/controlled in time. In a way this is like the flu in that it kills the same 'demographic'. Only in regions it spreads wildly it kills 2-3 times more people in a day than the flu in a a bad year claims in a week. That is excess mortality right there.

Sorry if you did not mean it like that, touchy subject for me.
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Old 04-08-2020, 06:57 PM   #3449
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My state is having a difficult time processing all of the unemployment claims. There are protections against evictions not happening immediately (including the courts being closed), but it is a very dire situation for a lot of people who live paycheck-to-paycheck. I think we're underestimating the impact of that.

It amazes me that many of these systems are still written in COBOL. Obviously they can’t be scaled up to handle the demand.
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Old 04-08-2020, 07:05 PM   #3450
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It amazes me that many of these systems are still written in COBOL. Obviously they can’t be scaled up to handle the demand.

Had to look it up, but damn ....

Wanted: People who know a half century-old computer language so states can process unemployment claims - CNN

Have to show this to my mate who is bitching about the 6,7 year old software at his insurance company ...
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