Werewolf IX: Village of the Damned

[hoopsguy]

Absolutely, RA. But in the absence of other strong options I would be happy to proceed in this direction.

The bigger worry about both being villagers is that the score would fall to 13-3 without any strong voting patterns to look at. The sheer number of villagers, coupled with it being a two-horse race on Day 1 and a unanimous on Day 2, would provide a lot of cover for the werewolves.

Even in this worst case scenario, it is still 13-3 and more information (and disinformation) will come to light with the use of items.

Peregrine, just to confirm: there are no hidden roles in this game, correct? Everyone is villager/wolf/sorceror? Or am I making a bad assumption here?

[Peregrine]

Peregrine, just to confirm: there are no hidden roles in this game, correct? Everyone is villager/wolf/sorceror? Or am I making a bad assumption here?

Correct, those are the only roles. Though there are a lot of items of course, including that pesky Book of the Damned. In theory a wolf can use that to corrupt a villager into a sorceror, of course it's quite expensive.

[RealDeal]

I don't have any better leads, so I'm going with Fouts. If he is wrong, then I plan to lynch him tomorrow.

Vote Lathum

[Coffee Warlord]

Granted, I came out firing last game, much like Fouts is doing here. And got lynched for my efforts, despite the fact I was (as it was later discovered) completely telling the truth.

Hmm. Witholding my vote for the time being until/unless Lathum defends himself.

[digamma]

Wow. I guess the wolves helped us by mistake.

Though, like hoopsguy, I'm a bit confused at how the sorcerors could have actually hurt us. Nevertheless, our numbers are strong.

[RealDeal]

Originally Posted by digamma

Wow. I guess the wolves helped us by mistake.

Though, like hoopsguy, I'm a bit confused at how the sorcerors could have actually hurt us. Nevertheless, our numbers are strong.

I believe that the sorcerers win if the wolves win. So it was definitely harmful to us to have the king, who hands out items and has two votes, as a sorcerer.

I think the wolves screwed up big time last night.

One other thing: are roles assigned randomly or not? One reason I was suspicious of Qwik was because every game he ends up with one of the unique roles. My theory is that the moderator may assign vets the more complex roles, while assigning less experienced players to be the rank and file roles. This isn't so much a game comment as a general observation, but it definitely figured into my suspicion of Qwik. It may have been totally off base, but it served us well in the first lynching.

[Superman=#54]

I don't like to bandwagon early on in the day. Let's make this interesting. Fouts does not have me totally convinced.

Vote Fouts

I will happily change my vote if there is more evidence to support Fouts claim.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by RealDeal

I believe that the sorcerers win if the wolves win. So it was definitely harmful to us to have the king, who hands out items and has two votes, as a sorcerer.

I think the wolves screwed up big time last night.

Fair point, however I think the rules up front pretty explicitly state that neither the wolves or the sorcerors knew who one another are/were. The king would have been guessing like anyone else--absent the knowledge of a wolf through some other object--which I think is another reason to clear henry at this point--we know he wasn't talking to jeff.

Originally Posted by RealDeal

One other thing: are roles assigned randomly or not? One reason I was suspicious of Qwik was because every game he ends up with one of the unique roles. My theory is that the moderator may assign vets the more complex roles, while assigning less experienced players to be the rank and file roles. This isn't so much a game comment as a general observation, but it definitely figured into my suspicion of Qwik. It may have been totally off base, but it served us well in the first lynching.

I'm pretty sure Peregrine has stated a number of times before that he assigns roles using a random number generator.

[RealDeal]

For the record, Fouts doesn't really have me convinced either. But the fact he is willing to stick his neck out makes me willing to go with him. He knows that if he's wrong, he'll be lynched next. It's so early in the game that there's no reason for him to do this unless he knows something.

[Superman=#54]

I agree sticking your neck out this early is very dangerous if he turns out to be wrong.

[BrianD]

Currently I am leaning toward believing Fouts. It is way too early to make bold statements unless you are sure they are correct.

[hoopsguy]

Some of the conversation earlier revolved around vote changes when Qwik accumulated four votes. It is pretty clear that Jeff, as the other sorcerer, tried to protect his ally. However, I don't think there is anything that we can pick up right now from voting patterns on Day 1 now that both sorcerers are dead.

We may be able to come back to Day 1 votes later when we are looking for evidence on wolf activity, but I sure hope we have more compelling claims at that time.

Anyone else have different thoughts on Day 1 voting so far?

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Fouts

Well, I shall spill the beans that were handed to me. I had the amulet of seeing yesterday and chose to view one person. Unfortunately, the amulet was stolen from me by somebody whilst I slept. Use it well, thief.

I am quoting part of the post that made me highly suspicious of him. Luckily, I was right, you can all thank me later.




Lathum is a werewolf. Kill him dead.

I vote Lathum

Couple of questions here.

#1: What use is the amulet if it can be stolen before you use it? (in general to everyone)
#2: You say you were highly suspicious, and then you flat out say he was a werewolf. If you weren't able to use the amulet, how are you so sure? (to Fouts)

I think we can be convinced of Fouts' honesty if no one comes forward to say they have the gloves of thievery (or whatever they're called), since Fouts should have them now. If someone else says they have them, then someone is lying, and I would lean more towards Fouts lying.

But if no one says they have the gloves, then Fouts could probably be telling the truth.

[henry296]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Couple of questions here.

#1: What use is the amulet if it can be stolen before you use it? (in general to everyone)

He was able to use it on Night 0 but it was stolen on Night 1. I assume that the thief wasn't able to use last night. However, I guess that Fouts could steal it back tonight.

[Poli]

I'd bet the wolves were really happy to see that qwik and I were receiving the majority of votes yesterday (I can't remember offhand who we tied with), considering they knew neither of us were wolves.

While I'd like to look closer at those that voted for me, I might want to take a look at those that spread their votes out among others. If I was a wolf, and I'm not, seeing votes piled on two others would make me more likely to throw my vote away this round.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Couple of questions here.

#1: What use is the amulet if it can be stolen before you use it? (in general to everyone)
#2: You say you were highly suspicious, and then you flat out say he was a werewolf. If you weren't able to use the amulet, how are you so sure? (to Fouts)

If I'm reading the progression correctly, then he could use the item, THEN it gets stolen. So it's technically feasible.

That said, if Fouts is lying, it seems an incredibly stupid move on the wolves' part. They've already lost both (? - is it only two sorcs?) Sorcerers, so they really can't afford to sacrifice one of their own.

Thoughts?

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Couple of questions here.

#1: What use is the amulet if it can be stolen before you use it? (in general to everyone)
#2: You say you were highly suspicious, and then you flat out say he was a werewolf. If you weren't able to use the amulet, how are you so sure? (to Fouts)

I think we can be convinced of Fouts' honesty if no one comes forward to say they have the gloves of thievery (or whatever they're called), since Fouts should have them now. If someone else says they have them, then someone is lying, and I would lean more towards Fouts lying.

But if no one says they have the gloves, then Fouts could probably be telling the truth.

Mask of Lies (2) – [Mask] The owner of the Mask will appear to the Amulet or Pendant as the opposite of their true role. A villager will appear as a wolf and a wolf as a villager.

That said, I'd find it doubtful that Lathum had it.

[BrianD]

semi-dola

Generally when I lynch Lathum early, he is innocent. When I joke about doing it but don't lynch him, he really is guilty. Add this thought to Fouts' statement and I think I'm ready to vote.

Vote Lathum

[Mr. Wednesday]

Let's give it a whirl...
vote Lathum

[Peregrine]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Couple of questions here.

#1: What use is the amulet if it can be stolen before you use it? (in general to everyone)
#2: You say you were highly suspicious, and then you flat out say he was a werewolf. If you weren't able to use the amulet, how are you so sure? (to Fouts)

I think we can be convinced of Fouts' honesty if no one comes forward to say they have the gloves of thievery (or whatever they're called), since Fouts should have them now. If someone else says they have them, then someone is lying, and I would lean more towards Fouts lying.

But if no one says they have the gloves, then Fouts could probably be telling the truth.

Just to clarify this one point, Fouts did use the Amulet before it was stolen.

[henry296]

Originally Posted by Peregrine

Just to clarify this one point, Fouts did use the Amulet before it was stolen.

I wish you hadn't said that... we now know that Fouts did have the Amulet when it was possible that we was lying about even having viewing powers.

[Peregrine]

You don't know he has the amulet, I'm just telling you the ordering of the activations. I'm not trying to clear him, I'm just saying that if anyone has questions about the way an item is activated or what order it was in should ask me about it before going after someone about it.

[henry296]

Originally Posted by Peregrine

You don't know he has the amulet, I'm just telling you the ordering of the activations. I'm not trying to clear him, I'm just saying that if anyone has questions about the way an item is activated or what order it was in should ask me about it before going after someone about it.

Sorry for the accusation. I assumed your use of "did" was an affirmative confirmation of his use instead of a hypothtical that he "could" use it before it was stolen. Therefore if you have an item and it is stolen you activate the item and it is stolen afterwards.

[Eaglesfan27]

I believe Fouts. Of course, if he lied to us, he should be the next to be lynched.


I vote Lathum.

[Coffee Warlord]

Whelp. Barring a burst of insight from someone, I'll believe Fouts.

Vote Lathum

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Peregrine

You don't know he has the amulet, I'm just telling you the ordering of the activations. I'm not trying to clear him, I'm just saying that if anyone has questions about the way an item is activated or what order it was in should ask me about it before going after someone about it.

Sorry to put it out there in general. Wait one sec to see if I can comprehend all of this...there's something that doesn't "sit quite right".

[Peregrine]

It's not a problem, I agree that Fouts' post was pretty confusing. I'd just prefer in the future if you have questions about whether someone CAN do something (like use an item, then have it stolen) that you ask me, you can ask me in general if you want. I'd prefer not to see someone railroaded based on rules questions that I could answer, you're free to railroad them for any other reason of course!

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Fouts

Well, I shall spill the beans that were handed to me. I had the amulet of seeing yesterday and chose to view one person. Unfortunately, the amulet was stolen from me by somebody whilst I slept. Use it well, thief.

I am quoting part of the post that made me highly suspicious of him. Luckily, I was right, you can all thank me later.

Lathum is a werewolf. Kill him dead.

I vote Lathum

Okay...complete quote. Fouts' language is strange in this. He states that he viewed one person...if he viewed Lathum, why didn't he out and out say it? I don't understand what was suspicious that he said, other than he said that it's a strong possibility that you're a wolf.

I'm still not sure that Fouts viewed Lathum. I'd like to hear some supportive argument from Fouts or a message or something from Lathum before I vote.

[Vince]

AE makes a good point -- though statistically unlikely, we could be going after two villagers (fouts and Lathum) if Lathum indeed has the Mask of Lies.

[OOC]I have an afternoon shift today, so I'll be gone most of the day -- I should be back in time to vote, but just in case...[/OOC]

I vote Lathum. It's rather unlikely that Lathum has the Mask of Lies, and since I won't be able to analyze much while away from the computer, this is where I'm going with it.

[henry296]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Okay...complete quote. Fouts' language is strange in this. He states that he viewed one person...if he viewed Lathum, why didn't he out and out say it? I don't understand what was suspicious that he said, other than he said that it's a strong possibility that you're a wolf.

I'm still not sure that Fouts viewed Lathum. I'd like to hear some supportive argument from Fouts or a message or something from Lathum before I vote.

I think Fouts is trying to help explain why he would have picked Lathum out of the entire village to use his power.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Vince

AE makes a good point -- though statistically unlikely, we could be going after two villagers (fouts and Lathum) if Lathum indeed has the Mask of Lies.

[OOC]I have an afternoon shift today, so I'll be gone most of the day -- I should be back in time to vote, but just in case...[/OOC]

I vote Lathum. It's rather unlikely that Lathum has the Mask of Lies, and since I won't be able to analyze much while away from the computer, this is where I'm going with it.

Not true. It is statistically likely that we're voting for two villagers. 17 villagers and 3 wolves, right?

[RealDeal]

If we kill Lathum and he has the mask of lies, won't we find out when we kill him?

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by henry296

I think Fouts is trying to help explain why he would have picked Lathum out of the entire village to use his power.

LOL. Just because somebody thinks it's a strong possibility you're a wolf, you think that is suspicious? If people aren't paranoid, then there's something wrong here. The only person I think is human is me. Other than that, you're all fair game...

Didn't we think jeffy was human?

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by RealDeal

If we kill Lathum and he has the mask of lies, won't we find out when we kill him?

Unfortunately no. From what I understand, it's a one use item activated when you're viewed.

[RealDeal]

Well if Lathum was a villager and had the mask of lies wouldn't he want to say so? We might kill him anyway to find out, but it would help the villager team by avoiding an unnecessary killing of Fouts afterwards.

[hoopsguy]

RA, this feels relatively low risk to me.

If we vote Lathum and he ends up not wolf, then we go after Fouts the next day. The only way we are getting two villagers here is if:
1.) Fouts is a villager and he is lying (to what end? no hidden roles ...)
or
2.) Lathum had the bad luck to be viewed by one of the two viewing items in the game on the exact night he was holding the only item that would give a false positive.

The strategy of calling someone out first thing in the morning makes very little sense for a wolf. Since I think Fouts has played the game well in both games (where I've been on the opposing side of him) I think it is unlikely for him to make a major strategic error as a wolf. So I believe Fouts saw what he is indicating he saw.

Vote Lathum

[Vince]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Not true. It is statistically likely that we're voting for two villagers. 17 villagers and 3 wolves, right?

If we were randomly voting for Lathum and Fouts? Yes, then you're right. However...

We're assuming that Fouts is telling the truth -- lying at this stage in the game is rather pointless, as he now has a death warrant by tomorrow at the latest if Lathum turns out to be a good guy.

Since he's telling the truth (we think), Lathum is one of two things --

1) Villager with the Mask of Lies
2) Werewolf

The likelihood of Lathum having that particular item last night is rather small, so it's statistically unlikely that he is in fact a werewolf.

I'm off to work now (which by my track record means I'll be back in 20 minutes because I don't actually work until 2 PM ) -- good luck today guys.

[digamma]

I guess we don't have anything else to go on at this point.

I also don't really see a reason for Fouts to make this play unless he has some actual knowledge.

As an aside, I don't think it too unreasonable to expect that Lathum will tell us he has the mask of lies. I'm not sure that would change my vote. If he is telling the truth (he did use the mask of lies), and we find out he is a villager, it gets us toward vindicating Fouts, which helps us out with numbers along the way.

Vote Lathum

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

LOL. Just because somebody thinks it's a strong possibility you're a wolf, you think that is suspicious? If people aren't paranoid, then there's something wrong here. The only person I think is human is me. Other than that, you're all fair game...

Didn't we think jeffy was human?

ObPedantic: He was.

[BrianD]

dola

I do find if funny how many people are perfectly willing to lynch a villager if it means a wolf gets lynched next. People think it doesn't matter if a villager dies while helping to expose a wolf, but it certainly matters to that villager. I guess I'm just not as flippant about a villager death as some others are.

[Raiders Army]

Again, something just doesn't feel right about this. Before I vote for Lathum (which I will probably do), I'd like to hear from him. His silence is...strange...although it's not so strange considering the "I'm drunk" thread he posted early this morning.

I have no idea what Fouts would gain by lying. I'd also like to hear back from him again before I vote, since this vote is critical for him. If we vote to lynch a wolf, we're assured Fouts is on the level. If we vote to lynch a human...well, somebody's head is on the chopping block. The thing I hate right now is the pure speculation (to which I'm contributing).

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by RealDeal

Well if Lathum was a villager and had the mask of lies wouldn't he want to say so?

It's also entirely possible that he'd say so even if he were a wolf who didn't really have the mask.

[hoopsguy]

I do find if funny how many people are perfectly willing to lynch a villager if it means a wolf gets lynched next

I hear what you are saying on this, Brian. But with a 17-3 advantage right now in numbers I feel that the villagers collectively should be willing to do this. Agreed that it is not particularly cool to be the potential 'sacrifice' but everyone knows going into the game that there is a strong likelihood of dying. Better to die in a calculated risk than by whimsical Day 1 voting or by a clever web of misinformation by the werewolves, I suppose.

RA, speculation is what we do in this game until we vote. If you have a different way of reading the collective data we have gathered I would be interested in hearing it.

I'm not dead set on voting for Lathum (or Fouts, alternatively) at this point in the game. But without a better set of choices to work with I would rather go down this path than guess blindly when 85% of the remaining entities are villagers.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by digamma

I guess we don't have anything else to go on at this point.

I also don't really see a reason for Fouts to make this play unless he has some actual knowledge.

As an aside, I don't think it too unreasonable to expect that Lathum will tell us he has the mask of lies.

I doubt he had it...since I'm now in possession of it. It was passed on to me last night. Since it was passed to me, it means I have the mask that started in the game. Lathum couldn't have used it, so he's a wolf if we're to believe Fouts. I believe Fouts.

That said, wolves, don't think you're getting a hold of this mask of lies by killing me tonight. I plan on passing it to the person with the Hammer of the Blacksmith tonight. [waves at the owner of the Hammer of Blacksmith] I know who has the Hammer thanks to using the Hood of the Spy last night.

VOTE Lathum.

[Poli]

To amplify, I know that if Lathum had the Mask last night, when Fouts used the amulet the Mask would have been automatically used. Since it was passed on to me, the previous owner wasn't viewed last night.

[Raiders Army]

Well, good enough for me at this point. I guess I can always change

Vote Lathum

I really put this in the "waaaaaaaay too easy" category. Two sorcerors and a wolf down? The other two wolves must be scrambling at this point.

[SnDvls]

after reading through it all I have nothing to add to his guilt or non-guilt so I'll jump on the train.

vote Lathum

[digamma]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I hear what you are saying on this, Brian. But with a 17-3 advantage right now in numbers I feel that the villagers collectively should be willing to do this. Agreed that it is not particularly cool to be the potential 'sacrifice' but everyone knows going into the game that there is a strong likelihood of dying. Better to die in a calculated risk than by whimsical Day 1 voting or by a clever web of misinformation by the werewolves, I suppose.

I guess this is where I come out too. At this point, this seems to be the way we get the most information.

***mumbles to self***damn, I'm agreeing with hoopsguy too much.

[Raiders Army]

Come to think of it, we're almost at the point where if you don't vote for Lathum, you're doomed. If he's a wolf (and it's almost a certainty at this point), then the other two wolves have to vote for him...

[henry296]

There is no complelling evidence to not vote for Lathum.

VOTE Lathum