Island of Misfit Toys, Take 6.3 - and an invitation to join in

[QuikSand]

On the "learning" front, I'll offer this to anyone reading. The game files are right there for anyone who might like to go back, look at the after-draft pool, check out these guys that MalcPow singled out (and his brief reasoning why) and see what can be learned from that. I'm not sure that we have any future superstars here... but picking up *six* camp creepers from one post-draft pool is pretty impressive.

[MalcPow]

On Hamilton... I just don't trust a WR with a 7 bench, or anything below an 11. I'd much rather have a 4.51/11/7.20 guy with a 50+ big play bar than a guy like Hamilton, who may very well be worth something but I've just never seen a guy like that work out in a big enough way that it's worth taking the time.

I also like what happened with Staat, a 63 big play bar makes me think we really have something there. I'd try to get him in as our third receiver at the very least, maybe even start him in the second half when the season's likely a bit of a lost cause.

[MalcPow]

As another learning note, when I, or others, talk about things like paired bars... the really interesting thing is that these paired bars are often really just indicators. A guy with a set of high paired bars will often end up looking like a guy who has similar ratings in all categories across the board, and at a slightly lower level than the initial paired bars might be at. It is a funny thing to watch, but, over time, the high pair will regress a bit and the other ratings will keep growing.

I would not be surprised if Staat is a guy like this and he ends up close to a 60/60 with fairly even ratings.

[MIJB#19]

Staat's blue bars actually looks like what I'd expect Hamilton to eventually look like based on his combine scores.

With the game saved, there's actually room to 'test' what would happen with Staat and Hamilton on the same team... hmmmm...

[QuikSand]

MIJB, I think you're seeing a whole lot more variability in the BPR bar than is conventional wisdom. Most of us are pretty well resigned to the notion that it pretty much is what it is, setting aside small scout error and the occasional random boom/bust. I don't have a sense that we see many (any?) guys -- even profound creepers -- who gain anything like 10-20 points there.

Just in the FWIW column.

[MIJB#19]

I hear ya, QS. I'm not much different, I would have cut the guy too.

[MIJB#19]

Will be interesting to see when/if the cohesion and chemistry start working for the team now.

[QuikSand]

Cutting down to 53 (well, 54 with one on IR) is very tough.

I set up a 60-20-20 base offense, with a bit more downfield passing than I might have otherwise gotten into with a simpler team. We'll give WR Staat the chance to start at FL right away, but will use a rotation at WR overall. RB Harry Gaylor will be the starter at RB, but that too will be a 3-man rotation by design, with no obvious standout.

[QuikSand]

By the way, I forgot the check at the start of the season, but our cohesion stands at 71-90-73-72... below average everywhere but along the OL.

[QuikSand]

Front Office Football 2007
2014 Summary for Buffalo Bills
   
Year                2014                                      
Record              2-14                                      
Winning Pct.        .125                                      
All-Time            12-84                                     
Winning Pct.        .125                                      
Playoffs            0-0                                       
Playoff Visits      0                                         
Bowl Wins           0                                         
Head Coach          Sam Frederick                             
Record              6-74                                      
Winning Pct.        .075                                      
Off. Coord.         J. Gooding                                
Def. Coord.         A. Newton                                 
   
Buffalo Bills           Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         23.0      31          
Rushing Yards           92.9      31          
Yards Per Carry         4.04      16          
Pass Attempts           38.8      4           
Completions             18.5      30          
Completion Pct.         47.7      32          
Passing Yards           207.1     25          
Yards Per Attempt       5.33      31          
Yards Per Catch         11.19     11          
Total Yardage Gained    285.2     30          
3rd Down Conversions    30.9      32          
Points Per Game         12.8      32          
Pass Rush Pct.          17.1      25          
Pass Defense Pct.       37.3      30          
Turnovers               33        26 (T)      
Turnover Margin         -10       23 (T)      
   
Opponents               Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         35.7      32          
Rushing Yards           153.1     32          
Yards Per Carry         4.29      24          
Pass Attempts           28.7      1 (T)       
Completions             18.9      3 (T)       
Completion Pct.         66.0      27          
Passing Yards           206.6     5           
Yards Per Attempt       7.20      27          
Yards Per Catch         10.91     18          
Total Yardage Gained    352.3     28          
3rd Down Conversions    36.1      9           
Points Per Game         24.6      30          
Pass Rush Pct.          23.3      31          
Pass Defense Pct.       71.1      32          
Turnovers               23        22 (T)      
   
Week  Team  Versus        Oppnt  
1     3     NED           16      
2     11    at GBY        26      
3     34    BAL           23      
4     20    MIA           27      
5     6     at DEN        23      
6     3     at OAK        23      
8     0     SDO           23      
9     16    at NYJ        20      
10    17    KCY           27      
11    14    at NED        23      
12    3     DET           20      
13    26    at IND        32      
14    16    at MIN        34      
15    23    at MIA        38      
16    0     CHI           31      
17    13    NYJ           7       
   
Passing                 Pos   Att   Comp  Yards Y/Att TD    Int   Rate  
3 T. Duran              QB    489   230   2474  5.06  6     17    51.9    
17 T. Wisniewski        QB    132   66    839   6.36  5     2     76.5    
**Team                  ---   621   296   3313  5.33  11    19    57.2    
$$Opp                   ---   459   303   3306  7.20  18    10    91.1    
   
Rushing                 Pos   Att   Yards Y/Att TD    Fum  
44 L. Malone            RB    176   664   3.77  2     5       
Front Office Football 2007
43 H. Gaylor            RB    150   669   4.46  2     0       
**Team                  ---   368   1487  4.04  5     31      
$$Opp                   ---   571   2450  4.29  21    22      
   
Receiving               Pos   Targ  Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop  TD  
13 G. Owens             WR    114   52    692   13.31 6.07  7     3       
18 R. Staat             WR    95    48    578   12.04 6.08  12    2       
10 B. Penxa             WR    103   43    424   9.86  4.12  12    1       
83 O. Spencer           WR    83    38    485   12.76 5.84  13    0       
41 P. Fredrickson       TE    52    26    314   12.08 6.04  1     3       
89 V. Bernard           WR    53    22    255   11.59 4.81  7     2       
81 R. Bennett           WR    40    19    292   15.37 7.30  3     0       
   
Defense                 Pos   Tack  Asst  Sack  Hurr  Ints  Defn  PDPct  
50 B. Brownlee          ILB   102   39    1.0   1     0     2     74.4    
91 B. Hanaki            ILB   92    35    0.0   1     1     4     76.2    
26 Q. Rutter            S     80    31    2.5   0     3     5     82.0    
54 R. Israelson         OLB   53    22    0.5   4     0     9     75.6    
30 A. Lynch             S     50    22    0.0   0     1     3     79.5    
92 J. Fletcher          OLB   45    19    3.5   9     0     0     76.0    
37 J. Sawyer            CB    43    15    0.0   0     1     4     76.9    
24 L. Davison           CB    41    13    0.0   0     1     3     75.7    
38 O. Biletnikoff       CB    41    10    0.0   0     1     4     74.6    
39 K. Alexander         S     40    14    0.0   0     2     4     78.9    
79 J. Godfrey           DE    39    14    3.0   5     0     0     81.3    
74 C. Grebene           DT    38    7     2.5   7     0     0     81.6    
95 D. Canady            ILB   35    7     1.5   0     0     1     66.3    
31 X. Marx              CB    34    9     0.0   0     0     2     72.8    
35 A. Hinds             OLB   34    14    0.5   4     0     0     74.5    
71 B. Castillo          DE    29    9     1.5   10    0     0     80.7    
96 K. Ballard           DT    24    9     0.5   3     0     0     80.3    
90 T. May               DE    16    13    3.0   6     0     0     82.5    

[QuikSand]

Some quick comments from the draft page:

RB Alan Meteer - huge bars for receiving, intriguing
FB Shannon Giles
TE Craig Milgate - red 2tr +2 blues
DT Antonio Brunner - 4.93 dash
NY B.J. Samuels - bar pattern

[QuikSand]

http://www.sevenshuffles.com/QuikSand/imtbuf2015.zip

[QuikSand]

Perhaps it is time to hand the reins over to QB Patrick Cobb? No complete voids in his bars... I am always awry of guys who have an absolute zero, especially in something we plan to do fairly often (like throw for 11-30 yards).

[MalcPow]

I think we need to sign some of these guys:

QB Edward Eliot - No combine guy with decent sol and pos, high-ish sense rush bar.

RB Tracy McNulty - No combine with decent brk and sp outside. Should creep some, but probably not a future star.

WR Terrell Keith - Another must have WR like Staat from last year. Solid looking big play bar, combines are where we'd hope, and pct dev is way off of 18/32 rating. Only downside is he went to Syracuse.

WR O.J. de la Garza - Decent combines, speculative guy.

WR Darryl Singleton - Some big bars, bare minimum combines, probably a mega-bust waiting to happen but shurg.

WR Butch Kemp - A lot to like with him. Some decent combines. Probably won't be a star but we'll see if he bumps in camp.

WR Willie Lans - No combine speculation pick.

RT Kevin Shepherd - No combine with good bar signature, size, and pct dev/rating discrepancy. Like him a lot.

RG Steve McKnight - Roll the dice, maybe a future 45/45 guy.

DE Bernard Fagan - Don't like him much, but it seems to be pretty tough to land DLs in this format. Give him a camp.

DT Jamal Young, DE Eric Verba, Leroy Broestl - Ditto above.

SLB Brenden Coggins - Looks to be worth a camp. I may just be all googly over his pos score.

I'm not sure what we do on the QB front, looks like Cobb is creeping a little. Be interested to see what happens in camp.

[QuikSand]

Okay, unlikely to get to this tonight...camp likely in the morning.

[QuikSand]

Sorry if formatting is fouled up here, no CT handy:

Player	#	Pos   Start	Exp	Current Estimate	Future Estimate C	Current Estimate	Future	dCE	dFE
Duran, Tommie	3	QB	5	27	29	29	29	2	0
Wisniewski, Tracy	17	QB	6	24	30	27	30	3	0
Davison, Corey	11	QB	2	12	46	15	46	3	0
Cobb, Patrick	12	QB	2	12	27	14	27	2	0
Mullens, Clay	4	QB	1	9	35	13	35	4	0
Eliot, Edward	8	QB	1	10	44	13	40	3	-4
Gaylor, Harry	43	RB	3	35	39	38	40	3	1
Malone, Levon	44	RB	3	30	35	31	31	1	-4
Meteer, Alan	49	RB	1	28	64	29	55	1	-9
Pascal, Trevor	23	RB	1	26	44	26	41	0	-3
Jamison, Charlie	27	RB	2	25	41	24	38	-1	-3
Dreisbach, Chris	33	RB	1	20	28	21	28	1	0
McNulty, Tracy	34	RB	1	18	20	20	22	2	2
Brigham, Lorenzo	46	FB	6	37	37	37	37	0	0
Prado, Carl	36	FB	1	27	46	33	50	6	4
Benton, Jumbo	28	FB	1	23	44	26	41	3	-3
Small, Russell	40	FB	6	34	34	25	25	-9	-9
Giles, Shannon	48	FB	1	14	49	18	46	4	-3
Manning, Vernon	45	FB	6	12	14	10	11	-2	-3
Fredrickson, Peter	41	TE	5	60	60	60	60	0	0
Rackley, D.J.	85	TE	5	35	35	35	35	0	0
Milgate, Craig	80	TE	1	25	49	28	50	3	1
Winslett, Rex	86	TE	1	21	57	25	52	4	-5
Owens, Gus	13	FL	5	31	31	31	31	0	0
Staat, Raymond	18	FL	2	23	39	25	39	2	0
Singleton, Darryl	88	FL	1	20	46	22	43	2	-3
Keith, Terrell	84	FL	1	18	32	21	32	3	0
Lans, Willie	1	FL	1	17	29	18	28	1	-1
de la Garza, O.J.	7	FL	1	10	26	12	25	2	-1
Penxa, Bucky	10	SE	4	34	38	37	38	3	0
Spencer, O.J.	83	SE	6	33	33	33	33	0	0
Bernard, Vince	89	SE	2	17	25	19	25	2	0
Kemp, Butch	2	SE	1	14	30	16	28	2	-2
Bennett, Ralph	81	SE	2	14	20	15	20	1	0
Lee, Edward	82	SE	6	12	16	6	6	-6	-10
Bernstein, Marcus	59	C	3	32	42	38	43	6	1
Musum, Ryan	67	LG	6	36	36	36	36	0	0
McLain, Rod	60	RG	6	37	37	37	37	0	0
Greco, Paul	65	RG	2	17	42	20	42	3	0
McKnight, Steve	61	RG	1	16	33	17	34	1	1
Beyer, Alex	76	LT	6	29	29	29	29	0	0
Price, Everett	78	LT	2	19	33	21	33	2	0
Donovan, Tommie	62	RT	3	43	43	41	41	-2	-2
Klinger, Stan	68	RT	3	27	46	30	45	3	-1
Shepherd, Kevin	64	RT	1	18	47	19	44	1	-3
Springer, Curtis	14	P	5	44	44	49	49	5	5
Monroe, Marshall	19	K	2	39	58	39	58	0	0
Fortmann, Nate	73	LDE	1	23	30	24	28	1	-2
Castillo, Benjamin	71	LDE	3	21	23	21	23	0	0
Broestl, Leroy	97	LDE	1	12	26	13	25	1	-1
Godfrey, Justin	79	RDE	6	30	30	31	31	1	1
May, Ted	90	RDE	3	26	35	30	35	4	0
Ross, Harold	75	RDE	1	19	25	20	24	1	-1
Fagan, Bernard	70	RDE	1	12	31	14	31	2	0
Verba, Eric	72	RDE	1	11	46	11	38	0	-8
Ballard, Kendall	96	LDT	6	29	29	29	29	0	0
Young, Jamal	94	RDT	1	14	19	15	19	1	0
Grebene, Clarence	74	NT	5	29	29	29	29	0	0
Samuels, B.J.	93	NT	1	23	34	23	33	0	-1
Brownlee, Ben	50	SILB	5	36	36	36	36	0	0
Hanaki, Bert	91	WILB	6	34	34	35	35	1	1
Canady, Daniel	95	WILB	2	16	32	20	33	4	1
Israelson, Ray	54	SLB	6	35	35	36	36	1	1
Hinds, Alex	35	SLB	3	21	30	23	23	2	-7
Coggins, Brenden	51	SLB	1	21	39	22	36	1	-3
Bordelon, Korey	52	SLB	1	18	25	20	26	2	1
Fletcher, Jamie	92	WLB	4	33	36	35	35	2	-1
Linquist, Todd	55	WLB	6	25	25	17	17	-8	-8
Marx, Xavier	31	LCB	5	34	34	35	35	1	1
Biletnikoff, O.J.	38	LCB	2	27	40	30	40	3	0
Davison, Leslie	24	LCB	3	23	29	24	24	1	-5
Sawyer, Juan	37	RCB	4	27	27	27	27	0	0
Ethridge, Leon	22	RCB	5	28	28	26	26	-2	-2
Comella, Dwayne	25	RCB	1	8	14	9	16	1	2
Rutter, Quentin	26	SS	6	41	41	42	42	1	1
Alexander, Kim	39	SS	5	32	32	33	33	1	1
Robinson, Otis	42	SS	6	24	24	18	18	-6	-6
Lynch, Antonio	30	FS	5	42	42	42	42	0	0
Kohn, Jermaine	29	FS	3	18	27	19	27	1	0

[QuikSand]

Okay, cuts down to 55 made, preseason run, and now I'm looking at the final cuts.

I am thinking QB Wisniewski is one of them. I have 4 on hand now, with Duran as the incumbent starter (and a 3x affinity guy), Cobb looking like Plan B for this year, and Davison a not-so-bad 3x affinity guy for our 3rd spot (potential long term keep there at minsal forever).

Wisniewski has Ldr 46, Int 34, Pers 12... I forget what combo of those leads to mentorship, but I don't see that coming soon, which would be a strong reason to keep him around. Wiz is also unhappy, meaning we'd have to give him some starts this year to re-sign him, probably.

I'm thinking he goes here.

[QuikSand]

Okay, into the season, and seeing something really weird. The depth chart at RB looks like this:

RB1: Gaylor, 80%, 0 End
RB2: Meteer, 65/79
3&S: Gaylor
PSD: Malone, 9
PS+: Gaylor

Through three games, where we have been pretty competitive in each, by the way, here's the carry total:

Gaylor 5
Meteer 60
QBs total 6
Malone 0
FBs total 0

*shurg*

Haven't put a single RB with endurance on this team to date... but I don't recall ever seeing anything like this.

[QuikSand]

Oh, hey... looks like I have Rb2 slotted as the starter in pretty much every formation. So, there's that, I guess.

[QuikSand]

gadget AI-busting gameplan FTL

[albionmoonlight]

weird. Does Gaylor nominally start every game? Can we tell?

[albionmoonlight]

dola: never mind, then.

[MalcPow]

Hehehe

[QuikSand]

Moving on... 303 now, only one blowout loss, Duran is (6/5, 7.12) at QB for a rating of 76. Clearly the team's best start yet.

[QuikSand]

So...uhhh...probably good that I picked 3-3 to post that mid-season snippet. Things didn't exactly carry on from there as we may have hoped.

Front Office Football 2007
2015 Summary for Buffalo Bills
   
Year                2015                                      
Record              4-12                                      
Winning Pct.        .250                                      
All-Time            16-96                                     
Winning Pct.        .142                                      
Playoffs            0-0                                       
Playoff Visits      0                                         
Bowl Wins           0                                         
Head Coach          Sam Frederick                             
Record              10-86                                     
Winning Pct.        .104                                      
Off. Coord.         K. Clark                                  
Def. Coord.         A. Newton                                 
   
Buffalo Bills           Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         23.1      31          
Rushing Yards           87.2      31          
Yards Per Carry         3.78      32          
Pass Attempts           34.4      9           
Completions             17.0      32          
Completion Pct.         49.5      32          
Passing Yards           203.3     30          
Yards Per Attempt       5.91      31          
Yards Per Catch         11.96     5           
Total Yardage Gained    278.1     32          
3rd Down Conversions    34.1      30          
Points Per Game         14.0      31          
Pass Rush Pct.          16.9      22 (T)      
Pass Defense Pct.       41.6      23          
Turnovers               41        32          
Turnover Margin         -22       32          
   
Opponents               Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         35.1      32          
Rushing Yards           145.3     31          
Yards Per Carry         4.14      13          
Pass Attempts           27.6      2           
Completions             18.6      3           
Completion Pct.         67.6      29          
Passing Yards           213.6     6           
Yards Per Attempt       7.75      29          
Yards Per Catch         11.47     24          
Total Yardage Gained    345.0     23          
3rd Down Conversions    42.3      25 (T)      
Points Per Game         22.8      25          
Pass Rush Pct.          21.5      27          
Pass Defense Pct.       88.0      32          
Turnovers               19        27          
   
Week  Team  Versus        Oppnt  
1     20    at MIA        26      
2     24    PHI           17      
3     17    at BAL        20      
4     27    at TEN        14      
5     14    at IND        44      
6     20    HOU           16      
7     3     MIA           14      
9     21    JAX           28      
10    10    at NYJ        30      
11    16    NED           13      
12    14    at DAL        24      
13    14    DEN           17      
14    3     WAS           30      
15    9     NYJ           13      
16    3     at NYK        30      
17    9     at NED        28      
   
Passing                 Pos   Att   Comp  Yards Y/Att TD    Int   Rate  
3 T. Duran              QB    403   203   2429  6.03  12    20    58.4    
12 P. Cobb              QB    112   46    598   5.34  1     10    24.3    
11 C. Davison           QB    35    23    226   6.46  1     1     81.3    
**Team                  ---   550   272   3253  5.91  14    31    52.9    
$$Opp                   ---   441   298   3417  7.75  21    12    95.2    
   
Rushing                 Pos   Att   Yards Y/Att TD    Fum   
9 A. Meteer             RB    170   727   4.28  6     2       
43 H. Gaylor            RB    138   506   3.67  1     2       
**Team                  ---   369   1395  3.78  7     19      
$$Opp                   ---   561   2324  4.14  17    23      
   
Receiving               Pos   Targ  Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop  TD  
18 R. Staat             WR    119   53    776   14.64 6.52  7     4       
10 B. Penxa             WR    114   52    721   13.87 6.32  11    2       
83 O. Spencer           WR    99    47    511   10.87 5.16  4     1       
84 T. Keith             WR    61    32    356   11.13 5.84  4     4       
13 G. Owens             WR    37    18    284   15.78 7.68  2     1       
41 P. Fredrickson       TE    38    17    194   11.41 5.11  3     1       
43 H. Gaylor            RB    22    16    136   8.50  6.18  0     0       
   
Defense                 Pos   Tack  Asst  Sack  Hurr  Ints  Defn  PDPct  
50 B. Brownlee          ILB   101   28    0.0   1     0     3     70.9    
26 Q. Rutter            S     80    36    3.0   0     2     3     80.5    
91 B. Hanaki            ILB   76    31    1.0   0     0     0     72.6    
92 J. Fletcher          OLB   64    24    12.5  7     0     1     80.5    
30 A. Lynch             S     60    21    0.0   0     1     3     72.0    
52 K. Bordelon          OLB   53    18    1.5   0     2     5     77.6    
31 X. Marx              CB    46    11    1.0   0     1     11    81.5    
39 K. Alexander         S     43    19    0.0   1     1     1     74.2    
37 J. Sawyer            CB    40    10    0.0   0     1     3     75.4    
79 J. Godfrey           DE    37    12    1.0   4     0     0     79.1    
24 L. Davison           CB    33    11    0.0   0     2     4     76.7    
95 D. Canady            ILB   32    15    0.0   4     1     1     83.0    
74 C. Grebene           DT    31    12    0.5   3     0     0     82.5    
96 K. Ballard           DT    28    9     6.5   3     0     0     82.0    
38 O. Biletnikoff       CB    28    15    0.0   0     1     7     84.0    
90 T. May               DE    27    10    1.5   5     0     0     80.7    
54 R. Israelson         OLB   25    8     2.0   2     0     2     74.0    
71 B. Castillo          DE    22    10    1.5   7     0     0     80.7     

[albionmoonlight]

24.3 qb rating? Damn. Way to take the initiative there, Cobb.

[QuikSand]

When the season was lost, I thought it wise to give Cobb a few starts (last 3 games, all single-digit scores for us). His bars continue to progress, so I think there's still hope there... but it's hard to tell quite where we are.

[QuikSand]

From the draft screen:

WR Marco Torrence - wow, 4.43 dash/30 sole/6.90 agil - might be a WR who can actually, you know, get open

CB Anton George - 4.46 and a 45 Pos

SLB Lionel Burbage - 4.53 dash and good lower bars

MLB Duane McGillicuddy - 43 test, some big bars

QB Lawrence Dunn - 13 str, 3 blues

QB Max Morris - 36/12

TE Gino Knievel - 3 blues, 1 awesome name

C Andy Kelly, blue dash, max run bar

[QuikSand]

Latest offseason's files: http://www.sevenshuffles.com/QuikSand/imtbuf2016.zip

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

might be a WR who can actually, you know, get open and make a big play

Fixed?

[QuikSand]

Well, for whatever reason, most of our WR lineup is guys with a low RR rating. We have several with pretty respectable bars in either BPR or GD (or both), but it's the "getting open" thing (however you translate that to FOFspeak) that I sense we are missing. With those combines, if Torrence can creep and play, then between him and Staat maybe we have a serious starting twosome, finally, with the rest of the lot more or less playing as collective wingmen.

[MIJB#19]

True, having one WR with decent RR (and some play making skills) does help. I didn't realize they were all very low on RR (although, I should have known with the type of talent around after the draft.

[QuikSand]

Top Ten Most Likely Busts:

Name                          Team             Pos	Change
Brigham, Lorenzo              Buffalo          FB	-10
Marx, Xavier                  Buffalo          LCB	-10
Covington, Donny              Buffalo          TE	-9
Spencer, O.J.                 Buffalo          SE	-8
Small, Russell                Buffalo          FB	-8
Fredrickson, Peter            Buffalo          TE	-7
Tanner, George                Buffalo          SILB	-7
Biletnikoff, O.J.             Buffalo          LCB	-6
McGillicuddy, Duane           Buffalo          MLB	-6
Ethridge, Leon                Buffalo          RCB	-6


Top Ten Most Likely Breakouts:

Name                          Team             Pos	Change
Richmond, Happenstance        Buffalo          RB	5
Gaylor, Harry                 Buffalo          RB	2
Bernstein, Marcus             Buffalo          C	2
May, Ted                      Buffalo          RDE	2
Rackley, D.J.                 Buffalo          TE	1
Meteer, Alan                  Buffalo          RB	1
Knievel, Gino                 Buffalo          TE	1
Alexander, Kim                Buffalo          SS	1
Dunn, Lawrence                Buffalo          QB	1
Broestl, Leroy                Buffalo          LDE	1

[QuikSand]

Of the meaningful movers here:

RB Richmond was highly developed and had an out-of-the-box name, seemed worth a look... bars are still unimpressive, but he now gets some time in the rotation, I think, wita +5 camp

Tough hits at CB, where both Marx and Biletnikoff were getting a lot of playing time.

WR Spencer might have faded his way right out of playing time in a crowded WR group.

No move from WR Torrence... disappointing. I really don't understand that at all. How can he have been so great at the combines? The fact that his bars were so low, and every single team passed on him round after round suggests it was (duh) the combine that was the anomaly, but I really don't get it with guys like this. I might have drafted that guy in round two in a MP draft, or might have been neaten to the punch to do so, even.

[QuikSand]

Buffalo Bills Player Report

(IMTBUF2016c - IMTBUF2016d)

Name	Pos	Team	IMTBUF2016c Current	IMTBUF2016c Future	IMTBUF2016d Current	IMTBUF2016d Future	Overall Current Change	Overall Future Change
Cobb, Patrick	QB	Buffalo	17	29	19 (2)	30 (1)	2	1
Davison, Corey	QB	Buffalo	16	46	20 (4)	47 (1)	4	1
Dunn, Lawrence	QB	Buffalo	5	24	7 (2)	25 (1)	2	1
Duran, Tommie	QB	Buffalo	30	30	30 (0)	30 (0)	0	0
Morris, Max	QB	Buffalo	4	26	6 (2)	27 (1)	2	1
Gaylor, Harry	RB	Buffalo	41	41	43 (2)	43 (2)	2	2
McNulty, Tracy	RB	Buffalo	22	24	23 (1)	24 (0)	1	0
Meteer, Alan	RB	Buffalo	34	49	37 (3)	50 (1)	3	1
Richmond, Happenstance	RB	Buffalo	20	22	23 (3)	27 (5)	3	5
Brigham, Lorenzo	FB	Buffalo	35	35	25 (-10)	25 (-10)	-10	-10
Manning, Vernon	FB	Buffalo	10	11	9 (-1)	9 (-2)	-1	-2
Prado, Carl	FB	Buffalo	38	46	45 (7)	45 (-1)	7	-1
Small, Russell	FB	Buffalo	25	25	17 (-8)	17 (-8)	-8	-8
Covington, Donny	TE	Buffalo	21	56	23 (2)	47 (-9)	2	-9
Fredrickson, Peter	TE	Buffalo	62	62	55 (-7)	55 (-7)	-7	-7
Knievel, Gino	TE	Buffalo	20	34	22 (2)	35 (1)	2	1
Milgate, Craig	TE	Buffalo	31	50	33 (2)	50 (0)	2	0
Rackley, D.J.	TE	Buffalo	34	34	35 (1)	35 (1)	1	1
Keith, Terrell	FL	Buffalo	23	31	25 (2)	32 (1)	2	1
Luethje, Rex	FL	Buffalo	21	48	23 (2)	43 (-5)	2	-5
Owens, Gus	FL	Buffalo	30	30	31 (1)	31 (1)	1	1
Staat, Raymond	FL	Buffalo	34	41	37 (3)	37 (-4)	3	-4
Bennett, Ralph	SE	Buffalo	17	21	18 (1)	22 (1)	1	1
Lee, Edward	SE	Buffalo	6	6	3 (-3)	3 (-3)	-3	-3
Penxa, Bucky	SE	Buffalo	39	39	39 (0)	39 (0)	0	0
Spencer, O.J.	SE	Buffalo	33	33	25 (-8)	25 (-8)	-8	-8
Torrence, Marco	SE	Buffalo	12	24	15 (3)	25 (1)	3	1
Bernstein, Marcus	C	Buffalo	43	43	45 (2)	45 (2)	2	2
Kelly, Andy	C	Buffalo	25	47	29 (4)	44 (-3)	4	-3
Musum, Ryan	LG	Buffalo	36	36	36 (0)	36 (0)	0	0
McKnight, Steve	RG	Buffalo	20	35	22 (2)	34 (-1)	2	-1
McLain, Rod	RG	Buffalo	37	37	37 (0)	37 (0)	0	0
Beyer, Alex	LT	Buffalo	30	30	29 (-1)	29 (-1)	-1	-1
Price, Everett	LT	Buffalo	27	35	29 (2)	35 (0)	2	0
Donovan, Tommie	RT	Buffalo	41	41	39 (-2)	39 (-2)	-2	-2
Klinger, Stan	RT	Buffalo	30	45	34 (4)	45 (0)	4	0
Monroe, Marshall	K	Buffalo	38	38	39 (1)	39 (1)	1	1
Springer, Curtis	P	Buffalo	47	47	48 (1)	48 (1)	1	1
Broestl, Leroy	LDE	Buffalo	13	24	14 (1)	25 (1)	1	1
Castillo, Benjamin	LDE	Buffalo	22	22	21 (-1)	21 (-1)	-1	-1
Ballard, Kendall	LDT	Buffalo	29	29	28 (-1)	28 (-1)	-1	-1
Grebene, Clarence	NT	Buffalo	29	29	29 (0)	29 (0)	0	0
Godfrey, Justin	RDE	Buffalo	30	30	30 (0)	30 (0)	0	0
May, Ted	RDE	Buffalo	34	35	37 (3)	37 (2)	3	2
Morton, Wes	RDE	Buffalo	23	41	26 (3)	38 (-3)	3	-3
Bordelon, Korey	SLB	Buffalo	24	26	26 (2)	26 (0)	2	0
Burbage, Lionel	SLB	Buffalo	19	38	21 (2)	34 (-4)	2	-4
Coggins, Brenden	SLB	Buffalo	22	34	24 (2)	34 (0)	2	0
Israelson, Ray	SLB	Buffalo	37	37	36 (-1)	36 (-1)	-1	-1
Moseley, Ted	SLB	Buffalo	21	45	23 (2)	40 (-5)	2	-5
Brownlee, Ben	SILB	Buffalo	36	36	35 (-1)	35 (-1)	-1	-1
Tanner, George	SILB	Buffalo	17	56	20 (3)	49 (-7)	3	-7
Canady, Daniel	WILB	Buffalo	23	33	27 (4)	34 (1)	4	1
Hanaki, Bert	WILB	Buffalo	33	33	33 (0)	33 (0)	0	0
McGillicuddy, Duane	MLB	Buffalo	14	44	16 (2)	38 (-6)	2	-6
Ellison, Richie	WLB	Buffalo	20	37	24 (4)	35 (-2)	4	-2
Fletcher, Jamie	WLB	Buffalo	34	34	33 (-1)	33 (-1)	-1	-1
Linquist, Todd	WLB	Buffalo	16	16	16 (0)	16 (0)	0	0
Biletnikoff, O.J.	LCB	Buffalo	32	40	34 (2)	34 (-6)	2	-6
Davison, Leslie	LCB	Buffalo	24	24	25 (1)	25 (1)	1	1
Marx, Xavier	LCB	Buffalo	33	33	23 (-10)	23 (-10)	-10	-10
Ethridge, Leon	RCB	Buffalo	25	25	19 (-6)	19 (-6)	-6	-6
Sawyer, Juan	RCB	Buffalo	27	27	27 (0)	27 (0)	0	0
Alexander, Kim	SS	Buffalo	32	32	33 (1)	33 (1)	1	1
Robinson, Otis	SS	Buffalo	18	18	15 (-3)	15 (-3)	-3	-3
Rutter, Quentin	SS	Buffalo	41	41	41 (0)	41 (0)	0	0
Lynch, Antonio	FS	Buffalo	42	42	42 (0)	42 (0)	0	0

[QuikSand]

Pasted from another thread for reference... I intend to start documenting this team's cohesion and chemistry at the start of each season from here out, and to mark cohesion I'll be using this calculation.

AffIndex = This custom affinity index weights the various affinity factors from each team – each affinity or conflict is included, and weighted by strength. It is designed so that a completely random effect would yield a zero – either absolutely no chemistry effects, or else two affinities for every conflict. The actual weightings I used are as follows: Mild Affinity +2, Affinity +3, Strong Affinity +4, Exceptional Affinity +5, and QB Affinity +2 --with corresponding conflicts each twice as strong in the negative. I don’t have a lot to go on that this is “correct” but it certainly captures the overall picture for that team’s roster in a single number reasonably well.

[QuikSand]

Quick notes on cutdowns:

-LB Burbage dropped in camp, but has two good bars that make me think he is likely the future for us at WLB... but this year he will spend on IR with an injury. Next season, though, he may step right into that starting job (where I think Fletcher's 12 sacks last year were a fluke).

-RB is one of the last spots to resolve, and I decide to dump former starter Gaylor. Only about 4 ypc in three years, I think we know what we have in him - no affinity, and no variable skills. We will stick with big-barred and versatile Meteer, and the two young creepers in McNulty and Richmond, with rookie Richmond slotting in as the starter right away, I think, McNulty as the #2, and Meteer as the passing down back (and primary PR/KR).

-My thinking is that we will start off with Duran in at QB, and then at the halfway point we will reassess. If the team is still in its doldrums, I plan to slot in Cobb for the latter half of the season, and see what each guy gives us.

-I think I'm done with Castillo as the LDE starter... we'll reinstate run-stopper Godfery at the RDE slot, and move pass rusher Ted May over to LDE to start, where he ought to at least be able to post a handful of sacks (Castillo still is zero in Run D and PR Tech, while May is rated 17,55/56... Castillo has posted 5.5 sacks in 3 seasons as a starter, May posted 7 in the same time as a reserve)

And, after we pare down to 53, here's the intangibles snapshot on opening day:

Roster rating: 1 (32nd, second to last is 25)
Cohesion ratings: 64 (30th), 100/96, 67 (t25th), 88 (7th)
AffIndex: 89

[QuikSand]

Okay, at the halfway point:

Front Office Football 2007
2016 Summary for Buffalo Bills
   
Year                2016                                      
Record              2-6                                       
Winning Pct.        .250                                      
All-Time            18-102                                    
Winning Pct.        .150                                      
Playoffs            0-0                                       
Playoff Visits      0                                         
Bowl Wins           0                                         
Head Coach          Sam Frederick                             
Record              12-92                                     
Winning Pct.        .115                                      
Off. Coord.         K. Clark                                  
Def. Coord.         A. Newton                                 
   
Buffalo Bills           Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         21.1      31          
Rushing Yards           73.0      32          
Yards Per Carry         3.46      30          
Pass Attempts           35.4      8           
Completions             18.3      24 (T)      
Completion Pct.         51.6      32          
Passing Yards           209.5     20          
Yards Per Attempt       5.92      26          
Yards Per Catch         11.48     9           
Total Yardage Gained    263.4     30          
3rd Down Conversions    30.5      29          
Points Per Game         15.5      28          
Pass Rush Pct.          19.1      18 (T)      
Pass Defense Pct.       40.8      24          
Turnovers               17        31          
Turnover Margin         -7        29          
   
Opponents               Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         32.6      28          
Rushing Yards           123.8     24          
Yards Per Carry         3.79      8           
Pass Attempts           30.4      8           
Completions             19.6      12          
Completion Pct.         64.6      24          
Passing Yards           193.5     6           
Yards Per Attempt       6.37      15          
Yards Per Catch         9.86      5           
Total Yardage Gained    304.1     14          
3rd Down Conversions    40.2      18          
Points Per Game         22.3      25          
Pass Rush Pct.          21.8      24          
Pass Defense Pct.       78.0      32          
Turnovers               10        17 (T)      
   
Week  Team  Versus        Oppnt  
1     20    at NYJ        24      
2     7     at ARI        16      
3     13    DEN           30      
4     0     CLE           27      
5     24    at MIA        21      
6     27    at PIT        30      
7     14    at BAL        24      
8     19    NYJ           6       
9           CIN                   
10          at NED                
12          STL                   
13          at IND                
14          at SEA                
15          NED                   
16          SFO                   
17          MIA                   
   
Passing                 Pos   Att   Comp  Yards Y/Att TD    Int   Rate  
3 T. Duran              QB    250   132   1537  6.15  9     9     68.7    
12 P. Cobb              QB    33    14    139   4.21  1     2     39.8    
**Team                  ---   283   146   1676  5.92  10    11    65.3    
$$Opp                   ---   243   157   1548  6.37  10    4     89.3    
   
Rushing                 Pos   Att   Yards Y/Att TD    Fum  
28 H. Richmond          RB    81    278   3.43  0     4       
Front Office Football 2007
34 T. McNulty           RB    42    129   3.07  1     1       
9 A. Meteer             RB    32    109   3.41  0     5       
**Team                  ---   169   584   3.46  1     15      
$$Opp                   ---   261   990   3.79  7     12      
   
Receiving               Pos   Targ  Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop  TD  
18 R. Staat             WR    64    32    454   14.19 7.09  4     2       
10 B. Penxa             WR    63    30    326   10.87 5.17  8     3       
88 M. Torrence          WR    49    23    290   12.61 5.92  1     1       
84 T. Keith             WR    38    15    232   15.47 6.11  7     2       
41 P. Fredrickson       TE    21    13    79    6.08  3.76  0     1       
28 H. Richmond          RB    11    9     112   12.44 10.18 2     0       
   
Defense                 Pos   Tack  Asst  Sack  Hurr  Ints  Defn  PDPct  
50 B. Brownlee          ILB   58    18    3.0   0     1     3     73.2    
54 R. Israelson         OLB   38    11    2.0   1     1     2     72.1    
26 Q. Rutter            S     37    11    0.0   0     0     4     77.4    
91 B. Hanaki            ILB   33    7     0.0   0     0     0     67.4    
30 A. Lynch             S     25    11    0.0   0     0     4     81.3    
24 L. Davison           CB    22    1     0.0   0     0     0     74.8    
92 J. Fletcher          OLB   19    8     4.0   7     0     1     78.5    
37 J. Sawyer            CB    19    5     0.0   0     1     3     77.9    
79 J. Godfrey           DE    17    6     0.0   5     0     0     80.2    
57 G. Tanner            ILB   16    5     1.0   1     0     0     69.9    
95 D. Canady            ILB   15    8     0.0   0     0     0     71.2    
38 O. Biletnikoff       CB    15    5     0.0   0     1     3     83.2    
96 K. Ballard           DT    13    5     1.0   2     0     0     81.4    
74 C. Grebene           DT    13    6     2.0   1     0     0     81.7    
39 K. Alexander         S     13    9     0.0   0     0     0     77.5    
71 B. Castillo          DE    11    3     2.5   3     0     0     79.8    
70 W. Morton            DE    11    7     1.5   0     0     0     80.7    
90 T. May               DE    10    6     0.5   2     0     0     81.8    
31 X. Marx              CB    9     6     0.0   0     0     1     72.9    
22 L. Ethridge          CB    8     6     0.0   0     0     3     84.0    
52 K. Bordelon          OLB   8     4     0.0   0     0     1     76.5    

[QuikSand]

And the full season wrap-up doesn't really change the bottom line:

Front Office Football 2007
2016 Summary for Buffalo Bills
   
Year                2016                                      
Record              4-12                                      
Winning Pct.        .250                                      
All-Time            20-108                                    
Winning Pct.        .156                                      
Playoffs            0-0                                       
Playoff Visits      0                                         
Bowl Wins           0                                         
Head Coach          Sam Frederick                             
Record              14-98                                     
Winning Pct.        .125                                      
Off. Coord.         K. Clark                                  
Def. Coord.         A. Newton                                 
   
Buffalo Bills           Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         22.7      32          
Rushing Yards           83.5      31          
Yards Per Carry         3.68      28          
Pass Attempts           34.0      10 (T)      
Completions             17.6      31          
Completion Pct.         51.8      32          
Passing Yards           191.3     27          
Yards Per Attempt       5.63      27          
Yards Per Catch         10.85     15 (T)      
Total Yardage Gained    255.7     30 (T)      
3rd Down Conversions    32.4      29          
Points Per Game         13.0      30          
Pass Rush Pct.          18.4      21          
Pass Defense Pct.       40.0      30          
Turnovers               38        32          
Turnover Margin         -14       30          
   
Opponents               Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         34.1      30          
Rushing Yards           135.3     31          
Yards Per Carry         3.97      15          
Pass Attempts           27.6      4           
Completions             18.4      7           
Completion Pct.         66.5      31          
Passing Yards           191.7     5           
Yards Per Attempt       6.94      25          
Yards Per Catch         10.43     11          
Total Yardage Gained    313.1     18          
3rd Down Conversions    42.2      28          
Points Per Game         21.4      26 (T)      
Pass Rush Pct.          22.6      29          
Pass Defense Pct.       79.3      32          
Turnovers               24        16 (T)      
   
Week  Team  Versus        Oppnt  
1     20    at NYJ        24      
2     7     at ARI        16      
3     13    DEN           30      
4     0     CLE           27      
5     24    at MIA        21      
6     27    at PIT        30      
7     14    at BAL        24      
8     19    NYJ           6       
9     0     CIN           20      
10    3     at NED        33      
12    13    STL           16      
13    13    at IND        9       
14    3     at SEA        23      
15    16    NED           24      
16    3     SFO           20      
17    33    MIA           20      
   
Passing                 Pos   Att   Comp  Yards Y/Att TD    Int   Rate  
3 T. Duran              QB    282   151   1675  5.94  9     10    67.3    
12 P. Cobb              QB    262   131   1385  5.29  5     17    45.1    
**Team                  ---   544   282   3060  5.63  14    27    56.6    
$$Opp                   ---   442   294   3067  6.94  18    9     91.5    
   
Rushing                 Pos   Att   Yards Y/Att TD    Fum  
28 H. Richmond          RB    176   603   3.43  1     6       
Front Office Football 2007
34 T. McNulty           RB    87    343   3.94  1     1       
9 A. Meteer             RB    56    185   3.30  0     6       
**Team                  ---   363   1336  3.68  2     26      
$$Opp                   ---   545   2164  3.97  14    26      
   
Receiving               Pos   Targ  Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop  TD  
10 B. Penxa             WR    121   65    686   10.55 5.67  10    4       
18 R. Staat             WR    127   58    747   12.88 5.88  9     2       
88 M. Torrence          WR    75    37    505   13.65 6.73  5     2       
84 T. Keith             WR    81    35    400   11.43 4.94  11    3       
41 P. Fredrickson       TE    39    27    183   6.78  4.69  0     1       
   
Defense                 Pos   Tack  Asst  Sack  Hurr  Ints  Defn  PDPct  
50 B. Brownlee          ILB   120   29    3.0   1     1     5     71.0    
54 R. Israelson         OLB   71    26    3.0   2     3     2     74.7    
91 B. Hanaki            ILB   66    20    1.0   1     0     1     71.7    
26 Q. Rutter            S     55    15    0.0   0     0     6     79.4    
30 A. Lynch             S     49    18    0.0   0     0     7     80.8    
92 J. Fletcher          OLB   47    22    9.5   9     0     2     80.2    
39 K. Alexander         S     38    19    0.0   0     1     4     80.1    
24 L. Davison           CB    35    8     0.0   0     1     0     76.6    
37 J. Sawyer            CB    34    13    0.0   0     2     4     77.6    
95 D. Canady            ILB   34    16    0.5   0     0     0     68.7    
38 O. Biletnikoff       CB    33    11    0.0   0     1     5     78.8    
57 G. Tanner            ILB   30    15    1.0   1     0     0     71.0    
96 K. Ballard           DT    28    11    2.0   3     0     0     81.4    
70 W. Morton            DE    28    14    4.0   3     0     3     84.0    
90 T. May               DE    27    9     6.0   8     0     0     81.6    
74 C. Grebene           DT    25    12    3.0   3     0     0     82.1    
22 L. Ethridge          CB    24    10    0.0   0     0     3     75.7    
71 B. Castillo          DE    21    5     2.5   3     0     0     80.4    
31 X. Marx              CB    20    11    0.0   0     0     1     74.3    
79 J. Godfrey           DE    18    8     0.0   5     0     0     79.6    
51 B. Coggins           OLB   18    7     1.5   2     0     0     75.6    

[QuikSand]

Quik Thoughts:

-Team is obviously not actually good... but there are things worth watching at least. The defense is up to roughly average in terms of yards allowed per play (both ways), and that's a good sign. We're still getting killed by the turnovers, especially with Cobb at QB.

-Fletcher had another superficially strong season as a pass rusher -- I know the 3-4 Will tends to get phony numbers, but he's at least credible there - with a 6.6 PR%. LDE May posted a respectable 5.1, but overall our pass rush remains a soft spot, to no surprise.

-We got precious little from the RB position, it seems. From the FO data in-game, we posted a 4.05 ALY and 3.55 ypc by RB -- suggesting that the main difference between our outcome and the league average was due to the RB position, rather than the blocking infrastructure. I guess that's encouraging, right? Fixable with one or two new guys, perhaps...? Or maybe Happenstance can get it together after all? or Meteer?

[QuikSand]

In the offseason, CB Xavier Marx retires. Big drop in ratings last year in camp, then he became just a rotation player, and now he's out. DB is probably a need position just to add a body or two, at this point -- to no surprise.

[QuikSand]

Quik Notes from the draft screen:

Another intriguing WR - Sean Brackett, 4.42/7/09, big BPR bar
WR Brock Sansbury - 4.44 and maxed BPR
SLB Les Hanks - 4.65 and strong PRT bar, other good bars
WLB Arnold Maru - 22 str, 35 sole, L-bars
SS Bill Andrus - 3 blues, 38 pos
DT Clifton Baker- 4.96/7.83
TE A.J. Tucker - 5 blues
TE Deion Gogan - 4 blues, max Run Bl bar
QB Andre Young - 4.53 dash, L-bars

[QuikSand]

Here's the file as we sit in the post-draft pool, 2017.

http://www.sevenshuffles.com/QuikSand/imtbuf2017.zip

[MIJB#19]

Let's see if I'm getting a handle on his this drafting stuff really works. Below are players who were above average in all (sometimes all but one) of the combine scores. I haven't really looked at the bars for most of these players, the combines made them stand out.
QB Lonnie Mills
QB D.J. Rhodes
QB Travis Miller (probably busts anyway, his agility is too low)
RB Byron Vought (no combine)
RB Zach Norgard
FB Kurt Huang
FB Jamie Thibodeaux
TE Deion Gogan
TE Bernie Warren
TE A.J. Tucker
WR Derek Conley
WR Drew Messina
WR Brock Sansbury
WR Sean Brackett
C Korey Molenaar
G Russell Norris
G Clay Dollilole
T Brian McElroy
P Lorenzo Morris (no combine)
K Adam Rayburn
K Lamont Gunn
DE J.B. Leslie
DE Lance Mayfield
DT Jerome Cunningham
DT Bryan Rodriguez
MLB Ethan Van Pelt
SLB J.B. Saban (no combine)
SLB Lee Hanks
SLB Heath Wooden
WLB Burt Emmons
CB J.B. Horton
S Teddy Compton

[QuikSand]

Should have time to get to this today for a bit. Plan will be to sign all the MIJB guys, plus the combine guys from above, and basically move on.

[QuikSand]

Player	#	Pos   Start	Exp	Current Estimate	Future Estimate C	Current Estimate	Future Estimate	dCE	dFE
Duran, Tommie	3	QB	7	30	30	31	31	1	1
Cobb, Patrick	12	QB	4	21	30	24	31	3	1
Davison, Corey	11	QB	4	20	47	24	47	4	0
Mills, Lonnie	4	QB	1	10	22	14	23	4	1
Rhodes, D.J.	16	QB	1	9	29	12	30	3	1
Miller, Travis	2	QB	1	7	45	10	40	3	-5
Young, Andre	1	QB	1	8	29	9	30	1	1
Meteer, Alan	9	RB	3	34	42	37	37	3	-5
Richmond, Happenstance	28	RB	2	27	29	30	30	3	1
McNulty, Tracy	34	RB	3	26	26	27	27	1	1
Norgard, Zach	29	RB	1	23	30	24	30	1	0
Vought, Byron	43	RB	1	19	27	20	27	1	0
Prado, Carl	36	FB	3	42	42	43	43	1	1
Huang, Kurt	33	FB	1	24	34	27	38	3	4
Thibodeaux, Jamie	44	FB	1	20	49	20	40	0	-9
Small, Russell	40	FB	8	16	16	17	17	1	1
Manning, Vernon	45	FB	8	9	9	8	8	-1	-1
Fredrickson, Peter	41	TE	7	56	56	56	56	0	0
Milgate, Craig	80	TE	3	38	51	42	51	4	0
Rackley, D.J.	85	TE	7	33	33	34	34	1	1
Gogan, Deion	89	TE	1	13	43	16	40	3	-3
Warren, Bennie	82	TE	1	13	33	16	35	3	2
Tucker, A.J.	83	TE	1	10	28	12	28	2	0
Staat, Raymond	18	FL	4	38	38	38	38	0	0
Keith, Terrell	84	FL	3	26	31	28	31	2	0
Harding, Dean	43	FL	1	24	39	24	36	0	-3
Owens, Gus	13	FL	7	29	29	22	22	-7	-7
Penxa, Bucky	10	SE	6	40	40	40	40	0	0
Bennett, Ralph	81	SE	4	19	22	20	20	1	-2
Conley, Gary	7	SE	1	18	43	20	40	2	-3
Torrence, Marco	88	SE	2	17	26	18	26	1	0
Brackett, Sean	8	SE	1	16	24	18	27	2	3
Sansbury, Brock	87	SE	1	15	31	18	34	3	3
Messina, Drew	17	SE	1	14	17	17	21	3	4
Lee, Edward	86	SE	8	3	3	2	2	-1	-1
Bernstein, Marcus	59	C	5	44	44	43	43	-1	-1
Kelly, Andy	53	C	2	28	42	32	42	4	0
Molenaar, Korey	65	C	1	12	36	15	39	3	3
Musum, Ryan	67	LG	8	37	37	37	37	0	0
Dollilole, Clay	77	LG	1	15	35	18	34	3	-1
Norris, Russell	63	LG	1	12	36	14	37	2	1
McLain, Rod	60	RG	8	37	37	37	37	0	0
McKnight, Steve	61	RG	3	29	35	32	35	3	0
Price, Everett	78	LT	4	34	34	34	34	0	0
Beyer, Alex	76	LT	8	29	29	29	29	0	0
Greenberg, Bert	64	LT	1	12	17	13	19	1	2
Donovan, Tommie	62	RT	5	38	38	38	38	0	0
Klinger, Stan	68	RT	5	34	45	31	37	-3	-8
McElroy, Brian	73	RT	1	12	20	15	24	3	4
Springer, Curtis	14	P	7	48	48	48	48	0	0
Morris, Lorenzo	15	P	1	28	63	28	56	0	-7
Monroe, Marshall	19	K	4	38	38	39	39	1	1
Rayburn, Adam	6	K	1	20	26	20	26	0	0
Gunn, Lamont	5	K	1	11	12	13	18	2	6
May, Ted	90	LDE	5	34	35	37	37	3	2
Castillo, Benjamin	71	LDE	5	21	21	26	26	5	5
Morton, Wes	70	RDE	2	28	37	31	37	3	0
Godfrey, Justin	79	RDE	8	28	28	23	23	-5	-5
Mayfield, Lance	99	RDE	1	20	40	23	40	3	0
Leslie, J.B.	94	RDE	1	18	36	21	37	3	1
Ballard, Kendall	96	LDT	8	28	28	22	22	-6	-6
Cunningham, Jerome	98	LDT	1	17	29	20	32	3	3
Baker, Clifton	75	LDT	1	15	27	18	28	3	1
Rodriguez, Bryan	72	RDT	1	16	41	19	43	3	2
Grebene, Clarence	74	NT	7	29	29	14	14	-15	-15
Brownlee, Ben	50	SILB	7	35	35	36	36	1	1
Tanner, George	57	SILB	2	21	45	25	45	4	0
Hanaki, Bert	91	WILB	8	33	33	33	33	0	0
Canady, Daniel	95	WILB	4	30	34	32	34	2	0
Van Pelt, Ethan	66	MLB	1	13	38	17	39	4	1
Morris, Tito	69	MLB	1	14	30	15	27	1	-3
Israelson, Ray	54	SLB	8	37	37	37	37	0	0
Bordelon, Korey	52	SLB	3	27	27	28	28	1	1
Coggins, Brenden	51	SLB	3	25	33	26	32	1	-1
Hanks, Les	93	SLB	1	16	43	19	40	3	-3
Saban, J.B.	56	SLB	1	13	42	15	36	2	-6
Wooden, Heath	35	SLB	1	11	19	14	22	3	3
Fletcher, Jamie	92	WLB	6	33	33	34	34	1	1
Burbage, Lionel	58	WLB	2	22	30	24	31	2	1
Caban, Justin	55	WLB	1	20	34	24	33	4	-1
Emmons, Burt	97	WLB	1	19	45	21	40	2	-5
Biletnikoff, O.J.	38	LCB	4	34	34	35	35	1	1
Davison, Leslie	24	LCB	5	25	25	25	25	0	0
Sawyer, Juan	37	RCB	6	26	26	26	26	0	0
Ethridge, Leon	22	RCB	7	18	18	18	18	0	0
Cole, Roosevelt	49	RCB	1	16	28	18	28	2	0
Horton, J.B.	35	RCB	1	11	29	14	29	3	0
Rutter, Quentin	26	SS	8	41	41	41	41	0	0
Alexander, Kim	39	SS	7	32	32	33	33	1	1
Compton, Teddy	21	SS	1	14	25	16	25	2	0
Grant, Lamont	25	SS	1	12	40	15	36	3	-4
Robinson, Otis	42	SS	8	15	15	9	9	-6	-6
Lynch, Antonio	30	FS	7	42	42	43	43	1	1

[QuikSand]

Seemingly random drop for DT Grebene... basically makes a long-term affinity starter (for lack of strong options) into a bag or bones. Sucks.

FB Kurt Huang gives a +4... not the best position to get another breakout, but we'll take it. He's **way** too fat to play RB.

Three more creeping receivers... this is getting absurd, there definitely won't be enough balls to go around. (Should we maybe star throwing a good deal more, though?)

Two more creeping tackles and a center... OL is getting chock full of interesting guys too. I may be tempted to slot McElroy right in as the long term RT starter.

DE Castillo has a seemingly random breakout, but is still 0,0 in the top two ratings

Maybe DT Jerome Cunningham should be the NT starter now?

[QuikSand]

Okay, onward into the season. Cutdowns are a bitch, we had to dump a ton of decent veterans and +1/2 creepers to get to 53, but I'm there. This will remain a run-first team, but I drop the run % on 1st and 10 from 60 to 53, in an effort to smooth things out a bit more. I'd like to see WR Staat with the ball in his hands more than we have been doing.

Plan again is to start with Duran, and go from there. If the team seems to be taking shape by the halfway point, I might just declare him the man, and be done with it. Or, we could give Cobb a look - his bars remain upwardly creeping and look okay, but the guy was just a pick machine last season.

We start out 2-1, and once again I am enchanted by early results into believing maybe the team is putting something together...

[QuikSand]

Front Office Football 2007
2017 Summary for Buffalo Bills
   
Year                2017                                      
Record              3-13                                      
Winning Pct.        .187                                      
All-Time            23-121                                    
Winning Pct.        .159                                      
Playoffs            0-0                                       
Playoff Visits      0                                         
Bowl Wins           0                                         
Head Coach          Sam Frederick                             
Record              17-111                                    
Winning Pct.        .132                                      
Off. Coord.         K. Clark                                  
Def. Coord.         A. Newton                                 
   
Buffalo Bills           Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         24.4      25          
Rushing Yards           91.6      29          
Yards Per Carry         3.76      31          
Pass Attempts           39.1      6           
Completions             20.5      16          
Completion Pct.         52.5      32          
Passing Yards           229.1     14          
Yards Per Attempt       5.87      30          
Yards Per Catch         11.18     12          
Total Yardage Gained    306.1     27          
3rd Down Conversions    40.3      11          
Points Per Game         14.6      28          
Pass Rush Pct.          18.7      14          
Pass Defense Pct.       51.9      11          
Turnovers               37        31          
Turnover Margin         -15       29          
   
Opponents               Team      Rank  
Rushes per Game         30.6      31          
Rushing Yards           120.7     22          
Yards Per Carry         3.94      5           
Pass Attempts           28.9      3 (T)       
Completions             17.7      1           
Completion Pct.         61.1      10          
Passing Yards           190.2     1           
Yards Per Attempt       6.57      11          
Yards Per Catch         10.75     14          
Total Yardage Gained    299.6     3           
3rd Down Conversions    40.4      22          
Points Per Game         22.0      23 (T)      
Pass Rush Pct.          23.4      32          
Pass Defense Pct.       73.6      32          
Turnovers               22        21 (T)      
   
Week  Team  Versus        Oppnt  
1     13    NED           16      
2     10    CAR           3       
3     36    IND           21      
4     14    at MIA        16      
5     13    at DEN        38      
6     14    at OAK        27      
8     17    SDO           31      
9     20    NYJ           3       
10    7     KCY           24      
11    6     at NED        35      
12    12    at NOS        17      
13    16    at CIN        26      
14    20    at TBY        27      
15    26    MIA           27      
16    3     ATL           28      
17    7     at NYJ        13      
   
Passing                 Pos   Att   Comp  Yards Y/Att TD    Int   Rate  
3 T. Duran              QB    499   262   2751  5.51  18    20    64.1    
12 P. Cobb              QB    126   66    915   7.26  1     7     55.5    
**Team                  ---   625   328   3666  5.87  19    27    62.4    
$$Opp                   ---   463   283   3043  6.57  19    14    81.5    
   
Rushing                 Pos   Att   Yards Y/Att TD    Fum  
9 A. Meteer             RB    185   825   4.46  1     10       
Front Office Football 2007
28 H. Richmond          RB    122   386   3.16  2     0       
34 T. McNulty           RB    44    177   4.02  0     1       
**Team                  ---   390   1465  3.76  3     21      
$$Opp                   ---   490   1931  3.94  15    16      
   
Receiving               Pos   Targ  Catch Yards Y/Ctc Y/Tar Drop  TD  
10 B. Penxa             WR    152   74    965   13.04 6.35  11    5       
84 T. Keith             WR    107   64    818   12.78 7.64  5     3       
18 R. Staat             WR    110   50    567   11.34 5.15  5     2       
41 P. Fredrickson       TE    53    34    314   9.24  5.92  1     3       
87 B. Sansbury          WR    63    34    430   12.65 6.83  3     2       
28 H. Richmond          RB    21    16    120   7.50  5.71  2     0       
   
Defense                 Pos   Tack  Asst  Sack  Hurr  Ints  Defn  PDPct  
50 B. Brownlee          ILB   82    32    2.5   0     3     8     82.1    
26 Q. Rutter            S     79    39    0.0   0     3     7     81.2    
54 R. Israelson         OLB   69    26    1.0   2     1     6     74.3    
91 B. Hanaki            ILB   66    24    0.5   0     1     0     78.2    
30 A. Lynch             S     66    21    0.0   1     0     10    76.5    
58 L. Burbage           OLB   43    20    8.0   17    0     2     81.2    
38 O. Biletnikoff       CB    36    10    0.0   0     3     6     77.7    
57 G. Tanner            ILB   34    16    1.0   0     1     1     76.2    
24 L. Davison           CB    31    8     0.0   0     1     1     76.6    
39 K. Alexander         S     29    11    0.0   0     0     2     74.4    
37 J. Sawyer            CB    29    10    0.0   0     0     2     75.3    
72 B. Rodriguez         DT    29    18    0.0   3     0     0     80.8    
79 J. Godfrey           DE    27    12    1.0   3     0     0     80.6    
92 J. Fletcher          OLB   24    9     4.0   6     0     1     80.6    
22 L. Ethridge          CB    23    8     0.0   1     1     4     81.2    
90 T. May               DE    22    12    2.0   7     0     0     80.7    
98 J. Cunningham        DT    19    9     3.0   0     0     0     82.5    
95 D. Canady            ILB   17    6     1.0   0     0     0     75.5     

Not so much, then.

[QuikSand]

Forgot to do the measures at the start, so I will do them at the end of the season (likely some skew here):

Roster rating: 2 (32nd, second to last is 19)
Cohesion ratings: 84 (15th), 97 (2nd), 81 (12th), 93 (2nd)
AffIndex: 81