131st Kentucky Derby

[QuikSand]

We are rapidly approaching the first Saturday in May, meaning the most exciting two minutes in sports is almost on us.

I confess that I have not kept up my usual end of the deal in pumping up this race, but that has been reflective of my life generally. I have not been out to the track at all this year, and have watched the prep races less closely than in years past.

However, the time is right for Derby fever to peak.

Here is a good link for some of the data, if you are so inclined:

Free DRF past performance data

[QuikSand]

Here's an article on the race favorite, BELLAMY ROAD.

- - - - -

DRF link

Bellamy Road ideally drawn
By JAY PRIVMAN

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Bellamy Road, the runaway winner of the Wood Memorial, landed post 16 and was installed as the morning-line favorite when the expected full field of 20 horses was entered Wednesday night for the 131st Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form's national handicapper, made Bellamy Road the 5-2 choice. He has Afleet Alex, the Arkansas Derby winner, next at 6-1, with Bandini, the Blue Grass Stakes winner, at 8-1. Mike Battaglia, the linemaker at Churchill Downs, also has Bellamy Road at 5-2, with Afleet Alex at 9-2 and Bandini at 6-1.

The draw for post positions at the Derby is a two-step process. In the morning, a blind draw was held in the Churchill racing office to determine the selection order for the 20 runners. Then, during a national telecast on ESPN that emanated from the Triple Crown Room of the Jockey Club Suites at Churchill, a representative from each 3-year-old picked their respective post position.

There was intrigue surrounding this draw, because of the presence of the speedy Spanish Chestnut. He is owned by Derrick Smith and Michael Tabor, who also own Bandini. In the Blue Grass, Spanish Chestnut set a rapid pace that aided Bandini, and it is assumed he will have a similar mission in the Derby - ensure a quick pace while compromising the chances of some prominent front-runners, most notably Bellamy Road.

Bellamy Road had the 10th choice, and his trainer, Nick Zito, selected post 16. Spanish Chestnut had the 12th choice, and his trainer, Patrick Biancone, took post 13, surprisingly putting him inside of Bellamy Road, even though post 17 was available.

"I'm not racing against Bellamy Road," Biancone said. "I thought 13 is a good number."

Zito was seemingly relieved by that development, which should allow Bellamy Road to stalk Spanish Chestnut, though there will be pace pressure from Going Wild.

"I wanted Bellamy Road outside. I think we got everything we wanted," said Zito, who has five runners in the Derby, including Andromeda's Hero, High Fly, Noble Causeway, and Sun King.

Bandini had the first pick. Tabor took post 15, the first spot in the auxiliary gate.

"We wanted to be toward the outside," said his trainer, Todd Pletcher, who also will send out Coin Silver and Flower Alley. "We felt like we had more options" from that spot, Pletcher said.

Afleet Alex had the second pick. His trainer, Tim Ritchey, took post 12. The field is double loaded, beginning with posts 1 and 11, so Afleet Alex will be the third or fourth horse loaded into the gate.

"I would have taken 15 if we had the first choice," Ritchey said. "I thought about 16, but 12 is a good spot."

The final two picks belonged to the longshot Going Wild, who ended up in post 19, and Santa Anita Derby winner Buzzards Bay, who had to settle for post 20.

Of the other highly regarded runners, Louisiana Derby winner High Limit ended up in post 6, Florida Derby winner High Fly got post 11, Florida Derby runner-up Noble Causeway will break from post 4, and Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Wilko wound up in post 14.

The Derby's purse was doubled this year to $2 million, and was further enhanced by the $200,000 that owner B. Wayne Hughes paid to supplement Greeley's Galaxy to the race. The overall Derby purse, which includes entry and starting fees, is $2,399,600. The winner's share, provided there are no late scratches, will be $1,639,600.

Greeley's Galaxy, the Illinois Derby winner, was not an original nominee to the Triple Crown, and only was able to get into the Derby field because fewer than 20 original nominees entered the race. Hughes also owns Don't Get Mad, the winner of the Derby Trial.

"I'm glad to have it behind me," said Hughes, who had to hope no last-minute entries spoiled his plans. "I thought we would get them both in."

Asked if he was nervous writing the $200,000 check, Hughes smiled and said, "My secretary did it."

"I think you get it back if you win, and that's what I'm planning to do," Hughes said.

Hughes believed his colt deserved to be in the race based on merit, and he also was desirous of seeing Warren Stute, the 83-year-old trainer of Greeley's Galaxy, have a starter.

"I think it's the highlight of his training career, even though he won that million-dollar race in Dubai," Hughes said. Stute won the 2002 Godolphin Mile with Grey Memo.

"I've been to quite a few big races," said Stute, who has been training for 60 years. "I'm kind of over the nervousness."

Wednesday morning, both Greeley's Galaxy and High Limit recorded their final workouts for the Derby.

Greeley's Galaxy, under exercise rider Mikki Fincher, traveled five furlongs in 1:01.60. He seemed to tire late in his second straight disappointing work over this surface.

"I was hoping to work him faster, but that's all right, he went good enough," Stute said. "He finished his last half-mile good. He just went off a little slow."

High Limit, by contrast, completed his sharp series of preps with an easy half-mile breeze in 48.20 seconds with exercise rider Jose Cuevas.

"He did it himself. Real easy," Cuevas said. "I was just a passenger."

* It was clear and cool Wednesday, with a high in the low-60's, but it is expected to warm considerably by the weekend. The National Weather Service is forecasting a high of 74 degrees on Friday and 80 on Saturday. There also is a "slight chance of a thunderstorm" Saturday, according to the weather service.

- additional reporting by David Grening and Mike Welsch

[QuikSand]

I recently sent a note to a few friends, outlingin my evolving Derbybatting strategy -- here's an excerpt:

- - -

Okay, then, I have another very nice price horse for your consideration.

Only two weeks ago, in the Lexington (run at the notoriously speed-favoring track at Keeneland), COIN SILVER made one of the more eye-opening moves of the entire prep season. He did not break well (though he usually does), and had to fight his way wide on the backstretch and into the second turn, before working through traffic and pushing onward for a solid driving finish. He was 13-1 in that race, but put forth a career-best effort by far, posting a BRIS speed figure of 108 -- third-best figure posted by anyone in this field.

He has since managed to throw up a very solid workout -- running 5 panels in 1:01 flat and, according to local clockers, was visually impressive.

And, just to add to your own allure -- there's a personal connection. He is by ANEES, a fella who has alreadly lined your pockets quite handsomely, as I recall. [My friend won quite handsomely when ANEES took the BC Juvenile at Gulfstream park a few years ago] With back breeding to Conquistador Cielo, there shouldn't be any real pedigree problem, though I confess I don't have his Dosage profile handy.

Morning line says 20-1. I say that's a monster overlay.


Here's my CRUSH ticket right now:

TRIFECTA:

4 NOBLE CAUSEWAY (12-1)
5 COIN SILVER (20-1)
12 AFLEET ALEX (9-2)

with

4,5,12 and
3 SUN KING (15-1)

with

3,4,5,12 and
15 BANDINI (6-1)
18 CLOSING ARGUMENT (30-1)

That's a $36 ticket right now... but is most definitely prone to creeping upward.


It's only Thursday. Lots of money to be lost between now and post time.

[QuikSand]

I have been saying positive things about 12-1 shot NOBLE CAUSEWAY for a few weeks, and have been touting him as a nice price horse. I like his breeding (and am optimistic that sire Giant's Causeway may become a truly great stallion) and running style for this race -- he ought to be full of run at the top of the stretch, and poised to make a move on lots of horses who will have been working hard to stay at or near the lead to that point. With a crowded field of front-runners and stalking types, this Derby may set up nicely for a solid stretch run. NOBLE CAUSEWAY ran second behind fleet-footed HIGH FLY in the Florida Deby (on a speed-favoring track at Gulfstream), and has had a full five weeks off to keep training up to this race -- which I actually like here. Trainer Nick Zito has kept him sharp -- I like the pattern of works, culminating with the 1.00 pseudo-bullet on May first over the CD track. Plus, I like the switch to a proven big race jockey (and occasional actor) in Gary Stevens - that won't hurt, either.

I also have a general guess that the 12-1 morning line might hold or even improve -- the superficial indicators like speed figures and recent wins point to other horses. ALl the better at the windows.


I like this horse, and I am prepared the love the price.

[Senator]

Quiksand,

I look forward to these Derby breakdowns from you every year.

Thanks for the Racing Form. Now, Brisbet time.

How can any rational person not be blown away by BELLAMY ROAD? I have never bet on a Kentucky Derby Favorite, and I probably won't this year. But, wow, it is an impressive last few races.

Right now, I am leaning towards, HIGH FLY and the horse you like, NOBLE CAUSEWAY. Nick Zito would be proud of me.

Looking forward to more of your thoughts as we get closer to the race.

[QuikSand]

BELLAMY ROAD owns one of the biggest prep race speed figures in recent history. I don't even know any other horse who has posted a 115 pre-Derby, much less a 120.

Here's the one knock (other than the short price) I'll put up on him, and it's why I'm leaving him completely out of my betting. Bellamy Road is a speed-type, he has won all his two turn races one way -- get to the lead, and don't let anyone catch you. Running from the 16th spot (well outside) and in a field with quite a lot of other horses who can flash speed -- it seems likely that he will at the very least be running wide, he'll probably be in a pack of early runners, and will probably not have any chance to really run clear like he seems to prefer.

Last year, at Keeneland, he got challenged for the lead -- he was ahead by only 1/2 a length at the second call (I believe that would be at the :47 half mile). And what happened? He completely ran dry, got his doors blown off (incidentally, by the only top-grade competition he has ever faced, Consilidator) and limped home in a one mile race.

Maybe he wasn't in great shape for the Keeneland effort (though this was the Breeder' Futurity, a high profile event and a fairly rare chance to run a Grade I as a 2yo) -- but that effort continues to worry me about him. If he is the type who wilts under pressure -- he could end up running a totally dismal 15th in this Debry field, and it wouldn't surprise me at all. Every year, we find a few of these types. Maybe this year, it's the favorite?

To sum it up, DRF style: Taking a stand against.

[Senator]

dola:

Just looked at your CRUSH ticket. wow.

[QuikSand]

One more thing about Bellamy Road -- he's really only had one impressive race. Yes, he won by open lengths against allowance company before the Wood, but who did he beat? Nobody. His speed figure there, in the middle of March, running on a wholly uncontested lead on a predominantly speed-biased track at Gulfstream, was not excaptional -- in fact, he probably needed a top-two showing in the Wood just to be considered for the Derby. Yes, any time you pull away and win by open lengths like that it looks good... especially when they don't focus too much on the barnyard animals running behind him.

[QuikSand]

I am aggressively talking myelf out of SUN KING, and am modifying the CRUSH ticket as we speak. I'm trying to find room to work HIGH FLY in there... less of a crush, but I like the ticvet better. I may have to use CLOSING ARGUMENT on the second tier as well. Ugh.

[albionmoonlight]

I'm cheering for HIGH LIMIT since he won the Louisiana Derby and I am from Louisiana. To pretend to get anymore scientific than that would be an insult to those of you who know and love the sport. Anything I should know about him or watch for?

[QuikSand]

On HIGH LIMIT:

Excellent trainer in Bobby Frankel, who has never had great success in the Triple Crown races. His jockey, Ramon Dominguez is a rising star, and has been a source of many good value bets for me here in the Mid-Atlantic region, from which he hails. He's been the best wise-guy jockey here for the last few years, ever since Edgar Prado left for the big circuits.

His run style is early speed -- he can comfortably maintain after half mile in about :46 or so, I'd say. I would not expect Dominguez to push him too hard early, but from post #6, he might even have a chance to establish inside on the rail in the first stretch.

It would be a real surprise to see him hold on from there throughout -- I think his best tactic would be to let some of the other speedsters get away from him, but to stay in position. This is despite the startling fact that HIGH LIMIT has never passed another horse in any race in his lifetime - indeed, the nly horse who has ever been ahead of him at any point of any race was Bandini, who (regrettably for High Limit) blew his doors off to win the Blue Grass Stakes a few weeks ago.

He doesn't have impeccable breeding, and some question his ability to get the 1 1/4 mile Derby distance... myself included. So -- he looks to many like just another contender, a front-running type with distance questions, who needs to surprise people to stil be there when they head for home. But, much the same thing could have been said about recent Debry horses Lionheart (2nd last year), Peace Rules (3rd a few years ago) and even War Emblem (winner).


And, incidentally, if you meant "watch for" in the literal sense... well, he'll be the one ridden by the jockey in red silks with a row of black diamonds across his middle.

[FishFan]

Let's take a look at the field...

1 SORT IT OUT: Bob Baffert's last gasp Derby entrant. He's a come-from-behind closer that could be picking up pieces with a fair track (on Derby day? yeah, right). Posted decent speed figure last out when beaten by COIN SILVER in the Lexington, but I'd say he doesn't have a chance in this one. Granted, the last time I threw out a Baffert horse, he won the damn race (see WAR EMBLEM).

2 ANDROMEDA'S HERO: I like this Nick Zito entrant even before he won the Sam Davis. He's another rallier and could find a spot in the gimmicks (i.e. tri/super), especially is all the speed dies coming out of the far turn. I can see this horse winning some of the smaller Derbies like Ohio and Pennsylvania if he is pointed to those types of races.

3 SUN KING: Another Zito entrant who got a lot of my support as a 2yo. In fact, he still owes me money from the BC Juvenile last fall. But, he has been inconsistent, especially in G1 races (3-0-0-2). I can envision a scenario where he could win this race or fill out a nice trifecta ticket. Of course, I can also envision a scenario where he finishes 17th.

4 NOBLE CAUSEWAY: Like Quik, I have been high on this horse for quite some time, ever since he finished second in a maiden race at Gulfstream Park to BANDINI in January. I love his breeding and he should relish the extra distance. In my opinion, the key to unlocking the Derby secret lies in the Florida circuit (with HIGH FLY and BANDINI). He'll likely get my support on Saturday with a solid win bet.

5 COIN SILVER: Todd Pletcher's darkhorse ran a great race in the Lexington a couple of weeks ago, showing a change of tactics. In three previous races, he has jumped to the lead but in the Lexington, he came from off the pace after some trouble leaving the gate. Gets PVal for the Derby. This horse will factor into my trifecta and superfecta tickets.

6 HIGH LIMIT: Bobby Frankel's lone entrant is a pure speed horse. He beat a very weak field in the Louisiana Derby and lost to the only quality 3yo he's faced. He'll be eaten alive by the early speed in this race. I'm throwing this one out.

7 FLOWER ALLEY: Another Pletcher entrant who has only four career starts which is usually a negative heading into the Derby (HIGH LIMIT and GREELEY'S GALAXY also come in on just four starts). Did not beat anyone in the Lane's End and was soundly beaten by AFLEET ALEX when finishing 2nd in the Arkansas Derby. He get blinkers for the first time in this one, for what it's worth. I'll use on bottom of my superfecta, at best.

8 GREATER GOOD: I keyed this horse on top of a nice trifecta ticket in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park a couple of months ago. At that time, I thought he was heading in the right direction, but he ran a clunker against AFLEET ALEX in the Arkansas Derby. If he returns to his previous form, he could land in the exotics.

9 GREELEY'S GALAXY: This horse was supplemented for $200,000 after romping in the Illinois Derby where he, too, beat nobody. What will this horse do when challenged? Was he supplemented just so 81-year old trainer Warren Stute could get another Derby entrant? I'll throw him out.

10 GIACOMO: I have this horse in the first KY Derby Futures pool at 50-1, which I thought was a great price at the time. He's 50-1 on the morning line. Despite an excellent workout this week (6f in 1:11 and 4), I'll toss this horse, too. He's just one of several bad west coast runners.

11 HIGH FLY: This Zito entrant has shown a lot of heart in wins over BANDINI and NOBLE CAUSEWAY. A bad trip in the Holy Bull is the only reason he's not entering the gate with a perfect record in six races. With Jerry Bailey aboard, I will definitely use him in most of my tickets.

12 AFLEET ALEX: If you like betting with history, this is your horse. Of all the legitimate horses in this field, he's the only one with a solid 2yo campaign, at least three prep races as a 3yo and is coming into the Derby with a race in the previous four weeks. He's only run one bad race (gave up at the 3/16 pole in the Rebel) and had an excuse for that one (breathing issue). He rebounded with his best performance to date and could be coming into this one in great shape. Definitely playable.

13 SPANISH CHESTNUT: This horse has sprinter/miler written all over him. Can he get the 1 1/4 distance? Absolutely not. He'll set some honest fractions and if the other speed horses go with him, the race will play right into the hands of stretch running horses (see NOBLE CAUSEWAY). I'm throwing this one out completely.

14 WILKO: I was on my way to scoring a nice exacta ticket in the BC Juvenile last year until this one came out of nowhere to shock the field at 28-1. He hasn't done anything since and his foreign jock, "Frankie" Dettori, is not coming over for the Derby. Like GIACOMO, this one could not beat a bad crop of west coast runners. Toss.

15 BANDINI: The Pletcher/Velazquez combo is always a dangerous one. This one is coming off a Bluegrass victory and a close second to HIGH FLY in the Florida Derby (had that race gone 1 1/4, he would have been up). He has shown improvement in each of his last four races and, out of FuPeg, can get the distance. He'll be on top of my exotic wagering.

16 BELLAMY ROAD: After the Wood, I told my friends this is your Derby winner. After I had a chance to digest that race, I am having second thoughts. He did not beat anyone in that race and was never seriously challenged. Plus, speed was winning everything at Aqueduct that day. He won't run another 120, but he must be respected. I'll use him in my exotics, but will avoid using him on top. Of all the speed horses in this race, this one has the best chance of sticking around at the end.

17 DON'T GET MAD: This horse out of STEPHEN GOT EVEN ("don't get mad, get even" - get it?) has won three races in three tries at Churchill Downs. But, I view this horse as a closer in sprints and mile races. I don't think he can get the 1 1/4 distance, but could pick up pieces if the race falls apart.

18 CLOSING ARGUMENT: Here's another horse that likes to be near the lead. He was on my radar several months ago but fell off after a lengthy layoff. He reappeared in the Bluegrass and had a troubled trip. Intriguing horse, but the pace will probably kill this one, too. Toss?

19 GOING WILD: D. Wayne Lukas just can't miss a Derby. This horse has no business in this field. He couldn't win out west, he couldn't win in the east, and he couldn't win at Keeneland. He can't win in Kentucky, either. Of course, the last time I threw out a Lukas horse (PROUD CITIZEN), he completed something like a $1400 exacta with the winner, WAR EMBLEM.

20 BUZZARD'S BAY: The infamous Jeff Mullins enter this horse who was on my watch list entering the Santa Anita Derby. He had no chance in that race at 30-1 so I did not bet him. He won fairly easy. He had a killer workout this week, but this is another horse who, with his outside post, will be done in by the lightning fast pace.

I haven't finalized anything yet, but my trifecta ticket could look something like this:

4, 12, 15
4, 12, 15, 3, 11
4, 12, 15, 3, 11, 2, 5, 8, 16

[FishFan]

Damn, that's an expensive ticket...

[Tigercat]

Wilko has so much going against him at this point that there is no way he is not my horse. No Juvie winner has ever won the Derby, no million dollar winner has ever won it either, not to mention he hasn't looked good in forever...

Hes gonna shock the world!

[Ragone]

Everyone should experience louisville during derby week once in their life..

[Airhog]

QS: Im going to the track tomorrow for the first time. It's a company sponsored event. As part of the package everyone is getting 6 track bucks. Its good for anything at the track including betting. I thought about playing the pick 6, but maybe I am in over my head there. Any advice for a first time bettor?

[Ksyrup]

I know less than nothing about horse racing, although I always happen to catch the Derby and other high profile races, not to mention I've watched a bit of that horse racing channel on DirecTV every now and then...

Anyway, I thought it was interesting hearing someone this morning on ESPN Radio talk about how Spanish Chestnut and Bandini might be colluding to win the Derby for Bandini. Basically, the suggestion was that SC would take all of the speed horses with him at the start, including Bellamy Road, and tire them out, giving Bandini a great shot at pulling it out at the end. The guy said that because the two horses have different owners, it shouldn't be allowed.

Is this just sour grapes from someone who has an interest in the race (I have no clue who was talking), or has this been discussed in racing circles?

[albionmoonlight]

Thanks for the info on HIGH LIMIT. Looks like I could have picked a better horse to back, but that is no longer my most pressing Derby Concern. For various complicated reasons, I have to drive to and from the Derby party instead of Mrs. A. That means my plan to get smashed on Mint Juleps has hit a terminal snag. I'll be stone cold sober when HIGH LIMIT gets blow away.

[FishFan]

I'm not sure what that guy on sports radio was talking about. Both SPANISH CHESTNUT and BANDINI are both owned Derrick Smith and Michael Tabor but they are under the care of two different trainers. I have no problem with someone sending a rabbit out there to tempt the early speed. There is nothing more boring than a merry-go-round race.

[Ksyrup]

I only caught about 30 seconds of it, but he said he didn't like the term 'rabbit,' preferring to suggest SC was a 'cougar,' whatever the hell that means. And I'm fairly certain he said he had a problem with it because of different owners and that collusion like that shouldn't be allowed. Maybe he was referring to another horse that he had mentioned before I started listening.

Anyway, that's all I got out of the discussion before I got to the end of the street and put the CD in the player...

[sportsfan13]

What about the High Fly, Bandini, Noble Causeway Trifecta?

[Senator]

Originally Posted by sportsfan13

What about the High Fly, Bandini, Noble Causeway Trifecta?

That is where I am heading.

[sportsfan13]

Originally Posted by Senator

That is where I am heading.

I'm just really impressed with High Fly! And Bandini looks pretty strong. I think I'll stick with these three....

[sportsfan13]

BTW, if there are any Clevelanders that want to join me and CleBrownsfan, we'll be at Thistledown Race Track Saturday morning for the festivities! Should be a blast....it has been the past two years I was there!

[condors]

Afleet Alex is from the area and they did a special on the horse, i don't know nothing about horse racing but i have a rooting interest now.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Airhog

QS: Im going to the track tomorrow for the first time. It's a company sponsored event. As part of the package everyone is getting 6 track bucks. Its good for anything at the track including betting. I thought about playing the pick 6, but maybe I am in over my head there. Any advice for a first time bettor?

Sure.

First - use the track bucks for betting. More fun that way, gives you a better story if you end up getting lucky.

I would recommend that you put $2 to win on a few horses that you like in the early races -- no need to be scientific about it, necessarily. If you're looking for some simple angles, look for jockey Edgar Prado -- he will be in town that day, and he is vastly underrated in Kentucky, so his odds will not be depressed like they are for the other top-skill riders.

But just have fun. If you want to learn about the racing form and such, I'm sure there will be people there who can help you a bit. If you get that far -- then you can try to play the "track bias" -- if front-running speedsters win the first couple of races, look for some cheap speedy horse in the third, and put a couple bucks on him. You won't be alone, but you will feel like you earned it, rather than just threw a dart. That's the beginning of feeling like a handicapper.


We'll look forward to reading the dynasty thread on Monday.

[cthomer5000]

Work finds me at Belmont Park all day tomorrow, where I'm certain they'll have off-track betting on the Derby (in addition to their own festivities for their 100th anniversary). It was good to know this thread was coming.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Airhog

QS: Im going to the track tomorrow for the first time. It's a company sponsored event. As part of the package everyone is getting 6 track bucks. Its good for anything at the track including betting. I thought about playing the pick 6, but maybe I am in over my head there. Any advice for a first time bettor?

I'll do you one better.

Race 3, Horse #2. ELIJAH'S SONG, ridden by the illustrious Edgar Prado. Last time out he had impossible traffic trouble, had to run practicallu out on the edge of the track, and still manage to close ground late for a solid third place. He's capable of better than that, and ought to fare even better here at Churchill than at the other tracks where he has run before. He's 4-1 in the morning line, and against a fairly low-grade field, that could be a bargain.

That race ought to go off at about noon Eastern time, if you are there to see it (it should be simulcast onto the television screens at your track). Here's what you'll say to the teller.

"CHURCHILL DOWNS, THIRD RACE, TWO DOLLARS TO WIN ON NUMBER TWO"

If you're feeling frisky... edit the amount of the wager as it suits you.
Lots of luck.

[QuikSand]

I don't find too much to disagree with from FishFan's post above. I am tossing out more horses than he in first blush (he's being charitable -- which is wise since it's always embarassing to look back at the eventual winner and see that you called him a "fleabag" before the race) and I am considering CLOSING ARGUMENT to be live ... but the analyses I saw there are just fine for a shorthand look at the field.

One area where I'd disagree is with BELLAMY ROAD. With him, I don't buy the theory that you use him, but not on top. I'm quite the oposite -- with a horse who shoudl run toward the lead, I don't have any reason to think he will "hang in there" for a solid second or third. Either he runs his race, is truly a superior animal, and probably wins this thing easily ... or he wilts under pressure and drops out of the picture. My betting is going to reflect the latter, but I don't see him being a tough losing customer, getting passed by one or two horses but hanging on for a piece. If there's a horse who does that this year, I'd guess it's HIGH FLY. Just a different opinion, FWIW.

[QuikSand]

Here's another pick for the CDX undercard:

7th race, #6 WARNING ZONE

Great trainer/rider combo, Pletcher is winning at an insane rate right now, and this horse looks very sharp in his second North American race. He's a proven winner, the mile shoud be a fine distance for him, and the class looks about right. If you get the morning line of 9-2 (meaning your $2 bet wins you $11) it's an absolute gift - he looks to be in very good shape here. I'd take him to win about eight out of ten against the morning line favorite #7 TICKER TAPE... a horse with all the wrong signals (unknown trainer, dreadfully overrated jockey, and far less proven explosiveness). Possible nice overlay (meaning the odds will be too high, making him a nice value bet.

CHURCHILL DOWNS, RACE 7, TWO DOLLARS TO WIN ON NUMBER SIX

I'll probably have in a similar ticket. Maybe for three dollars or so, even.

[Airhog]

Thanks for the advice QS. Im not going to the kentucky derby itself, I am going to the local track. The comapny event doesnt start until 4:30 CST so I won't be there for most of the early races. I didnt plan on betting on the Kentucky Derby races actually, but only because I dont wanna have to watch those races on T.V. when the real thing is going on outside. Ill just try to have some fun, and not worry to much about the winning

[Honolulu Blue]

Thanks everyone for the analysis and discussion.

For several reasons, I'm not as interested in this Derby as the past two. But for what it's worth, here's my quickie analysis of things:

THE A STUDENTS - These are the horses that really ought to win, given their normal performances and average luck: BELLAMY ROAD, AFLEET ALEX. Bellamy is bettable at 6-1 or better, while AA looks good at 8-1. I'm not holding my breath and you shouldn't either.

THE B STUDENTS - If by chance the top two fail to fire, these are the ones that are most likely to pick up the pieces. Any or all are decent risks at 15-1: NOBLE CAUSEWAY, GREELEY'S GALAXY, WILKO, BANDINI.

Exacta fans can box the A and B students and have a reasonable chance of catching a winning ticket. You might win less than you bet, but hey, that's racing.

THE C STUDENTS - These guys have vague chances to win. Fliers are acceptable on any or all at 30-1 or better: SUN KING, HIGH LIMIT, HIGH FLY, DON'T GET MAD.

Trifecta fans can put the A and B students in the top two with all qualifying students in third. Not really recommended because it's so expensive, but there you go.

THE DROPOUTS - The other horses have minimal chances of winning. Don't bet on them at any price.

And that's my take, worth about what you paid for it. As always, this is for entertainment purposes only.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Honolulu Blue

Bellamy is bettable at 6-1 or better, while AA looks good at 8-1. I'm not holding my breath and you shouldn't either.

I'll lay 100-1 odds that you don't get 6-1 on Bellamy Road.

[Senator]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I'll lay 100-1 odds that you don't get 6-1 on Bellamy Road.

No kidding.

[FishFan]

Dammit, Quik. I studied the undercard for hours today and came up with two solid horses that I am looking for prices on tomorrow: #2 ELIJAH'S SONG in the second race and #6 WARNING ZONE in the sixth race. And you go and broadcast it to the board. Thanks.

Seriously, those are two horses that I will be betting if their prices are right, which I expect they will be. You might want to think about using the #4 horse, WORK, along with ELIJAH'S SONG in the second for what could be a nice exacta payout. There are other horses I like on the undercard, but I don't have my papers with me right now (although remember the name HARVARD AVENUE).

As for BELLAMY ROAD, I want to see him fade into oblivion and I might restructure my tickets without him to make them more cost-effective. I don't think he will run back to his Wood performance and I believe he will flinch when another horse challenges him. But, damn, that Wood performance...

[RPI-Fan]

QS (or anyone): I wouldn't mind having a cheap ticket for the race tomorrow, but know next-to-nothing about horse racing, and definitely nothing about this year's Derby.

Any advice for what kind of cheap bet(s) to play for tomorrow's race (and for that matter, how exactly I would buy said ticket at the OTB -- what do I say, etc.)?

I'll feel much more confident in my play if someone who knows what they're talking about leads me in a direction.

Thanks!
~rpi-fan

[FishFan]

FWIW, AFLEET ALEX is favored in the Oaks/Derby double and is the 7-2 favorite in early wagering action. BELLAMY ROAD is 9-2, BANDINI 5-1, HIGH FLY 7-1, NOBLE CAUSEWAY 11-1.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/64797.html

[CHEMICAL SOLDIER]

Originally Posted by FishFan

Damn, that's an expensive ticket...

Im just hoping for a good race.

[Senator]

Bellamy Road. I have made my bets, and have left you off them. Now, be sure and screw up my trifecta wagering. That is all.

[MrBug708]

Not a good year for the horses from the west....

[Senator]

Just curious, does anyone else on here use brisbet.com other than Quik and myself?

[QuikSand]

I was toying with a dynasty thread entitled "I didn't want an ipod anyway" -- but instead, I'll just detail my reckless day of wagering at CDX here in this post.

Race 3 - $10 WIN #2 ELIJAH'S SONG

Race 4 - $5 EX BOX #8 ON THE ACORN with #12 TEMPERED STEEL ($10 bet)

Race 5 - $2 PICK SIX: 5,11/6/6/9/1,10/4,5,12 ($24 bet)

Race 7 - $20 WIN #6 WINNING ZONE

Race 8 - $2 PICK THREE: 9/1,10/4,5,12

Race 9 - $5 EX BOX #1 METERO STORM and #10 A TO THE Z


Race 10 - The Kentucky Derby, Grade I at 1 1/4 miles

$2 EX BOX:
#4 NOBLE CAUSEWAY
#5 COIN SILVER
#12 AFLEET ALEX

$20 WIN #4, #5

$1 TRIFECTA:

4,5,12
with
4,5,12, #15 BANDINI, and #18 CLOSING ARGUMENT
with
4,5,12,15,18, #3 SUN KING and #11 HIGH FLY
(a $60 ticket, though I may be selling shares of it to friends)

$1 TRI:
#16 BELLAMY ROAD
with
4,5,12
with
4,5,12
(A $6 "saving" ticket -- if my horses do well but lose to the favorite, I'm covered)

$1 SUPER
4-5-12-3


Total wagered on the Derby: $119
Total wagered at CDX for the day: $205

Anticipated return from all wagers: $0.00

[QuikSand]

While the early wagering isn't always a great barometer -- it usually cal tel us what direction horses are moving from the early line.

Odds after Friday's Preliminary Wagering on 131st Kentucky Derby, as of 6:45 p.m. Eastern. Win pool: $382,859.

No., Horse, Odds
1, Sort It Out, 45-1
2, Andromeda's Hero, 48-1
3, Sun King, 15-1
4, Noble Causeway, 11-1
5, Coin Silver, 25-1
6, High Limit, 22-1
7, Flower Alley, 36-1
8, Greater Good, 35-1
9, Greeley's Galaxy, 26-1
10, Giacomo, 53-1
11, High Fly, 7-1
12, Afleet Alex, 7-2
13, Spanish Chestnut, 75-1
14, Wilko, 22-1
15, Bandini, 5-1
16, Bellamy Road, 9-2
17, Don't Get Mad, 19-1
18, Closing Argument, 66-1
19, Going Wild, 43-1
20, Buzzards Bay, 43-1


Early to say... but it looks like BELLAMY ROAD might not even go off as the favorite. That's a meaningful spread-- unless it was affected by a few heavy bets (possible in the early betting, not possible today). I'll see if I can pull down the real time odds.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Race 3 - $10 WIN #2 ELIJAH'S SONG

Race 4 - $5 EX BOX #8 ON THE ACORN with #12 TEMPERED STEEL ($10 bet)

3rd Race, Next Post 12:42 Off: 12:09
6 1/2 Furlongs. 3 Year Olds And Up Allowance Purse: $49,600
# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
7 Cap'n Capote Borel C H 124 19.00 8.60 4.40
9 Maytown Bejarano R 120 4.80 3.20
2 Elijah's Song Prado E S 122 2.60
Times in 5ths: :221 :444 1:084 1:151
Times in 100ths: :22.34 :44.85 1:08.89 1:15.26
Scratched: Bluegrass Fever
Also ran: Sterlingprospector, Can't Trick Jake, Work, Southlake Drive, Mister Hobbles and Go Lionel Go

4th Race, Next Post 1:24 Off: 12:42
1 1/16 Miles. (Turf) 3 Year Olds And Up Allowance Optional Claiming ($80,000) Purse: $57,000
# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
7 Mighty Military McKee J 120 25.40 11.60 7.00
9 Florida Keys Valenzuela P A 120 8.40 4.80
10 DQ-Cool Conductor Velasquez C 120 3.20
Times in 5ths: :243 :483 1:12 1:361 1:421
Times in 100ths: :24.65 :48.60 1:12.00 1:36.25 1:42.30
Scratched: Ball Four and Moonshine Hall
Also ran: On the Acorn (GB), Tempered Steel, Middleweight, Cartoonist, Minds Locked (GB), Jamian, Count On the Tuna, Dale Dale (CHI) and National Park (CHI)

- - -

So far, right on target. Money in = $0.00

[QuikSand]

5th Race Off: 1:24
7 Furlongs. 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes Purse: $231,000
# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
5 Battle Won Dominguez R A 115 35.80 17.00 10.40
6 Level Playingfield McKee J 112 37.00 14.40
12 Pomeroy Prado E S 118 4.00
Times in 5ths: :221 :44 1:074 1:202
Times in 100ths: :22.37 :44.12 1:07.85 1:20.56
Scratched: Lion Tamer
Also ran: Sir Shackleton, Harvard Avenue, Hasty Kris, Trickey Trevor, Grand Reward, Oceanus (BRZ), Gold Storm and Rushin' to Altar

- - -

Well... my pick six is alive and well, started off by a 15-1 shot (whom I did not, of course, bother to bet to win.

[QuikSand]

My second horse in the pick six also has won... and also without being backed up by a win wager. *sigh*

[Senator]

WARNING ZONE's odds are dropping.....

[Honolulu Blue]

Originally Posted by Senator

Just curious, does anyone else on here use brisbet.com other than Quik and myself?

I use it.

Might as well share this story on Smarty Jones, last year's Derby winner. He's having a fine time as a stud at Three Chimneys.

[Tigercat]

Besides cheering him on, I am getting a better feeling on Wilko as the day goes on. I actually think he might gut out a surprise today in a rough race. I might wait a little longer before dropping a bet though, hopefully not many will bet on him as conventional wisdom and his recent history scare people off.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Senator

WARNING ZONE's odds are dropping.....

Still at 4-1, though... not great, but still a solid bet, I believe.

Actually, with the #5 horse at 6-1 scratching, her drop from 9-2 to 4-1 isn't really being bet heavily -- it's just an adjustment to the narrowed pool. It's the #8 who is being bet more heavily than expected, down to 7-2 from the ML of 5-1.