WW XCIV Group Therapy - Game Over!

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Lathum

this post elevates DT in my mind. He was the first one to float out the reasons why EF may be a wolf

I hate to toot my own horn, but he's actually reiterating a point I had made several times before that.

But I agree. Still, I'd rather hold off on more analysis until day breaks.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

This post bothers me. Not sure why.

Anyhow, I have a feeling that I'm on the very short list for night kill targets tonight. So the only reason I'll give my strategy during a night phase is due to that.

The main reason I pushed an EF lynch today was because of Telle's behavior in regards to EF and in regards to PB. I don't really have the energy right now to go back over all of my points today on why this was the only conclusion that made sense to me when all things were considered (plus I am late to run my BBCF sim as well).

I think there were several people who were overly vocal about not voting PB today who were likely just very overly wrong about their reasoning. So I'm not necessarily thinking everyone who voted for PB is bad here.

If I am alive tomorrow, barring seer reveal somewhere else, Telle is likely my target. After that it gets a little fuzzier for me.. I can buy what people are saying about Hoopsguy, and I think he should be considered a valuable target to scan soon perhaps, but I'm not sold on him being bad just yet because I always feel that way about him it seems.

Thanks for reminding me about DT. His no vote on Day One and quick vote early today still makes me suspicious. But then he did switch his vote to EF early on, and didn't switch out.

If PB is indeed a villager, then he comes off better there. If PB is a wolf, I think DT will be the most deserving target for a vote.

I am interested to know who the seer scanned last night, and I hope they'll scan PB tonight. Not sure when they should come out, but at least when they do, we will have some more critical information with which to judge our votes.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

If I have to go through this a third day in a row, I'm not going to bother fighting it.

You spent all day today saying you weren't going to bother fighting it too, right?

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

The only thing that'd make me think you are a wolf at this point is the fact that the wolves criticized one of their own since I know you like that plan. So Im looking elsewhere first.

I can't deny that.

Okay, since it looks like not even this has me at all cleared, I beg that everyone in the game focus all your energies and powers on me tonight, good, bad, independent win conditions, sexy (especially sexy), whatever, scan me, probe me, search me, sniff me, strip me, hug me, love me, spoon me, whatever but damn, I promise that I am good.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Lathum

He voted first on him yesterday, but IMO that doesn't really clear him.

Still, I can't deny it was a little uncanny of hoops to call him out like that. Luck or not, hoops inadvertently led us to our first wolf.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I hate to toot my own horn, but he's actually reiterating a point I had made several times before that.

But I agree. Still, I'd rather hold off on more analysis until day breaks.

Good point.

[The Jackal]

You aren't cleared PB but you're in much better shape especially if Lathum backs off and we figure out what the hell he's up to.

[Poli]

Off for some WoW.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Poli

Off for some WoW.

Server?

[Lathum]

PB, you have to admit your late vote on NTN day 1 looks pretty bad considering EF came up wolf

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Lathum

PB, you have to admit your late vote on NTN day 1 looks pretty bad considering EF came up wolf

that's a fair point

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Lathum

PB, you have to admit your late vote on NTN day 1 looks pretty bad considering EF came up wolf

Oh yeah, no doubt. I tried too hard not to use the usual grudges (hoops, EF) for votes and unfortunately that is my only defense. That and, as you guys have heard, I keyed in on an either existent or non-existent ntn-Telle dynamic.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Poli

Still, I can't deny it was a little uncanny of hoops to call him out like that. Luck or not, hoops inadvertently led us to our first wolf.

Sorry but I just don't see what you mean.

Hoops voted early on EF day 1 and was stuck there and then today he voted early on PB and stayed there.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I can't deny that.

Okay, since it looks like not even this has me at all cleared, I beg that everyone in the game focus all your energies and powers on me tonight, good, bad, independent win conditions, sexy (especially sexy), whatever, scan me, probe me, search me, sniff me, strip me, hug me, love me, spoon me, whatever but damn, I promise that I am good.

Where's that 350 pound masseuse?

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Where's that 350 pound masseuse?

She's got quite the appetite, she's all yours PB.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I have the opposite view of this. Actually completely opposite. DT's posts are bothering me. He was more than happy to be the first person to jump on PB after you did last night and he only started talking about EF after myself and Autumn did. His vote was still on PB during that time. Then after the lynch today, DT made the post which I quoted earlier where he appeared to me to be taking credit for something that felt to me he was trying to slide into.

I'm not more convinced that DT is bad than Telle, she is still my target tomorrow, but I definitely am not extending my trust of today's EF's vote much further than Autumn right now until I have more time to review.

you should keep in mind that you're always suspicious of me though

i could reveal as the seer and you would still probably claim that i was bad

I left my vote on PB while discussing EF? Yeah, cuz we were like...at least 6 hours away from deadline (i forget what time it was exactly). Moving my vote willy nilly at that point does nothing, particularly because idk if we know what the tiebreaker might be.

For all we know, lathum's ability may have been triggered by getting enough of us to follow him on a vote, so maybe there was nothing wrong with my vote? Not like it got a roled villager lynched or anything. As a matter of fact, my eventual vote (quite early) helped us lynch a wolf.

And I would argue that Autumn and I and you to some extent, started discussing EF as a potential wolf at about the same time. I'm not about to go back and look at timestamps to verify that, but that is the way that it "felt" to me.

[Lathum]

So if I had to guess right now who are wolves I would say PB, Hoops and Poli. The way Poli is saying hoops is cleared is confusing me.

I'm only saying this in case I befall some horrible fate.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Poli

Hoops moves up as well. Wasn't he the first one pinging EF yesterday?

Originally Posted by Lathum

He voted first on him yesterday, but IMO that doesn't really clear him.

I also very publicly declared that EF should be scanned yesterday (during the night action period when very few people were posting) and that I wanted an NTN/EF run-off yesterday.

But I was on the wrong horse today, so I understand that I'm going to draw some suspicion. I'm fine with that; will be happy to talk further about my play tomorrow assuming I'm around.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

i could reveal as the seer and you would still probably claim that i was bad

When has that ever happened!

[hoopsguy]

By the way, I hope that the bodyguard has paid attention to the thread today. I think that his potential targets to guard should be a pretty small list.

[hoopsguy]

As Chief has noted, we should have some really good vote analysis. I'm going to start on that in the next couple of minutes. My thought is that it is good to publish this now so that the seer has an option to consider it for his selection.

Do others agree with this, or is there concern that posting the vote tree - and the analysis - helps the wolves with target selection?

[DaddyTorgo]

i don't see how it can help them more than it will help us (the villagers)

[Lathum]

I'm cool with it

[PurdueBrad]

People I trust: Poli, Autumn, Lathum

People I don't: Telle, Hoops, The Jackal

Middle-ground: The rest of you

[hoopsguy]

OK, going to hit the showers now then will start working on it. Day 1 is already posted in case others want to take a shot and I had Day 2 already done up until I left for soccer. So I should be able to get working on it in the next hour, for sure.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Lathum

So if I had to guess right now who are wolves I would say PB

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

So if I had to guess right now who are wolves I would say PB, Hoops and Poli. The way Poli is saying hoops is cleared is confusing me.

I'm only saying this in case I befall some horrible fate.

actualy, Poli's late vote on EF looks pretty good

[Poli]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Server?

Not sure. Winterhoof? Does that make sense? That's the world I'm in.

[Poli]

I'm still kind of new to that game.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Poli

Not sure. Winterhoof? Does that make sense? That's the world I'm in.

Yeah. Anetheron here.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Poli

I'm still kind of new to that game.

Me too, I haven't played all that much.

[Lathum]

Lightinghoof and Feathermoon

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

you should keep in mind that you're always suspicious of me though

i could reveal as the seer and you would still probably claim that i was bad

I left my vote on PB while discussing EF? Yeah, cuz we were like...at least 6 hours away from deadline (i forget what time it was exactly). Moving my vote willy nilly at that point does nothing, particularly because idk if we know what the tiebreaker might be.

For all we know, lathum's ability may have been triggered by getting enough of us to follow him on a vote, so maybe there was nothing wrong with my vote? Not like it got a roled villager lynched or anything. As a matter of fact, my eventual vote (quite early) helped us lynch a wolf.

And I would argue that Autumn and I and you to some extent, started discussing EF as a potential wolf at about the same time. I'm not about to go back and look at timestamps to verify that, but that is the way that it "felt" to me.

I went back through and looked. I think even though it was obvious that I was questioning Telle and obviously was not buying what she said, I didn't actually mention Eaglefan until I voted for him and explained that it felt to me that EF and Telle were in cahoots on day 1 and not Telle protecting ntn as some others claimed. Your posts were shortly after that, so I'll accept that you were near the start. I'm going to leave it at that as for me to go further in what my recap was I think would give too much of a roadmap for wolves to target tonight. It can be a conversation for tomorrow if people really want it.

Like I said before, my focus tomorrow is likely on Telle. your posts wern't sitting well with me likely because I had made up my mind about Eaglefan before you had started posting about him (and I often get tunnelvision on things). So this probably isn't really a line of discussion that is going to be too fruitful to continue really.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Lathum

actualy, Poli's late vote on EF looks pretty good

It does. You could make a case for it being a trust gainer after the issue was decided. But there was some chance for vote movement still, so it seems a chancy move.

I want to look back at the vote with the possibility of a wolf/wolf showdown though and see what that suggests.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

People I trust: Poli, Autumn, Lathum, Alan T

People I don't: Telle, Hoops, The Jackal

Middle-ground: The rest of you

Sorry, forgot Alan. Fixed.

[dubb93]

Altar of Storms, although I don't play anymore. They broked my class.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

People I trust: Poli, Autumn, Lathum

I'm not quite on the same boat as you about Lathum yet. I'll be nice and say that his perspective of the first two days and what they mean are about as completely opposite of mine as can be imagined. Part of me still wonders if he was completely honest with us, but in the end this isn't really a road I am ready to head down just yet.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I'm not quite on the same boat as you about Lathum yet. I'll be nice and say that his perspective of the first two days and what they mean are about as completely opposite of mine as can be imagined. Part of me still wonders if he was completely honest with us, but in the end this isn't really a road I am ready to head down just yet.

lol, you really are unbelievable sometimes

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Autumn

It does. You could make a case for it being a trust gainer after the issue was decided. But there was some chance for vote movement still, so it seems a chancy move.

I want to look back at the vote with the possibility of a wolf/wolf showdown though and see what that suggests.

I still don't believe that PB is bad right now, but this exercise could likely be fairly easy in attempting to see who wanted a third party instead of PB or EF on day 1 (ntn votes) plus a third party instead of the two today (Telle or Hoops vots). But more than just the votes, who actively pursued third options when it was just them on the block.

When I looked at this early this morning when I was trying to reconvince myself if I felt PB was still likely good, I noticed that the day 1 run off was EF + ntn at first, and ntn was slightly leading. Ntn showed up in the thread (there were actual posts stating he was there then), and suddenly votes started moving to a third party at that point (ended up being PB after a few other options were tossed about). Right now the strongest feeling i have are the people who were trying to keep the vote off of EF when ntn showed up (and it became likely some ntn voters might bail anyways now he was there).

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

lol, you really are unbelievable sometimes

I don't get what you mean. You have said tonight that you feel PB is still bad (which I don't). You have listed several people as your top targets such as Poli who isn't anywhere near my untrust list just yet, and you completely ignore the person who seems the most untrusted to me (Telle).

Like I said, you and I are seeing things from completely opposite perspectives right now. It makes me wonder why that is. That is all I said.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I'm not quite on the same boat as you about Lathum yet. I'll be nice and say that his perspective of the first two days and what they mean are about as completely opposite of mine as can be imagined. Part of me still wonders if he was completely honest with us, but in the end this isn't really a road I am ready to head down just yet.

Atleast it can be said Lathum has his own agenda. Lathum do you have your own victory conditions? I'm still not getting why you had to vote PB today and that even though you voted PB an EF lynch was good for you as well.

Originally Posted by Lathum

but the outcome was obviously not only a great one for the village but for me as well.

I'm not sure what to make of the above quote.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Altar of Storms, although I don't play anymore. They broked my class.

Which?

[Autumn]

I would like us to also keep in our minds the presence of those with different win conditions than us and the Needies. The Jackal is one, who knows how many more there are or how that could play out in voting or other actions.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by dubb93

7 - PurdueBrad - Latham (790), hoopsguy (822), Telle (1020), Abe (1045), The Jackal (1050), Lerriuqs (1137), Chief Rum (1166)

Really? You guys saw logic in what Lathum was saying. I know I voted with him early, but when it became obvious he was batshit crazy I moved my vote away. Why did you guys stay on PB?

I think you have to add DT and clap in there as honorable mentions.

By the way, I totally meant to 'accidentally' forget to unvote EF.

[Autumn]

dubb, we're on the same wavelength there.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Lathum

So if I had to guess right now who are wolves I would say PB, Hoops and Poli. The way Poli is saying hoops is cleared is confusing me.

I'm only saying this in case I befall some horrible fate.

Lathum, please don't be offended if I'm wrong and these are your actual thoughts. With your discussion with Alan T and then this post, I'm wondering something really odd.

1- Are you allowed to post your real beliefs?

2- Do you have to post the opposite of what you really believe?

3- Have you ever played World of Warcraft?


See, number three tests his answer to #2.

[The Jackal]

Let me make it clear that my main win condition is winning with the group and that I won't do anything for any side-condition that jeopardises that. I'm not just a loner or anything.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Which?

My mage. Spirit=gay

Anyone who was geared for the spirit buff/changes in general had to of been massively undergeared and near the bottom of their guilds damage meters prior to the patch.

[The Jackal]

Having said that, I hope whatever Lathum did/will be able to do has a positive impact for all of us, not just for him.

[hoopsguy]

Vote/unvote chart from Day 2:
790 - Lathum votes PB 1-0
810 - DT votes PB 2-0
822 - Hoops votes PB 3-0
823 - Clap votes PB 4-0
846 - Dubb votes PB 5-0
875 - Clap unvotes PB 4-0
951 - Alan votes EF 4-1 PB over EF
969 - Autumn votes EF 4-2 PB over EF
971 - DT unvotes PB votes EF 3-3 PB/EF
985 - BK votes Hoops 3-3-1 PB/EF over Hoops
1001 - Dubb unvotes PB 3-2-1 EF over PB over Hoops
1014 - Dubb votes EF 4-2-1 EF over PB over Hoops
1016 - Pass votes Hoops 4-2-2 EF over PB/Hoops
1017 - PB votes Hoops 4-3-2 EF over Hoops over PB
1020 - Telle votes PB 4-3-3 EF over Hoops/PB
1045 - Abe votes PB 4-4-3 EF/PB over Hoops
1047 - Jackal votes EF 5-4-3 EF over PB over Hoops
1050 - Jackal unvotes EF, votes PB 5-4-3 PB over EF over Hoops
1080 - Saldana votes EF 5-5-3 PB/EF over Hoops
1112 - MartinD votes EF 6-5-3 EF over PB over Hoops
1120 - BK unvotes Hoops, votes PB 6-6-2 EF/PB over Hoops
1123 - PF votes EF 7-6-2 EF over PB over Hoops
1137 - Lerriuqs votes PB 7-7-2 EF/PB over Hoops
1157 - Pass unvotes Hoops, votes EF 8-7-1 EF over PB over Hoops
1166 - Chief votes PB 8-8-1 EF/PB over Hoops
1169 - PB unvotes Hoops, votes EF 9-8 EF over PB
1194 - Saldana unvotes EF, votes Hoops 8-8-1 EF/PB over Hoops
1199 - Poli votes PB, votes 9-8-1 PB over EF over Hoops
1256 - INVALID - no unvote (Pass votes Telle), votes 9-8-1 PB over EF over Hoops
1258 - PB unvotes EF, votes Telle 9-7-1-1 PB over EF over Hoops/Telle
1261 - Poli unvotes PB, votes Telle 8-7-2-1 PB over EF over Telle over Hoops
1265 - BK unvotes PB, votes Hoops 7-7-2-2 EF/PB over Telle/Hoops
1285 - Clap votes Telle 7-7-3-2 EF/PB over Telle over Hoops
1291 - BK unvotes Hoops, votes Telle 7-7-4-1 EF/PB over Telle over Hoops
1315 - PB unvotes Telle, votes EF 8-7-3-1 EF over PB over Telle over Hoops
1318 - Poli unvotes Telle, votes EF 9-7-2-1 EF over PB over Telle over Hoops