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Old 04-02-2015, 12:06 PM   #651
Glengoyne
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Fresno, CA
As I was catching up this morning I've gone from reading Grover's actions as a desperate good guy to a desperate bad guy, and finally just desperate. I voted for him yesterday with the thought that I'd rather see him get lynched than cheeki, who was the other leading candidate. Now I'm not seeing a viable alternative to lynching Grover today.

If he turns out to be good I think we have some insight into the game's mechanics. If he's a baddy, then it was all a bunch of lies that we can disregard but we've caught a wolf and there will be trails to sniff out and follow.

Vote Grover
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Old 04-02-2015, 12:14 PM   #652
Narcizo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raven View Post
I don't agree with your 2nd sentence. If he is village and knows he is village, he'd use the power to save himself, or else he is lynched and his power is gone from the game anyway. Not sure how this is different than a self preservation vote against the next top vote getter when you are in the running to get lynched.

Because no lynch is almost always a result for wolves. Unless he's a seer and can get a scan in. A double lynch is acceptable but obviously not what he was looking for.
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Old 04-02-2015, 12:15 PM   #653
Glengoyne
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Woo hoo I did manage to bold something on the tablet. I'm on a train for a few hours, and then I'll be running around Sacramento with the family and afk until the hour before deadline.

Regarding mechanics what is a nightfall vote? If it is what I'm guessing then I don't see that helps the us at all.
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Old 04-02-2015, 12:19 PM   #654
Narcizo
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Nightfall allows results to be found out quicker near end game. Everyone has to nightfall in order for the lynch to go through. No, it doesn't help the village.
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Old 04-02-2015, 12:20 PM   #655
path12
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Originally Posted by Raven View Post
I don't agree with your 2nd sentence. If he is village and knows he is village, he'd use the power to save himself, or else he is lynched and his power is gone from the game anyway. Not sure how this is different than a self preservation vote against the next top vote getter when you are in the running to get lynched.

I'd say it is different because we didn't get any lynch, the wolves got an extra night kill and we learned absolutely nothing and now have to lynch Grover again at some point.
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Old 04-02-2015, 12:23 PM   #656
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Which reminds me.

Vote Grover

No other option.
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Old 04-02-2015, 12:25 PM   #657
Raven
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Originally Posted by Narcizo View Post
Because no lynch is almost always a result for wolves. Unless he's a seer and can get a scan in. A double lynch is acceptable but obviously not what he was looking for.

Maybe traditionally, but the rules for this game states -

Quote:
Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
[*]Tie votes will be settled by either lynching both parties or lynching neither one. It's unclear which.

Not that he saw that rule and based his decision off of that. I'm saying using his power to save himself is a self preservation move. Allowing himself to be lynched may ultimately be better for the team of villagers, but his neck was on the line and he used his power to save himself. If you say you'd allow yourself to be lynched, when you have the power to save yourself, for the team - I don't believe you. Especially when these games have individual goals at play, and not just team goals.
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Old 04-02-2015, 12:25 PM   #658
Coffee Warlord
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Anyway. Grover? If you turn out to be good...what's your reads on people?
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Old 04-02-2015, 12:28 PM   #659
Raven
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Originally Posted by Narcizo View Post
Nightfall allows results to be found out quicker near end game. Everyone has to nightfall in order for the lynch to go through. No, it doesn't help the village.

Not sure who you were directing that comment at. If it was to me, then I am familiar with all this. Not sure what your last sentence was in reference to.
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Old 04-02-2015, 12:28 PM   #660
Coffee Warlord
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Originally Posted by Raven View Post
Not that he saw that rule and based his decision off of that. I'm saying using his power to save himself is a self preservation move. Allowing himself to be lynched may ultimately be better for the team of villagers, but his neck was on the line and he used his power to save himself. If you say you'd allow yourself to be lynched, when you have the power to save yourself, for the team - I don't believe you. Especially when these games have individual goals at play, and not just team goals.

However.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grover
I have the ability to use my power each night, with a random effect.

So if he's being truthful, he got incredibly lucky with pretty much the only combination of votes and target (me) that would actually save him.
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Old 04-02-2015, 12:28 PM   #661
Narcizo
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Meh. My ping is being pung by Coffee but there are reasons I think voting for him would be sub-optimal all things being equal. Well, reason, anyway.

My votes staying. If you're on the side of light you should try to post your analysis and thoughts Grover.
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Old 04-02-2015, 12:30 PM   #662
Shoveler
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Day 3 Vote

Grover [8] - Narcizo (538), Zinto (542), cheekimonk (550), Grover (562), timmae (568), path12 (571), Glengoyne (651), Coffee Warlord (656)
Timmae [1] - Vaimes (620)
Cheekimonk [1] - Raven (636)

Nightfall [1] - Grover (563)
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Old 04-02-2015, 12:31 PM   #663
Narcizo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raven View Post
Not sure who you were directing that comment at. If it was to me, then I am familiar with all this. Not sure what your last sentence was in reference to.

Glengoyne who asked in the post before.
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Old 04-02-2015, 12:32 PM   #664
Grover
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Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord View Post
However.



So if he's being truthful, he got incredibly lucky with pretty much the only combination of votes and target (me) that would actually save him.

My target on night one was actually Vaimes, who voted for me originally. I was able to change his vote onto cheeki with mine.
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Old 04-02-2015, 12:33 PM   #665
Grover
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With so little out there, it has been pretty hard to try and prove my case as good.

I have strong feelings that Zinto and path12 are wolves. Especially with the strength that they came out with in voting for me today. I generally seem to lean that cheeki is good, though I do have questions about him.

I am on the fence with CW, but could definitely see him being a wolf here.
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Old 04-02-2015, 12:38 PM   #666
Narcizo
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If you're good then I would be shocked if Zinto is bad given the way he's led the charge against you. Wolves are the only ones who know who the other wolves are.
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Old 04-02-2015, 12:41 PM   #667
Grover
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Quote:
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If you're good then I would be shocked if Zinto is bad given the way he's led the charge against you. Wolves are the only ones who know who the other wolves are.

Can you clarify this?

If he knows who the other wolves are, he would actively avoid voting for them, unless it was to try and make a vote look good. Am I right in this thinking?

If he's bad, why not lead a charge on someone who has come out saying what I have? It makes sense to get the village on his side to lynch me. It serves his purpose as a wolf.
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Old 04-02-2015, 12:47 PM   #668
Raven
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Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord View Post
So if he's being truthful, he got incredibly lucky with pretty much the only combination of votes and target (me) that would actually save him.

No. Seems to me (from what he is saying) is that he gets to pick someone to use a power on at night, with a random effect, and then finds out the next day what that effect is. Though Grover may have to confirm this is what he is saying, this is what I think he is saying.

So night 1 he chose someone, and then day 2 found out that he could influence their vote. (I forget who he said he picked).
Then night 2 he chose someone else (you), and on day 3 found out that that person could not be lynched that day.
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Old 04-02-2015, 12:49 PM   #669
path12
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I don't know where else I could go with a vote today. I totally get why you might see that as "after you", but it is based on your own actions.
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Old 04-02-2015, 12:50 PM   #670
path12
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No. Seems to me (from what he is saying) is that he gets to pick someone to use a power on at night, with a random effect, and then finds out the next day what that effect is. Though Grover may have to confirm this is what he is saying, this is what I think he is saying.

So night 1 he chose someone, and then day 2 found out that he could influence their vote. (I forget who he said he picked).
Then night 2 he chose someone else (you), and on day 3 found out that that person could not be lynched that day.

This is how I read what he is saying as well.
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Old 04-02-2015, 12:51 PM   #671
Grover
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No. Seems to me (from what he is saying) is that he gets to pick someone to use a power on at night, with a random effect, and then finds out the next day what that effect is. Though Grover may have to confirm this is what he is saying, this is what I think he is saying.

So night 1 he chose someone, and then day 2 found out that he could influence their vote. (I forget who he said he picked).
Then night 2 he chose someone else (you), and on day 3 found out that that person could not be lynched that day.

This is correct.

I can process my action before 10PM. After the deadline, I find out the effect on the person I targeted.
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Old 04-02-2015, 12:52 PM   #672
path12
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However.



So if he's being truthful, he got incredibly lucky with pretty much the only combination of votes and target (me) that would actually save him.

I missed this. Coffee, are you saying that your vote was switched?
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Old 04-02-2015, 01:03 PM   #673
Grover
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I missed this. Coffee, are you saying that your vote was switched?

If it was, it was not switched by me. I used my channeling on Vaimes for night one. His vote DEFINITELY got switched. Regardless if he knew it or not.
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Old 04-02-2015, 01:07 PM   #674
path12
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If it was, it was not switched by me. I used my channeling on Vaimes for night one. His vote DEFINITELY got switched. Regardless if he knew it or not.

Ah, OK. Vaimes, did you become aware that it was your vote being switched?
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Old 04-02-2015, 01:16 PM   #675
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No.
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Old 04-02-2015, 01:16 PM   #676
Vaimes
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I'm actually kind of flattered I was someone's N1 target.
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Old 04-02-2015, 01:18 PM   #677
cheekimonk
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Just for confirmation that I'm reading the rules correctly, anyone have comments on this that I posted earlier:

Wait, you've said you're Illian but you can also channel AND you could be the Dragon Reborn? I'm fairly certain that makes you a male channeler. That means you are either the Dragon Reborn, a false Dragon, or Forsaken.

Now, of the Forsaken we know "...they were wielders of the Power in the days of Legend, capable of things that are no longer even imagined. They were sealed away when the Dark One was, but not so tightly, and before the Dark One escapes, they will. It is possible one walks the world right now, his abilities so far beyond those of the Aes Sedai that they could stand in front of him and not recognize him."

He's not Aes Sedai because his power would not have "random effects" as he has claimed. Aes Sedai belong to an Ajah which strictly defines their power. He also claims that it was he who switched the vote. That's a power that I can't see any role having outside the Aes Sedai and I don't even see an Ajah that could accomplish such a thing.

Combining the "random effects on anyone" with the ability to swap the vote, these sound like abilities "that are no longer even imagined...". I think Grover is Forsaken.
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Old 04-02-2015, 01:18 PM   #678
Grover
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I'm guessing the person that my spell protected for tonight has no idea that they have been protected. Hopefully, the wolves try to night kill him and get scuppered.
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Old 04-02-2015, 01:20 PM   #679
Grover
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cheekimonk View Post
Just for confirmation that I'm reading the rules correctly, anyone have comments on this that I posted earlier:

Wait, you've said you're Illian but you can also channel AND you could be the Dragon Reborn? I'm fairly certain that makes you a male channeler. That means you are either the Dragon Reborn, a false Dragon, or Forsaken.


I have stated numerous times that I am a male channeler. Hence the wieldy and unknown results to my channeling.
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Old 04-02-2015, 01:24 PM   #680
Coffee Warlord
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Originally Posted by path12 View Post
I missed this. Coffee, are you saying that your vote was switched?

If it was, I wasn't notified.

I was working off my prior, apparently incorrect assumption of how Grover was explaining his power. He had said he targeted me yesterday, I thought that meant I was the one whose vote got changed.
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Old 04-02-2015, 01:25 PM   #681
Grover
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No one else willing to go in on nightfall votes?

The conversation for my survival seems to be smoldering, at best. May as well put me out of my misery.
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Old 04-02-2015, 01:27 PM   #682
Chief Rum
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Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord View Post
If it was, I wasn't notified.

I was working off my prior, apparently incorrect assumption of how Grover was explaining his power. He had said he targeted me yesterday, I thought that meant I was the one whose vote got changed.

Where did he say he targeted you yesterday?
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Old 04-02-2015, 01:28 PM   #683
Chief Rum
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No one else willing to go in on nightfall votes?

The conversation for my survival seems to be smoldering, at best. May as well put me out of my misery.

Putting aside even the conversation of putting someone out of his misery at his own request, I can already guarantee you you won't get a unanimous vote because I refuse on principle to vote Nightfall in this situation.

That is to be used on obvious wolf situations, and definitely not on the target's request.
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Old 04-02-2015, 01:30 PM   #684
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Fair enough.
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Old 04-02-2015, 01:34 PM   #685
Raven
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
Where did he say he targeted you yesterday?

Post #559 he quotes CW and says...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grover View Post
I have the ability to use my power each night, with a random effect.

In fact I used it on you last night.
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Old 04-02-2015, 01:44 PM   #686
Glengoyne
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I read Grover's posts As a claim that he was targeting CW then says that his target probably doesn't know it. Misdirection? Or too many tales to keep straight?
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Old 04-02-2015, 01:46 PM   #687
Chief Rum
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Originally Posted by Glengoyne View Post
I read Grover's posts As a claim that he was targeting CW then says that his target probably doesn't know it. Misdirection? Or too many tales to keep straight?

Well, CW fits his earlier description of his target, but I guess Grover wasn't as interested in keeping that a secret from wolves as he first claimed.

Grover, if you want the wolves to trip up trying to lynch the mystery target of your power, why did you let the world know who the target is?
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Old 04-02-2015, 01:59 PM   #689
Grover
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Misdirection.

I'm not stupid enough to let the wolves know who NOT to lynch.
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Old 04-02-2015, 02:04 PM   #690
Grover
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I'm leaning toward CW being a wolf than anything, to be honest.
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Old 04-02-2015, 02:11 PM   #691
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Ass Sedai.
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Old 04-02-2015, 02:18 PM   #692
Chief Rum
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Ass Sedai.

Umm, Aes Sedai.
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Old 04-02-2015, 02:49 PM   #693
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Nope, nope, I think my previous line was correct.
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Old 04-02-2015, 02:53 PM   #694
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EagleFan [5] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153), cheekimonk (163)
Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151), EagleFan (190)
The Jackal [2] - Zinto (160), fontisian (182)
Grover [2] - path12 (147), Coffee Warlord (170)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)

As a side, final tallies from day 1, knowing what we know.

Zinto looks interesting, and it's more than a little likely that one of the 3 unknowns on timmae is a wolf.
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Old 04-02-2015, 03:32 PM   #695
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Nope, nope, I think my previous line was correct.

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Old 04-02-2015, 03:44 PM   #696
MartinD
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As per my post earlier, I'm not convinced that Grover is of the Shadow, but (as we no longer have a seer) the only way that we can find out for certain is to lynch him.

VOTE GROVER
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Old 04-02-2015, 03:54 PM   #697
Shoveler
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Day 3 Vote

Grover [9] - Narcizo (538), Zinto (542), cheekimonk (550), Grover (562), timmae (568), path12 (571), Glengoyne (651), Coffee Warlord (656), MartinD (696)
Timmae [1] - Vaimes (620)
Cheekimonk [1] - Raven (636)

Nightfall [1] - Grover (563)
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Old 04-02-2015, 04:21 PM   #698
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Wow.

So Raven's probably town.
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Old 04-02-2015, 04:40 PM   #699
Chief Rum
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Where is timmae anyway? Has he posted today and I missed it? He got a lot of Day One interest, and not much on him since.

Not that I am saying he has done anything I find particularly suspicious--it just seems funny to think he was in the running on Day One, and interest in him has now dropped off the map.
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Old 04-02-2015, 04:43 PM   #700
Chief Rum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord View Post
EagleFan [5] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153), cheekimonk (163)
Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151), EagleFan (190)
The Jackal [2] - Zinto (160), fontisian (182)
Grover [2] - path12 (147), Coffee Warlord (170)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)

As a side, final tallies from day 1, knowing what we know.

Zinto looks interesting, and it's more than a little likely that one of the 3 unknowns on timmae is a wolf.

Someone noted the classic wolf tactic to split votes yesterday, and using that, I was particularly interested in Zinto. As we knew that font was a villager, the one unknown on The Jackal (also good) could very well have been a wolf.

Grover is a runaway at this point, so this vote won't get any traction (nor should it), but I am going with Zinto for now.

VOTE ZINTO
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