Obama versus McCain (versus the rest)

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Look again. The secret is in the post.

Yes, but I'm not a paid journalist in a publication that at face value claims to be an unbias news source. BIG difference.

[larrymcg421]

McCain struggling in several Bush states. Here are the recent state polls, with Bush's margins in parentheses.

GA: 44-43 (+17, +12)
NC: 45-43 (+12, +13)
VA: 44-45 (+9, +8)
CO: 41-43 (+5, +9)
MO: 42-43 (+7, +3)
SC: 50-44 (+20, +17)
ND: 44-38 (+27, +28)
AK: 45-41 (+27, +31)

Obama is struggling in a Kerry/Gore state

CT: 47-44 (+10, +18)

Also, the Senate races look really ugly for the GOP. The only Dem seat in trouble is Mary Landrieu's. Meanwhile, the Republicans are currently losing seats in Colorado, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia. They also have to play big time defense in Alaska, Kentucky, and Minnesota.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

This isn't Fox News, a network that claims to be "fair and balanced", i.e. an unbiased news source, calling Michelle Obama "Obama's Baby Mama"?

You made the assumption that I believe that the staff at National Review and FoxNews are somehow anymore 'fair and balanced' than the staff at the NY Times. That couldn't be further from the truth.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

McCain struggling in several Bush states. Here are the recent state polls, with Bush's margins in parentheses.

GA: 44-43 (+17, +12)
NC: 45-43 (+12, +13)
VA: 44-45 (+9, +8)
CO: 41-43 (+5, +9)
MO: 42-43 (+7, +3)
SC: 50-44 (+20, +17)
ND: 44-38 (+27, +28)
AK: 45-41 (+27, +31)

Obama is struggling in a Kerry/Gore state

CT: 47-44 (+10, +18)

Also, the Senate races look really ugly for the GOP. The only Dem seat in trouble is Mary Landrieu's. Meanwhile, the Republicans are currently losing seats in Colorado, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia. They also have to play big time defense in Alaska, Kentucky, and Minnesota.

Mind posting the source site? Thanks.

[larrymcg421]

http://electoral-vote.com

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Fox News and National Review didn't make those statements, but rather someone on their staff made an editorial comment using those terms.

Actually, Fox News used it in a graphic flashed at the bottom of the screen during a "debate" in which neither of the participants used the phrase. The graphic read "Outraged Liberals: Stop picking on Obama's Baby Mama!"

It's easy to google it.

Edit: OMG! Beaten by Ronnie Dobbs!

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

http://electoral-vote.com

Wow. When they say those 7 states are 'barely democrat', they aren't kidding. All of Obama's poll leads in those states are very slim. Should make for another fun election night. Per the usual, I'll be watching my home state to see who is President. Missouri still has the highest percentage of picking a winner of any state. Right now, Obama has a 43-42 lead.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Also, the Senate races look really ugly for the GOP. The only Dem seat in trouble is Mary Landrieu's. Meanwhile, the Republicans are currently losing seats in Colorado, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia. They also have to play big time defense in Alaska, Kentucky, and Minnesota.

Maine may also come into play. Democrat Tom Allen's been slowly making up ground on Collins. He's not there yet, though, but since everyone's been expecting this particular matchup for about 4 years, I think it'll be at least somewhat competitive before it's over.

[larrymcg421]

Newsweek poll has Obama with a 15 point lead: 51-36

It's a pretty big outlier at the moment, so we'll see if any other polls verify this number.

Source: http://pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

[Greyroofoo]

There has never been such a election where I have so proudly voted 3rd party!!!

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Newsweek poll has Obama with a 15 point lead: 51-36

It's a pretty big outlier at the moment, so we'll see if any other polls verify this number.

Source: http://pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

I hate popular vote polls. They are useless.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Newsweek poll has Obama with a 15 point lead: 51-36

Much as I want to, I can't believe this poll. That's a "McCain killed a dog" type of change from their last poll. As you said, we'll have to see what the other polls say.

On another front, though, multiple polls now put NH officially out of play (in Obama's camp).

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Much as I want to, I can't believe this poll. That's a "McCain killed a dog" type of change from their last poll. As you said, we'll have to see what the other polls say.

On another front, though, multiple polls now put NH officially out of play (in Obama's camp).

Also, Shaheen has a 14-point lead over Sununu in Rasmussen's NH poll.

In one of the most watched House races, Democrat Baron Hill is trying to hold on to his seat in a heavily Republican district. The latest poll has him up by a surprising 11 points.

[ISiddiqui]

While I can see a Hillary bump for Obama, I can't see it being 15 points. That's just crazy!

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

While I can see a Hillary bump for Obama, I can't see it being 15 points. That's just crazy!

Ah, but is it a Terrorist Fist Bump?

[Flasch186]

talk about desperate fear mongering. FOX = Fear Over Anything

[Axxon]

I'm watching Meet the Press and they have Lindsey Graham and Joe Biden are on.

A quick thought. It's amazing how much my opinion of Lindsey Graham has fallen over the years. He's just a mealy mouthpiece any more. His answers were so disingenuous that it was sickening. When I first moved to South Carolina I voted for him for the House but now I wouldn't vote for him for dogcatcher.

My second thought is, personal opinion aside, I may have been watching the two VP candidates here. That's what I am asking in this post. Anyone think this is possible?

[Young Drachma]

Biden is too much of a loose trigger. Both are possible, but Lindsey doesn't really give John what he needs, which is balance to his ticket. I still think Tim Pawlenty is the odds-on choice for him.

Obama...is probably going to target someone with military experience it seems. That could be just smoke to mask their real choice, though. Their pick really intrigues me, because it'll be so interesting what they decide to do and why.

[larrymcg421]

I guess Graham is a possibility, but I seriously doubt Biden. Obama has lots of choices like Nunn, Richardson, and Clark that offer so much more to the ticket than Biden could.

[Swaggs]

I think Biden is as good a possibility as anyone else, but I think I'd like to see Wesley Clark. I think he would help put Arkansas in play, was a 4-star general which will help shore up Obama's perceived inexperience in national security, he has been against the Iraq War and is not a Washington insider (which is consistent with Obama's message), he has been a Clinton surrogate which would help mend that fence, and he will not overshadow Obama.

[Axxon]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I think Biden is as good a possibility as anyone else, but I think I'd like to see Wesley Clark. I think he would help put Arkansas in play, was a 4-star general which will help shore up Obama's perceived inexperience in national security, he has been against the Iraq War and is not a Washington insider (which is consistent with Obama's message), he has been a Clinton surrogate which would help mend that fence, and he will not overshadow Obama.

It was interesting that when they asked, Joe said he wasn't interested in the VP job but personally, I think he is and is just Biden his time.

[ISiddiqui]

You were just waiting to pull that pun out.

[Axxon]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

You were just waiting to pull that pun out.

True, true.

[flounder]

Graham won't be McCain's VP pick, because McCain wants to put him on the Supreme Court, God help us all.

[Swaggs]

I have read in various spots that Kerry, Biden, and Dodd are all interested in being Sec. of State.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I have read in various spots that Kerry, Biden, and Dodd are all interested in being Sec. of State.

Hell no, no, and maybe.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

talk about desperate fear mongering. FOX = Fear Over Anything

I think your acronym formation needs work.

[Noop]

Well if X = The Unknown; then technically he is right. Because the unknown could be anything or nothing.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by Noop

Well if X = The Unknown; then technically he is right. Because the unknown could be anything or nothing.

We have a weener

[Chief Rum]

Bah! You guys are reaching.

[Axxon]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Bah! You guys are reaching.

Not as far as Lindsey Graham for Supreme Court Justice but yeah.

[Swaggs]

Bob Barr, the former Republican congressmamn and current Libertarian presidential candidate, is polling around 6% in his home state of Georgia according to an Insider Advantage poll.

His presence on the ballot will likely turn Georgia into a swing state, as McCain and Obama are in a statistical tie (44-43) with Barr included, or at leat force McCain to play defense and spend resources there.

[flere-imsaho]

McCain's top advisor, Charlie Black, also known as the guy who worked as a lobbyist for Ahmed Chalabi (the Iraqi who urged the Bush Administration into war and gave them false intelligence) had this to say about terrorism and the McCain campaign:

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto in December was an "unfortunate event," says Black. "But his knowledge and ability to talk about it reemphasized that this is the guy who's ready to be Commander-in-Chief. And it helped us." As would, Black concedes with startling candor after we raise the issue, another terrorist attack on U.S. soil. "Certainly it would be a big advantage to him," says Black.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

McCain's top advisor, Charlie Black, also known as the guy who worked as a lobbyist for Ahmed Chalabi (the Iranian spy who urged the Bush Administration into war and gave them false intelligence) had this to say about terrorism and the McCain campaign:

I fixed it for you flere.

[larrymcg421]

Three new state polls released today...

Indiana - Obama 48, McCain 47 (SurveyUSA)
New Mexico - Obama 49, McCain 46 (SurveyUSA)
Arizona - McCain 38, Obama 28 (Arizona State)

Indiana in play is huge for the Dems. Gore lost by 17 and Kerry lost by 21 there. If Obama made Bayh his VP, it would turn into a lock for them.

Still trying to find out if that AZ poll is a typo or if the ASU pollsters who did it are just smoking weed, because that's an insanely high number of undecideds.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Indiana in play is huge for the Dems. Gore lost by 17 and Kerry lost by 21 there. If Obama made Bayh his VP, it would turn into a lock for them.

That's just crazy. Only a week ago Indiana was a red as could be. It looks like a lot of state-by-state polling will see big revisions due to the end of the Democratic nomination race. Even so, being competitive in Indiana is pretty crazy.

Still trying to find out if that AZ poll is a typo or if the ASU pollsters who did it are just smoking weed, because that's an insanely high number of undecideds.

Sample size was 350, with a MoE of around 5%, but still, McCain should be owning Arizona (like Obama owns Illinois).

Also, the L.A. Times has a national poll that matches Newsweek's showing a 12-point Obama lead. I still can't believe this, but... two outlying polls... ?

[larrymcg421]

(note: I see flere beat me to this)

So the Newsweek poll that showed Obama up 51-35 seemed even fishier when Gallup had the tally at 50-44. However, a LA Times/Bloomberg poll has similar results:

Obama 49, McCain 37 (without Nader/Barr)
Obama 48, McCain 33 (with Nader/Barr)

The Nader/Barr results are interesting, as it looks like Barr is going to hurt McCain much more than Nader will hurt Obama.

[ISiddiqui]

If we look at realclearpolitics things are really, really wierd:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

They have Gallup Tracking listed at 46-43 Obama and Rasmussen Tracking at 49-45 Obama... sandwiched between 15 point lead in Newsweek and 12 point lead for LA Times. I don't think anyone knows what's going on.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

If we look at realclearpolitics things are really, really wierd:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

They have Gallup Tracking listed at 46-43 Obama and Rasmussen Tracking at 49-45 Obama... sandwiched between 15 point lead in Newsweek and 12 point lead for LA Times. I don't think anyone knows what's going on.

People wanting to reach a self-fulfilling prophesy?

[chesapeake]

The same tired allegations of Sen. Graham's sexual preferences would probably get dredged up yet again if he were the VP choice for the GOP. I think McCain recognizes that could be problematic to the Christian conservatives he needs to turn out en masse. My money is still on someone with burnished conservative credentials. And not a Senator. Just about every member of the Senate from both parties hate his guts.

[larrymcg421]

Kay Bailey Hutchinson would be a terrific pick for McCain. If I was running his campaign, I would suggest that over and over again until he said yes.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Food for thought:

After Attacks, Michelle Obama Looks for a New Introduction

I think she'll be attacked just as much as Theresa Heinz Kerry was attacked in 2004. However, this time I think Cindy McCain will get plenty of attacks on her as well, after all she has plenty of skeletons in her closet.

Both Kerry and Obama had very outspoken wives who were/are going to put themselves out in front. However, they seem to say and do things that make them look bad.

As for Cindy, I don't see her getting a lot of attacks. She's taking a behind-the-scenes approach.

Any idea of when the VP's will be known?

[st.cronin]

I don't remember TH Kerry being attacked much. I mean, I know she was extremely disliked in Limbaugh circles, but I don't recall that making any impact in the mainstream.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by chesapeake

The same tired allegations of Sen. Graham's sexual preferences would probably get dredged up yet again if he were the VP choice for the GOP. I think McCain recognizes that could be problematic to the Christian conservatives he needs to turn out en masse. My money is still on someone with burnished conservative credentials. And not a Senator. Just about every member of the Senate from both parties hate his guts.

Of course, almost every GOP senator is also under investigation for something or other....

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I don't remember TH Kerry being attacked much. I mean, I know she was extremely disliked in Limbaugh circles, but I don't recall that making any impact in the mainstream.

I remember a fair amount of "elitism", "out of touch" and "Kerry married her for the money" BS. I imagine Cindy McCain will see these kinds of attacks while Michelle Obama will get the kind of attacks Hillary Clinton got in 1992 (basically, too opinionated & strong-willed).

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Kay Bailey Hutchinson would be a terrific pick for McCain. If I was running his campaign, I would suggest that over and over again until he said yes.

I believe I read that she is interested in running for governor of Texas in 2010.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Both Kerry and Obama had very outspoken wives who were/are going to put themselves out in front. However, they seem to say and do things that make them look bad.

As for Cindy, I don't see her getting a lot of attacks. She's taking a behind-the-scenes approach.

Any idea of when the VP's will be known?

I think Cindy will only come under attack if/when things get ugly (which, if the polls showing Obama ahead by more than 7-10% prove to be a trend rather than outlier, they almost certainly will). Cindy has some pretty large areas to target, but since the McCains have been in the public eye for a number of years, they have already been out there.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I believe I read that she is interested in running for governor of Texas in 2010.

Well if she runs with McCain, then I think she'll still have that chance.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Cindy has some pretty large areas to target, but since the McCains have been in the public eye for a number of years, they have already been out there.

I disagree that they've already been out there. Her drug addiction and stealing drugs never really surfaced in 2000 because the Bush campaign used the "illegitimate child" angle as the main sliming story during that campaign, and then the nomination was over.

And then McCain's use of Cindy's private jet to campaign (in contravention of campaign finance rules) is new to this cycle, so it may see the light of day, especially if the McCain camp keeps on harping on Obama's campaign finance "flip-flop".

Having said that, it'll probably be Democratic 527s that do these particular attacks, not the Obama campaign itself. Likewise for GOP attacks on Michelle Obama.

[JPhillips]

The substantive problem with Cindy McCain i that by her own admission she is highly involved in the day to day operations of a business that lobbies both Congress and regulatory agencies. If McCain wins this is a serious conflict of interest that will have to get sorted out. I'd like someone to ask McCain what the contingency is in the event he wins.