Werewolf XXXIII: Animal Farm (SEE POST #4 FOR ALL UPDATES) - Page 16

Chubby · 09-13-2006, 08:09 PM

bek - with path not online it might be a good idea to show BrianD as evil if you have evidence without a role reveal. It might convince the tiebreak-ee.

Blade6119 · 09-13-2006, 08:10 PM

I got back too late, but there is no way i would have swapped to bek. I have no idea how he is up over others who have missed votes or been quieter. Just wrong

Chubby · 09-13-2006, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Chubby, that person is trusted because they exercised the Duke option after they lost the tie-breaker. Not because of us arriving at a tie.

And if he had used the duke in another scenario (one that he wasn't involved in) there's no way he could use that to prove himself to be on our side.

hoopsguy · 09-13-2006, 08:14 PM

Chubby, of course he could have. The duke role is a revealed good in the role descriptions. So by the very act of exercising the role he proved himself - he did not have to exercise it to save his life in order to prove his allegiance.

Chubby · 09-13-2006, 08:16 PM

hoops - the fact remains that no information comes out with a death. we don't have anything to go on with either of the leading candidates, what purpose is there to just randomly vote someone at this point? a tie can and hopefully will bring out information to help the barnyard animals.

Bek · 09-13-2006, 08:20 PM

where is path....im dying here of anxiety....i cant hadle it

Lorena · 09-13-2006, 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

I have a little bit of catching up to do. I've been quiet for the same reason Greyroofoo has been quiet, it's just difficult to form an opinion when roles aren't revealed upon death and we can't really go off of anything but voting patterns.

I don't want you all to think that I'm evil just because I don't say anything, so if ya want something, fine. I'll just throw something out there:

Well let's see... Today is Day 3 so that means Snowball, Clover and Moses have scanned a total of 6 people (?). Chances are more than 1 person got scanned twice... What are the odds that one of these people is evil? Probably close to nothing unless they got lucky.

I'll have to agree with Blade and wait, there's not much info to go on. But now that it's being thrown out there, I wouldn't be suprised if Swaggs dies tomorrow morning.

Still catching up but in the meantime:

Vote GoldenEagle

He seems to be piling on (bullet yesterday and Grey today) so I'm going with that. Not only that, bullet died because someone changed their vote to save GE.

I didn't give this a lot of thought and rushed through it as the voting deadline got closer. Does this make sense or am I talking out of my ass?

hoopsguy · 09-13-2006, 08:23 PM

Well, the problem is that the Revolutionaries and Pilkerton both have more information at the moment than we do. So if one of our adversaries control the vote there is a better chance for them to advance their cause with the vote than for us to help ours.

Lets make some assumptions:
2 Revolutionaries
1 Pilkerton
1 Evil Seer
1 Sympathizer

The revolutionaries know the identity of their teammate and the sympathizer. With fifteen players left, they are only worried about hitting Pilkerton or the Evil Seer. So they automatically save one of their own and have a 1 in 6 chance of hitting one of their own in a random vote between villagers (15 people left, won't hit themselves or the Sympathizer).

Pilkerton - knows one of the Revolutionaries. So he has better information than anyone who isn't a seer for the good guys.

Evil Seer - either knows the seer or people who are not the seer. So he can fire a vote at the seer if he identified him or take a shot at the seer by ignoring someone in a tie he has identified.

Random good guy - doesn't really matter if we have two good guys in a tie, just hope he lucks into selecting one without a role. But has less role information than all of the bad guys to factor into the decision - more likely to be a 50/50 call.

Good seer - best case scenario for farm guys, as he may have viewed one of the people in the tie.

Bek · 09-13-2006, 08:27 PM

wow...lots of people on

Bek · 09-13-2006, 08:28 PM

im I considered in limbo...can i still discuss things???

Swaggs · 09-13-2006, 08:29 PM

I really don't feel good about how the final hour shook out.

Chubby · 09-13-2006, 08:30 PM

bek - you're not dead so you're more than welcome to discuss things as far as I understand the rules

Swaggs · 09-13-2006, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bek

im I considered in limbo...can i still discuss things???

I'd spit things out in a hurry.

The tiebreaker is probably on, hoping to have a reason to choose between you two.

hoopsguy · 09-13-2006, 08:33 PM

DC, for whatever it is worth the vote certainly doesn't help refute the idea that you are "throwing away your vote".

As far as the scans, the math would argue that the chances of catching a bad guy are not "close to nothing".

Seer:
Night 1 - won't view Swaggs or self, can't view dead guy. If Cronin was good then we have 3+ people he can view out of 17.
Night 2 - still won't view Swaggs or self, can't view Cronin, Saldana, or Bullet. If we have failed in killing a bad guy by now then 3/15.

14/17 * 12/15 = about 65% chance they have not found one of three bad guys.

I don't think they can see the Sympathizer, but if they (will look it up after finishing this post) then 13/17 * 11/15 = 56% not find = 44% chance of finding

You can run similar numbers for each of the guys who view the dead.

We had bad luck if the seer viewed Saldana on Night 1. If they viewed Bullet then they did a nice job shaping the vote on Day 2.

We had bad luck if the seer viewed Lathum on Night 2. If they viewed Bek or Grey then I wish they had exerted more influence today.

The chances for overlap are less in this game since the day kill and night kill role reveals cannot overlap.

Blade6119 · 09-13-2006, 08:40 PM

Bek 41
path12 40
Dodgerchick 29
Passacaglia 28
bulletsponge 23
saldana 23
RealDeal 22
Lathum 21
Chubby 19
ardent enthusiast 18
GoldenEagle 16
Greyroofoo 12
Conflaguration 12
Grammaticus 9

All the people who have posted less then bek...ya, hes been real quiet...

Abe Sargent · 09-13-2006, 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bek

where is path....im dying here of anxiety....i cant hadle it

Better ways to phrase that

hoopsguy · 09-13-2006, 08:46 PM

Blade, in regards to Bek's posts:
1.) They went up a lot during your chats with him that were not game related
2.) They went up a lot after he took the lead in voting this evening

It is very possible that I pushed on the wrong person today, but I had not fully bought into your argument on Grey and I put my vote in another direction. Pushing people to take part in the game through accusation is a proven tactic in the game, even though it is no fun being on the business end of it.

Abe Sargent · 09-13-2006, 08:49 PM

And something Blade does all the time

Blade6119 · 09-13-2006, 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Blade, in regards to Bek's posts:
1.) They went up a lot during your chats with him that were not game related
2.) They went up a lot after he took the lead in voting this evening

It is very possible that I pushed on the wrong person today, but I had not fully bought into your argument on Grey and I put my vote in another direction. Pushing people to take part in the game through accusation is a proven tactic in the game, even though it is no fun being on the business end of it.

If you want to count posts that actually are game related, i can go cut through just as many posts from those other players. Im sorry, but coming into today i had 2 suspects. 1 MUCH higher then any other, and a 2nd that was above the rest. Both of them ended up being the key reason a person i was beginning to trust is about to get lynched.

The fact you did all that pushing, only to swap off either lynch victim at the least second only amplifies my distrust. Your my 2 suspect, and i no longer trust a word you say. Alan is my #1. He was coming into today, then spent all day defending grey and attacking the very few people who i was starting to trust. He has been pushing for the seers to use their PM power already, which i vehemently oppose, and done everything but help the village. Tomorrow my vote goes on Alan. Ive been avoiding any and all mention of him for 2 days now so he wouldnt think i was on to him. I promised him i could find him a place in my theory, while all along he already had the lead role reserved.

Blade6119 · 09-13-2006, 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

. Pushing people to take part in the game through accusation is a proven tactic in the game, even though it is no fun being on the business end of it.

I agree quite strongly with this statement, but i think your choice of bek was for malevolent reasons. If you want to push people into taking part in the game, there were better targets. Hell, i was voting for someone who had been far less talkative.

I just think bek got railroaded becuase people wanted to vote for me and he happened to agree with my idea. Alan said as much...If you suspect me, vote for me. Dont go kill others just becuase they are willing to support my ideas.

path12 · 09-13-2006, 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I would also love to have an answer from Path to the question I posed on what happens if the PM target is night-killed (can they pick another person later or is the PM ability permanently lost).

Just catching up. Frankly, I didn't think of how to handle that. My feeling is that I would allow them to choose another target, but to be fair I think it would have to be another target that same day -- in other words, they couldn't just decide to use it at some future time when they have someone else to trust.

Blade6119 · 09-13-2006, 09:02 PM

Sorry if that comes across as angry, but it is. Lathum and Saldana dont get lynched for being friends. They regulary support each other in these games, so i think what happened to bek is just bs...killing him for being my friend, poor form.

Alan T · 09-13-2006, 09:10 PM

Glad to know that you have me distrusted Blade, because thats exactly where I have you. You have been throwing out harmful ideas for the village today, and i guess calling you on it puts me on your distrust list, perfectly fine with me.

Like I said earlier I would rather have voted for you, but there didn't seem enough backing. I also like how you say I protected Greyfooroo all day.. I don't know anything about him.. not sure where you got that from, other than just making it up.

The only thing I said about Greyfooroo was that 3 of the 4 most suspicious people in the game right now had their votes on him.. so something seemed really odd to me. I went with the best vote to keep you from doing harm in my eyes.

I hope you come after me tommorrow, thats fine, Im pretty sure unless we find out something more tonight, that my vote will be for you tommorrow anyways. Will make for a fun day

Alan T · 09-13-2006, 09:12 PM

Thats probably my biggest frustration so far this game.. you, Bek and earlier today BrianD enjoyed taking my words and saying I said things I completely didn't.

Either you all are not reading my posts and are good, or you're bad and purposely trying to stir the pot. My guess is the latter.

hoopsguy · 09-13-2006, 09:12 PM

Blade, I'm sorry if it pissed you off. I can understand being upset about it. But I have played a few games with the two of you and my perception (right or wrong) is that Bek tends to follow your lead in these games. For the reasons I outlined in the vote post, I consider this a risk.

I'm uneasy about you in this one, but I tend to be edgy about you until given a reason not to be - same holds true for a couple of other players. But if I have to choose who to play a game out to the end with, and the choices are you vs Bek I'm choosing you because you do play back and make the experience more fun for me. Right or wrong, with an absence of other information to factor into the decision today I considered this with my vote.

I also pulled my vote off Bek when I got the feeling he was being railroaded, despite the fact that he was not really able to respond with much to back his suspicions when pressed.

We'll sort out what was the right move, in the context of the game, soon enough. I hope this post helps explain my stance a little more for you, even if you do not like it.

hoopsguy · 09-13-2006, 09:13 PM

Alan - the name is Greyroofoo

Alan T · 09-13-2006, 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan - the name is Greyroofoo

Sorry.. Im horrible with his name and Bullet's name.. I always call him bulletproof

path12 · 09-13-2006, 09:15 PM

Alright, I show final vote as follows:

Bek 4 -- BrianD (602), Alan T (690), RealDeal (711), Greyroofoo (730)
Greyroofoo 4 -- Blade (603), GoldenEagle (630), Bek (633), Chubby (732)
Ardent 2 -- Grammaticus (634), hoopsguy (731)
Anxiety 2 -- Passacaglia (646), Swaggs (688)
Chubby 1 -- Anxiety (734)
GoldenEagle 1 -- Dodgerchick (716)

Results coming shortly. Thanks for your patience.

Blade6119 · 09-13-2006, 09:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Thats probably my biggest frustration so far this game.. you, Bek and earlier today BrianD enjoyed taking my words and saying I said things I completely didn't.

Either you all are not reading my posts and are good, or you're bad and purposely trying to stir the pot. My guess is the latter.

Alan, are you aware of the idea that people imply things in their posts? People say one thing, while meaning another? Almost every post i read from you was implying things i see as bad idea. If you think im trying to stir the pot, i damn well am now. I have been following you closely since late day 1. You have been my suspect since before the first lynch. Everything you have said reeks bad to me...i wish i was the assasin, but im not. Heres to hoping people stop believing your lies soon

Lorena · 09-13-2006, 09:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Blade, it takes awhile to change a rep. That said, I like you better when you are more active - it tends to lead to more creative collaboration when we are on the same team and when (more like a very big IF) I can finally earn your trust.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

I dont want to change my rep. I just want to live longer. Im just testing out different play styles to keep me alive long enough to enjoy the game. I dont have fun being killed in the first 3 days. Dont worry, ill be my regular self later in the game...im just trying to make it there first

I'll tell you guys what's really troubling me right now. Hoopsguy asked Blade to talk, so Blade did. (I guess he's playing a "different game" this time around) He voiced his opinion, wasn't popular, and Blade gets slammed. Bek goes to his defense, and he's the main target.

So let me get this straight, if people don't talk, they're suspects, if people talk, they're suspects.

It seems the same people get lynched/killed every single game from what I gather which isn't fair... at all. I get Saldana and Lathum are friends, as are Bek and Blade, but that is no reason for them to get voted off.

If I read something wrong and am making crazy accusations, please point me in the right direction. I honestly feel bad for Blade because no matter what he does, he can't win.

Player A: Blade, you're being quiet, please say something.

Blade goes against popular opinion.

Players ABC: Wrong answer... YOU'RE EVIL!

C'mon man.

path12 · 09-13-2006, 09:24 PM

Frustration started to set in today. Not much work was done. You are all busy casting about for any information you could possibly use to help stop the revolution and kill the evildoers, but the further you get along it seems like the less you know.

As on the first day, you ended up deadlocked. Greyroofoo and Bek were called to the front as the rest of the animals huddled to make a decision. After long discussion and argument, it was finally decided that Bek was a likely revolutionary, and he was promptly dispatched.

Walking back to the barns, some of you notice that there have been additional changes made to the commandments:

1. Whatever goes upon two legs is an enemy.
2. Whatever goes upon four legs, or has wings, is a friend.
3. No animal shall wear clothes.
4. No animal shall sleep in a bed with sheets.
5. No animal shall drink alcohol to excess.
6. No animal shall kill any other animal without cause.
7. All animals are equal.

You wonder what this means as you trudge back to your stalls for what will certainly be a restless night.

BEK HAS BEEN LYNCHED. NIGHT ACTIONS DUE 9AM EASTERN TOMORROW.

Alan T · 09-13-2006, 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Alan, are you aware of the idea that people imply things in their posts? People say one thing, while meaning another? Almost every post i read from you was implying things i see as bad idea. If you think im trying to stir the pot, i damn well am now. I have been following you closely since late day 1. You have been my suspect since before the first lynch. Everything you have said reeks bad to me...i wish i was the assasin, but im not. Heres to hoping people stop believing your lies soon

So you think its a bad idea to start a circle of trust in a way that doesn't reveal any of our important roles and doesn't reduce any of their effectiveness by utalizing the one 100% revealed person we have...

Ok understood

Alan T · 09-13-2006, 09:27 PM

Hmm here is an idea.. I noticed that one of the days (maybe yesterday with bullet?) we didnt have new rules posted.. maybe thats the way we know if they were g ood or bad when lynched... just a thought..

If thats the case then maybe we did get a bad guy yesterday

Greyroofoo · 09-13-2006, 09:28 PM

well right now there are 3 rules changed

Lorena · 09-13-2006, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Hmm here is an idea.. I noticed that one of the days (maybe yesterday with bullet?) we didnt have new rules posted.. maybe thats the way we know if they were g ood or bad when lynched... just a thought..

If thats the case then maybe we did get a bad guy yesterday

Twice the rules have been changed... are you suggesting we might have gotten 2 baddies?

I really hope so.

Lorena · 09-13-2006, 09:30 PM

Hmm... I wonder if it would be a good idea to reveal what type of barnyard animals we are. Maybe that'll lead us closer to the truth.

RealDeal · 09-13-2006, 09:31 PM

I voted for bek, but it kind of felt like "I voted for kodos". It seemed like the argument was against blade because he was opposed to the idea of moses/clover pming their info to swaggs. Now blade is just wrong by being against that idea. It makes no sense not to do this. But if that makes you suspicious, then the vote should have been for blade. I would have much rather voted for blade than bek, and I feel like people should cast votes that count and not cop out by casting a meaningless vote on someone who isn't a lynch candidate. So with my two bad choices I voted for bek.

To Dodgerchick, I think part of the issue with bek is that there is some history in previous WW games with bek/blade. They are buddies, as is no doubt clear, and they appear to kibbitz regularly outside of the game. There's nothing wrong with that, but it appears sometimes that in the game they don't really have distinctive voices. Also, there has been at least one instance where they were pming each other outside of the game, and then one of them revealed some info from the pm's in the WW thread. It was all really weird.

Like I said, I don't think that made bek any more or less viable than anyone else right now, considering we had no good options anyway. But it does provide some context as to why the vote went how it went.

Bek didn't really stick out to me as a prime lynch candidate, but neither does anyone else. This has just been three days of grabass so far.

hoopsguy · 09-13-2006, 09:44 PM

I did a little reading on Animal Farm at Wikipedia yesterday. The list of rules changed as Napoleon's group assumed greater control of the farm. It represented the new regime of farm animals becoming more like the humans that they replaced. So I do not think seeing new rules posted is good for the Farm.

Chubby · 09-13-2006, 09:49 PM

I'm going to guess that when the rules get changed, it's not a good thing for us barnyarders.

I think Bek was one of us good guys and with his death, things swung more towards the revolutionaries' side hence, the rules being changed.

We've learned that whoever had the tiebreak today was most likely evil and most likely voted for bek to begin with.

A hell of a lot more info than simply going with the lynchswing of "vote bek cause I said so and others did"...

hoopsguy · 09-13-2006, 09:49 PM

With that in mind, I would guess we made a good choice lynching Bulletsponge and the other two were poor selections.

Blade6119 · 09-13-2006, 09:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

So you think its a bad idea to start a circle of trust in a way that doesn't reveal any of our important roles and doesn't reduce any of their effectiveness by utalizing the one 100% revealed person we have...

Ok understood

I think one comment can start to form you a circle of trust, and a group of enemies. Its quite clear from his comments(1 in particular) we lost a major role today...good job guys, we just took a major shot to our victory chances...all in the name of unsportsmanlike play:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bek

i think it is useless for me to continue fighting...you have killed a villager tonight...i will come out with the information that i have at this point...

No way does a bad guy say that when hes down 3 votes when he posts(votes swapped in the same minute as his post, so i assume he started typing when those werent up). Especially not with roles that can read our dead to find out if hes lying or not....He hinted at a role from the very start:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bek

good, had a nice lunch of hay and corn...drank from the trough and then had a nice nap...

That screams to me he wants to tell us his role, but not be blunt with which animal he was. It all adds up quite simply. Did you see how he talked about role reveals? He didnt reveal his role until he was surely dead(ironically, he was almost saved...but of course whoever had the tie took him down). He talked all day about how he didnt want to reveal roles. For him to come out of the blue to some extent to shoot down the idea should have raised alarms in your head(maybe it did though, hence why you pushed hard to get him lynched). For reference:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bek

and that revealing clover or moses would be wrong this early

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bek

i dont see a need in clover or moses relieving two people...it is too early in my eyes for key roles to start revealing themselves...and with only a single game pm, to me it just seems early...

To me it is quite clear now, bek was either based on being a horse:
Boxer the Horse: Can protect one other player (or self) per night. Cannot protect the same person two nights in a row. If Boxer or the player they are guarding is attacked, there is a 25% chance the attack will kill Boxer. There is also a 50% chance he will be able to identify the attacker. Has no PM privledges.

Clover the Horse: Can view one lynch victim per night via PM. Will learn full role of player chosen. If this player dies, there is a 75% chance that Moses will learn his findings. One time per game can choose one other player to PM (submit name to GM at night) -- they will have PM privledges for that day only.

I think based on his comments about the seer PMs, from those 2, he was clover. His attitude was very retalitory with his argument against the seer reveals(unlike mine and swaggs, which were both argumentative). I picked up on it then, and hoped others would have too. I think they did, and thats why alan and hoops got bek killed.

You guys wanted my crazy conspiracy theory, and there it is. Maybe knowing how bek acts helped me, but i found it all quite obvious if you read in depth. Im guessing alan and hoops found it rather obvious too.

For the icing on the cake in this theory, ill guess hoops had the tie-breaker. He seemed quite inquisitive today about whomever having the tie breaker yesterday retaining it today. Then, at the last second(well, its was 6-3 at the time, so not so last second...but about 5 minutes to lynch), he switches off the victim he had campaigned for all day onto a third party, allowing him to still break any tie that might come up. If he had swapped to grey, he would have broken the tie to grey per the rules of the tie-breaker power.

I might be crazy, and i fully expect to be dead at their hands soon, be it by lynch or night kill, but i hope you all understand what i believe has transpired today. The bad guys made a move, and it worked. Bravo bad guys, you just got quite a bit closer to victory!

Chubby · 09-13-2006, 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

With that in mind, I would guess we made a good choice lynching Bulletsponge and the other two were poor selections.

Which means we look at who voted for Bek tonight.

hoopsguy · 09-13-2006, 09:51 PM

Chubby, we don't know that the person with the tiebreak today was evil, anymore than we know about the person on Day 1. But if you match the Day 1 vote with the change in rules, then it suggests that the person who triggered that tie-break was choosing between two good characters.

RealDeal · 09-13-2006, 09:51 PM

From my memory of the book, only four of the rules change, and none of the rules are specifically associated with any one character.

Greyroofoo · 09-13-2006, 09:54 PM

Well I'm a good character

I just hope someone believes me

Blade6119 · 09-13-2006, 09:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RealDeal

Also, there has been at least one instance where they were pming each other outside of the game, and then one of them revealed some info from the pm's in the WW thread. It was all really weird.

Id like to note on this: The situation in question occured before there were any rules against such actions. The rules we have today are due to the situation in which i was evil and he was good. We were both arguing heavily that day, despite your claim we always have the same voice, and he sent me a PM joking about being bad. I took it, revealed it, and got him killed. Ya, no distinctive voice...

Chubby · 09-13-2006, 09:54 PM

blade - i pretty much agree with your post. However, if that is what happened then by forcing their hand we will be able to eliminate revolutionaries now.

If the bandwagon had proceeded full steam, bek would still be dead but without any info for us to go on.

Blade6119 · 09-13-2006, 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greyroofoo

Well I'm a good character

I just hope someone believes me

Im sure you can convince Alan and Hoops, they seem quite willing to associate with anyone who will have them.

I came out today and opposed the only 100% clear villager. Why would i do that when i was bad..thats just stupid. I would have buddied up to him and agreed with his comments....OH WAIT, THATS WHAT ALAN AND HOOPS DID!!!

Blade6119 · 09-13-2006, 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chubby

blade - i pretty much agree with your post. However, if that is what happened then by forcing their hand we will be able to eliminate revolutionaries now.

If the bandwagon had proceeded full steam, bek would still be dead but without any info for us to go on.

I think the key info we gained were people who defended bek today. Hoops switching off the bandwagon he started right before the lynch does not count as defending him. If he wanted to defend him, he would have switched to grey.

GoldenEagle · 09-13-2006, 10:02 PM

Are we going to get the information that bek is trying to tell us or not?

09-13-2006, 08:10 PM	#752
Blade6119 Coordinator Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Scottsdale, Arizona	I got back too late, but there is no way i would have swapped to bek. I have no idea how he is up over others who have missed votes or been quieter. Just wrong __________________ *Underachievement* The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. *Despair* It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. *Demotivation* Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html

09-13-2006, 08:29 PM	#761
Swaggs Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000	I really don't feel good about how the final hour shook out. __________________ DOWN WITH HATTRICK!!! The RWBL Are you reading In The Bleachers?

09-13-2006, 08:40 PM	#765
Blade6119 Coordinator Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Scottsdale, Arizona	Bek 41 path12 40 Dodgerchick 29 Passacaglia 28 bulletsponge 23 saldana 23 RealDeal 22 Lathum 21 Chubby 19 ardent enthusiast 18 GoldenEagle 16 Greyroofoo 12 Conflaguration 12 Grammaticus 9 All the people who have posted less then bek...ya, hes been real quiet... __________________ *Underachievement* The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. *Despair* It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. *Demotivation* Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html

09-13-2006, 08:49 PM	#768
Abe Sargent Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Catonsville, MD	And something Blade does all the time __________________ Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent

09-13-2006, 09:02 PM	#772
Blade6119 Coordinator Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Scottsdale, Arizona	Sorry if that comes across as angry, but it is. Lathum and Saldana dont get lynched for being friends. They regulary support each other in these games, so i think what happened to bek is just bs...killing him for being my friend, poor form. __________________ *Underachievement* The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. *Despair* It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. *Demotivation* Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html

09-13-2006, 08:09 PM	#751
Chubby Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Syracuse, NY	bek - with path not online it might be a good idea to show BrianD as evil if you have evidence without a role reveal. It might convince the tiebreak-ee.

09-13-2006, 08:14 PM	#754
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Chubby, of course he could have. The duke role is a revealed good in the role descriptions. So by the very act of exercising the role he proved himself - he did not have to exercise it to save his life in order to prove his allegiance.

09-13-2006, 08:16 PM	#755
Chubby Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Syracuse, NY	hoops - the fact remains that no information comes out with a death. we don't have anything to go on with either of the leading candidates, what purpose is there to just randomly vote someone at this point? a tie can and hopefully will bring out information to help the barnyard animals.

09-13-2006, 08:20 PM	#756
Bek High School JV Join Date: Aug 2005	where is path....im dying here of anxiety....i cant hadle it

09-13-2006, 08:23 PM	#758
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Well, the problem is that the Revolutionaries and Pilkerton both have more information at the moment than we do. So if one of our adversaries control the vote there is a better chance for them to advance their cause with the vote than for us to help ours. Lets make some assumptions: 2 Revolutionaries 1 Pilkerton 1 Evil Seer 1 Sympathizer The revolutionaries know the identity of their teammate and the sympathizer. With fifteen players left, they are only worried about hitting Pilkerton or the Evil Seer. So they automatically save one of their own and have a 1 in 6 chance of hitting one of their own in a random vote between villagers (15 people left, won't hit themselves or the Sympathizer). Pilkerton - knows one of the Revolutionaries. So he has better information than anyone who isn't a seer for the good guys. Evil Seer - either knows the seer or people who are not the seer. So he can fire a vote at the seer if he identified him or take a shot at the seer by ignoring someone in a tie he has identified. Random good guy - doesn't really matter if we have two good guys in a tie, just hope he lucks into selecting one without a role. But has less role information than all of the bad guys to factor into the decision - more likely to be a 50/50 call. Good seer - best case scenario for farm guys, as he may have viewed one of the people in the tie.

09-13-2006, 08:27 PM	#759
Bek High School JV Join Date: Aug 2005	wow...lots of people on

09-13-2006, 08:28 PM	#760
Bek High School JV Join Date: Aug 2005	im I considered in limbo...can i still discuss things???

09-13-2006, 08:30 PM	#762
Chubby Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Syracuse, NY	bek - you're not dead so you're more than welcome to discuss things as far as I understand the rules

09-13-2006, 08:33 PM	#764
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	DC, for whatever it is worth the vote certainly doesn't help refute the idea that you are "throwing away your vote". As far as the scans, the math would argue that the chances of catching a bad guy are not "close to nothing". Seer: Night 1 - won't view Swaggs or self, can't view dead guy. If Cronin was good then we have 3+ people he can view out of 17. Night 2 - still won't view Swaggs or self, can't view Cronin, Saldana, or Bullet. If we have failed in killing a bad guy by now then 3/15. 14/17 * 12/15 = about 65% chance they have not found one of three bad guys. I don't think they can see the Sympathizer, but if they (will look it up after finishing this post) then 13/17 * 11/15 = 56% not find = 44% chance of finding You can run similar numbers for each of the guys who view the dead. We had bad luck if the seer viewed Saldana on Night 1. If they viewed Bullet then they did a nice job shaping the vote on Day 2. We had bad luck if the seer viewed Lathum on Night 2. If they viewed Bek or Grey then I wish they had exerted more influence today. The chances for overlap are less in this game since the day kill and night kill role reveals cannot overlap.

09-13-2006, 08:46 PM	#767
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Blade, in regards to Bek's posts: 1.) They went up a lot during your chats with him that were not game related 2.) They went up a lot after he took the lead in voting this evening It is very possible that I pushed on the wrong person today, but I had not fully bought into your argument on Grey and I put my vote in another direction. Pushing people to take part in the game through accusation is a proven tactic in the game, even though it is no fun being on the business end of it.

09-13-2006, 09:10 PM	#773
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	Glad to know that you have me distrusted Blade, because thats exactly where I have you. You have been throwing out harmful ideas for the village today, and i guess calling you on it puts me on your distrust list, perfectly fine with me. Like I said earlier I would rather have voted for you, but there didn't seem enough backing. I also like how you say I protected Greyfooroo all day.. I don't know anything about him.. not sure where you got that from, other than just making it up. The only thing I said about Greyfooroo was that 3 of the 4 most suspicious people in the game right now had their votes on him.. so something seemed really odd to me. I went with the best vote to keep you from doing harm in my eyes. I hope you come after me tommorrow, thats fine, Im pretty sure unless we find out something more tonight, that my vote will be for you tommorrow anyways. Will make for a fun day

09-13-2006, 09:12 PM	#774
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	Thats probably my biggest frustration so far this game.. you, Bek and earlier today BrianD enjoyed taking my words and saying I said things I completely didn't. Either you all are not reading my posts and are good, or you're bad and purposely trying to stir the pot. My guess is the latter.

09-13-2006, 09:12 PM	#775
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Blade, I'm sorry if it pissed you off. I can understand being upset about it. But I have played a few games with the two of you and my perception (right or wrong) is that Bek tends to follow your lead in these games. For the reasons I outlined in the vote post, I consider this a risk. I'm uneasy about you in this one, but I tend to be edgy about you until given a reason not to be - same holds true for a couple of other players. But if I have to choose who to play a game out to the end with, and the choices are you vs Bek I'm choosing you because you do play back and make the experience more fun for me. Right or wrong, with an absence of other information to factor into the decision today I considered this with my vote. I also pulled my vote off Bek when I got the feeling he was being railroaded, despite the fact that he was not really able to respond with much to back his suspicions when pressed. We'll sort out what was the right move, in the context of the game, soon enough. I hope this post helps explain my stance a little more for you, even if you do not like it.

09-13-2006, 09:13 PM	#776
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Alan - the name is Greyroofoo

09-13-2006, 09:15 PM	#778
path12 Coordinator Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Seattle, WA	Alright, I show final vote as follows: Bek 4 -- BrianD (602), Alan T (690), RealDeal (711), Greyroofoo (730) Greyroofoo 4 -- Blade (603), GoldenEagle (630), Bek (633), Chubby (732) Ardent 2 -- Grammaticus (634), hoopsguy (731) Anxiety 2 -- Passacaglia (646), Swaggs (688) Chubby 1 -- Anxiety (734) GoldenEagle 1 -- Dodgerchick (716) Results coming shortly. Thanks for your patience. __________________ We have always been at war with Eastasia.

09-13-2006, 09:24 PM	#781
path12 Coordinator Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Seattle, WA	Frustration started to set in today. Not much work was done. You are all busy casting about for any information you could possibly use to help stop the revolution and kill the evildoers, but the further you get along it seems like the less you know. As on the first day, you ended up deadlocked. Greyroofoo and Bek were called to the front as the rest of the animals huddled to make a decision. After long discussion and argument, it was finally decided that Bek was a likely revolutionary, and he was promptly dispatched. Walking back to the barns, some of you notice that there have been additional changes made to the commandments: 1. Whatever goes upon two legs is an enemy. 2. Whatever goes upon four legs, or has wings, is a friend. 3. No animal shall wear clothes. 4. No animal shall sleep in a bed with sheets. 5. No animal shall drink alcohol to excess. 6. No animal shall kill any other animal without cause. 7. All animals are equal. You wonder what this means as you trudge back to your stalls for what will certainly be a restless night. BEK HAS BEEN LYNCHED. NIGHT ACTIONS DUE 9AM EASTERN TOMORROW. __________________ We have always been at war with Eastasia.

09-13-2006, 09:27 PM	#783
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	Hmm here is an idea.. I noticed that one of the days (maybe yesterday with bullet?) we didnt have new rules posted.. maybe thats the way we know if they were g ood or bad when lynched... just a thought.. If thats the case then maybe we did get a bad guy yesterday

09-13-2006, 09:28 PM	#784
Greyroofoo Pro Starter Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Alabama	well right now there are 3 rules changed

09-13-2006, 09:30 PM	#786
Lorena Unregistered Join Date: May 2004	Hmm... I wonder if it would be a good idea to reveal what type of barnyard animals we are. Maybe that'll lead us closer to the truth.

09-13-2006, 09:31 PM	#787
RealDeal High School Varsity Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: here	I voted for bek, but it kind of felt like "I voted for kodos". It seemed like the argument was against blade because he was opposed to the idea of moses/clover pming their info to swaggs. Now blade is just wrong by being against that idea. It makes no sense not to do this. But if that makes you suspicious, then the vote should have been for blade. I would have much rather voted for blade than bek, and I feel like people should cast votes that count and not cop out by casting a meaningless vote on someone who isn't a lynch candidate. So with my two bad choices I voted for bek. To Dodgerchick, I think part of the issue with bek is that there is some history in previous WW games with bek/blade. They are buddies, as is no doubt clear, and they appear to kibbitz regularly outside of the game. There's nothing wrong with that, but it appears sometimes that in the game they don't really have distinctive voices. Also, there has been at least one instance where they were pming each other outside of the game, and then one of them revealed some info from the pm's in the WW thread. It was all really weird. Like I said, I don't think that made bek any more or less viable than anyone else right now, considering we had no good options anyway. But it does provide some context as to why the vote went how it went. Bek didn't really stick out to me as a prime lynch candidate, but neither does anyone else. This has just been three days of grabass so far.

09-13-2006, 09:44 PM	#788
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	I did a little reading on Animal Farm at Wikipedia yesterday. The list of rules changed as Napoleon's group assumed greater control of the farm. It represented the new regime of farm animals becoming more like the humans that they replaced. So I do not think seeing new rules posted is good for the Farm.

09-13-2006, 09:49 PM	#789
Chubby Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Syracuse, NY	I'm going to guess that when the rules get changed, it's not a good thing for us barnyarders. I think Bek was one of us good guys and with his death, things swung more towards the revolutionaries' side hence, the rules being changed. We've learned that whoever had the tiebreak today was most likely evil and most likely voted for bek to begin with. A hell of a lot more info than simply going with the lynchswing of "vote bek cause I said so and others did"...

09-13-2006, 09:49 PM	#790
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	With that in mind, I would guess we made a good choice lynching Bulletsponge and the other two were poor selections.

09-13-2006, 09:51 PM	#793
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Chubby, we don't know that the person with the tiebreak today was evil, anymore than we know about the person on Day 1. But if you match the Day 1 vote with the change in rules, then it suggests that the person who triggered that tie-break was choosing between two good characters.

09-13-2006, 09:51 PM	#794
RealDeal High School Varsity Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: here	From my memory of the book, only four of the rules change, and none of the rules are specifically associated with any one character.

09-13-2006, 09:54 PM	#795
Greyroofoo Pro Starter Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Alabama	Well I'm a good character I just hope someone believes me

09-13-2006, 09:54 PM	#797
Chubby Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Syracuse, NY	blade - i pretty much agree with your post. However, if that is what happened then by forcing their hand we will be able to eliminate revolutionaries now. If the bandwagon had proceeded full steam, bek would still be dead but without any info for us to go on.

09-13-2006, 10:02 PM	#800
GoldenEagle Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Little Rock, AR	Are we going to get the information that bek is trying to tell us or not? __________________ Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014

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