2015 NBA Offseason Thread

[miami_fan]

The lottery is tomorrow so I thought this would be as good a time as any to get the offseason thread going. Here is the draft order pre lottery.

1. Minnesota 16-66 (.195) [250 = number of chances in Draft Lottery]
2. New York 17-65 (.207) [199]
3. Philadelphia 18-64 (.220) [156]
4. L.A. Lakers* 21-61 (.256) [119]
5. Orlando 25-57 (.305) [88]
6. Sacramento 29-53 (.354) [63]
7. Denver 30-52 (.366) [43]
8. Detroit 32-50 (.390) [28]
9. Charlotte 33-49 (.402) [17]
10. Miami** 37-45 (.451) [11]
11. Indiana 38-44 (.463) [8]
12. Utah 38-44 (.463) [7]
13. Phoenix 39-43 (.476) [6]
14. Oklahoma City 45-37 (.549) [5]
15. Brooklyn*** 38-44 (.463)
16. Boston 40-42 (.488)
17. Milwaukee 41-41 (.500)
18. New Orleans (To Houston) 45-37 (.549)
19. Washington 46-36 (.561)
20. Toronto 49-33 (.598)
21. Dallas 50-32 (.610)
22. Chicago^ 50-32 (.610)
23. Portland 51-31 (.622)
24. Cleveland^^ 53-29 (.646)
25. Memphis 55-27 (.671)
26. San Antonio 55-27 (.671)
27. Houston (To L.A. Lakers) 56-26 (.683)
28. L.A. Clippers (To Boston) 56-26 (.683)
29. Atlanta^^^ 60-22 (.732)
30. Golden State 67-15 (.817)

* This pick may be conveyed to Philadelphia via Phoenix.
** This pick may be conveyed to Philadelphia via Cleveland.
*** This pick may be conveyed to Atlanta.
^ This pick may be conveyed to Cleveland.
^^ This pick may be conveyed to Chicago.
^^^ This pick may be conveyed to Brooklyn.

[miami_fan]

For a bit of perspective going into the draft, here is the 2010 draft class.

[stevew]

Any good lotto conspiracies? I really hope that Indy goes top 3 and that ends up forcing the Lakers to 6th and Heat to 11th.

[Logan]

I found myself standing next to actor/director Michael Rapaport in midtown early today as we were waiting to cross the street. Walked with him for a couple blocks. The guy just made a 30 for 30 on the glory days of the Knicks and he had no idea that they had a good shot at getting the #1 pick tonight.

[spleen1015]

I don't see any lights out superstars in this draft.

I hope the Pacers pick someone that's going to be worth a shit instead of another Plumlee.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by stevew

Any good lotto conspiracies?

Just the typical, "The League will screw the Timberwolves," conspiracy.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by stevew

Any good lotto conspiracies? I really hope that Indy goes top 3 and that ends up forcing the Lakers to 6th and Heat to 11th.

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.c...ttery-100-not/

[nol]

Every possible outcome is a conspiracy, but the Lakers losing the pick is the funniest one that has more than a 1% chance of happening.

[MrBug708]

I fully expect the league to continue to dick over the Lakers

[Lathum]

Teams really miss out on a nice PR move when the owner or GM is the one who shows up at the draft lottery as the team representative. #bucksownerhotdaughter

[MrBug708]

Woo!

[Lathum]

LOL Knicks

[mckerney]

Wooooo!!! Tanking works!

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Just the typical, "The League will screw the Timberwolves," conspiracy.

Pop the corks!

Minnesota Timberwolves

Odds of winning the lottery: 25.0% 100%

The NBA wants to tap deeper into the Canadian market. See the league’s flirtation with Montreal. Marketing the Raptors would have been the easy route, but they’re fizzling. The next-best option: Selling Andrew Wiggins, a native Canadian and budding superstar. That gets easier when the Timberwolves get better. (That they also have Canadian Anthony Bennett and Vince Carter‘s closest dunking heir apparent, Zach LaVine, only helps.) The NBA will give Minnesota the No. 1 pick and gain a huge following across an entire country.

[Arles]

Feeling better about the Suns trade for Knight. With a healthy Kobe, Randall, #2 pick and two High priced FAs, that pick lost a lot of value getting pushed to next year.

[stevew]

Can we please never hear about the Wolves "never moving up in the lottery" again. I know first to first isn't moving up but it's close enough.

[jbergey22]

Interesting decision ahead for the wolves. Okafor seems safe and maybe an Amare Stoudamire type player from pre-injury years. KAT on the other hand seems to have the athletic talent to become Anthony Davis or the non interest to become Hasheem Thabeet.

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by Arles

Feeling better about the Suns trade for Knight. With a healthy Kobe, Randall, #2 pick and two High priced FAs, that pick lost a lot of value getting pushed to next year.

Good luck with that happening. It's Randle, BTW.

The key is going to be the FA pickups. I'm not sold on Clarkson as a long-term answer at all, though the huge Filipino and Laker fan contingent here in town thinks he's amazing. To me he's a 2nd round steal, but also put up inflated stats on a shit team.

I personally don't think Kobe has anything left, and should have retired a year or two ago But we'll have to suffer through another year of him and the obnoxious hyping.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Arles

Feeling better about the Suns trade for Knight. With a healthy Kobe, Randall, #2 pick and two High priced FAs, that pick lost a lot of value getting pushed to next year.

Lakers are not making the playoffs next year. It's a lottery pick for Brandon Knight. Maybe that's worth it but the Lakers are not going to be good for a couple years.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Interesting decision ahead for the wolves. Okafor seems safe and maybe an Amare Stoudamire type player from pre-injury years. KAT on the other hand seems to have the athletic talent to become Anthony Davis or the non interest to become Hasheem Thabeet.

Kind of reminds me of the Wiggins or Parker debate. Parker seems more polished and you know what you're getting. Wiggins had the enormous upside.

Either way, a nice little rebuild for the Wolves. They'll have the last 3 #1 picks on their roster next season.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Teams really miss out on a nice PR move when the owner or GM is the one who shows up at the draft lottery as the team representative. #bucksownerhotdaughter

According to Deadspin, the NBA instituted a no family member rule this year.

[Fidatelo]

"Today was very nerve wracking. I really didn't anticipate that it would go this way," owner Glen Taylor said. "People say you have a 25 per cent to win but I always look at it that there's a 75 per cent chance that someone else is going to win. I just feel very honoured that we have the chance to be in this position."

LOL

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

LOL

double LOL

[molson]

Well hey, that team had a goal and they accomplished it, he has the right to be proud. Unlike say, the Jazz, who cost themselves 4-5 spots in the draft and a better shot at a top-3 pick by committing the gravest sin in the NBA, something that the system deems worthy of punishment - coming together as a team and winning basketball games.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Kind of reminds me of the Wiggins or Parker debate. Parker seems more polished and you know what you're getting. Wiggins had the enormous upside.

Either way, a nice little rebuild for the Wolves. They'll have the last 3 #1 picks on their roster next season.

I agree. The debate is very similar. The only thing that will be holding the Wolves back in the next couple of years is Rubio and the PG situation.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Either way, a nice little rebuild for the Wolves. They'll have the last 3 #1 picks on their roster next season.

That looks like the kind of thing you would do in FBB and decide you need to give yourself some house rules.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Lakers are not making the playoffs next year. It's a lottery pick for Brandon Knight. Maybe that's worth it but the Lakers are not going to be good for a couple years.

Knight is a lottery pick that reached his potential. Given the crapshoot the lottery is, I think trading one that will probably be in the 9-12 range next season for a guy taken #8 who has proven himself in the league (and is still just 23) makes sense. Had the Lakers pick ended up 6, that would have been a tough pill as the #6 player in this draft appears to me a much better prospect than 9-12 next year (plus you get that player a year earlier).

As to the Lakers, I don't think they will make the playoffs, but I can see them being similar to Utah or Phoenix this year (finish in the 36-40 win range). Given they won't be keeping their pick for sure, I'm guessing they will try to hit the end of the lottery or sneak in as the 8th seed.

Here's an interesting question for them, though. Most of the good guards/SF in the FA pool are restricted (Kawhi, Butler, Knight, Reggie Jackson, Middleton). There are a ton of PF/C types that are unrestricted though (Gasol, Aldridge, Jordan, Lopez, Millsap, Monroe, Chandler, Love?). If you take Okafor, you are better at the front court with Okafor, Randle and Hill - but lack guards/SF. So you are forced to try and steal an RFA (not easy) or go after a second tier guy like Monta Ellis (ugh, pairing him with Kobe and Young - ouch), Rondo (who knows where he is physically/mentally) or a 3rd tier option like Lou Williams. On the other hand, you can take D'Angelo Russell to lock down your PG/SG slot for the future and go after a better/more likely FA option in the frontcourt like Jordan, Gasol, Millsap, Monroe, Chandler or one of the Lopez brothers (and maybe even Love).

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

I agree. The debate is very similar. The only thing that will be holding the Wolves back in the next couple of years is Rubio and the PG situation.

That and the hole at SG if Kevin Martin opts out after next season. It will poetically be best long term if they can hold onto their pick next year and draft someone who can fill that spot. If they're able to do that they may be able to get by with Rubio.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Arles

Knight is a lottery pick that reached his potential. Given the crapshoot the lottery is, I think trading one that will probably be in the 9-12 range next season for a guy taken #8 who has proven himself in the league (and is still just 23) makes sense. Had the Lakers pick ended up 6, that would have been a tough pill as the #6 player in this draft appears to me a much better prospect than 9-12 next year (plus you get that player a year earlier).

As to the Lakers, I don't think they will make the playoffs, but I can see them being similar to Utah or Phoenix this year (finish in the 36-40 win range). Given they won't be keeping their pick for sure, I'm guessing they will try to hit the end of the lottery or sneak in as the 8th seed.

Here's an interesting question for them, though. Most of the good guards/SF in the FA pool are restricted (Kawhi, Butler, Knight, Reggie Jackson, Middleton). There are a ton of PF/C types that are unrestricted though (Gasol, Aldridge, Jordan, Lopez, Millsap, Monroe, Chandler, Love?). If you take Okafor, you are better at the front court with Okafor, Randle and Hill - but lack guards/SF. So you are forced to try and steal an RFA (not easy) or go after a second tier guy like Monta Ellis (ugh, pairing him with Kobe and Young - ouch), Rondo (who knows where he is physically/mentally) or a 3rd tier option like Lou Williams. On the other hand, you can take D'Angelo Russell to lock down your PG/SG slot for the future and go after a better/more likely FA option in the frontcourt like Jordan, Gasol, Millsap, Monroe, Chandler or one of the Lopez brothers (and maybe even Love).

Or see what you could get from NY and take Mudaiy?

[whomario]

Originally Posted by mckerney

If they're able to do that they may be able to get by with Rubio.

am i missing sth? Health is an issue, but the wolves looked respectable it even good whenever rubio was on the court the last 2 seasons and clearly better than without him.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by Arles

Here's an interesting question for them, though. Most of the good guards/SF in the FA pool are restricted (Kawhi, Butler, Knight, Reggie Jackson, Middleton). There are a ton of PF/C types that are unrestricted though (Gasol, Aldridge, Jordan, Lopez, Millsap, Monroe, Chandler, Love?). If you take Okafor, you are better at the front court with Okafor, Randle and Hill - but lack guards/SF. So you are forced to try and steal an RFA (not easy) or go after a second tier guy like Monta Ellis (ugh, pairing him with Kobe and Young - ouch), Rondo (who knows where he is physically/mentally) or a 3rd tier option like Lou Williams. On the other hand, you can take D'Angelo Russell to lock down your PG/SG slot for the future and go after a better/more likely FA option in the frontcourt like Jordan, Gasol, Millsap, Monroe, Chandler or one of the Lopez brothers (and maybe even Love).

But I think the question of the offseason is what player will sign more than a 1 year deal. Isn't the cap for next year around 65 and then it jumps by 20 million for 16-17 with the new TV deal.

It seems like the Lakers are banking on that scenario happening so when Kobe comes off the books they can rebuild a starting 5 around Randle and the #1 from this season by offering 3 max contracts with the new cap.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by whomario

am i missing sth? Health is an issue, but the wolves looked respectable it even good whenever rubio was on the court the last 2 seasons and clearly better than without him.

I don't feel like Rubio gets them to the promised land, but I admit that's a gut feel. Flashy passer, but has he learned to shoot yet? And the health issue can't be ignored.

[nol]

Towns over Okafor should not be hard for the Wolves. This year's worst defensive team needs all the help it can get, and Wiggins needs all the spacing help he can get because it's not going to come from a Flip Saunders offense.

The Knicks don't have anything worth trading down for and are probably more likely to trade down themselves.

[whomario]

The wolves are a ways from even thinking about “the promised land“. Have a season of playing to win is the first step and if after a Playoffs apearance of 2 you cant find a way to compensate for his lack of shooting (there were some good signs befindet things went to hell this season i thought...), his contract will be up.
I think there is an attainable Combination of players including rubio that can be successfull. He simply does have an ability to make players better (“flashy“ sells him way short. He is flashy in the same Sense nash was a “flashy passer“. Its not empty antics ...) and is a really good defender who would be even more effective with even a semblance of rim protection behind hin.

[jbergey22]

Rubio would be a nice PG off of the bench. His defense is the quality about him that makes him a liability as a starting PG. He cant defend a decent point guard and the all stars embarrass him. His subpar shooting is only his 2nd worst quality He has a place in this league and is fun to watch. Just not as a starting point guard on a playoff team.

[nol]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Rubio would be a nice PG off of the bench. His defense is the quality about him that makes him a liability as a starting PG. He cant defend a decent point guard and the all stars embarrass him. His subpar shooting is only his 2nd worst quality He has a place in this league and is fun to watch. Just not as a starting point guard on a playoff team.

You are confusing "white and European" with "not being able to play defense." By all accounts Rubio is somewhere around a top-five defensive point guard. I'd put Paul, Beverly, and Wall above him but after that it's up for debate. It's a lot easier for someone like George Hill or Mike Conley to look like a great defender (and both are good in their own right) when a Paul George/Tony Allen is able to shift over and guard tough PGs and a Roy Hibbert/Marc Gasol is helping to clean up any mistakes.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by nol

You are confusing "white and European" with "not being able to play defense." By all accounts Rubio is somewhere around a top-five defensive point guard. I'd put Paul, Beverly, and Wall above him but after that it's up for debate. It's a lot easier for someone like George Hill or Mike Conley to look like a good defender when a Roy Hibbert/Marc Gasol is helping to clean up any mistakes.

He is awful on defense. The main reason I stopped following defensive metrics in the NBA. Yes, it certainly doesnt help that the wolves dont have a rim protector but Rubio cant stay in front of a guard with skills. He gets out of position and swipes at the ball and goes for steals. Looks great on the stat sheet getting the steals he does but doesnt help the wolves on defense playing 5 vs 4.

[whomario]

Thats simply not what 99% of people around or watching the nba judge him as. No offense intended, but that assessment seems way out there. He does try to do too much, but technique and instincts are top notch and half the reason in any case lies with the “help“. Heck, dellavedova just checked rose fullcourt with success due to having reliable helpdefense.

He has similar problems perception-wise to prime kirilenko (compared to, say, a battier) in that he overrrotates rather than taking the simple road. He literally is prepared to guard each player every play and i am absolutely sure he is a major boon to the defense even when he gets scored on due to it at times. Kinda like an agressive sweeper keeper in soccer (like Manuel neuer) can look stupid every once in a while and his coach will never mind.

In any case, every pg gets scored on plenty in the modern nba. Theres a reason guys like thibodeau have stuck as coaches, effective defense is a tough thing to achieve under the current rules and 1:1 defense has become near impossible.

[jbergey22]

Well the wolves were 29th in the league at defending point guards last year. Other teams dont have great rim protectors either and arent 2nd worst in the entire league. The previous two years they were 27th and 24th.

NBA Team Opponents Stats 2014-2015 - NBA Fantasy Basketball Stats

[Sublime 2]

Originally Posted by nol

Towns over Okafor should not be hard for the Wolves. This year's worst defensive team needs all the help it can get, and Wiggins needs all the spacing help he can get because it's not going to come from a Flip Saunders offense.

The Knicks don't have anything worth trading down for and are probably more likely to trade down themselves.

I don't know, I feel like Okafor over Towns is just as reasonable (maybe not just as reasonable, but not out of this world either). Not that he's someone to build around, but putting Dieng next to Okafor should help cover for Okafor's defensive weaknesses. Offensively...that might be a muddled lane though.

I say this as an outsider, and only watching 5-6 TWolves games a year.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by whomario

Thats simply not what 99% of people around or watching the nba judge him as. No offense intended, but that assessment seems way out there. He does try to do too much, but technique and instincts are top notch and half the reason in any case lies with the “help“. Heck, dellavedova just checked rose fullcourt with success due to having reliable helpdefense.

He has similar problems perception-wise to prime kirilenko (compared to, say, a battier) in that he overrrotates rather than taking the simple road. He literally is prepared to guard each player every play and i am absolutely sure he is a major boon to the defense even when he gets scored on due to it at times. Kinda like an agressive sweeper keeper in soccer (like Manuel neuer) can look stupid every once in a while and his coach will never mind.

In any case, every pg gets scored on plenty in the modern nba. Theres a reason guys like thibodeau have stuck as coaches, effective defense is a tough thing to achieve under the current rules and 1:1 defense has become near impossible.

I agree with your last paragraph completely. The point guard does need a lot of help in todays NBA. Mostly because I watch a few Twolves games every year this myth that he is somehow a top defender in the league when the team stats or really nothing else back it up just really bothers me. Guys like Westbrook, Curry, and Lilliard constantly expose him. He might be able to look like a decent defender against a point guard without great ball skills but other than that he just gets himself out of position chasing steals.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Well the wolves were 29th in the league at defending point guards last year. Other teams dont have great rim protectors either and arent 2nd worst in the entire league. The previous two years they were 27th and 24th.

NBA Team Opponents Stats 2014-2015 - NBA Fantasy Basketball Stats

Well, the wolves were about the worst defensive team in history positions 1-5 by that measure , rubio played only 20% of the minutes in which the wolves were markedly better and if you dont trust defensive stats as clear and basic as any sort of impact/replacement value type stuff then this is basically an impossibly to refute opinion. Which you are of course entitled to, just dont see a way to sway it.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by whomario

Well, the wolves were about the worst defensive team in history positions 1-5 by that measure , rubio played only 20% of the minutes in which the wolves were markedly better and if you dont trust defensive stats as clear and basic as any sort of impact/replacement value type stuff then this is basically an impossibly to refute opinion. Which you are of course entitled to, just dont see a way to sway it.

What defensive stats are you using anyway? I know that website that used replacement value is no longer operating. And Ive never considering DRTG a worthwhile stat since in varies so much from year to year where defense should be fairly consistent if its an accurate measure.

[nol]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

What defensive stats are you using anyway? I know that website that used replacement value is no longer operating. And Ive never considering DRTG a worthwhile stat since in varies so much from year to year where defense should be fairly consistent if its an accurate measure.

A good place to start would be that players like Love and Pekovic offered rim protection that was "worst in the league by a substantial margin" rather than "not great."

If you're more inclined to use the eye test, you could look at other players across the league and see whether they're out of position more or less often than Rubio was (if everyone was in position all the time, teams would average like 75 points a game). You could also look at how often Ricky Rubio had to guard a good SG or SF because someone like Kevin Martin is an extremely bad defender.

Or you could look at the just-released all defensive teams, see that Chris Paul (Clippers were 15th in defensive efficiency) was first team all defense, and conclude that a point guard has a lower impact on the team's overall defense than any other position. Or you could reach that same conclusion by seeing how the league's best defensive team has a point guard that is more or less average (I'd say above average, but I tend to get laughed at because Steph Curry doesn't have He-Man upper body strength so I'm allowing for some wiggle room) defensively.

All that to say that if I were writing a list of areas holding the Minnesota Timberwolves back from becoming a playoff team or a championship team or whatever, "Ricky Rubio needs to become a better individual defender" would probably not crack the top 500.

[whomario]

Right now i actually agree that there is simply no really convincibg/robust defensive rating for individual players, much less one that works in a vacuum. I merely see that the wolves go from beyond terrible to decent in basically every stat that differentiates wether a player was on the court. Which matches what i saw in timberwolves matches.

Hoping sports vu data will help, for frontcourt players rim protection looks solid f.e already.

Good article on what might be coming on that front. Department of Defense «

[nol]

Originally Posted by molson

Well hey, that team had a goal and they accomplished it, he has the right to be proud. Unlike say, the Jazz, who cost themselves 4-5 spots in the draft and a better shot at a top-3 pick by committing the gravest sin in the NBA, something that the system deems worthy of punishment - coming together as a team and winning basketball games.

In light of seeing stuff like Josh Smith and J.R. Smith going from playing so poorly on a couple of crappy teams that they were given up for pretty much nothing to almost single-handedly winning playoff games for conference finalists, it's fair to say that bad teams are already punished enough by everything except for the draft.

[stevew]

God I'd love to see Flip try to pair Rubio and Rondo together in a backcourt

[whomario]

Related to this: I think the Spurs will be a huge x-factor in Free Agency, definitely the most fluid situation right now and all depending on wether or not Duncan (and to a lesser extent Manu) retire and if then they want to blow it up or simply try to replace the 2.

[Vince, Pt. II]

I am enjoying that tweet far more than I probably should.

[nol]

Alvin Gentry got hired by New Orleans - if Anthony Davis becomes a 3-point shooter, it will probably be under this guy.

Fred Hoiberg is gonna be the Bulls' coach in all likelihood, which is good for them but will suck for Iowa State. Thibs is probably gonna sit the year out or at least be hovering around for anyone who gets fired midway through the season.