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Old 11-01-2006, 12:13 AM   #2301
spleen1015
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday View Post
Well, spleen, what do you think now that your sure zombie has proven to be not so sure after all?

I think I judged her wrong. Now, I really don't know if there are 2 left or not.

The only thing I am sure of is you and hoops are STARS. It is possible that you are the converted zombie even though you sniped another.

I have no freaking idea.
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Old 11-01-2006, 12:20 AM   #2302
Chief Rum
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Originally Posted by spleen1015 View Post
I think I judged her wrong. Now, I really don't know if there are 2 left or not.

The only thing I am sure of is you and hoops are STARS. It is possible that you are the converted zombie even though you sniped another.

I have no freaking idea.

Look out--your pants are on fire.
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Old 11-01-2006, 12:28 AM   #2303
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I sure didn't expect DC to be Umbrella.

We have two choices. Spleen or Chief Rum. Everyone else is confirmed.

Spleen - if zombie, then Chief Rum, SnDvls, Brian and DC had the numbers over me, Mr. Wed and hoops, with spleen as a tie vote. They could vote anyway they wanted to.

As a zombie, spleen would only know as much information as we gave him. Who would he vote for? How could he swing the voting to keep the other sides from winning without outing himself?

Chief Rum - if zombie, then SnDvls, Brian and DC were up against me, spleen, Mr. Wed and hoops.

As a zombie, Chief Rum could make all the moves he did. Would Umbrella sit by and let him do it? If Chief Rum is Umbrella, why would he try to have us off the last zombie, knowing Umbrella would lose? He wouldn't.

Chief Rum has to be zombie.

Mr. Wed or hoops look it over and tell me if I'm wrong.

(The only thing I don't understand is why Brian would let us lynch 2 Umbrella in a row. He even helped us vote for them.)
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Old 11-01-2006, 12:35 AM   #2304
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Fouts, I'm still working through things. The one thing I've settled on, is it would be a ballsy play of epic proportions for you to not be who you claim to be.
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Old 11-01-2006, 12:36 AM   #2305
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Originally Posted by Fouts View Post
I sure didn't expect DC to be Umbrella.

We have two choices. Spleen or Chief Rum. Everyone else is confirmed.

Spleen - if zombie, then Chief Rum, SnDvls, Brian and DC had the numbers over me, Mr. Wed and hoops, with spleen as a tie vote. They could vote anyway they wanted to.

As a zombie, spleen would only know as much information as we gave him. Who would he vote for? How could he swing the voting to keep the other sides from winning without outing himself?

Chief Rum - if zombie, then SnDvls, Brian and DC were up against me, spleen, Mr. Wed and hoops.

As a zombie, Chief Rum could make all the moves he did. Would Umbrella sit by and let him do it? If Chief Rum is Umbrella, why would he try to have us off the last zombie, knowing Umbrella would lose? He wouldn't.

Chief Rum has to be zombie.

Mr. Wed or hoops look it over and tell me if I'm wrong.

(The only thing I don't understand is why Brian would let us lynch 2 Umbrella in a row. He even helped us vote for them.)

Actually I made a mistake (one of tons this game, unfortunately) because I did think there were two zombies left. I would not have named spleen if I thought he was the last one.

We could not guarantee anything when we couldn't control how the zombies would vote. And on top of that, well, things have been a bit fractured over here in Umbrella, in case you didn't notice (SnDvls anyone?). We couldn't guarantee a vote for crap because we haven't been able to agree all game.
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Old 11-01-2006, 12:37 AM   #2306
Chief Rum
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Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday View Post
Fouts, I'm still working through things. The one thing I've settled on, is it would be a ballsy play of epic proportions for you to not be who you claim to be.

MrW, I have been thinking that very same thing. I don't see how it is possible. But this game is starting to screw with my head a bit.
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Old 11-01-2006, 12:40 AM   #2307
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Dola, since you're trying to think this through, let me offer one thought that might help you:

The endgame play for a lone zombie is to go one-and-one here on out. It's iffy, because of the risk of failure on a kill attempt, but he can count on Umbrella's help in keeping him alive (so that the STARS don't win) and works as the swing vote to keep Umbrella from getting a majority (rather than either 50% or a tie).

I'm not sure yet if this squares with Spleen's voting.
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Old 11-01-2006, 12:48 AM   #2308
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Also, assuming that hoops is who he claims (and it would be only slightly less risky than Fouts for him to be otherwise), I've eliminated the possibility of 3 STARS, 4 Umbrella, 2 zombies yesterday -- it would have made sense from the point of view of how the voting has developed, but obviously the personnel don't work out if LSG, myself, hoops, and Fouts were all STARS.
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Old 11-01-2006, 12:48 AM   #2309
Chief Rum
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Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday View Post
Dola, since you're trying to think this through, let me offer one thought that might help you:

The endgame play for a lone zombie is to go one-and-one here on out. It's iffy, because of the risk of failure on a kill attempt, but he can count on Umbrella's help in keeping him alive (so that the STARS don't win) and works as the swing vote to keep Umbrella from getting a majority (rather than either 50% or a tie).

I'm not sure yet if this squares with Spleen's voting.

Yes, if there is one zombie after all, as it appears, then that changes our (Umbrella, that is) approach altogether. I'm not nearly as interested in seeing that zombie die just yet anymore.

You, of course, are on the other side of things.
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Old 11-01-2006, 12:52 AM   #2310
Chief Rum
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Also, assuming that hoops is who he claims (and it would be only slightly less risky than Fouts for him to be otherwise), I've eliminated the possibility of 3 STARS, 4 Umbrella, 2 zombies yesterday -- it would have made sense from the point of view of how the voting has developed, but obviously the personnel don't work out if LSG, myself, hoops, and Fouts were all STARS.

Wow, how about this? We have been talking about converts. I have counted Umbrella members as my own, but it never occurred to me until just how real the possibility is that one of us was converted. A convert would explain the issues we have had internally.

As such, it makes me wonder if BrianD is a converted zombie. How would Fouts read a player who was Umbrella and was converted? Would he read him as Umbrella or zombie? Brian has been in on everything we have tried to day, but has largely gone against the grain for us, especially recently.

I may in fact be the only Umbrella left.
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Old 11-01-2006, 12:58 AM   #2311
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Fouts (hoops too), when you get a chance, would you be interested in taking a look at the day 4 vote again? I'm having a hard time making any sense at all of it. Page 57 is towards the end of it and I'm guessing there will be a set of vote recaps to work off of.
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Old 11-01-2006, 12:59 AM   #2312
Mr. Wednesday
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Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
Wow, how about this? We have been talking about converts. I have counted Umbrella members as my own, but it never occurred to me until just how real the possibility is that one of us was converted. A convert would explain the issues we have had internally.

As such, it makes me wonder if BrianD is a converted zombie. How would Fouts read a player who was Umbrella and was converted? Would he read him as Umbrella or zombie? Brian has been in on everything we have tried to day, but has largely gone against the grain for us, especially recently.

I may in fact be the only Umbrella left.

Fouts would read a converted Umbrella as a zombie, if I read Chubby's comments correctly.
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Old 11-01-2006, 01:05 AM   #2313
Chief Rum
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Fouts would read a converted Umbrella as a zombie, if I read Chubby's comments correctly.

I hope you're right, because that at least would take one seriously messed up scenario out of the running. One other thing concerns me, though--Brian is the research scientist and says his research is coming up with nothing. He sent us a couple early PMs, and they were pretty vanilla. I wonder if he actually has found something--and it could protect his identity.

Of course, if Fouts is playing a super-ballsy role, who knows what matters? It's on his basis that many people are cleared. Sprinkle just enough truth in there that turns out right, and you can start really taking some risks and yet have people buy into it.
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Old 11-01-2006, 01:19 AM   #2314
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I think hoops is a more probable mole than Fouts right now. The basic problems I have for Fouts are that for him to have the knowledge that it wasn't risky (converted STARS seer), he wouldn't have the knowledge to fake still being the seer, and a fake reveal from any other position would have run a huge risk of being contradicted. The only way I can make it work is if he were a converted police chief with the chief knowing not only who is in the unit, but also what their role is (then, by elimination, he would also know who the Umbrella are) -- but there, as I recall his voting record was not remotely in accord with being the chief.
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Old 11-01-2006, 01:28 AM   #2315
Chief Rum
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I think hoops is a more probable mole than Fouts right now. The basic problems I have for Fouts are that for him to have the knowledge that it wasn't risky (converted STARS seer), he wouldn't have the knowledge to fake still being the seer, and a fake reveal from any other position would have run a huge risk of being contradicted. The only way I can make it work is if he were a converted police chief with the chief knowing not only who is in the unit, but also what their role is (then, by elimination, he would also know who the Umbrella are) -- but there, as I recall his voting record was not remotely in accord with being the chief.

They are both bright enough and experienced enough to make some calculated guesses (whichever one, if either, it could be). It's possible one had some early knowledge from a good role (chief or IA), was converted, and has made some guesses since then that have happened to work out. After all, I figured out much myself through voting records, and I don't consider myself half as accomplished as they are. I haven't been 100% right at all, but I have hit on a lot. If they are even better at this and got a little lucky, who knows?

But, let's face it, this is all based on a hypothetical that one of them is indeed a mole. And either one would be a significant longshot. But you have to consider everything, no matter how unlikely it seems.

For instance, in the Tombstone game, I was convinced--convinced!-- that Anxiety was a baddie, and put Lathum and spleen on a similar trust level to what Fouts and hoops enjoy right now. And I was dead wrong (dead being literal after Lathum shot me dead to win the game for himself and spleen).
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Old 11-01-2006, 01:40 AM   #2316
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Huh? If I were converted seer, I never would have come out. We would be severely screwed right about now. Also I viewed hoops on the night on the conversion. I viewed Mr. W and Brian after the converter was dead.

It can only be 1 of 2 people (or both), and that is spleen and Chief Rum.

spleen - wanted us to kill DC, who was Umbrella. He pointed at CR, but voted for DC. Why? If it is spleen, then CR, SnDvls, Brian and DC could push the vote anyway they wanted to. No need to hide, they would control the game.

Chief Rum - wanted us to kill spleen. Why? If spleen is STARS, its the perfect play. If spleen is the the last zombie, CR and Umbrella lose! Horrible move. CR said spleen was not the last zombie, but there was nobody else because he knew DC was Umbrella (if he were Umbrella).

Chief Rum has to be a zombie. Nothing else makes sense!
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Old 11-01-2006, 01:40 AM   #2317
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Fouts, if the Chief is correct that there is only one zombie, then I think there are the following possibilities:
  • The Chief himself - that would mean that we are at 4-1-1 and will control the vote tomorrow no matter what happens tonight. (I'm basically disregarding the possibility of spleen as Umbrella.)
  • Spleen - that would mean that we are at 3-2-1 and, regardless of what happens tonight, Umbrella have almost no chance of winning themselves but may be able to block us from winning
  • hoops - approximately the same situation, but our chances of a favorable result tonight are drastically reduced
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Old 11-01-2006, 01:44 AM   #2318
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Didn't Chubby say the view comes after the convert attempt? I scanned hoops on Night 3. The only chance for a conversion. That scan showed Hoops as STARS.
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Old 11-01-2006, 01:46 AM   #2319
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OK, thanks. I forgot about that.
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Old 11-01-2006, 01:47 AM   #2320
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That is the correct order. The order of operations doesn't really help you much IMO and I had been asked in PM (and gave the answer) so it's only fair I answer it here as well.

Bump. Post # 1407.
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Old 11-01-2006, 01:48 AM   #2321
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Mr. W, tell me how it can't be Chief Rum. Why wouldn't Umbrella take control of the game if it were SnDvls, Brian, DC and CR?
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Old 11-01-2006, 01:49 AM   #2322
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spleen - wanted us to kill DC, who was Umbrella. He pointed at CR, but voted for DC. Why? If it is spleen, then CR, SnDvls, Brian and DC could push the vote anyway they wanted to. No need to hide, they would control the game.
Well, if you assume that spleen is a lone zombie here, then his endgame is voting one side down, then killing the other, allowing neither outright control of the vote.

Quote:
Chief Rum - wanted us to kill spleen. Why? If spleen is STARS, its the perfect play. If spleen is the the last zombie, CR and Umbrella lose! Horrible move. CR said spleen was not the last zombie, but there was nobody else because he knew DC was Umbrella (if he were Umbrella).

Chief Rum has to be a zombie. Nothing else makes sense!
How confident are you of this? Confident enough to be in a situation where you and hoops have to rely on Brian to finish off spleen if you're wrong?
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Old 11-01-2006, 01:51 AM   #2323
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Heh heh it wouldn't be a WW game if Fouts didn't throw suspicions at me.

Well, I don't expect to avoid suspicion, nor have I made it any secret I am not on your side, so I won't bother to argue points on any of that. We'll just have to see how things continue to play out. I'm sure tonight will give us more information with which to work.

I work all day tomorrow, but will probably try to check in on my lunch break again. Night.
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Old 11-01-2006, 01:59 AM   #2324
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How confident are you of this? Confident enough to be in a situation where you and hoops have to rely on Brian to finish off spleen if you're wrong?

Very tough call. The problem is if the zombie kills me or hoops at the same time as your move, then it is 1-1-1. Umbrella decides who wins.
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Old 11-01-2006, 01:59 AM   #2325
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Mr. W, tell me how it can't be Chief Rum. Why wouldn't Umbrella take control of the game if it were SnDvls, Brian, DC and CR?

Assume, arguendo, that at the start of the day yesterday, we have -
Umbrella: SnDvls, Brian, DC, CR
STARS: You, me, hoops, LSG
zombie: spleen

Then, NEITHER side controls the vote. We're both stuck at 44%, with spleen the swing vote. ANY outcome works for him -- he's got a pool of known STARS to work from for night kills, so it's probably somewhat better for him to be voting off Umbrella during the day.

Umbrella's play might make a little more sense here... despite their numbers, they are actually in a bad position as they need one of two things to happen to win, me to snipe a STARS or a STARS lynch followed by a STARS night kill. Trouble is, we scotch that on day one by voting for SnDvls.

That brings us to Chief's reveal.
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Old 11-01-2006, 02:00 AM   #2326
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Heh heh it wouldn't be a WW game if Fouts didn't throw suspicions at me.

Well, I don't expect to avoid suspicion, nor have I made it any secret I am not on your side, so I won't bother to argue points on any of that. We'll just have to see how things continue to play out. I'm sure tonight will give us more information with which to work.

I work all day tomorrow, but will probably try to check in on my lunch break again. Night.

Why didn't Umbrella take over the voting when you had SnDvls, Brian, DC and you?
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Old 11-01-2006, 02:02 AM   #2327
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Assume, arguendo, that at the start of the day yesterday, we have -
Umbrella: SnDvls, Brian, DC, CR
STARS: You, me, hoops, LSG
zombie: spleen

Then, NEITHER side controls the vote. We're both stuck at 44%, with spleen the swing vote. ANY outcome works for him -- he's got a pool of known STARS to work from for night kills, so it's probably somewhat better for him to be voting off Umbrella during the day.

Umbrella's play might make a little more sense here... despite their numbers, they are actually in a bad position as they need one of two things to happen to win, me to snipe a STARS or a STARS lynch followed by a STARS night kill. Trouble is, we scotch that on day one by voting for SnDvls.

That brings us to Chief's reveal.

Ok. Thanks for those numbers. I'm going to look back and see where they wanted us to vote. I believe it was spleen, but that would mean that Umbrella loses.
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Old 11-01-2006, 02:06 AM   #2328
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Now, Chief's reveal makes ZERO sense if he's still Umbrella. It's too early for Umbrella to give up (spleen could screw up, it's even conceivable that I could screw up).

However, if he's a zombie... then the situation was actually 5-3-1, with Brian, DC, and SnDvls believing that spleen was a zombie. Chief's position is a bad one, because the STARS control the vote and aren't showing any inclination to make the mistake of voting for STARS. The fake reveal gives him a shot at swing the vote onto spleen, then he could night kill to get down to 3-3-1 and the preferred endgame.
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Old 11-01-2006, 02:07 AM   #2329
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Yep, post 2074 is CR's reveal, and in post 2075 he votes for spleen. If CR were Umbrella (along with SnDvls, Brian, and DC), why lynch the last zombie? Game over, STARS wins.
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Old 11-01-2006, 02:08 AM   #2330
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That's assuming, of course, that we don't have a situation where both the Chief and spleen are zombies, but his reveal makes even less sense then than in the case where he's the lone zombie.
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Old 11-01-2006, 02:11 AM   #2331
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Also, you'll notice he reveals as the Umbrella seer, but gives us no new information, except that spleen (his target) is zombie. We have to take his word on it that spleen + another zombie will eat us.
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Old 11-01-2006, 02:12 AM   #2332
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And I think the best thing for me to do is nothing at all, and hope that hoops chose correctly or the die roll favors us.
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Old 11-01-2006, 02:12 AM   #2333
Fouts
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And take his word that he is, in fact, a seer. No proof, of course. Umbrella would be saying, ok, kill spleen, we don't care.
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Old 11-01-2006, 02:12 AM   #2334
Fouts
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Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday View Post
And I think the best thing for me to do is nothing at all, and hope that hoops chose correctly or the die roll favors us.

With one zombie, I think you are right. We'll see what happens tonight.
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Old 11-01-2006, 02:14 AM   #2335
Mr. Wednesday
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I've talked myself out of any scenarios that involve two zombies.
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Old 11-01-2006, 02:28 AM   #2336
Fouts
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I've talked myself out of any scenarios that involve two zombies.

If there are 2 zombies, we are in big trouble and need a block tonight. I don't think there are, 1 kill each of the past 2 nights. Also CR going after spleen, and they are the only 2 candidates.
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Old 11-01-2006, 07:00 AM   #2337
hoopsguy
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It sounds like the night conversation went in the same direction as where I was at last night - that probability is pretty good that Chief is our Zombie. I would expect him to be the convert for Umbrella to have supported him over the last 1 1/2 days.

If I try to think like a converted Umbrella Zombie, then here is what I come up with:
- I know that I want to keep my Umbrella guys around, as they will support me with votes
- Therefore, I'll make my move for the win with the idea that STARS+Umbrella should be reduced to Umbrella as quickly as possible
- At that point it is anyones game. Umbrella should have been coordinating votes early and voting together late (when applicable) so voting record analysis will be useless once STARS are gone
- a Night 5 kill on LSG is selecting a target who is unlikely to be guarded while casting more suspicion on the guy I'm trying to set up for a fall - Spleen
- I can not offer up an Umbrella target with my "seer" reveal on Day 5 without tipping my hand to the other Umbrella members
- If there was another Zombie I would be taking a large risk offering him up as well, compared to offering up an uncleared STARS player
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Old 11-01-2006, 07:02 AM   #2338
hoopsguy
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Fouts, the one kill each of the past two nights does not necessarily tell us anything. If there was only one Zombie then the chances of him successfully launching one kill each evening is 50% - so only 25% chance of him being successful with his solo play.

Could be taking place, but if that is the case it would appear to me from the results that the Zombies have been pretty fortunate with their dice rolls this game.
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Old 11-01-2006, 07:48 AM   #2339
spleen1015
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VOTE Chief Rum

I won't be on much today prior to 6pm.
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Old 11-01-2006, 07:48 AM   #2340
spleen1015
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CRAP!

I forgot that we're not passed the deadline yet. Chubby ignore that vote.
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Old 11-01-2006, 08:58 AM   #2341
Lorena
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Dangit Chubby, where are you? The anticipation is killing me!
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Old 11-01-2006, 09:11 AM   #2342
Chubby
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Another night, another person missing at dawn. It's getting awfully scarce at these morning meets in the town square...

The citizens quickly realize that Fouts is missing and head over to his house. When they get to his house, they see he's nowhere to be found. His coat and belongings seem to be missing as well!

Puzzled, they head over to the Raccoon City Police Department where they finally find Fouts. They find him in the Internal Affairs Department at his computer. On his computer screen it says:

"Search for: spleen1015"

The blinking cursor indidcates that Fouts had not yet hit enter to get his search results back before his brains had been eaten but a very hungry zombie.

Day Seven Ends Wed 11pm EST
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Old 11-01-2006, 09:31 AM   #2343
spleen1015
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For real this time...

VOTE Chief Rum
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Old 11-01-2006, 09:33 AM   #2344
spleen1015
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hoops and Mr. W, we still have numbers. If we vote to lynch Chief Rum today, and he's not a zombie, then that leaves BrianD as zombie. He can only kill one person tonight, so we can still win the game.
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Old 11-01-2006, 10:04 AM   #2345
Mr. Wednesday
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VOTE Chief Rum
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Old 11-01-2006, 10:12 AM   #2346
hoopsguy
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Spleen, BrianD is not a Zombie. Fouts scanned him the previous night.

Bummer about Fouts - I protected him last night so he was the only guy I could not protect last night. Wish I had gone with my initial gut on Night 5 and left him unguarded for the 2nd night in a row. But if he had been picked off that night I would never have heard the end of it from Fouts. First the poison dart, then never guarding the seer Anyways, lets try to make a good lycnh today.

The fact that the Zombies are getting a kill every night leads me to believe they may still have two people left. I'm certain that BrianD is not a Zombie and I know I'm not. I have no similar assurances on anyone else.

Chubby, would the Sniper retain their ability if they were converted?
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Old 11-01-2006, 10:24 AM   #2347
Mr. Wednesday
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spleen, there's no way Brian is a zombie. It's either Chief or you, and I think it's much more likely to be him than you.
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Old 11-01-2006, 10:25 AM   #2348
BrianD
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Yeah, I'm not a zombie.
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Old 11-01-2006, 10:26 AM   #2349
Mr. Wednesday
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If taking down Chief today doesn't end the game, I guess we'll find out who's faster on the draw tonight -- me or spleen.
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Old 11-01-2006, 10:27 AM   #2350
Chubby
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
Spleen, BrianD is not a Zombie. Fouts scanned him the previous night.

Bummer about Fouts - I protected him last night so he was the only guy I could not protect last night. Wish I had gone with my initial gut on Night 5 and left him unguarded for the 2nd night in a row. But if he had been picked off that night I would never have heard the end of it from Fouts. First the poison dart, then never guarding the seer Anyways, lets try to make a good lycnh today.

The fact that the Zombies are getting a kill every night leads me to believe they may still have two people left. I'm certain that BrianD is not a Zombie and I know I'm not. I have no similar assurances on anyone else.

Chubby, would the Sniper retain their ability if they were converted?


It doesn't say they would lose it in the rules, does it?
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