WW CXLVIII - Ancient Infection - EVIL WINS!

[Danny]

Lynching Chief is the right option, it if turns out he is nurse, oh well, but he had to go

[GoldenEagle]

I would like to hear the n0 scan before voting nightfall.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

I would like to hear the n0 scan before voting nightfall.

Cause you want to hurt the village?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Zinto

And if he is just an infected bhlloy gets another scan in, which could get us another hit on a baddie.

If he is just an infected, you guys were silly again to vote nightfall since he could have been cured. Really, jumping to nightfall inside of an hour after the night phase ended was all around silly, no matter who I am. You all should have waited for me to return.

[Passacaglia]

ooh...wag of the finger from the bad guy!

[Zinto]

I guess we could have given you another day because I just reread the rules and the cure takes place before the nightkill but I have a hard time seeing a scenario where our doctor does not reveal and you survive more than a couple more days.

[Zinto]

Plus, infected or not, you are going to claim infected.

[Passacaglia]

From a probability standpoint, I don't see why we would have gone anywhere else but Chief.

25% chance he's the mummy
50% chance he's a transformed
25% chance he's infected

And within that infected bit, it's probably a less than 5% chance he's a nurse. Does anyone really think it would have a good idea to believe him if he says he was a nurse, try to cure him, and follow all the nonsense (potentially including reveals) to verify that it's been done? This is a rhetorical question, the answer is obviously that none of you do.

[Danny]

Well actually

20% mummy
20% cultist
40% transformed
20% infected

[Simbo Klice]

In my opinion it would have been too risky to not lynch him- pretty much every Evil we turn up is going to claim they're infected, this early we can prevent a NK even if that's all he is, and if he's lying and we try to cure instead of lynching, it means a kill.

[Danny]

We had to lynch him no ifs ands or butts. 20% chance he is what he claims, but his claim is worthless as everyone would claim the same. I dont think he's the infected.

[Passacaglia]

Thanks, Danny -- the idea of the cultist scanning as evil seems weird to me, but I guess the rules call him evil. So, yeah, even less chance he's an infected nurse if you look at it that way.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

I would like to hear the n0 scan before voting nightfall.

If you can come up with any reason other than the fact this would help the wolves, I'll tell you

[Narcizo]

Well what am I supposed to do now chaps? Golden says that he wants to hear the d0 scan before he nightfalls, for reasons best known to himself.

I tempted to make you all wait until tonight (your time).

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by Danny

Well actually

20% mummy
20% cultist
40% transformed
20% infected

Factoring in the chance of a failed bite and an immediate cure, we get:

21.35% Mummy
21.35% Cultist
42.70% Transformed
14.60% Infected

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Simbo Klice

Factoring in the chance of a failed bite and an immediate cure, we get:

21.35% Mummy
21.35% Cultist
42.70% Transformed
14.60% Infected

Oh, fancy smancy

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

If you can come up with any reason other than the fact this would help the wolves, I'll tell you

Actually it's just come to me. I guess so the other professor doesn't scan the same person. Kinda makes sense actually.

Ugh! I'm thinking I'm going to sit on my nightfall and let you guys sort things out in time for the real deadline.

[Danny]

Actually thats true, good reason! I hope GE didnt just out himself.

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by Danny

Oh, fancy smancy

I know it's mostly small potatoes, but it does show that there's more than a 5% less chance that he's infected than the casual math would.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Actually it's just come to me. I guess so the other professor doesn't scan the same person. Kinda makes sense actually.

Ugh! I'm thinking I'm going to sit on my nightfall and let you guys sort things out in time for the real deadline.

Fine by me. I'd rather be sure of having bh's scan than have an extra 6 hours to discuss the next day.

[GoldenEagle]

I am not the other seer, but I do think the info could be helpful.

[Narcizo]

Yeah. I'll not nightfall then. Yaw'l just have to wait for your results. I think as many people as poss might want to discuss the ins and outs of what bhlloy should reveal, although the final decision is his, obviously. I'm leaning towards a full reveal of n0 scan and who he plans to scan tonight but I haven't given it a huge amount of thought.

Just to reiterate - catching infected/cultist is a bonus but our main aim has to be to get the transformers and find the Mummy.

[Chief Rum]

Not saying you all wouldn't still lynch me, but you all threw out your nightfalls within an hour or some. I think when I logged back in, I already had like 8 or 9 Vote Chiefs and Vote Nightfalls. Sure, you might have ended up lynching me anyway, but it was rather short-sighted of you early voters to not wait to hear from me before casting your votes. You had 24 hours. Did you really need to vote in the first 60 minutes?

[bhlloy]

I'm pretty skeptical that the chance of the other professor double scanning is worth giving out the info early but let me know what you guys think. Even in the unlucky case of a double scan, it would still be somewhat worthwhile as a guy who has been cleared on n0 might no longer be cleared on n2

On the other hand, if we strictly look at it as we are trying to catch the 3 evils who count, it doesn't make a damn bit of difference when I reveal the info and if/when the name I name is converted. So those are my two conflicting viewpoints here. Thoughts?

[bhlloy]

And yes CR, we should have given you the chance to at least speak. I don't think it would have changed the outcome but it still would have made sense

[Danny]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

And yes CR, we should have given you the chance to at least speak. I don't think it would have changed the outcome but it still would have made sense

Nothing he said could have possibly changed my vote as a villager. As his lover yes, but not as a villager.

[Danny]

my money is on us getting an infected

[Danny]

oops i mean transformed

[bhlloy]

Danny what is your thought on revealing my n0 scan

[Danny]

I think our first priority is finding the original three evil, so I think it is worth it to make sure the other professor doesn't scan a repeat who is guaranteed not to be one of the original three.

[Danny]

and really there is nothing stopping the scanned person from being infected one night later if we wait, so its not a huge difference.

[Danny]

and if Chief is transformed, they cant infect someone tonight anyway

[bhlloy]

Ok cool. It was you. Surprise

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

and if Chief is transformed, they cant infect someone tonight anyway

Sure they could. There are two Transformed.

[bhlloy]

For anyone who wants to know why I was so pro-Danny day 1 that is why. Usually he annoys the shit out of me when he plays that kind of a game

[Danny]

"The bite will not be successful if a Transformed has been lynched this day"

[Danny]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Ok cool. It was you. Surprise

yeah I basically knew

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

"The bite will not be successful if a Transformed has been lynched this day"

Ah I missed that. I guess we won't get an Infected today then.

[bhlloy]

Hmmm interesting. Pourqois?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Hmmm interesting. Pourqois?

Tranformed don't get to Infect anyone the day one of them is lynched.

[GoldenEagle]

VOTE CR
VOTE NIGHTFALL

[bhlloy]

No, I meant why did Danny know I knew he knew we all knew

Assuming telling me that won't give anything else away, I trust Danny is smart enough to do that

[Danny]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

No, I meant why did Danny know I knew he knew we all knew

Assuming telling me that won't give anything else away, I trust Danny is smart enough to do that

Because of how you reacted to me day 1 and then specifically asking me what I thought about whether or not you should reveal.

[Darth Vilus]

So who are we missing still?

[Danny]

I think Darth is a good scan target FWIW

[Darth Vilus]

based on what?

[Darth Vilus]

what evidence can you possibly have lol

[Darth Vilus]

That would warrant me as a scan target

[Danny]

My evidence requires me opening up my stomach and showing you my gut

[Danny]

Well actually its just there to see anyway, so I dont have to open up my stomach