2015 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown

[QuikSand]

The season's prep races are pretty much behind us... and it looks like it might be as strong/compelling a field as we have seen in years.

I don't have strong feelings yet, but we're going to have several contenders who come out of their various paths looking far the best from their region. AMERICAN PHAROAH just crushed the Arkansas Derby field as a monster 1-9 favorite, with a performance that might have made him a heavy favorite in Kentucky. But DORTMUND comes from the So Cal circuit off his own great looking run in the Santa Anita Derby, also seeming much the best from that region. CARPE DIEM won at the Bluegrass Stakes in Keeneland at somewhere around even money, also a strong betting choice from that major prep after he previously won in Tampa Bay. A few from the Wood Memorial looks legit, with FROSTED the winner whose body of work includes one dud but several really nice races. And as always, we'll have multiple intriguing players who either make a case based on apparent improvement, bloodlines, trainer, or who knows what else.

It sets up very nicely for a good debate and conversation.

[QuikSand]

[QuikSand]

[QuikSand]

[QuikSand]

[QuikSand]

[QuikSand]

[QuikSand]

Hmm... maybe this is what it takes to get any chatter going.

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promo...ckyDerby15.pdf

[QuikSand]

Interesting that the BRIS speed figures (linked above) favor DORTMUND and FROSTED over AMERICAN PHARAOH, which is basically my own leaning as well (prior to seeing the BRIS figs for the last round of races). I think the DRF numbers are virtually the same for all three races.

That might not bode so well for getting juicy odds on FROSTED, though.

[Lathum]

Going to Keeneland tomorrow, really looking forward to it.

[weegeebored]

I used to be a serious recreational player but have lost interest in horse racing over the last couple of years. I think that I played the Derby and Breeder's Cup last year and that was it. Thanks for posting the prep races QS. I am going to take some time and review them this coming weekend and maybe I will be able to contribute to the discussion. The KD is the only time that I play trifectas, and I'm usually looking for a nice score. I have hit it a couple of times over the last 12 or so years so I will post my plays closer to Derby day.

[QuikSand]

I am always looking for a value play, and I think mine this year is going to be UPSTART. Really not a big number play, but I think the DRF guess of 12-1 had a better chance of holding up than their 15-1 on FROSTED (who at that price is a massive overlay).

LCJ Report from a recent workout here:
Kentucky Derby 2015 | Upstart recovers, gets in workout

I'm not hung up on the loss to MATERIALITY - who got to cruise to awfully comfy fractions (over 48 seconds for the first half mile, pretty pedestrian) in Florida on a lead-favoring surface and held him off.

We'll probably get him onto the CD track next week, and if he's looking fit (and I mean a bullet blowout, which we know he's capable of doing and Violette will ask for it) then he will figure prominently for me.

If he's up the track in the Derby, then start printing my Belmont win tickets right away. He's got all the markings of a June winner, to me... fits right into the recent semi-trend of seeing well-bred Derby failures put it together 5 weeks later.

[TCY Junkie]

I bet materiality in Florida derby but will have upstart in KD. Also like firing line, think he will have value. And the way frosted was moving before he decided to basically stop caught my attention. Had him I'm the wood. I'll have those 3 in the KD. If keen ice for romans gets in might play place and show on him. But main bets will be with the 3 above.

The oaks looks very lively this year. Will be on birdatthewire. Very good fillies this year.

[QuikSand]

MATERIALITY ran a nice 48-flat work today over the CD track. That's right in line with what he was able to manage prepping for some impressive front-running efforts down at Gulfstream (where it looks like he trained on a private site). Getting over the CD surface is pretty important for a horse with that style, so this is a good sign for him. Often, newcomers to CD simply don't like it -- and an inability to generate a comparable workout to previous settings is a tipoff.

Not sure where I rank him in either my pace scenario, nor overall. He's been pretty forwardly placed in his 3 races (all wins) but none of them really showed blistering speed. But if I'm in command, I don't see how he has the class to emerge from a pack if he starts out in 7th place - which I reckon he would if he run his first half in 47 and change, which seems like his normal pace.

I'm looking for short-odds horses to toss out, and so far he is a candidate. I'm trying to firm up my view that CARPE DIEM can be completely ignored as well. That would certainly help in making exotic tickets more reasonable.

My preliminary thinking is along these lines:

Top Tier
DORTMUND
FROSTED
AMERICAN PHARAOH
UPSTART

Second Tier
EL KABEIR
INTERNATIONAL STAR
CARPE DIEM?

Value Plays
FIRING LINE
TENCENDUR
MUBTAAHIJ (completely depends on early money)

[weegeebored]

Watching the preps didn't help too much, although I thought that Frosted looked short in the Fountain of Youth but had a bad trip in the Wood -- wide on both turns and won anyway despite the mediocre pace. A contender for me. American Pharaoh had a jewel trip and won for fun; hard to judge that race. Upstart ran a nice race and was taken down -- I've seen worse and horses not DQ'd so I'll count that as a win. It's a big concern for me that Upstart bore out several paths however. Possibly an underneath play for me. The UAE Derby -- hard to get anything out of that as well. Mubtaahij saved ground the whole way. Destroyed the field, though, so I'm considering. Carpe Diem looked solid; pressing Ocho x 3 and drawing away. Ocho did well to hold on to 3rd, but there wasn't much behind him. Dortmund didn't have much pressure and isn't going to wire the field in the Derby.

Workouts @CD and pedigree (distance) really help me separate contenders into different tiers, so I will wait until I read the reports and look at some dosage numbers.

[QuikSand]

PHARAOH just blew the doors off the place with his Sunday morning workout in 58 and 2/5. Damn.

[Marmel]

On another message board I frequest, a member ('s husband) partially owns War Horse, so I'll go with him.

[QuikSand]

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-workouts

Nice showings here from EL KABEIR, who remains in my thinking as well... but they're working him at Belmont, so he won't have any recent test over the CD surface. He did win a Grade 2 race over the track last year, though, so I don't think we hold that against him much - he'll handle the surface fine, presumably.

Word is that TENCENDUR was visually impressive and unaltered by a pretty decent 5-panel work as well, that's a good sign for him to go 5 furlongs in a very respectable time and not be all out to do so. He's going to figure in my betting.

[QuikSand]

Oaks PP data here: http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1485055

The Oaks/Derby is an interesting play, as sometimes the payouts get dictated by the morning line a bit more than one would expect. If, like me, you're intrigued by a few of these mid-range shots like FROSTED and UPSTART, and you'd like to lock in decent odds before seeing them actually click in at 7-1 on Saturday afternoon... a reasonable play on an Oaks/Derby exacta could be a solid bet.

[QuikSand]

Not everyone likes Jennie Rees (I do) but I definitely go for this sort of article.

Kentucky Derby 2015 | Why your horse can win -- and why it won't

[QuikSand]

Top Tier
FROSTED
AMERICAN PHARAOH
UPSTART

Second Tier
DORTMUND
TENCENDUR
INTERNATIONAL STAR
CARPE DIEM


Value Plays
FIRING LINE
EL KABEIR
MUBTAAHIJ (completely depends on early money)

[cartman]

American Pharoah looks so natural running. I think if he can handle the traffic of a 20 horse race, he has a really good chance at winning.

[QuikSand]

Online PPs: http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promo...ckyDerby15.pdf

Includes post position and morning line odds. Nothing jarring there.

[QuikSand]

So, just as I felt my thinking was starting to crystallize, I heard Andrew Beyer in a radio bit yesterday. He does not have a great track record with big races, but he sounds awfully compelling as he talks racing - and I tend to swoon just a bit.

So, in talking about the big two, he singled out AMERICAN PHAROAH as untested and potentially fragile despite being brilliant... and preferred DORTMUND as having proven himself more. Just as I was downgrading DORTMUND from my top spot (mostly due to his pedestrian finishing 3f in the SA Derby) and starting to believe in AP due to his great workouts.

He also pretty much dismissed MATERIALITY as too unseasoned, but in doing so talked up his pick, UPSTART. I had been planting him as my value play for the year, but has started to cool off a bit of late. Now after hearing Beyer's argument, I'm giving him another close look.

Waffling.

[QuikSand]

Given that draw, it really does look like MATERIALITY has every chance to get out front. He likely has the most natural speed in the field, and from post #3 nobody has a great angle to run with him. DORTMUND could give chase just to stay out of the fray, and I guess BOLO and FIRING LINE are players for the front there.

MATERIALITY got the lead in his last race at Gulfstream, but he really lugged home (nearly 40 seconds for the last 3 furlongs, that's awful). They say the surface was very slow and heavy that day (unusual for Gulfstream) so that's a caveat... but I don't see how he carries out that speed even further with more real talent behind him here.

I'm looking more closely at BOLO now.

[weegeebored]

Materiality has the biggest "no win" flag for me -- Apollo in 1882 is the only Derby winner unraced as a 2yo. And there will be others that will want to lead. I don't see a horse in here that can steal the race on the front end, especially at 10 furlongs. War Emblem did it but I can't remember another horse who did. That's not to say an upfront horse won't win, but I'm thinking an early presser or presser type with tactical speed. AP fits the bill but can't take a short-ish price with this many contenders.

[Coffee Warlord]

I think I've pared down to 4 candidates.

Materiality, American Pharoah, Frosted, and El Kabier.

Between the two big boys (AP and Dort), I'm just not feeling Dortmund.

[QuikSand]

I just wrapped a meeting with my "syndicate" friends - we have about $1600 to throw at this thing.

We decided that both MATERIALITY and FIRING LINE were worth a theory play as potential "steal it on the lead" entries. I don't love either, but working with that much money, I don't mind playing a wide range of theories.

My colleagues there were higher on STANFORD than I am (which is not at all), and liked the two aforementioned speedsters better than I did as well. one friend, who tends to like the same horses as I do, is struggling between DORTMUND and FROSTED as his top pick. Both figured heavily in our many bets.

[murrayyyyy]

Looking at a tri-box of 18-2-10 probably.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

We decided that both MATERIALITY and FIRING LINE were worth a theory play as potential "steal it on the lead" entries. I don't love either, but working with that much money, I don't mind playing a wide range of theories.

I got off Materiality because Velazquez rode both this year and he's on Carpe Diem for the Derby. Figure the last thing I want is the jockey Materiality has had for his career on another horse inside of him.

[Coffee Warlord]

That's been giving me pause as well. You gotta figure Velazquez had his pick of the two horses, and he chose Carpe Diem over Materiality.

[QuikSand]

Not sure why that would come as a surprise. CD is a far more accomplished horse, and the betting public is likely to agree, just like the line makers did.

[QuikSand]

Just the first small wave of betting in, but a few early trends. Some of these tend to hold up.

2015 Kentucky Derby 141 Live Odds | 2015 Kentucky Derby & Oaks | May 1 and 2, 2015 | Tickets, Events, News

My quick thoughts:

8 DORTMUND up to 5-1 from ML of 3, interesting
18 AMERICAN PHAROAH steady at 5-2
15 FROSTED down to 9-1 from 15, rats
19 UPSTART at 36-1 WTF
7 EL KABEIR down to 20 from 30
3 MATERIALITY up from 12 to 19

[QuikSand]

I'm trying to get my syndicate friends to move our orphaned STANFORD money onto UPSTART. If he goes off at that price I will have a sizable win bet there, that's monstrous value. Not convinced he's the best in this field, but he's not in the bottom third by any stretch. He's a 10-1 horse in this field, I'd say.

[QuikSand]

El Kabeir May Be Scratched From Kentucky Derby

That absurd also-eligible from Dallas Stewart might get a go after all. That horse ought to go off at 450-1.

[Coffee Warlord]

Damn, I had high hopes for El Kabeir, too.

[QuikSand]

I'm not going to post every bet here, but taking a stab at the Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pick 3: 5, 12, 13/7, 9, 12/8, 15, 18, 19

(with morning line odds)

Condo Commando 4/1 -
Stellar Wind 7/2 -
Birdatthewire 6/1 -
===
JACK MILTON 5/1 -
SEEK AGAIN 4/1 -
GRAND ARCH 8/1 -
===
Dortmund 3/1 -
Frosted 15/1 -
American Pharoah 5/2 -
Upstart 15/1 -

I'd like the payout on that 13-12-19 combo, baby!

[QuikSand]

Most entries are staying put through the day,but UPSTART is settling... at 36 when I posted earlier, then 34, now 33. Doubt he drops all the way back to 15, but 25 is still tasty.

[QuikSand]

ELKABEIR scratched

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

ELKABEIR scratched

Double gates mean everyone from 6 down comes in correct? Makes me feel better about the 2 now.

[QuikSand]

I'm increasingly convinced that Gary Stevens will gun for the lead with FIRING LINE, and that he might even get in front of MATERIALITY. I expect OCHO to get up there too, maybe they'll start three across. I give FIRING LINE the best shot of "stealing" this on the front end, though I don't really buy that any of them are good enough to do it while challenged at all.

Sounds like OCHO will break from the 2 slot in the gate, and the 22 AE doesn't draw in.

[QuikSand]

I was unable (so far) to get my syndicate interested in 4 TENCENDUR, so I'll be putting something together including him on my own. He's the only deep long shot I'm playing today, I'm pretty sure. I'll have UPSTART broadly, of course, but at better than 50 I also think TENCENDUR is an overlay and has a shot to hit the board.

[Coffee Warlord]

So my lone tri for the race will go:

Materiality, Frosted, American Pharoah.

[weegeebored]

AP is currently 8-5. That is insane. I will definitely have tickets with him out of the money. The payoffs will be huge.

[QuikSand]

INERNATIONAL STAR has also scratched. Darn, he was a throw out for me.

[QuikSand]

Latest odds on the favorites: AP 3-1, DORT 4-1

[QuikSand]

UPSTART down to 21
FROSTED at 9
FIRING LINE at 8

This should settle down a bit from here, lots of race day money came in early.

[weegeebored]

I can't recall a KD with this many scratches. Increases the chances of AP for what it's worth. I think he will be the favorite @2-1 come post time; Dortmund probably 3-1.

[QuikSand]

I'd agree that a late wave on chalk seems likely, I'd agree AP gets bet down to 2, not sure on DORTMUND, he might hold at 4.

Would be interesting if they ran 1-2...loser ships right to Belmont perhaps, but only to run if there's a Preakness upset?

[weegeebored]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Would be interesting if they ran 1-2...

Would kill every one of my tickets.