Werewolf XX - Of Demons and Elementals (Humans Win!)

[path12]

Originally Posted by dacman

Emphasis added...I was under the assumption we are all soldiers -- some just happen to be under demonic control. I didn't read a thing into Schmidty's sword/sheild. If there is a bodyguard or similar role, that person is probably still alive.

This is what I thought also. If there's a bodyguard, chances are he's still here.

And: I am not a demon on day 2.

[Poli]

I am not a demon on day 2.

Barkeep, anyone: Got a list of people that said "I am not a demon on day 1"?

[hoopsguy]

I wasn't on the list for Day 1.

I said on Day 0 that I was a human and I'll state now that I remain a human working towards a human victory (no turncoat or any other role that would hurt our cause).

[dacman]

I'm not sold on this idea, but since everyone else is doing it:

I am not a demon on day 2

[hoopsguy]

Coffee, are the elementals aware of what kind of favors they can grant?

For example, if I was an elemental one example of a favor would be the ability to grant the demons the power to delude the seer for one night if they select the right sacrifice, would I know that was one of my powers? Or would the favor be a surprise to me when night actions roll around?

Just trying to get a bead on what level of control the elementals have in determining our fate - if their favors are essentially random events or if there is a guiding hand in delivering the favor.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Coffee, are the elementals aware of what kind of favors they can grant?

For example, if I was an elemental one example of a favor would be the ability to grant the demons the power to delude the seer for one night if they select the right sacrifice, would I know that was one of my powers? Or would the favor be a surprise to me when night actions roll around?

Just trying to get a bead on what level of control the elementals have in determining our fate - if their favors are essentially random events or if there is a guiding hand in delivering the favor.

They do not control what they can do. It's selected randomly from a list. They know exactly what happens once it IS selected, that is all.

[hoopsguy]

Also, I'm trying to figure out what the down side is for the elementals to just declaring their nature at this point in the game. I suppose I can't really make an intelligent argument on this without understanding their victory conditions.

Hopefully people don't view this as some kind of "out the seer" play here. I don't know if a elemental reveal would necessarily be pro/anti-human. But I figured I would raise this idea to see what other people may think about this.

[Poli]

Demons suck. That is all.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

They do not control what they can do. It's selected randomly from a list. They know exactly what happens once it IS selected, that is all.

That sounds encouraging. So, there's a good chance someone might know who a demon is?

Oh, and I am not a demon on Day 2.

[TazFTW]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Hopefully people don't view this as some kind of "out the seer" play here. I don't know if a elemental reveal would necessarily be pro/anti-human. But I figured I would raise this idea to see what other people may think about this.

Anti-human. Elementals don't count as humans. Having the demons know who are the elementals mean they can pick off known human targets (I'm assuming the demons know each other) to get the 1:1 ratio.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by dacman

I'm not sold on this idea, but since everyone else is doing it:

I am not a demon on day 2

I agree too, but it it helps I guess do it and go with the flow

I'm not a demon on day 2

[hoopsguy]

Good thought, Taz. Thanks.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

That sounds encouraging. So, there's a good chance someone might know who a demon is?

Oh, and I am not a demon on Day 2.

After two night actions? I doubt it.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

It is quiet. Too quiet. Many of you have trouble sleeping, wondering just what will happen tonight. Around midnight, all hell breaks loose. You hear a great crash, splintered wood, grunts, thuds, and the sound of blades being crossed. A brief flash of light later, and all silent. Sprinting out into the courtyard, you see...nothing. Every man who went to bed is up and about. No deaths, no wounds, nothing. All is well with the night.

I think someone out there knows something. Surely a villager or an elemental was attacked last night. Someone has to know something.

If not, I'm voting hoopsguy. Call it what you will, hoops, but asking the elementals to out themselves and therefore let the numbers be easier for the demons sounds bad. Especially for someone who I'd expect to think out a scenario like that.

The brief flash of light has me thinking the elementals were involved somehow last night, though obviously we don't have the corresponding elemental reveal.

[Poli]

Might as well make it official. I can't dance and it's too wet to plow.

Vote Hoopsguy

[Poli]

Taz moves into my circle of trust as well.

[hoopsguy]

I didn't ask the elementals to out themselves. I was looking for some discussion on the merits of having this knowledge out there.

One scenario that I worried about this was a fake elemental play by someone, thinking that it would keep people from calling their bluff since it takes two attempts to kill the elemental - the first one is wasted proving/invalidating the claim. I was fixating on this and had missed on the 1:1 ratio aspect. I'm glad that Taz pointed this out. It is a good step for him to begin moving towards my initial circle of trust.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I didn't ask the elementals to out themselves. I was looking for some discussion on the merits of having this knowledge out there.

One scenario that I worried about this was a fake elemental play by someone, thinking that it would keep people from calling their bluff since it takes two attempts to kill the elemental - the first one is wasted proving/invalidating the claim. I was fixating on this and had missed on the 1:1 ratio aspect. I'm glad that Taz pointed this out. It is a good step for him to begin moving towards my initial circle of trust.

Good counter, but my vote will remain for now.

[hoopsguy]

Might as well make it official. I can't dance and it's too wet to plow.

Ardent, can you tell me what you are getting at here? We had a conflict a couple of games ago where you had been the seer and had fingered me as a wolf. I fought to stay alive there because it was in my role.

I know that you have not somehow spotted me this game as a demon because I'm not a demon. So if you are working off the elemental conversation piece, I would ask you to be open to other ideas throughout the course of the day. Because that would be good for the humans. Two humans accusing each other is definitely not good for the village. And I'm not accusing you right now because so far you haven't given me reason to think that you are making a demon move against me.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Ardent, can you tell me what you are getting at here? We had a conflict a couple of games ago where you had been the seer and had fingered me as a wolf. I fought to stay alive there because it was in my role.

I know that you have not somehow spotted me this game as a demon because I'm not a demon. So if you are working off the elemental conversation piece, I would ask you to be open to other ideas throughout the course of the day. Because that would be good for the humans. Two humans accusing each other is definitely not good for the village. And I'm not accusing you right now because so far you haven't given me reason to think that you are making a demon move against me.

I will be open to other ideas. Edit to add: Nothing negative about/from past games at all.

[saldana]

ok, i will start with this

I am not a demon on day 2

second, i am not sure what to make of last night, the demons would have had to get really lucky to make a conversion on their first attempt...i would lean more towards a blessed or a successful move by the guard.

as far as who my suspicions were on earlier. i have a very strong feeling about WVUfan, and here is why....he lived through the entire game last time around(as a wolf)and saw first hand what kind of a player blade is, so why then, if he is a human this time, would he start out with a vote for blade? the only thing i can think of is that he saw a nice bandwagon run in that game and was hoping to get rid of blade early in a very innocuous manner.

[saldana]

dola, and after he made his blade vote, he hasnt been heard from at all...he did a damn good job of laying low last game, so i would expect him to use the same strategy

[Grammaticus]

I too think stating you are not a demon is not something that is going to help us as humans. I mean, it screwed the crap out of us the last game. That said as it is the course we are taking

I am not a demon on day 2.

Does anyone think that an elemental was targeted last night? In order to kill them, they have to be lynched/night killed twice, right? The setup said they are revealed, but it is not clear if that is to the side that made the attempt or to both sides. Is it possible the demons now know who an elemental is, but we do not?

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Taz moves into my circle of trust as well.

Why is Taz in your circle of trust?

[WVUFAN]

Originally Posted by saldana

as far as who my suspicions were on earlier. i have a very strong feeling about WVUfan, and here is why....he lived through the entire game last time around(as a wolf)and saw first hand what kind of a player blade is, so why then, if he is a human this time, would he start out with a vote for blade? the only thing i can think of is that he saw a nice bandwagon run in that game and was hoping to get rid of blade early in a very innocuous manner.

Very clever of you, twisting my random vote into something of substance. Just like a demon would do. As I said before, crafty = evil = demon. Therefore, you are a demon. A clever, evil demon! oints finger at Saldana:

As for the last game, I lived because the other wolves protected me, since I was a newbie. If I remember correctly, you were the one who came up with the idea of me being quiet. :-)

I'm quiet now because I'm trying to recover from Christmas.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

Does anyone think that an elemental was targeted last night? In order to kill them, they have to be lynched/night killed twice, right? The setup said they are revealed, but it is not clear if that is to the side that made the attempt or to both sides.

This I can clarify. When an elemental is targeted for lynching or night kill, he is revealed to everyone. Sorry if it was unclear in the rules.

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

This I can clarify. When an elemental is targeted for lynching or night kill, he is revealed to everyone. Sorry if it was unclear in the rules.

Oh I see, thanks. Well I guess since we do not see an obvious elemental walking around pissed off, then a night kill must not have hit an elemental. So much for that thought process.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Grammaticus

Why is Taz in your circle of trust?

He debunked any thought of the elementals revealing themselves.

Common sense would be that the elementals nor the villagers want this.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by WVUFAN

Very clever of you, twisting my random vote into something of substance. Just like a demon would do. As I said before, crafty = evil = demon. Therefore, you are a demon. A clever, evil demon! oints finger at Saldana:

As for the last game, I lived because the other wolves protected me, since I was a newbie. If I remember correctly, you were the one who came up with the idea of me being quiet. :-)

I'm quiet now because I'm trying to recover from Christmas.

totally random is one thing, but even when i make a "random" pick, i dont actually make it random, there are certain players that i dont include in my random selections because of their obvious ability in the game.

and itwas my idea for you to be as quiet as possible last game, which is exactly why i think you are doing it again.

[hoopsguy]

We have heard very little from Dubb so far this game. I'm interested to hear what he has to say about the last day or so. Not necessarily from a suspicious point of view, but with the idea that this guy pretty consistently has a good feel for the game. Ideally I like to see those players being more active ...

[hoopsguy]

From Coffee Warlord - post #286

You hear a great crash, splintered wood, grunts, thuds, and the sound of blades being crossed. A brief flash of light later, and all silent. Sprinting out into the courtyard, you see...nothing. Every man who went to bed is up and about. No deaths, no wounds, nothing. All is well with the night.

I'm with Ardent that someone has to know something - this conflict screams demon/villager conflict to me. If it wasn't a case of a bodyguard or a blessed saving someone then perhaps the flash of light indicates a favor being invoked to prevent a slaying? Courtesy of a yak or goat?

What are the chances that it has something to do with the Thor story from earlier?

[Coffee Warlord]

Marking my count position before I pack it in for the night. Real tough count thus far.

1 - hoopsguy

I for one welcome our trout overlords.

[Poli]

Quit being cryptic. Tell us who the demons are!

[Blade6119]

VOTE HOOPSGUY

While WVU is suspicious(for all the reasons saldana stated and the fact he pops in magically right after being accused), hoops gets this vote for past games. In the same game ardent fingered you as a wolf when he was seer, you had earlier made exactly the same move....a VERY subtle push for key villager roles to out themselves or hint at their roles...i quited it and added you to my suspicous list. Ardent later re-quoted it and backed it uip with his viewing. Your play has been quite similar to that, and that push sounds exactly the same as the other game...you even responded to my call out on it the same way you did ardents call out....sorry buddy, you know its not personal. Just how my current view stands.

[Blade6119]

As for the night, id say bodyguard or favor....if bodyguard, villager wouldnt know and bodyguard shouldnt say unless he knows they know his identity(which doesnt happen)....if favor, just be happy.

As for schmidty, id say its just his role, but more so then the sword catching my eye was the fact that the sword was bloody. He might have been a vendetta role where once a game they can make a night kill

[Blade6119]

A list of my suspects(1-2 in order...after that their equal):

1.Hoopsguy
2.WVUFAN
3.King(usually quiet though, but last game taught me not to ignore that)
3.Gramat(hes comments about night kill felt like he was feeling out a villager role...not sure if for good or bad)
3.Pass(he has been quiet, whether he admits it or not)
3.Dacman(got a fair amount of votes tossed his way before the vote switched to schmidty...since im a villager its possible they did it to save dacman and not myself.

[saldana]

blade, i like your top two, but i think you are missing one person that i have been suspecting quite a bit in St Cronin...he has been in the past few games and knows that we all generally get suspicious of people that are quiet at the beginning...he has been extremely active in posting thus far this game, but none of the things he is posting is actually any amount of analysis, just spurious comments on other peoples analysis...add to that the vote he put on you to create a tie on day one (not a thing that i see as making alot of sense) and unvoted hoops in the process.

[saldana]

dola, i have some other reasons for suspecting wvu and st cronin that i will explain in the morning..i dont want to post it now when there are only a couple people on the board and risk people not seeing it.

[hoopsguy]

Blade, I generally try to make adjustments from game to game rather than re-hashing the same style of play from earlier efforts. Particularly games that I've found myself lynched.

Also in that game, AE knew I was a wolf from Day 1 and was trying to trap me. I am positive that he has not viewed me as a demon this game. My role does not, in any way, allow for me to be viewed in this sense, unless I am drastically missing something in the rule set.

In terms of the elemental question - I have a strong inkling of one player as an elemental. I could be wrong, but I don't want to throw that out there on the board if it is helping demons more than villagers. If I had realized that I would immediately attract votes from asking the question then I would have mulled over the idea more on my own first.

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

A list of my suspects(1-2 in order...after that their equal):

1.Hoopsguy
2.WVUFAN
3.King(usually quiet though, but last game taught me not to ignore that)
3.Gramat(hes comments about night kill felt like he was feeling out a villager role...not sure if for good or bad)
3.Pass(he has been quiet, whether he admits it or not)
3.Dacman(got a fair amount of votes tossed his way before the vote switched to schmidty...since im a villager its possible they did it to save dacman and not myself.

Well, I don’t know much about hoopsguy or where you are going there. I do know that WVU and Dacman are floating under the radar. While Dacman was on the block yesterday, there was certainly a move to shift away from him. And it seems like it may have been under cover of the “I don’t want to start a pile on” comments. Makes me put Ardent in there with WVU and Dacman as suspicious. It is also of note that once the heat was up on Dacman and Blade, King started the shift to Scmit and after Blade, Path secured the deal. Wondering if it may have been a move to protect Dacman or Blade. Or really just a move to cancel out the guy who checked out of the game.

Blade as for my night kill comments, are you talking about the “should the bad guys make a kill” or the possibility of an elemental? I think the note about Thor is a clue on coming back into the game, and am thinking that one through.

Honestly, I really don’t see anything right now.

[dubb93]

VOTE BLADE

He was my suspect from main suspect yesterday, and I don't like his play today. It's too early to take a shot at hoops. He is too good when he is a villager. I don't see any overwhelming evidence against him at this point, so it makes no sense to go after him.

Blade has not given me a good feeling thus far this game. I'm getting a very bad feeling from him.

[Passacaglia]

I'm really not sure what to think on this one. In defense of hoopsguy, I don't think the elementals are on our side. However, I think it helps the wolves to sniff out the elementals, since the elementals don't count as humans -- that means the wolves really know who to avoid killing. On the other hand, hoops just brought up the idea for discussion. But maybe Blade is right, that hoops was subtly trying to get us to reveal something we shouldn't.

This is a tough call.

[hoopsguy]

Pass, I can be subtle but I'm not repetitive. I was trying to determine how far I wanted to chase a hunch on someone being an elemental, as I ended up explaining in post #339. But after WVUFAN responded to my question, it became clear that one of two things happen if I post that "Player X is an elemental, and here is why"
1.) I'm wrong and generate a lot of discussion going down a wrong path (likelihood - maybe 30%, I'm pretty confident in my gut here)
2.) I'm right and help the wolves avoid attacking this guy, lose one of their nightly meals as they learn he is an elemental, while making the remaining villagers more likely to die.

It just stinks thinking that I picked up on something and having nowhere to go with that information. Being accused of being a wolf on top of that is adding insult to injury, but I guess I understand the thought process behind the accusation. It's wrong, but I understand it.

[Barkeep49]

Hoops was on my list from day 1 for his reasoning for voting for dac. He claimed he wanted to turn up the heat on him. At the time Dac already had 3 votes and was the leading vot getter. Sure seems to me the heat was already on Dac and this seemed like a fancy explanation for a bandwagon vote. That said I'm not quite ready to vote for him yet.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, going back to your post #237 I was the 4th vote on Dacman. Blade had 2 votes. Here is why I wanted to turn up the heat on Dacman:
- I had no reason to believe that Blade was a demon
- I've played many times with Blade and few times (think this is 1st time) with Dacman
- Blade tends to attract early votes in these games
- I have played enough with Blade to think that I will have a better chance of picking him out as a demon across his large number of posts than Dacman's smaller number of posts, given enough time

So I didn't want to see Blade lynched on a random Day 1 vote.

Also, I had hoped that Dacman being under some pressure would compel him to post in his defense. Just as I'm doing at this point as I feel that I'm under some suspicion.

It isn't a bad thing to be under some suspicion when you are a human - if you are able to clear yourself (to some extent) early it allows you to exercise more influence later in the game, role or no role. But obviously it is bad to attract enough suspicion that you are wrongly hung. I'm going to try very hard to avoid that outcome today and in any coming days because my death is bad for the humans and takes me away from what I think will be a fun game.

[dacman]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

....I am positive that he has not viewed me as a demon this game. My role does not, in any way, allow for me to be viewed in this sense, unless I am drastically missing something in the rule set...

I don't see anything in the rules that say anything about someone not being able to be viewed. I need an explanation.

[hoopsguy]

Explanation - I'm not a demon and there is nothing in my role that suggests any kind of potential for confusion on the issue.

[Coffee Warlord]

As for the plan over the holiday...I'll process the day vote, hopefully get a night action in, and then extend the next day's vote to either morning or evening of the 2nd. We'll play it by ear.

[Barkeep49]

Holiday plan sounds good. And case any of you are wondering I am not a demon on Day 2.

[dacman]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Explanation - I'm not a demon and there is nothing in my role that suggests any kind of potential for confusion on the issue.

That explanation is...odd. I have never heard of a role that would allow a human/villager to be seen as a werewolf/demon. Maybe someone with more experience could weigh in on if that's correct or not.

Eschew obfuscation. We're already working with incomplete information, and now you're throwing around all kinds of speculation by making statements like you think you know who an elemental is or the previous statement I posted, but won't say anything definative. I find that highly suspicious.