14-15 NBA Playoffs Thread

[nol]

Originally Posted by Arles

But there is no double team since Bogut is sagging into the paint to help. The best course would be for Curry or Klay to try and fight over the screen to stay with either Lee/Conley. But, if they get caught in the screen, there is no help for the open jumper as Bogut is down with one foot in the paint.

If Curry and Thompson are bad enough defenders to get caught in a Tony Allen screen, then this discussion is irrelevant because Memphis could just score every time down by having any player set a screen on them. Memphis tried this last game and it didn't work because Bogut has zero feet in the paint; he just guards the ball handler for a split second until the guy who got screened gets back into the play.

The strategy isn't "Bogut stays in the paint," it's "Bogut plays free safety off Tony Allen to best shut down what the Grizzlies are trying to do."

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by nol

If Curry and Thompson are bad enough defenders to get caught in a Tony Allen screen, then this discussion is irrelevant because Memphis could just score every time down by having any player set a screen on them. Memphis tried this last game and it didn't work because Bogut has zero feet in the paint; he just guards the ball handler for a split second until the guy who got screened gets back into the play.

The strategy isn't "Bogut stays in the paint," it's "Bogut plays free safety off Tony Allen to best shut down what the Grizzlies are trying to do."

I would take Conley over Bogut on the perimeter all night.

[nol]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I would take Conley over Bogut on the perimeter all night.

Maybe in a game of 1 on 1, but it's Conley against a hedging Bogut and a recovering initial defender. Even then, Bogut is a first team all defense player.

In general, if a team with the best offensive frontcourt in the league has to consider running Tony Allen screen and rolls to counter a defensive strategy, then it's a pretty sound strategy.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by nol

Maybe in a game of 1 on 1, but it's Conley against a hedging Bogut and a recovering initial defender. Even then, Bogut is a first team all defense player.

In general, if a team with the best offensive frontcourt in the league has to consider running Tony Allen screen and rolls to counter a defensive strategy, then it's a pretty sound strategy.

Not if Conley is aggressive. If Bogut lays off, Conley's shot is off before Bogut gets to him. If Bogut plays up, he drives past him into the paint, with two defenders, including the Warriors' best interior defender in his rearview.

All of the NBA playoffs is strategy versus strategy. A strategy is only sound until it stos working. It doesn't really matter if it worked at some point in the past. If the Grizz start beating it regularly, Golden State will need to adjust.

[nol]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Not if Conley is aggressive. If Bogut lays off, Conley's shot is off before Bogut gets to him. If Bogut plays up, he drives past him into the paint, with two defenders, including the Warriors' best interior defender in his rearview

Translated, if Mike Conley makes the correct split-second decision every time against the league's best defense and makes a ton of shots it's a piece of cake. No arguing with that, but that's no longer a strategy.

[Vince, Pt. II]

I feel like the Warriors just played a terrible half of basketball and are up 8.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

I feel like the Warriors just played a terrible half of basketball and are up 8.

Not watching, but if Memphis is going to shoot 38% maybe they should play Tony Allen. Or is he hurt?

[nol]

He's hurt.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Allen was in street clothes.

So watching the game at a local bar, the first quarter was abysmal. Klay began with two contested jumpers with tons of time left on the shot clock and missed them both, and Randolph was on fire to open the game. Memphis up 10 early, threatening to push it even bigger...then the Warriors catch a few breaks and end the quarter on a hot streak and are somehow up one at the end of the quarter. Harrison Barnes carried the team in the first half - when he is aggressive, he can beat almost anyone that guards him off the dribble and he is a pleasure to watch. He and Steph both had too many turnovers (10 between the two of them) however. This game easily could have been put away in the middle of the third quarter, but the Warriors couldn't quite pull away until the middle of the fourth. Iguodala was huge in the second half.

I think Memphis deserves a lot of credit on the defensive end. It's easy to see the terrible passes and just think the Warriors are giving the ball away, but Memphis is a great defensive team even without Tony Allen on the floor, and they are responsible for a lot of those errant passes.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by nol

He's hurt.

No doubt hurt trying to screen the powerhouse upper body of Stephon Curry.

[Arles]

My favorite part of the game was the interview with Grizzlies coach Dave Joerger after the first period. Joerger says "We will did well to start, but we settled for too many long jumpers in the final 6 minutes". TNT shows this interview over the first two Grizzlies possessions (listed below):

11:44 Vince Carter defensive rebound
11:25 Vince Carter misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
11:23 David Lee defensive rebound
11:11 David Lee misses 7-foot two point shot
11:11 Kosta Koufos defensive rebound
11:04 Vince Carter misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot

Gotta love Vince. Coach be like "Guys, let's cool it on the long jumpers". Vince responds "I got this!"

[miami_fan]

Who is the next great offensive assistant? It would be criminal if Anthony Davis gets stuck with Thibs and no offensive mind for the next five years.

[nol]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Who is the next great offensive assistant? It would be criminal if Anthony Davis gets stuck with Thibs and no offensive mind for the next five years.

Alvin Gentry of the Warriors, who will probably get a head coaching job this summer.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by nol

Alvin Gentry of the Warriors, who will probably get a head coaching job this summer.

The guy with 4 previous head coaching stints and a .475 winning %? He'd be better than Monty (and some other current NBA head coaches), but I'm loath to tab a 60 year old as the next great head coach.

[stevew]

I don't see how the Cavs can do this with 3 of their top 4 players being hurt.

[nol]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

The guy with 4 previous head coaching stints and a .475 winning %? He'd be better than Monty (and some other current NBA head coaches), but I'm loath to tab a 60 year old as the next great head coach.

He was in charge of the Clippers' offense last year and the Warriors' this year, so he knows a thing or two. He coached under Donald Sterling and Robert Server at their peak cheapness, so I wouldn't hold that against him. As for age, George Karl got hired this year.

[kingfc22]

This 4th quarter ends any debate about Harden getting snubbed for MVP.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by nol

He was in charge of the Clippers' offense last year and the Warriors' this year, so he knows a thing or two. He coached under Donald Sterling and Robert Server at their peak cheapness, so I wouldn't hold that against him. As for age, George Karl got hired this year.

He's a decent coach, but he's a retread, not the next great anything. No matter how well your uncle knows him.

Unbelievable comeback here. Josh Smith/Corey Brewer takeover and McHale riding them instead of putting Harden back in??? I love it.

[Vince, Pt. II]

So my buddy just texts me "Clippers up 19 to start the 4th, Harden doesn't play a minute of the quarter...and the Clippers lost the game."

That...seems insane. But it actually happened.

[whomario]

This game 6 should at least give some people something to think about regarding Blatt. Of course he is a "rookie" when it comes to the NBA and dealing with superstars, but when it comes to putting everybody else in position to contribute i don´t think you can doubt his ability.

The James/Dellavedova pick and roll for example was a really neat twist to create offense with the Bulls ignoring the screener to double James, he also made the right call going small when they did.

Don´t think the Cavs can win it all without Irving recovering at least somewhat, though.

[albionmoonlight]

Why didn't Harden play the 4th? Injuries? Fouls?

[whomario]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Why didn't Harden play the 4th? Injuries? Fouls?

From what i have read he is dealing with the flu and then the Rockets were simply on a roll without him and McHale stayed with what was working rather that depend on a less-than-100% Harden.

Similarly, the Hawks finished yesterdays game with Schröder instead of Teague, who actually told the coaching staff that he thought that the Hawks would be better off that way when Bud wanted to sub him back in.

[Chief Rum]

"We just stopped playing" was more or less what Doc Rivers said.

That's such utter BS (not his statement, but that it happened). He is exactly right. I think the Clips players thought it was in the bag.

I'm completely disgusted with that team today. It's a good thing I am not a GM. I think after last night, if they don't somehow manage to come back from Houston with a win (more likely than not they won't), I would swear to pretty much trade or cut every last one of them and fire the whole coaching staff and start anew. Reason? Besides pique and anger. This team won't win a championship. They don't have the heart and mental toughness. I thought they had developed it after the Spurs series. Clearly, I was wrong.

If you have a team that can't win a championship, you have to get rid of that team.

I probably would have told the team after last night's game to get the win in Houston or don't bother getting on the team charter back to LA.

Of course, I'm a bitter, long-suffering Clips fan, so what do you expect?

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Of course, I'm a bitter, long-suffering Clips fan, so what do you expect?

we expect you to be used to disappointment and shame by now

[nol]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

He's a decent coach, but he's a retread, not the next great anything. No matter how well your uncle knows him.

My uncle might know him somewhat, but I wouldn't know for sure; certainly not as well as he'd know other coaches he'd have worked with for longer than one season.

I'm just basing my opinion on seeing what's been added to the Clippers' and Warriors' offenses and reading elsewhere that he's been one of the most desirable head coach candidates for the last couple years. Some retread hires have worked out, some have failed. The same goes for college coaches, top NBA assistants, ex-players with no coaching experience, etc.

[Chief Rum]

I actually liked Gentry when he was coaching the Clips. I'm not sure he's a guy who can take a team to the next level, though. But I definitely view him as a solid coach.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

we expect you to be used to disappointment and shame by now

Haha you would think, right?

[nol]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I actually liked Gentry when he was coaching the Clips. I'm not sure he's a guy who can take a team to the next level, though. But I definitely view him as a solid coach.

He did coach the 2010 Suns (the team with the most efficient regular season offense of the past 20 years) to the conference finals, which was as far as they had gotten under D'Antoni. As far as the levels after that, once you throw out Popovich, Jackson, Spoelstra, and Rivers there aren't too many coaches who have been to the conference finals multiple times in the past 10 or so years.

Looking at the list of the most efficient offensive seasons since 2004, Gentry was the head coach for #1 and #6 and the lead assistant for #2, #4, #7, #13, and #23. Pretty uncontroversial to say he is the main offensive guy teams are going after.

[albionmoonlight]

I don't think that the Clips need to blow themselves up. But if I were they, I'd trade Paul for the biggest pile of assets available.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I don't think that the Clips need to blow themselves up. But if I were they, I'd trade Paul for the biggest pile of assets available.

They're in a knife fight of a conference and were one game away from the conference finals. I don't think things are desperate. Get the right role players and a little lucky and you are right there.

[nol]

Four years ago, the biggest pile of assets available for him was Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman, Al-Farouq Aminu, and the 10th pick in the following year's draft. That wouldn't go very far towards fixing the issues with players #3-15.

Still don't know how the Clippers lost game 6. There were 10+ possessions in the late 3rd/early 4th where someone had a wide-open look that would've been 'the dagger' and they just didn't go in. Meanwhile, Josh Smith and Corey Brewer went 6-7 on threes.

The lack of a bench and the seeding situation (difference between Dallas/HCA in round 2 and San Antonio/no HCA was playing in the same division as the Warriors) were the twin problems that fed into one another.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Chief_Rum

If you have a team that can't win a championship, you have to get rid of that team.

I blame Rivers the most. I love Doc Rivers. He's got a proven track record, but unfortunately in both directions(I think he's now the only coach to lose a 3-1 series lead twice). When you have that kind of a lead going into the fourth quarter of an elimination game and collapse like that, I think a lot of that is coaching. The best coaches don't tolerate that on their teams. I feel terrible for the Clippers because they should have beaten Houston and were in position to do so easily.

Originally Posted by kingfc22

This 4th quarter ends any debate about Harden getting snubbed for MVP.

Not at all, for multiple reasons. I'll just point out here that one post-season quarter has no impact on an award handed out for regular-season play, among other things. Sample size, relevancy, and all that.

[Neon_Chaos]

The Clippers should take a long hard look at themselves this offseason.

They will need someone at the wing better at 3 and D than Matt Barnes, and the bench needs an overhaul and some young hungry legs.

[nol]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Not at all, for multiple reasons. I'll just point out here that one post-season quarter has no impact on an award handed out for regular-season play, among other things. Sample size, relevancy, and all that.

But one postseason quarter has you saying Doc's the first coach to blow two 3-1 series leads Either way, I wouldn't hold the first one against him when the 8 seed Magic (other 4 starters: Gordan Giricek, rookie year Drew Gooden, Andrew DeClercq, and Jacque Vaughn) took a 3-1 lead because T-Mac was playing out of his mind. I don't think he would be a better coach if the Magic just lost that series in 4-5 games.

I can honestly say that the problem wasn't in the coaching - if you edited the footage of the Clippers' 3rd and 4th quarter possessions in Game 6 to not show the shot's outcome, you'd say the Clippers were executing at a very high level. They ran the same play quite a few times in a row (starts with a double high screen for CP3) but got good looks out of it almost every single time.

In a vacuum, you could say that if players like Barnes, Redick, and Crawford had shot better than 5-21 on mostly open three-pointers in Game 6, the Rockets' comeback is over before it can even begin, but it's not really fair to expect someone like JJ Redick to play 40 minutes a game and be the primary defender on James Harden. The depth is a problem that can't be fixed in one or two moves, but it definitely shows that there's too much stuff going on for one person to be able to manage the coaching and GM stuff all at once. In fact, the only other coach-GM hybrid in the league is paying $5 million a year until 2020 for the privilege of kicking the player who just saved the Rockets' season off his team.

[Chief Rum]

It comes down to having a killer instinct. The Clippers showed they lacked this in numerous games this season, and each time it happened I would point out that this isn't a team that has the heart, guts and mental toughness to win a championship. Game 6 was just another one of those.

Absolutely heartless performance, both in Game 6 and today. This series is the kind of series to get coaches fired and get star players shipped off to somewhere else. And they have no one to blame but themselves.

I don't care how many damn wide open threes you take that miss or how cold you are, if you blow a 19 point fucking lead in 15 minutes with your whole season on the line, you don't deserve to even play in the damn league.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by nol

But one postseason quarter has you saying Doc's the first coach to blow two 3-1 series leads

Gotta ignore the entirety of Game 5 and Game 7(which I wasn't) to get to this conclusion.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

It comes down to having a killer instinct. The Clippers showed they lacked this in numerous games this season, and each time it happened I would point out that this isn't a team that has the heart, guts and mental toughness to win a championship. Game 6 was just another one of those.

I can't completely agree with this. I would have to pretend the first round against San Antonio didn't happen in order to do so. There were plenty of chances there for them to give up and many teams would have done so. They displayed a lot of those qualities in that series, and would not have won it if they didn't. I don't think you lose a killer instinct in a week or two.

[nol]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Gotta ignore the entirety of Game 5 and Game 7(which I wasn't) to get to this conclusion.

That's the entire point. Without a miraculous comeback, nobody cares about Game 5 (it would be considered a pity game the Rockets won) and there is no Game 7. Those only matter as after-the-fact justification for the most unlikely series of events this postseason aside from Randy Wittman deciding to play small ball.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I can't completely agree with this. I would have to pretend the first round against San Antonio didn't happen in order to do so. There were plenty of chances there for them to give up and many teams would have done so. They displayed a lot of those qualities in that series, and would not have won it if they didn't. I don't think you lose a killer instinct in a week or two.

I hear you. Trust me, I thought the same after that series. I thought they had finally elevated their game, got to the next level that they needed to be to become true championship contenders.

This series removes that. In fact, if anything, what it tells me is that the Spurs weren't as great as we made them out to be. A Clippers team which beat a legit Spurs team would not lose a series to a team like a solid, but not next level squad in the Rockets. This Clippers team failed to beat the Rockets. Ergo, they did not beat a legit Spurs team.

[nol]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I hear you. Trust me, I thought the same after that series. I thought they had finally elevated their game, got to the next level that they needed to be to become true championship contenders.

This series removes that. In fact, if anything, what it tells me is that the Spurs weren't as great as we made them out to be. A Clippers team which beat a legit Spurs team would not lose a series to a team like a solid, but not next level squad in the Rockets. This Clippers team failed to beat the Rockets. Ergo, they did not beat a legit Spurs team.

Why stop there? I humbly posit that there are currently zero teams in the NBA with the heart, courage, guts, spirit, passion, etc. to be champions. Sure, the rules dictate that either the Warriors, Hawks, Rockets, or Cavaliers will win the title, but that's only because one of those teams will somehow acquire all the missing mental attributes between now and June. The other 3 will remain just as gutless as the other 26 teams in the league (maybe even more so because if you have the talent to advance two rounds in the playoffs there's even less of an excuse to not win the title).

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by nol

Why stop there? I humbly posit that there are currently zero teams in the NBA with the heart, courage, guts, spirit, passion, etc. to be champions. Sure, the rules dictate that either the Warriors, Hawks, Rockets, or Cavaliers will win the title, but that's only because one of those teams will somehow acquire all the missing mental attributes between now and June. The other 3 will remain just as gutless as the other 26 teams in the league (maybe even more so because if you have the talent to advance two rounds in the playoffs there's even less of an excuse to not win the title).

Sorry if my lack of faith in the Clippers disturbs you. I have been watching this team for 30 years. It's the same shit, over and over again. The faces change, even the owner finally changed, but it's the same result, rinse and repeat.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

In fact, if anything, what it tells me is that the Spurs weren't as great as we made them out to be.

Even assuming this is true, it still doesn't change the fact that the Clippers did overcome a lot of adversity to win the series. Paul did play most of Game 7 on a bad leg. Etc. I get the frustration though, but looking at it objectively the Clippers would make a big mistake if they blow the team up.

Originally Posted by nol

That's the entire point.

Huh? You said this: "one postseason quarter has you saying Doc's the first coach to blow two 3-1 series leads " which it didn't because by definition blowing such a lead means losing three games in a row.

Originally Posted by nol

Without a miraculous comeback, nobody cares about Game 5 (it would be considered a pity game the Rockets won) and there is no Game 7

True, but irrelevant. Those games are all part of losing the series lead, not just the horrid 4th quarter of Game 6. If they win Game 7 then the collapse in Game 6 doesn't matter as much either, but all the what-ifs in the world don't change anything. I.e., Games 5-7 are all involved in the point I was making. Have the last word if you wish.

[whomario]

NBA analysts give me some diagnostics on how 3pt oriented teams are faring this playoffs...seriously, how's it goink?

— Phil Jackson (@PhilJackson11) 10. Mai 2015

Great statement from the zen master ... (or whoever is running his twitter, in any case)

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

True, but irrelevant. Those games are all part of losing the series lead, not just the horrid 4th quarter of Game 6. If they win Game 7 then the collapse in Game 6 doesn't matter as much either, but all the what-ifs in the world don't change anything. I.e., Games 5-7 are all involved in the point I was making. Have the last word if you wish.

How is it irrelevant? If they don't choke away the game in the quarter, they win the series, period. That's sort of the point of inflection points - they changed the outcome. I understand that the rest of it had to happen as well, but 'if X then Y' is pretty legitimate when you're talking about a team in position to close out another team. nol's argument requires one thing to be true - if the Clippers didn't blow the lead in the 4th quarter of game six, they win the series and game five becomes a footnote. Your argument has the benefit of being what actually happened, but we're looking for cause and effect here. The 4th quarter collapse in game six was directly the cause of them losing the series simply because if it didn't happen, they would have won the series. Did other stuff have to happen as well for them to lose the series? Absolutely. Point being made is that the collapse is an easy, simple, small data point to illustrate the why of the loss.

[nol]

Originally Posted by whomario

NBA analysts give me some diagnostics on how 3pt oriented teams are faring this playoffs...seriously, how's it goink?

— Phil Jackson (@PhilJackson11) 10. Mai 2015

Great statement from the zen master ... (or whoever is running his twitter, in any case)

Hmm, it's almost as though allowing flukish short-term events like banked-in buzzer beaters and good shooters missing a few open shots to inform your entire outlook is not a sound process

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by nol

Hmm, it's almost as though allowing flukish short-term events like banked-in buzzer beaters and good shooters missing a few open shots to inform your entire outlook is not a sound process

It's almost as if you ignore the fact that a 19 point lead in a close out existed and that that team deserves no blame for losing it.

[nol]

Haha, I've got Chief telling me I'm discounting the fact that the Clippers royally blew the lead in Game 6 and Brian telling me that I'm overemphasizing it.

There's blame, and then there's "The sky is falling! Trade everyone and fire everyone!" You are failing to realize the irony of this circular logic between "You can't succeed in the postseason unless every player has heart and grit" and "The surest way to tell whether a player has heart and grit is if they've been tested in adverse circumstances." That's pretty much what has led to stuff like filling the roster out with role players who played well in the playoffs 4-5 years ago and having the shallowest bench in the league.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by whomario

NBA analysts give me some diagnostics on how 3pt oriented teams are faring this playoffs...seriously, how's it goink?

— Phil Jackson (@PhilJackson11) 10. Mai 2015

Great statement from the zen master ... (or whoever is running his twitter, in any case)

Um, pretty good:

And then there were 4. The teams that led the NBA in playoff 3PAs/gm heading into today are the last 4 standing. pic.twitter.com/Pw6HfEGaft

— ESPN (@espn) May 17, 2015

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

It comes down to having a killer instinct. The Clippers showed they lacked this in numerous games this season, and each time it happened I would point out that this isn't a team that has the heart, guts and mental toughness to win a championship. Game 6 was just another one of those.

Absolutely heartless performance, both in Game 6 and today. This series is the kind of series to get coaches fired and get star players shipped off to somewhere else. And they have no one to blame but themselves.

I don't care how many damn wide open threes you take that miss or how cold you are, if you blow a 19 point fucking lead in 15 minutes with your whole season on the line, you don't deserve to even play in the damn league.

I still think the problem comes down to bench. Just too much to ask your top guys to be elite every single game. You need a couple bench guys who can come through for you in big spots in a series.

Now Doc is talking about giving Austin an extension which is dumb.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by nol

Haha, I've got Chief telling me I'm discounting the fact that the Clippers royally blew the lead in Game 6 and Brian telling me that I'm overemphasizing it.

There's blame, and then there's "The sky is falling! Trade everyone and fire everyone!" You are failing to realize the irony of this circular logic between "You can't succeed in the postseason unless every player has heart and grit" and "The surest way to tell whether a player has heart and grit is if they've been tested in adverse circumstances." That's pretty much what has led to stuff like filling the roster out with role players who played well in the playoffs 4-5 years ago and having the shallowest bench in the league.

I have been watching basketball for 35 years and the one thing that runs through every champion is the will to overcome when things don't go your way. Sorry, nol, you are way, way underplaying the kind of team it takes to blow a lead like that in a close out game at home. What it says about them.

I'm telling you, guaranteed, that team as it stands right now, will never win a championship. They won't come close.