The 14 Game Tournament (A Real Life Dynasty)

[digamma]

Those who read the college basketball thread will know I follow Harvard basketball and the Ivy League very closely. I have also been known to make games more interesting from time to time with small wagers. I plan to use this thread to chronicle the Ivy League season both as a fan and as a gambler. The intention is to bet all 56 Ivy League games (assuming I can get lines). For the gambling portion of this thread, let's assume that one unit is $10. We'll track results as we go along.

The Ivy League season starts on Saturday with two games, so the thread will begin in earnest on the weekend. Between now and then I'll try to preview each team and provide some additional background. It should be a fun season to do this. Enjoy the ride.

[digamma]

Background

As most know, the Ivy League is the only conference that doesn't have a post-season tournament to determine it's automatic bid for the NCAA tournament. The eight teams play a home and home round robin (14 total games, thus the 14 Game Tournament), with the league winner getting the automatic bid. If there is a tie, there is a one game playoff to determine the winner. If there is a three way tie, there is a two game mini-tournament (one team gets a bye). Last year, Harvard beat Yale in a one game playoff on a game winner with 7 seconds left. The last three way tie was in 2002.

The 14 Game Tournament takes place with one exception on weekends only from mid-January to early March. (The lone exception is a Penn/Princeton game traditionally played on the last Tuesday of the regular season.) Teams have a travel partner and play Friday/Saturday double headers against other paired teams. The travel partners are Brown and Yale, Harvard and Dartmouth, Penn and Princeton (the Ps) and Columbia and Cornell (the Cs). The January weekends are usually for the travel partners to play one another (Harvard and Dartmouth play this Saturday and on Saturday the 23rd, for example). The magic really starts the first Friday/Saturday weekend (January 29th and 30th this year).

The big news this year is that this may be the last 14 Game Tournament. There is a proposal before the league presidents to move to a conference tournament next season. While this proposal has been put forward before, this year it has the support of the coaches, athletic directors and administrative committee which hasn't been the case previously. It looks like the presidents will approve it. (The proposal, btw, would be a four team tournament rather than a full eight team tournament.)

There are certainly pros and cons for the post-season tournament, and I get the pro side. It would be a great event and in the long run could help the Ivy become a two bid league. However, you give up the near perfection of the 14 Game Tournament. There is something really cool about all games starting at roughly the same time on a Friday night. It's idealistic, yet very real.

This should also be a tremendous Ivy League race, with a unique twist involving the travel partners. Historically, this is a Penn and Princeton league. The two teams have combined for 47 NCAA tournament appearances. The rest of the league combined has 25 appearances. This has always made the Penn-Princeton road trip daunting. That has changed a bit over the last decade. Cornell made a big run in the 2008-2010 time frame. More recently, Harvard has dominated, going to the NCAA tournament the last four years. Princeton has been in the mix, but Penn has fallen on hard times. That road trip suddenly isn't quite as scary.

The twist this year is that most predictions have one of four teams winning the league: Princeton, Yale, Columbia or Harvard. It is wide open. And each of the contenders is from a different travel grouping. So, as we get into the February Friday-Saturday play, there won't be a weekend off--each back to back will feature at least one really tough game.

Tomorrow I'll start with team previews.

[Young Drachma]

[britrock88]

I'll be eating this up, too.

[digamma]

OK, here we go with the team previews. I'll wait until the end to provide the preseason predictions I submitted to another site and how I think they've changed since early November.

Cornell

Cornell reached the Ivy League mountain top in 2010, winning its third Ivy title in a row and making it to the Sweet 16. Unfortunately, after that, they fell off a cliff. Hard.

Coach Steve Donahue left Cornell to take over at Boston College (more on him later), and he was replaced by Bill Courtney. Cornell bottomed out in the 2013-14 season when they finished 2-26. In fairness, they played that season without star Shonn Miller. With his return last season the Big Red improved to 13-17. They actually finished the first half of Ivy play at 4-3 before fading down the stretch to finish 5-9 overall.

This season was thought to be a continuation of the rebuilding process, with a couple of older players balancing out a large crop of promising freshmen. Through most of the non-conference slate that is exactly what is happening. Cornell has gone 10-11 deep with no one averaging more than 29 minutes a game.

Cornell is led by Junior guard Robert Hatter, who is averaging 19 points and 4 assists in 29 minutes. They also have a decent junior big man David Onuorah, who pulls down 8 rebounds a game. Freshman guard Matt Morgan is one of the leading candidates for Ivy Freshman of the Year. He's averaging almost 15 points a game.

Cornell is 6-7 so far. They are averaging 72 points a game, but giving up 78, skewed in part allowing 116 to Georgia Tech and 98 to Colgate. The Big Red is the lowest ranked team according to kenpom at 255. His advanced stats also show Cornell to be very challenged on the defensive end. That will likely prove to be even more of a liability in league play where possessions become precious.

This is not Cornell's year. The best case for them is to finish at the top of the non-contenders, but the suspicion here is that they are in a battle for the basement. That said, if their young talent can develop, they have a brighter days ahead.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Go Dartmouth!

[digamma]

Brown

So, Brown can score. They play at one of the fastest tempos in the Ivy League. Admittedly, that is a bit like driving 45 in a residential neighborhood (referring solely to pace of play, not quality). The rub is that Brown doesn't really play defense.

Through its non-conference slate (Brown is 4-9 so far), the Bears sit 301st in the nation in points allowed. They fare a little better in KenPom's advanced metrics (ranking 276th in the defensive efficiency category), but not much. What that means is that you could have some exciting losses in Providence!

Brown has a core of junior talent and very good senior captain Cedric Kuakumensah (say it five times fast). The depth is young, with four freshmen and sophomores getting the bulk of the bench minutes. Scoring comes from Kuakumensah and a junior guard triumvirate of Norman Hobbie, Tavon Blackmon and Steven Spieth, of the Dallas Spieths.

Brown is pretty much guaranteed to start the Ivy season 0-2, as they play travel partner Yale twice in January. This is just a bad match-up for the Bears. We'll talk more about Yale later, but they have the guard play to match Brown and returning Ivy POY Justin Sears will more than neutralize Kuakumensah.

From there it is about stealing wins at home and being respectable on the road. The Bears will score well enough to stay in a lot of games, so 5-7 Ivy wins is possible. In any case, they should be fun to watch.

[digamma]

Penn

To understand where Penn sits in the Ivy League, you sort of have to understand where they came from. As noted above, the Quakers have historically dominated the Ivies along with Princeton. Further, they are the only Ivy team who has made the modern final four. Lastly, they play Princeton in the traditional final Ivy League regular season game which used to determine the Ivy Champ most of the time. Add all that together, and Penn fans have a sort of sense of entitlement to the league crown, or at the very least, being in the mix for the league crown.

It goes without saying then that three straight seasons of 9-18 or worse which led to the firing of Penn legend Jerome Allen have been just a little tough for the Quaker faithful to take.

Enter Steve Donahue. After an unsuccessful run at Boston College, Donahue is back in the Ivies trying to resurrect the Penn program. Donahue's Cornell teams were known for firing away from the outside with an anchor presence in the middle. Donahue doesn't have a team with that skillset at Penn, but that hasn't stopped him from starting to run his system. Last year Penn shot 448 three pointers all season (34.8%). Halfway through this season, they've attempted 332 (shooting at only 28.6%). The pace of play will likely slow in the league, so I don't see them taking over 600 3s but they will certainly see an increased number over last year.

Penn does have a pretty good guy in the middle in Darien Nelson-Henry. He's one of those guys who seems like he's been around forever. Finally a senior, DNH is averaging almost 13 points and 9 rebounds a game. Matt Howard, Sam Jones and Antonio Woods also average just over ten points a game each. Beyond those four, there are a host of young and unproven guys who are battling for playing time and not really standing out.

Expecting a complete rebuild, Penn fired out of the gates 4-1 with good wins over Robert Morris and LaSalle. Since then, they've come back to earth a bit, barely avoiding a major crash landing by escaping with a close win over Division III Ursinus. They are grouped with Cornell, Brown and Dartmouth in most of the computer rankings, and like Cornell and Brown have better offensive metrics than defensive.

For Penn, I think a successful season is one where they look at themselves at the end of Ivy League play and say we're better than we were when the season started. They haven't been able to say that the last three seasons.

[digamma]

Dartmouth

It says something about your basketball program when the greatest team moment in the last 50 years was determined by Ivy Hoops Online to be a game where you kept someone else from winning a league title you weren't in contention for yourself. So it goes, for Dartmouth.

Last March, the Big Green sent me screaming across my living while being pierced with daggers from my wife's eyes for possibly waking up the kids. They completed an improbably come back versus Yale to keep Yale from winning the Ivy title and to force a playoff the next week between Yale and Harvard. (FWIW, this moment was also voted the #8 moment in Harvard basketball history, which says something too.)

The hero of that night Gabas Maldunas has graduated. Gone also is Alex Mittola, Dartmouth's leading scorer last season.

What is not gone is Dartmouth's deliberate play. They've taken the fewest shots per game by a wide margin this season. They are also shooting poorly--eighth in the league in FG%. They shoot the fewest threes as well. This obviously results in a relatively poor offensive team.

The bright spot for Dartmouth has been freshman forward Evan Boudreaux. He's averaging 14 points and 8 rebounds a game (both lead the team). He fills the Maldunas role in the Dartmouth offense and should be someone to keep an eye on over the next four seasons.

Guards Miles Wright and Connor Boehm are not bad by Ivy standards, and perpetual sixth man Malik Gill can give teams fits by (slightly) increasing Dartmouth's pace of play.

The problem for Dartmouth is their lack of quality depth. They throw a lot of guys at you, but no one stands out or really has the potential to take over a game. At the upper end of the league, teams have a third, fourth or fifth option who can add consistent points.

Dartmouth is 4-8 to start the season, with nothing spectacular to speak of. They too hover around #250 in the computer rankings. It's tough to see how they get much higher than that. Well one way would be to do what they did last year, and steal a game from the two league leaders (they split with both Harvard and Yale). They'll get an early opportunity, as they face Harvard twice in the next three weeks, including this Saturday to kick off the Ivy season.

[digamma]

And now we move on to the contenders...

Columbia

Columbia is without a doubt the best offensive team in the Ivy League. They have the best offensive player in guard Maodo Lo. They have a great second banana in forward Alex Rosenberg. And they have several other guys who can just shoot (Luke Castlin, Grant Mullins and Luke Petrasek). Columbia makes and takes the most three pointers. They have the highest offensive efficiency ratings in the league. When they are running on all cylinders, they are fun to watch and hard to keep pace with.

The problem is they can really, really struggle defensively. The numbers don't look bad at this point in the season (they rank in the middle of the pack defensively), but they are buoyed by five of their last seven games being against sub-250 teams. The Lions are 0-4 against top 100 teams and have allowed 80+ in three of those four games.

It's worth talking a little more about Lo and Rosenberg. Lo is fantastic. He's a do everything guard. He's averaging almost 17 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists and 2+ steals a game. He shoots at 44% from the field, including 40% from three. An all Ivy selection last year, he'll contend for player of the year honors this season.

Last year was supposed to be Rosenberg's year. He (6'7" F) was coming off a 2014 season where he averaged 16 ppg and was, at times, the best player in the league. Last year he broke his foot in the preseason and withdrew from school to preserve a year of eligibility (dumb Ivy redshirt rules, part I). He came back seemingly at full stride this season, averaging 14 points and 4 rebounds a game. However, he suffered another foot injury in Columbia's last game before its exam break. He hasn't played since, but is supposed to be back for the start of league play.

Assuming Rosenberg is healthy, Columbia's offense allows them to play with and beat anyone in the league. Their defense however makes them susceptible to upset too. There's a theory that the league will be decided by how well the top four hold serve against the bottom four. Columbia will need to avoid let downs it has suffered in the past (and really this season too--hello, inexplicable loss to Longwood) if it expects to be in the mix the first weekend of March. I'm not sure they're able to do that.

[digamma]

Harvard

Working our way up the KenPom rankings, we land on the good guys.

It was expected to be a rebuilding year for the five time defending league champs. Coming into the season, the Crimson were expected to lose two senior starters (both all Ivy selections Wesley Saunders and Steve Mondou-Missi) plus a couple of major bench contributors. The impact of those losses was exponentially increased when three year starting point guard Siyani Chambers tore his ACL over the summer. Chambers had been expected to be the calm in the storm of replacing 60+% of offensive production. Losing Chambers increased that to 80%. Chambers, due to the stupid Ivy redshirt rules (part II), is required to take the year off from school in order to preserve his eligibility.

And, indeed, the early season was kind of ugly. Faced with a daunting early season schedule, the Crimson sputtered to a 2-6 start, though it looked decent at times in playing both Providence and Kansas into the final five minutes.

Then something happened between the exam break and getting to Hawaii for the Diamondhead Classic. The team seemed to gel. Zena Edosomwan emerged as the low post presence he was expected to be as a top 100 recruit. That opened up shooting opportunities for Corey Johnson and Corbin Miller. And the Crimson didn't seem to miss a beat defensively. The team upset BYU and blew out Auburn before falling to Oklahoma in a game where it again took a top 5 team into the last five minutes of the game. The Crimson appeared to be ready to make an Ivy run again.

But...it's never that easy. The Crimson is suddenly facing injury issues again. Tommy McCarthy, who replaced Chambers at PG, is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Senior Patrick Steeves, who emerged as a top threat off the bench after missing all of his first three seasons with various injuries, is hurt again. Suddenly, things are again very much up in the air.

If McCarthy and Steeves are healthy, the Crimson can go 8-9 deep and play with anyone in the league. Key injuries though reduce that depth pretty quickly.

In truth everything revolves around Zena. He allows Harvard to play inside-out, which is Tommy Amaker's preferred style. He's a monster on the glass. This year he's emerged as a very good passer out of double teams. His liability is at the free throw line, where he's only shooting 49% (not good when you've taken 40 more free throws than anyone else on the team).

I'm on board for the ride with this Harvard team. They have the potential to roll through the league, but also the risk of struggling to an 8-6 finish. Health, foul trouble and free throw shooting will determine which way they go.

[digamma]

Princeton

I feel like I could write the Princeton preview without looking at any of their stats. It's the same stuff every year. A bunch of guys running a deliberate offense, waiting for the right cut or open jumper and playing fundamental defense. That's pretty much what it is. Every single year. And this year is no exception.

The Tigers have eight guys who play more than 10 minutes a game. Most of them are between 6'4" and 6'8". Most of them shoot the ball well. It drives me nuts.

They do have a break out star this year. Henry Caruso is a 6'4" wing who has lit the season on fire so far. He's averaging about 17 points a game on almost 60% shooting and a ridiculous 50% from three (on 2.4 attempts per game). He kind of came out of nowhere. Last year he averaged 13 minutes a game and was not really a factor. His development is extraordinary, and he's the "Unnamed Princeton Guard" who will make the All Ivy Team as predicted by Mike James, one of the leading Ivy basketball writers.

Spencer Weisz was supposed to be that guy and he's done fine. He's a sophomore guard averaging 10 points, 6 rebounds and almost 4 assists a game.

Devin Cannady, Amir Bell and Steven Cook also fit this mold (Cannady is a little shorter), each averaging almost 10 points a game.

It is worth noting that Hans Brase, a 6'8 forward two year starter is out for the season due to an injury.

Princeton has beaten everyone they've been supposed to beat so far this season. They've lost to all four top 100 teams they have played though. Going on the theory of needing to hold serve against the bottom four, Princeton appears to be in position to do that. The question for them will be if they can split or do even better against the top four. It seems pretty clear Princeton will be in the mix. They open the Ivy season with Penn on Saturday. It will be interesting to see if their final game of the season, also against Penn on March 8 will be meaningful in determining the league champ.

[digamma]

Yale

Being the good Harvard fan that I am, I generally can't stand Yale. That said, I really feel for this Yale team and have a begrudging respect for them. They were so close last year. They led Dartmouth by five with less than 30 seconds left and were headed to their first NCAA tournament since 1962. Then Maldunis happened. A week later Harvard beat them on a final possession shot. To make things worse, they got passed over for an NIT bid they really deserved.

They return the Ivy Player of the Year Justin Sears as well as guards Makai Mason and Jack Montague. Sears is a beast. He is as good as anyone in the league in the low post and he can step out and hit a 18-20 footer. He's averaging 16 and 7 this year, along with three assists a game.

Mason is running the offense for Yale and doing it well. He too is averaging 16 a game along with four assists.

Montague is a three point shooter, hitting at a 36% clip so far this season.

Yale also gets Brandon Sherrod back after a year sabbatical to sing a cappella with the Yale Whiffenpoofs. I'm not kidding. He's a 6'6" forward and really good on the boards.

Yale has been hammering bad teams so far this season. In fact, they don't have a win by less than 12 points. They are 0-4 against top 100 teams though. They played SMU tough, losing by a bucket, and played Duke close for a half before Sears got into foul trouble. They also have losses to USC and Illinois. The one bizarre result is a 34 point loss to Albany. Sears didn't play though.

I feel like Sears will be on a mission in league play. And the Bulldogs have shown the ability to smash the bad teams. I think they're the favorite heading into league play.

[digamma]

Original Prediction

In November, on an Ivy message board, I submitted the following standing predictions:

1. Princeton
2. Columbia
3. Yale
4. Harvard
5. Dartmouth
6. Brown
7. Cornell
8. Penn

I picked Justin Sears as player of the year and Corey Johnson from Harvard as rookie of the year. I picked Spencer Weisz, Maodo Lo, Alex Rosenberg and Makai Mason to join Sears on the first team All Ivy team.

Revised Predictions

With about 12-14 games under teams' belts, my thoughts have changed some. As noted, I think Yale is the favorite heading into league play. I think Columbia has the most questions of the top four, especially with Rosenberg possibly still being injured. So, my revised top 8:

1. Yale
2. Princeton
3. Harvard
4. Columbia
5. Cornell
6. Penn
7. Dartmouth
8. Brown

POY: Justin Sears

All Ivy: Sears, Zena Edosomwan, Henry Caruso, Maodo Lo, Makai Mason

ROY: Evan Boudreaux

[digamma]

This weekend the season kicks off with the first set of travel partner games.

Harvard and Dartmouth tip off first at 1:00 Eastern on Saturday in Cambridge.

Penn plays Princeton at 4:30 Eastern in Philadelphia.

Back with predictions tomorrow or Saturday morning.

[corbes]

Enjoying the thread, dig, thanks

[vex]

Originally Posted by digamma

Yale also gets Brandon Sherrod back after a year sabbatical to sing a cappella with the Yale Whiffenpoofs.

Well that's a sentence I wasn't expecting.

[digamma]

Today's Games

Harvard (-10) vs. Dartmouth
Princeton (-6.5) at Penn

Harvard vs. Dartmouth

I expect Harvard and Dartmouth to play tight for much of the game. Whether that is 30 of 40 minutes before Harvard is able to pull away or all 40 minutes is the question. I'm very curious to see how Dartmouth's freshman phenom does against Edosomwan. Dartmouth also has two guards in Miles Wright and Malik Gill (off the bench) who are athletic enough to cause problems for Harvard's back court.

Dartmouth has played Harvard tough a number of times over Harvard's championship run. Last year the teams split. In 2012-2013, Harvard needed overtime at home to put the Big Green away. Only in 2013-2014, when Harvard pounded pretty much everyone in the league did the Crimson blow out Dartmouth twice.

I don't think Dartmouth shoots well enough to win the game (41% on the season so far). That said, I think that there are enough questions surrounding the Harvard team at this point (will McCarthy play? how healthy is Steeves? what do you do if teams start fouling Zena?), that I'm uncomfortable with a double digit line in league play.

Had the Vermont game not happened, my tune might be different. Harvard had shown an ability to blow out teams (Wofford, BU, Auburn). But losing to Vermont brings us crashing back to reality. The question is whether it is a blip or a true regression to the mean.

In any case, give me the points with Dartmouth. I'll say Harvard 75-68.

Princeton at Penn

The fan in me cheers for Penn. Getting an early loss for Princeton would be great. That's simply not going to happen though. Despite playing scrappy early, Penn hasn't played very well lately. And as noted in the preview, Princeton has really taken care of lesser quality opponents. Princeton has won 5 out of 6 versus the Quakers. I think the trend continues.

I'm interested to watch Princeton's offense and see Henry Caruso's continued development. I don't think Penn has anyone to match him. If they can keep DNH involved in the game, they can keep it respectable. I think 6.5 points is light here.

Princeton to cover, 80-65.

The Picks (one unit each)
Dartmouth +10
Princeton -6.5

[digamma]

Oh, because of the quirkiness of the Ivy schedule, you will see Ivy teams playing one last non-league game against strange (mostly DIII) opponents over the next few weeks. This is because other conferences have gone into league play, and most Ivy teams are left with a free weekend before the back to backs start Jan 29-30.

So, last night Yale pounded Daniel Webster 94-53. Danny boy will drop his drawers again today versus Brown.

Penn played Ursinus last week. Columbia plays Central Pennsylvania College tonight. Harvard plays a Canadian college Ryerson next week and Dartmouth plays Pine Manor.

Princeton may take the cake this season. Next Sunday they play a school called Bryn Athyn, which I had to look up.

Founded in 1877, Bryn Athyn College is a small, private, coeducational, liberal arts college dedicated to a New Church approach to education and life.

Educational mission aside, the Bryn Athyn Lions are a terrible basketball team. They are 0-8 this season, with their closest game being a 13 point loss to Randolph-Macon. Name your score, Princeton.

Cornell played Penn State-Harrisburg in November but is avoiding the January DIII challenge this year.

[digamma]

Just read a stat that has me rethinking the Princeton cover. They are 1-13 vs. the spread in the last 14 opening Ivy games vs. Penn.

[digamma]

Well to get this off to a roaring start, I'm switching my pick on the Harvard game too.

The line is down to 9.5 (and -105) and Steeves and McCarthy are both dressed to play.

One unit bet placed on HAR -9.5.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by digamma

Today's Games


Harvard vs. Dartmouth


In any case, give me the points with Dartmouth. I'll say Harvard 75-68.

READ THE ABOVE.

Originally Posted by digamma

Well to get this off to a roaring start, I'm switching my pick on the Harvard game too.

The line is down to 9.5 (and -105) and Steeves and McCarthy are both dressed to play.

One unit bet placed on HAR -9.5.

Not this one.

Harvard 77, Dartmouth 70

Stupid emotional betting.

But Go Crimson. Absolutely have to be 1-0. Ogunwa Okolie and Patrick Steeves were the heroes, with 29 and 20 points, respectively.

[digamma]

I stuck with the original Princeton pick. This would be a nice emotional hedge if Penn won outright.

[digamma]

Princeton beat Penn in overtime by 2. I thought it would be a garden variety cover when Princeton stormed back from an early deficit to lead by 7 at the break. I didn't see any of the second half, so not sure what happened, but Penn had control late and let it slip away. Lame.

So, personally, we sit 0-2, down 2 units.

As a fan, today was awesome, and it is hopefully what we'll get more of as we get into the meat of the season. Dartmouth looks much better than their record indicates. Boudreaux is a real player. And if Penn can put forth the effort they did today, then that P road trip becomes really difficult to navigate. For now, though the big guys hold serve.

Next week, the Cs play each other and Brown and Yale play each other.

By the way, Brown spanked Danny Webster 66-43 and Columbia beat Central Pennsylvania Community State College and Rec Center, or whoever they were playing 96-68.

[digamma]

So we're back this week with two Ivy games.

Columbia hosts Cornell, and Brown travels to Yale. We get to see if the contenders (Columbia and Yale) continue to hold serve. Lines will come out tomorrow, so we'll wait for the official picks until then, but some things I'll be watching.

Can Columbia play defense?

Ivy games tend to be possession precious. Teams are really familiar with one another and as a result defense tends to be really tough. Columbia has one of the better offenses in the league, but struggles defensively. As they have to play more of a half court game in league play, how will they react? Will they give up easy buckets?

This may be even more important to watch this weekend. Last year, Columbia's two lowest scoring games of the year were against Cornell. They didn't break 50 either game.

Does Yale establish itself as the favorite?

As we discussed, Yale was positioned for a breakthrough last season, but saw it all come crashing down in heartbreaking fashion. Even as a fan of a rival, I felt a skosh of sympathy for the Elis. This year, they've been destroying inferior teams. Brown is an inferior team. If they continue their path of destruction, they will essentially put the league on notice that they intend to finish last year's work.

How good is Makai Mason?

Yale's guard has a chance to be a really, really good Ivy League player. He came on strong at the end of last season and has improved this season. This really relates to the last question, but if he continues to play at this level as the Ivy grind kicks in, it really could be a run away for Yale.

Is Alex Rosenberg healthy?

If so, Columbia can battle for the league title. If not, they could slip out of the top four. Let's see if and how much he plays tomorrow.

Outside of these two games, Harvard plays the Howard Bison and Dartmouth gets its D3 battle vs. Pine Manor. By the way, Harvard put away Canadian Ryerson on Tuesday night 73-57.

[digamma]

The lines for today's games are:

Columbia -9 vs. Cornell
Yale -15 vs. Brown

Both pretty tricky, and I don't feel great about either.

Let's take the Cs game first.

Alex Rosenberg is listed as doubtful. Columbia is 4-1 without him, but only one of those games has been against a top 200 team. You can guess which one that was.

Last year Cornell gave Columbia fits. In Ithaca, Columbia pulled out a 48-45 win, but Cornell held Maodo Lo scoreless.

The next week in Harlem, Cornell pulled out a 57-47 victory. Lo scored 11.

Those were Columbia's two lowest scoring games of the season. Gone from the Cornell team is Shonn Miller who is playing very well for UConn, particularly defensively, but Lo's direct match-up Robert Hatter is back.

The computer rankings put the spread right on the number (funny how Vegas does that). I expect a tight first half. The question in my mind is if Columbia can pull away. I suspect Cornell will play deliberately and try to limit possessions. In the end, I think it's just enough to cover.

I'll take Cornell with the points, with something like a 67-60 win for Columbia.

Yale vs. Brown

As noted several times, Yale is smashing inferior opponents. Brown ranks in the neighborhood of 250 in most of the computer rankings. Yale is 9-1 against teams ranked below 150. They have an average margin of victory of 24 points in those 9 wins. Their smallest victory is by 12 points.

Last year, Yale swept, one blow out at Brown 80-62 and one close one at Yale 69-65. The difference in the two games was supporting cast stuff. In the close one, Yale got nothing from anyone other than Sears and their #2 option last year Javier Duren. In the blow out, they spread it around and had four in double figures.

Still 15 points is a pretty big number in Ivy play. Last year there were 12 games that had greater than 15 point results, and 6 of those involved a pretty much lifeless Penn team.

I just kind of think Yale wants to make a statement. I think Brown will try to score with them, but won't in turn be able to stop the Elis. I'll lay the points and take a Yale Smash, 79-60.

The picks:
Cornell +9
Yale -15

[digamma]

Got Cornell at +10 and Yale still at -15.

[digamma]

I was feeling pretty smart when Yale jumped out to a 27-10 lead. Not as smart now with a 60-52 score.

[digamma]

65-59, Yale, and Justin Sears just fouled out. It might be time to start cheering for Brown.

[digamma]

Yale ended up winning by 9. They teased me a little, getting up by 13 at one point in the last two minutes, but Brown drilled a three immediately.

Cornell hung tough with Columbia the whole way and actually had the ball with 6 seconds left down 2. They looked pretty lackadaisical and Columbia could them with :02 left to prevent a three point attempt. After some free throw trading Columbia won by 4, 74-70.

So we split on the day, and lose the vig. Not horrible. 1-3 on the young season.

Impressions from today:

-Yes Makai Mason is good. He controlled the game and the ball was in his hands during any key possession.

-That said, Yale seemed beatable by Ivy squads. Sears was impressive at times, but disappeared for stretches and then got into foul trouble.

-Brown's air raid shoot the three offense was as expected. They fired 25 three point attempts. Overall, the game was kinda ugly though. 53 free throws between the two teams.

-I wouldn't be surprised if Yale blows them out next week in Providence, but as I said last week, if these initial contender/non-contender games are this competitive, it is going to be a fun league season.

-Columbia is sort of what we expected. At times, they looked so smooth on offense. Lo had an off night, shooting only 3-13. But Columbia had five in double figures.

-Cornell beat Brown and took 27 three pointers. They looked very erratic, yet they stayed in the game.

Elsewhere, Harvard beat Howard 69-61, in a game where Tommy Amaker benched all starters as punishment for poor play in the win over Ryerson on Tuesday. Dartmouth beat Pine Manor (which may be a women's teacher's college by more than 60.

Next week, we have three conference games, all rematches, Harvard at Dartmouth, Yale at Brown and Columbia at Cornell.

[digamma]

Traveling tomorrow so this week's previews may be kind of slim.

At the outset the thing to watch is the weather. The game between Yale and Brown has been moved to Friday night to try to beat the storm. No word yet on Harvard at Dartmouth or Cornell hosting Columbia.

These rematches coming so quickly are always pretty interesting. The coaches can adjust quickly and many times you see very different games. Last year Columbia and Cornell split two very low scoring games. Harvard lost control of Dartmouth's guards in the second game last year and the Big Green got a split. Yale won both from Brown but the second one was very tight.

I expect a little of the opposite from Yale this year. I think they will comfortably beat Brown tomorrow night.

The other two I think are legitimate toss ups. Columbia in particularly has the ability to blow out Brown but also the variance to really slip up.

Harvard has shown itself able to stay in games with the toughest teams in the country, but hasn't shown much of an ability to really separate from teams it should be beating more easily.

It will be interesting to see if either of the other two games are changed due to weather.

Back tomorrow with a Yale-Brown pick.

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Did not get to post but bet Yale -7 at Brown.

Here is the text exchange between a friend of mine and me:

Him: Yale -7 at Brown?

Me: Gotta get a bet in. Love yale. Rebound theory. Major line over correction

And it was. Yale 90, Brown 66.

Haven't looked at the stats yet to know what happened other than Yale dominating.

Tomorrow the Cs play and Harvard and Dartmouth

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Today's picks were Harvard -4 and Columbia -5.5.

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So, Harvard's leading Dartmouth 40-29 at the 11:00 minute mark of the second half, and things are looking good. Harvard isn't playing great, but they've put the clamps on defensively and are getting enough offense, mostly from Zena to build a bit of a cushion.

Enter Malik Gill.

I mentioned him in the Dartmouth team preview and in the note about last year's games. He didn't play at all two weeks ago in Cambridge, which was surprising to me because he's given Harvard fits for two years. He runs off four quick points with a steal in between. After another bucket, Gill gets another steal and Dartmouth hits a three. Two missed free throws by Zena and another Dartmouth three and suddenly Dartmouth has run off 12 in a row and leads 41-40.

Harvard quelled the storm for a little bit, but the damage was pretty much done. Dartmouth extended the lead to 54-44 (that's a 25-4 run for a team who doesn't do 12-4 runs).

The Big Green kind of cruised the last few minutes and used free throws to extend the lead for an eventual 63-50 victory.

It's hard to know exactly what went wrong for Harvard. There were missed free throws (6 of 20 on the day). There were 14 turnovers, including 4 steals by Gill. There was Evan Boudreaux again who had 18.

All in all a very frustrating loss in a game that was almost in hand.

For Harvard, it is again time to check its privilege and find out what kind of team it is. At 2-6 to start the season, the Crimson did that once. Now at 1-1 in Ivy play with the other leaders holding serve, they have to do it again.

It's hard, at this point to see how that happens. Quite frankly the team looks out of sorts. As well as they were playing in Hawaii, with chemistry galore, they just look awful offensively. And the free throws are a huge problem. Harvard is still good enough defensively to stay in every game. They must find the offensive production to win them.

Need to straighten it out against Cornell before the first test against another contender in Columbia on Saturday.

For Dartmouth, could this be a springboard to the top half of the league? Who knows? Three thoughts on Dartmouth from this game.

1. Evan Boudreaux is legit. He has range and can play inside. He will anchor this team for the next four years.

2. Dartmouth did this Saturday despite really getting nothing from Myles Wright, their 1 or 1A option. Okolie locked him down and then got him in foul trouble on the other end.

3. If Dartmouth can use Gill effectively, they can cause havoc against anyone in the league. He's the fastest player in the league, but has a tendency to play a bit out of control.

They are a fascinating team to watch.

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In the other Saturday game, Columbia beat Cornell 79-68. It was really what Columbia can be--they shot 50% from the field, including 13-24 from three.

Still their defense wasn't great--Cornell shot 5-26 from three, many being good looks.

Cs visit Harvard and Dartmouth this weekend.

Ps visit Yale and Brown.

It's going to be fun.

Bet wise, we finished the weekend 2-1, and are 3-4 on the season. 0-2 of that are the Harvard games, which you might call a blind spot. I'm not quite ready to call it that yet, as my thinking on the first game was almost spot on, and the second game looked to be heading that way too until this crazy final ten minutes where Harvard was outscored 34-10 (five more points than Dartmouth had scored in the first 30 minutes of the game). Nevertheless, the blind spot is certainly something to watch (ahem, pun intended).

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Early preview for this weekend--the first back to back weekend of the season.

First, the games

Friday
Penn at Yale
Princeton at Brown
Cornell at Harvard
Columbia at Dartmouth

Saturday
Princeton at Yale
Penn at Brown
Cornell at Dartmouth
Columbia at Harvard

Last year's results:
Harvard 3-1 vs. the Cs (1 loss at Cornell)
Yale 4-0 vs. the Ps
Princeton 2-2 vs. Y&B (2 losses to Y)
Columbia 0-4 vs. H&D
Dartmouth 3-1 vs. the Cs (1 loss to Cornell)
Cornell 2-2 vs. H&D
Brown 2-2 vs. the Ps (2 wins vs. Penn)
Penn 0-4 vs. Y&B

Team by team mini-breakdowns.

The thing that jumps out at me is that Columbia went 0-4 vs. Harvard and Dartmouth. Looking a little more closely, both times Columbia played those two teams they had gotten to .500 in the Ivy standings and looked ready to make a move to the top half of the league. Harvard jumped on the twice for big first half leads and sort of cruised to victories where the scores were closer than the games actually were. Dartmouth ran away from them in the second half both games. It goes without saying that Columbia has to avoid a repeat performance if it is really going to play at the top of the league.

Obviously, the weekend is huge for Harvard in not getting left behind. To stay in the race, the Crimson really have to sweep. 2-2 with a trip to Princeton on the horizon would make it an even steeper hill to climb. In the game Harvard lost to Cornell last year, they shot 25% from the floor and 60% from the line. That's the Dartmouth recipe from last weekend.

Dartmouth has a chance to establish itself as more than a spoiler and a legit top half candidate. It's hard to know what to make of them...how do you get past the non-league play versus how they've played the last three weeks? Or are they just a weird match-up for Harvard? I think the Friday night game versus Columbia is really juicy.

It will be interesting to see what happens with Cornell. They have been playing without Hatter, their best player. They have enough talent to give some teams trouble, but I could also see them just mailing it in.

With a loss to St. Joseph's last Wednesday, Penn has now lost 8 of 10 with the only wins being against D3 Ursinus and Binghamton. It's tough to see them really challenging Yale on Friday night, but they were able to get up for the Princeton game. Penn actually led Yale with three minutes left last year in New Haven, so anything is possible. I'm thinking it's an 0-2 Quaker road trip though.

Brown is similar to Cornell and Penn in that their season could go either way. They could fight and find a way to finish in the middle of the pack of the league or they could end up way, way off the pace. Beating Penn on Saturday would be a way to avoid the basement.

Princeton polished off Bryn Athyn 100-44 on Sunday to finish its non-league play. They handled Brown easily last year and I'd expect them to do the same on Friday night. That sets up the feature game of the weekend on Saturday night against Yale. It should be a really fun one to watch. Lots of questions about whether Princeton can contain Justin Sears and where its offense will come from. I'm excited for Saturday night.

Yale begins its march to the title in earnest. I really am starting to think that they have a very good chance to roll through the league. I just don't see a ton of weaknesses, especially relative to the league. They have top 2 or three guard play and top front court play in the league. This weekend could go a long way in cementing my theory.

Game of the Week
Saturday night, Princeton at Yale

Team with the Most to Gain
I'll say Dartmouth, just because expectations are lower. For the contenders it is about holding serve.

Team with the Most to Lose
Harvard

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Alright, Friday night! The first one of Ivy play.

The Ivy League Digital Network does a cool thing where they let you "quad view" all four games at the same time. That may be essential later in the season. Tonight, I'll probably focus on Harvard-Cornell. Previews and picks.

Harvard vs. Cornell (Harvard -11)

So, funny thing with Cornell. They are actually trying to run. They have the most possessions per game and the shortest offensive possessions on average (around 15 seconds). By contrast, Harvard has the longest offensive possessions (over 19 seconds). So we have two seemingly different styles with different strengths.

Robert Hatter and Matt Morgan try to run the ball and fire threes, while Harvard plays inside out, mainly through Zena.

The cat is out of the bag on beating Harvard. You foul them. The good news for the Crimson is that Cornell doesn't shoot a heck of a lot better from the free throw line. While Harvard is dead last in the nation at 58% as a team, Cornell is just a few spots higher at 62%. Could make for a long last five minutes.

The key to me will be the turnover battle. Harvard has struggled at times keeping the ball. When it does, the offense is very efficient. Cornell too can get ahead of itself and throw the ball away.

My sense is that Harvard is a few possessions better, but between turnovers, free throws and a slower style, it is not 11 points better. I think there will be periods of no scoring, which probably benefits Cornell even given their desire to run.

I'll say Harvard 66-58, but take Cornell with the points.

Yale vs. Penn (Yale -13.5)

Makai Mason and Justin Sears will be too much for Penn. That's true for pretty much every opponent in the league.

I'd like to figure out a way Penn can keep this close. Maybe they suddenly start hitting three pointers (close to last in the nation in 3p% currently), maybe they play good defense (last in the league in steals and forcing turnovers), maybe they get Yale in foul trouble (last in the league in free throws attempted. Nah, can't really see any of that.

Lay the points, Yale 80-61.

Princeton at Brown (Princeton -8)

Brown comes off its spanking against Yale last weekend to get the other best team in the league. Princeton, meanwhile, beat up on a church league team last week.

No surprise, Princeton is really efficient on offense. Brown is not good on defense, and they are the other team besides Cornell that likes to get up and down the floor. That's usually a recipe for a blow out.

For me it comes down to three point shooting. Both teams shoot the ball pretty well from outside. If one does it better than the other, then that's likely the difference in the game. The bet here is that Princeton does.

Tigers, 75-63.

Columbia at Dartmouth (Columbia -3.5)

This has the potential to be the best game of the day. Dartmouth seems to have found itself the last few weeks. They are riding their freshman stud Evan Boudreaux and getting contributions from Myles Wright and others. Dartmouth certainly looks like the best of the rest and may be good enough to challenge for the #4 spot.

I've detailed the Columbia story. They are really fun offensively and a mess defensively. Lo is the best guard in the league and could take over a game like this. He gets help from a number of spots, including Rosenberg and Kyle Castlin.

From a betting perspective, this line is on the number. If it was 2.5, I'd take Columbia in a heart beat. At 3.5, I pause. It has been moving upwards too, so I may see where we stand closer to game time. One thing though, Dartmouth is 5-1 in its last 6 vs. the spread and Columbia is 2-4.

I will take Columbia in the game 73-70, but take the points on the Big Green.

Picks
Cornell +11
Yale -13.5
Princeton -8
Dartmouth +3.5

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After line moves, we got:

Cornell +10
Yale -13
Princeton -9.5
Dartmouth +4

This is not like last week where there was a ton of value on Yale in particular. I think all of these games are pretty close to the number and don't feel great about any of them. But not feeling great is not the point of the dynasty. We make picks.

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Well, there are three contenders left.

Yale, Princeton and Columbia absolutely took care of business last night, blowing out Penn, Brown and Dartmouth.

Harvard monkeyed around with Cornell, fell behind by 15 at the end of the first half, stormed back to take a lead and then got outshot in the last five minutes of the game. At 1-2, with 6 games against the big boys, Harvard will be fighting for a top four position, not the league title. Disappointing, but it is the same old story, poor free throw shooting and turnovers dug a hole. Cornell then hit some fantastic shots to put the game away.

On the pick side, 3-1 last night to move to 6-5 for the season.

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Not much time today but I have.

Harvard +1.5
Even though they are playing poorly I still think you are supposed to take points with the Crimson at home.

Princeton +4
Just a gut feel on this one. I think Yale may end up winning the league but think Princeton is being overlooked right now.

Cornell +4
I think they will make Dartmouth play sloppy.

Brown -1
Penn is just out of sorts right now.

[digamma]

Fun night in the league. Not a fun night to be a Harvard fan.

The Crimson played their best 20 minutes of basketball of the season and led Columbia 29-9 and then 32-17 at the half. Second half was the reverse with Columbia pulling back to even the game. Still Harvard took the lead 54-53 with 30 seconds left and got not one but two stops against the league's best offense. Unfortunately, the Crimson missed the front end of one and ones on both trips. Columbia got the rebound of the second miss with seven seconds left, drove down and found Alex Rosenberg who hit an off balance 15 footer (nothing but the bottom of the net) as the buzzer went off.

Huge win for Columbia. They come out of the weekend 4-0, setting up a huge game with Yale next Friday night.

Speaking of Yale, they controlled the game with Princeton for the most part, shooting almost 60% from the floor, including 11-19 from three. They couldn't put the game out of reach (also due in part to bad free throw shooting). In the end, Princeton could never push past Yale and Yale holds serve at home 79-75. Also a big win for Yale. They did what they were supposed to do.

If you are Princeton though, you maybe take heart that you took Yale's best shot and weren't out of the game. Princeton has the best home court advantage in the league, so we'll see what happens in the rematch in a few weeks.

Elsewhere, Cornell put Dartmouth away late and Brown did the same with Penn.

So, after our first full weekend of Ivy play, Columbia and Yale sit at 4-0 and Princeton is at 2-1. Cornell holds the 4th spot right now at 2-2. Brown, Dartmouth and Harvard all have one win a piece and Penn is still looking to get into the W column.

Huge weekend for the Cs and for Yale. They all tangle next weekend, and the Ps host Harvard and Dartmouth. As we said yesterday, it is a three team race for the title now. Yale, Columbia and Princeton.

Picks wise we had a good night, going 3-0-1. That takes us to 9-5-1 for the season.

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Was in London this week and just got back. Only was able to get two games bet. Harvard +10.5 at Princeton and Brown +2.5 vs Cornell.

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I should probably check injury reports, but yesterday was hurried. Turns out Zena was injured with an undisclosed lower extremity injury. That turns an already shaky Harvard team into a bad one. Princeton had no trouble, jumped out to an early lead, survived one Harvard run early in the second half and then cruised to an 83-62 win.

Betting wise, I was right on Brown and Cornell. Brown won 86-80. Cornell was due to come back down a little bit from last weekend.

I didn't get to bet Dartmouth and Penn or Yale and Columbia because of earlier start times. I likely would have been on the wrong side of those games, as I liked Columbia to keep it close (they didn't) and Penn to give up (they didn't either).

League wise, Yale continues to shine. They are 5-0 and look to have an easy one tonight against Cornell--Cornell can't match them inside. Columbia fell one game off the pace and now must hold serve versus a Brown team that is actually a weird match up for the Lions. Brown will push the pace and if Columbia is sloppy, they could get into a bit of a messy game.

Princeton looks like a real challenger to Yale. They should handle Dartmouth tonight.

And in what no one would have predicted, we have a battle for the basement between Penn and Harvard. If Zena is still out, the inside match-up favors Penn.

Picks later.

[digamma]

Not a ton of analysis this week. Oh well.

I don't expect many surprises tonight, but do like a few underdogs to cover.

I have:
Dartmouth +15.5 vs. Princeton: Weirdly I think Dartmouth matches up a little better (than either vs. Penn or than Harvard vs. Princeton) and Princeton shot the lights out last night. If they do that again, shame on me.

Harvard +1 at Penn: If Zena plays (big if), this line has a lot of value. If not, I think there is still value here, but it is tight.

Yale -13.5 vs. Cornell: Going with the Yale is curb stomping bad teams, so let's keep riding it theory.

Brown +7 vs. Columbia: Weird momentum game of Brown winning two in a row and Columbia getting the wind taken out of its sails last night.

For the season we are 10-6-1. Let's see how we wake up tomorrow.

Go Crimson.

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So, I give up on trying to figure out my Crimson. They are a shell of themselves. Aside from a first four minutes stretch where they jumped out to a 7-0 lead, they were thoroughly outplayed by Penn, and lost by 10.

Now you might throw away this weekend because Zena sat out, but this is still a team that was tied with Providence at the 11:00 minute time out of the second half, was in a 1 possession game with 25 seconds left at Kansas, beat BYU and led Oklahoma at the half (and had the ball down 5 with under three minutes left).

In two weeks they've gone from legit shot at an Ivy title to legit shot at the Ivy basement. At 1-5 it would seem things can only get better, but Yale is waiting next weekend.

Elsewhere the night went pretty much as I thought.

The Yale curb stomping continued. They beat Cornell by like a million.

Princeton controlled the game against Dartmouth but was never able to stretch out the lead. Princeton wins 83-70.

Columbia and Brown fought to the end with Columbia able to hit free throws late to make it a two possession game and win by 4.

So, just short of the halfway mark, we have Yale in the driver's seat at 6-0, with two important wins over Princeton and Columbia. Princeton and Columbia have taken care of their own business though, and both have only one loss. Next weekend they have a huge game in Harlem to see who can stay within one game of Yale. I should note that Yale won both of those games at home and will have to navigate the Cs and Ps road trip on the back half of the schedule.

Fourth place in the league is up for grabs. Brown may be the favorite at this point, unless Harvard can find its earlier form.

Picks wise, we are up to 13-7-1. Still an obvious blind spot we need to figure out though!

[digamma]

At first glance, this looks like a nothing night in the league, but these are the nights that can surprise.

Yale (6-0) returns to the "scene of the crime" to take on Dartmouth (1-5). On paper, it's a mismatch, but Dartmouth can throw some weird match-ups at Yale. Evan Boudreaux can stretch Justin Sears defensively a bit and the Dartmouth guards are quick enough to keep up with Makai Mason and Jack Montague. The real difference in the game should be Brandon Sherrod for Yale. He's really the piece that Yale has that really only Princeton can kind of match. I think it will be a fun game to watch, with Yale able to stretch it out some in the second half.

Princeton (4-1) at Cornell (2-4). Cornell was riding high out of the Harvard-Dartmouth road trip two weeks ago before getting brought back down to earth last weekend against Brown and Yale. This is a really tricky weekend for Princeton. Cornell to Columbia is the worst road trip of the season, particularly when Columbia is the tougher game on a Saturday night. If Princeton is focused, the contrasting styles should allow the Tigers to blow out Cornell. They do what they do better than Cornell does what it does. But the focus part is a big if with Columbia waiting tomorrow night.

Penn (2-3) at Columbia (5-1). Penn showed signs of life last weekend. I had written them off. Still this is a game Columbia should win. Columbia, more so than Princeton, is the kind of team who can slip up and fall off the pace. The Lions need to take care of business tonight.

Brown (2-4) at Harvard (1-5). A basement battle! Quite frankly this comes down to whether Zena can play. Last weekend Harvard had no presence on the inside, which led to horrible defense on the outside. With Zena, Harvard is a 6-8 point pick. Without, it's probably even.

Incidentally, tomorrow night was set up to be kind of a marquis night in the league, with Princeton taking on Columbia and Yale taking on Harvard. Three of those four teams have delivered.

Lines with picks later.

[digamma]

We got:

Dartmouth +10 Going against the Yale smashes teams theory and with the this is a weird match-up with Dartmouth's fast and annoying guards.

Princeton -9 Basically what I said above. I think it could get ugly.

Columbia -9.5 Columbia has been the shakiest of the top three so far. Going with a hunch they're pretty focused tonight.

Brown +6.5 Zena's status unknown, I am not sure how you lay points with the Crimson right now, much less three possessions worth of points.

[digamma]

Scores from last night....

Princeton 85, Cornell 56
As suspected, Princeton was super efficient and Cornell wasn't. Princeton shot 50% from the field, 44% from three and 90% from the free throw line.

Yale 75, Dartmouth 65
Dartmouth controlled the first half and then actually stretched a lead to 45-38 with 15 minutes left. That's when Yale got serious. In the second half Yale hit 4-6 from three and 14-19 from the line (after being 2-9 and 9-16 respectively in the first). Side note, Dartmouth's Evan Boudreaux probably locked up the rookie of the year award, going 21-10 against the league's best player.

Columbia 63, Penn 53
Columbia didn't quite put it together like I thought they would, but they weren't really threatened in the second half either. They stretched the lead to 16 at one point and cruised, getting some bench minutes to save stamina for the Princeton game.

Harvard 79, Brown 73
Harvard lives ups and downs of its season in each game. The Crimson jumped out to a 15-7 lead, only to go to sleep offensively and trail at the half 33-28. They stormed out of the break and built a 10 point lead, but again free throw shooting kept Brown in the game and all of a sudden with 17 seconds left we have a one possession game. Harvard was able to hit some free throws to provide the final win. This team.


Picks
We went 3-0-1, but let's call this a victory for Vegas. Two games were decided by the hook (Columbia wins by 10 giving 9.5 and Brown covers the 6.5 by a hair) and we had a push in the Yale game. For the season we are now 16-7-1.

Early thoughts on tonight...
Focus should be on Princeton-Columbia. Princeton is playing the best basketball in the league over the last two weeks. Columbia can struggle defensively, which plays into Princeton's hands. That said, I think Columbia will be really fired up for the game. The line will be pretty close to even, or Princeton slightly favored.

Yale should be about a 6 point pick at Harvard. I don't think it is a great match up for Harvard. Last year, Harvard could match Steve Mondou-Missi up with Justin Sears and that would be that. Harvard doesn't have that kind of post defensive player this year, and they have no real depth in the front court. My sense is they initially put Evan Cummins on Sears. Makai Mason should really be the difference. If Siyani Chambers was playing, that's a top notch match-up, but Mason is just better than either Tommy McCarthy or Corbin Miller. I'd like to pick the upset, but I just don't see it.

Brown at Dartmouth. Who knows if Dartmouth can pick itself up from playing pretty well against Yale before falling in the last quarter of the game?

Penn at Cornell. Cornell has lost its last two games by a total of 60 points. But Penn has to drive to Cornell.

[digamma]

Picks tonight:

Columbia +4 vs. Princeton. I think Columbia is going to be jacked up. They also rested starters in the last ten minutes last night (as did Princeton), but don't have to deal with driving in from Ithaca. I think that's enough to slow the Princeton freight train to a single possession game.

Penn +3 at Cornell. Like I said, I'm just not sure how you lay points on Cornell right now. The computers make Cornell the pick, but that's over a season's worth of work and not the last two weeks. Give me the Quakers and the points.

Brown +4 at Dartmouth. Dartmouth laid it on the line last night and really played Yale tough. I think there's a bit of a hangover effect there. I think Brown jumps out early and can win straight up.

Harvard +7.5 vs. Yale. It's just a decent amount of points at home for Harvard. I think it will be really interesting to watch the match ups. I'm really worried about how the Yale guards do against Harvard, but like with Columbia I expect Harvard to be pretty focused.

Slight correction above, record for the season is 16-7-2.

[digamma]

The basketball gods are a fickle bunch.

Princeton gets outplayed for 39 minutes and then finds two three pointers in the last 11 seconds of the game to force overtime. Columbia then jumps out to a lead in OT, scoring the first 7 points to lead 83-76 with 2;06 left. Princeton then strings together two old fashioned three point plays to make it 83-82. They get a stop and take the lead with 49 seconds left. Columbia misses again and the Tigers hit free throws to make it 86-83. Columbia misses a three at the buzzer, but wait a foul on the rebound with less than a second left gives Princeton two more points and a cover 88-83.

Pretty much right on about the game and how Columbia came out and we pay for it in the end. Oh well. League wise, Princeton makes this pretty much a two team race. Columbia is now two back, with a trip to Princeton and Yale at home. I'd throw in an additional loss for the Lions to put them at 9-5 for the season.

Princeton got a huge game from their big man Pete Miller, who was 9-10 from the field. They got 23 from Devin Cannady off the bench too, including both of the three pointers in the last 11 seconds.

Lions fans will point to the free throw disparity. Princeton shot 36 free throws on a Saturday night in Harlem. The Lions only shot 18.

Yale controlled the game against Harvard from about the ten minute mark of the first half. Still Harvard made a mad run at the end to cut the lead to 10. Yale held on with free throws 67-55. At 8-0, Yale looks very, very good. They still have four road games left, including a trip to Princeton.

These two teams are good enough that people are starting to mention both at 13-1 and a two bid league. I don't think either is a real consideration because they didn't win a big game outside the conference. If Yale had been able to beat Illinois or SMU, then we might be talking.

I was exactly wrong about the Brown Dartmouth game. Dartmouth was hot from the beginning and blew Brown out 90-72.

We balanced that with a win in the Penn-Cornell game. Quakers in a high scoring one, 92-84.

Next week is the big one on Saturday night. Princeton-Yale II in New Jersey. Yale will have to get by a resurgent Penn squad on Friday night while Princeton will host Brown. The Cs host the Dartmouth/Harvard trip.

We went 1-3 last night--THANKS COLUMBIA--and sit at 17-10-2 for the season.