COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Arles

This comes back to my issue with all these articles from experts. They are making an assumption that because the less than 2% sample numbers in each state don't show a decline - that means the virus isn't decreasing. You have to look at the testing rates. If 100 people a day were testing April and now we are testing 500 a day in a state, the numbers aren't going to decrease (even if the number of people with virus has actually decreased if you counted everyone). Back on April 24, 8.7% of those tested in Arizona had the virus (6,045/69,486). As of today, that percentage had decreased to 7.6% (11,380/150,241). That number doesn't get reported, we just see "record number of cases" because the state has done 30K new tests in the past 2-3 weeks.

At this point, I don't think it is silly to try some restricted openings in some states that haven't been hit as hard. If your hospital bed use has been a lower, flat number (ie, 10%) - you have the safety net to begin rolling back some of the restrictions. The reality is the media is going to scare about 40-50% to stay inside anyway - so if you have a good set of guidelines for the other half to follow, things may be able to re-open slowly. But, at some point, we have to begin this process - if only to find out what things work/don't work and what steps seem to be safer. People are not just going to stay inside all summer. As the shelter in place months increase, people are going to get fed up and go back out (esp younger people). Finding out steps that can help reduce the danger of that while everyone is somewhat patient is better than just "releasing the hounds" in September.

This is a good point, percentage of positive tests in conjunction with hospital rates is a much better indicator and since I trend a lot of Covid 19 data as part of my daily duties for the healthplan I work for, the hospitalization rates in Arizona have shown a gradual decline wince the peak in the period between 04/05 to 04/12 despite 7 of the 8 highest days of new infections occurring April 28th or after, which is accounted for the ramp up in testing.

At this point, we are on the back side of the plateau (barely) in Arizona, which I say with the very real disclaimer that we could have at least one more minor spike in the combined data during this "season" of Covid 19 as things relax, as there are obviously many more infected people out there that we are not aware of. This will lead to a very real risk of vulnerable folks getting infected if too many people get reckless and increase the exposure opportunities of the vulnerable.

[Arles]

Yeah, that's a good distinction. Saying people can get a haircut if masks are worn and social distancing followed isn't akin to saying 300 people can go hang out in a bar on Mill.

Slowly re-opening some businesses in a safe way doesn't have to mean "everyone can do what they want". I wouldn't support a state doing that at this point.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Arles

You don't think Texas can provide similar incentives? The cost of doing business in California is so massive that there's a reason very few people manufacture there. That's the reason Telsa needs all those subsidies. I think the PR aspect of manufacturing in California is a main reason Telsa stays there, but that only goes so far. Other states (esp Texas and Nevada) could easily provide a much better environment for manufacturing than Cali.

I don't think Texas is as keen on subsidies for air quality as California is. Don't see the Governor giving a speech on climate change anytime soon.

California lets them sell credits to other auto manufacturers. It's a huge part of their business model. Their business is about subsidies so there is a chance that some state just pays them more to run their business. But California has some of the best ones for green companies and most of their cars are sold there. He isn't moving.

[Arles]

I agree that it is unlikely - Musk like the cachet of being the only manufacturer in California. But, it is a reasonable threat that he moves to a more business friendly state - provided they could provide similar incentives.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Arles

Musk like the cachet of being the only manufacturer in California.

Auto manufacturer. California has 36,000 manufacturing firms and has $316billion of manufacturing output (which had been rising steadily). He's far from the only manufacturer in a state that is well known for manufacturing.

https://www.nam.org/state-manufactur...cturing-facts/

(edit: updated with NAM info)

[Arles]

Good point, California has a massive food manufacturing industry because of the climate. I was just talking about auto manufacturing.

[ISiddiqui]

It's actually mostly computers & electronics, then chemicals. Then food after that (though computers & electronics is 3 times as big as food & bev manufacturing).

[Arles]

Yeah, I get mixed up on what is "agriculture" and what is "food manufacturing".

[EagleFan]

I've been convinced...

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

Day 1 homeschooling the kids and I've already reached 'murderous rage' levels a couple times. This should be fun.

Not to single Fidatelo out, I just wanted to see how everyone has coping with the homeschooling/e-learning since it started.

For my 12 year old, I am the one who usually handles helping with homework and dealing with his teachers on a normal basis so it was not that much of an adjustment to move to e-learning. The one surprise has been statistics. When did statistics become something that began in sixth grade? I know most of the good and bad that comes with dealing with him when it comes to school work. He is a good to great student, he is not an enthusiastic student. It can be like pulling teeth to get him started on most days. Once he gets on a roll, things have gone smoothly. I already know he will be the kid who take mostly afternoon/ night classes in college. Grades have been been consistent with or a little above what he was getting for the first three nine weeks. He has made it perfectly clear that he can't wait to back to the classroom and he absolutely hates e-learning. To quote him "You don't let anything slide Dad!"

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Arles

I would recommend looking at the entire picture of a state - not just if the case totals are increasing. Compare hospital bed use, ICU beds, ventilators, positive test rate, etc over the past month and see where you are at. If you are still high on many of these metrics, maybe you wait. But, if you aren't, it seems reasonable to start rolling back restrictions while trying to keep as much social distancing and mask use as possible.

Or you try to go low enough to actually be able to replace brute force measures with smarter, more individual ones and not have to play catchup forever just hoping it does not go higher. There's a good case to be made that 2,3 weeks more of lockdown (or more stringency in the short term) then enables a lot more to open up with a lot less risk of a sudden backslide that is sneaking up on you because you miss this or that hotspot/development or misjudge likelihood of transmission in some settings).

That seems the real problem to me, there seems no plan in place to 'counter' the opening up in some places. In general i think there is by far not enough focus on local ability to identify cases early and trace and quarantine contacts.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Arles

Yeah, that's a good distinction. Saying people can get a haircut if masks are worn and social distancing followed isn't akin to saying 300 people can go hang out in a bar on Mill.

Slowly re-opening some businesses in a safe way doesn't have to mean "everyone can do what they want". I wouldn't support a state doing that at this point.

The problem is half the countries population doesnt actually care to follow basic recommended practices of wearing a mask, being 6 feet apart, washing hands etc...and even a large portion seems hell bent on actively rebelling against recommended practices.

I'm generally in favor of slowly reopening, and I think if people actually do what should do things will be ok. But I'm very concerned about what people will actually do

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Danny

The problem is half the countries population doesnt actually care to follow basic recommended practices of wearing a mask, being 6 feet apart, washing hands etc...and even a large portion seems hell bent on actively rebelling against recommended practices.

We all want to reopen. We all want to keep illness and death to a minimum.

And the biggest roadblock to reopening at this point seems to be people who are taking it as a point of political pride to not take basic precautions to keep others safe.

I am not sure why the Chamber of Commerce style Republicans aren't going after the MAGA "Jesus didn't wear no mask, and I ain't either" types who are making things so much harder on everyone and trying to shame them into oblivion.

A vocal and stubborn minority is making things a lot harder for the vast majority of us who all want the same things.

(That last sentence could probably double as a tl;dr for all of human history).

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Not to single Fidatelo out, I just wanted to see how everyone has coping with the homeschooling/e-learning since it started.

It's been rough here. I'm legitimately not a good teacher. I don't have much patience and I do a poor job of explaining things. I got fired (EDIT: from teaching, by my kids), and my wife has ended up doing the lion's share of the helping since. I still try to help, and I handle a lot of the administrative tasks (printing out assignments, helping them submit completed work, etc). But the kids go to my wife for help 95% of the time, which has been hard for her because she has a job as well. Most of the time the daily assignments don't start rolling in until 9:30-10:00am and at that point we are both well into our workdays.



As for the kids themselves, the older one (11) has been mostly fine. He needs help with completing his work sometimes but he's eager to get it all done so there aren't a lot of battles to try to get him going. The bigger issue with him is usually ensuring that he isn't taking shortcuts or doing the bare minimum on everything.



The little one (9), on the other hand, has been a mess. He's a smart enough kid, but he thrives under strict, structured, regimented environments, which is basically the antithesis of what he's dealing with now. He procrastinates at an all-star level and is often still completing school work after dinner. Anything that isn't due immediately is a candidate to put off, which means that Thursdays and Fridays are overloaded. He fights us at every turn, and when we try to hand-hold him through things he disengages or goofs around. I find I need to read his assignments to him several times because he is zoning out before I can get a sentence into the instructions. Carrot or stick methods work well with him, something like "no Fortnite until your work is totally done". But that also means that we need to be prepared to block off a full hour or two to help him, because he's not going to just sit patiently waiting for our help if it's preventing him from doing something else.


My wife mentioned last night that her teacher friends are starting to hear rumblings that the kids may not go back to school in the fall. If that's the case, I think we will need to sit down over the summer and really brainstorm an effective way to go forward as a family. Whether that means re-arranging our work schedules in some way, trying to get outside help of some sort, or whatever, I don't know. But I don't think it will be healthy for any of us to try to go beyond this school year in the same way we currently are.

[Lathum]

I am hearing a lot of rumblings that we either won't go back in the fall, or it will be under very limited circumstances.

[JPhillips]

Really good reopening data and requirements for NY.

https://forward.ny.gov/regional-moni...D0XJXfjdHAYIv0

[JPhillips]

dola

The inflammatory syndrome affecting kids with Covid antibodies is scary.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

dola

The inflammatory syndrome affecting kids with Covid antibodies is scary.

Yeah.

To the extent this actually can make kids really sick, I REALLY wish we had that information at the beginning.

It has gotten into people's heads that this only affects "the old and immuno-compromised." And, in particular, that kids are mostly OK.

If it turns out that that is wrong, it is going to be very hard to shift people's perceptions.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

We all want to reopen. We all want to keep illness and death to a minimum.

And the biggest roadblock to reopening at this point seems to be people who are taking it as a point of political pride to not take basic precautions to keep others safe.

I am not sure why the Chamber of Commerce style Republicans aren't going after the MAGA "Jesus didn't wear no mask, and I ain't either" types who are making things so much harder on everyone and trying to shame them into oblivion.

A vocal and stubborn minority is making things a lot harder for the vast majority of us who all want the same things.

(That last sentence could probably double as a tl;dr for all of human history).

I agree, except I think it's a lot more than just a vocal minority

[Thomkal]

Ventured out into the wilderness again today to get a Walmart pickup and a dearly missed Starbucks. Got almost all our order with a couple of exceptions and Walmart has decided to not put there produce in for curbside delivery.

1. Paper products still hard to come by here. The one bit of good news here is that they were out of the 2 pk of store brand paper towels but substituted in a 6 pk of the same brand instead. Hope they are good quality towels now...

2. Meat, especially ground beef, still hard to come by. Since we needed to go in and get produce anyway, we decided to see what was available in store. Was able to get some with the most fat, but at least we have some now. Got a couple roasts and pork chops too.

3. Decided to see if we could get so lucky with the paper products rows. Yes and No. It was still almost entirely empty except for a few of those 6pk paper towels, and a couple 3 pk of Kleenex which were not available when I ordered, so got one of those.

More people wearing masks than not, but saw whole families shopping with very little kids and no masks on anyone. All employees seemed to have masks and/or face guards. We finally ordered a box of masks for ourselves this week and this was the first time wearing one of them. No more handmade bandana masks for us.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I am hearing a lot of rumblings that we either won't go back in the fall, or it will be under very limited circumstances.

I think it depends on the area. You never know regarding a second wave, but I'd be surprised if schools didn't re-open as normal here in Arizona. Heck, they are talking about opening Casinos and bars again next week (which may be our own effort to cause a second wave ).

I think June and July will be very interesting as places start opening up. Undoubtedly, some areas will be reckless and could cause a relapse - while others may not see any new issues. I could see a kind of "Frankenstein" set of policies in effect by August where certain areas are moving along OK while others are where they were in March. This is really uncharted territory moving forward.

[IlliniCub]

I honestly don't feel like we're going to get the first wave down enough to even have a second wave. I almost feel like it's just going to be continuous at this point.

[IlliniCub]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Ventured out into the wilderness again today to get a Walmart pickup and a dearly missed Starbucks. Got almost all our order with a couple of exceptions and Walmart has decided to not put there produce in for curbside delivery.

1. Paper products still hard to come by here. The one bit of good news here is that they were out of the 2 pk of store brand paper towels but substituted in a 6 pk of the same brand instead. Hope they are good quality towels now...

2. Meat, especially ground beef, still hard to come by. Since we needed to go in and get produce anyway, we decided to see what was available in store. Was able to get some with the most fat, but at least we have some now. Got a couple roasts and pork chops too.

3. Decided to see if we could get so lucky with the paper products rows. Yes and No. It was still almost entirely empty except for a few of those 6pk paper towels, and a couple 3 pk of Kleenex which were not available when I ordered, so got one of those.

More people wearing masks than not, but saw whole families shopping with very little kids and no masks on anyone. All employees seemed to have masks and/or face guards. We finally ordered a box of masks for ourselves this week and this was the first time wearing one of them. No more handmade bandana masks for us.

If you can you might try looking into local sources for meat. I literally had a farmer give me a hog and I only had to pay processing. Also got a load of fresh beef and steaks. Of course your mileage may vary depending on where you live and who you know.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by IlliniCub

If you can you might try looking into local sources for meat. I literally had a farmer give me a hog and I only had to pay processing. Also got a load of fresh beef and steaks. Of course your mileage may vary depending on where you live and who you know.

Yep I agree something to keep in mind.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Yeah.

To the extent this actually can make kids really sick, I REALLY wish we had that information at the beginning.

It has gotten into people's heads that this only affects "the old and immuno-compromised." And, in particular, that kids are mostly OK.

If it turns out that that is wrong, it is going to be very hard to shift people's perceptions.

It also sounds likely don't know either. I feel like somehow we discount all of the possible "positives" with scientific hypotheses (lower death rate, more people infected...) but the local media has been running wild with something that may or may not be true about a small number of kids in New York. Really hate to feel this way because I am largely on the keep things locked down and follow social distancing/masks etc but this one seems like fear mongering 101.

[IlliniCub]

Even if kids aren't getting sick, as an educator I can vouch they make good little asymptomatic carriers.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by panerd

It also sounds likely don't know either. I feel like somehow we discount all of the possible "positives" with scientific hypotheses (lower death rate, more people infected...) but the local media has been running wild with something that may or may not be true about a small number of kids in New York. Really hate to feel this way because I am largely on the keep things locked down and follow social distancing/masks etc but this one seems like fear mongering 101.

This is still certainly a "to the extent that" post b/c we really don't know.

But it took one of the best things we "knew" about the virus--that kids seem particularly safe from it--and called it into question.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Arles

I think it depends on the area. You never know regarding a second wave, but I'd be surprised if schools didn't re-open as normal here in Arizona. Heck, they are talking about opening Casinos and bars again next week (which may be our own effort to cause a second wave ).

I think June and July will be very interesting as places start opening up. Undoubtedly, some areas will be reckless and could cause a relapse - while others may not see any new issues. I could see a kind of "Frankenstein" set of policies in effect by August where certain areas are moving along OK while others are where they were in March. This is really uncharted territory moving forward.

All it takes is one positive case for a teacher or student and all hell will break loose.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by IlliniCub

I honestly don't feel like we're going to get the first wave down enough to even have a second wave. I almost feel like it's just going to be continuous at this point.

It looks like the rate of infection is decreasing - esp out west. If you compare to April 24, Arizona is down 2% (8.7-> 6.6%), California is down (8.6% -> 5.1%) and so are places like Oregon, Utah and Las Vegas. Hospitals are also at a lower occupancy rate than they were in April. There is reason to think the first wave is significantly reducing in certain areas.

Originally Posted by Lathum

All it takes is one positive case for a teacher or student and all hell will break loose.

I would say it's more likely for a teacher (as they would show more symptoms) -and they would just have to be quarantined for 14 days if it happens. But what's the alternative? Just keep home schooling kids all fall when the rest of the world is open? How is that even possible? At the end of the day, kids will either be in school or in some form of day care. Both have the same risks and school seems to be a better option for them to learn. Parents will still be going to work either way. It was different when everyone was working from home in March/April, I can't see that being the norm in September. If businesses are open, so will schools.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

This is still certainly a "to the extent that" post b/c we really don't know.

But it took one of the best things we "knew" about the virus--that kids seem particularly safe from it--and called it into question.

Right, even Fauci today was urging caution on saying it doesn't affect kids.

[JPhillips]

Schools are extremely difficult because even if you can figure out how to distance and test/trace you're still going to have mountainous liability concerns that any lawyer would tell you to avoid. When that first kid tests positive, how many lawsuits come in?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by panerd

It also sounds likely don't know either. I feel like somehow we discount all of the possible "positives" with scientific hypotheses (lower death rate, more people infected...) but the local media has been running wild with something that may or may not be true about a small number of kids in New York. Really hate to feel this way because I am largely on the keep things locked down and follow social distancing/masks etc but this one seems like fear mongering 101.

It's been found in many states other than NY, although NY has the most cases.

Here, they've been very responsible IMO. We've been told to watch for symptoms in children and also told that they don't know what's going on yet, but that it appears to be a post-infection syndrome.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Schools are extremely difficult because even if you can figure out how to distance and test/trace you're still going to have mountainous liability concerns that any lawyer would tell you to avoid. When that first kid tests positive, how many lawsuits come in?

Yeah, I'm sure all teachers will have masks, assemblies/large gatherings will be discouraged, large cleaning efforts in classrooms and computer rooms, spacing during lunch, etc. My wife is the president of our local elementary school's PTA and they are already planning for helping support these new expenses. It certainly won't be the same as fall of 2019, but I feel pretty confident that schools will be open (unless there is a massive second wave that forces everyone to work from home again).

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

We all want to reopen. We all want to keep illness and death to a minimum.

One of these two things is true.

Nobody's sitting around going "boy I sure am glad the economy is a shambles let's see how rough we can REALLY make it." We all want life to return to normal, for values of normal.

But keeping illness and death to a minimum? Half the population or so is on board with that. The other half the population is locked in a death cult, with the idea that gramps and granny should be willing to die if it means we can have our old economy back. That the only person who matters is ME, so if *I* don't want to wear a mask, I don't have to. Who cares if I'm an asymptomatic carrier and I manage to infect a couple dozen people, as long as my "freedoms" aren't being "trampled"?

As long as I don't have to wear a mask and I can go pack out a restaurant or a bar, does it really matter if my actions result in anybody's death?

The bit I quoted is what SHOULD be universally true, but it isn't. Way too many people have their backs up about the government saying "hey, maybe you oughta cover your face and follow social distancing practices" and are actively doing the exact opposite.

Local grocery store has all kinds of stuff set up to manage customer flow, and about half the people in the store yesterday were straight up ignoring it. Aisles were set up with visible signs and arrows on the floor showing the alternating one-way pathing, and I lost count of how many people, not wearing face coverings, just went wherever the fuck they felt like yesterday, and straight up ignored the store's request for six feet between patrons and one adult/cart per household per trip.

"we want to keep death and illness to a minimum" is little more than lip service for a large chunk of the population, and a large chunk of THAT chunk actively doesn't give a fuck.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

One of these two things is true.

Nobody's sitting around going "boy I sure am glad the economy is a shambles let's see how rough we can REALLY make it." We all want life to return to normal, for values of normal.

But keeping illness and death to a minimum? Half the population or so is on board with that. The other half the population is locked in a death cult, with the idea that gramps and granny should be willing to die if it means we can have our old economy back. That the only person who matters is ME, so if *I* don't want to wear a mask, I don't have to. Who cares if I'm an asymptomatic carrier and I manage to infect a couple dozen people, as long as my "freedoms" aren't being "trampled"?

As long as I don't have to wear a mask and I can go pack out a restaurant or a bar, does it really matter if my actions result in anybody's death?

The bit I quoted is what SHOULD be universally true, but it isn't. Way too many people have their backs up about the government saying "hey, maybe you oughta cover your face and follow social distancing practices" and are actively doing the exact opposite.

Local grocery store has all kinds of stuff set up to manage customer flow, and about half the people in the store yesterday were straight up ignoring it. Aisles were set up with visible signs and arrows on the floor showing the alternating one-way pathing, and I lost count of how many people, not wearing face coverings, just went wherever the fuck they felt like yesterday, and straight up ignored the store's request for six feet between patrons and one adult/cart per household per trip.

"we want to keep death and illness to a minimum" is little more than lip service for a large chunk of the population, and a large chunk of THAT chunk actively doesn't give a fuck.

Yep!

[Arles]

Yeah, I don't get it either. I'm on board with trying to slowly re-open in many areas because the hospital/cases numbers are pretty low. But, the only way this works is if people still wear masks and social distance where possible. My fear from the start with this was that the moment people got any amount of freedom, a certain percentage would be so "fed up" that they just went back to normal like nothing happened. Unfortunately, there's nothing we can really do outside of call those people out where possible. I'm glad costco is requiring masks and I hope more stores do that - if only to remind people that increasing their freedom also increases their responsibility to protect their neighbors. Finally, this is why I was really hoping we would do this first over the summer. I knew a bunch of people would be in the "it's time for 'Merica to come back!" camp and my preference is for that to happen in 90+ degree heat and not a much cooler late fall time-frame.

[miked]

I just went to pick strawberries with the kids about 30-45 mins outside Atlanta. While people were pretty distant in the fields, it's like as soon as there is a line (like to pay for ice cream) people just forget everything. About half the people there were wearing masks, and some dude and his unmasked family were riding our asses in the checkout line for ice cream. Like dude, it's not that crowded, back up a bit. He sort of rolled his eyes but then I pointed to the giant plexiglass separating the clerk from everyone else. It's like there just isn't enough stupid in the world yet.

[Lathum]

I don't know about you guys, but I wouldn't have given 2 shits about a graduation ceremony when I was a senior.

[Arles]

Man, I still can't get over how everything has shifted in AZ. Two weeks ago, the idea was to phase in salon and restaurants, evaluate and then slowly open more. Now, it was salons last Friday, restaurants on Monday, Pools and gyms tomorrow and casinos/bars on this Friday (5/15). Holy smokes, what happened to "phased approach". Can't we atleast wait two weeks after restaurants open before unleashing havok, removing the stay-at-home and opening bars/casinos? I know Ducey has been under some pressure and didn't want to have to prosecute business owners, but I don't see any reasonable explanation for this massive change.

[Mota]

Originally Posted by Arles

I think it depends on the area. You never know regarding a second wave, but I'd be surprised if schools didn't re-open as normal here in Arizona. Heck, they are talking about opening Casinos and bars again next week (which may be our own effort to cause a second wave ).

Yes, casinos are probably the worst thing in the world to open. Let's bring in people from all around the country, have them breathe the same air conditioned air and touch the same objects, maybe have some buffets, and send them back to their homes across the country freshly infected. Great idea.

[tarcone]

Not sure if this was posted ot not, but California state universities have suspended in person classes next Fall.

[rjolley]

Speaking of buffets....https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2020/05/11/watch-viral-japanese-video-shows-how-quickly-covid-19-can-spread-at-a-buffet

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Arles

Man, I still can't get over how everything has shifted in AZ. Two weeks ago, the idea was to phase in salon and restaurants, evaluate and then slowly open more. Now, it was salons last Friday, restaurants on Monday, Pools and gyms tomorrow and casinos/bars on this Friday (5/15). Holy smokes, what happened to "phased approach". Can't we atleast wait two weeks after restaurants open before unleashing havok, removing the stay-at-home and opening bars/casinos? I know Ducey has been under some pressure and didn't want to have to prosecute business owners, but I don't see any reasonable explanation for this massive change.

Trump was here last week. Casinos are going to bite him in the ass.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Not sure if this was posted ot not, but California state universities have suspended in person classes next Fall.

It's just Cal State not all of the universities in the state. Seems a bit early, not that maybe they wont eventually have to do it but basically we have more time left before school starts than the entirety of the COVID epidemic in this country. Why couldnt they wait like a month?

[Butter]

I wonder how much that will hurt them financially. If I were a student, I would just be taking 1st year classes at a community college if I could just transfer them for Year 2 and save several thousand dollars. Plus, all the people losing their jobs that won't be able to pay for regular college at this point.

[miami_fan]

Positive news?

70 Percent of American Households Say Their Income Is Unaffected or Higher Despite Coronavirus Crisis: Survey

A large majority of Americans have seen either no change to their household income or an improvement to it since the beginning of the coronavirus crisis, according to a new survey commissioned by Bankrate.com.

[henry296]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Positive news?

70 Percent of American Households Say Their Income Is Unaffected or Higher Despite Coronavirus Crisis: Survey

That make sense to me. If about 15% are unemployed and another 15% had a pay change / loss of Small Business income the remaining 70% have income stay the same.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by henry296

That make sense to me. If about 15% are unemployed and another 15% had a pay change / loss of Small Business income the remaining 70% have income stay the same.

Right... for now. I run (basically) a nonprofit, and for now my staff is secure, working from home at full pay. I'm prepared for a year in the red, to tighten the belt in multiple ways, dig into reserves, and get through it. It's the "rainy day" we have squirreled away reserves for, and we've put ourselves into a position to handle this.

If this situation goes on for months and months and months... I can't handle it. I'll run out of cash, and my money-making ability will suffer. At some point, I don't know when, my pledges to my staff get put back into play.

So yeah...lots of people haven't felt it directly. Yet. (And I'm in a sector of the economy probably least susceptible to short term ebbs and flows... if you run a flower shop or whatnot, you're closer to that "when" than I am, for certain)

[JPhillips]

But things are a lot worse for those at the bottom of the pay scale. From Fed. Chair Powell:

"Almost 40% of those in households making less than $40,000 a year lost a job in March."

[molson]

The service industry jobs went away immediately because the need for those jobs immediately disappeared. The impact on white collar and public service jobs will be more dragged out. Companies can get through a crazy few months without firing everyone, but they're all going to have to change the way they do business as this trickles through the entire economy, and that will include smaller staffing needs. I don't think a country can lose more than half of it's economic activity but just truck along at the same employment levels in these office jobs, paying everyone in full to stay at home and maybe work a little while there, indefinitely. And public entities operate on an annual budget, this will hit them harder next year.

I saw that Idaho tax revenue was down 60% from pre-pandemic projections in the first full month impacted by the virus. That was better than they expected. They operate on a June-June financial year and had over-performed every other month, so that mitigates the loss to next year's budgets somewhat. Plus Idaho luckily started collecting state tax revenue from online merchant transactions just a few years ago, and obviously Amazon orders are way up, so that helps too.

But the services government is able to provide is going to drastically change. I expect to get at least partially furloughed next year. We perform an essential function, but we can do it a lot more slowly. During the great recession we were furloughed every other Friday for a while, this time, I could see every Friday or more, not replacing anyone who leaves, and maybe some longer-term furloughs and layoffs in some agencies.