2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[Edward64]

Thank you SC and thank you African Americans for leading us back from the brainwashing-of-the-youth that is Sanders.

Pundits are saying if/when Bloomberg drops out, his machine will benefit Biden. I hope that plays out, I can see where Biden needs to stay nice, empathetic etc. and Bloomberg can be the outlet to play dirty with Trump & family (as we know Trump will do to Biden & family)

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Dola


Speaking of this, has anyone seen D primary turnout numbers compared to 2016? I'm asking because on Saturday there were multiple FB posts from my SC friends (mostly white suburban "compassionate conservatives" who went to the same outreach church in the 'hood that I did, and are vocal about their disdain for Trump) declaring that they'd voted in their first Dem primary ever. I don't *think* that would be a particularly big group overall, but I guess it's possible I'm underestimating it.

The former Virginia governor was on CNN last night and said it was up 68% in the state from 2016. Haven't heard anything nationally.

[PilotMan]

Well, my initial thoughts on Biden were wrong and right. I thought that his initial bump when he got in the race would be the high point of his campaign and he'd slowly drop off as things progressed. I was right, in that he really wasn't able to capitalize anywhere and boost his numbers significantly. Where I was wrong, was that I underestimated how much he was bringing from the Obama years, and how many people want that tie in. The fact that no other candidate was able to really separate from the pack, other than to let Sanders capture pluralities here and there, left the door open for Biden as the best name remaining.



Imo, he's really only a 2-star candidate. He's got some charisma, he's got some name value and was a VP for 8 years. Those get him the bump he's got. I think people see him as a candidate who should have run 2016 and are more than willing to give him the support he would have had then, rather than being forced to swallow the candidate they got.



This morning, trump and the R's should be stunned at the numbers that turned out yesterday. The sheer magnitude of votes cast should send a clear message that there's a fight coming.



As for Sanders, I honestly think he's got a good message, and I think his message from a different delivery boy would strongly resonate more. But he's got his own lifetime of issues. He should have dropped out after the heart attack and his populism isn't the path that America should be taking.



I wonder, just how far will the president and his senate go to attacking a political rival with the wheels of government? And is this the new pathway in American politics going forward forever?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

As for Sanders, I honestly think he's got a good message, and I think his message from a different delivery boy would strongly resonate more. But he's got his own lifetime of issues. He should have dropped out after the heart attack and his populism isn't the path that America should be taking.

I couldn't agree more with everything but maybe that last point. Bernie just wasn't the vehicle that was going to put his ideas over the top. I don't know that his style of populism isn't just exactly what we need. We just need the right leader to bring it forward even further.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

The 30something educated women on my FB feed are, almost to a person. shocked and angry that Warren isn’t the front runner.

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

That's what I was trying to get at and failing. Their bubble is such that they are both shocked and angry that she hasn't already sewn this thing up.

In Warren's home state...

CNN exit poll data shows Warren won white college-graduate women, and lost every other demo: https://t.co/Ngae9UHftW pic.twitter.com/kdFGxyDoZM

— Dan Mauzy (@danmauzy) March 4, 2020

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Where I was wrong, was that I underestimated how much he was bringing from the Obama years, and how many people want that tie in.

I left that out in talking about black Dem voters yesterday. The man played loyal 2nd fiddle to the first black President. That's a big deal with black D voters--especially the older ones.

[ISiddiqui]

So I woke up this morning, checked my phone and... Biden won Texas? And is not getting beat too bad in California? What a great Super Tuesday for him.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Lathum

The former Virginia governor was on CNN last night and said it was up 68% in the state from 2016. Haven't heard anything nationally.

That's. Insane.

[spleen1015]

I really the hope the folks who didn't vote in 2016 because they though Hilary was going to win have decided to vote this year.

I don't even know if this is something real. I just hope it is.

[Kodos]

Last night gave me a little hope that Trump can really be defeated. The turnouts in some places were very encouraging. Seeing the people in Texas standing in Disney-like lines to vote was really heartening to see.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by molson

I'm so glad to live in a state where I've never waited more than 1 minute to vote, even on an actual election day. It's so embarrassing that people are waiting in line in Texas and California for hours after the polls close.

That's somewhat their own fault. Some polls places have been open all weekend. I waited 3 minutes at mine and that was because the people working it were sloooow

[Ryche]

Can't tell you how much I like having my ballot mailed to me and then dropped off at a ballot box.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

I left that out in talking about black Dem voters yesterday. The man played loyal 2nd fiddle to the first black President. That's a big deal with black D voters--especially the older ones.

And on the other side, spending so much time saying everything Obama did was garbage really drives away 30 and older black voters.

[Ben E Lou]

Double whammy: younger voters comprised a lower percentage of the turnout, and Bernie’s support among that demographic Super Tuesday: Bernie Sanders' youth votes fell short compared to 2016

[JonInMiddleGA]

I'll just drop this in here as it kinda fits I think. This is a UGA-administered poll (same as the AJC usually pays to conduct, though they didn't pay for this one), covering Georgia voters.

The poll showed the president had the widest edge over U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, beating him by a 52-41 margin, and the smallest lead over former Mayor Mike Bloomberg at 50-42. Trump led former Vice President Joe Biden by a 51-43 clip and held a 52-42 advantage over U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren

As for the Senate race (appointed Loeffler vs the field), "tightens" may be misleading to some who aren't familiar. Because it's a special election for an unexpired term, it's a "jungle primary" all candidates in one batch. It's tightened but not in a way that will encourage the (D)

In the race for U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler’s seat, the incumbent (19%) was neck-and-neck with U.S. Rep. Doug Collins (21%), a four-term congressman who qualified to challenge her this week. Matt Lieberman, the son of former Sen. Joe Lieberman (11%), was the only Democrat of the four polled who tallied double-digits. ...Trailing him with 6% of the vote is Raphael Warnock, the establishment-backed candidate who recently entered the race. Former prosecutor Ed Tarver had about 4% of the vote.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/ug...VmwOHXdDMbfQL/

[GrantDawg]

Bloomberg drops out of the race, per campaign chair. Warren is home considering, will probably drop later today.

[GrantDawg]

dola: Bloomberg endorses Biden in email dropping.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

The socially-conservative thing is probably spot-on. I'd link it to religion too. I know for instance that you have to be at church on Sunday if you want to be elected by the black community in Chicago. What church you belong to matters a lot.

Obama's decision to attend Trinity for instance was more about politics at the time than anything else. It was how you made connections in the community.

Follow-up on this. CNN has exit polling broken down by frequency of attending religious services. In every state I checked, Biden won landslide numbers (as in he typically got over 50%, with no one else even getting 20%) among those who attend weekly services, and Bernie won less handily, though still decisively, among those who said they never attend.


Another interesting thing I just saw that MAY lend more credence to the thought that more disaffected Rs voted in the D primary than I would have guessed: 40% of Biden voters in VA said they would NOT "vote blue no matter who."

[Galaril]

In a statement announcing that he is ending his presidential bid, former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg said that he is endorsing Joe Biden for president.

Bloomberg wrote:

“I’ve always believed that defeating Donald Trump starts with uniting behind the candidate with the best shot to do it. After yesterday’s vote, it is clear that candidate is my friend and a great American, Joe Biden.
I’ve known Joe for a very long time. I know his decency, his honesty, and his commitment to the issues that are so important to our country – including gun safety, health care, climate change, and good jobs.
“I’ve had the chance to work with Joe on those issues over the years, and Joe has fought for working people his whole life. Today I am glad to endorse him – and I will work to make him the next President of the United States.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Follow-up on this. CNN has exit polling broken down by frequency of attending religious services. In every state I checked, Biden won landslide numbers (as in he typically got over 50%, with no one else even getting 20%) among those who attend weekly services, and Bernie won less handily, though still decisively, among those who said they never attend.


Another interesting thing I just saw that MAY lend more credence to the thought that more disaffected Rs voted in the D primary than I would have guessed: 40% of Biden voters in VA said they would NOT "vote blue no matter who."

So does that mean their were R's voting in the D primary to help Biden win since they believe Trump can be him more easily than Sanders or they have crossed the aisle and are now going to vote Dem in the election?

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Bloomberg drops out of the race, per campaign chair. Warren is home considering, will probably drop later today.

Yeah, Warren is "reassessing" what to do after finishing third in her home state. She's out.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by Galaril

So does that mean their were R's voting in the D primary to help Biden win since they believe Trump can be him more easily than Sanders or they have crossed the aisle and are now going to vote Dem in the election?

My thought would be for R's crossing the aisle is much like Bloomberg's reason for entering the primaries... Trump>>>Biden>>>>>>>>>Sanders.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Galaril

So does that mean their were R's voting in the D primary to help Biden win since they believe Trump can be him more easily than Sanders or they have crossed the aisle and are now going to vote Dem in the election?

If I recall correctly, in VA you can just walk in and ask for either Party's ballot. If I'm wrong, and there's some actual effort required to switch in a primary in Virginia, then it's likely the latter. But if I'm right, then further data would be required to assess that.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by panerd

My thought would be for R's crossing the aisle is much like Bloomberg's reason for entering the primaries... Trump>>>Biden>>>>>>>>>Sanders.

To be clear, that's certainly a thing for some--just not sure how many. (I even had a conservative friend of mine here in NC that he was voting for Biden in the primary so he could vote 3rd party in the general and not worry about contributing to Bernie winning. Do WHUT????)

[Galaril]

So with Bloomberg support behind Biden even when Warren drops out and assuming she supports Bernie does that give him much boost or do Bloomberg Warren cross off each other?

[JPhillips]

I'm not certain Warren endorses Bernie. She may sit on the sidelines. I think only 1/2 to 2/3 of her support goes to Bernie. There are a lot of pissed off Warren supporters due to the constant calls for her to drop out from Bernie folks.

[albionmoonlight]

It's a sample size of 1, but I'm a Warren voter, and Bernie is my least favorite of the major candidates.

Mayor Pete was my #2 choice.

I care more about whether a President is competent and can get stuff done than about Right/Left.

To listen to the pundits, a Warren/Buttigeg voter makes no sense. But, to me, it always made perfect sense.

People are weird and complicated. Voting people are no different.

[larrymcg421]

The exit polls show a 66/7/27 (Dem/Gop/Ind) split for Virginia voters. 4 years ago, when there was a competitive Republican primary, the split was 76/3/22. So there were clearly some Republicans doing that, but not enough to make that much of a difference.

[chesapeake]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

If I recall correctly, in VA you can just walk in and ask for either Party's ballot. If I'm wrong, and there's some actual effort required to switch in a primary in Virginia, then it's likely the latter. But if I'm right, then further data would be required to assess that.

There was only one ballot in VA yesterday and it was all Democratic. The GOP cancelled its primary. The state party will select its delegates at its convention later in the year. But in VA, as long as you're in your correct polling place, you can vote. You do not have to declare a party affiliation.



The Post's story on voting in Virginia yesterday quoted one Republican in NoVA who voted for Sanders as his way of helping Trump. I also know of a Republican who voted for Biden yesterday. He told me that he hadn't decided who he was going to vote for in November, but he at least wanted the option not to vote for Trump. He felt that Bernie did not give him that choice, but of the remaining viable candidates, Biden did.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Galaril

So with Bloomberg support behind Biden even when Warren drops out and assuming she supports Bernie does that give him much boost or do Bloomberg Warren cross off each other?

Their supporters may cross each other off but Bloomberg's resources will certainly help Biden (but not sure how this will work with campaign finance laws).

Which makes me wonder - if Bloomberg can successfully help out Biden with his $ and resources, what would stop future elections to be "helped" by billionaires who have too much money. I would think $1B to the Koch organization is not a big deal if they can put in a friendly candidate in the WH.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Galaril

So with Bloomberg support behind Biden even when Warren drops out and assuming she supports Bernie does that give him much boost or do Bloomberg Warren cross off each other?

It seems in most states Bloomberg and Warren basically tied each other (with the exception of Massachusetts). So they should cancel each other out.

[panerd]

If I were Bloomberg and made of money why not sit on the sidelines until the convention but not officially withdrawal? Biden reminds me of my 77 year old mother who is perfectly competent to me but has a lot of talking gaffes that others would attribute to not being there mentally. And Sanders had a heart attack. (COVID19 but that's getting really morbid) Seems like he could be the only one remaining.

[ISiddiqui]

A very good Vox article on Sanders:

Sanders vs. Biden: You can’t lead a party you loathe - Vox

It’s not that Sanders is running a weak campaign. But he is, in a way, running the wrong campaign. He’s the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination — at least he was until tonight — but he’s still running as an insurgent. The political revolution was supposed to close the gap between these realities: If Sanders could turn out enough new voters, he could sweep away the Democratic establishment and build his own party in its place. But going all the way back to Iowa, that strategy failed. Sanders won as a Democrat, not a revolutionary, and he needed to pivot to a strategy that would unite the existing Democratic Party around him.

But it’s hard to move from treating the Democratic Party establishment with contempt to treating it like a constituency, and so far, the Sanders campaign hasn’t.

This kind of thinking is a bigger problem for the Sanders operation than people realize: If you treat voters and officials in the party you want to lead as the enemy, a lot of people in that party aren’t going to trust you to lead them. It’s part of the reason Sanders trails not just Biden but also Mike Bloomberg and Warren in endorsements from prominent elected Democrats.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by panerd

If I were Bloomberg and made of money why not sit on the sidelines until the convention but not officially withdrawal? Biden reminds me of my 77 year old mother who is perfectly competent to me but has a lot of talking gaffes that others would attribute to not being there mentally. And Sanders had a heart attack. (COVID19 but that's getting really morbid) Seems like he could be the only one remaining.

My guess is he believes Biden is now a viable candidate and his continuation will hurt Biden's chances.

The MSM have been saying Bloomberg was primarily in it to defeat Trump, not that he needed to be President. He jumped in because he saw Biden flailing and thought he could be the alternative if Biden crashes.

[ISiddiqui]

The ones who have left (at least recently) are ALL on the sidelines. They have 'suspended' their campaigns.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

It's a sample size of 1, but I'm a Warren voter, and Bernie is my least favorite of the major candidates.

Mayor Pete was my #2 choice.

I care more about whether a President is competent and can get stuff done than about Right/Left.

To listen to the pundits, a Warren/Buttigeg voter makes no sense. But, to me, it always made perfect sense.

People are weird and complicated. Voting people are no different.

My order of preference was a mixture of left/moderate people from top to bottom...

Booker
Harris
Warren
Beto
Biden
Klobuchar
Yang
Buttigieg
Sanders
Bloomberg
Gabbard

So I'll be one of the Warren voters who goes to Biden rather than Sanders.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

So I'll be one of the Warren voters who goes to Biden rather than Sanders.

Same. I also have Booker above Biden, but I have Biden ahead of Sanders.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

The ones who have left (at least recently) are ALL on the sidelines. They have 'suspended' their campaigns.

Got it. So all could be nominated with super delegates in a second round? Including Gabbard, Harris, Clinton?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

A very good Vox article on Sanders:

Sanders vs. Biden: You can’t lead a party you loathe - Vox

No surprise in treating the Democratic party in contempt.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/phot...n-vermont.html

In particular, Clinton says Sanders didn’t start working until he was in his 40s.

″[Sanders] was a career politician. He didn’t work until he was 41 and then he got elected to something.
:
:
What’s more, Sanders says on the resume that he was the first “socialist” to receive 15% of the vote in the Vermont gubernatorial race.

On the last page of his resume, Sanders summarizes his accomplishments in bullet points, from being the “only socialist mayor” in the United States to being the only mayor “supported by third-party progressive movement against Democratic and Republican opposition.”

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by panerd

Got it. So all could be nominated with super delegates in a second round? Including Gabbard, Harris, Clinton?

What’s the deal with a contested convention, anyway? - POLITICO

Possibly, but super delegates alone can't outdo pledged delegates, so you'd need some of the candidates to release their pledged delegates to vote for someone else (pledged delegates can generally do what they want, but tend to be very very loyal to their candidate).

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Galaril

In a statement announcing that he is ending his presidential bid, former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg said that he is endorsing Joe Biden for president.

I always felt that Bloomberg's entry was just a hedge when Biden was taking a beating. He didn't want Bernie to win and once it became clear Biden was a good option, he would drop out. But, if Biden kept stumbling around, Bloomberg would be there to pick up the pieces.

As to Sanders, I feel like a broken record but young people just don't vote (esp in primaries). Biden strategically used endorsements to help create a great coalition of likely voters: suburban women, working class white guys and older African Americans.

Originally Posted by Ryche

Can't tell you how much I like having my ballot mailed to me and then dropped off at a ballot box.

This 100%. I have my ballot on my dining room table and waited to fill it out on Super Tuesday. My plan when I got it last week was to go either Biden or Warren (based on who I thought had a better chance to beat Bernie). So, this morning I filled it out for Biden and will drop it off tomorrow morning at a mail drop. As long as it is postmarked by next week, it will count in the early balloting for the AZ primary on 3/17.

I know you have to setup online that you want a mail-in ballot, but the state democratic party should really makes steps to get more people those ballots. It's such an easier process (even if you just drop it off on election day). You pretty much eliminate any aspect of voter suppression, intimidation or bottle-necked lines by avoiding the polling stations all together.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

So I'll be one of the Warren voters who goes to Biden rather than Sanders.

Same here as well

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I'm not certain Warren endorses Bernie. She may sit on the sidelines. I think only 1/2 to 2/3 of her support goes to Bernie. There are a lot of pissed off Warren supporters due to the constant calls for her to drop out from Bernie folks.

Bernie supporters constantly called her a snake, and a Republican. Yeah, she is not endorsing Sanders. She might not endorse Biden, but then she did endorse Hillary 4 years ago.

[Kodos]

My path was Harris --> Buttigieg --> Biden.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Their supporters may cross each other off but Bloomberg's resources will certainly help Biden (but not sure how this will work with campaign finance laws).

Which makes me wonder - if Bloomberg can successfully help out Biden with his $ and resources, what would stop future elections to be "helped" by billionaires who have too much money. I would think $1B to the Koch organization is not a big deal if they can put in a friendly candidate in the WH.

Have you not been watching the past several election cycles?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Have you not been watching the past several election cycles?

I was referring to Presidential race vs influencing congressional elections & PAC's. How much did they spend to get Trump elected?

[albionmoonlight]

Also, this probably isn't the most important thing going on right now, but I'm really starting to worry about my shares of Tim Kaine to win the nomination that I bought years ago for 11 cents on PredictIt.

[Kodos]

Stay the course!

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I was referring to Presidential race vs influencing congressional elections & PAC's. How much did they spend to get Trump elected?

In the 2016 general election, hundreds of millions. A lot of billionaire donations aren't disclosed, so it's hard to know for sure but Adelson and the Mercers spent huge money on Trump.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

That's somewhat their own fault. Some polls places have been open all weekend. I waited 3 minutes at mine and that was because the people working it were sloooow

It shouldn't take you 6 hours to vote anywhere. I don't care if it's open on the weekends. It's an act of voter suppression to make it much harder to vote than others. This probably depressed Biden's margin in Texas a lot.

Also if people in those areas started voting early like you suggest, they would just eliminate those days. Or not allow it to be hosted in that area.

I should also add if you voted early there is a chance you voted for a candidate who dropped out before the election.