NFL 2022-23 Season Thread

[21C]

Originally Posted by Ryche

Good article about various QB contracts today in ESPN+ Complicated NFL QB contracts to know: Rodgers, Russell, more

Thanks for that link. There's some good stuff there.

[Carman Bulldog]

I agree with some of what you are saying.

I do have to push back on this narrative that Geno Smith is a running quarterback. He's never been a running QB. That's like referring to Alex Smith as a running QB. Geno is definitely athletic but he's not Lamar, Fields, Hurts, Newton, RGIII, etc., or even Russell Wilson. Geno is still a pocket passer at the end of the day.

I also don't agree with the assessment of Russell Wilson having amazing field vision. In his prime, he had a very strong arm, great deep-ball accuracy and fantastic mobility. But his whole career he's often overlooked passes that were available that he didn't attempt. His ability to find open receivers wasn't a result of field vision as much as it was him running around in the backfield until guys got open. His play has arguably been on the decline since mid-2020.

It does come down to systems, but the success of Wilson in any system, and the ability to create passing windows for him, has always been dependent upon his mobility. He's never shown an ability to sit in the pocket, go through his progressions quickly and dump the ball off. Those were within Brees' skill set.

[Solecismic]

Definitions are tricky. By running quarterback, I mean someone who is always aware that running is a weapon. Someone with good speed (Smith was timed at 4.59 40 at the Combine) and who runs the ball frequently.

I found it most useful to divide quarterbacks into five groups, based on how often they run the ball as a percentage of runs+sacks+pass attempts (kneel-downs removed from all plays). Smith runs the ball 18.0% of the time, which places him on the border of the fourth and fifth quadrants. Wilson is at 19.5%.

These quarterbacks have unusually short careers compared to their peers.

Then you get to the extreme end of the fifth quadrant, and for a long time, that was just Michael Vick (25.5%) when it came to more than 10-20 starts in the league. But now that's been eclipsed by Hurts, Fields, Tebow and Lamar Jackson. Jackson runs the ball 31.3% of those touches, Fields a mind-boggling 34.3%.

So that extreme end now reaches almost twice as frequent run attempts as that borderline, and perhaps it deserves a split of its own somewhere around Randall Cunningham or Cam Newton.

On the lowest end you get the Mannings, Brees, Brady, Marino, Rivers. That's below 8%. Alex Smith is third quadrant at 14.7% - notable peers are Donovan McNabb, John Elway, Joe Burrow. These are more the guys who can run, and often have good athletic skills, but it's not a "looking to run" like that fifth quadrant.

Wilson's vision doesn't come from the mobility alone. Deep passes are very risky and he is elite at avoiding interceptions despite throwing a very high percentage of deep balls. He might be looking for that deep ball too much, but it takes exceptional vision to throw it that often without getting picked.

Brees, since he is as height-challenged as Wilson, and that's very unusual among starting quarterbacks, has been asked a lot about how he sees what's out there. His response is that he developed a sense of how to move around the pocket to create throwing lanes and vision lanes. Wilson can't do that and used his athleticism to create his own sight lines. I would agree he is in decline.

[Atocep]

I would say the biggest difference between Geno and most QBs that are mobile is Geno doesn't like to run. At WVU it took a lot of prodding to get him to use his mobility and even then it wasn't that often. He is credited with 245 rush attempts, but IIRC nearly 100 of those are sacks because he played behind poor pass blocking lines his sophomore and junior seasons.

So when he does run, he rarely does so in situations where he's going to take a hit. It's usually toward the sideline to get OOB or he gets down into his slide pretty early.

[albionmoonlight]

To bolster Jim's point about it being a synergy between team/coaching and QB, the Saints always made of point of investing in top-tier guards during Brees' time. Because Brees was short, the team knew he needed a clean front of the pocket so he could literally see what was happening. They, of course, wanted good tackles as well. But b/c of Brees' quick release, they weren't as essential as top guards (which was nice b/c top guards are cheaper than top tackles).

The QB that reminds me the most of Brees right now is Dak. He wins through quick processing and amazing understanding of what's going on around him. He's more athletic than Brees. And a touch taller. And not quite as accurate. But I think that he's the closest we have to Brees right now.

[albionmoonlight]

dola: To get back to Wilson, it seems like Denver's ownership need to fire the coach and maybe GM. And then 100% of the hiring process for the next coach/GM needs to be a frank discussion of what Wilson does well, what Wilson does poorly and what can we do as a team to lean on the former and make the latter irrelevant.

Financially, they are stuck with him for a few years.

So every single decision they make--from FA signings, to draft, to scheme, to the color they decide to re-paint the locker room has to be made with the idea of "how does this help Russ help us?"

[cartman]

the new team name will be "Denver Broncos Country Let's Ride"

[Ksyrup]

It's funny how they ran so far away from Tebow because it would require them to build an entire offensive scheme around him, and then fast forward 10-12 years, they're effectively in the same situation - with a likely HOF QB.

[stevew]

That Russell TikTok was so bad I need mind bleach.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

It's funny how they ran so far away from Tebow because it would require them to build an entire offensive scheme around him, and then fast forward 10-12 years, they're effectively in the same situation - with a likely HOF QB.

Except that Tebow isn't anywhere near the talent the Wilson is. I mean, at some level, it's worth building a system around a QB if he's good enough. Building a system around me at QB? Not so much.

SI

[Solecismic]

Tebow had many skills, but throwing a ball accurately was not one of them. I don't know how you build a team around that, because if you stop the run and the run option, you might give up some long plays, but you'll also have to deal with drive-killing incompletions and potential interceptions. You were really looking at 4-5 extra incompletions per game simply because of his inaccuracy.

[Ksyrup]

I haven't seen much of the talent Wilson may have left this season. It feels like Wilson may ultimately have as many negatives as someone like Tebow had.

I mean, aside from a few deep balls, it feels like 90% of Wilson's game is check-downs to a RB or TE who is at or behind the LOS. That's it.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Building a system around me at QB? Not so much.

SI

Hear me out. We put you in at Qb, we line up 9 offensive lineman, and then we line Derek Henry up deep behind you.

[Lathum]

Sounds like Antonio Brown is in a stand off with police in Florida over a warrant stemming from a DV complaint.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I haven't seen much of the talent Wilson may have left this season. It feels like Wilson may ultimately have as many negatives as someone like Tebow had.

I mean, aside from a few deep balls, it feels like 90% of Wilson's game is check-downs to a RB or TE who is at or behind the LOS. That's it.

How much are they designing quick hitter routes like slants as the focus of a play? And how much are they trying for slower developing downfield routes vs Russ waiting for those at the expense of other shorter openings? I don't watch the Broncos enough to know, but if you need him throwing shorter routes part of that is X's & O's & part is being able to get your QB to buy in. I don't think Hackett has shown either and I'd still like to see Wilson with a different coach next year before declaring him washed to the Tebow zone.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Hear me out. We put you in at Qb, we line up 9 offensive lineman, and then we line Derek Henry up deep behind you.

You can hand off the ball and then run screaming backwards towards the other end zone legally, right?

SI

[BishopMVP]

Marcus Jones is the greatest WR in NFL history. (By yards per route run.)

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

How much are they designing quick hitter routes like slants as the focus of a play? And how much are they trying for slower developing downfield routes vs Russ waiting for those at the expense of other shorter openings? I don't watch the Broncos enough to know, but if you need him throwing shorter routes part of that is X's & O's & part is being able to get your QB to buy in. I don't think Hackett has shown either and I'd still like to see Wilson with a different coach next year before declaring him washed to the Tebow zone.

This is the kind of the way I look at it as well....yes it sucks to have your QB go gunshy and consistently throw RB check-downs and to players 3 yards out, but the coach/coordinator has to call the plays that explicitly put the players in those positions before Russell can even think about throwing to them. If you've got multiple RB/TE/skill position players that are neither protecting OR running routes beyond the LOS every play maybe that's just it's own obvious issue (which certainly isn't meant as a defense/denial of Wilson's horrible play).

[Honolulu_Blue]

Stafford has gone on IR and the Lions have activated Jameson Williams. Two positive trends for Lions fans.

[Solecismic]

Exciting start to the Browns/Texans. Seven seconds in, a challenge flag. Another five minutes of commercials. Feel like I'm watching a college game.

Challenge confirmed - an interception. And we miss the Texas crowd responding to Watson coming into a game for the first time since the Reagan administration.

They're really not showing much of the crowd at all. I'm wondering if it's embarrassingly empty there. A three-and-out, still 14+ remaining in the first quarter and we're in another full break. Long shot of the Houston open roof - they must not have anyone in the stands at all.

[Brian Swartz]

How is Stafford going on IR a positive?

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

How is Stafford going on IR a positive?

Miserable backup QB situation in Los Angeles, and the Lions own their first pick, which looks like it could rise as high as #2 now.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Being able to get Will Anderson or Jalen Carter would be great.

[albionmoonlight]

AJ Brown just had a TD celebration (though it looks like score will be called back b/c his foot was out of bounds) where he beat the goalpost with a towel and then hugged it. And it was so weird that I’m not sure what he was even trying to communicate.

[albionmoonlight]

If Marcus Mariota were an FOF quarterback, he would have the weirdest mix of bars. He is really good at what he’s really good at. And he is really bad at what he’s really bad at.

[Solecismic]

Every time Kyle Allen throws a pass, an angel throws up his wings and expresses exasperation that there's no hope for football in Houston. Not sure if you can call "tanking" because they still have decent football players who are putting in effort. But I also see no evidence they're trying to win games.

It's 24-8 Cleveland, but the offenses - Houston 6, Cleveland 3. Watson seems more than rusty. That was to be expected.

[cuervo72]

YEAH TIE

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Miserable backup QB situation in Los Angeles, and the Lions own their first pick, which looks like it could rise as high as #2 now.

Not even Denver has anything to say about it!

Lions and Seahawks about to get top 3 picks thanks to trades.

[JPhillips]

Too many mistakes for the Bengals. They've got a real uphill climb to beat the Chiefs.

[B & B]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Being able to get Will Anderson or Jalen Carter would be great.

Yes yes, plz yes.

OTOH if we use this windfall and draft one of the big 3 QBs then go ahead and set the franchise back another 6 years.

Want absolutely nothing to do with Stroud (Hou) Young or Levis.

Plenty of developmental QBs that will go 4th round or longer.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Miserable backup QB situation in Los Angeles, and the Lions own their first pick, which looks like it could rise as high as #2 now.

Thank you, that makes sense. I thought there was a ... less practical reason behind it.

[Ksyrup]

Mr. Irrelevant thrown into a playoff race.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Not sure if you can call "tanking" because they still have decent football players who are putting in effort. But I also see no evidence they're trying to win games.

Alternatively, this is how you do tanking really, really well.

[stevew]

I was convinced B. Purdy was some AI generated create a player.

[Ksyrup]

He was a decent player at Iowa State. Took over the job early in his freshman season and started the rest of his career.

His brother Chubba flipped from Louisville to FSU as one of Norvell's first signing class, but he never did much of anything and transferred to Nebraska.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Mr. Irrelevant thrown into a playoff race.

Hard to believe they won't find someone with experience to step in here. Be a cool story if he does well though.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Hard to believe they won't find someone with experience to step in here. Be a cool story if he does well though.

Who though? Trade deadline is passed.

Get Fitzpatrick to come out of retirement?

Blake Bortles?

These are the names at the top of the "not currently on a roster" list. All of the non "are you kidding?" names are currently holding clipboards on teams right now.

It really sucks that a Super Bowl caliber team lost its top 2 QBs this season. But I don't see what's out there that's not better than what they have.

[albionmoonlight]

dola: Maybe bring in Drew Brees or Philip Rivers for a workout?

Their bodies could not hold up for a full season. But for a playoff run? Maybe? Probably not. Is it worth the distraction of a workout?

[stevew]

Mayfield just got cut. Probably the best of the rest.

[Solecismic]

They could probably ask, but it's rare that someone with that kind of experience would be in shape, be able to learn enough playbook. And even if that's the case, the cap gyrations would be significant. Not much season left, but teams are only carrying a few million in cap space right now.

They signed Josh Johnson off of Denver's practice squad. Purdy was OK, but the Dolphins had zero film of him. It takes 2-3 weeks of full film for an opponent to get a good read on what a quarterback is doing and who he is.

They also had snagged Jacob Eason (fourth rounder out of Washington a couple of years ago) from someone's practice squad in recent weeks. And they have Kurt Benkert on their practice squad as well. So they have plenty of guys learning the book.

Since Carolina is out of it and they've seen enough of Mayfield to know they don't want to sign him long-term, might as well cut him in time to possibly hook on elsewhere. I wouldn't rule it out.

Mayfield did Carolina a favor by agreeing to a pay cut to make the trade with Cleveland possible so that he'd get a shot at starting. He did that in good faith, and it didn't go well. So the Panthers will do what they can to make sure he has another shot if he's going to get one. It's possible they communicated with someone. Perhaps Baltimore, which only has one completely inexperienced body on the practice squad, no third guy up on the roster, and we don't know how bad Lamar Jackson's knee injury was. They'll go with Tyler Huntley because he knows the system and did well yesterday. But they will be signing someone this week.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

He was a decent player at Iowa State. Took over the job early in his freshman season and started the rest of his career.

His brother Chubba flipped from Louisville to FSU as one of Norvell's first signing class, but he never did much of anything and transferred to Nebraska.

He was one of those guys that got on the map as a freshman and seemed to stick around forever. He came in for Iowa St. in their 5th game of the year, beat back-to-back ranked teams (I remember it well because WVU was undefeated and #6 at midseason) and went like 7-1 in his first 8 starts.

He had a decent amount of hype early in his career and was a good college starter. but never really got to the 'next level' when the team had expectations to win the conference (lost to Louisiana to start the 2020 season and then barely beat Northern Iowa before losing to mighty, mighty Iowa to start the 2021 season), so his star kind of faded despite having pretty good numbers and Iowa State having historical levels of success.

He seems like the kind of guy that Parcells would have drafted and liked back in the pre- and early free agency years.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Mayfield did Carolina a favor by agreeing to a pay cut to make the trade with Cleveland possible so that he'd get a shot at starting. He did that in good faith, and it didn't go well. So the Panthers will do what they can to make sure he has another shot if he's going to get one. It's possible they communicated with someone. Perhaps Baltimore, which only has one completely inexperienced body on the practice squad, no third guy up on the roster, and we don't know how bad Lamar Jackson's knee injury was. They'll go with Tyler Huntley because he knows the system and did well yesterday. But they will be signing someone this week.

I hadn't considered it, but Mayfield to the Ravens might be fun if Jackson is out for more than a game or two. The Ravens play 4 out of their remaining 5 games against AFC North teams and Mayfield should still be pretty familiar with them (including one with the Browns).

[miami_fan]

These are two bad teams.

[Solecismic]

On one hand, Tampa Bay has only scored more than 22 points once this season (same game they gave up more than 27 for the only time). And they're 6-6 and seemingly destined for a first-round playoff exit (right now, they'd draw Dallas, which they beat in week 1).

They trailed, 16-3, with five minutes to play.

On the other hand, at this point, Brady went 14-19-118-2-0, not including a 44-yard pass interference call and two offensive holding calls, one of which nullified another touchdown pass.

Strange game.

[thesloppy]

That game was something alright. It nearly drove me into a coma with the first 57 minutes, so I was not at all prepared for the last 3.

[albionmoonlight]

Letting go of a head coach after one season (unless it is an Urban Meyer level disaster) is what dysfunctional franchises do. So I don't want the Saints to fire Dennis Allen.

But this team is sloppy and undisciplined. And that comes back to coaching.

I also don't know if Kamara is injured or mentally checked out or what. But he's a shell of himself right now. I think (though I might be wrong) that his dead cap makes it hard to trade him this offseason. But if it is possible, I'd look into it if I were the Saints FO.

[albionmoonlight]

dola: Basically, this season is over. And I'd be fine eating some money in 2023 in order to pretty much treat that as a get-the-house-in-order season and come back in 2024 with draft picks.

[Ksyrup]

The Saints and Broncos are very similar this year - disappointing seasons for which another team is going to reap the 1st round benefits - but at least the Saints don't have a 5-7 year albatross around their necks.

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

The Saints and Broncos are very similar this year - disappointing seasons for which another team is going to reap the 1st round benefits - but at least the Saints don't have a 5-7 year albatross around their necks.

Is this a disappointing season for the Saints? They certainly didn't look like a playoff team at any point.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I hadn't considered it, but Mayfield to the Ravens might be fun if Jackson is out for more than a game or two. The Ravens play 4 out of their remaining 5 games against AFC North teams and Mayfield should still be pretty familiar with them (including one with the Browns).

Wasn't that Quik's idea for the team (or a similar running team)? Just keep throwing running quarterbacks into the gristmill?